Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Mina, your call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Aegean Airlines conference call to present and discuss the briefing on current developments. All participants will be in a listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Eftichios Vassilakis, Chairman. Mr. Vassilakis, you may now proceed.
Hello, everybody. Good afternoon, and welcome to our briefing. We thought, especially due to the AGM, that we have announced the extraordinary agenda I've announced, that we needed to have another briefing call. I hope you'll find whatever you hear helpful in understanding the state we're in. So I'll start from our results, which we published 10 days ago. Then go a little bit to the extraordinary general assembly and the warrants issue. Talk to you a little bit about our fleet and the GTF issue, and then an overall outlook as we go toward the end of the year, the beginning of next year.
We'll try to keep the discussion on a relatively high level, to steer you into understanding a little bit more about our company. And I would appreciate that, questions also stay on a relatively broader level, since the investor relations department has already, to some degree, taken questions on detailed figures. And of course, they're available to you after this brief as well. So starting from our results, 10 days ago, we published on the fourteenth of November, what is clearly the strongest nine months results we've ever released.
It's very important for us that after, extremely positive year of 2022, we managed to have a year in 2023, or even in Q3, which was already a historical high on a quarter-by-quarter basis of 2022. The numbers of Q3 2022 were exceeded by Q3 2023. And as a result, the overall, nine-month picture of the company, the results of the company, comes to EUR 1.33 billion of consolidated revenue, EUR 367 million of EBITDA, two hundred and seventeen million of profit before tax, and EUR 170 million of profit after tax.
Clearly, these results, which are significantly higher than last year, 30%, 31% higher on revenue, 56% higher on EBITDA, 79% on pre-tax profit, and 83% on after-tax profit, are extremely strong. Considering once again, that last year was already a record year for us. And I think they do serve to establish that the company not only has fully recovered on the post-COVID, let's say, period, but also has probably strengthened its overall position in the market as the relative strength of its results, the relative strength of its profitability, relative to what we have seen in the market, also ranks very well and with some degree of significant improvement relative to how we used to rank back in 2019.
What's also extremely significant for us is that the cash flow side has developed extremely well. We have EUR 755 million of cash and equivalents at the end of the third quarter. That's EUR 230 million more than the end of the year, after significant CapEx activity and repayments of debts, either relating to COVID-related loans or actually even aircraft financed before 2021, where we have opted to increase a little bit the degree to which we own aircraft. So overall, extremely strong cash flows. Never have seen a cash flow level again at the level that we have seen for these 9 months.
Resulting into a situation where our net debt, even including, of course, the lease liabilities, which is the part that is growing as per IFRS 16, stands at a level that's around about EUR 70 million lower. Net debt stands at EUR 70 million lower than it was at the end of 2022. And more importantly, the EBITDA to debt ratio has fallen from 1.7 last year. The trailing 12-month EBITDA to debt is now just 1, tracking from the last quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023. And I believe this number puts us also very high up there in comparison with the healthiest of airlines, not only in terms of profitability, but also adjusted for size, of course, also for our balance sheet.
If we want to consider slightly more commercial elements, I think all ratios, again, showed a positive evolution. There is a positive evolution in the load factor in the nine months at 4.7% higher. There's a positive evolution for the quarter at 1.8% higher from 83.9% to 85.6%, which is also significant. There is a slight reduction on the cost per ASK for the quarter by 1%, for the nine months -2%, and excluding the fuel, our overall cost per ASK, despite the significant inflationary pressures which affect several aspects of our costs, is only 1% up, without a significant change, of course, in the average sector length, which has stayed round about the same level as last year.
RASK has continued to perform as we have outlined to you in our previous calls. In other words, in the third quarter, it was more or less in line to what it was in Q3, 2022, of course, with a significantly higher level of activity and density of operations. So, at the full nine months, we are actually 5% higher in RASK than for the previous year. In terms of profitability, I think what is also important to note, as a ratio, it is the fact that, on an EBITDA level of nine months, we are at 28%, which I believe ranks extremely highly among European airlines.
And even on a net income versus revenue level, we're just below 13% at 12.8%. Again, one of the highest numbers among European-listed airlines that we've actually seen. So a very positive quarter and extremely positive nine months establishing a higher degree of confidence for us as we go forward. I think it's also important to highlight that, as we also did in our last call, it's important to highlight that the improvement is driven not only by continuing increase in the tourism flows coming into the country, which have continued to also grow. The difference being that we gained market share this year versus the year before.
So our rate of growth in the market, in the international and in the domestic market, was higher than the average this year, relative to the industry, whereas last year it was the other way around. But tourism flows in the country in both cases have been growing. What we've also highlighted is that the improvement in the Greek economy and the post-COVID era continue to drive a resurgence of travel by Greeks. And so it is both elements of domestic consumption and incoming tourism-related flows that actually support our development and performance. And we see that also coming out of the summer, of course, towards the more winter months, where, as is typically the case, Greeks become a higher percent of our overall customer base.
So that is also a very encouraging feature of what is going on. I will not go into more details on the results, because I believe you've had already 10 days to look at them, and I'm sure you've asked our investor relations team a lot of questions already. I think you will agree that they are indeed extremely strong and very promising for the continuation of the company going forward. So I'll switch into the second topic I wanted to discuss. This refers to the fact that on the third of November of this year, we received from the Greek state the notice expressing their intention to exercise all of their warrant rights in the company. We immediately briefed the market.
This was a Friday. On the sixth of November, we immediately briefed the market to this event. This is, of course, in terms of an outstanding issue for the company, very well known to you. It's been there since the summer of 2021, when we completed our capital increase, and then received the compensation of EUR 120 million, as approved by the EU, from the Greek government. And as a function of the overall agreement, between the company and the Greek state, despite the fact that the EUR 120 million were compensation and therefore not redeemable, the Greek state had placed two more conditions. One, of course, that we preceded their support by a EUR 60 million private shareholder capital increase, which took place in June 2021, preceding the July grant.
Also, after receiving the grant, we issued the rights for the Greek state to receive a total of 10.4 million warrants into the company, exercisable for three years from July 2023 to July 2026. And at the strike price, which was the price equal to the price of the capital increase of June 2021, i.e., EUR 3.2 million, sorry, 3.2, sorry, euro per share. Therefore, on the third of November, we were already three, four months within the period that the Greek state had the right to do so.
We, of course, had signaled in several, on several occasions that as a company, we were already, from a capital point of view and from a liquidity point of view, in a position to potentially, buy out the warrants. The Greek state, therefore, obviously observing also a significant, appreciation in the value of the share, which has taken place, during the duration of the year, decides to exercise, their rights and, send us a notice on the third of November. As a function of their exercise, what happens, automatically, the day that they submit, their intention or they declare their intention, locks in the 60-day average weighted price, preceding that date as a average share price, whereby actions will be calculated.
The 60 preceding days had an average share of 11.4, which means that, effectively, two things can happen. We, as a company, have the right, upon the exercise of the Greek state, to decide, obviously through a general assembly, to repurchase these rights, paying the Greek state 11.4 minus 3.2, so EUR 0.0820-something per share, or, a total of EUR 85.4 million to buy back these rights and never have these shares issued so they can dilute our current shareholding base.
Or alternatively, if the AGM so decided, we could allow the Greek state; we could actually answer to the Greek state that we don't intend to buy out their rights and allow them to become shareholders by spending EUR 3.2 per share and increasing the capital of the company, and by diluting by 33 million, and diluting our existing shareholder base by roughly 10.3%. So these were the two options created, specified, I would say, by the date the Greek state decided to exercise the warrants upon. And we, of course, immediately notified the market about what was going on.
We notified the market about the values that I just referred to you with our sixth November announcement, which was very specific about all the numbers I just mentioned, and also letting the market know we would immediately call a general assembly, so that we can respond to the state within the 60 days prescribed by the law, and the terms of the warrants. This is, of course, what we have done. We have called the general assembly for the fourteenth of December, in order for this issue to be decided on.
At the same time, we have also informed the market, just a few days back, when we announced the general assembly, that we have received notice already from 60% of the existing, or for shareholders representing more than 60% of the company, that they intend to vote in favor of the buyout of the warrants by the company, and therefore, the outcome of the general assembly is assured. We will certainly, post the general assembly, have a situation where the company will indeed pay the EUR 85.4 million, reduce this capital by this amount, and retire the right of the Greek state to dilute our existing shareholding base.
Now, this is the technical part, from a market, commercial, and I would say, completion of a cycle point of view. I can say that it's very important for us that this entire issue is now heading towards its completion. It has been defined as a level of buyout. It's an overhang over the company, which we're very eager to see completed.
And also, a very important step in terms of signaling, to be able to say to the public and to the Greek state, that even though we received the aid in an unconditional way, meaning in a non-redeemable way, as compensation, the value of the warrant that we have granted has far exceeded what the expectations of the state on the value of that warrant were at the time that it was granted to them. Why? Well, simply because the company, of course, has performed so well in terms of profitability and in terms of market price....
And so, we are very eager to complete this process, put it behind us, give the satisfaction to the Greek state that it has gotten a value from the warrants that was significantly higher than what they initially had budgeted when they got it. And this is a win-win situation, obviously, since this increase in value only comes from the increase of the value of the shares and the performance of the company itself. So very important to put this whole cycle behind us. The company has recovered in revenues, it has recovered in employment, it has recovered in network, it has more than recovered in profitability.
And therefore, it's very important that this whole cycle is completed, and we are once again out there without any further burdens or pending contingent liabilities that could dilute the company in the future. And of course, based on what we told you earlier about the level of the cash flow of the company and the level of the cash at the end of September standing at EUR 755 million, I think we all understand this is not a problem for our company from a liquidity point of view. So I'll stop there with regards to this matter as well. Once again, of course, formally, it will be decided at the general assembly on the fourteenth of December.
However, having received from already a 60% shareholding base component, aggregate component, their intention to vote in support, it is virtually guaranteed. Now, moving further down, briefing you about our fleet. Here, we have two developments, one positive one and one not positive one, which of course you have been already pre-notified by us, by others. The positive development is that we have decided to expand the count of aircraft ordered from Airbus from 46 to 50. So we exercised our remaining options for three aircraft and also secured another aircraft from a lessor, so increasing the count of overall neos to be received to the company from 46 to 50. At the same time, also converted five of the remaining aircraft that we have not received from A320 to A321s.
This means that because also all the options and the additional aircraft are 321s, we will be looking at a total fleet of neos that will arrive at 50 aircraft, total count, with 29 aircraft of those being 321 neos, up from a total of 20 neos. Sorry, 23 321 neos, prior to the conversions and the options exercised. So we are going to a 60% penetration of 321 versus 320 in the order, and we're expanding the order by 4 aircraft and converting another 5. The effect of this expansion in the order will not be immediately felt because the first aircraft it affects refers to 25, and the others are beyond that. So the effect in capacity is not immediate.
But I think what's important is that we have recognized both the value of the order and the terms we have secured from the market before. So we wanted to make sure that we exercise our options, and at the same time, that we also have seen how valuable it is to use the A321neos and the additional seats they provide, and how efficient that is, and therefore, have moved to further increase. And this is the second time we do that, by conversion of the penetration of A321s in the total order, now reaching 60% or 29 out of 50 aircraft to be received in total. As a reminder, as of today, we have actually received 28 aircraft, and therefore, there are another 22 aircraft to go.
Now, turning to the second issue that refers to fleet, which is definitely not a pleasant one. It refers to the GTF engine issues. As you might recall, it's an issue we touched during our September call as well. However, just 4 days after the briefing of Aegean to the market, so our briefing call was on September 7. On September 11, Pratt and RTX, its mother company, made a significant disclosure about a rare condition in the powder metal used in the GTF engines and certain engine parts of the GTF engines, which make a long story short, because you've heard it from many airlines in the market, since this affects more than 40 airlines worldwide and a very significant overall number of aircraft.
It means that basically, to ensure that this issue does not ever come to affect the operation of the aircraft, what does the manufacturer and the regulator mandate we do? Is that the engines are inspected after significantly lower levels of cycles or lower level of maturing than initially prescribed by the manufacturer. So what does that mean? Is that as aircraft reach a certain level of cycles, then they have to come down, the engines have to get off and be inspected and potentially repaired by the MRO. However, the MRO where they receive their power restoration support. However, the issues that typically arise, and this is certainly one of those cases, when there is such a high number of aircraft around the world that require additional inspections and repair, is that actually the MRO capacity is not adequate.
And as a result, you have very significant waiting times between the time that the engines are grounded or the aircraft are grounded, and the time where the engines are returned into use after the repair. At the same time, the number of spare engines that we have or that the manufacturer is able to provide is not adequate to cover the shortfall in the engines, and the net effect is a high number of grounded aircraft. This for our current 28, our current fleet is at 28 neos. It will be at 31 neos, including some deliveries we expect by next year in July. Out of these aircraft, we expect an average of 10 aircraft to be grounded on average. It's not just going to be a steady number.
It's going to start lower and get there. But for 2024, which means, in total, we have 32 A320s, 31 neos, out of an overall fleet of 63 aircraft that will be available to us in jets, excluding the turboprops. 10 aircraft, so roughly one out of six will be forced to be grounded during the course of the year on average. And we do expect this problem to be in an equivalent level on the year after that, in 2025. We do not yet have, for 2025, the slot availabilities that we seem to have for 2024, so it's not easy to be certain for 25.
But the 2024 projection, we think is quite solid. Now, naturally, 10 aircraft, and 10 aircraft among the newest and more efficient aircraft, being out of commission due to the requirement to inspect the engines and have the whole cycle, removal, waiting time to go into MRO, inspection, repair and return, taking a very long period of time, which seems to be now round about a year for each one of those cases, is certainly a very significant effect. And here there are two directions of remedy. One direction of remedy refers to what we do with our fleet in terms of balancing this shortfall. And there, the main reaction is the extension of expiring aircraft.
So we have already procured the extension of five expiring leases in order to cover, to partially cover this 10 aircraft shortfall. And of course, then you still have a shortfall relative to what you intended to do of around 5 aircraft. And there you will see Aegean, in essence, reducing its charter capacity by 4 aircraft relative to what the plan initially was. Which means that we'll make our charter capacity, our charter, sorry, activity quite low. In 2023, our charter activity in total stood at 6 aircraft, whereas in 2024, our charter activity will stand only at 2 aircraft. So 5 aircraft we have covered from extensions to 4 aircraft we will cover from not operating charter activity.
Actually, three out of four of the aircraft that will not be operated as charters did not even operate out of Greece. They operated two of them out of Romania, one of them out of France, and therefore were not certainly part of the core of the activity of Aegean or indeed part of the true scheduled or commercial activity of Aegean. They were not part of what we consider the most important and the most important to defend, either in terms of margin or commercial rationale and commercial presence, activity. Therefore, taking all that into consideration, what is going to be our expected output in terms of ASK for next year?
We had signaled that we were looking at levels between 6%-8% growth of ASKs for 2024 relative to 2023. Now we're going to be looking at levels between 2%-4% ASK growth for 2024. So that's around about a 4% loss of ability to develop. But again, I want to highlight that what we want to do in terms of increasing capacity out of Athens and out of Thessaloniki, in terms of our hub and our important commercial destinations, will continue to happen. You will see us increasing capacity to existing routes and to new routes, such as Dubai, which we just started about now 20 days ago.
And, the planning, I would say, out of Athens and Thessaloniki, relative to what we were looking at before, is not affected, at least in terms of ASK. The second element, of course, refers to having a very significant discussion with our supplier, Pratt & Whitney, or IAE, with regards to compensation about this particular matter. It is clearly something related to problems that stem out of their responsibility, either responsibility as a manufacturer or as a contractor to our engine support program, which is a very comprehensive one. As a result, we have been in a significant discussion with them. We have received already offers for mitigating the cost of this issue.
However, the significant offers we have received to date do not yet come to our full satisfaction, so we have not yet concluded the agreement with them, and are still negotiating to improve the level of coverage of this issue. It is definitely the case that flying more of the ceos and less of the neos than we were planning is a cost and efficiency negative effect. And therefore, whether it is the increased number of aircraft without actually using all of them, or whether it is the shift, or partial shift of usage back to ceos, has significant cost effects, and those are the objective of our discussions with Pratt & Whitney to recover them. We expect this agreement will be complete before the end of this year.
And once again, I want to say that already the manufacturer has made specific, significant proposals. However, we do not consider them yet fully satisfactory, and therefore we continue to negotiate. And as you might expect, in all cases, and I've also heard that in other discussions, the aspects of such agreements are always confidential. So please do not try to get our investor relations people to tell you, because, A, they don't know, and B, they couldn't tell you if they did know. So, that's the part relating to fleet, both some good news and some bad news, which will actually have an effect on our overall growth, but not on our core growth in 2024 and possibly 2025.
And the last thing I wanted to talk about is the outlook post the events in the Middle East, the current trading of our winter quarter, and how the market seems to be, and our performance seems to be heading towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next year. Clearly, the effect of the conflict in Israel certainly has some negative effects. We do not fly to Israel anymore because of security concerns, as most European airlines also do not fly to Israel. Obviously, we are very eager to get back on the market whenever the situation improves.
However, beyond the effects to the Israel market itself, we've also seen markets like Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon be affected by the relative insecurity of people flying to or from these destinations. And as a result, we are adjusting our capacity to these markets. And all these markets together are roughly around 5% or 6% of our existing capacity. Having said that, while this is certainly not something we expected, and this is something that reduces the rate by which our activity develops, we continue to have a growth in ASKs and a growth in passenger numbers during the winter months. We have specifically increased our frequencies to Frankfurt from Athens.
We have started a new route to Dubai on November eleventh. We have tried to extend the season in several routes where we have seen promising results in the summer. And I would say that in most cases things are progressing quite well. Obviously, there are markets that are performing better in terms of revenue per flight or revenue per ASK than last year, and markets that are worse than last year, especially considering how high the level of RASK was last year for us in the last quarter. You might recall that last year, our last quarter was the only one in Aegean's history, which actually had a positive result, I think circa EUR 20 million before tax.
Part of that was driven by positive valuation movements and FX effects, about half of that. So of course, if you take that out, there was about EUR 10. But still, that was always better than the typical result of EUR 2,000, of the last quarter that tends to be negative, for our airline, through the years. This year, considering what we see in terms of revenue quality, where we have improvements and, we have some improvements in some cases that are below. We expect overall, to have a higher activity by around about, sorry, 11% or 12% in ASK. 14%-15%, sorry, of ASK, up higher in the quarter. We expect the revenue from ASK to be mildly lower than last year, perhaps around about 2%.
It's due to the fact that there are significantly higher, the performance of last year in winter in Greece was so strong that many competitors have extended their operation in winter this year. So, just like us, others have increased their capacity as well. That takes away a little bit out of the strength of RASK last year, but in a very, very low level and significantly still at higher fare prices relative to 2019. So we're looking at a quarter that's going to be, I think, round about 0, excluding valuation effects in terms of EBT. And still high up there in terms of where this quarter will compare with any other quarter in Aegean's winter.
So as a forecast for the year, excluding possible valuation effects, as I said, which would come from FX movements, we expect to have a full year EBITDA between EUR 400 million and EUR 415 million. Earnings before tax and exceptionals between EUR 200 million and EUR 215 million. Again, it's before tax. Please don't make the mistake of considering this the after tax number. So very much a record year, even compared by the last one.
And certainly, what's actually, I think, the best element for me is that I see the winter performance once again being significantly supported, either by the extension of what we call the tourism season, or by the level of travel that Greeks choose to do. And once again, Aegean performs very well in terms of competitors during winter months. So I think these are the basic elements I wanted to relate. I think if we try to look a little bit further forward, we do not see an abatement of the demand. We see demand continuing to be with the levels we have seen in the last basically 18 months. Still very strong behind travel, behind travel.
Yes, shifting, of course, between markets, depending on what happens with issues like security or issues like the relative performance of various economies. However, on an overall level, still going very strong in a positive direction. And although, as we also said in our statement, you can never make very safe predictions these days. Geopolitics are volatile, and economies to some degree are volatile. We can at least say that there's no obvious reason today for us to be concerned for the short-term demand we face, going into the next few months. So, the year is going to end well. It's going to end with a...
The whole cycle of COVID behind us, not only because of performance, but also because of the repayment of the repurchase, I'm sorry, of the warrants by the Greek state. So there'll be no overhang on the company. Our investment in the MRO and training facility is progressing very well. We fully expect it to be functional before the end of the year, as we have previously told you. Simulators have already been put in place. Three simulators are already put into place, and we expect by the end of next year to have six. The first customers into the training center will come probably starting January.
And the same will happen also with our new MRO facility and activity, which is about to be licensed from a point of view of repair of the facility we took over by end November, beginning December, and start operations early January. Of course, as we've often told you, when it comes to the MRO, the real challenge is gradually building up the labor force to cover third parties as well, and this is a much more gradual process, which will take some years to mature. But up till now, everything with regards to the plan of training people, of bringing in people, of reconstructing parts of the building that needed repair, or of constructing the new training center and the simulators within the building have gone very well.
We look very much forward to having this facility add to our capabilities. I might add that also because of the difficulties related to the GTF engines, this space and this facility has even more value to us than it did in the past, as our ability to house and protect aircraft or while they're going through this transition and the engines are out is substantially facilitated by the space and capacity that we now have. So, while this is going to be a significant operating problem, certainly at least we're vindicated by our choice of investing in a direction which seems to be relevant for us and for others.
And we believe that this effort, while it is slow in bringing results, is certainly very important in the level of strategic value of Aegean to itself, and others. So, that's what I wanted to say about the call. And last but not least, my last piece of good news for our shareholders. Once we have completed the repayment of the warrants, we will feel now that we have the right to exercise our financial capacity also towards our shareholders. So we fully expect that in the AGM of early next year, which refers to fiscal year 2023, we will have an approval for distributing dividends to shareholders as of April, May 2024.
Therefore, after four years of abstinence from dividends, 2021, 2022 and 2023, AGM shareholders will, in 2024, after the repurchase of the warrants and the closing of the cycle of the COVID assistance, will start to receive again dividends, which we feel is an important maturity and recovery event as well. So thank you very much, and happy to answer a few questions if they are broad about your understanding about where the company is in any of these directions. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star, followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Natalia Svyriadi with Eurobank Equities. Please go ahead.
So, yes, good afternoon. Thank you for this very illuminating call. I think you've covered pretty much everything. I was only looking to clarify something, to be sure I got it correctly, on updating our fleet forecast for the next year, for 2024. If I understood correctly, we're looking for 31 neos. So we are waiting for only three deliveries in next year. This is what I wanted to clarify. And maybe if you are intending of buying some also, as you did last year, if you're going to consider this for next year or we should wait like this to go further out? Thank you.
Your understanding is partially correct. We will receive indeed 3 aircraft by summer peak.
Mm-hmm. Okay.
So in terms of what is available to operate by summer peak, it is three aircraft, but there's also another three aircraft in the second half of the year. So the total number of aircraft, received, new aircraft received in 2024 will be six. However, ahead of the season, which of course defines the peak of the activity, it's only three. And so-
Okay.
-that, that is.
Okay. Yes, that, that is what I was looking for.
Yeah.
And, are you thinking of buying some, or, or it's not something you're not thinking, like, at this point?
Well, I mean, we're buying them all. The question is whether we're doing sale lease backs or we're funding them through different means.
Yes, that's what I meant. Sorry.
Yes, there will be a potential for up to 2 aircraft, 2-3 aircraft, to be next year, funded by different means. We have 2 aircraft that we're taking directly from the source, if memory serves. We have 2 aircraft that are funded by sale lease backs already, and we have 2 aircraft which are available to be funded by different means, meaning by means through which the final value of the aircraft is with Aegean or stays with Aegean. And I think that's the way it will go. Next year, the last 2 aircraft that we had ordered initially from lessors will be delivered.
So actually we expect after that, after 2024, the percentage of aircraft being funded by different means to actually increase further.
Mm-hmm.
Also, we are substantially considering EUR financing for part of these aircraft, but beyond 2024. I don't think we will do that in 2024. 2024 will be $, whether it is sale lease back, whether it is direct lease, or whether it is debt. But 2025 will probably include also some EUR, because we, we are interested to reduce somewhat our exposure to dollar volatility, at least on our balance sheet.
Okay. That was very clear. Thank you very much for this.
The next question is from the line of Memisoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello, many thanks for your time. Just wanted to follow up on demand and ASK growth and yields and load factor. In Q4, I think you mentioned in your comments you're expecting a RASK decline of 1%-2% year-over-year. I was wondering, you obviously have quite a bit of capacity growth. How much was the capacity growth or is the capacity growth from competition in Q4 year-over-year? If you could give us a rough figure on that, that would be helpful. Also, what kind of load factor performance are you seeing in Q4? You had a very strong quarter at least in Q3. And related to this, in 2024, with a much lower capacity growth, how would you expect load factor and RASK performance to evolve? Thank you.
Well, I'll start from the end. What I can tell you about 2024 is I expect, because of the shifts of our activity, less charter, less leisure to the regions, more to Athens and Thessaloniki, this is going to have a seasonality effect. So you're gonna have a delta relative to 2023, which is not going to be equal month by month. You will see somewhat more growth before the peak and somewhat less growth at the peak, because of actually concentrating in the areas that are both less seasonal and more profitable. But I cannot guide you today about load factors and RASK.
I mean, concerning 2024, because, frankly, it's very difficult to predict that. In terms of the last quarter of 2023, I expect our overall load factor around about flat. It will be around about flat relative to last year. So the planes do, I mean, our additional movements are effective in attracting additional passengers, including our growth in the average size of aircraft flown. The RASK, as I told you, let's call it an average of minus 2%. It's not uniform across areas. We have many areas with increases and some areas with decreases. And what else was the question? I think that was it.
Competition ASK growth in Q4.
Oh, yeah. Competition in international activity to Athens and Thessaloniki is around about 16% up in terms of capacity for the winter. It's actually interesting because in 2022, there was a huge increase of capacity in the summer by the competition, which we did not follow. In the winter, we actually had a significant increase of capacity, which they did not follow last year. And this year, it was the reverse. In the summer, we had a higher increase of capacity than the industry, and in the winter, we are perhaps one point less or one and a half point less in capacity growth than the international competitors, but retaining share of ASK in the domestic market.
So in a nutshell, if we are 15, maybe we are 17 in international. And in domestic, I think we're round about both companies around 8, 9%. 7, 8, 9%.
And are you seeing anything different from your local competitor or similar?
Well, everybody tries to grow.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Achal Kumar with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks, gentlemen, thank you for your time. Great presentation. You've given a lot of information and quite a valued information. Just wanted to understand, first of all, on the aircraft, you know, you said that you're going to extend the leases of 5 aircraft. So, would you have any scope to renegotiate the leases to offset for the maybe higher fuel consumption or maintenance, whatever? So would you what kind of opportunity or options you will have to renegotiate the leases of these aircraft?
And then, and then, I mean, in case the demand turns out to be stronger than you expect next year, I mean, do you have that kind of, that, that kind of possibility in mind, which means, which means, you might want to look at any possibility of tapping secondary markets from where you can take some additional aircraft in case the demand turns out to be strong, and you see some possibilities, some opportunities. So are you, are you sort of looking at, are you thinking about those lines? Are you in discussion with any other further lessor? Are you ready for taking more aircraft in case, in case there is a demand? That is my first question.
If you could please help on that.
Well, let me start from the end and try to... This is a global issue, the issue with the GTF engines. It affects round about up to 1,300 neo Airbus, neo aircraft with GTF engines that have been delivered between 2016 and today. Of course, they will not be affected at the same time, but there are estimates that there would be between 350 and 500 aircraft grounded at any one time among this fleet of 1,300 aircraft.
As you might understand, this automatically creates a shortage of aircraft in the global market that is quite significant, and I would say probably more so in the European market, because of the effect and the significance of narrow-body fleets here. I am sure you have already heard this from many participants in the market. Therefore, what does that do? That means that to secure aircraft from others becomes more expensive. Lessors are increasing lease rates because there is a demand out of this shortfall of aircraft for people like us to try to recover capacity. Therefore, it is important to be very selective.
It is in our, our, let's say, strategy in the response, is to accept the fact that there will be an operation that will not be lower than what it was in 2023, but it will be lower than what we were planning. And we have to take out 4 or 5 aircraft out of our overall planned capacity, choosing which part of the capacity to take it out of. Why? Because if we go out on the market to negotiate for aircraft now, we will get significantly worse terms for a longer period of time. Now, you might say, "Okay, so you decide to fly 5 aircraft, 4 or 5 aircraft less. You cut your charter operation. That is not strategic for you.
That is not, of course, the highest margin business." We do that mainly to retain capacity, to have flexibility, or divert capacity and remedy capacity shortfalls like what we have now. But then the other thing that you have to do, of course, is negotiate the compensation with the supplier, with Pratt & Whitney, i.e. Therefore, this is where the compensation for the cost in leases or fuel burn will come from. It will not come from a market that has been shortened by 500 or 600 aircraft overall, over the world, that will be grounded. Because it's a very good time for lessors, and every airline out of the 44, I understand, airlines that operate neos with Pratt & Whitney engines and share this problem, will be seeking capacity.
This makes capacity scarce. So, in a nutshell, we realize that if 10 are gonna be grounded, we want to mitigate the shortfall by 5, by extending leases, but we also want to accept that we'll have 4 or 5 aircraft less in our operation. We take it out of the fleet, which is not strategic, and we don't earn very much. And then simultaneously we go to our supplier, like all the other companies, and of course say, "Well, you have created a very significant problem for us. We're gonna be paying full leases for 10 aircraft we will not be using.
Not only that, we will be parking them, we will be storing them, we will be maintaining them, being idle, which has cost, and we will be flying less efficient aircraft for the part of the business that we were expecting at lower fuel costs. All these things put together create a significant cost, which we're asking them to mitigate or cover. They have mitigated it as per what they have proposed. They have not covered it, which is why we're still under substantial negotiations with them. So, and the last part, which you will all like, of course, if there's 500 or 600 aircraft sitting down, that means less available capacity for everybody.
Well, that tends to protect yields, or it has tended to protect yields in the past when equivalent things have happened, regardless of what was the reason for that particular shortfall. So that's the only, you know, what can I say? Indirect effect of positive effect to the market, not to us, to the market, by having a specific type of aircraft go through specific requirements of inspection that reduce the effective capacity in the market. I hope I've answered your question.
Yeah, you did, you did. And on that extension of five leased aircraft, do you have any possibility of renegotiating the leases, or that is well covered in your answer about saying that?
Not in a positive way. So to everybody, I mean, I think you can go to any single benchmark in the market, and you will see that lease rates have increased significantly. What is the-
Yeah
...case for us, for which we feel very happy, is that we stood by our order with Airbus during the COVID. We didn't cancel anything. We continued with our obligations. We have extended our order, and therefore, in a market which seems to have continuous supply-related, logistics-related, spare parts-related, technical-related problems, we have secured a larger amount of aircraft in the larger derivatives than we had anticipated in the beginning. And we have locked terms for these aircraft that cannot be affected by such short-term effects, like the lease rates of aircraft that you will opportunistically secure to cover shortfalls... in the market. So, that's what makes me more comfortable.
That's what makes us more assured of our long-term cost and not suffering the effects of such, let's say, anomalies in the market for too long. But on the other hand, let's be real, when there's 500-600 aircraft missing from the market from what used to fly, leases are gonna go up.
Yeah. No, I agree. Agree. And just extending this point a bit, you know, so, I mean, of course, if you're grounding the planes, and you will fly less capacity, are you worried or concerned about a potential takeover or potential grab of market share by the competitors? Because, I mean, if you see the competition, I think Lufthansa, Lufthansa, IAG, and Air France, I think Air France has zero impact due to this engine issues because they don't have CF, they don't have Pratt. Even Ryanair doesn't have Pratt. And then, I think those are quite a big players flying to Greece. So are you concerned about...
Because, I mean, I think if you look at the market, I mean, I think Wizz Air, who is also impacted badly due to Pratt, I think they're also concerned about Ryanair grabbing market share, some of the market share, and hence they are sort of thinking about targeting the, they're tapping the secondary market to have more capacity. So in that case, are you concerned about a potential risk to some of the market share? Of course, not much, but some of the market share grabbing by the competitors. And secondly, you just made a comment about the potential benefit to the yield due to tight capacity.
I mean, if I look at my communication or my discussions with IAG, Lufthansa, Air France, Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz, everybody, I mean, I think most of the airlines are probably of the opinion that while definitely yields is an outcome of demand, supply, and now the supply is tight, but the key question is, the fares are already very high. So do we really expect the fare to go up further? Do we expect yields to benefit from this tightness in the capacity? Or do we think that probably yields might not, or fares might not decline due to this, but the upside is less? I mean, how do you think this?
... No, no, let's not. It's definitely the last part. I mean, we have seen extremely good yields in the last 18 months, and I think people in the market would be very happy to see them stay around about the same levels. I agree with you, it is a overly optimistic assumption to expect yield to further increase. It's one thing to say they will not further increase, and it's another thing to say they will not decline as much as they would had there been another 600 aircraft in the market. Those are two different things, right?
So there's an effect, even though you cannot take this effect and just put +5, +3, +6 in your estimate relative to 2023, you have to compare it with what it would have been had there not been this issue, which is a theoretical number. Now, are we afraid? I explained earlier on, we will be flying more out of Athens and Thessaloniki, and we will be flying more in terms of scheduled capacity relative to 2023, which was significantly higher than 2022, and we are, as far as I know, the only non-low-cost carrier in Europe that is actually flying more ASKs already than it was in 2019. At least among the listed companies, which I can observe in terms of declaration.
So our scheduled capacity will not decline. It will increase, and it will particularly increase out of Athens and Thessaloniki. What are we doing? We are reducing our charter capacity by from 6 aircraft to 2. Well, our charter capacity does not technically operate for us. It operates for tour operators. And we work for the tour operators, delivering to their customers, so it doesn't have any strategic relevance to AEGEAN other than the relationship with the particular tour operator, which is also not bad to have, of course, because on occasion, you can make a little bit of money flying there, and you, you, you keep your overall capacity and hopefully efficiency levels higher if you fly that. But on the other hand, it's not scheduled.
It's not like you're going back on anything that you have developed and spent money on developing and maturing them. So anything that we are doing well in, anything that we want to continue to develop positively in terms of capacity, will be developed positively in terms of capacity without having an effect from the shortfall. Because the effect will be felt at the reduction of the charter level, full stop. What remains, however, is the cost effect of additional aircraft not flying and of the shift in the consumption and the average consumption of, of, of fuel and part of the maintenance cost, because you will be using, you will not be using 10 young aircraft, and you will be using 10 older aircraft. Okay?
So this is, this is what is going to be left, but we're not going to allow ourselves to be put in a situation where we're not developing what we need to develop, and what we see to have been successful in development, either in margin and commercial scope, in the last few years. That's why we've chosen to reduce charter.
Right. Right. No, fair enough. The other thing, I wanted to understand about any thoughts around your ex-fuel unit cost. I mean, of course, you mentioned about the higher fuel cost, because of the less efficient flying.
... I really don't want to get into that now. I would, you know, respectfully request that you ask that offline from our two investor relations people, to the degree they can respond to it right now, because it's still a work in progress for us in terms of having a full budget for next year for a variety of reasons.
Okay, perfect. And then last question, if I may. By the way, your Investor Relations team is really superb, wonderful. Hats off to them. They're great.
They have a bad chairman, so they better be good.
No, superb. You know, a great team. Last question, if I may. Another key question, which is flying around, is that, okay, fine, 2024 will be impacted due to a lot of grounding. A lot of, I mean, aircraft will be grounded, so unit costs will go up and all that sort of thing. But then what happens when all these planes comes back in 2025? So would there be an overcapacity situation? And I think that is one of the key question and key concern.
In your case, of course, you'll be adding some more aircraft, and probably, I'm not sure if these five leases which are expiring, which you are extending this time, are you going to return those in 2026, sorry, 2025. So do you see that any kind of overcapacity risk going into 2025, which means the first normalized year could be 2026 now? How do you see that, please?
To be honest, as far as 2025 goes, I am more concerned about making sure that the effect of this cycle of repairing inspection has less or equal an effect to our overall operation as it does in 2024. What I'm trying to saying is the following: I answered earlier on that next year, in total, we will accept 6 aircraft, okay? And also probably in the beginning of 2025, some more.
So by accepting the more aircraft we have, and assuming that the number of aircraft that on a sort of a cyclical basis, because of the requirement of time to be spent in inspection and waiting for the MRO to free up a post, remains at round about average of 10 aircraft, then going into 25, this is still going to be 10 aircraft, but it should be 10 aircraft out of a larger total fleet of neos, and therefore we'll have more neos flying.
So the most concerning thing for us is to ensure that with the actual implementation of the inspection and repair cycle by the manufacturer, we will secure that in 2025, we will actually have more neos flying, even though the total number grounded might be the same as we do in 2024. So I would say the initial, let's say, risk for the market and ourselves is the opposite of overcapacity for 2025, okay? And then comes 2026, where we all hope that this issue will have run full circle, and everything will have gone through this repair and inspection cycle, and we will have it behind us. But it's too far away to be able to tell you, you know, what the market dynamics will be then.
So, all I can say now is that for 2024 and for 2025, what appears to be the more, let's say, concerning aspect, is to make sure that what the manufacturer is saying is going to be the pace of inspection and repair due to the undercapacity of the MROs that need to do the inspections and the repairs, will not be worse than what is expected. So our shortfall, either for the end of 2024 or for 2025, will not be greater than what we now expect. And so that is our main risk. I don't think the problem, nobody thinks the problem will be over before summer 2026. So, there is no, let's say, indication that this will automatically resolve itself at end 2024 and half 2025, be overcapacitated.
What will happen, frankly, in 2026 is simply too far away for me to tell. I'm being entirely honest.
Yeah. Perfect. Thank you so much, and wish you good luck.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Vassilakis for any closing comments. Thank you.
Thank you all for being on our call for more than an hour. I'm once again, I'm very happy about our results and about the way the year is proceeding to its close. Also very happy to be announcing that we'll be paying a dividend for next year, and I'll be even happier when we announce how much it will be, at, at, during our prior to our AGM next year. So, thank you very much. Have a good weekend, and talk to you soon.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.