A nd welcome to the Whitehaven September Quarter 2021 production report. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the floor to Mr. Paul Flynn, MD and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody, and thanks very much for taking the time to dial into the September Quarterly Production Report for Whitehaven Coal. I understand today's a busy day, so I'm just going to walk straight into the report and move into the Q&A. So for us, first quarter for this new financial year, off to a very solid start. I'll just quickly run through the highlights for you. September quarter, you can see the volume of run-of-mine coal was at 5.2, production at managed level. Managed saleable coal production at 4.7. In terms of coal sales, managed coal sales at 4.6, managed own coal sales at 4.2, the equity level at 3.9 and 3.4 respectively. Healthy stocks taking into the December quarter was a positive thing.
We've had no cases of COVID in our business at all, which is a fantastic thing to be able to continue to say to you, and no change to funds required. That segues into safety. Safety numbers at 5.9, that's a solid result, and certainly the trend is better moving into this year. And thus had a very good time safety-wise, in fact, its first quarter with no recordable injuries. That's a very positive thing. And then Tarrawonga has had 1,000 days free of Lost Time injuries. In terms of COVID, as I mentioned, there are no cases for us, which is fabulous. And we have launched an incentive program to ensure our people are vaccinated, and that's moving well. Takeoff through the summer has been very good.
But the regions are lagging and the state average more generally, and so we are taking a cautious approach to how we moderate the various hygiene and distancing measures that we have in place. So they will probably last longer than what we'll apply for the state average-related measures. Over the page, just in terms of the tons there, you can see the totals here at 5.2 versus 4.4 at the managed ROM level and managed sale as you can see there, 4.7 versus 4.8. Sales of produced coal, 4.2 versus 5.2, [audio distortion] different period- on- period. Managed coal sales for purchased coal, 4.20 versus 4.17. So pretty consistent with what I've already said before. We've got solid stocks moving into this December quarter, which, as you know, does have a change out for PWCS, so that will be a positive thing.
I'm sure everyone will be interested in the realizations table that we've put in here, and certainly interesting points. I'll just go through some of the key metrics here for you. The average for the quarter for our normal coal at $168, that's the index. Our realizations at $142 is two years down. Consistent on what we've mentioned previously with our guidance for the year's first six months, we will have mid-CV sales of 20% in the first six months, moving to essentially a gC NEWC coverage in the second six months of the year. So that's consistent with the previous guidance. The JSM pricing for semi-soft at $149 in terms of our realizations at $134, so there's 50% down.
The average semi-soft spot price at $178 is really there just for a reason of value only, I think, given that we're not selling spot tons on the semisoft market as a general rule. And in fact, the semisoft prices have quite a bit also, at $287, but we're not seeing much physical demand behind that number, but it is obviously unshackled given that the prime global hard coke price has now moved northward. Just over on the next page, in terms of sales, our sales, as I say, down on the previous quarter, but doing nicely and off to a solid start for our year. We do have a heavily weighted sales program for Narrabri, bringing the point of difference, I suppose, in terms of period-on-period movements into the December quarter.
As you'll know, in the quarter we had previously, we brought a little stock into Narrabri, and the quality of that stock was outside of the range we normally expect for Narrabri. So we've held off a little bit there, and there'll be further blending in sales to clear that out in this next quarter. So don't expect to carry any of that coal into the second half of the year. gC NEWC, you can see 167, and there was a 54% increase on the June quarter. So very strong underlying market that we're in. And whilst the quarter experiences the lags as we've talked about, and I'm sure some of the session will focus on that again, the lag is a lag, and you will get it. It's just a matter of the passage of time in that regard.
So that 142 average across during that quarter, that's a pretty solid result. So we've got some statistics here, of course. We've got sales which are priced at metrics preceding the period that we're in, and that's 57% of our total book does that. And then you've also got, as we mentioned, mid-CV sales, which are priced at levels below the 6,000 level. We've brought out that metric for you again. Again, that's the first half phenomenon. The second half of the year will be typified by gC NEWC average quality profile, which will be good to see. Onto the mines. Oh, sorry, met coal sales are quite low, as you would imagine, and it's really just a point of reference. Despite that semi-soft price that I quoted being very high, we're not seeing much physical interest in that.
Certainly, we're not chasing sales at all given the small price dynamic that we're experiencing. Met coal is the first foot forward into this new year in solid fashion. So little to see there in that regard, 2.94 versus 1.97. So that's a very good result there. We are signaling to you, of course, and I do think we have a potential between how the 2 million tons per annum ROM limit is applied to us on a calendar basis versus the financial year formula that we're using. So there is a constraint in terms of what the December quarter will deliver, and that's the 2.6 that we've quoted here for you. Stocks are solid there, so we've got good stocks to cover the period when Narrabri is out. Narrabri has got stocks as well for this pending change-out period during this next quarter.
Maules Creek is off to a very good start in this year. Narrabri has had a very solid start to the year, and that's very pleasing to see that tons there are 1.5 versus 1.6 in the previous corresponding period. That's been very positive for us. We have seen our sales are weighted into the second quarter, and so you'll see that bounty, if you like, in cash in the next three months as we've got stocks there at 900,000 tons, which is up. But as I say, that's just indicative of the fact that we came into it with very little stocks as a result of that bump period through the preceding quarters. We've built stocks, and sales will move over the next three months, clearing out all the remnants of that sub-spec quality that we've got there. We're satisfied.
We've got very little left of this panel to go, in fact, and we're satisfied that there's nothing else to observe structure-wise in the panel, and certainly, in 110A, having done the geosketching through the year, and 110B will be done over the ensuing months. Complete will start in that first quarter of calendar 2022, so Q3, F1 of 2022, and we have commenced the mains during this quarter as well for the 200 series, which is positive. The calendar overview, that's not a lot to see here. The calendar has had also a pretty decent start to the year. Tarrawonga is actually quite consistent with where we wanted it to be. Whereas our plan there for the first quarter was always going to be a little bit more dirt-focused than coal-focused, both tons and sales have been in line with our plan, which is positive.
So those numbers I'll leave for everyone to digest. There's nothing particularly exciting to see in either of those. As you know, we are washing more coal at Tarrawonga in particular. And so, as I say, in the second half of the year, you'll see a broader SCoTA average. That is important blend stock across our business that we want to use. And so there is a little bit more washing involved in this year, as we previously discussed. From the logistics perspective, it's just to note that we are now back at full capacity in terms of our ability to move tons through the logistics chain. That's very good. There are some queues that, of course, have been at PWCS, but that will be unwound. And as far as NCIG goes, we're back in the normal rhythm of our deliveries there.
I'll scoot across the development projects because there's not a lot to identify here. Narrabri Stage Three is in. We are waiting on the whole of the government report there. And certainly, we're pushing hard to see that they can convene an IPC hearing this side of Christmas, which would be ideal for us timing-wise. We do have plenty more time available, but just to keep the ball rolling, we want to make sure that everything's squeezed into the agenda here for Christmas. Vickery, as you know, was approved by the Federal Minister, which is very positive. And so we're just continuing to do more work associated with that and waiting for the expiration of periods for appeals and otherwise to move on. But Winchester South, the exhibition period has closed, and so just working with the government on that now, which is very good to see.
No change in trajectory there on Winchester South. Over to the market. Look, the market's very strong, as you all know, so I'm sure that's going to be a topic of discussion for the Q&A. It's very tight across every customer jurisdiction that we're looking at. We're seeing some extraordinary prices in individual jurisdictions because of the physical constraints, be that China, thermal coal, or look at the Indonesian coal prices they're achieving. I mean, those two are obviously heavily correlated. You've got some supply issues contextually in each jurisdiction that we look at when they're constrained. There's South Africa. You've had that fire in one of the ports in Russia. We've had flooding to overcome in Indonesia, adding some further tightness to an already tight market, and as I said, each of our customers' economies are lifting without seeing customers asking for more tons to be brought forward.
Certainly, the tendering action that we're seeing at the moment is very strong and looks both well for not just a very good balance of this financial year, but I think if everyone looks at the supply constraints and the demand lift overall, I think it points to robust settings from the supply demand, especially for the next couple of years. So it's a very good environment to be coal mining at the moment, despite various other commentaries around the place. So at the moment, our focus here is to continue to deliver, put the balance sheet in the position that we were unable to do during the last 18 months during COVID. So that is happening quickly, and these robust coal prices are accelerating the impact of that. So that's pretty much the quarter. Looks a good start for the first quarter of the year. Very pleasing.
Conscious of the need for people to move on to other things today. So with that, I might just hand back to the operator and get the Q&A started.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please put up the handset to ask a question. Your first question comes from Rahul Anand with Morgan Stanley Australia. Please go ahead.
Hi, Paul and Kevin. Thanks for the opportunity. Two quick ones for me. Look, the first one is something that's been talked about before. But if we think about the quarter and logistics situation at the moment, it makes sense that Maules goes to about 2.6 million tonnes next quarter, gives you a bit of time to draw down stocks. But should we start thinking about 15 million tonnes per annum approvals now rather than waiting for AHS? And perhaps, what are some of the critical elements and hurdles that you need to jump from an approval perspective from the government? That's the first one.
Thanks, Rahul. Yeah, look, it's nice to be able to have 16 minutes with this pricing backdrop, no doubt about it. But that is a significant approval modification for us and requires quite a bit of study, which we're doing as we speak on all the important aspects of increasing the intensity of mining there. So noise, dust, water, you name it. It all requires a lot of work. So we've simply done as much as we'd like to do that. And of course, we've got other things in the pipeline that Narrabri's stage three and also Vickery as well, which our judgment was not to complicate matter by asking for that at the time. It is, as you pointed out, in our view, the upside here is correlated with the success of AHS.
Our view is that further demand or further mechanical intensity in our pit runs the risk of being counterproductive. And so our view is that we need to extract, in order to go bigger, we need to extract more out of existing infrastructure we have. So that's our preference, sir. So there's no short-term, unfortunately for you, Rahul, answer in the specific time frame, which is a couple of years from here.
Okay, perfect. And look, one quick follow-up on the logistics side. Obviously, the shipments delays that you have this quarter, and you still have high stocks. Perhaps if you'd remind us, what are the normalized stock levels that we should look for? And then when do you think you can get there with the third quarter of the fiscal being the appropriate time to start looking at those stocks to be drawn down, given there's maintenance coming up at PWCS as well?
Yeah, for us, we'd certainly like to take our stocks down. Well, it depends on how you look at product stocks. We don't like to be less than a million tonnes. So on the product side of things, ROM stocks, we can take with obviously quite a bit more than that. But I would have said we'd like to bring down at least a million tonnes out of this coal, maybe 1.5 million out of the current position. And obviously, prices look very good, and let's convert that into cash. Now, there's different contextual things here. With Narrabri, there's obviously the quality differentials. Fresh coal coming out of the pit now is really good for blending that poorer stuff up that we carried into the year up. So that's positive for us.
Maules Creek's well sold, so we don't actually have a lot of blend stock available internally in the business as well. But we do have good stocks there, but we are producing at the same rate we're processing, which is a high-quality problem. We are looking at initiatives to try and draw down further stocks from our ROM stocks during the next six to nine months. That's certainly—and we're talking about the cash to crush and so on and screen. Looking at those initiatives, we want to bring it down by, say, 1 million to 1.5 million and convert that obviously into cash in a good pricing environment.
Okay. Final question, perhaps, for Kevin. Obviously, we've talked about in this quarterly that you're looking to tie down your debt and have that net cash position soon. Is it fair to assume that we've now defined for our mature business, perhaps for Whitehaven Coal and current producing assets, that your target net debt for that part of the business is solidly the net cash position? And only under growth scenarios are you going to take on incremental debt? And what kind of target net debt would you stretch to in that scenario?
Rahul, I think you've read the memo. I think the balance sheet is net cash. I think the only time we get into a net debt position is at the bottom of the cycle if things haven't gone terribly well. And by that, I mean you'd have not the revolver. You would have something like a leasing and ECA facilities that don't have any refinance risk. That would be where the net debt comes from. I think we put a note in there that said we'd be up to two times on a through-the-cycle basis, two times levered on a through-the-cycle basis. We look at the numbers and say, if you look at the EBITDA over the last five years, it's been about $3.3 million, $3.4 million. So that tells you that on a five-year cycle, it's around about $600 million.
So at worst, I think we would be two times levered on a net debt basis through an acquisition. I can't see us doing that through an expansion because of the cash that's generated in the business. So for me, that's the real outlier, Rahul. It's not something we're targeting. It's just saying, what's the boundary limits?
Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. We'll pass it on.
Thanks, Rahul.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Paul Young with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Paul, and good morning, Kevin. A couple of questions. First one on the thermal market. I mean, the plans have completely aligned here and that the outlook is very positive on a three-to-four-month view, and you said that in your report. Just curious about the fixed or the tenders from some of the Asian customer base at the moment, particularly Taiwan, Japan, for those reasonably large volumes. Can you just talk through how you've been able to capture that, participate in that, and actually have you been able to look in any sort of fixed-price, high-price contracts for the next 12 months?
Yeah, look, we've had good activity right across all our markets. We're calling out obviously the Koreans and the Taiwanese. They've been obviously active for some time, not just because we think they were short in this current year, but certainly now preparing themselves for the new year more surely. So we have been able to, well, we've got multiple requests even from Japan to bring coal forward. So that's problematic given that we are well sold, as we've said. But we have been able to take advantage of some of these new sales in the new year, for sure, and even some tactical ones in the next few months. The prices are pretty much indicative of what you're seeing in the forward curve when we've taken those tactical opportunities. But yeah, look, I mean, the price lag is the price lag.
The lag will be a benefit if it doesn't disappear just through the passage of time. It just takes a little while longer to come to fruition in your bank balance, but it will come. Trying to lock in sales out into the new year is not easy. Customers are very cautious at the moment. They also see the opportunity to take some time hoping for a moderation, but they're obviously hoping for the reverse. We're actively discussing it with customers who are sensitive to this and looking at opportunities to lock in sales based on the forward curve, which is obviously pretty good. We're doing that, but I won't go so far as to quote prices and things, but we're certainly looking very positive, and we are minded to try and lock something in as we see this market flatten out.
Yeah. Thanks, Paul. I mean, just related to that, so what percentage of sales can you contract on the forward curve? And how far are you talking about now that liquidity-wise that you can actually lock that away?
Our focus on this, rather than synthetically or doing it through derivatives, is actually with the customers. So for instance, we've won some tons with some of our customers which have an average price point each year, say for next calendar year. And those prices are looking very good relative to the realizations we're seeing today. So that volume that we're doing that with, they're in the 5% sort of level, and we'll try and increase that. Generally, our fixed prices, if you like, on average, is about 30% that we go into a particular year in terms of on a running revolving basis of 30%. So we want to elevate that a little bit further. So there are opportunities to do that at this time, and obviously that would be beneficial because all those prices that we're talking about are above the realizations we've just put in.
Okay. Thanks, Paul. And a question for you, Kevin, on paying down the senior debt facility and where that leaves you on facilities. I mean, fantastic outcome that you can retire that early, but just wondering now, where does that leave you on available liquidity or facilities, I should say? And are you looking to add another facility, and what form would that be?
Yeah, Paul, the $1 billion facility that's there remains on foot until July 2023, so it's paid down and undrawn. We said at the full year that we'd have a look at the debt capital markets. As you'd be aware, I think the China property market's probably put the frighteners on that at the moment. So I think we're waiting to see how that plays out. Pleasingly, when you look at the balance sheet, being net cash second half takes all the pressure off that, and if you go to a market with a net cash position, you're actually going to be providing an investment-grade credit metrics and an investment-grade balance sheet to what's probably a double B credit. So it should be supportive, is really what I'm saying. So we'll be patient. We'll be there, and we'll get it done, but we want to wait for the right market.
Got it. Thank you. So just to confirm, that means that that facility, which is set for July 2023, you might be looking to replace that before that?
I think we'd look to replace it somewhere between now and the second half of 2022, of course. And I think the other side of that is we'd probably serve to reduce. I mean, if we step into the market, we will reduce the existing revolver from an AUD 1 billion facility, almost dollar for dollar on whatever we raise in another market.
Okay. Great. All right. Thank you, gents.
Thank you. The next question comes from Peter O'Connor with Shaw & Partners. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Paul. Kevin. Kevin's following along the theme. So are you saying the U.S. bond markets are closed because of Evergrande? And/or is it an ESG pushback, or are they completely separate issues, and are you getting a welcome from the U.S. bond market despite your coal company?
Yeah, Rocky? That's a really good question. My answer for you is that I don't think the markets are closed. They're just not the place that you want to be in when you look at the current moment and see the business is in rude health. So I think the ESG, our view here is that the Asian debt capital markets will provide the funding for Asian resources for the decades to come, and that business, we expect that to grow and expand over the next decade. So that's really why we want to try and put a foot in that somewhere in this next period.
There's no doubt the current property market sort of influence on that definitely has muddied the waters a little bit.
It certainly has. I mean, spreads in that double B, spreads in the U.S. market really haven't moved much at all. Sorry, Rocky? I mean, the spreads in the double B market in Asia are probably up 200 basis points in six weeks.
Okay. So you've got time on your side, and you've got a market that will take your paper and rates are reasonable given that backdrop whenever you do that?
We're expecting it's going to be really reasonable, and we're expecting to be well received there.
Okay. Great. Paul, back to the premium discount trend. Congratulations on getting much better realizations, I think, for conservative you and consistent lagging, so well done. The lag to the JSM quarterly benchmark price, that was 149 versus your booking 134. You mentioned you're not selling spot. So the differential between those two in the September quarter is what?
Oh, actually, I don't have that number for you. I mean, our sales, as you can see, are very low on the met side of things. And the aggregate of that is PCI and semi-soft, of course. And so the pricing structures associated with the PCI are different from that associated with the semi-soft. So you can pretty much halve that and see the impact of the JSM quarterly price on us. Obviously, on a look-back basis, you're going to see the next development look a lot better. And so part of our business is relative to current pricing is underwhelming, right? But with the price at what, 280? I think it's 280-something.
87?
87 today, Paul 287
287? Yeah, that looks quite incredible, but then we've gone in and had a look at that, and just to see what substance sits behind that, it doesn't look like there's physical substance there of any size or duration, and I really think it's just unshackled, as I said earlier, because the PLV price is obviously another $ 120 higher, and so we're watching it very closely, but we're not chasing those sales. If there were sales there for that sort of number, we would look at doing something. Otherwise, the thermal market is a better place for us with its premiums.
Paul, back to the coal-based logistics. If I read your report correctly, it seems like you were mapping out a delayed report because of weather and the maintenance in the December quarter for PWCS. Is that telling me there won't be the pull-through of working capital that you may have otherwise hoped for, or is that just following a more cautious backdrop?
No, no. Sorry. Our apologies if we need to interpret that from the way we've written it. No, no. We've got no issue whatsoever getting coal through and converting those stocks into cash. None at all. So we're just observing the physical dimensions of what's ahead, and Rahul's already noted the PWCS outage. But no, that's not going to constrain us in any way to convert this stock into cash.
Yeah. The only thing I'd probably say to you, though, is have a think about this. We have roughly the same tonnage, but we've got four times the price. You're going to see a little movement in the debtors in working capital, but that's a two-week exercise.
Yeah.
Okay. And last one on Maules Creek , JV partner sales, any comments on that progress?
No, no change there at all. I'm not sure where that's up to, to tell you the truth, Peter. It's ongoing, but I'm not sure what the process looks like at all here. It's been very quiet.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Glyn Lawcock with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Hey, Paul. Hey, Kevin. How are you?
I'm well, thanks. That's a good little introduction, Barrenjoey. Haven't heard that yet. Welcome back.
There you go. Thank you.
Congratulations.
A little bit more in-depth on the pricing, if I should. You sort of talked a bit about you've got 65% high CV and 23% other. What do you actually classify as high CV? Is that anything above 6,000?
Yeah. Meaning the SCoTA bit. So if we're meeting SCoTA, the bottom end of that is actually 58. So we're putting anything above that up to obviously 63, a little bit more in our case, into that market.
Okay. So I understand all the lags and everything. So what about the premiums? You stopped disclosing the premiums you're getting from JSMs and that kind of thing in the report. Are you still getting any premiums, cash premiums, and how are they? Because I guess it is a bit, I can understand the 23%. I guess that's what you say is getting the big discounts. But I'm just trying to understand how you're going to get the premiums, and when do we actually see if the index goes sideways? How long do you think it would take for us to get, if at all, to say where we were a year ago with the index?
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Look, in the second half of the year, we will be getting the index. So those mid-CV sales will be out of our sales basis in the second half of the year, entering the last quarter. It's up to the premium side of things. Yes, energy, sorry, we haven't referenced that. Yes, you're right. But the energy premiums and benefits are certainly coming through. 5%, we usually have that in there. And then the premiums themselves on top of the qualitative aspects of the coal, coal that in the $24 and $60 to $65 dollar range.
Okay. Yeah. And if we look at the met side of the business, I think you're very clear in your opening remarks, "We're not selling coal on the semi-soft coking coal market." What do you mean by that? You're not selling it just today or never?
In the spot market, we're not a spot seller of semi-soft. And of course, up until very recently, that spot market has been a lot less than a thermal coal product. Generally, we've not been doing that for some years now, as we've talked about, that the semi-soft demand has been relatively weak. So we haven't been doing that. So I referenced that earlier on was really just that, just to say that I know that the spot semi-soft price is high now. That's only a recent development. We've looked behind it. There isn't a lot of physical substance to it. And while that's the case, we're not chasing individual semi-soft sales. The better economic answer is to continue to deliver the high-quality thermal with its premiums.
So telling us what the semi-soft index is, what's the benefit if we don't sell against it? Because at the moment, it's pretty bad getting 25% discount to it when it doesn't actually reference it in your business.
Yeah. That's right. It's just for information purposes only. As I say, that's what I noted, that we're actually not selling relative. People ask us what it is.
Okay. All right. I might take that question a bit more, and then just one final question, please. Just with the project, obviously the backdrop is very good at the moment. How do you feel about the timing now? I mean, are you feeling compelled to push ahead, or are you actually feeling now you should just wait? Just wondering how your views changed over the last few months.
Yeah. Look, our views haven't changed over the last few months in this regard. Obviously, the market's very tight. So our focus has, as you know, been to get the balance sheet work done. That work has much delayed over the last 18 months that we've had. So we want to get that work done. We've only just recently received the Federal Government IPC approval for the enlarged Vickery project. There is, obviously, that's not the answer, obviously, that the naysayers wanted. And so we're aware of some movement in that regard to question the minister's approval in that sense. So in the meantime, we're continuing to look at the project both from a planning perspective, from a capital perspective, and an OpEx perspective.
So we've said that we're unlikely to take that project to FID within the 18 months time, and that remains true.
Eighteen months from when? It's not going to make that comment in the last six months or in a way?
Back in June.
In June?
Yeah.
In August, actually.
Okay.
Yeah. It was actually two and a half years. Four-year numbers, sorry.
Okay. And do you need to change your mind? i.e., a customer coming forward and offering to buy equity in the project? Would that accelerate your view, or you can't accelerate that much regardless?
I think 18 months is pretty much best in our thinking around this. If someone turned up and said, "We'd like to have-" well, firstly, someone turning up with legal shenanigans and going on, that's unlikely. But the 18 months in our mind, in terms of getting the company ready for that, there are planning scenarios that go with that. Moving to the construction phase, getting the workforce mobilized, that'll take some time.
Okay. That's great. Thanks, Paul.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Stuart Howe with Bell Potter Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, Paul. Thanks. You just put one of them around the Vickery project, and I'm wondering about the sell-down process. I know that we've basically sort of sold down there more recently, but is that ongoing? And I guess, given recent markets, is there potential that you're selling more than the minority stake in that? Could that be some part of a dilutive investment process?
Yeah. Thanks, Stuart. Look, we haven't been actively discussing this, to tell you the truth, with potential buyers. The whole COVID period over the last 18 months has been certainly, and we've had discussions with potential players in this field. They've told us that they're distracted with other things, understandably. So it hasn't been a point of focus for them, and we've just kept it alive and kept them informed as to what's gone on with various approvals-related developments. And obviously, we welcome the federal approval, but we just will get ourselves past the time of the appeals process before we re-enliven those discussions. The backdrop for those discussions are also a bit awkward, obviously, with 26, yeah, this month, and various countries making statements around what they may or may not aspire to do over the next 20 years.
but we've played it cool on that, and we'll get past this hurdle and then move on to see which of these players are actually real or not.
Fair enough. And I'm just getting your comments around net cash by March quarter, and I realize we're almost there. But I'm just wondering what sort of price assumptions you've assumed moving forward for that expectation, following a certain curve, or is it nice to stay where they are? And then more broadly, on the thermal coal market, it seems that a few of the things that have caused it to be so strong, whether it's the combined disruptions in places like Indonesia or building of inventories ahead of winter, they're rather seasonal or temporary in nature. So I just. This is as good as we get for thermal coal markets. I'm just interested in your comments around that.
Yeah. So the target that we've given, our prediction was sort of end of March, April. That wasn't off the forward curve. That was off our own internal estimates. The forward pricing would imply that today would see that accelerate, which is a good thing. So we think it will come forward, which is nice to be able to say that. You're right. There are a few short-term influences on the supply side in a couple of different jurisdictions. I'm told that the flood impact in Indonesia is looking better, and their internal redirection of sales to satisfy the internal needs on coal, that's also been taken care of. So I don't expect too much extra tension coming out of there.
But obviously, the floods in China have caused some issues, and Indonesia's ability to try and meet some of that demand, to try and meet some of that void, is relatively constrained from what I'm told. So that's the good things. I mean, the fire that I'm sure you've all seen the reports on in terms of a South African port and in Russia, which supplies into Korea and Taiwan, that's a relatively modest port. All these things add up. I mean, that port's probably going to ship 20 to 25 million tonnes per annum. So they do add up. That'll take at least a month, maybe a couple of months to get themselves out there. And of course, winter's coming, and Russian coals are much used, too, in winter for some jurisdictions in any event. So yeah, it's providing more tightness at this point.
I guess on the downside, a restocking event can feel like it's much stronger than what the underlying market is. What are your thoughts around that?
Well, I think if you look at each of these economies, we're all trying to step out of the drama that COVID created, and government stimulus is obviously the main tool that's driving that, and so I think it's not just restocking; it's actually re-enlivening economies, and so restocking is just a short-term thing generally, but the ongoing stimulus that seems to be present in the market in each of the economies that we deal with, and probably the economies across the world, because you can see energy all over the world is just being pulled in high demand, and people are trying to re-enliven their economies. That's going to continue on for some time.
All right. Thanks very much, guys.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Alex Ren, with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi, Paul, Kevin and Sarah. Congrats on another solid quarter, so I guess my first question, the first one is your estimated result. There was definitely over AUD 80 million roughly free cash flow generated over the first eight weeks, so I was sort of looking forward to a similar disclosure as a quarterly. Yeah. Could you give us some color on the level of free cash flow you're generating these days in the first 10 months?
Yeah. You know, Alex, that's a pretty easy question to answer because we started the year with AUD 809 million in debt, and we expect to be net cash in about eight months in. So the short answer is we're punching out about, over the first six months, about AUD 100 million a month. If that coal price stays where it currently is, that number gets a little bit bigger through this period from December through to about March. So it's a pretty good period to be here.
Yeah. Great. And also, Paul, how do we think about working capital? Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've got prices still going up, and hopefully, it can go up higher. And there's also a different level of inventory pulled out. So is that reasonable for us to assume a healthy working capital line over the next six months?
Yeah. Alex, this is a really, you have to get into the details here, and I'm going to bore a few people, but be with me. We're paying creditors and we're paying suppliers on the same basis. That doesn't change. Right? We've got stocks which have costed roughly the same cost. That cost isn't going to change other than for volume changes. The real question there is we're now selling coal compared to fiscal year 2021. We're now selling coal at that $200-and-something dollar mark. And so our receivables for the same volume of coal trapped in a receivable, the numbers are going to be higher. But as I said earlier, that's typically a two-week issue because our payment terms on thermal coal are really short. Our payment terms on met coal are a little bit longer, but there's not that big volume in the met coal there.
So I've been thinking we're going to have a build in receivables, but I'm not losing too much sleep on it because I know I get it in 14 days. Does that make sense?
Yep. Thank you very much. And lastly, our first question on general market dynamics and your response to countries including India, which is a coal trade. What would be the impact of this to prices, particularly in India? Are you seeing them actively seeking more imports?
I think they're all doing the same things at the moment. I think that's what comes with Alex at the moment. Everybody's doing the same thing. They're all short. They all need more. But again, this comes back to this broader issue about the whole energy complex is in the same boat in that regard. Everybody wants more as they're all trying to lift, and so I think this is going to go on for a while, and there's not a lot of supply response. I mean, that's the biggest feature of this roughness of this correction in this particular cycle. I think it's the fact that between this one and the last, there wasn't a material supply response.
And so that's made the correction here, if you like, the movements more aggressive as a result of just not having the additional supply being brought on from the last point in time. So that's a positive thing, obviously, for current pricing.
Yeah. Absolutely. Got it. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Alex.
Thank you. We have reached our allocated time for questions. I will now hand back to Paul Flynn for closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for your time today. I really appreciate it. I know that it's a busy day. If there's any questions left over for people, you know where to find us. We've got Kevin or Sarah. Ian was on the call as well. He didn't get a question, so he's feeling a little bit out. If there's anything operational that people want to chat about, then just come through the normal channels. Look forward to seeing you all. Thank you.