Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Gail, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining The Metlen Energy & Metals Financial Results Conference Call to present and discuss The Metlen Full Year 2024 Financial Results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Evangelos Mytilineos, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, and other senior executives. Mr. Mytilineos, you may now proceed.
Good afternoon, everybody from Greece and overseas, from all foreign countries where we have a lot of friends, and they're all here today to discuss our results for 2024. I don't know how things are where you are. Athens is terribly cold and miserable, I would say. But still, we don't have miserable results, so we are in good mood. As you have all seen, we have a slight increase in our turnover in 2024. This slight increase is going to look like it's going to increase considerably next year. Our net profitability is more or less the same like last year. Our operational profitability, EBITDA, is up by 7%, and it is a record for the history of the company.
Our leverage is, as always, under control, with 1.7 something leverage net debt to EBITDA. The very interesting liquidity consisting of cash and immediately bankable securities and committed lines, which is a good firepower for all the investment program of potential M&A going forward. The proposed dividend for 2024 is EUR 1.5 per share, which, as you remember from last year, goes up in order to adjust for the shares that the company already owns. So we expect something between 153-155, depending on that date how many shares we own. So we have maintained our dividends in order to thank our shareholders for their continuing support to the company.
It's been a difficult year, I have to say, 2024. You all know what's happening around the geopolitical developments for us, but not only for our company, I think. It's the number one concern that CEOs all over the world have. This year, 2025, the theater of geopolitical tensions globally has expanded considerably around the world, as I'm sure you all know. Let's hope all this is for the good, it's for the peace, it's for a new era where we return to normal.
After so many years of turbulence with COVID, and then with the massive energy crisis, and then with the geopolitical turbulence, it's been very, very challenging years. Interestingly, in these challenging years, we have, as I said last year, we have changed the position where we operate. We've gone up a few steps. Last year and the year before last, especially, it was interesting that a lot of people were saying that that was a temporary blip, a temporary phenomenon, and that will probably stay like this for a year or two, and then that's it with Mytilineos and the billion-plus EBITDA and the extraordinary 600-plus million of net profitability.
I'm sorry for all these guys that have this kind of approach to our results, but they didn't read the story very well. The reality has proven to be quite different than what they thought. Not only have we established ourselves above the one billion mark, but as we say in our press release, these last three years, we see them as a preparation for the next step for which we are all working very much in order to present it in detail during our Capital Markets Day in London on the 28th of April this year, which is going to be a very interesting day.
A lot of things were discussed, I think. I could speak to you for hours, as you know, about the situation in the company, about the prospects as well, as about the global financial and political and geopolitical situation. But I prefer to give the floor to you and give you the chance to ask whatever you want. All of us here, myself and the executives that are all around the table here, are ready to answer any question or discuss anything that may be of interest to you. Before I give you the floor, I will comment on some questions that have arrived today from some of you, and then we go live to your questions.
I start with Mr. Roumantzis, Vasilis from Piraeus Securities, which goes like, "Thank you for the presentation and congratulations for the strong results." A couple of questions, please. One, which are the main drivers for further profitability growth in the coming years, 2025, 2028? Number two, could you please discuss the implication for Metlen of a potential end of the Ukrainian war? I'll start with the second, which I'm sure is in the mind of all of you. It's a very good question and very much to the point. We are talking about peace in Ukraine, but it is as important as the peace. It is what kind of peace we are going to have. One peace from another makes a huge difference.
One peace where everybody is satisfied with whatever they have to offer and whatever they got in return is one thing. One peace where Ukraine collapses and becomes a failed state, or even in a situation of civil war, it's another kind of peace. I would very much like to comment on this question, but before I do, I think it would be much more prudent to see what kind of peace we're talking about first. Let's be a little patient. I think news is running fast. News is unfolding very, very quickly.
Then I'm sure I will be asked to comment then on what kind of peace we have and what are the implications for Metlen. On the first question, what are the main drivers for further profitability? The way things are going for us, we have two kinds of categories of sources where we expect our profitability to grow. One is the existing businesses, which are supplemented by organic growth and substantial organic growth, I would say. As I said at the beginning of my speech, at the very beginning, commenting on the turnover, our first indications show a considerable rise in our turnover starting from the Q1.
That means our organic growth is on track. Smaller M&As here and there, which are helping the different divisions and segments, are in place, and they help support the business further. For example, let's take Energy Customer Solutions, supplies, for example, which is mostly retail of foreign gas. As you have seen, we're constantly increasing our market share, and that is improving our numbers, both in turnover on midline and bottom line. Just an example. On top of our organic growth, we supplement the existing businesses in the organic growth side with new investments like the one we announced last month, which is a landmark investment.
I'm sure it has been duly understood and appreciated by all the analyst community. And then also two more considerable corporate actions on the investment side, which will be announced and explained in detail in our Capital Markets Day in London on April 28th. I'm sorry I don't do it now. I would like to keep you waiting, but there are things going on. When in London, where I hope to see as many of you as you can be there, you will realize why we need all this time to be more precise in our announcements.
I continue with Mr. Ioannis Masvoulas from Morgan Stanley. Question number one, quick questions on net financials. What explains the 59% year-on-year increase of financials to EUR 170 million? What shall we assume for 2025? I will ask Ms. Kontogianni to comment on this one.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you, Yanni, for always submitting very interesting questions. On page 16 of our today released document, you will find the levels of our debt for 2024 and the comparable period. The company has increased its debt by approximately EUR 1.1 billion for the end of 2024 versus 2023, at a very competitive interest rate, of course.
Debt increase for the company for the year is very highly related to the company's investment plan execution, and specifically, the renewables construction and development not only increased, but also internationally. What we expect for 2025, most probably we will see worst-case same level of debt and financial expenses, if not lower. We will try to be lower than 2024. Thank you.
Thank you, Eleftheria. Question number two, what level of profitability can we anticipate once the new alumina gallium investment reaches full ramp-up? Yanni, if you go back to our public figures that have been announced in the previous quarters and years, it will be very easy for you to see the margins in our alumina business. So then you can make your calculations, and you will arrive at the proper conclusions. The gallium investment, as we speak, is a golden investment.
The margins are high, and because of the situation in China, which has more or less forbidden exports of gallium, the price has gone through the roof. At the moment, it's about $1 million per ton. But that will depend on the Chinese behavior. When you get involved in rare earths and rare metals, you have to be careful on your cost side because usually, these rare earths or rare metals or whatever, they are controlled by very few participants globally, and the price levels can be volatile or extreme. So you have to have a cost level as low as possible so that you can live through difficult times when they arrive.
But other than that, if prices stay where they are, it may well be one of the best businesses in our group in general. But let's see how it goes. Our attention, our care is for the plants to be at the best possible specs and standards, and therefore provide the lowest possible cost level. Question number three, in 2024, you achieved 1 gigawatt of asset rotation sales. Should we assume a similar or a bit higher run rate going forward? I think, as we speak, that the 1 gigawatt level on the asset rotation may be the minimum for the next few years. We hope that this will be augmented and supplemented by batteries, which batteries are becoming now the hot issue in the renewable industry space.
I continue with Mr. Vangelis Karanikas of NBG Securities. Number one, could you please provide an update of our potential listing to LSE regarding timing, listing procedure, etc.? Ms. Fotini Ioannou will reply to your question about all this timing, listing procedure, etc.
Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you, Vangelis, for the question. As you all know, we have submitted our first draft to the LSE just before the end of the year. We are well on the way with all the preparations needed for the technical relisting. At the moment, the expectation is that the listing will take place at the beginning of Q3 2025. Thank you.
That's where we are. Let's see how it goes. Our relations with the FCA and the LSE are excellent. Indeed, our venue on the 28th of April will take place at the premises of the LSE at the City of London, courtesy of the invitation of the LSE. We have a very good relationship. We don't have any particular delays. But of course, the actual date, if I would like to be more accurate, I would have to be able to read what the results of our extraordinary general meeting of our shareholders, the outcome will be, because as you very well all know, we need 90% of our shareholders to agree on their listing schedule. So let's hope everything is going to be all right and there will be no delays.
So far, we have no delays. Number two, the electricity generation and supply subsegments are emerging as key profitability drivers for the group. Could you please elaborate more on the future prospects of the Greek utility business, especially given the volatility of natural gas and wholesale electricity prices? We have to see the energy generation management, the customer solution segment, and the natural gas trading as one big segment. As a matter of fact, in this transformation we're talking about, it may become one segment after all. Because we are finding out that these three subsegments are linked between them.
Therefore, it may be easier and more accurate for you to understand one figure instead of three. You will have more news on this one during our Capital Markets Day. Now, particularly on the energy generation, we live in a period where European energy, which is very essential for the Greek market as well, is very volatile. Natural gas is very volatile. It is extremely linked to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the overall geopolitical situation, as I have said many times in the past, and so on.
On the retail side, as you know, we are reaching now, maybe next month we will reach the 20% threshold, including the Volterra acquisition, which means we are on track to achieve our 30% goal. We have two choices. 30% is not a number that we picked because we like it; it's a very round figure. It's not exactly the case. 30% is 30% because it serves the overall purpose of our Greek utility business. Now, to get from 20% - 30%, you need either to have another acquisition, preferably sizable, or go aggressive on the retail side. Financially, it may be less costly to go aggressively on the retail side, which is what we have done in the last nine months, and I'm sure you have all seen.
Even two or three days ago, we announced that even in March, which is a cold month, and we expect higher prices, we expect we have kept our prices for the ninth month. We keep them steady. It may be less costly to increase your market share in a more solid way as well, of course, with a lot of promotion, which costs money, instead of buying as long as price expectations in the market are higher than what our own figures show should imply. As far as the gas trading is concerned, last year was a very bad year. Gas giants like Shell, BP, Trafigura, and others have lost more than 50% of their profitability. So our figures are not different than the biggest boys in the industry.
It was a very difficult year. Maybe a better year this year. Prices are higher, volatility is higher, so it may be a good year for these segments. Number three, could you please provide the target for net debt to EBITDA for full year 2025? Mr. Gavalas, I think he knows better than me. So Christos, if you please.
Thank you, Chairman. Thank you for asking it, Vangelis. So the answer is that according to the plans we're having for the 2025 year, according to what Eleftheria said before, we anticipate ratios to get better, net leverage to go lower. So we do always expect, according to the financial policy that we have, to have an adjusted to the project finance type of debt that we own, ratios below two. We are already at 1.7, so you may imply that this is going to be much better next year. Thank you. No, sorry, next year, this year. Sorry.
Good news for all of us. I like to hear this piece of news, and I'm sure you do like it too, so I continue with Mr. Stefan Chaligné, who is a shareholder of our company, and has a question here, which goes like, how should we link the Rio Tinto agreement in light of the Ghana project? These are two separate deals. The Rio Tinto, which I'm not 100% sure how much in such a short period of time has been appreciated and calculated in kind by the market, but we're not in a hurry. The market will soon make its own assessment, calculations, and will come up, I'm sure, with the proper findings. Ghana is a different case. We have a presence in Ghana for the last maybe 10 or 15 years.
We have taken a license for acceleration in a very, very big and interesting bauxite mine, which is continued, unobstructed. The quality of the Ghana bauxite is probably one of the best in the world, and the only thing that links the Rio Tinto deal with the Ghana deal is our firm belief within our company that sooner or later, bauxite is going to run in supply difficulties.
I don't see any surprise crunch because it's not going to be from one day to another, but if you consider, I've said that before, if you consider that 70% of Chinese imports, which are dozens of millions of tons a year, are coming from a small African nation, Guinea, in West Africa, on the coast, on the Atlantic coast, and the instability of the country, as well as many other countries in Africa, is considerable, political-wise, military-wise, and so on. Anything that can happen there, which happened last year, sent the price of aluminum from $300-$800.
What this means, it means that huge buyers like the Chinese, they are concentrating so much procurement from a single country because they have run out of options. Their own stocks, and I'm talking about a huge country like China, have been more or less depleted. They have to import maybe 70-plus% of their needs. The quality of the bauxite left in the country is very low. And there are other countries where the price of energy, like for example, in Australia, I was reading today that Rio Tinto is contemplating to shut the Tomago smelter outside Sydney, I think, which is a big 200,000 smelter.
And where Mr. Stefanos Giourelis, our own general director of our metallurgy business unit, used to work until he came to us when we bought the Aluminium of Greece. So they are thinking a lot about what to do on the power side. So because of all these reasons, deals like the one with Rio Tinto or with Ghana, it secures bauxite supply, which has become probably the most important issue in the aluminum supply chain. And that's it. No other connection between the two deals. Mr. Nikos Athanasoulias from Eurobank Equities, number one, considering your 11-gigawatt renewables portfolio, how do you see your own renewable capacity evolving in the coming years?
Regarding the asset rotation model and the record 1-gigawatt portfolio sales, is there a limit to the capacity you expect to dispose of annually? So this is two questions in one. As I said five minutes ago, I think one gigawatt of our own capacity is the minimum. And I think we are going to reach sooner or later the 2,000 GW, which is our target. We don't have plans to go beyond that for the time being, which is part of our overall strategy, supplementing the utility part that I talked to you five minutes ago. About the asset rotation model, again, the one-giga of sales, the question is if there is a limit to expand the capacity of the disposals and so on.
The question of execution is probably around the world now the most important thing in renewables, and not only renewables, because the world, or many parts of the world, they don't have skilled labor force. They don't have enough competent people for proper execution of big deals. That's why we see a lot of big players in the market, which tried to make their own efforts to build their own renewable installations, other solar or batteries or wind, and they are coming back to the market asking for EPC service. That, as you know, used to be the business where we started the renewable entry, and we are still one of the biggest in the world.
So our EPC business is thriving again after three or four years, and I think soon we will be able to announce a very big deal on the EPC renewable side. So our capacity to execute is constantly tried, is constantly increasing with a lot of effort, a lot of pain, a lot of human capital, because it's also many countries around the world. But I think the capacity that you're asking about, maybe we have some more capacity left. Let's put it this way. Number two, following the agreement with Rio Tinto announces, what will be the financial impact of the aluminum capacity expansion? Does this two-way contract include fixed pricing or fixed margins?
Regarding the terms of the two-way contract, it is impossible for me to make any comment. This is a deal with Rio Tinto, and I'm not sure they want to disclose the terms of the agreement, especially the commercial terms of the agreement. So I'm sorry about that. I repeat what I said a few minutes ago. If you go through your figures about alumina, you will see what the margins of alumina are. And then, of course, the financial impact. I can assure you the financial impact is going to be substantial as long as you can treat the London Metal Exchange properly with some good experience, and you can have competitive gas to feed your refineries.
I think we have proven records on both counts. Number three, how do you plan to further expand your electricity supply business to achieve your 30% market share? Do the softer results in the second half of the year suggest a low-pricing strategy to scale the business? I will be very frank and very straightforward. The answer is yes. The softer results in the second half of the year suggest that we are very aggressive in the market instead of making an acquisition at the moment, which is going to be much pricier than going aggressive in the market. Mr. Ioannis Nikokiratsis, Alpha Finance.
Congratulations for the recent announcements regarding expansionary efforts in the metal sector. Two questions from my side. One, recently, there have been comments by one of the leading politicians in Germany contemplating to build 50 gas-fired power plants in the country. In view of this statement, how do you see the fossil fuels market evolving in Greece and in Europe? What are the market dynamics? I think the figure actually is not 50, it's 10. 10 power plants. I think the 50 is wrong. You know my personal view, I've said it again and again.
The fossil fuel market is going to be around for a number of years, both as far as oil is concerned, but especially as far as gas is concerned, for reasons that we had also in our last AGM to talk about extensively. We believe that gas in 2050 is still going to be around, and this is my narrow personal belief. Oil is still going to be around then. Number two, in the recent past, you have commented on interconnections in Europe and their importance, expressing the potential growth prospects. What are your thoughts on this, and does Metlen expect to increase its efforts to expand in the specified market?
Number two, I think if my information is correct, the main part of the new energy handbook that the commission is going to announce on February 26th is underlying the interconnections issue as the most important for the prices of energy and the free circulation of energy around the countries of the European Union, which is true, by the way. The problem with this is that the money that is needed is going to be in the trillions, not billions. I'm not sure where this money is going to come from. In the meantime, that will take maybe 10 years. In the meantime, we have heavy industry, intensive industry.
We have households that are really suffering from high prices. I have not seen, of course, the last paper of the European Commission. I would be extremely disappointed if there are no elements of immediate relief for industry and households, and we don't have to expect completion of the grids and other infrastructures for another 10 years. In the recent past, number two, in the recent past, you have commented on interconnections. Sorry, that's exactly what we said. Metlen, of course, has a presence on the grid side. As you know, three days ago, we commenced operations.
We had the inauguration in England for the landmark project which connects Scotland with England and has a value of GBP 2.5 billion. I continue with Mr. Vasilis Kollias from Pantelakis Securities. What drove the 33% in customer solutions EBITDA despite the market share expansion of 18.5% from the 13.5% a year earlier? While I understand that electricity prices remain largely stable throughout most of H2, despite the 14% year-on-year increase in DAM prices over the period, the EBITDA generation of just €2 million appears notably low. Were there any additional one-off costs weighing on profitability?
I think the answer I gave to a colleague of yours a few minutes ago about our commercial policy in power is covering your question. Number two, regarding the recently approved GBP 295.5 million investment in gallium production and alumina bauxite capacity expansion with 56% of the funding expected to be subsidized by the EU, is there any concern that the EU might impose price caps on gallium given its currently elevated levels of GBP 1,000 per kilogram? Furthermore, is there a risk that China could flood the global market with the low price of gallium as observed in previous instances?
This is a question which I also replied a few minutes ago, except for the E.U. imposition of price cap on gallium, which I think is a joke because on such a rare material to impose a price cap, simply you will not be able to find it anywhere. It's as simple as that. Number three, do you anticipate any indirect impact from Trump's policy regarding the imposition of tariffs on aluminum imports from the E.U., given that you do not export to the U.S.? Could the policy affect supply chains or global aluminum prices in a way that might influence your operations?
The only impact of President Trump's imposition of tariffs on aluminum will be the increase of the aluminum prices within the United States by 25%. There will be no other change. 70% of the aluminum that is being imported in the United States, which is a heavily imported country in aluminum, 70% is coming from Canada. Now, how the Americans can avoid the tariff is I cannot see this possibility. So they'll have to pay the tariff, being the material Canadian, Mexican, or whatever, European. Europeans have nothing to export to the U.S. anyway. They need it all in Europe, and we are still in a large deficit.
So my answer is I hardly see any big change in the supply chain or any other. So that was a set of questions that were given to us the whole of the day today. And we are now at your disposal to ask any questions that you may have or anything that you would like to discuss with us from our 2024 accounts or anything else. Please.
The first question comes from the line of Jason Fairclough with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yep. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Yassas. Thanks for the call today. Look, I'm just reading through your flash note with interest, and I think you have a code name here, code name Big Three, and you say that the news around bauxite and alumina and Rio Tinto, that's just the first part of it. Is there anything else that you can share with us about Big Three and I guess how transformative could this be?
Thank you, Jason. If you had followed our company for the last 10 years, you would have known that we have our first transformation, which was called the Big One, in 2017 until 2020. It was a big transformation. And then we had transformation number two, code name Big Two, which was also very substantial and brought us to the level where we are more or less now. And now Big Three is going to consist of internal organizational changes as well as big organic growth announcements and possible acquisitions. That is going to be the Big Three. It's going to be concrete and in detail in our Capital Markets Day. Thank you.
Just if I could follow up, if you don't mind. In terms of the cooperation that you've signed here with Rio Tinto, is that the model that we should think about going forward? Are you going to be doing a lot more with other metals and mining companies, or is it going to be this is a one-off?
I'd love to do that. My problem is I don't have any more alumina. And no immediate plans to expand our capacity further than 1.265 million tons. So the metal element is going definitely to be there in the Big Three, but not on the alumina side. I think we have reached a limit where there's no more possible capacity expansions.
Okay. Well, we'll see you in London on the 28th of April. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Krishan Agarwal with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Can you hear me?
Yes, yes. Go ahead, please.
Yeah, yeah. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. I have two, if I may. The first one is mechanical in the nature. If you can specify the CapEx guidance for 2025, after the lot of CapEx you've spent in the last two years, is that coming down? And the second question is more of a long-term in nature. So with the transformation in the last five years, you have delivered tripling of the EBITDA from €300 million to €1 billion.
And then going forward, I see four, five big catalysts, which are alumina expansion, Rio partnership, Greek renewable build-out, the battery expansion, and the asset rotation. So if I put together all of these catalysts and then the things that you're going to talk into the capital markets, is it fair to expect that €2 billion sort of EBITDA in the next five years is a realistic possibility?
Thank you, Krishan. Eleftheria is going to answer your question about CapEx, your first question. I'll come back on the second one.
Hi, Krishan. On my side, I'm taking the first part of your question. Hi. Hi, again. I'm going to repeat because there was a technical problem on the line, I think. I'm reminding very quickly the historical figures of CapEx for the last previous years. For 2024, we stand on EUR 800 million. For 2023, this was over EUR 1 billion, where for 2022 was over EUR 700 million. For all the periods, may I remind you that the company's CapEx spending is almost 90% dedicated to what we call internally growth CapEx.
This is mainly construction and development of renewables in the country and internationally, again. What we estimate going forward is that we will not see again the peaks near EUR 1 billion, especially for 2025, Krishan. Most probably, CapEx will be low 2024 levels. Thank you.
Thank you, Eleftheria. Your second question about EBITDA going forward. I'll get out of my way a little bit because I wish I could say everything in capital markets today, but I'll make an exception here because I know you know the company very well, and I know when you speak figures, you know what you're talking about. On the second and last submission to the FCA at the end of March, our EBITDA for 2028 will look like something 2 plus billion without M&A. Thank you.
That's good to hear. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Richard Hatch with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks very much for the call. I've just got a question about aluminum or the metals costs. So it seems like you've done very well in terms of your margins in 2024 versus 2023. I'm just trying to understand a bit about what's going on in the cost line for metals. Can you perhaps just give us some guidance as to what we should think about for metals costs and/or margins into 2025? Thank you.
I'm sure you have been through the figures of our metal division for the last few years, and you know that our performance has been quite high in terms of percentage margins. This year, 2024, was a repeat of the last few years and was not an exception. Maybe slightly higher coming back from previous CHP adjustments that were made at the fourth quarter, and now they appear on 2024 accounts.
Still, we think this year has entered on a high note as far as metallurgy is concerned. I don't want to speak about the whole year. Markets are volatile, as you very well know. But I think for the Q1 that I can speak, we're already in the middle of the Q1. They are going to be very good.
Okay. Thank you. Very helpful. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, we will now conclude the Q&A session. And I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Mytilineos for any closing comments. Thank you.
Are you sure there are no more questions? Because I enjoy this conversation.
Right now, we don't have another question unless somebody wants to register again. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Spanoudakis with Optima Bank. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you very much for the sustainable good results for the last five years from Metlen and for all the questions that you always answer in the presentations. My question is that there is a high possibility that in the next two months, the Russia and Ukrainian war will be over. In this possibility, if Russia opens the flow of natural gas in Europe, what will be the result in the price of natural gas for Metlen and for electricity? Your experience is huge in these two departments, so we would like to answer this. Thank you.
What a lovely question, anyway. So it is a serious possibility that starting 2025, new substantial Qatari production is going to hit the market. I remind you that Qataris have planned to double their production gradually within the next two or three years from 77 million tons a year to 150 million plus. Needless to tell you, what's happening in the Gulf of Mexico or, I'm sorry, Gulf of America, I meant.
And if on top of that, you add a complete lifting of the sanctions of Russian gas, including Arctic LNG 2 and the pipeline system around Europe, there is absolutely no doubt that the prices of gas are going to collapse from about EUR 50 now to maybe less than EUR 20. That's a safe bet. But the geopolitical bet, so the geopolitical bet you have to take yourself. Neither me nor anybody else, I think, can tell you how it's going to play out.
Thank you. Mr. Spanoudakis, are you finished? Yes, thank you.
The next question is from the line of Ioannis Masvoulas with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you very much for the presentation. Just one more question from my side. Given your position in Eurometaux and the fact that you're engaging with the European politicians on several levels, what's your latest view on CBAM, which affects ultimately your aluminum business? We've seen indications that it could be watered down. We've seen indications that might be pushed out. What's your sense on what could happen in the next few days or weeks? Because I believe there is a review coming. Thank you.
Eurometaux and many other organizations, I think most other organizations, is insisting on the complete cancellation of the CBAM. No final decisions yet. The rumors that are coming out of Berlaymont and the European Commission building is that 80% of all the products are going to be out of the list because it is impossible to follow millions of different products on their carbon footprints around the world. Now, if this is going to include aluminum or if this is going to include other metals or not, I'm sorry, Yanis, I don't know. I know as much as that.
I know that there is tremendous pressure on the Commission to forget about the CBAM, which before it starts, it looks like a total disaster, one more disaster for the European Union, I'm afraid. Thank you.
Very clear. And I guess we'll watch this space. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Mytilineos for any closing comments. Thank you.
So usually, at the annual conference call after the annual results, we renew our appointment for the annual general meeting, which I think is usually in June sometime or May, whatever. June. June. Where I give you some guidance for the year when the situation is much more clear. This year may be an exception, and more complete guidance will be given to you during our Capital Markets Day in London at the end of April.
I gave you some hints about how things are going to play out for us in the next five years until 2028, the next four years, actually. We are very much on track. I confirmed to you the figure of €2 billion plus for 2028, but that is without M&A, one of which can be very, very substantial and is going to change the figures materially. But let's see how things are going to play out. Thank you all very much, and I wish you all a good evening. Thank you.