A2A S.p.A. (BIT:A2A)
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Earnings Call: H1 2024

Jul 30, 2024

Operator

Buongiorno e benvenuti alla.

Speaker 8

Good afternoon, and welcome to A2A Marco Angelo Patuano 2024 results. My name is Zack. I will be your operator for today's event. For the duration of the call, your lines will be in listening mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask your questions at the end or during the conference by pressing star one on your device's keypad. If you need assistance during the call, you can select star zero on your telephone keypad, and you will be contacted by an operator. I will now hand over to Marco Porro, Head of Investor Relations, to start today's call.

Marco Porro
Head of Investor Relations, A2A

Buon pomeriggio a tutti, grazie di essere.

Speaker 8

Good afternoon, thanks for taking part in the presentation of H1 2024 results. As you have seen in the recent press releases, there are many topics to be debated. Without any further ado, I hand over to our CEO, Renato Mazzoncini.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

Good afternoon, thanks for taking part in this conference call. As you might have seen in the latest press releases yesterday and today, we start a happy holiday. The reasons for that are here to be seen. We will first look at H1 results, the reason for being happy with some specific highlights. As you see, we have a positive hydro contribution. There are three topics here that are necessary to get good results from hydro generation. First, you need water. It has been raining a lot, and this has enabled us to have large volumes for the water turbines.

Second, we have very high plant efficiency. Availability of plants exceeds 99%, which is not usual for plants that typically have lower operating times. In some cases, they have been working around the clock. So, this stems from good maintenance, good governance, and good operation of these plants. And third, we have the dynamics of hedging. So we have very high achieved single domestic prices thanks to the mix between the hedged part and the minority part, which is not hedged. Then they have been very positive market margins. The customer base of the free market has grown, and all in all, the closing of the Liberalization campaign has been very positive for us. We have been awarded tenders and orders in all the calls for bids in the last few years, and the margins continue to be significant.

And then regulated business markets, Electricity Distribution, where we are investing significantly, but also Gas and Water Cycle have generated significant margins thanks to the RAB growth and to the results of investments made in the last few years. So we have thermal electric production, which is a negative note. This is offsetting renewable energy sources, taking the lion's share. We have exceeded 60% of RES. If we consider also waste to energy, we then reach 65%. And also the DSM margin has reduced as a consequence of that, and part of this is accounted for by hydroelectric plants. Let's move on. As you can see here, we summarize the main achievements looking at the main ESG KPIs. Here you see some data. There are the results of the incredible impact of RES, most of all hydroelectric, in this first half year.

In Scope 1 and 2, looking at the g CO₂/ kWh, we have -41%. 226gCo ₂ /kWh is the target we have set until 2030, w hen we have done SBTi certification using as a reference 2017 when we had about 400 g Co ₂ /kWh . So here you see 61% renewable energy generation with an increase of 27%. We have increased by 10% the overall installed capacity of our electricity networks, which means that peak power we are here over-investing, considering our depreciations and amortizations to have from 1.7GW-2.7 GW as installed capacity with an increase in RABs and the attendant economics. We keep reducing water losses, and we are also very glad of having been able to reduce the injury frequency.

Looking at financials, as you know, we have issued our first hybrid bond, which has been very successful. In general, the sustainable finance framework is evolving very positively.

Then we have the financial part that is being tightly monitored. Here you see some details. We have increased by 31%. This is one bullet point of the press release, our Capex in electricity network. We have opened the largest rooftop photovoltaic system in Italy, the second largest in Europe, in Fiera Milano, with about 300,000 square meters of photovoltaic panels installed on the roofs of a city like Milan. A very large system for self-generation. We are also continuing investments in the water cycle. There is a new water purification plant in the province of Brescia, where, as you know, we manage the water cycle. The results are self-explanatory. Good news, we have here lower revenues, which means that the bills of our companies, of our citizens, the Italian competitiveness has been improving compared to the same period last year.

This is driven by the dynamics for commodities. EBITDA, w e will then see later why we consider this EBITDA to be recurring. It reaches a very high level with a growth by 46% on ordinary EBITDA, and this is dragging also an impact on group net income, which grows by 75%. Ordinary group net income increases by 86%. Net financial position allows us to approach the year end when we will close the transaction with an acquisition in a very good position. The difference between 1.7 and 2 is that here we are considering the hybrid component. In the 2, we are not considering that. So that's the impact of the EUR 742 million on the net financial position. So we are therefore in a very stable, very good situation. Consider the other press release. In the Q&A, for sure, you will ask me to provide more details.

That is, with Ascopiave, a disposal of some of our assets. I will now hand over to Luca, who will provide more details of EBITDA evolution.

Luca Moroni
Financial Reporting Manager, A2A

Thank you very much indeed, and good afternoon also on my side. Slide five. We comment here on the performance of the EBITDA growing by EUR 399 million, 46% increase compared to last year. As you can see in the bar chart, this is mainly driven by the very good performance in Generation and Market, with a very good performance also of Smart Infrastructures and a stable performance in Waste. We will comment more in detail on this business unit. There are some specific slides on that. Let me just tell you that we have had a very good industrial performance, which has more than offset the energy scenario, which compared to last year in Waste has led to lower margins.

Let's now comment on each business unit. We have a first Generation and Trading, very good industrial performance, most of all for renewable energy sources, as anticipated by Renato. They have performed extremely well, both in terms of generation and also in terms of operating hours. And also thanks to the very high hydro levels. Also, the other RES have recorded a very positive performance if we consider the delta perimeter for wind energy that we have had, which has allowed us to increase generation EUR 294 million in total, more than last year, driving the growth in Generation. This is offset by EUR 9 million for so-called flexible plants, i.e., thermal production. Here, under this item, we have an additional breakdown.

We have a decrease in thermal electric production, about EUR 67 million, which have been more than offset by the good performance of the Gas Industrial portfolio and how it has been managed. Capacity Market is doing well, while the last block is about Trading, EUR 35 million less than last year, also because of the decrease in commodity prices and because of the volatility of prices. EUR 552 million at ordinary level, EBITDA in H1, looking at Trading and Generation with significant growth. On the right-hand side, you see the increase in terms of terawatts from 1.8 TWh to 3.2TWh, considering hydro, wind, and solar, while we have a decrease by 60% to 2 TWh from 5 TWh, looking at the production. Next slide, slide seven, market performance here.

Very solid, +EUR 129 million versus the previous year, same semester, same half, with an increase in margins both in power and in gas, most of all in the retail market. But a good performance was also recorded with medium and large customers. We also benefit from a positive effect, which is a non-negativity that we recorded in the first half of last year as a tail of the effect of the 2022 contracts that took higher volumes, fixed prices, and therefore created some slowdown in the margins in the first quarter of the first half, sorry, of 2023, which produces a positive effect this year. We continue with our retention program, as we previously shared in previous meetings. It includes some EUR 90 million on an annual basis versus EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million of last year.

It's an investment on the customer base for those customers that were repositioned after the energy price crisis of 2022, for which no interventions could be made to review the contracts. On the right-hand side is the customer base market, which grows by 42,000 units, up to 3,000,543. What is most important is the switch between all Gradual Protection Services at the free market. Electricity sales and Gas sales increase respectively by 6% and 7%. On page eight, you see the situation for Waste. As I said before, the performance of Waste is flat versus the first half of 2023, with a slight decrease for collection, with effects that partly offset the higher revenues due to increases in staff costs, also as a result of national employment contracts. A good trend in revenues was recorded, especially in new territories where we were awarded contracts last year.

The treatment is doing very well because a negative performance in the energy scenario is offset by a positive industrial trend or performance, rather, which results in a positive total performance of EUR 2 million, which will show its benefits in the second half of the year. On the next slide, we look at Smart Infrastructures, Networks, basically the effect of past investment that increased the RAB, y ou see it on the charts on the right-hand side. Electricity shows a RAB of 13% higher, and gas shows an increase of 8%. In the water cycle, the RAB grew by 20%. This, coupled with the fact that the remuneration, the return on regulated invested capital increased as from January 1st, this allowed us to record a positive performance on all regulated businesses. So we're doing well in terms of electricity distribution, gas distribution, and water cycle.

Also, the management of TLR, warmth, heat did well. This -EUR 10 million is due to the fact that the tax credits and super bonus are having their negative impact. We're talking about the contribution that was granted by high energy consumption plants last year. If we factor out this element, the effect is positive in terms of EUR 40 million impact on the business scenario for this compartment. Here you see the P&L. So starting from EBITDA of EUR 1,279 billion , we get to EBITDA of EUR 700 million, going to depreciations that increase due to larger investments or investments that we made during the past year. We have EUR 73 millions of appropriations or provisions, risk provisions in terms of opportunities given the excellent results. So we decided to set aside some one-off items. We recorded a good performance for the financial management.

It increases versus the previous year in terms of EUR 8 million. Also thanks to a good management of cash and cash equivalents. Looking at revenues before taxes, we see a profit of EUR 207 million, which increases due to higher revenues before taxes with a tax rate that improved from 30%-29%. EUR 479 million is a net ordinary profit. Then we have a small extraordinary item relating to a collection that generated some capital gain amounting to EUR 11 million net of taxes before taxes.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

Thank you, Luca. Let us focus now on CapEx, page 11. Our CapEx plan is moving forward. As you know, our corporate strategy has been pursuing a very high level of CapEx for years now. We see that we have more than 60% of CapEx under development, +12% compared to last year. In the business plan, we submitted the updated version of 2024. We have EUR 1.5 billion of CapEx for the year.

It's fairly normal that in H1 you have less than half of the CapEx of the year. The situation was the same last year. We closed at EUR 3.4 billion. I would like to focus your attention on three elements: the high percentage of CapEx devoted to development, so to the future. 78% of the CapEx is in line with the EU taxonomy. You see investments on thermal plants like Monfalcone. Then, on the right-hand side, in orange, you see smart infrastructures accounting for the majority, 30% more on electric networks due to our commitment on CapEx to be devoted to electric networks.

Slide 12, you see the cash flow, which, as usual, is constantly monitored very closely. You see the good performance of net free cash flow management, which allows us to have an FFO before dividend of almost in line with the distributed paid-out dividend.

Our operating cash generation has enabled us to fully fund the investments and the dividends paid out. Net working capital is EUR 240 million, and this is due to the effect of fewer gas purchases, considering the reduction in the production of thermal electric plants. Then we are approaching completion of operations from bilateral and OTC arrangements for purchase of commodities, and we have a positive effect on credit management, also thanks to the seasonality effect with decreasing credit volumes in this period of the year. Then we have a part relating to the management of tax and financials with an FFO of EUR 832 million here, which allows us to self-finance to pay the EUR 553 Capex and the EUR 300 million dividends.

Then we have an item relating to the issuance of the bond, EUR 664 NFP variation, allowing to reduce from EUR 4.7 billion end of the year to EUR 4 billion end of June with a leverage of 1.7x. Excluding issuance of the hybrid bond, we have a 2x factor, which allows us to have very high flexibility to tackle the second half of the year. Great. So good news that you have already read is we have decided to increase to improve the guidance in light of these results. It was pretty obvious. We amended upward, so about EUR 2.2 billion. That's the range with a net ordinary income ranging between EUR 700 million and EUR 720 million. The take-home messages of this first section, there are a couple of other items requiring some comments for the future.

Here you see we have a very good performance of all the business units, most especially the revision of guidance is related to energy generation and to the market performance. Then we have the Capex plan, which continues to be deployed without any slowdown in these four years. Also, considering Enel acquisition, we reach about EUR 8 billion Capex, and this is the reason why the EBITDA has grown by about EUR 1 billion versus four years ago. And nevertheless, we have a very effective financial management, which allows us to optimize and control the cost of debt, and the green hybrid bond has been one of the elements which has allowed to do so. A couple of comments about the news we have anticipated. Yesterday, we have published a press release on the asset capacity market. We are very glad. We are talking about tenders.

We have been awarded, and these reflect the technique, the good preparation to take part in these calls for bids in these tenders. We know how to manage the process, and we have been awarded a capacity at a significantly higher price than the price we had envisaged in 2024, so that in 2025, we will have about EUR 80 million more EBITDA versus 2024. We will then take part, of course, in October in the next tenders, over 226 and 227, but the performance has been very positive so far. Consider that in 2025, we will also include the EBITDA of Enel transaction that we are completing. Last week, there was the go, the green light of the Antitrust Authority, which has given us an approval without any limitations. Golden Power is fine.

So two of the suspensive closes have been sold, and as you know, we expect a contribution of about EUR 100 million for 2025, arising from electricity distribution related to this Enel transaction. The transaction announced with Ascopiave a couple of hours ago is a transaction which has been developing in the context of the reflections we were making in our business plan, assuming to cover a part of the Capex of the investments in Enel network with disposal or dismissal or swap transaction. We have been reasoning also on minorities options. We have received an interesting proposal from Ascopiave. It's a company with whom we have already closed a deal.

In the last deal with Romeo, we had comfort almost all of the ATEMs that were non-strategic for us because they were out of our territory or because they were contributing to the ATEMs with very low percentages that had been acquired in a tender from Hera, Acea, and Ascopiave. So this is a company we have already been working together. We have a common assessment criteria , and it's therefore easy to move forward with them. It's worth mentioning that, as written in the press release, we are essentially talking about all of our ATEM gas except for Milan, where we are present at 100%. There has been a tender where we have been awarded the contract, and in these ATEMs, on an average, we had 63%.

If we had decided to remain in this tendering context, we should have invested for 37% for the missing part, so as to take part in the process and be awarded the contracts. In territories like the province of Brescia, which is an important historical base, we had the ATEM where we had a stake of 26% in Brescia 4. In other cases, we had a slightly higher percentage, as it was the case in Brescia 2, 44%, and center of Brescia, 85%. These are all ATEMs where the decision to remain was linked to investments in the development of the gas network, while Milan does not require any CapEx because it's a complete ATEM with a service contract and its own process for the next 12 years, envisaging no additional investments.

We are very happy of that process, and also in this case, the due diligence is going to start immediately after the summer break, and we will be working in good faith so as to come to signing around year-end with an impact on asset transfer if we manage to close the operation, which will take place during 2025, could be mid-2025, as we will see. I think we have given enough news, and now we open the floor to the Q&A.

Operator

Thank you very much. If you have a question or if you want to share your contributions today, you should press Star one on your telephone keypad to withdraw your question. Select Star two. The first question comes from Javier Suárez from Mediobanca. You have the floor.

Javier Suárez
Managing Director, Mediobanca

Hello, good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation.

Operator

Sorry, the audio disappeared. I'm sorry, Javier, we lost you.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

I guess you said you had three questions, but we lost you.

Javier Suárez
Managing Director, Mediobanca

Okay, I'll start again. My first question is, what is a reasonable assumption for hydropower production in 2024 and 2025 from your viewpoint? Connected to this, I would like to know the level of prices that you established for 2024 and 2025, the contribution of the DSM market in the first half, and the expectations for the whole year 2024. The other question is, with regard to the guidance, can you give us guidance in terms of data by year-end? I would like to understand more of the change in working capital, the EUR 240 million net working capital discrepancy, and where do you see it? And then the auction for the capacity market of 2025, we saw the outcome as a reasonable guidance for the auction for 2025 and 2026.

Thinking of 2028, how can the profitability of auctions be impacted as a result of those existing auctions? Thank you.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

Shall we take more questions, or shall we proceed one by one? We answer first. As to the hydro production, Javier, in 2024, if you remember, when we did our last call on the quarterly results, we thought of reaching 4.4 TWh, which is the historical average of the 10-year period 2020-2030. Now, the value is around 4.8 TWh. It's not unlikely for that value to increase as the component effects of a large quantity of water and electric plants that you saw recently, by the way, that are technically performing very, very well. For 2025, we estimate 4.8 TWh, keeping half TWh of half full base to help 2025. As of 2025, today, in our plans, we are cautiously forecasting 4 TWh. So that's a prudent forecast.

We hope that we will get an upside and a downside. In terms of prices, hedging for 2024-2025, as to 2024, if you remember, the hedging we had was in excess of 65%. It has decreased slightly because we have higher production volumes. We are at 59% for an average price of EUR 151. As far as 2025 is concerned, we already covered 40%, hedged 40%, at an average price of EUR 120. So I would say that also for 2025, we are placing ourselves in a good position considering also the energy scenario reflected in the plan, which is at EUR 110.

As for the performance or the trades for DSM, as you saw, the first six months were around EUR 40 million-EUR 45 million, so we plan to close at around EUR 80 million-EUR 85 million. This is the value that we know we'll have probably in the future.

Also, in our business plan, we started from EUR 150 million to then go down on a year-by-year basis to reach EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million in a fairly stable manner, which is what we believe to be reasonable for the next few years. As far as the NFP guidance is concerned, with the working capital in the second part of the year, especially in the last quarter, we will suffer a bit from seasonality. The net working capital will be slightly higher than the first half, again driven and controlled. And in fact, we can easily say that we will hit the target of 2.8x leverage, including the effort for the acquisition of Enel. So within 2.8x, most likely it will be 2.6x-2.7x . On capacity, it's more complex, Javier, because now we plan to see what happens in October 2026 and 2027.

We expect the prices to keep the values that we shared, so we do not expect any discrepancies. Do consider that in mid-2026, the Monfalcone plan will be commissioned by itself. It will generate EUR 10 million EBIT per month. So the amount of capacity for the future in the years expected to be reached in the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 is a combination of our current capacity and the production expected from the Monfalcone plan. So the calculation is a bit more complex. But in our view, the capacity is continuously on the increase. Considering the values reflected in the plan, I mean the business plan that we submitted in 2024 until 2035 for 2025, it included EUR 60 million less than what we have.

After the question about the market capacity from 2027 to 2028, I was interested in knowing what happens in the auction on storage and your view on that. What are you talking about, Javier? For storage, yes.

Javier Suárez
Managing Director, Mediobanca

So, the auctions for capacity in the future, I think they will include the existing capacity plus what will come for storage. How will this affect the profitability of the business from 2028 onwards? That is my question.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

I mean, it's hard to provide figures on this. I can tell you what we put in the plan. For instance, in 2028, the planned capacity is around EUR 180 million. But at the values at which auctions are performing today, I would say it's unprecedented.

So it's reasonable to believe that these values will sort of line up because when all the plants financed with capacity or auctions will be commissioned and become operational, our plants, Edison and Enel, and the [contendable] demand will certainly decrease. So the capacity will be determined by the new commissioned plants. As of today, however, our situation is such where we have for this year EUR 150 million of capacity market for 2024. Next year, it will be EUR 230 million, and we expect to keep such a value for 2026 and 2027. By 2027, Monfalcone and some positions of our current plants will come out, Monfalcone will become operational. So the estimate we did around EUR 280 million was based on the auction value. Now we are in excess of EUR 20 million. So we expect to keep the value well above EUR 200 million.

Javier Suárez
Managing Director, Mediobanca

Thank you very much. That was very interesting.

Operator

Thank you. Next question by Stefano Gamberini from Equita. You have the floor.

Stefano Gamberini
Analyst, Equita

Thank you very much. Thank you for the questions. And good afternoon. First of all, I have two questions. With the transaction in Ascopiave, are we replacing the minorities to finance the retail? So will the process of the issuance of hybrid bond be completed, and this is the second step, or should we expect something more in addition to this? I understand that the evaluation of RABs cannot emerge. I was making considerations considering the RAB of A5. You can estimate the value to be at about EUR 150 million of RAB. Maybe you want to comment on that. The second question is about 2025. Sorry, the 2024 guidance, the energy generation and market part has been increased in the guidance. It should be about EUR 1.3 billion at year-end.

And you said you can do even better in the energy production. I'd like to focus on 2025. What can we expect from this? You said an increase in capacity market. But then what's going to happen with the other building blocks? There are items that can be considered to be one-off this year. And I'd like to understand more on the market side. You said that there are EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million of assets to maintain retaining activities. I don't understand what happens next year with the obtained customers and the other disappearance of the EBITDA will increase by EUR 80 million. Did I get you correctly? The last thing I would like to understand relates to hydroelectric energy. For Iren, it seems that the offering, the bid project financing will be confirmed because the appeal of the local operator has been rejected.

So do you think this could be the guideline for the future, or do you still believe that the Italian government until year-end can intervene with the European Union in terms of lengthening of concessions in return for investments?

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

Thanks, Stefano. For Ascopiave, the transaction with Ascopiave is very important from a strategic point of view for two reasons. First one, it moves in the direction that we have already selected to be increasingly an operator focused on electricity generation and distribution, cleaning some way the activities. Consider that Milan ATEM, considering its stability, has a very strong integration of operations with the electricity grid of Milan. Ready intervention teams are already fully integrated, while in other areas, of course, they were just operating in gas. Another strategic element lies in the fact that this gives us time to consider additional options.

So my answer would therefore be that for sure we are considering other options to further improve our financial position, most of all to be ready to seize possible opportunities. You see how fast we are able to seize them when they appear to us. We want to have enough liquidity for that. We don't think we are going to touch A5. The situation there is too complex in terms of stakeholders. So considering a possible transaction on A5 would be extremely complex. So another option relating to minorities is still open, but the great benefit is that the combined effect of the hybrid bond and Ascopiave transaction makes us confident we can close the year with payment of annual transaction without any anxiety. And then this is, as I said, there could also be the option of a swap or disposal.

The benefit would be that we could then maximize the economic outcome of the decisions made. Considering the guidance and the market, as already said, the market in 2024 takes EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million, almost EUR 100 million for retention actions. Part of this cost will be recurrent in 2025. In Q1, we will have a daily factor of contracts that have been repositioned. We will have EUR 20-30 million that we are going to spend also in 2025, but there will be a different impact on the EBITDA. As a matter of fact, in 2025, this is then no longer to be perceived. Generation decrease by effect of the energy scenario as of today. Also, the hedging levels we have are at a lower price than we had in 2024.

A couple of days ago, we were awarded the Capacity Market contracts with EUR 80 million more compared to what we had originally assumed compared to the value for 2024. And this allows us to offset to compensate the difference also because the water level difference we are assuming here, so from 4.8 TWh to 4 TWh, generate 0.8 TWh , which compared to the assumed plan means a positive delta with a positive effect also at capacity level. So we are assuming to maintain a guidance which is essentially aligned in generation and market. So we assume alignment with 2024.

Stefano Gamberini
Analyst, Equita

Thank you. And what about tenders and auctions?

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

I don't think Iren will be the front runner. I'm glad that this appeal has been rejected. I think the scheme will not be in Iren style. They have a relatively small concession, I think 0.5 installed capacity.

We are tackling the problem at national level. In Southern Italy, there is a water shortage, a severe one. We will repropose the central role of this aspect. We hope that new EU commissioners will be appointed to restart the debate about competition, low degree. Also the interaction with the Italian government seemed to reflect this attitude. There still seems to be a certain level of asymmetry in Europe. There is an interview of Nicola Monti today in II Sole 24 Ore, if I remember correctly, which will reflect that concept. I can confirm that this is our guideline. We expect, hopefully, until year-end, the situation to start. The new commissions will start operating next October. There will be a short time before year-end.

But we expect with the new commissions, with the new commissioners, to restart discussions on the topic to find an alternative process, i.e., entrusting to current players in return for their investments, for their Capex.

Stefano Gamberini
Analyst, Equita

Crystal clear. Thank you very much indeed.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

Thank you.

Operator

Next question. Emanuele Oggioni, Kepler Cheuvreux.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Good afternoon. Thanks for your presentation and congratulations for your delivery. I have some follow-up questions. I need more details on topics you have already presented. You have given a revised H1 2024 RAB in distribution, EUR 1.7 billion. Can you please provide an update also on the figure of delivery points? And then talking about capacity market, this EUR 60 million additional versus business plan in 2025, are they maintained? Will you assume to have the same prices? So will this EUR 60 million be replicated also in 2026 and 2027? Can you please confirm that?

The last question is about profitability of the retail business. It's not clear to me, based on the previous answer, whether in 2025, at the end, we will have a net increase, assuming a stable customer base, whether we will have a net EBITDA increase driven by the fact that we will no longer have these additional EUR 80 million marketing costs. That's not fully clear to me. Thank you.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

Points of delivery. We have 1,857,000 delivery points. Capacity, I confirm what I was saying earlier. We expect the auctions for 2026-27 to be awarded at aligned levels. There is no new capacity. There are no reasons, considering the description of the auctions, to assume that they will lower optimal start levels, 85,000, or to expect a significantly different scenario. The plans that are available are these ones.

If you don't change the mechanism for these actions, the values will be comparable. In Retail, w e assume a net value on the rise next year in Retail business, mainly due to the effects I was describing earlier. So mainly this will stem from the end of this retention campaign with its attendant costs. And this retention campaign has been quite successful for the mass market, including the PPA's mass market, 100 TWh this year with 100 TWh . We have individual contracts for 2 TWh each, and the PPA values, therefore, are quite comparable with larger ones. We were saying we are going to reach a 2.3 TWh of PPA in the retail business. We will do that, and this will make our business very stable. We assume, therefore, an EBITDA for market in 2025 to be higher than in 2024.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you. A follow-up question on potential new acquisitions maybe from 2025 onward. Will the focus be on generation of renewables or electricity networks with further disposals maybe of gas network parts? But from this point of view, in the last few months, especially in Sardinia, apparently the opposition by local community to large working sites, which affects capacity to be installed. Several manifestations were organized against that. People are blocking ports and so on. I would like to have your comment on this.

Renato Mazzoncini
CEO, A2A

I will give a general comment and then a comment on A2A. We have a lot of renewable energies, which is a small value, however, compared to the market share. So I'm not worried of delivering on this to reach peaks in plans with the balance between demand and supply are positive, like the one in Friuli Venezia, which provides for 160 MW.

It's the biggest in Venezia. There is such a demand for electricity and a shortage of renewables that there is no issue. Probably it's more culturally aligned. This does not affect the level of prices. So we are working with our solid pipeline. We have about 2 GW of 2 GW pipeline. So we're not anxious. We're not being pressed to achieve big volumes of renewables. We can afford being more selective. In Italy, overall, the problem is quite bad. I mean, the measures that were issued recently, DDL, agriculture, and other pieces of legislation generate an increase in energy production costs. Because if you do agrivoltaic plants, if you significantly reduce the eligible areas, of course, the result is that the plants that can be built from a technical viewpoint, they are 3 meters high instead of being at ground level or in terms of value of land.

Well, that would have a major impact on [CRI]. This is a critical issue. But as we said in other occasions, this issue is compensated by another decree, which potentially will allow to develop gigas of renewable energy, which includes solar energy at around EUR 85/MWh . So countrywide, the risk is that the GSE would be the only manager of energy, providing energy at a very high price, and then someone will get in the middle and charge for that. It becomes an issue of economic politics. So this is my view.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. If you want to ask a question or contribute to today's conference, you can select Star 1 on your telephone keypad. Just as a reminder. There are no further questions.

Marco Porro
Head of Investor Relations, A2A

Thank you for your attendance. We wish you all good holidays and a good summer break. You will get potential follow-ups to today's communications. Of course, the HR is always here for you if you need us. Thank you very much.

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