Welcome to Mirvac Group's FY 2026 results briefing. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a live audio question, press the Request to Speak button at the top of the broadcast window. The broadcast will be replaced by the audio questions interface. Press Join Queue, and if prompted, select Allow in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone. If you have any issues asking a question via the web, a phone line is also available. Dial-in details can be found on the Request to Speak page or on the homepage under Asking Audio Questions. The audio queue is now open, and you may join at any point during the meeting. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
It is now my pleasure to hand you over to Mirvac's CEO and Managing Director, Campbell Hanan.
Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our full year results presentation. Joining me is our CFO, Courtenay Smith, our CEO Investments, Richard Seddon, and our CEO Development, Stuart Penklis. I would like to begin by acknowledging that we are presenting to you today from Gadigal Land, and I would like to pay my respects to elders past and present. At our half-year results, we spoke about the momentum that was building across all parts of our business. This momentum has continued into the second half, and we have executed on all of our priorities for the year. Our operating profit of AUD 508 million is up 7% on PCP. NTA has returned to growth, and our statutory profit has improved, reflecting better returns across all asset classes. All of this has been achieved with gearing below the midpoint of our target range at 24.1%.
We set a clear strategy three years ago, and we are delivering on this strategy, which continues to drive growth across multiple fronts. What you will see in these results is the improved quality and growth outlook of the investment portfolio, demonstrated by high occupancy at 98%, positive leasing spreads, strong like-for-like income growth, and positive valuation growth. You will notice the major restocking and improvement in development returns, which are expected to accelerate into FY 2027. You will notice a 15% increase in residential sales volumes and gross margins exceeding our target. You will notice the recapitalization and expansion of our major fund vehicles, and importantly, you will notice the additional balance sheet capacity with assets under construction now fully funded. Having reset the platform, our focus is now firmly on delivering further growth initiatives on multiple fronts.
Our additional AUD 130 million of new recurring income will hit the investment portfolio in coming years, benefiting from the completion of assets across build-to-rent, industrial, and office. FY 2027 will be the first year of NOI growth in the investment portfolio since FY 2023, with asset sales no longer required. Our development business has and will benefit from the five new Master-Planned Communities launches in FY 2026 and 2027, as well as the settlement of five apartment projects in the next nine months, restoring double-digit returns. The activation of our restock pipeline will also support development earnings beyond FY 2028. Today, we are also announcing a share buyback of up to AUD 200 million, which we view as a compelling allocation of capital at a time when we are trading at a 25% discount to NTA.
We have positive valuation growth across every major asset class, strong embedded value in our development pipeline, a growing funds platform, and confidence in our future earnings outlook, so a buyback represents good value at this time. Our performance is underpinned by a strong culture, sustainability leadership, and active governance. We have progressed our 2030 net positive targets, achieved our social procurement goal five years early, and increased employee engagement to top quartile. Along with this, we have become a leader in learning and development and continue to have strong diversity outcomes. Achieving these targets are complementary to our strong financial performance. They help us attract capital, customers, and talent while supporting long-term value creation for our stakeholders. We have well progressed on AI deployment across the business to increase productivity with over 100 active agents created and 80% of our team regularly utilizing AI and plans for further integration.
I will now hand over to Courtenay to take you through the financial metrics.
Thank you, Campbell, and good morning, everyone. FY 2026 demonstrates the earnings benefit of the strategy we have been executing across the business, and importantly, we finished the year with a stronger balance sheet and the capital to deploy capital selectively into attractive opportunities. FY 2026 was a year of focused delivery, delivering 12% growth in EBIT and a return to positive valuations. Development was the major driver, with EBIT increasing by more than 50%. Commercial and mixed-use earnings was underpinned by contributions from 55 Pitt Street, Aspect, and Seed stage 2, while residential was supported by higher settlement prices, improved margins, and capital partnering on Harbourside and Kindira stage 1. Investment earnings remained resilient despite asset sales, with growth in living and industrial and positive like-for-like NOI growth across the portfolio. Excuse me. Funds EBIT increased 9%, supported by growth in funds under management as developments completed.
Across the group, overheads were broadly stable, while net interest costs increased, reflecting lower capitalized interest. Pleasingly, positive investment and development valuations also contributed to a significant increase in statutory profit. Overall, this was a quality operating result, with execution across the platform translating into earnings growth and improved returns. Turning to the balance sheet. We finished FY 2026 in a stronger financial position. Over the past year, we have deliberately strengthened that position. Headline gearing reduced to 24.1%, available liquidity increased to AUD 1.6 billion, and our credit ratings remained unchanged at A3 and A-. This reflects active capital management, including around AUD 2 billion of capital partnering transactions, approximately AUD 500 million of asset sales, and the refinancing of AUD 2 billion of debt on favorable terms. Importantly, looking forward, we have multiple funding sources available.
Having largely completed the asset sales required to create capacity, future sales will be selective and tied to reinvestment opportunities that support our capital allocation priorities. Alongside this, we have AUD 1.5 billion of residential pre-sales, retained earnings, further capital partnering opportunities, and existing liquidity to support disciplined deployment. We have also restocked the pipeline on capital-efficient terms, giving us the flexibility over future investment. That financial capacity gives us choice, and we will remain disciplined in how we deploy it. As Campbell mentioned today, we have announced an on-market buyback of up to AUD 200 million, which we believe represents a disciplined and value-accretive use of capital at current pricing. Importantly, we will fund the buyback out of existing capacity, and it does not constrain our ability to invest selectively in the development pipeline or pursue strategic opportunities that meet our return thresholds.
In short, we've created capacity, retained funding flexibility, and will maintain the discipline to deploy capital where we see the most attractive returns for shareholders. Thank you, and I'll now hand over to Richard.
Thank you, Courtenay. Good morning, everyone. We've continued to sharpen the quality of the investment portfolio, strengthen the resilience of its cash flows, and reposition it towards the sectors with the strongest structural growth. There are three key points you'll notice this year. First, the non-core disposal program required to fund the committed development pipeline is largely complete. Second, we have added brand-new, high-quality living and logistics assets to the portfolio. Third, we have more than AUD 2.6 billion of committed developments still to complete or reach their full earnings run rate. The benefit is clearly coming through in the operating metrics you can see on this slide.
With the major repositioning work largely behind us, the portfolio is now built for growth, with more than AUD 130 million of further NOI from committed developments now fully funded, market demand that continues to favor quality assets, and a constrained supply outlook across the board. In office, we've fundamentally repositioned the portfolio to be high quality, better located, and more sustainable. Now around 60% premium, and exited our exposure to suburban office. Another strong year of leasing has delivered a very attractive expiry profile, with just 9% over the next two years and maintained occupancy above 96%. The market is past an inflection point, with quality assets clearly outperforming, and our portfolio is positioned to respond where the demand is the strongest. In industrial, development-led growth is translating directly into earnings.
NOI is up around 50% over the last three years, with a further 90,000 sq m delivered during the year at Aspect and fully leased. Stabilized portfolio metrics are very strong as evidenced on this slide. Construction has commenced at Seed in Western Sydney, the next project in our industrial pipeline. At around 380,000 sq m, Seed is nearly twice the size of Aspect and provides excellent visibility of the next phase of growth. Occupier demand is concentrated in high quality, highly functional new buildings, exactly the product we're delivering. In retail, we've delivered strong performance across all key metrics, with sales productivity reaching record levels. Our focus on dense, urban, affluent catchments with strong population growth is delivering and positions us well for resilient performance with constrained supply and strong capital demand. Living remains one of our highest conviction growth themes, with EBIT up 9% in the year.
Both build to rent and land lease continue to scale and perform. There are two key items I'd like to highlight. In build to rent, market rents have grown at twice the rate of inflation over the past three years, and the outlook remains well supported. Our recent completions have increased EBIT by over 70% and deliver an attractive 9.5% total return. In land lease, we've increased new home settlements by 16%, supported by strong rent reversions and price growth. We've restocked nearly 800 new home sites and expect to be selling across seven new communities over the financial year. We'll continue to grow our living exposure in a structurally undersupplied housing sector where demand for these product types is deep, supply is constrained, and Mirvac has an enduring competitive advantage.
The repositioning work we've undertaken has strengthened the quality of our portfolio, funded our committed pipeline, and created a clearer earnings growth pathway. From here, we'll continue to execute with discipline and conviction. I'll now hand over to Campbell.
Thanks, Rich. Our funds business has reached a significant inflection point, reflecting the strength of the platform we have built and the strength of our relationships with our capital partners. Third-party capital under management has increased to more than AUD 18 billion, with approximately AUD 15 billion raised over the past four years. This growth has been driven by our differentiated model, which combines capital partnership, investment management, and asset creation capabilities across the office, industrial, retail, and living sectors. Importantly, much of the work to establish our scale, our core investment platforms has now been completed, positioning the business for continued growth. In build-to-rent, the recapitalization of the LIV Mirvac Fund with Australian Retirement Trust was a significant milestone. The fund now comprises approximately 2,200 operational apartments with ambition to scale beyond 5,000.
During the year, we secured the fund's next opportunity at 577 King Street in Melbourne, and we are progressing a further opportunity at Green Square in Sydney. We are also intending to launch a capital raise to create Australia's first large-scale co-mingled build-to-rent fund. We have delivered another year of strong performance in the Mirvac Wholesale Office Fund and successfully raised the equivalent of AUD 310 million during FY 2026, and a total of AUD 632 million since April 25, leaving it well-positioned to pursue acquisition opportunities with two premium core CBD assets in exclusive due diligence. MWOF ranked first over the three-month period and second across the office peer set over seven years, reinforcing its track record of outperforming through the cycle.
We also expanded our industrial platform through the sell-down of Seed stage 2 to our partner, Australian Retirement Trust, and launched the Mirvac Wholesale Retail Venture, seeded by a 50% interest in our East Village Shopping Center. With approximately AUD 3.2 billion of secured future funds under management currently in development, continued capital raising activity, and strong partner engagement, our funds business is well-positioned to deliver sustainable earnings growth and enhance returns for our security holders. I will now hand over to Stu.
Thank you, Campbell, and good morning. We delivered a strong year in development. Residential margins recovered, unconditional exchanges increased 15%, return on invested capital improved, and we have a clear line of sight to further growth in returns into FY 2027. We have strengthened the platform for future growth by building our pipeline, increasing the number of trading projects, and bringing capital partners to drive velocity and returns. With these foundations now in place, we expect development returns to exceed 10% in FY 2027. In commercial and mixed use, we have AUD 5 billion of projects underway. Construction is progressing well, all projects on track to complete on time and on budget.
We completed over AUD 2 billion of developments in FY 2026, which included the north and south precincts of Aspect Industrial Estate, which are 100% leased, LIV Anura and LIV Albert, which have achieved strong leasing outcomes, and our new office building at 7 Spencer Street in Melbourne, which is 24% leased and has seen a notable uptick in tenant inquiry since completion. 55 Pitt Street is in a strong position. Pre-leasing is at 40%, tenant interest remains solid, and the project is well-placed to benefit from a supply-constrained Sydney office market. At Seed in Badgerys Creek, we've commenced construction of our super prime industrial precinct. Inbound tenant inquiry is strong, supported by the recent completion of the Western Sydney Airport and the new M12 motorway. Harbourside Construction is progressing ahead of program, and fees from the project will contribute to earnings through to completion in calendar year 2027.
Hunter Street East will be a significant addition to the pipeline in the coming year. Secured on attractive capital efficient terms, the AUD 3 billion project is now unconditional following planning approval and positions us to benefit from the restricted supply outlook for core Sydney office. Importantly, these projects contribute to development profit as well as future NOI management fees and NTA growth. Turning to residential, we saw an improvement in sales activity over the year with unconditional exchanges up 15%, along with a strong recovery in margins and low default rates. Sales were supported by a ramp-up in activation of new projects in Queensland, W.A., and New South Wales, which are performing well with first settlements in FY 2027.
While sales and inquiry didn't moderate in the fourth quarter as buyer sentiment softened, our residential outlook is underpinned by four clear strengths: a high level of owner/occupiers, the quality of Mirvac product, the fact that we're selling on more fronts than ever before, and a healthy secured pre-sales balance. That sits against an acute undersupply of housing in Australia, tight vacancy, and a growing population, which continues to support the long-term fundamentals for our residential business. We continue to see the resilience in the Queensland and W.A. markets, where we have doubled the number of trading projects, as well as a continued momentum in our built form in Sydney's middle ring. We are now seeing a compelling affordability story appear in Victoria, which is likely to drive an increase in activity as sentiment improves over time.
We enter FY 2027 in a strong position with approximately AUD 1.5 billion of pre-sales, 63% of settlements secured, and a ramp-up in project activations in the middle ring locations. A major achievement over the past few years has been the disciplined restocking of our pipeline. We have secured sites on capital efficient structures with accretive returns and strong visibility to future earnings. What differentiates Mirvac today is the size, quality, and diversity of our pipeline. We've secured over 11,000 new lots over the past three years, and we are unlocking over 3,500 lots through state government planning pathways in the middle and inner rings. A recent example of how we're working with government to unlock value is our Bay Centre office building in Pyrmont. This project has been accepted into the Housing Delivery Authority approval pathway for a change of use to a major residential tower.
With 26,000 lots in our pipeline across growth corridors, middle ring housing, and inner-city apartments, we are well-positioned to actively respond with the right product to meet customer demand. As you can see from this slide, we expect a marked step-up in settlements into FY 2027. This outlook is supported by an increase in active projects with five new Master-Planned Communities launching and five apartment projects settling in the coming year. These apartment projects are already 66% pre-sold on average, and we have further new projects contributing to settlements in FY 2028, including Harbourside. As you can see, development has moved into a growth phase. We have a high-quality pipeline, strengthening returns, and clear visibility of earnings into FY 2027 and beyond. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Campbell to conclude.
Thanks, Stu. For FY 2027, we're targeting continued growth in earnings and distributions. We're guiding to EPS of between AUD 0.132 and AUD 0.134, and DPS of AUD 0.099, representing growth of 4.2%. The guidance is underpinned by between 2,800 and 3,100 residential settlements. While there has been some moderation in residential markets, we start FY 2027 with 63% of our settlement target already exchanged, which is well above our rate at this time last year. In closing, FY 2026 was about execution and laying the foundations for the next phase of growth. We've reset the portfolio, restored development returns, strengthened our funds platform, and maintained a strong balance sheet. Importantly, we now have multiple drivers of future earnings growth. Additional NOI from development completions, a significantly expanded development pipeline, growing funds under management, and increasing living sector exposure.
We believe Mirvac enters FY 2027 as a stronger, higher quality business with a visible pathway to sustained EPS, NTA, and shareholder value growth. With that, I'll now hand back to the operator and welcome your questions.
Thank you, Campbell. If you've not yet joined the live audio queue, please do so now. I will introduce each caller by name and ask you to go ahead. You'll then hear a beep indicating your microphone is live. Please try to limit yourself to two questions. Our first question comes from David Pobucky from Macquarie Group. David, please go ahead.
Good morning, Campbell, Courtenay, and team. Thanks for your time. Just the first question on the resi settlement guidance of 2,800 to 3,100 lots in FY 2027. That was well above consensus expectation. If you could just talk a little bit more about the confidence in delivering that against the current residential backdrop and the key contributors by project, please.
Look, I might start and then, Stu, I'll hand to you. Look, the confidence really came through some of the commentary from Stu. We're selling on more fronts, which we've been talking about for the last 12 months. Most of those sales are now settling, particularly in FY 2027. We've also got more launches coming, and probably the one that people may not be focused on is the apartment projects that we were selling three years ago, two years ago, last year. Those projects are now settling into FY 2027. With that, we have a pretty strong settlement expectation, which is largely underpinned. 63%, as we mentioned, of our settlement target is currently sold, and that's at the top end of our guidance range. So we feel comfortable that we'll have enough inventory and stock on the ground to continue to sell into that.
Probably more importantly, that is focused very much on the run rate we've been working to for the last eight weeks, which again, is a post-budget, post-interest rate increase run rate. So we are certainly comfortable that we're selling in line with run rate. Stu, did you want to add anything to that?
Yeah, look, the only thing that I would probably add to that is the diversity of the pipeline. We're selling on more fronts. We're selling across greenfield, middle ring, apartments. That diversity of our portfolio, both across the rings, but also then across the states, and particularly with an exposure to W.A. and Queensland, which continue to perform very strongly, has just put us in a really strong position to obviously have the confidence that we've been able to provide that range. And sitting at 63% secured, which is about 10% above where we were last year, is a pretty solid result for the business.
Thank you. Just the second question on FY 2027 OEPS guidance. So good growth there, up 2%-4%, again, above consensus expectations. Resi settlement guidance is for 38% growth at the midpoint. Just curious to understand some of the key headwinds across the P&L. Obviously, the weighted average cost of debt looks to be stepping up from 5.4% - 5.7%. Any comment on that and capitalized interest, please?
Courtenay, do you want to take that?
Yeah. Thanks, Dave. The business is we do expect good growth out of the EBIT from the businesses. Investments growth will come online. We've got new income coming in. Development guide, just to help people, I would guide you across development to think about it as a return, an EBIT return, on about AUD 3 billion of capital, just above 10%. So it'll give you a sense of the total contribution we expect from development and the underlying resi contribution to that. We still have committed projects in commercial mixed use to contribute. Funds we expect year- on- year to largely be flat. What you should also factor in, I guess, is gearing. I would expect the look-through gearing to be at the top end, toward the top end of the range.
With the cost of debt increase, I guess that's what's offsetting the increase in the EBIT line, just to give you a sense of that. Overarchingly, our business is really well-positioned. The income that we've got coming online in investments is secured. We've got good, expect good like-for-like growth. Developments, as Stu's talked about, is well secured, and the committed pipeline will contribute. We are looking at some capital partnering across Green Square and Aspect, which we flagged last year, which we expect that will contribute to 2027. Importantly, it's much less reliant on that capital partnering than we have been before. The underlying performance and earnings resilience of the business is much stronger.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Adam Calvetti from Bank of America. Adam, please go ahead.
Hi, Campbell, and team. Just a quick one. The spread between your gross resi margin and your residential EBIT margin widened this half pretty materially relative to other periods. What is the explanation and what is driving this, and what is the expectation for FY 2027?
Yeah. Hi, Adam. I think the simplest answer is our sales are up, so we have got more selling costs. So that spread, I think last year was about 430 basis points. This year it is about 470 basis points between gross margin to EBIT margin. It is largely got to do with increased sales in the year.
Okay. That's pretty clear. Just the average MPC sales price expectations for FY 2027.
They're largely in line with this year. Average sales prices, I think, was your question.
Sitting around AUD 452,000 a lot in MPC.
Okay. Amazing. One more if I may. Should we think? We've got circa 23% gross margin, 24% gross margin this year. Should we think of that as a peak margin year, or could that continue ex impaired projects into future years?
Oh, look, I might jump in there, Adam. I think just remember that FY 2026 was predominantly Master-Planned Communities, which is higher margin but relatively less profit. What you will see moving into FY 2027 is more apartment projects, which are higher profit but lower margin, which is why we have always guided that 18%-22% range, and you should expect we will be within that range.
Okay, great. Congrats on the result.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tom Bodor from Jarden. Tom, please go ahead.
Good morning, all. I am just interested in how much of the buyback is included in the earnings guidance.
Yeah. I think we've considered it as we've arrived at guidance, Tom. I think it obviously depends on how quickly that executes over the next period. I think it's important. We see value in the buyback today, I think is the most important thing, and it is accretive to the growth, both on an EPS and an NTA perspective. Happy that we're able to deploy some capital toward it this year.
How much of the AUD 200 million is in your guidance?
We're assuming we work through the 200. We've considered it, but of course it depends on how quickly that executes.
I guess either the full 200 over the course of the year. Is that the right way to think about it?
Yes. Yep.
Okay, great. Thanks. The other one I would be interested in, maybe one for Stu, just on the apartment sales in the second half appeared to be fairly subdued. Be interesting comments around how the apartment sales have tracked, particularly post-budget as well.
Since budget, obviously, we did see a bit of a drop-off in sales in Q4. We have certainly seen, since our apartment projects are nearing completion, an uptick in inquiry and an uptick in conversion. To give you some color, at Harbourside on the weekend, we took three deposits across a broad spectrum of price points. What we are definitely seeing on the ground is strong activity from owner/occupiers. That is without question. As projects are nearing completion, the quality of the product really resonating. Activity still remaining solid. Obviously, off the highs that we saw 12 months ago, but really resonating with that owner/occupier buyer.
Thanks.
Our next question comes from Solomon Zhang from UBS. Solomon, please go ahead.
Morning, Campbell and team. Thanks for your time. Just wanted to pick up on, Courtenay, your comments earlier just around the 10% ROIC on your AUD 3 billion of development capital. It implies that you have north of AUD 300 million of development EBIT for 2027. I just wanted to ask about the mix of resi and com dev. Would you expect a higher resi proportion given the step-up in volumes?
Yeah. The short answer to that question is yes, we do expect a higher contribution from resi. But I just want to make sure that we are talking about the same thing. What we are guiding to is an EBIT return on the capital deployed. So we will have about AUD 3 billion out the door in development and some guiding on the EBIT line. You will get a just above 10% return. When we talk about ROIC, we not only contribute or include the operating earnings, but also in our non-operating profit is the NTA uplift we get on the completion of these developments. So when we think about development return overall and talk about ROIC, it is actually including both of those two components, just to make sure we are talking about the same things.
I think importantly, we are seeing return of that return from the development business, which is great progressively from 2024- 2025 and now 2026, and we expect that to happen into 2027. The business is performing well on that basis.
Sure. Just to pick up on that. Would you expect that development line, just on the EBIT line, to be up year-on-year, 2027 versus 2026?
Yes, it will be up year-on-year.
Thanks. Just wanted to also ask about the FY 2027, I guess settlements secured of 63%. That includes both conditional and unconditional sales. I am just wondering what that number would be if you stripped out the conditional sales.
Stu, do you want to take that?
If we were to strip out the conditional sales, I think we are sitting at about 58%.
Yeah. That is right. I think it might be 58%. Sorry, just to help. The conditional sales are just over 300, and we have not seen any, the performance of those conditional sales, which are Queensland and Western Australia, have been performing well. We do not expect any concern with that, so we do not think about it without those in.
Just to talk to those projects.
Thank you. Appreciate it.
It is really the new Darling Bullsbrook project at Bullsbrook in W.A., Kindira and Everdene in Mulgoa in New South Wales.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from James Druce from CLSA. James, please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good morning, team. Just to follow up on Adam's question on the margin outlook for residential. Are there any sort of high-margin projects coming through on the apartment front to call out? Are there any impairments still coming through for 2027, or are we done there?
No, look, we're kind of done. I think we were pretty clear this time last year that we thought most of the impairments were behind us. What we can talk to in the environment we're in now, from a development and construction perspective, is that probably for the first time, we're seeing real stabilization in construction margins. We're seeing stabilization in the quality and strength of subcontractors, and if anything, across the board, we're probably performing a little better than we'd expected when we think of the time associated with construction, and the release of contingency because we're building better. Across the board, it's certainly, I think those bad times are well behind us.
Okay. And maybe just a comment from Stu on the demand by apartment type, maybe contrasting luxury versus affordable versus mid-market. How has demand changed since these tax changes have come through?
Look, I think if we just look at the Sydney market in particular, we're still seeing strong demand from owner-occupiers in the middle ring. So Highforest project, which is due to complete in the coming months. We have certainly seen a significant uptick in inquiry from downsizers in that market, recognizing the quality, recognizing the value that that product delivers into that catchment. Then a good yardstick is really Harbourside, which is premium, probably not sitting at the super premium end of the market, where, as I said, we obviously had a significantly successful launch early on in that project, selling a significant proportion of that tower. But sales have continued, particularly in the last few weeks, leads have picked up. There was an element of uncertainty in the market, no question, when those tax changes, and successive interest rates came through.
But we've seen the market sort of stabilize, and we've seen inquiry pick up. As I said, Harbourside's a good example where we secured three deposits on the weekend, which again, is just reflective of that upgrader and downsizers still being active in the market. Investors still are in the market. Obviously, we do expect there continue to be a demand from investors particularly because of the way in which those tax settings favor new product. And we think we're well-positioned to be able to respond to that demand over the near term.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Lauren Berry from Morgan Stanley. Lauren, please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Another question on apartments. Stu, are you able to talk about what you're seeing around your appetite to launch any new projects this year, cognizant of the fact that the majority of your apartments under construction will complete in FY 2027? So there's a bit of a pipeline to backfill at the moment. Thanks.
Thanks, Lauren, for the question. We are certainly see opportunity to launch new projects into the market. We've been very focused on unlocking planning. Green Square's a great example of that, where we've been able to progress planning, unlock significant uplift on that site. So we will look to launch the next stages of Green Square into the market this financial year. As a result of what we see is an undersupply starting to really come through in the market, and we're well-positioned to be able to respond to that. We're seeing a number of the smaller developers retract from the market. With continued structural undersupply plus population growth, we think that we're well-positioned to continue to deliver, particularly around that owner-occupier product.
Okay, thanks. The second one is just on the buyback. Firstly, how did you come up with that AUD 200 million figure for the buyback? Also why wouldn't you deploy that capital into your development pipeline rather than into, yeah, your own stock? Thanks.
Yeah, thanks, Lauren. That's a great question. Obviously, we balance a lot of things when we're thinking about investing decisions. Clearly, we're very return-focused, and we'll always be return-focused. We see pretty good returns ahead of us, and we think buying that at a discount makes sense for our shareholders. In terms of scale, we're always very aware of what our look-through gearing numbers will look like. We're very cash flow focused. We're sort of on one hand thinking about settlements coming in, with increased apartment settlements this year and certainly into the year after with Harbourside versus cash outflow as we start to redeploy some of that capital into the next wave of apartment projects which Stu spoke to in your first question. So that felt about the right number, and that's something we'll continue to monitor.
Would you need some of that cash coming back from the apartment settlements in order to deploy the buyback, or is that a separate conversation?
No, that is a different conversation. We are pretty confident on the settlement outlook we have in front of us. We obviously reported our gearing numbers today, so we have capacity.
Great. Thanks.
Our next question comes from Suraj Nebhani from Citigroup. Suraj, please go ahead.
Thank you. Good result, guys. Just a couple of questions from me. Firstly, on the land lease side, you have called out strong activation. I do not know if I missed this, but have you given some sort of guidance on settlements or anything you are looking for in FY 2027?
Rich, do you want to take that?
We have not specifically, but we have referred to the strong growth that we have achieved in 2029. Seen great operating metrics across the board with the growth in new settlements and the fact that we have been effective in restocking close to 800 new sites as well as opening up new communities. The guidance, we have not put a particular lot figure on it, but you will be looking at that in the context of the contribution from our investment portfolio. As Courtenay touched on, we are expecting to see good like-for-like growth from the investment portfolio for 2027, noting that we do have the impact of some of the non-core disposals rolling off in office and retail, but offset by that strong growth in living and logistics development switching on.
Understood. Thank you. One for Courtenay. The typical one, every result. Can you give us some guide on the capitalize and, I guess, the interest expense this year?
Yeah. It's always a favorite question. The guide on interest generally, as I said earlier, top end of the range on the look-through with weighted average cost of debt for the year at about 5.7%. On the capitalized interest, this year it's been a slight tailwind, about AUD 6 million. Next year, I would expect a headwind less than AUD 10 million. The reason for that movement is the apartment completions that we're seeing coming through and the unwinding of that capitalized interest. The interest line will be higher than it is this year.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Ben Brayshaw from Barrenjoey. Ben, please go ahead.
Good morning. Courtenay, could you just talk briefly about the incremental contribution from the three MPC states that are contributing to FY 2027 settlements in Mulgoa, Bullsbrook, and Kindira?
I think you can add some color in terms of how those projects are performing, but I might sort of steer away from specific contribution to guidance. The development business is performing well. I do not mean to be repetitive, but we do expect this just above 10% return across development. Commercial mixed use will contribute, but so would residential in the context of the frame we have given and the guidance we have given. Those projects are performing well, and Stu, if you want to add to that.
Look, the only thing that I would add, just to give some more color at a granular level of those three projects, being Highforest, Mulgoa, Darling Bullsbrook, and Kindira, Monarch Glen, it is around 200 lots coming from each of those lots in FY 2027.
All right. Thank you. Just in relation to Serenitas, could you just give an update on how the business is tracking? Do you expect that Mirvac's preemptive right on the remaining interest in the partnership may become up for sale in FY 2027?
Look, I think that is probably a little bit of a hard one for us to answer. Obviously, it is not our asset. It is our asset potentially to buy, but it is not our asset to sell. So, we will monitor that as we go. Just in terms of activity across the board, Rich?
Yeah. Well, thanks, Ben. I just reaffirm what I mentioned earlier, which is the operating performance we have seen across the board has been very strong. We have continued to grow new home settlements. We have continued to see price growth, rental growth, and the portfolio is heavily skewed to the markets where we are seeing the strongest underlying demand, being W.A. and Queensland. So look, we are very focused on growing the business. We are seeing great performance come through. And naturally, as Campbell touched on, whilst there may be opportunities, we do not control the timing, and that is something we will continue to monitor.
That is great, guys. Thanks.
Our next question comes from Claire McKew from Green Street. Claire, please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks, all. My question is more to the contrary, perhaps, of Lauren's in relation to the buyback. I am just curious as to why AUD 200 million, why not more just given where the stock is trading. When we look at your implied net initial yield, you are at north of 7%, which is ahead of some of the returns that you are getting on the development side, let alone on a risk-adjusted basis. So just curious as to how you navigate that versus, say, putting Seed stage 2 into the committed pipeline when Seed stage 1 does not have any pre-leasing. I appreciate the comments around the inquiry levels. But yeah, just curious to understand how you are pairing those capital allocation initiatives.
That's a great question. Thank you, Claire. I'll probably go back to my first point. We're obviously thinking about look-through gearing constantly, and remember we're still completing Harbourside, we're still completing 55 Pitt Street, which are large development assets, which are largely finished, but not quite there yet. So there is still a capital drag that will continue to come through those. Then with reference to any specific asset, just remember that in the CMU line, we play for a couple of things. We're playing for NOI growth, which is a high multiple activity in our business. We're playing for development fees. We're playing for investment management fees, and we're playing for development profit. All of those things are unwind during those capital partnering of CMU projects, which are great return profiles for us.
We do tend to focus on all of those things when we're making these decisions.
Okay. Just in relation to appreciate the comments on development on that front, then just coming back to the opportunities within your portfolio to dispose of more non-core assets and leverage that to fund a more meaningful buyback to shore up the portfolio. Is there appetite there whereby you're not increasing your gearing and you can continue along the development front?
No, look, our focus in the short term has been stabilizing the investment portfolio, getting it to grow again. As I mentioned in my early comments on the call, you'll see growth in the investment portfolio net operating income for the first time since FY 2023. We think that's really important. That's 70% of our balance sheet. Whilst the quality of that portfolio has increased and improved dramatically over the last six or seven years, the reality is that we haven't seen a lot of growth in that headline number. So we're very focused on bringing that back well-funded. That's an important element for us. Will we continue to sell assets through cycle? Yes, but we will look at that more on the base of our ability to replace the income with income.
It's not as though we're selling assets in our future outlook to fund future development. We're very much thinking about income for income swaps as they may present themselves.
Okay, thanks. One more, if I may, just around some of the media speculation on a few office acquisitions. Is this something that's under consideration with respect to some of the partnerships that you're in discussion with or existing funds? Or is it purely speculation and unlikely to materialize?
Oh, look, I think I mentioned in the call that we're in exclusive due diligence on a couple of office assets right now for our Mirvac Wholesale Office Fund. So yes, we are where appropriate, where it fits the return expectations of the fund, the asset allocation of the fund. So yes, we are. Certainly one of the benefits of having a good performing fund that's raising equity is the opportunity to deploy that capital into acquisitions.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Richard Jones from JP Morgan. Richard, please go ahead.
Thank you. Just a question for you, Courtenay. The underlying performance in FY 2027 seemed much stronger, I think, to a strong message you are suggesting. Just wondering if you can quantify what the delta might be broadly between FY 2026 and FY 2027 on industrial development profits and resi JV sale profitt.
I think there is less reliance on capital partnering in FY 2027 than there has been on FY 2026. I think that is the nub of your question. I think capital partnering will continue to be something that we do. It is an important part of the model, and we can drive velocity of capital and additional returns from that model, and we have been very successful over the last number of years at doing that. As we go into FY 2027, the performance of the underlying business and the need to capital partner is less, and so we have less reliance in FY 2027. We have Aspect Central, which we have flagged in FY 2026. It is a smaller and the remaining, the last parcel of Aspect to bring to market. Then Green Square, Stu has talked about the success through the HDA and the opportunity to unlock that this year.
We will look at that. There is a build-to-rent opportunity potentially on that we will talk to the build-to-rent fund about, and we have been talking about that for a little bit. Those two things in isolation are not significant contributors, which has been the past two years. We have had a much more significant contribution from capital partnering.
Yeah. Richard, just to add to that, this time last year, we spoke about Aspect Central and Green Square being part of our guidance for FY 2026. We didn't complete those transactions in FY 2026. They're rolling into FY 2027. Just to follow on from Courtenay, we're moving into a more BAU business model. We will always continue to look for capital partnering. We think it's good for the balance sheet, it's good for returns, and it's good for our capital partners who are looking to buy the best quality real estate in the best locations.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Andrew Dodds from Jefferies. Andrew, please go ahead.
Hey. Good morning, guys. A lot's already been covered, so just one for me. On 7 Spencer Street, it looks like you've downgraded your yield on cost assumptions again, and you've written down the value of the asset by another AUD 200 million. So can you just talk to, I guess, your expectations for the asset moving forward? Leasing progress seems to have stalled. So I guess just what needs to improve to see a bit of a stabilization or improvement in the asset going forward?
Rich, do you want to take Well, look, I might just start there. Look, our office portfolio is performing really well, so I'd probably start with that. I think over 96% occupation is probably the envy of most. So we're starting at a really good point.
60% allocation to premium grade is certainly a sweet spot in terms of the market right now. 7 Spencer Street, without a doubt, little disappointing in terms of its leasing success. It's a really good quality building. We're incredibly proud of what we've delivered there. And I think now that the building's open, we're pleasantly surprised with the demand that is now looking at that building. But Rich, do you want to sort of give any more color?
Yeah, just expand on exactly that. We've seen a noticeable uptick in inquiry now that the building's complete. We can see the quality of the building coming through, and that's resulting in much more elevated inspections. We're probably doing two to three inspections a week with prospective customers and naturally, we're very focused on delivering them. There's no question the Melbourne office market has been slow to recover. But I would reaffirm the work that we've done on the quality of the portfolio has given us a very strong forward expiry profile and naturally, now with this building completed, we'll be focused on leasing it up. But we have positioned the portfolio materially towards the parts of the market that we're seeing the strongest growth with now close to 60% premium grade across the portfolio.
Thank you.
Thanks. Our next question comes from Suraj Nebhani from Citigroup. Suraj, please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity again. Just one for Stuart. Just on construction costs, it seems like it was a big topic initially, when the Middle Eastern conflict started. Obviously, prices sort of increased first and came back, and diesel has gone back up in recent weeks. Keen to get your perspective, Stuart, on what you're hearing from subbies on the ground. How is the market looking? Maybe if you can touch on the major states and what does that mean for, I guess, the margin outlook.
Yeah. Thanks, Suraj, for that question. Look, I think initially there was some real concern around the impact of what the Middle East crisis may have across the construction sector. There's no question fuel price increases over the period did have some impact on costs, particularly in the civil space where we saw users of high levels of diesel look for some relief in that segment. But it ended up being quite immaterial in the scheme of our projects, so we were able to navigate that very well. As a broader lens of construction across the country, we've certainly seen a dramatic improvement in productivity in Queensland. Here in New South Wales on a tier one project that Mirvac typically runs here in New South Wales, we're seeing very competitive tendering.
We're seeing the major subcontractors gravitate to the likes of Mirvac because of the safety, the productivity, the certainty of payment. So we remain quite confident moving forward that things have certainly stabilized. We do expect that construction costs for 2026 will increase or escalate by about 4.5% here in New South Wales and about 4% in Victoria. But we do certainly see a very stable construction market moving forward.
Thank you.
That is the last question we have time for, so I will hand back to Campbell Hanan for closing remarks.
Great. Well, look, thank you. I just want to pass on our thanks from the team for taking time to hear us today. We will look forward to meeting with as many of you as possible in coming weeks as we get through the roadshow process. Thank you for your time.
That concludes today's call. Thank you for joining us.