Hello, and welcome to A2A H1 twenty twenty five Results Call. My name is Laura, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this call is being recorded. And for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call.
I will now hand you over to your host, Marco Porro, Head of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to participate to our first half twenty twenty five results. Conference will be led by our CEO, Renato Mazzucchinis and the CFO, Luca Moroni. I leave immediately the floor to Renato for the first part of the presentation, and then Luca will jump in.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, guys. Thank you to be with us. So starting from slide number two.
H1 results demonstrate the execution of our strategic plan. You remember we presented it in November, laying a strong foundation for the continuous growth of our company. And looking the main achievements, we can start from some industrial passion in electricity. Our strategy in energy transition is very clear. And some achievements for this semester are the fact that we completed the asset rotation towards electricity grids.
As you know, since January is the assets we acquired from A and L in particular in the province of Milan and the part in the province of Brescia have been successfully integrated into our asset portfolio. And at the end of this semester, with, let's say, a very clear punctuality, we finalized the sale of a part of our gas network to the company Escopiade for a consideration of €430,000,000 which we already cashed in exactly the June 3. Regarding our grid development as presented in the plan, we recently inaugurated a primary substation in Brescia. It's only one example because the primary substation are the king of power grid. In our industrial plan, we have a €3,400,000,000 of CapEx in the next years in Power Grid.
And what is very important is that we was able to push strong CapEx also in DWERATY that is exactly the part of the network that we bought from Enel in the first month of our new management of the network. That is not so normal, let's say, because to be able to invest strongly in networks, you need to know very well how the network is built and so on. And so how our engineering was able really to start very, very quickly in CapEx in the CapEx plan also in this network. Once again, discussing about the strategy in electricity, we reached 1,600,000 electricity customers on free market free mass market consider but our strategy also considering our trajectory of food net zero is to shift to switch more and more from gas customer to electricity customer. And also in this semester, the growth of the free market free mass market electricity customers was 11%, so very, very important.
The second achievement is business risk profile optimization. And in our generation business unit, we secured a seventeen year LNG supply agreement with British Petroleum for more or less €1,000,000,000 of commission for every year of GNL, ensuring greater security of supply and price stability. So we are very happy and this contract will start from the next year. We further improved the visibility of the results stream in our district heating network, in particular by winning the tender for 2020 here concession in Sesto San Giovanni that is in the North Of Milan. It is a large part of the metropolitan areas of Milan, more or less 100,000 inhabitants, so very important.
And we remind you that we now reached a regulated EBITDA that arrives more or less 31%, 32%. Thanks in particular to the increasing exposure of our asset portfolio to regulated and cozy regulated activities. Of course, the acquisition from E and L was very important for this target. As you already know, we are also enthusiastic about the new opportunity quickly materializing in our sector with which we look forward to illustrating surely in the next Capital Market Day. But in the meantime, probably some of you have seen that we announced the inauguration of the first liquid cold data center connected to the distillate heating.
You remember during November, we thought during the presentation of our Industarplan about the opportunity to exchange it from the data center to the district heating. You remember that there is a potential target in Milan in particular to reach 150,000 equivalent apartments with its recovery coming from district heating. And we did it with a first pilot started in Brescia and the next one will arrive in the next few months in Milan. And we continue to invest in our industrial development. Evinr already reached more or less €400,000,000 in development CapEx in the semester.
So the total CapEx in the semester is I don't remember is more or less €700,000,000 but once again 60% are in development. And this is the reason for why our growth is exactly stable and continuous. It's very important also, of course, our relationship with our stakeholders. A dividend payment of more than €300,000,000 in particular €313,000,000 to our shareholders in line with the promised annual increase, the 4% every year, may remember, along with consistent in new store growth. And from the other side, the launch of our company's employee stock ownership plan with an impressive subscription of 86% of our colleagues was a target for us really very important to engage our employees and to increase the commitment to the future target of the company.
Looking slide number looking slide sorry in the right part of slide number two, you can also look, of course, how our Moody's upgrade of rating outlook to positive. That is once again the proof that also from a financial point, we are working well. Looking at slide number three, the consolidation of the new company Duality from Enel and the increase in the price of energy commodities led to increase in revenues more or less 13%, so to arrive to €7,000,000,000 in the period. The reported EBITDA recorded a limited decrease, but reaching €1,220,000,000 But as you remember surely from our call in the first quarter, the big difference is there are main differences against 24%, but the biggest one is the extraordinary effect deriving from hydroelectric production during 2024. You remember, we closed the year with 5.2 terawatt hours.
And if we offset this extraordinary effect, the EBITDA grew in 25% against 24% in the first half by 2%. The net profit for the same reason decreased by 11%, but once again compared with adjusting, let's say, buyback effect of hydroelectric production is increased by 1%. The ordinary net profit excluding special items, for example, in there are the €8,000,000 of euros referring to the price adjustment or relating to the acquisition of a stake in Tecnoa. Tecnoa is was the waste to energy plant industrial waste to energy plant in Crotone, in Calabria in the South Of Italy. And showed a decrease of 11% compared with the H1 twenty twenty four standing at €426,000,000 And once again adjusting 2024 with the hydroelectric production there is an increase by 2%.
Focus on financial disciplines continues allowing us to improve the solidity of the financial ratios. And as you can see, we arrive to net financial position on EBITDA ratio in 2.3% that is a decrease compared to the 2.5% of 24%. And this is a very good result also because, let's say, is the flexibility that can allow us to face new opportunity in the future. Slide number four, the CapEx. The CapEx is how are key elements in our strategy.
And also this year the increasing is strong 23% compared with 24. You remember last year we did also on top on the CapEx the industrial CapEx of acquisition in Enel. So the total investment last year was €2,900,000,000 This year the target arrived to approximately to $1700000000.0.1.8 And we are working to reach this target. Four zero three are development. The rest is maintenance more or less and something peanuts mandatory.
The large part of the CapEx are smart infrastructure. This is the reason for why our RAB continue to increase, but also circular economy and generation are a fundamental part of the CapEx plan. And once again the division between energy transition and COECONOMY, so our two pillars of the industrial plan are 72.28%. It's very important to look that the breakdown by SDGs is 85% aligned with SDGs against 15 not aligned. And also the alignment with EU taxonomy is very high.
We are 51% aligned and eligible 72%. And this is very important because it's the reason for why our capacity to increase the green part of our debt is possible to reach. So I leave the floor to Luca for a detail in the EBITDA.
Thank you, Renato. Thank you, everybody, for being with us today. At Page number five, I would like to underline the growth of some businesses, in particular, smart infrastructure, which contributed the best to the result of the first half twenty twenty five, million followed by EUR19 million by circular economy business unit, which compensate partially the decrease in generation and trading end market business unit. Of course, we come back several time during the presentation with a referral to the hydro effect of 24,000,000 which to have a better comparison, we need to take into consideration keeping in mind that we are talking about €800,000,000 in term of EBITDA. The result of the first half, 101,200,000,000.0 has been quite in line with our target for the year and consistent with the industrial growth we are achieving.
Let's go into the detail of each business unit, generation and trading, again and again, the fact that managing different technologies is a way to hedging the risk profile of the business unit. In fact, as you can see, considering less production coming from hydro for seven fifty gigawatt per hour for this semester compared last year, we have produced 1.2 terawatt more in term of thermal production, 62% increase. This is this has been an opportunity for the company to offset partially the negative impact. We have had also the effect coming from the energy scenario affecting the result for first half twenty twenty five. At Page seven, we pass to the market result, where we can underline and pointing out the very positive performance of the power market in retail business, which offset completely the investment.
So some higher cost compared last year, which could consider we can consider as an investment in marketing and commercial future performance. So €16,000,000 towards the 14,000,000 minus 14,000,000 End to end, the €25,000,000 of decreasing in the result could be linked entirely to the safeguarded market. As you remember, we decided to bid in that tender at the end of last year with a decent marginality. And as the market expressed a marginality very, very low, we remain without that customer in our portfolio. It is very important to underline what also Renato said in the presentation at the beginning, which is the increase of our free market customer base in electricity segment, which increased by 11% compared last year, whilst we have a slightly decrease in the gas customer during the rolling period.
The electricity sold has been quite good in electricity, plus 8%, whilst the gas sales decreased by 6%. In the circular economy business unit at PHA, we continue to experience a very nice and positive industrial result. In terms of KPIs, you can appreciate at the right part of the slide how the KPI the industrial KPI are very positive in term of electricity sales, energy recovery and heat volumes. And this lead the positivity of the result both in treatment and distributing by €14,000,000 and €10,000,000 respectively, which compensate entirely the minus 5,000,000 related to the result of the tender of the collection auction for Milan area, which has been which started at the end of last year and will give the effect for the entire 2025. At Page nine, the very good news related to our business of the market infrastructure, in particular, distribution with the perimeter of Duereti, which come from the acquisition from a distribution accounting for €44,000,000 in term of EBITDA, but also the positivity related to the regulated revenues, which give us the opportunity to increase by 33% in this business unit.
It is very important to underline what we have considered in the nonrecurring item, 27,000,000 out of those $23 are related to gas adjustment for previous years. So we in such a way, we need to consider it in term of marginality for the gas business. The RAB increased both because of the acquisition and for the CapEx plan, which is pretty good, also take into consideration Duereti new company, which started very fast in the implementation of the new CapEx plan and also the previous perimeter. In term of RAB, reached $1,600,000,000 for electricity and we are at 1.8 for the gas business. Page 10, we can give a look at our profit and loss starting from the €1,200,000,000 EBITDA, euros $469,000,000 depreciation and amortization, 28,000,000 increase compared to last year, 15% of those related to the delta perimeter related to Duereti, a decrease in the risk provision related to the debt for the funds or the debt related to the landfill post operating activities.
Sorry, the net financial expense is €85,000,000 related to with an increase of 24,000,000 compared last year related to the issuance of the new European green bond of last January and the green loan the bridge green loan issued last year for the acquisition of Duereti. The operating profit, dollars $6.35 Then we have the taxes with a tax rate of 29%, minorities for $23,000,000 and the net ordinary income of $426,000,000 the special item already mentioned by $8,000,000 to reach the net result and the net income of $434,000,000 Page 11, we are very satisfied about our financial performance. Cash flows are quite positive and let us funding all the investment and the dividends with our net operative cash flows, a very nice and positive result in term of management of net working capital, which gave us €200,000,000 in term of positive cash flows. We have 300,000,000 of cash out related to taxes and financial expenses. And as you can see, 1,100,000,000.0 of net operating cash flows, which gave us the opportunity to fully fund investment and dividends, resulting then with EUR 126,000,000 of net cash flow.
Then we have the cash in coming from the asset rotation to Ascopiave of our gas asset we sold to them. So the decreasing of the net financial position by $500,000,000 and $10,000,000 giving us the opportunity to decrease the leverage from 2.5 to 2.3 times, which is a very nice result, giving us the opportunity to look at the market in term of financial stability and sustainability in a very good position. Last but not least, the cash conversion rate plus 65%, which gave us the opportunity to have this kind of items in the cash flows.
Okay. So guys to conclude, despite frankly speaking a super positive semester, we decided to be prudent. And so to confirm the upper end of our guidance. The number are the number that you know, so €2,200,000,000 of EBITDA and 700,000,000.0 of net ordinary income. And to conclude in slide number 13 only to recap our strategy.
Our strategy is completely CapEx driven. So also this year 25% double digit CapEx increase, remember 23%, on track with targets. So looking our industrial plan also in 2025, we did exactly the ordinary net income and the EBITDA that we announced in the ten years in the plan like usually. As Luca said, very strong cash flow generation six more than 65% of cash conversion only in the first half. That means solid year end net financial position that means able to invest more and more.
So our strategy is on track. Thanks and we are open to Q and A.
Thank you. We will now take our first question from Sarah Lancaster of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I just have one question, please, with multiple parts and all related to the electricity distribution concession extension process. Wondering what the latest is on that? When is the next document expected? And what can we expect to see in that document.
I just want to be really clear, please, what we can expect and when, given I believe today was one of the dates that had been previously discussed. And then just further to that, could you please remind us what fee, if any, is already included in your CapEx plan from last November? Thank you.
Looking at distribution electricity concession, the law is inside our balance law national balance law last December. The topic is that we need AERA, our authority, to define some proposal to our minister Ministry for the Ecological Transition to fix the elements of the evaluation of the CapEx that we need to have the new contraction. And in this moment, the actual Board of Ferreira expired the August 8, and we are waiting from the parliament the appointment of the new Board probably during August. And so we expected to have some news in September because it's clear that the new order will take some weeks to close this dossier. But what is key for us is that the law is very clear.
The period is very clear, twenty years. And so the only elements that we have to wait is exactly to understand which are the elements of evaluation of the CapEx plan that you have to present it to submit to have to open the discussion for the new concession. So there are not other topics that also the topic of eventually concession fee is out of the radar because the idea is to have a part of the contractual fee one shot, but inside Verab. So it's not a cost for our companies. And this is coherent in my personal opinion with the fact that we had to invest a lot in and very quickly in electrical distribution to face electrification.
And we have is it impossible to wait 2030 that is the natural expiration time for the old concession. So no news. The only news is that we have to wait the new Board of Areira to close the dossier.
Thank you. And just quickly to follow-up. Do you assume some element of fee in your CapEx plan last November?
Well, the fee are not included yet in the CapEx plan. Of course, also taking into consideration the fact that we don't have any rule for the estimation. So the number, it's it would have been a tumbled number. With the new plan, of course, we will adjust it accordingly. And if and when the rule of the game will be issued by ARERA and the Ministry of Economy.
But of course, also taking into consideration the financial sustainability, we have demonstrated to have I think, that the amount of money we are talking about don't have any kind of impact, which afraid us in any way.
Yes. But because you have to consider another element. In the total CapEx in the last twenty years, not only in Italy, but also in other countries in Europe in electrical grids was very low, in particular because there was a lot of CapEx in the gas network. In Italy, the total the investment in power grid arrived to in 1980, let's say, and then for thirty years only CapEx in Gas Network because the idea was to face the new energy needs with gas. Now with the decarbonization, we have to come back to invest in Power Grid.
But our industrial plan in January 2021 increased a lot the CapEx for Power Grid. And if you look at our historical Power Grid, we arrived already to triple the CapEx compared with the old period. And also in this moment, in the new network, both from A and L, immediately in January, February, March we doubled the CapEx that A and L did in 2024. And this is inside our CapEx plan. So frankly speaking, I imagine that our volumes of CapEx in the power grid is up absolutely enough to open the discussion with the authority for the new concession because standalone we decided to increase the CapEx.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
We'll now take our next question from Francesco Sala of of Banker Acros. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Three, if I may. The first one is hydro generation.
I wonder what you expect in terms of volumes for the second part of the year and what is embedded in your 2025 target? The second one is on treatment. The performance here both in Q1 and Q2 was particularly strong. I wonder whether you can shed some light on this trend. Secondly, if we will see in H2 the same growth as the one we saw in H1.
And finally, on let's say flexible generation, I wonder what you expect in terms of Spark spreads in the next few months or at least as long as you have some visibility on this segment of the market? Thank you.
Okay. For the first question about the volumes, looking at the hydro production, we are exactly in let's say in the average level of the last ten years, so four terawatt hours. In winter, the snow was not so exciting, but it's raining, so there is a compensation. And until now, the production is absolutely online with our expectation, so four terawatt hours. If you look at the thermal production, the reason for why we did more than last year are double.
The first one is that there was exactly less hydro production. The second is that looking in Europe, there was a reduction of wind of more or less 15%, 20% depending on the areas. And so we saw less import from France probably because France exported in Germany to compensate the reduction of ferroleic production in the North Of Germany. Of course, I don't know what can happen in the last month. So in our budget, let's say, is a normal production for Thermo for the next semester.
Of course, it's possible to see some upside also in this case. We know that, let's say, if you have like H2A, all the form of generation, every time you can go to goal because the total consumption in Italy is more or less the same. And so if you have thermal hydro, iolic, sun and waste to energy plant, there is a natural hedging between the different sources of production. Talking about the treatment, the price you have seen in the first semester was 9% more better than 2024. And we absolutely expect it to maintain the same performance.
The reason probably is that the ratio between demand and offer is completely unbalanced to the offer because there are 4,000,000 tons of waste that go to landfill in Italy. And 2035 is coming. In The U. Community, we need to arrive to not more than 10% in landfill. And so our plants when have capacity are able to produce, let's say, a good price. The third one, Luca, flex generation, spare spread?
Yes. Actually, it has been partially answered because the fact that we can play with different technologies gave us the flexibility to stay in the market in a very good position, so taking advantage if other technology don't work in line with the previous year or the previous month. And what has been the result in the month of January, February with the production of thermal plants in which we produce much more volumes than expected. In terms of spark spread, we can stay on the market and see with the flexibility we have in the plan we manage when it would be the case to take advantage from the policies as well. So this is the situation.
The market is going to express still some spread low double digit, which is not bad. I remember to all of you that we are hedged by 70% of our production for the fixed production at 120, which give us a certain comfort also for the second part of the year. Having said that, we are quite comfortable about the generation performance for the second half.
Thank you.
Thank you. And we'll now move on to our next question from Javier Suarez of Mediobanca. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi all and thank you for the presentation. Three questions from me as well. The first one is on the guidance. So if I'm not mistaken, the net income that of first half twenty twenty five represents something like more than 6% of the full year target at the upper end of the range. So the question is what is preventing the company from increasing that guidance that we have for 2025 I.
E. Are the dynamics that you see in the second half twenty twenty five that we should consider and that makes you to confirm guidance and not increasing that guidance? That would be the first question. Then the second question is on the generation business. I think that you have said that the output that you're expecting for 2025 is four terawatt hour.
I think in the previous conference call you mentioned 4.1 terawatt hours. Just to confirm if you are reducing that hydro output guidance for the year or simply you are rounding that figure? Also I would like to know the level of contribution from the MST market that you are expecting this year and the level of hedging that you have for 2025 and 2026 as we speak. And then the third and final question has to do with the hydroelectric concession renewal process. So the question is if you can update us on that process and is as part of that agreement A2A and I guess the rest of the sector could allocate part of the capacity to the energy intensive industry.
What is if that is a possibility and what is that discussion with the different administration? Any update on that would be very helpful. Thank you.
Okay. Xavier, for the first question, I was honest. I said that we prudently decided to maintain the guidance. So this is the answer. For the second, you are it's correct, the 4.1%, you remember very well.
Yes, because 4.1% is exactly the average level for the last from the last ten years. And we may begin to maintain exactly this level. Then consider that our storage and you know very well, our storage of water in our basin is 0.5 terawatt hour. So you can understand that the regulation 0.1 more or less is very easy to do. So how we want to arrive to the 2025 with 4.1% and our full basin, and we imagine to be able to do.
For the MSD contribution Yes. MSD contribution, we are expecting to stay in line with the previous year. Even though we are a couple of million above the previous year result in the first half, we are talking about a total amount in between €95,000,000 to €100,000,000 as it has been several time said by us, which is the target of the plan by now. In term of hedging, as I said, we are completely hedged for the second part of this year. 70% is exactly the target we want to have to stay in a comfortable situation. We also reached 40% for $26 at the price of $113 which is again a very good position in which we are very comfortable.
Okay. For question number four, it's a little more complicated. You remember that we arrived to deal the Socede fourth way because the regions can reassign the hydrocontraction through tenders, direct assignment, mixed society and now there is the discussion about the Fourth Way. The Fourth Way needs an agreement with Europe because you remember that inside the P and R agreement that is the topic of a tender for the hydro contraction is very clear that no one want to do hydro tenders.
And in the last month, there was an open discussion with inside the Conf Industry, in particular with the steel producers and also Antonio Gaudzi and the other guys about the effect to have some an hydro release able to reduce a little bit the cost of energy for this sector. After some months of discussion, there is in effect an agreement considering that our companies is for us the impact is proxy to zero because the discussion is between the price of energy and the concession fee. So our discussion is, if there is a hydro release, for example, the discussion is 15% of energy sold with more or less €70 for megawatt hours, It's clear that it's impossible to pay in this part of energy more or less €24 €25 for megawatt hours of congestion fee. But in an agreement that seems to be able to go to target, Regional Lombardy decided that is possible to accept this hypothesis. And exactly last week there was a meeting in Region Lombardy to find an agreement between region producer of energy and consumers.
And the idea is to have this hypothesis of hydro release on top of the different solution to reassign the concession. So it's the same, let's say, if the region decided to do a tender or to assign to the fourth way. This is key and super important because the idea is not to produce an agreement that produce like effect, the fact that the fourth way is not the best way for the region. So it's very important that both tender core four way for the region is the same. So the idea is to change the an article of the Decreto Versaani, so on top of the fourth way, in which every solution has embedded the hydro releasing.
And so the effect is that the decision to do tender or to do direct assignment to the actual incumbent don't change anything with the money of the regions to be clear. And also for us, the impact is really peanuts because for us, let's say, is for the way means to present a path, so a business plan with the current remuneration of our CapEx or of our operation and maintenance. And so in this business plan, there are from one side the price of selling energy from the other price because of the contractual fee. And so is, let's say, the sum is 100. It's clear, Xavier.
Thank you. And we'll now take our next question from Roberto Bottiga of Equita. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks a lot for taking my question. The first one is very quick. On the net income guidance, you actually specified that the guidance is net of the nonrecurring. But so far, we saw only positive actually one off elements.
So can you please just very briefly clarify what do you mean for the €700,000,000 or so the up of the year range without consuming the nonrecurring? I would like
you can speak a little bit far from the mic because otherwise we
I'll repeat it. So I'll repeat yes, you specify that the net income guidance in the top end of the range provided is actually excluding the one off or the non recurring. Yes.
It is on the order.
It is. Can you just please clarify what are we considering here because we saw the non recurring on EBITDA. So can you just very briefly clarify what does that mean? Then the data center or actually which elements are you actually referring to basically? The second question is on the data center.
Very quickly, we are seeing the first project which are actually pilot projects for that. Wondering if you can update on how fast this market is actually moving? And beyond only pilot projects, when you actually think there may be something coming into your business, which is more consistent from a commercial point of view? So actually how fast is actually this market moving? Then if you can please highlight us which kind of additional offer, and I mean inorganic possible options that are materializing for you in the market, both in terms of clients, networks or eventually companies that may comes in, jumps in to help the organic growth?
And very briefly, the last one, if you can start designing for us how 2026 is actually starting to look like beyond the forward sale that you mentioned before. So maybe the moving parts that you are seeing are materializing for next year as probably you'll update your plan, maybe you have at least from a qualitative perspective an idea of what 2026 is going to look like? Thanks a lot.
Okay. Again, first question. Yes, I confirm that we are talking about ordinary net income. Looking at the first half, the difference between ordinary and net income, including a special item, this is the situation in which we explain €8,000,000 related to adjustment we can consider not recurring, specifically €7,000,000 related to the adjustment of the price for the acquisition of TechnoR, the plant in Crotonne we bought three, four years ago. And there is there was a finalization of the open points, which gave us $7,000,000 of a plus and another $1,000,000 related to a minor transaction.
So this debt has been the difference between net income and ordinary net income. Related to data center, maybe I switch to Renato, which can give
you Probably the to give an idea of the incredible acceleration in the data center business is enough to say that starting from the fact that seems that in Italy, all the data center want to live near Milano. That means that in this moment 60%, 70% of the demand for new data center are around Milano in Italy, let's say. Only in the power grid that we bought from A and L last year and only since January, we received demand for new connection for two twenty megawatt of new connection. That means to understand all what it need a city like Brescia Bergamo, so it's huge. And why they ask connection to the DSO and not to the DSO?
Because in some cases are also data center bigger than 10 megawatt that is besides typically in which there is a switch between the DSO and TSO. Because they ask to turn now to have a connection let's say 30 megawatt, so turn now say, okay, it's possible, but you have to wait for three, four years. For us is for them is impossible to wait because the market is now. And so they arrive to our DSO to do an AT and say, okay, but it's possible to have 10 megawatt so I can start. And then when we'll arrive the higher connection with Verna, I can grow let's say.
And because of the DSO in particular now that is inside H2A is absolutely quicker. So my idea is that the market for the data center also in Italy will arrive in the next two, four years no longer. Also because if you look other countries like Ireland and so on, the idea is that this is the moment for Milano, for Madrid, for other metropolitan areas that have to recover capacity against countries, but for many reasons are more strong than us in data center. And it's an incredible opportunity for H2A because we have the grid, we have the generation, they need absolutely baseload. And the only way also in U.
S. In every part of the world to have baseload power generation is gas generation. And you know how our power gas generation, how strong is and how is able to give baseload connection. We have district heating and so we have possibility to increase the POE, so the sustainability of this machine and maybe also the capacity to have a path for permitting and so on. So I think that can become a business for us quickly.
About M and A, I'm sorry, but the answer is as usual. So we have a strong CapEx plan and we are able to arrive more than €3,000,000,000 of EBITDA with organic growth. But it's clear that with our flexibility, if some opportunity will arrive on our path, surely we are able to look it.
And 2036 please, was my last question.
Well, I think that the only answer you can have now, it is that it is in line with the business plan. So we already discussed several time. And until we prepare the new budget and the new business plan, nothing change.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Alberto De Antonio of BNP Paribas. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon and thank you so much for taking my questions. I have two or three remaining questions. The first one will be regarding report that Aurora published recently regarding suggesting that you could have been involved in some kind of market manipulation. There could be a final decision of potential sanctions to arrive by March 26 at the latest. Maybe if you could elaborate what are the implications of this report?
If you could quantify what will be your base case and worst case scenario in terms of sanctions, if any? And also if this could trigger any potential revision on your Guiness Park spread target that you have in your business plan? And the second one will be regarding your balance sheet on the receivables past due. I've noticed that in the last few quarters, the amount has increased substantially, although in the last quarter has decreased. But could you explain us what has driven this increase?
And what should we expect for future quarters? And if these trade receivables are specific of one business unit or coming from all aggressive business units? And finally, one final question regarding district heating. If I'm not wrong, a new regulation is expected for 2026. Could you elaborate where we are in terms of the discussions with Airea?
And what's the time line that we can expect for it and your expectations in terms of returns? Thank you so much.
Okay. I think that we can talk about Adera altogether. So question number one and number three. About the first question, I think that is can be useful to divide the two elements arriving from Mareira in the last weeks. From one side, the new interpretation of the RAIMIT.
The RAIMIT probably is a regulated framework defined in Europe in 2011. Two, for the functioning of the energy market, in particular of marginal price in the free market of energy. And every company that I know in Italy dispatch energy since 2011 in the same way. And this actual Board of Herrera was appointed seven years ago. And for seven years, never discussion about the way to dispatch energy was open.
So first of all, it's very strange that in the last two weeks of this Board, they opened a discussion very complicated, let's say, because the discussion is an interpretation of a remit. And in particular, the discussion is if in the marginal price is possible to introduce an opportunity cost that is the cost to have a little marginality in your thermal production. But for us, of course, is absolutely normal because if the interpretation correlate was that you have to put your energy on the after day market without marginality. For me, it's much better to maintain close the plant, of course. So from one side, there is a discussion that is open to all the companies that dispatch energy in Italy inside Eletrizta Futura, so Confiendustia.
Also because in this survey, Aera individuated 25 companies that dispatch energy. And for example, there are not 25 company that dispatch thermal energy. In Italy, that dispatch thermal energy, there are four or five, let's say. So is then is that very open also to solar production, neolip production to all? So a very high level discussion.
And I think that in the next month, with the new Board, Eletricita Futagura will face this topic to find a solution. And if you ask to me, I absolutely don't expect it to have effect in the way to dispatch energy for the next years. In particular, the decision of Ferreira to open not a sanction, let's say, but a I don't know how it's possible to say, is a process to evaluate its sanction is related to March 22. Surely you remember that Putin decided to attack Ukraine on the 02/24/2022. And you remember what happened in March 2022.
With the highest volatility in energy in all the history of the world, the highest price that arrives to €600 €700 €800 per megawatt hour. Newspaper that says to all the cities and don't use gas because I don't know if in October we'll have gas or not. And our marginal coal account arrived to a couple of billion of euros to be able to trade energy in the long period. So a situation in which, let's say, surely no one company stayed in this situation to try to gain one, two, three, four megawatt hours in the dispatch of money. So I don't know, frankly speaking, why Areola decided to open this.
There are two fifty days to conclude this process. If your question is material or not the eventual sanction, the answer is not material. So it's more a topic of principle to understand. And it's very important because it's a pilot, let's say, but it's useful also to face the more general interpretation of Ferreira for all the energy market. So I imagine that we and we with Enel, with Edison, with all the friends in Hetrichs de Futura will be able to face this discussion with the new authority, because this authority expired the August 8.
This is the reason for why also for this TTT new regulation we have to wait, because this authority decided not to move forward in the discussion of this strategic regulation because, of course, and it's correct to leave to the new authority the decision of what to do.
Regarding trade receivable and the performance we are going to expect until the end of the year. The trend, generally speaking, is that trade receivable will increase at the end of the year accordingly to the seasonality of the market. These are more related to the supply business unit, which is the business unit which on which we have the most important part of the total receivable in the balance sheet. But as we have lost safeguarded market for the reason I explained before, the positive effect on the other side is that we will have a decrease in trade receivable related to the part of this segment, but also the fact that some of those customers are reassured by a mechanism with the regulator, which guarantees us to receive a certain amount of money for those customers are not disconnectable.
And according to that, we will receive something like €60,000,000 cash, which contribute to give us a better cash inflows for the future for the end year.
Thank you. Maybe a follow-up on this last answer. This means that the CHF 60,000,000 is like a recurring impact or it's just like compensation No. One
It is a one off. It is related to the fact that we let's say, for this, it would have been recurring in the case we gain the safeguarded market again and again. But in our case, as we lost the tender, for the reason I explained that the marginality was pretty low, should be considered as a one off.
And therefore, and apologies for following up, of those €700,000,000 of trade receivables past year, how much are related to this framework of the safeguard that have to be compensated by just 60,000,000
More or less EUR 300,000,000, but we can be more precise later on if you want. But this is the magnitude, more or less the 50% of the total amount of the trade receivable you see in the balance sheet.
Thank you.
The other ones affected by the seasonality, of course. So you have, this amount, which at the end of the year is a picture in which, you are at the peak, at the seasonality. And, during the year, you have the cash in accordingly.
Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from David Candela of Intesa Sanpaolo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon everyone. Thanks for taking my question and the presentation. I also have three if I may. The first one is still on data centers more related to eight ways commercial purchases. So I was wondering if your strategy will be participating in the connection for the three seat networks and maybe proposing yourself as a supplier or if you are thinking about potentially involving and putting some equity in some project in order to accelerate the execution and maybe decommissioning and also some have some, I don't know, some kind of a framework agreement that is benefiting you.
Just wondering if you can update on that. Secondly, on the energy supply, looking at the customer base, it seemed that among the biggest operators in the market, at least looking at the utility side, you are among the few that did not lost some customers in the first half of the year. And so just wondering if you can update us on the competition, how you see the churn rates and if there are some newcomers that are really treating the market or is this just a temporary thing? And last on a clarification on the guidance with regards to the net debt. If I take the upper hand of EBITDA times 2.5 times that is the ratio you're seeing for debt to EBITDA, I come to kind of close 5,500,000,000.0 The consensus is like more than EUR 200,000,000 higher currently.
So I was wondering what is the consensus not seeing or if it is just some surroundings or if it is some structural working capital that is fully recovered and would not present by the A on B hand? Thank you.
Okay. For the first question about data center, we are discussing exactly in this week the new strategy, but we want to introduce it inside the update of the industrial plan. Surely, the idea is to be a partner, a partner because we know that we can be completely key for a data center developer because we are able to give the connection. That is also to be clear an incredible opportunity for the manager power grid because are not activities on ramp on tariff, but are commercial activities of course. And the cost of the connection for 10 megawatt or 200 megawatt is absolutely irrelevant.
From the other side, without power base load, the power supply is impossible to with redundancy is impossible to imagine to have a data center. And from the other side, the data center compete one each other and the sustainability. So the KPI, POE of the data center is key to be to face the appetite of the final customer. So in a situation like this, you can imagine easily how many developer or data center are knocking to our door to open discussion. We are able to put also equity and can be an interesting opportunity because it seems super interesting like return of capital.
And for us, it's also interesting the fact that the area in which is probable to see the really development of data center is exactly our areas. That means more or less the triangle with Milano, Brescia, Bergamo. Remember that data center needs also backup. Backup from big, big problem that is flow the earthquake and so on. And so there is a need of backup with plants that maintain, let's say, 50 kilometers one from the other.
And this is the reason for why we are analyzing also a triangle between different cities in near in Lombardy, near Milano, but also cities like Bergamo or Brescia or Lodipavia and others, so all in our territories are surely eligible to be back up from Milano. In this moment, the huge development is near Milano. Mamilano needs back up south of the province of Milano. And this is the other reason for why you can understand how it's interesting to have H2A like a partner. If you consider, for example, that our the waste to energy plant, for example, the waste to energy plant in Brescia is able to source sixty, seventy megawatt of power, continuous power, baseload, 50% of energy green because it's a part of the waste that is in carbon neutrality, Wohud and so on.
Also from this kind of plant is very interesting to be able to be sourced if you have a data center. So, we'll define clearly our strategy in the next month, but absolutely it's possible also to see a way like investors in this sector. Customer base is clear our capacity to compete. Ever in the last year, our churn was much better than the average churn declared from Aera for all the other competitors. And when the competition is higher, the level of quality that you give to your customers is directly linked to the churn and the result is the possibility to grow or not with your customer base.
So in this moment, we are very happy because our strategy is working well. The cost to acquire increased a little bit because we decided to have also FIGITAL, let's say, so not only digital of our direct channel, but also store very developed in Northern Peninsula. In this moment, we have customers in 99% of the municipality in Italy. And so the other reason for why we are growing is that our brand, our awareness is very high. And when probably in another call, I said that our awareness in this moment is 67%.
Our market share is 6%, 7%. And the differences between market share and awareness is the reason for why there is a funnel that helps the growth of our customer base.
Related to the ratio on net financial position EBITDA, yes, I can say that it will improve compared to the, let's say, level to be below 2.7%, 2.6%. And we are going to project 2,400,000,000.0 2,500,000,000.0 at the end of the year. This is due to the nice cash flow we are going to experience, as you have seen, but also for the rest of the year.
Thank you. Very clear.
So thank you everyone for participating to the conference call. Thank you for your question. If you have any additional deep dive request, please contact the IR department. And in the meantime, I wish you a very pleasant and relaxing summer break. Thank you, everyone.
Thanks. Bye.
Bye bye.