Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Capital Market Day of A 2A, the second one following March when we illustrated the new Strategic Plan to 2035. Today, we're going to update our Strategic Plan to 2035, and at the same time, we will be reporting on the first nine months' results. I leave the floor to Mr. Luca Moroni, our CFO, to report on the results of the first nine months of 2024. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you very much, Marco, and good morning to you all also on my behalf. Let's now start by looking at the nine-month results of this year, a particularly positive year because of very good market conditions. We had been used to see the positive effects of hydro contribution that characterized the first half of the year, and also Q3 was positive, and we continued along the same direction. The market provided a contribution to the growth of Q3 and thus consolidating the results in the nine months, and the infrastructure business unit, thanks to the remuneration of RAB and the increase of RAB because of investments, has given us positive revenues, so what went less well? Well, there is a non-positive contribution of WTE.
This is compared to a positive production of the hydroelectric power and all of the renewable sources of energy, and also the contraction of MSD because of the reduction of investments of the national company that is Terna. Now, revenues go down by 17%. Price commodity dynamics drive this decrease. This is not bad news for us because it means that the energy bills of our customers are going to be more manageable. On the other hand, we have EBITDA growing by 33%, 1.8 billion EUR versus 1.357 billion EUR last year, and the performance in this case is quite relevant, both in terms of reported and ordinary EBITDA, where there is a small difference due to non-recurring items. The very same good results you'll find looking at the net income, 713 million EUR overall for the group, growing by 68%. Ordinary group net income slightly below 665 million EUR.
We have two one-offs, a capital gain, 11 million EUR for the litigation that we managed to secure for ourselves, and the capital gains for TecnoA acquisition, the plant that we purchased for the waste-to-energy plants in Crotone. We'll see the cash flow later on, and the net financial position is stable at 4.7 billion EUR versus the end of 2023. And considering the hybrid bond issue, we reduce NFP to 4 billion EUR.
So NFP-EBITDA ratio is two times without considering the hydroelectric power hybrid power generation. So the metrics are very positive, very sound, so to speak. Now, 438 million EUR of EBITDA. The greatest chunk comes from generation because of the volumes produced by hydroelectric power plants, with a major contribution, both in terms of volumes.
Last year, we actually, in September, or as of September, we had produced 2.5 TW, and we now are at 3.9 TW, so quite a meaningful increase. Moreover, we have a price effect. In the first six months of last year, we had the clawback impact, the Sostegni decree introduced by the government to face the crisis of 2022, and which lasted until June. So the combination of these two effects leads to a positive effect of 300 million EUR for renewable sources of energy, partly made up by flexibility, where we have a negative EBITDA versus last year, some 60 million EUR, and this is due to the thermoelectric power production, which had a negative contribution by 70 million EUR , which was partly made up for by capacity market, positive 30 million EUR for the very same sector. Now, as to the market, we have the good performance of different segments.
Mass market, 100 million EUR of EBITDA growth. This is the contribution to margins. Also, large customers, some 10 million EUR- 12 million EUR more, and then we have other factors that compensate one to each other. Let me mention something I mentioned before. There is the positive margins effect we had in 2024, which is due to the fact that a cost in 2023 related to a biannual contract related to 2022, related to the energy crisis. Now, this was no longer there, and we invested money in a retention program for our customers to reshape contracts or renegotiate contracts. Now, waste, the Waste Business Unit performance could have been better, but was somewhat made up for by the scenario effect, which had an impact on the first nine months versus the previous year.
Now, what stands out is the positive performance of the new WTE plant of Parona, with a contribution of more than 20 million EUR. As to the Smart infrastructures, the investments made in the networks and the review of the remuneration of capital introduced as of the January 1st allows us to have higher regulated revenues and higher EBITDA. It's less clear on electric networks because of two effects. First, a number of dispatching projects, which are quite relevant and which will have to be written to the accounts in 2025, and plus a number of operating costs, which help us integrate the network acquired from E-Distribuzione . As to heat, good volumes sold for this heating and heating. We don't have the Superbonus and tax credits that had a good impact on the previous year's results.
Now, the P&L, as you can see from the slide, is quite interesting, quite satisfactory for us. EBITDA 1.8 billion EUR, EBIT 1.107 billion EUR We are managing carefully all of the different lines of the P&L. Amortization and D&A's increase is mainly due to investments made over the past 12 months. We are now releasing a provision on a tax litigation where we won at the High Court, Supreme Court, so with a positive effect of some 15 million EUR Good management of financial charges. We managed in a proactive manner the financial charges. We had made a pre-hedging operation at the beginning of the year, and then we replaced it with the issue of the hybrid bond, and therefore the combination of this allows us to have a better management of this item.
Now, income before taxes, 974 million EUR, tax rate 29%, minorities 23 million EUR, and we'll get to the net ordinary income of 665 million EUR, and then the two one-offs I mentioned will lead the net income of the nine months to 713 million EUR. If compared to the 425 million EUR last year, well, this is a result worth noting. Now, we moreover continue to invest in development, and we do so quite importantly. Development accounts for 60% of total CapEx. Total CapEx, EUR 900 million, going up 13% versus the same period of last year. We are consistent with our strategic guidelines. That is, energy transition and circular economy with a ratio of 70 to 30 between the two, and then investments in networks and smart infrastructures, which are the most relevant part of our overall CapEx.
Then we have following investments in generation and in plants that we are building, especially the plant of Monfalcone, but also plants for renewable sources of energy, which are at the moment in progress or underway. Now, cash flow, very well. Well, the cash flow allows us to completely fund our investments, but also the dividends that we distribute. And we are therefore at a neutral level, which means that we are not going to erode or increase our debt because we can self-finance our investments and we can pay our dividends for the cash flow. And then the issue of the hybrid bond, which from reporting point of view is classified as equity. Well, for this, the Net Financial Position goes down by 60 million EUR. Sorry.
Then net of the hybrid bond, we have, you see, 2.4 times net with the EBITDA and 1.7 considering the issuing of the hybrid bond. That's the ratio. Now, so extremely positive results, which lead us to look at the end of the year in a positive manner. Here, the guidance is improved, an increase by 100 million EUR versus the guidance we gave you in July. This is due to the good performance in the Generation Business Unit, which so far leads us to think or to believe that hydropower production is going to be around 5 TWh, around 5.2-5.3 TWh. We can also have very good and consolidated results of the Market Business Unit and then see an increase of the waste performance, especially the industrial waste and waste treatment, and then a linear growth of margins for the smart infrastructures.
The net result is very good net ordinary income between EUR 800 million and EUR 820 million, which is very good and a positive result, perhaps the best result in the last years of the group. I'll stop here. We'll take the questions at the end. We'll start with the presentation of the business plan. And we have Mr. Mazzoncini, the CEO, and I'll hand him over the floor.
Yes, I would say this is the best ever result achieved by our group. Good morning. Welcome to you all. We're here today to provide you with the update of our strategic plan just a few months after March of 2024. As you might remember, in March of 2024, we actually illustrated the extension of our previous strategic plan to 2035. So November is the right month to update our strategic plan.
So you may expect to be called upon every year in November to provide you with an additional update because this will provide you with a roadmap about budgeting and so on and so forth. Anyway, we believe it was appropriate to provide you with an update now, even though just a few months have elapsed since March, because a number of events have occurred in the meantime. Last but not least, the American presidential elections that inevitably have an impact. So updating our strategic plan is most appropriate, in our opinion. The title of our update is Life Yards. The common element in our presentation is the following. We believe that you can't grow, you cannot grow, and you can't be competitive.
This applies both to Italy and Europe unless you develop infrastructures to support the green transition, the ecological transition, the circular economy, and bridge the gap between Europe and other continents, especially as far as energy autonomy and renewables are concerned, which closely relate with circular economy. I'd like to start by showing you a video clip that illustrates how we managed to achieve the results that Luca has just reported on. Such results are the result of a strategy that we launched in January 2021 with an absolutely CapEx-driven type of strategy. Now you might understand why we decided to entitle our presentation Life Yards.
Strategic plan is to start from the results we've achieved so far, from the many projects we've launched and already completed, the most concrete proof of our ability to turn a vision into reality, to make the ecological transition a competitive advantage for our country. Life Yards, building a competitive transition where everything is turned into new resources. Where the water cycle is virtuous, where energy is cleaner and cleaner. Where technology becomes part of everyday life. Here, in our yards, we at A2A take care of energy, water, and the environment. We take care of life today and tomorrow because the future we promise is one we have already begun to build. A2A Life Company. I'm an engineer, and what is most rewarding for me is seeing infrastructures developed that will make Italy more competitive, and that's why we're being focusing on this.
This is also the common element in our presentation where you see we have four chapters. The first chapter refers to our strategic rationale. I'm going to talk about competitive transition, following also the Draghi report on EU competitiveness. I'll be illustrating our strategy, then financials with the contribution of Luca, and then some closing remarks. What about competitive transition then? We believe we, this is where we stand, in other words. We are still committed to our strategy in a landscape where the awareness of climate change is absolutely varying. There's a focus on the raw materials, on critical raw materials, and on energy autonomy and how it should be dealt with in Europe. Energy prices have reached a new normal, as we call it, and I'll go back to it later on.
And then, of course, there is also a matter of transition costs for people and businesses. So deindustrialization following the Green Deal is definitely an issue. So all in all, we can talk about the EU competitiveness crisis that is confirmed by the loss of competitiveness of Europe over the past years. I believe you are all aware that energy prices have entered a new normal stage around 100 EUR per megawatt hour, and this is the price that will remain for a long time. Here we have two elements: the absolute price and the price that fluctuates because of volatility. And such prices are much higher today than it used to be in the past. Clearly, this new scenario provides challenges and opportunities. There are a number of opportunities that relate to regulated assets mainly.
So, for instance, distribution of electric networks, hence our deal with Enel, provide growth opportunities. Also, because the Italian regulator is doing a great job and provides us with a lot of, let's say, certainties. But the same applies to generation because the capacity market and the MSD or the FER regulation stabilizes the generation margins. And on the other side of the slide, you see a number of challenges. So the new decree that was recently adopted might place restrictions on renewable plants, and we see how regions are going to react. So we are suggesting regional governments to interpret such a decree in the right way. The Italian government has confirmed the 2023 PNIEC targets that were introduced by the Draghi report. Then we are in a stop-and-go incentive schemes, and we are familiar with such an approach in Italy.
And then investments on the water cycle is another key point. We can't go on with such a situation because public administrations failed to invest on the water cycle. You are all aware of the EU competitiveness crisis. The blue area is Europe that has lost a 13 percentage point of competitiveness vis-à-vis the United States, not to mention China. So the recipe that the Draghi's report provides, and we have studied it in depth to see whether our strategic plan is in line with the Draghi's report fundamentals, because this is the only strategic tool that the EU has at the moment to increase its competitiveness. Well, the Draghi's report tells us that our CapEx-driven strategy is the right way to go. We have planned 800. Actually, Europe is planning 800 billion EUR per year of additional investment to increase its competitiveness.
Then, so innovation, decarbonization, autonomy, autonomy in terms of energy supply, of course. I haven't got time to dwell on each and every one of them, but as far as innovation is concerned, we have invested in the first CVC fund, probably the largest CVC fund in Italy. And I must say that all the startups that we have invested on are generating record high multiples, on average three times the expected average multiple. And recently, we launched another CVC fund, the largest climate tech fund, 200 million EUR, where we are anchor investors. And this is good news because being anchor investors and being advisors as well places us in a privileged position. And we have been able already to collect 130 million EUR
in the first weeks with a number of key players. So we are focusing on innovation, about decarbonization.
I'm not going to bore you, but the takeaway of the Draghi report on decarbonization is the following. We have to invest in renewables because of the source that generates energy autonomy quicker, and it is what will be leading to a decoupling between electricity prices and gas prices. Not because the renewables will no longer be included in the marginal price mechanisms, but because renewables will generate lower price energy. And this is exactly what we have been focusing on. And then, of course, we are investing in electric infrastructure to support the electrification of consumption. As for autonomy, increasing material recovery to access secondary raw material is a key point. As you're going to see in a minute, we are also focusing on the end-of-waste process.
Our strategic plan factors in a project for a new battery recycling plant that is going to become one of our greatest achievements because Italy and Europe have proved that they can actually be in the forefront as far as recycling of material is concerned. Since we believe that investments in the Green Deal will bring advantages to our B2B and B2C customers, we have been focusing on investing in sustainable technologies that can be advantageous for our clients. This is an example. The technology we have been investing on, or that we'll be investing on going forward, are reported here on this slide by LCOE Value. Photovoltaic is the source that is currently able to generate the lowest price energy.
Then we have the agri-photovoltaic interspaced energy, so where you can actually grow food in between the lines of photovoltaic cells, then the wind onshore and wind offshore, and then combined cycles. What is the takeaway message here? The investments that we make on technology, be it photovoltaic and wind technology, are the less expensive technology. Currently, we are not planning to invest either on the agri-photovoltaic interspaced or advanced, or on the offshore wind because prices are still too high, and this will lead to a higher energy price in Italy. Currently, Italy has reached 22%-23% of our energy autonomy. With renewables, we can achieve 68%, but this must be done by reducing the energy price. And the only way is investing in technology that is less expensive and not more expensive.
So you see the combined cycle is half blue, half gray because there we invest not with a base-load-oriented approach, but with a capacity market-oriented approach to ensure flexibility of the system. If we invest the waste cycle properly, so if the percentage of sorted waste exceeds 70%, our planned target is 75%, then the waste tax for citizens becomes much, much lower. And we have seen a number of examples in this regard. The same applies to electric mobility, which is a moot point at the moment. We have considered the ACI rates, and this is the result. So the mileage reimbursement by gas versus electric vehicle shows that electric vehicles have a 20% lower cost than other types of cars, which testifies that the investments that we are making on recharging stations go into the right direction.
Unfortunately, Italy is going through a severe demographic crisis. As you know, we have also started a parenting scheme in our company. But anyway, we are a service company, and the impact we have on citizens is therefore important. In Cernobbio last September, we have reported on a study on cities. Cities are the natural allies of the green transition. Why? Because they account for 7% of the surface occupied in Italy, generating 60% of the Italian GDP. And considering that 1 million EUR of GDP consumes 72% of energy less in urban cities, in urban areas versus the rest of Italy, this shows that cities are the most efficient place where to make competitive investments. So A2A is focusing on urban areas for all the reasons I've just illustrated. The demographic crisis that affects Italy, the blue line refers to Italy reaching minus 5% by 2040.
This doesn't apply to urban areas, though. The light blue line, 8%, is growing 8%. It refers to the other Italian cities. And the A2A cities actually have an estimated growth of 18% by 2040, which is in line with the growth of the other large European cities. So our message here is Italy is going through a demographic crisis that has to be dealt with. But our group is focusing on urban areas that provide a number of advantages, including the fact that the population, particularly in the cities where we operate, is growing. And here, just a few facts and figures. We are going to confirm €22 billion of Capex in our 2024-2035 plan period. We have slightly increased our EBITDA by 2035. It used to be €3.2 billion. Now we have increased it to €3.3 billion. The current scenario enables us to improve our target.
Probably this is because we are confident, we'll be able to achieve these targets and net income exceeding EUR 1 billion. All these targets will be achieved thanks to electricity network RAB reaching EUR 3.4 billion, renewables reaching 5.7 giga, and over seven million tons of waste treated in our plants by 2035. This is the evolution of our CapEx plan in the three different periods. The 2018-2020 period, that was the period when we actually set up for growth. Then 2021-2023, growing strong, 5 billion EUR invested in these three years. If you add the 2.5 billion EUR referred to 2024, you see that we have reached eight million, sorry, billion EUR investments in four years. This explains why we have achieved such commendable results in 2024. Then the new update of the plan is the period where we are going to scale up, reaching 22 billion EUR CapEx.
Here we haven't factored in our M&As. The latest acquisition was made in 2024. So going forward, we haven't factored in acquisitions. But M&As can, of course, be used as a tactical tool should opportunities arise on the market. And so this is our journey to our next level EBITDA. Here we have the previous scope, 1.4 billion EUR contribution to EBITDA. Then 2021-2023 generated 600 million EUR of EBITDA, 500 megawatt renewables more, 400 million EUR RAB not considered the Enel deal. So this is the growth of electricity distribution networks, RAB, following our investments over the past years. We have tripled our investment on electric networks and then 700 thousand additional customers and 700 thousand tons of waste treatment. Then the scenario effect, well, hydropower, if we consider the average of the past three years, we reach 4 TWh, which testifies that the average works.
I'm not going to stress the positive scenario effect too much because what is relevant to a company like A2A is retaining a stable EBITDA also in the generation business. And we see how we're going to achieve this result. This is our EBITDA evolution within the planned time frame. I would like to highlight this slide in particular because when you have an unexpected growth, as we experienced in 2024, our original guidance was 2 billion EUR, if you remember. So when you have such an incredible result exceeding expectations, you have to be reactive and use the additional resources promptly. So thanks to the additional financial capacity, we have invested in a new solar plant near Francofonte that is now under development, additional 100 megawatts in Friuli, reaching 160 megawatts of solar plant, the largest in the north of Italy. We are currently working on a deal.
I cannot disclose it, but we are working on the acquisition of a large generation plant for district heating that will be completed over the next few weeks, and the construction of the waste-to-energy plant in Corteolona will start earlier, and so we are moving faster than planned, so these are all the opportunities we are grasping, then we have updated our dividend policy in this new strategic plan. Up to January 2021, our dividend payout was 3% per year, and has remained constant over the years, despite the growth that ranged between 6% and 8%, so our initial message was we want to keep our payout ratio low because we want to have financial resources available to fuel our growth, so we want to focus on our growth. We want to be a growth company rather than a yield company.
The very good performance we have experienced gives us the opportunity to review our dividend policies. Starting 2024, our dividends will grow from 3% to 4% and will remain so for the rest of the plan. Then Luca will provide you with some more details. This is the scenario, let's say, where we are going to execute our strategy. I believe we are all familiar with our strategy, so I'll be very quick. This chart summarizes, and I hope clearly, a number of points. Our pillars have remained unchanged. Energy transition, circular economy, our strategic pillars. Our Capex, 16% and 6%. Then you see investment broken down by volatility. 45% of investment will be low volatility investment, so investment on networks or capacity market. 55% will be merchant. Good balance, a good mix between these two elements.
This is the evolution of our EBITDA. We'll be disclosing some more figures. If you remember, we now have 2027 instead of 2026 because 2026 was too close to be meaningful. Here we have excluded the scenario effect. Net of the scenario effect, you realize that we plan substantial and constant growth. As for circular economy, we plan to invest 4 billion EUR on waste treatment, reaching seven million tons of total waste treated by 2035. We have a number of plants that are under development. Then give new life to resources. The end-of-waste process. Our goal is reaching 75% of waste sorting by 2035. Europe's target is 65% by 2035. In fact, it's 65% of actually recovered waste and not just recycled because plastic, for instance, implies additional waste that must be considered.
The European targets refer to the pure waste recovery. We are focusing also on avoiding water waste and heat waste. We plan to recover 60% of the heat to fuel our district heating system. As for water, we want to reduce water leakage. By investing, it is possible to reduce water leakage. A2A used to invest 10 million EUR per year on water. Now this investment has increased to 8 million EUR per year. As for waste treatment, urban waste is expected to remain flat also because of the demographic growth I referred to. As for industrial waste, as I already pointed out in March, well, industrial waste is going to become one of the major drivers of our growth going forward. The waste-to-energy plant that we are developing in Crotone aims at doubling our capacity in this area that we expect will generate substantial results.
Back we are to our construction sites. We have in excess of 70 construction sites under development in the area of a circular economy. 11 plants are already being developed. For instance, the WTE in Terzo or the one in Corteolona, the one in Corteolona, the plastic plant in Muggiano, the sludge plant in Parona. These are just a few examples. We have some plants that are under development, others that are pending authorization. Then we have a number of projects that are being developed and will soon lead to the opening of the construction sites. As to waste for energy recovery, we plan to go on increase the millions of tons to reach 4 million tons. For instance, the WTE plant in Brescia accounts for 4.7, the one in Milan 0.55. This gives you an idea of the scope and size of our plan.
Then you see the amount of energy that will be generated both in terms of electricity and in terms of heat. And you have an idea of what these waste-to-energy plants can do when they achieve a high efficiency. For instance, the Brescia plant has already achieved 99% efficiency, 1.8 billion EUR Capex for energy recovery, 500 million EUR of EBITDA generated by energy recovery. And here you see waste from material recovery. And on the following slide, you see that out of 2 million tons of waste, 1 million is accounted for by the end-of-waste, namely paper and inert material accounted for the largest share, but also other materials like plastic and compost. So we are investing in this process, 1.3 billion EUR, and we expect 100 million EUR EBITDA coming from material recovery going forward. And this is the heat in our district heating system.
We aim at achieving 60% by 2035 coming from renewables and waste heat in particular. And then just a couple of examples. We recently completed the connection with the REA Dalmine waste-to-energy plant. So 11 equivalent apartments supplied with the heat that was wasted in the past. And then we have two small-scale projects which, however, tell a lot about the potential. For instance, the two data centers, one in Milan and one in Brescia, that have an incredible potential to provide heat recovered. And in the video, you see the excavation to extend district heating from the Dalmine area to Bergamo. As for the reduction of water network leakage, you see the evolution in the leakage reduction. Again, as far as water is concerned, these are six plants under development. These are all ongoing sites that give you an idea of what we have been doing.
Also as far as water is concerned, consider that a purification plant that is a simple plant, if you will, implies a very time-consuming process in terms of authorization. As for the energy transition, we start from our electric networks, 3.4 billion EUR RAB by 2035 with more than 2 million PODs. Then renewables, we still focus on renewables with 4.7 billion EUR CapEx to reach 5.7 gigawatts of energy generated with renewables. We are going to invest on hydroelectric as well, 1 billion EUR investment, carrying on our concessions. As for the market, 5 million customers by 2035, 800,000 acquisitions per year. This is a point I would like to stress. In the first nine months of 2024, we have reached already 700,000. So huge numbers, 800,000 means the whole population of Milan. So this is the kind of acquisition we plan every year.
Again, this is something we'll be able to achieve thanks to our clear strategy. Here you see the electricity RAB overtaking the gas RAB, which is an important point. Here you see reduced investments in gas networks. You might know that we are negotiating a deal for asset rotation for part of our gas assets, which also explains why we plan to reduce investments in gas networks. By 2025, our electric RAB that was half that of gas in 2020 will overtake or actually has overtaken the gas RAB. This is something I mentioned when we acquired the Enel network, even though I didn't disclose any figure. We, however, pointed out that a scale economy could be achieved by integrating the Milan municipality network and the greater Milan metropolitan area network. When we made the acquisition, our POD-FTE ratio was 1,391.
After the acquisition, we have increased the productivity of our people by 30% in terms of maintenance of our PODs, which also justifies the increase of our EBITDA after the acquisition of the Enel network. Our plan provides for increasing, upgrading, and strengthening our electricity infrastructure. Here you see profitability by POD that increased from 128 EUR in 2024 to 225 EUR by 2035. I believe this is an interesting point, figures that we hadn't disclosed before. Then you see we expect most of the growth coming from solar and wind energy. We are not considering storage here, but we have planned to invest 700 million EUR on storage systems as well, and we'll be bidding to calls for bids. Again, numerous sites under development. Last Monday, we completed the connection of the Mazara del Vallo plant. We are developing plants in Terzo, Terzo di Aquileia, Oliveri and many other places.
Between 2020 and 2024, most of our volumes were gas-based, 62%, 25% was accounted for by hydroelectric, and 9% was still oil and coal with the Monfalcone San Filippo del Mela plants. By 2035, you see that oil and coal disappear completely. Gas will account for 31%, which are the capacity market plants that are being developed and a small percentage of generation, but renewables are growing substantially. The new element appears, which is what A2A is doing. We acquire renewables from third parties, and we enable third parties' investments in renewables by 2 gigawatts. Our gigawatts are developed on top, sorry, 2 gigawatts of third parties are developed on top of our gigawatts. Here you see that 30% of EBITDA is not exposed to the scenario factor, so it's absolutely stable. 30%, which is merchant hedged, and 40% that was a merchant spot.
You see the evolution by 2035. We have greater stability of our EBITDA thanks to PPAs. You see the spot market accounts for a negligible share by 2035. This is the evolution of our customer base. I confine myself to highlighting the substantial growth in the electricity customer base. Just think of the introduction of ETS2 that will have an impact on our gas customers. That's why we are focusing on growing our electricity customer base. How can our market BU go on growing with acquisitions of customers? We start with a strong basis already, 700,000 customers. In the plan, we factored in 4% growth of the unit cost of acquire. Here you see 700 million EBITDA by 2035. What are we doing currently? We are focusing on the phygital approach. In other words, we're opening stores, especially in the lower awareness areas.
I was in Palermo two weeks ago for the opening of our store, and we plan to have more than 120 A2A energy stores across Italy by 2030. This channel, but also our call center and all the other channels are associated with a very low churn rate versus teleselling that is definitely cheaper in terms of cost of acquire, but is associated to much higher churn rates. And then this is another major source of satisfaction for us. PPAs mass markets, they were tested as a pilot for a month last year. This year, we started another campaign in April, and we have roughly 10,000 contracts signed every month. 70,000 customers have already signed 10-year-long contracts based on PPAs mass market. So our target was 2.3 terawatt hour. We have increased it to 2.5.
So PPAs mass market are definitely a powerful tool, and they have already exceeded the B2B results.
This is it. I hand you over to Luca who is going to report on the financials.
Thank you. Thank you very much, Renato. Now, I think that the soundness of the industrial project that we have in our own pipeline or that we have launched and the capability of executing and delivering these projects, but also a strong financial discipline which governs the allocated capital in a correct manner and cash flow, all of this is helping us to achieve the performance that we are talking about, relevant performance also from an economic and financial point of view. This is the common thread of the financial presentation. As to the EBITDA growth, now we are seeing a slight growth in the average weighted growth of EBITDA.
In 2027, it is going to go up by EUR 100 million, a confirmation of 2026 versus the March we presented in March. Not to be taken for granted, but we introduced a number of asset rotation opportunities, and then the positive flow of investments that we are making are going to give us good results, then a greater visibility because of the construction sites that we have open and the sustainability of our growth in the medium to long term. Average weighted growth of 6% throughout the business plan period, 8% in the first months. Underlying net income, even better. We assumed a partnership deal in 2025. The good results that we have achieved in terms of financials and cash flow are helping us or are allowing us to take into account our alternatives. For instance, asset rotation operations, so we have a number of alternatives available.
We are working on a practical one at the moment. This allows us to possibly optimize the EBITDA and the stability of the EBITDA, but also to optimize the net income and the NFP and also to provide a stable return to shareholders. EPS, which is growing by 7%. This is the average weighted growth during all of the plan and a dividend yield around 5% as it is at the moment. So you will have a 12% return or total shareholder return, which we believe is an appropriate remuneration of investments. ROI, 12%, and we get a return of investment on average is above 9%. Now, how are we going over the first years? Now, let me give you the details for our growth to 2027, and then we'll see the results to 2030.
Now, 2027, driving forces, energy and infrastructures, smart infrastructures, and then the start of operations of WTE plants, first Monfalcone and then renewables, and then the capacity market, which is one of the drivers contributing to growth and also different types of growth in 2025 and 2026, and then the growth of the customer base. As usual, we have assumed some competition on margins, especially for business customers. Now, as to the smart infrastructures, we are growing investments in electric network RAB. Of course, the integration of the new Milan network, this is what we are working on as well, and we will focus on the water cycle and other minor businesses which are not less important, like e-mobility and lighting business, and then asset rotation operations I mentioned before. As to the waste results, well, the first three years there are going to be a stabilization of results.
The growth of plants and investments related to this are compensated for by the bidding for concessions, for instance, that of Milan, which makes up for the industrial investments for the construction of plant. And you'll see then going forward here, you see the waste business unit and the smart infrastructures which are going to grow and stability results for the energy segment. And then the waste business, once the Corteolona plant is up and running, Terzo is going to start, will have an initial stage of revamping, and then we'll be able to actually express all of its margins starting in 2027 at the same pace as the Crotone plant. Further investments and therefore growth in the waste treatment and the new organic waste treatment that Renato mentioned before. Now, as to smart infrastructures, we are continuing to make investments, in particular on electric network.
There we are putting together the investments on electric networks of the old period and those investments of the new period and the remuneration that could grow because of the growth of RAB. As to energy, energy segment, we shall continue developing renewables and we shall continue growing the customer base thanks to investments made to acquire customers in different channels like the digital channel and the stores. As you can see, we are going to invest quite relevantly in stores as well. Our model, I guess it is very clear to everybody, it's a diversified integrated model which helps us capture opportunities to modulate growth, to capture synergies and to manage risks because of the portfolio mix and natural hedging if you wish, which is quite clear in the different segments.
Production from renewables has a strong, solid base of customers to whom we can sell energy, and therefore this segment is protected at least at 75%. But we have a modulation capability or, if you wish, flexibility which is relevant. The same applies to waste collection, waste that go to the waste treatment plant. This is a natural risk hedging between these two businesses of the same business unit or the heat generated by our WTE plants, which then is taken into district heating networks. Now, you know that the Brescia plant only serves 85% of the households in Brescia with an efficiency which is equal to 98%. Now, let's see the guidance for 2025: EUR 2.172 billion in terms of EBITDA and net income of EUR 0.687 billion.
It's cut EUR 680 million-EUR 700 million, which is in line with our growth path and also because of the visibility that we talked about during this part of the presentation. Now, investments, CapEx. We now can allow ourselves a CapEx profile which will occur a bit earlier versus the previous plan. The figures will remain the same, but you'll see that we can accelerate a bit our development versus the previous plan, and you see that there are a number of clear investment drivers. First of all, an energy transition and the circular economy, a correct allocation of capital with a precise, clear remuneration target for investments above the average cost of capital, and then last but not least, sustainability criteria which are going to drive to guide our actions towards transition and towards decarbonization, a goal that we want to achieve.
Now, we also allow ourselves to make these investments, being aware of the fact that the return on investments that we have in the different segments is quite relevant, above 15%, for instance, in energy where we invest 37% of our CapEx. There, clear driver, technological change from the production of electricity with gas technology and related sources and moving towards increasingly to renewables, keeping profitability at a double-digit level. This is our final goal. As to waste, ROE above ROI above 10%, we keep investing in plants, as you could see. We invest 20% of our overall CapEx in the waste business and then smart infrastructures where the ROI is above the regulated work. We have a number of businesses that help us to achieve a better return on invested capital.
Here, the smart infrastructures will account for 40% of the investments going forward and the extra return on work of 200 basis points. This is the goal of the group for remuneration of investments. All of this will give us more than EUR 15 billion cash to be used for development. And this, after paying for maintenance investment, the role diverted to industrial development, EUR 15.6 billion of cash to be used for industrial development. It's a relevant figure versus the previous year. Now, the cash conversion rate is above 50%. So you may well understand that our strategy, including capital allocation, is giving us good results. Now, the funding profile or the debt evolution. Now, with this cash flow, we are going to be able to limit the debt growth.
The funding needs that we have amounts to EUR 8 billion, and 85% is going to be covered with refinancing of existing debt, and 20% is going to be covered with debt. Now, this is the net debt to EBITDA ratio remains sustainable below the peak point reached at 2.8. Now we are at 2.7. And we are, of course, exploiting the cash flow, which has a contribution to our financial profile. Average cost of debt in 2026 below 3%, 2027 below 2.8%, under the plan below 3.4%. We shall continue, however, to manage proactively at debt maturities and the debt of the previous years, of the next years, I'm sorry, which, as you can see, is well distributed along the years in terms of maturities. And then sustainable finance, very well there.
We already are at 70% of green or sustainable debt with the clear goal of going up to 90% or above in 2030 and 100% in 2035 of green debt. Now, the average duration of our debt, five years, this is our goal. The debt will become a bit more variable in 2024. The variable debt was 17%. And considering the profile and the forward rates, well, this is what we use to build the plan, thus having a bit more of flexibility. Now, we have basically secured the liquidity of the group so that at the end of the year, we can acquire electric networks from Enel. We did this by issuing a hybrid bond, 50% of which is going to be used specifically for the acquisition of the electric networks. The remaining part will be diverted to organic investments.
Moreover, we have signed a deal for a bridge loan with our banks, and we can also use the additional liquidity coming from the particularly positive cash flow of this year, and this allows us to be able to meet the maturities at the end of the year without any problem. Now, we are also reassured by the fact that we can defend our current rating. Now, we have agreed a number of metrics with the rating agencies, and we are confident that we can keep our rating. The hybrid bond has or is accounted for 50% at equity level. And then, of course, cash and the asset rotation. All of this allows us to say that we can keep our rating. It will help us to remain above 24%-25%, thus defending, as I said, our current rating, which is BBB stable and Baa2 stable.
Thank you, Alessandro, over again to Renato, who will draw the conclusions. Thank you.
I would like to conclude with three takeaways. First, we have a number of projects in the pipeline that were not factored in in our EUR 22 million worth of CapEx. For instance, data centers to support the growth of district heating. Then, opportunities in the water cycle, because, as I pointed out, the public administrations are not able to invest on water cycle enough, and therefore players as A2A can support this process. And then we have planned additional waste-to-energy plans development, and then we have bioenergy production based on biomethane. Should the regulatory framework foster investments in this area, new opportunities may arise in this area too. And then, as for energy, we can grow with renewables also through partnerships. Then we have the new pumped storage hydropower plants that can be developed.
And then BESS, so the so-called battery energy storage solutions projects, we see how the calls for bids go. Anyway, if for a number of reasons the projects that we have in some of the projects that are in pipeline fail to be implemented, then other ones, alternative ones, are already there. So we do not fear the speed of the process to slow down, which is good news. Then my second takeaway refers to ESG. We remain committed to the E of the acronym, Environment. This year, we're going to publish our climate transition plan, and we're going to implement our action plan for biodiversity. As for the S, Social, we are putting in place a number of activities focusing on diversity, equity, inclusion.
85% of the group's population, and this is just an example, is working in gender parity certified companies or the opening a few weeks ago of a lab at the Bollate Prison to disassemble and recover electric devices components. And then, as for governance, we have updated the group's human rights policy. Then the EUR 120 million worth employees parenting plan with EUR 10 million invested every year. And then we're going to launch a stock ownership plan that will be submitted to the general shareholders meeting April next that provides for all groups' employees the opportunity to become A2A shareholders with the exclusion of the Acinque , which being a public company is not included. The plan provides for allocation of shares free of charge, and then you'll be here hearing more about this plan.
I believe we are one of the first Italian large groups implementing such a stock option plan for employees, which we believe is going to be a very powerful lever. As far as our emission factor scope, we retain our Scope 1 and 2 targets, but we have also added a Scope 3 target. Targets for the upstream emissions and for the emissions from sold gas that also include contributions from biomethane as well as the emissions of the supply chain. For the first time this year, we add also Scope 4 emissions. We estimate the CO2 emissions avoided thanks to the activity put in place. The activities range from renewables to Waste, e-mobility, district heating, and material recovery. We're going to report on Scope 4 emissions as well. So doing, we confirm our commitment in this area.
And then I would like to conclude with another video. So to summarize, we are planning to triple the electricity network RAB. We're going to double waste to energy, EUR 22 billion CapEx, EUR 33 billion EBITDA by 2035. Then net debt under control, 75% of our CapEx is eligible for the EU Taxonomy, and then 70% of CapEx that is under development. And I would like, therefore, now to show you our final video, and then we can start the Q&A session. Thank you very much. Todays Yards, where we continue to build the future, our real commitment to looking ahead, investments, technologies, and people to make the ecological transition a competitive advantage for our country. Life Yards, building a competitive transition. Where we put a world of resources into circulation. Where the challenges of decarbonization become opportunities. Where we change the perspective of customers and citizens.
Where we contribute to the choice of sustainable mobility. Where our vision gains new momentum. It's here in our yards and new projects that our strategic plan for the future becomes the present, and where the competitive transition takes shape. A2A Life Yards.
Okay, thank you very much, Renato. Thank you, Luca. At this point, we can start with the questions from the room here, and then we'll go to the questions from people connected. And please use your microphone. Now, good morning. It is Intesa Sanpaolo. I have three questions to ask, if I may. The first, starting from slide 15, where you speak of scenario effect, I was wondering the following. Now, 2023, 2024, you give us EUR 300 million of scenario effect, which disappears in 2027. I'd like to know something about the energy scenario in 2027. Nowadays, the PUN price is EUR 100.
If this remains the same in 2027, I expect the price effect not to be there. I'd like to see or understand the consistency between the two figures, and I'd like to know what kind of assumptions you are making in terms of energy evolution from now to 2030, let's say. Second question, more of a strategic nature. The question about the investments and the geographies in which you are going to invest in Italy. Well, over the past few years, you have started investing outside of Lombardy and related close regions. Net of the cost of capital, what is the strategy rationale that you have when deciding to get into a new region, or do you have a business in mind, relations with the administrators or the administrations, or the idea that you can consolidate your business in certain areas? And then a last question.
You mentioned the data center. Can you tell us what the strategic approach is when investing in data centers? Is A2A going to be an energy provider, or will you have the possibility to get into a JV with developers? Now, from a technical point of view, what is the rationale that contributes to all of this? Now, as to the first question, well, the scenario effect disappears in 2025, not in 2027. The scenario effect is due to two factors. So 1.3 more of 1.3 terawatt hour multiplied is for EUR 100 or EUR 120 per megawatt PUN . In 2024, we had 70% of the production at EUR 154 per megawatt hour. In 2025, we are around 60% of coverage, but it's like 18 megawatts. Sorry.
Now, we had 40 megawatt hour more of the price of 2024 because of the hedging of 2023, so we will not see that anymore. Now, if you consider the hedging and production in 2024, you have some EUR 300 million disappearing. It's as if 2025 starts with EUR 300 million less, starts with EUR 3 billion, and then following the guidance, which will help us go on because of the investments and the constant growth that we have been guaranteeing for years through our business plan. As to the strategic rationale of investments, well, let me say the following. In Italy, it's quite simple. We don't have a problem whether a region is more or less easier than others. Last week, I was in Sicily to inaugurate the wind farm of Mazara del Vallo, and I was there with the mayor of Mazara del Vallo.
Now, what I'm saying is that nowadays we have complex areas, but I don't consider the south more complex than the north. It's not a matter of latitude. It's a market-related factor. In the north of Italy, what we are interested in is to continue growing renewables, especially solar and wind energy, because they're less developed than in the south, and then we have a problem of waste in the south because we have less plants, waste-treatment plants, so we take the map of Italy and we look where we have a lot of density of investments. There is where we are interested in investing in networks, well, networks follow concessions, and we invest where we can. In certain cases, we have opportunities like the one we had with Enel, and so either we invest in networks or we invest in our own networks, data centers.
We don't want to get into the technology side of data centers, meaning PCs, computers, chip, artificial intelligence. But a data center can be planned in an efficient manner, both in terms of energy consumption and restitution of energy and cooling of chips, which in the north of Italy, that heat recovery can be used for district heating. Now, we do this in partnership with companies that build data centers upfront, and we may develop things together, but our role is very clear: energy management, both in terms of supplying energy and energy acquisition or purchase energy that can be produced by the data center. Good morning. Thank you very much for your presentation. A few questions as well. First, your assumption of hydropower in 2025 and 2026. Can you give us a figure in terms of your assumption of hydroelectric power?
Then from 2026 onward, you'll have four megawatt, sorry, four terawatt hour, and that is going to be sustainable in time. How then are you going to sustain your hydroelectric power? What is the assumption for 2025, 2026, and for the long term? Now, another question following the presentation of the CEO. I have understood that you see the price of electricity at EUR 100 per megawatt hour. I'd like, however, to speak about the competitiveness of the country with this price of energy. What should the country do to become more competitive? Now, we've talked about data center. I don't think you can use data centers to reduce prices. How can the nuclear generation affect your scenario and the new battery systems? There are a number of factors that can lead to, I think, the energy price is going to go down.
What is your assumption for 2035? Now, in a scenario where hydraulic power should be lower, how do you think that this is going to affect your margins and your supplies in 2025, 2027?
As for hydro production, we rely on our usual criteria, statistical criteria, namely the average of the past five years, and we use this: 4.1 terawatt hour by 2025, and we believe it's going to remain. So it's slightly lower than the historical average that we used in the previous years that was 4.2, and this 0.1 difference is actually related to climate change, even though, of course, volatility here is very high. As for prices, Luca, would you like to elaborate on that? Well, the price we assumed in our plan is a national single price between 100 and 110 that will remain unchanged during the plan.
Thanks to the energy management platform owned by the group and the development and implementation of technology in the country, we can exploit different energy prices, and in so doing, we can actually improve by at least 10% the average price of energy. So starting with this range of EUR 100-EUR 110, if actually we consider spot prices, we should assume an additional 10% as the price that we can achieve. In 2025, as Renato pointed out, we have hedged 58% at EUR 118. The current prices are increasing, so they are reaching EUR 118-EUR 120, which means that we may probably achieve a slightly higher price than the average. So we are therefore reassured by the analysis that we've been carrying out based on our models and when we calculated the return on investment for new plants.
I would like to add a comment to a slide that we showed in March. As for the location of our plants, and because of the technology, we have a PUN achieved that is traditionally 10% higher than the national single price. This is something that is going to be an important driver for us. As for PPAs, for instance, we have been focusing on PPAs exactly because we want to reduce the volatility of energy prices. As for competitiveness, if we consider the national single price, just the single national price, the past months in Italy, EUR 100 or EUR 94, France, EUR 50, Spain, EUR 56. Let's say the end price paid is actually aligned between the various EU countries because the network component is very low in Italy. The German one is much higher, and in France, it's double the Italian rate.
Today, an Italian citizen pays EUR 0.31 per kilowatt hour. This is the end price, and this is the same price that German consumers pay. If we manage to reduce the national single price, well, this is going to be beneficial. The only way to reduce it is investing in plants that generate energy at a lower price than EUR 100. That is the slide I showed you. This is also the reason why we are investing in a photovoltaic type that is, I mean, generating a price between or below EUR 65 per MWh. The same applies to gas. This is the only way we can reduce the price of energy in Italy, make Italy more competitive.
Then, in the long term, we have to see what is going to happen with energy imports because we are importing from France, but also from Montenegro, from Greece, and the cable connecting Italy and Tunisia is being developed, then we have LNG. If we consider the cost of energy production in North Africa with a good balance between wind and solar, and then we consider the import costs, well, assuming that by 2024, imports from North Africa can increase, and this would lead Italy to achieve 60% of energy autonomy, then, of course, we have to see how to cover the remaining 40%. At that point, there might be different options, but again, imports from North Africa of renewable energy, of course, is an option. As for nuclear energy, nuclear energy is one of the options to cover that residual 40% I was mentioning.
The SMR reactor refers to a nuclear energy price of between EUR 90-EUR 110, but they are renewables at a certain time during the day, bid at a lower price, so it's mainly a political decision about the energy autonomy that the country wants to achieve, so to cover that residual 40%, there are three options: thermal gas storage and capture, imports, or nuclear energy. These three options, in my opinion, will not have a substantial impact on energy prices, so the only way to reduce energy price is increasing renewables from 22%-60%, so this is the only way, in my opinion, we can really reduce the energy price in Italy, and then as for the energy supply, in our plan, we have factored in a reduction of the commodity margins.
We have a 3% per year, which means 30% of the margin evolution over a period of 10 years. And so the BU growth is supported by an expansion, a substantial expansion of the customer base, as you might have heard, 800,000 per year. And then PPA's mass market. Currently, PPA mass market contracts that are being signed provide for 119 EUR per megawatt hour. And then, of course, you have to add the fixed cost for customer management that is typical of B2C contracts. I don't know whether I've answered all your questions. Emanuele, please use the microphone.
I've got a question about investments and still pending authorization. If you can provide us with a breakdown by business unit by 2027 and then by 2030. So what is the percentage of the ready-to-build versus authorized projects? Again, broken down by business unit. Then about networks.
I remember that in the previous version of the plan, your assumption was RAB, a constant RAB. So I would like to know what your assumption is in the midterm as far as networks regulation is concerned. As for retail, your retail business, I've seen that you have increased the number of customer target up to 2026 was 3.9 million, 2027, 4.3, with a growth of 400,000 customers, which is higher than the annual average that was 200-220,000. That was what you had estimated for the rest of the plan. And then you confirmed 4.8 million for 2030. So in 2027, it was 4.3. Why do you report a higher target in terms of customer number? And then can you please recall the assumptions that you used for
your cost per customer calculation? So what kind of competition pressure do you expect in this regard?
After the energy crisis, of course, the situation has improved for large players like you, and you have been very good at exploiting higher margins and market consolidation. But I expected that there will be more pressure on prices going forward because of numerous players that are still operating on the market. So I answer your final question first. As for retail customers, please consider that in 2024 and the first part of 2025, we have planned very high retention costs because of repositioning of our customers that between the second half of 2022 and the first part of 2023 signed fixed price contracts at a very high price. So in our balance sheet of 2024, this has an impact of EUR 85 million.
The partial part of the margin recovery of the following years comes from the cost of retentions that was substantial, as I said, EUR 85 million and roughly 17 to 2023 that will no longer be there. This offsets partially the loss of margins of our customers that has materialized. Keep all this in mind because we are talking about pure EBITDA here because whenever we reposition a customer, we offer a different price. All of that has an impact on our EBITDA. What about your second question? Was it about WACC? Yes. As for WACC, we have assumed the average reported by all market players, namely 0.4 reduction on average. That is 0.5 for gas, 0.3 for electric power. Let's say on average a 0.4 reduction of the WACC of the two key sectors, gas and electricity.
As for authorizations or projects pending authorization, well, we have a number of projects, large-scale projects that are being developed and will have a substantial impact on our EBITDA, the largest being the Monfalcone plant. The Monfalcone plant is scheduled to become operative in mid-2026, generating 10 million EBITDA per month. And this gives you an idea of what we are talking about here. Then, as far as energy generation is concerned, the 100 megawatt new solar field in Friuli is already authorized. 40 megawatts plant in Banzi is already authorized. The WTE at Corteolona, 250,000 tons that is already authorized. We started the construction and we should become operative by 2028. Then the investments on the networks, for instance, the Enel network, we see an increase of annual investment of EUR 30 per POD, EUR 200 per POD.
The overall investment on electric networks that are already part of our business scope will increase to double the current figure that is currently EUR 1,700 million per year. Networks do not need, I mean, network development do not need authorization because it's just a matter of upgrading. The only exception being the primary stations in Milan that are already there that must be expanded in non-critical areas because the substation at Porta Romana that is a huge plant, I mean, 2,000 square meters, has already been authorized, will be partially underground in the park. This is another example of projects that are already authorized and under development. Our Capex between now and 2027 are 100% authorized and under development.
So when we say that by 2030, 7% of our projects are already authorized or under development, well, this means that most of the plants are already under development. The Trezzo plant, for instance, in Trezzo, we were awarded the tender to manage the waste-to-energy plant. We considered not only the revamping of the WTE, but also the extension of the district heating system. So we have received the final authorization. And so the development of the WTE plant in Crotone has started. In our acquisition plan, the idea was that of demolishing the 35,000 tons old plant and build a new one, whereas we've been authorized to keep the old plant in operation. So this will have a favorable impact on our EBITDA while we develop the new one. Since the final authorization covers 150,000 tons, the old plant will still be used for waste treatment.
So, I mean, I can spend hours talking about construction sites, but I can simply say that we are absolutely not worried about our construction sites.
Roberto Letizia with Equita. If I have to summarize the plan in a few words, you are spending the same amount of money, more dividends, and less leverage. Now, you explained this by using the P&L, but can you give us something about the balance sheet? What are the assumptions made on the working capital? Do you have or do you envisage a contribution coming from the reduction of the leverage? And if you are going to issue either new hybrid bonds, then what about possible risks, for instance, the removal of the ban to the exports for the United States? Do you see any risk there also for the European market?
As to the retail market, can you give us some information about the acquisition channels that you're going to use to acquire new customers? How much is it organic? How much M&A? And then you mentioned the cost acquire, which is growing. Can you give us the data of the cost acquire, B2C and B2B customers? And then there's something I can't understand. Now, competition is growing. The churn rate is growing. Margins are going down by 3% a year. Shouldn't this lead to a lower cost of acquire because a customer who wants to switch to another provider, it's easier to acquire with a lower cost for you? And then the plan assumptions, do they take into account the disposal of the gas distribution network? Now, within the plan, within the plan EBITDA, we haven't factored in the value related to the asset rotation that we have in mind.
We haven't defined a target there for the operation that we have at the moment ongoing. But we have already taken into account that some of the assets are being disposed of and therefore are not being factored in. So the figures that you see are the ones which already envisage the asset rotation. Now, let me take the question relating to financials. Well, a number of assumptions, perhaps we'll speak about this later on, but the macro figures are working capital, as you could see, is very nicely managed. We have options that we can use, for instance, the possibility to move from stock exchange platforms to OTC contracts so as to have some opportunities there or, for instance, exploit the moments when flows or cash flows are going very well.
Now, today's or this year's cash flow is helping us a lot because we can look at the future with greater expectations, being more resilient and more sound. Now, the EUR 15 billion that you saw there in March will show you that we have obtained a greater flexibility. As to the working capital, our assumption is that of a normal working capital, a bit more of cash absorption during the first two years because we believe that we can invest in last instance market because through bidding, the bidding process. Now, this helps us to make up for the difficulties in cashing in the money from more difficult customers. So considering a number of variables, we try to keep or to strike a balance in our working capital, and then we assume that we can refinance the hybrid bond with another, with the issuing of another hybrid bond.
I think we have managed to obtain a good opportunity in terms of differentiation of our funding sources. Now, the group is in general, or generally speaking, is showing to be able to generate relevant cash flow. We now have achieved the scale effect and we have a strong operating lever. And this, of course, reflects positively on our financial dynamics, thus allowing us to be resilient, as we could see. As Renato said, we assume in 2025 to have a cash incoming from asset rotation. This is what we are working on. But we also have some alternative options that we can put in place, and we have already incorporated the related economic effect. Now, question about the U.S. I don't think that this will have an impact on the cost of energy in Italy and in Europe. Now, the material that can be procured is gas.
If I look at Italy and in Europe as well, there is an excessive supply. Now, we didn't speak a lot about the fact that prices keep remaining high, but our energy mix, the biggest chunk comes from North Africa, Azerbaijan, and the quantity of regasified gas, 5 billion cubic meters in combined cycle plants, well, this can also be fueled with American LNG, but there are a number of countries and players that can step in, like for instance, Qatar. So I don't think that the USA can have an impact on prices. On the contrary, there will be an acceleration of development of renewable sources of energy in Europe to kind of defend ourselves from this. If you look at the 100,000 acquisitions per year, there you see in our plan, half of these acquisitions are going to be physical acquisitions.
At the moment, we have increased or assume an increase in the cost of acquisition, although we can't give you the precise figure, but this is due to the fact that we are focusing on the quality of customers, and we want to be able to maintain a low churn rate that is typical of A2A to be able to achieve that goal and also have a greater margin. You have to take into consideration reputation and the relationship with the customer. A customer with a low churn rate is a more satisfied customer, which means quality, and quality for us is fundamental. Now, a few years ago, we thought, of course, that digital channels were becoming very important, but they do not go above 20% of all of our customer acquisitions during the business plan period.
For this reason, we have decided to improve or increase our physical presence through our stores or through contact points in order to have the possibility to physically meet our customers. Our call center is staffed with our own employees, and this is also a value. This call center allows us to acquire high-quality customers. So we are seeing a higher churn rate between customers acquired through our physical channels or call centers versus the customer acquired through teleselling or through digital platforms. And the churn rate is better in our case by two, three times. And for this reason, what is worth more is investing in our own channels to acquire new customers. Now, good morning, Banca Akros, Francesco Sala. Three questions. The first, on hydroelectric concessions, can you give us an update?
Both in terms of timing of the tenders that were issued a few weeks ago in Lombardy, and then the assumptions in the longer term, do you expect changes in regulations as well? Another question. What are the assumptions on the deflator for the regulated business? And then last year, we entered into a partnership with Fri-El for Fri-El geothermal energy and developments there in the future?.
As for the hydroelectric concessions, the two calls for bids that refer to our four megawatt concession and the Edison concessions. Currently, bids have been put forward, but there is litigation about the value of the dry works, so we do not expect any evolution in the short term. The Lombardy government announced that a decision might be made at the end of 2025, considering that we're talking about a tender for four megawatts.
But following the meetings we had with the local government, we are reassured that the so-called Quarta Via scheme can proceed, which was, however, stopped because the hydroelectric concessions could not be carved out the so-called competition directive. But considering that now energy autonomy is one of the priorities in Europe at large, we expect the new commission to solve the problem, and Minister Fitto will be the Italian representative in this area. As for the latter, Luca, would you like to take the question? As you know, there is a consultation document that will be issued next March and that contains a number of assumptions. We are in line with the assumptions of the large market players, and this will probably lead to a positive impact on the RAB revaluation. So we have made our estimates based on the likely scenarios.
We expect positive contribution starting next year. But we have additional options available that we have considered with a bit more conservative approach. And should the evolution not go into the direction that the market expects, we will have the opportunity to nevertheless achieve the RAB level that we have considered. And then as for Fri-El, I don't know. I don't know whether something is going to change in the short term. But the fact that the new normal price is under the euro per megawatt hour, this means that the technologies that were not affordable years ago now become affordable. We are currently considering the use of geothermal energy to fuel district heating because the decarbonization of cities, particularly of buildings, is the most difficult part of the decarbonization process.
So certain buildings already are fueled with geothermal energy, but for other buildings, it is difficult to retrofit them to use it. The only geothermal energy that is available in Italy is in Tuscany at a higher temperature. Whereas we never considered using geothermal energy that because of temperature or because of depth in the soil was not profitable. But now, with EUR 100 per megawatt hour as a normal price, a new normal price, we'll see new technology emerging. So I think our time is over. We can definitely answer your questions if you contact the IR department. Thank you very much for attending, and have a good day.