Good morning. Thank you, everyone, for attending our Capital Market Day. We have a couple of busy hours in front of us. First, our CFO, Luca Moroni, will comment on nine months' results. Then our CEO, Renato Mazzoncini, will drive you through the update of our capital and the strategic plan at 2035. Without spending any more time, we are ready to start, and I leave the floor to Luca.
Thank you very much, Marco. I will go through the presentation of our nine months' results. Starting from the highlights, as usual. Perfect.
We show a good resilience in economic and financial results, despite the exceptional hydroelectric production of the previous year. The contribution of margin deriving from the growing performance of the electricity network, the higher premium on the Capacity Market, and the increase in the urban waste treatment prices absorbed the negative effect arising from lower hydroelectric production, returning to historical average levels, and the exit from the safeguard market. Sound economic and financial performance confirmed. Reported EBITDA recorded a limited decrease reaching EUR 1,729 million. Net of the impact deriving from hydroelectric production, which is one of the few exceptional effects recorded in 2024, EBITDA grew by 3%. Ordinary net income, excluding special items recorded on both 2024 and 2025, showed a decrease of 16% compared to nine months' 2024, standing at EUR 559 million.
Adjusting 2024 results for the effect of last year's hydroelectric production, ordering net income decreased by 3%. We confirmed the solidity of our financial ratios. Our net financial position lands at EUR 5.3 billion, with a net financial position to EBITDA ratio equal to 2.4 x, which is a decrease compared to last year's 2.5x. Resilient EBITDA despite normalization in hydro volumes. Despite normalization in hydro volumes, EBITDA remained resilient. Generation and trading, ordering EBITDA, amounted to EUR 623 million, with a decrease of 20%, EUR 160 million less compared to the first nine months 2024. The change is mainly attributable to the normalization of our hydro production, - 26%, -1 TWh , resulting in a margin reduction of around EUR 130 million. The lower opportunity from energy commodity hedging, the higher contribution of thermoelectric production, and the increase in the premium awarded on the Capacity Market.
Supply ordering [EBITDA] amounted at EUR 328 million, with a decrease of 9%, EUR -34 million compared to the nine months 2024. We confirmed the level of the marginality recorded the same period of last year, net of the effect from the safeguard market, which accounts for EUR 33 million. The outcome is the positive effect of the commercial development of the free-market electricity segment, 109,000 customers more compared to last year, + 7%, lower retention costs, and the increase in operating costs arising from sales channel mix. Circular Economy ordering EBITDA amounted to EUR 423 million, with a growth of EUR 20 million, + 5% compared to the first nine months 2024. Here, also, the increase is mainly attributable to the positive contribution of waste-to-energy treatment prices, being partially offset by lower margin from the new contract with the Campania region for the management of Acerra plant.
The positive contribution of district heating, thanks to higher volumes sold, + 96 GW thermic gigawatt-per-hour, + 5%, and higher volumes from sales of white certificates. The decrease in the Collection segment, mainly following the new contract signed with Milan after the tender, slightly affected the marginality. Regulated network EBITDA amounted to EUR 359 million, with a decrease of 29% year-on-year. The decrease in the margin is mainly attributable to the performance of the new perimeter in the electricity network, + 68 million, as well as the increase in low revenues of a historical perimeter, EUR +23 million, and the lower marginality deriving from the disposal of gas distribution assets. Let's see our income statement, starting from EBITDA of EUR 1,729 million.
We recorded EUR 704 million depreciation, amortization, and write-off, up compared to last year, EUR 45 million, 23% for the delta perimeter of the new electricity company, Duereti, and the new CapEx plan carried out during the period. Net provision of EUR 69 million, net financial expenses of EUR 128 million due to the new debt volume effect. I just recall the new issuance we had in January of the EU Green Bond in the new format and the bridge loan for the acquisition of the new asset from Enel Distribuzione. Taxes of EUR 244 million, with a reduction of EUR 42 million compared to the first nine months 2024, with a tax rate of 29%, in line with the previous year. Minor interest at EUR 28 million for a net income of EUR 559 million, including EUR 22 million of special items, mainly due to the plus value coming from the asset deal of the gas network.
The group net income is EUR 581 million. We continue to invest, to grow, and to support ecological transition. CapEx in the first nine months amounted to EUR 1,037 million, up 15% compared to nine months of the previous year, supporting the ecological transition. Development CapEx amounted to EUR 6,018 million, mainly focused on upgrading the efficiency of the grid, the increasing of the flexibility of generation plants, and the development of photovoltaic and wind power plants. 70% of the CapEx are eligible for taxonomy, and 51% are aligned. Net free cash flow. During the period, the change in our net financial position was positive and amounted to EUR 518 million. Operating cash flow fully financed CapEx plan and dividend payments, which is very good news.
As of September 30, the company reported a net financial position of EUR 5,317 million, consistent with the first alpha, reflecting an improvement of net financial position to EBITDA ratio to 2.4 x compared to 2.5x as of the end of December 2024. In light of the solid result we have just commented, our guidance for EBITDA is confirmed in the upper end of the range, EUR 2,170 million-EUR 2,200 million, and the group net profit, net of non-recurring items, between the range of EUR 680 million-EUR 700 million. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Moroni. Okay, thank you, Luca. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being here or connected at our Capital Markets Day. Since Luca's presentation of the last quarter, you have seen the name of the plan presented last year, Lifeyards, which told the story of a company that is committed to building the future every day by investing in infrastructure, renewable energy, as Marguerite. We need more power today, more efficiency, and more sustainability. Data is the heart of this revolution, and data centers are spreading across our territory and are growing very quickly. Today, we are ready to seize our momentum to drive the digital and ecological transition with competencies and responsibility. Just a moment, guys, because I started without moving the slide. No, sorry, I came back. No company is future-proof, but some companies are future-ready.
A2A is one such company, ready to face the future and ready to power. Today, we will illustrate how A2A is writing one of the most compelling success stories in the Europe energy landscape, a story built on financial discipline, industrial excellencies, and strategic foresight, with a long-term vision that focuses on the twofold opportunities of Energy Transition and Circular Economy, further accelerated by artificial intelligence development. I'll begin by giving you a brief overview. We started with a brief overview of the energy landscape that I think can be very interesting for you, and we'll then run through the key highlights of our strategy. I'll hand over to Luca, who will illustrate to you our key financials and how long-term financial stability underpins our growth and ensures the platform for our acceleration into the future. Start with the landscape.
Electrification is driven by a rapid growth of data centers, which we will talk about at length during the presentation, but not only, because also e-mobility and heat pumps are constantly decreasing in cost and entering the market, creating totally additional electrical demand. In this graph, you can see the growth of electrical demand in the next year. In this graph, it clearly shows that the demand for electricity is growing, while at the same time, the demand for fossil energy is decreasing. Overall, the total final consumption is decreasing because the efficiency of electrical equipment, as well, is much higher than the fossil fuel equivalents, and so there is a total reduction. Therefore, electrification is also the only route to decarbonization. Decarbonization, where also more niche but fundamental technologies in complex urban contexts, such as waste-to-energy or district heating, also helps.
Let's have a closer look at the data center trend in Italy. In this map, you can see the total capacity of 55 GW of connection already requested to Terna. The geographical distribution not only rewards Lombardy, which is not a surprise, but also two regions in the south, in particular Puglia and Sicily, which are located on some of the most important underwater data networks in the world. We will, therefore, be able to seize opportunities. Let's think of our plants in the north, but also of sites such as San Filippo del Mela in Sicily or Brindisi in Puglia. Our estimate, which we presented, you remember, in September in Cernobbio with Tea, is one of the most conservative on the market in this moment. The base scenario, 2.3 GW, full potential, 4.6 GW.
The potential of heat recovery for district heating is interesting because it can double the thermal energy available. That is a particularly interesting opportunity in Milan, which sees 50% of Italian data centers on this territory, and the district heating network that currently covers only less than 20% of buildings. From one side, great opportunity to grow district heating, from the other, heat recovery from data center. Investment needs in electricity distribution grid in Italy are over EUR 10 billion per year, only over the horizon of our industrial plan, 2035, mainly driven by new demand, but also by the need to connect new renewable generation and renewable grid.
It is also interesting to see that the PNIEC, that is our National Integrated Plan, Energy and Climate, updated by the Meloni government in 2024, has pushed the renewable energy target to a level never seen before, 63% by 2030, which, in my opinion, is the obvious reaction after the wars of a country that is the third in Europe for renewable potential after Norway and France, but Italy has neither Norway's fossil fuel nor France's nuclear power. With renewables, also storage is growing. It is interesting, the result of the first MACSE tender, the result is due to very low battery prices, the result of competition between Chinese players, and consequently, a very low price of time shift. We have calculated about EUR 30-EUR 35 for megawatt hours of the cost of time shift, which make renewable even more competitive during the day.
Finally, I would like to point out that the Capacity Market programs launched by Terna in recent years to avoid the risk of blackouts, such as what is seen in Spain, are leading to the construction of a powerful fleet of new high-efficiency gas-fired CCGT plants. The efficiency is 62%-63% compared with 40%-50% of the efficiency for the old plants. Less CO2, lower energy price, which replaces the Italian generation fleet with a power of 5 GW, but more or less is equal to all the Spanish nuclear power. What is key is that the load factor of CCGTs now is around 20%, and also in the horizon of the plan without data centers. That means that is, therefore, more than able to cope with the increase in demand from data centers.
It is enough to look at the following graph to understand how our strategic decision in recent years has permitted A2A to pave the way toward electrification in Italy. We invested EUR 10 billion over the last 10 years, EUR 10 billion, 60% of which focused on electrification. Our investment in electrification includes the swap between part of A2A gas network with Enel's power grid in the province of Milan-Brescia. The result is the swap in the value of the RAB in our asset gas and power grid. Focused investment in renewable with a good mix of Wind and Solar to build increasingly competitive PPAs for our B2B customer, and an electricity customer base that has grown by 61% between 2020 and today, 61% the customer base electrical. A2A has currently three unique features. The first, the presence in both Energy Transition and Circular Economy space.
The second, being established in Lombardy, which is the center of the development area, and the third, being ready thanks to the previous investment choices. The first of them, which really distinguishes A2A in the Italian scenario, is that it is the sole player, not only vertically integrated in Energy Transition networks, generation, and customer base, but also vertically integrated in Circular Economy with strong crossover elements such as waste-to-energy and district heating. It is an issue that we have been supporting for some time, but today, a phenomenon has arrived that is focusing everyone's attention, that is the data center. A key tool of competition at the navel of the digital revolution, which, however, requires a systemic approach to sustainability issues. Connection to the electricity grid, supply of base-load energy, but with low CO2 impact, efficient cooling system and heat recovery, and efficient water management.
Lombardy, once again, is the heart of action. We are ready. A2A is clearly a single development partner capable of addressing all these issues in an integrated and efficient way. This is our momentum driven by growth, new businesses, and new geographies, increasing our productivity. These are our numbers, which Luca will tell you about in more detail later. We are following the path traced in January 2021, you remember, when we presented the first 10-year plan. At that time, the target seemed very challenging. Today, we are surpassing most of them, despite the delays generated by COVID and wars. Today is the time of our momentum. EUR 23 billion of investment still growing in comparison with the Lifeyards plan, of which EUR 16 billion in the Energy Transition. What is important, however, is this graph, in which you can see the status of our investment.
Of the EUR 23 billion of CapEx that will bring A2A to EUR 3.6 billion of EBITDA, 35% are already completed or under construction, 35% already approved and ready to start. This is what is needed in Europe, as Mr. Draghi also reminds us in his famous report, to build infrastructure that makes Italy and Europe competitive and sustainable over time. Today, the 12th of November, we have over 250 large-scale construction sites in all our sectors in this moment. I ask if it's possible to send a video, a very short video about.
Over the past years, we haven't waited for the future. We've built it. Yard by yard, year by year, we've expanded renewable generation, strengthened strategic infrastructure, created ever smarter grids, and combined innovation and circularity. Today, we're entering the era of artificial intelligence. Data centers, the engines of this revolution, stand on our territories, and the demand for energy is growing exponentially. At A2A, we're ready, ready to deliver efficient, sustainable power, ready to lead the digital and ecological transition. This is our momentum, the force that drives us into the future, A2A Momentum, ready to power.
Okay, let's start with the highlights of the strategy. Investment in the electricity grid is still growing, reaching EUR 4.9 billion, which will bring the electricity RAB to EUR 4 billion by 2035. The acceleration, as we will see, derives mainly from the efficient integration of the former Enel network. I would like to underline two aspects. The first is the EBITDA per pod in strong growth, thanks to both growing investment, of course, and the economy of scale generated by the doubling of the number of pods managed by A2A.
Today, we arrived at 2 million pods managed. The second aspect is the deployment of the electricity network projected to triple our current rate in kilometers of electricity grid lead, reinforcing our commitment to electrification. You can imagine I am really happy that the dual rate deal was finally understood properly. The good news for all is that compared to the dual rate acquisition plan, in the first year, because you remember we started to manage January 2025 this network, we have developed 23% more CapEx than expected. You know that the value of this network is the quantity of CapEx that you are able to invest on, which was not at all obvious in a network that we did not know, and with an absolute value more than double the investment made at the same pre-acquisition network in 2024.
The EBITDA produced is 7% more than we estimated we had in the plan, in the acquisition plan. We are very satisfied, both from a strategic point of view with the performance that we are achieving on the new network. The strategic value is clearly represented by the 280 MW of connection requested for data centers received only from January to date alone. Main connection for data centers up to 10 MW. If the data center arrives to 10 MW, it is the main connection. Backup connection for larger ones, because even the larger data centers start with a 10 MW medium voltage connection, because dual rate is faster than Terna in delivery and guarantees a faster time to market for developers. The topic for them is this one.
Today, everybody is talking about data centers, but let's not neglect mobility, as car costs have fallen in the last years. This is interesting. 24% less city car, 12% less small car. And you know, in the same period, the cost of endothermic vehicles grew. In line with the normal market dynamics, it will react accordingly, reaching 20% of share of electrical vehicles by 2035. We estimated that at national level, electricity consumption for electric transportation will reach 40 TWh. There is no doubt that Lombardy and Milan will be front runners also in e-mobility. We continue to invest selectively in charging infrastructure, specializing in the two segments that we believe will be successful, that are only the slow charging city plugs, so low CapEx for urban widespread mobility, or high-power charging apps in high-traffic extra-urban areas.
Regarding our investment in renewable energy, we confirm our commitment of reaching 3.7 GW with a balanced development between Wind and Solar. It is interesting that we estimate an increase in production per megawatt installed due to the effect of repowering and the increased productivity of new plants. We will grow by 54% in Wind and 28% in Solar. Our pipeline has also grown, now totaling over 2 GW of Wind and Solar capacity. Of particular importance is the issue of the risking of the Generation portfolio. You know that is an issue for you, super important. The first level of the risking remains the diversification of generation sources, both in terms of technology and geography. Compared to the commonly used description, we have added an important distinction, so a new distinction between traditional CCGTs and high-efficiency CCGTs. You know, it is the blue and color.
The latter, obviously, will have more market space, you remember 62%-63% of efficiency, and constitute one of the strategic elements of the risking. Furtherly, incentivize renewable, a Capacity Market, but also the growing market for PPAs that is growing. We estimated we'll cover 65% of our renewable production and 70% of our energy mix will be renewable. Lastly, and importantly, the natural edging between generation and customer base remains crucial. As can be seen from this graph, A2A remains long on sales, with generation well covered by final customers' consumption along the whole plan. Regarding customer, so we talk a little bit about customer, the retail sector has been increased competition. You know, these are the data according to ARERA data, which rates have risen by 1.8x in recent years. What is happening in 2025, that is the curve is changing.
Today, this is the data from ARERA. The electricity customer base will continue to grow compared to the gas. You have seen our mix between customer gas and customer electricity customer is changing completely. The acquisition strategy aims to carefully select geographies and sales channels focusing on the acquisition of the high-value customers. The target of 5 million customers remains confirmed as per previous plan and also this year, despite the loss of customers under safeguard. Margins remain very healthy. In the B2B segment, it is interesting, the dynamics is the opposite. The churn is declining, with a rate that is now even lower than retail. Probably it is the first time in the history of our country. It is interesting because the B2B is a segment in which A2A is very active, with over 10% of market share.
Precisely because of the strategy of vertical integration with generation that, hello, us to propose corporate PPAs. Corporate PPAs remain key, and B2B customers are key to close agreements in PPAs. Moving in the Circular Economy, let's start with the waste cycle. Italy is not a bad place on the European scene with respect to the 2035 goals. You remember 10%, no more than 10% in landfill, but there is still a lot to do. Frankly speaking, in the Lombardy region, where the incumbent operator in urban waste is A2A, the use of landfill, you know, is close to zero. The plan provides for growth in both the volume of waste treated and thermal and electrical energy recovered.
It is worth mentioning that in 2024, the third waste-to-energy line in Parona started up with a treatment capacity of more or less 250,000 tons, and another plant with another 250,000 tons is already under construction in Corteolona. You have seen in the video. Today, A2A is the sole company in Italy that is building a waste-to-energy plant in a situation in which the gap that we have to fill with the European target remains 4 million tons. One of the new elements of this plan is the integration of waste management, water cycle, district heating, and data center businesses into the new Circular Economy business unit. We have built a new business unit named Circular Economy with altogether this business. The Circular Economy business unit with a EUR 6.5 billion CapEx plan will reach EUR 1.3 billion of EBITDA.
One of the levers will be an eager integration in the B2B supply chain. The Circular Economy business unit will be strongly impacted by the data center development. For example, the issue of water management becomes crucial with data center. Let's take a closer look on how A2A plans to approach the data center business. Let's start with the most easily predictable activity. A2A as an energy partner is normal of a data center in operation or under construction. We have estimated that growth in electricity demand from data center could reach 42 TWh at the full potential of the scenario presented in Chernobyl. Interesting, but our scenario is significantly more conservative than the one published a few days ago by Terna. The Terna scenario estimated an electricity demand of almost 600 TWh, 508 TWh by 2050, with a significant contribution from data center.
Also, Mr. Picchietto every time says that we reach 600 TWh of energy consumption. Again, based on our most conservative scenario, we have estimated that the demand for electricity connection to the medium voltage grid in the province of Milan, we reach 1,400 MW. Likewise, according to our assumption, we have estimated the energy that could be recovered from data centers for district heating with a full potential of 3 thermal terawatt-hours capable of heating about 300,000 apartments in Milan. The impact in terms of CapEx and the EBITDA of A2A energy partner activity is included within the individual businesses. In generation, market, networks, district heating with potential upside to be captured. If there is a party, we do not want to go just to be the DJ.
Therefore, since we have a very attractive value proposition, we have allocated EUR 1.6 billion of CapEx to develop a part of the great national data center plan. Let's take a closer look at our value proposition. One of the most important needs for data centers is evidently related to low-cost, high-resilience baseload energy supply. The best configuration that guarantees these two elements at the same time is the direct connection of the generation plants to the data center, which requires simply that the data center be located in close proximity to the generation plants. It is interesting to see on the map how many generation plants A2A has in Lombardy and how concentrated they are around Milan.
The baseload production, baseload production guaranteed by both our waste-to-energy plant and thermal electrical plants, combined with the growth mix of renewable, is attracting a lot of interest from operators in terms of final energy supply cost and time to market. It's difficult in this moment to say what is better, cost of energy or time to market, because it's a moment really very particular. The EBITDA we expected in 2035, supplementary with the supplementary to the activities of energy partners, is EUR 0.4 billion by 2035. The first projects have already been carefully identified, and the first analyses are underway. I can say the name today, but you can easily understand from the graph. It is very interesting to see in the graph what impact a partner like A2A can have on the economics of the data center development.
As you can see, 65% of the OpEx is related to energy consumption. The other is personal and maintenance. This 65%, once again, is 65% for server room, 25% for cooling system, and 10% for other components. Thanks to A2A competitive advantage, we can work on the 65% of energy-related consumption and reduce the overall cost down to less than 50%. Believe me, this is super conservative. By direct connection between data center and generation plants, in Italy is named SSPC, so it is a direct connection, a cable that goes from generation to final user, to reduce the network charges, because in this case, you have not to pay TSO and DSO and the relative tax. Heat recovery, the second is heat recovery for district heating and efficient cooling supply. I keep energy and they reduce the cost for data center.
Furthermore, PPAs and energy management could also reduce volatility risk of a business. Consider that data center is the perfect customer for a PPAs because it's super predictive of the consumption baseload of energy for all the life of a data center. I would like to close this section by talking about our geographical footprint, our backyard. I think it is important to recall that when we presented the first 10-year plan in January 2021, some of you surely will remember, we had planned to develop A2A in Europe as well with some of the company's most core businesses, in particular, waste-to-energy and renewable energy. In 2022, following the Russia-Ukraine war, we updated the business plan by bringing all CapEx back to Italy to contribute more quickly to our country's energy autonomy.
Today, we believe that it is necessary to return to a more European footprint, to a geographical diversification that lets us identify opportunities with higher returns and faster execution. The tender, let's say, between countries is to be more attractive for investment. Therefore, a part of the CapEx envisaged in the plan and not yet definitively allocated, there is a part of the CapEx that is not definitively allocated, that means not additional, to be clear, can be used as an opportunity of international expansion, which will take place gradually and typically with the first inorganic moves. The focus remains on the core businesses, particularly in the waste value chain, starting from waste-to-energy with potential integration with Collection.
You know, there is a natural edge in between connection and treatment that we have to maintain, and district heating, and in the area of power value chain by integrating renewable generation, energy management, and customer base. Our development strategy will lay on country commitment, identifying potential targets for an initial external growth as an anchoring platform model for further development. The work is already underway, and we have identified priorities in different countries according to the targets. You can see the picture in the graph. For example, the Iberian Peninsula and the U.K. are most interesting for waste-to-energy, while Germany and Poland are of interest in the power supply chain. Okay, I close this part, and now I leave the floor to Luca so I can drink some water. Please, Luca.
Thank you. Thank you, Renato. I will now walk you through the plan financials.
As an infrastructure company, we are presenting EUR 23 billion investments, a further increase on what we presented last year. This will generate profitable growth over the plan horizon and will enable the company to capture new opportunities arising from the evolving needs in the utility sector. CapEx deployment is going to fuel structural industrial EBITDA, substituting the temporary effect from better hydro condition and good hedging opportunity we seized during the last period. The EUR 23 billion of investment are driven by our two well-known pillars, Energy Transition and Circular Economy. What is new for you is the EUR 1.6 billion direct investment in data center, the data center platform, which I will elaborate later on. The expectation regarding electrification and the potential for fast and strong demand dynamics, driven also by data center, lead us to be more selective in our project pipeline.
We have decided to increase investment in electricity grid by almost EUR 800 million and to refocus our treatment investment primarily on energy recovery. This plan will result in a robust EBITDA CAGR of + 5% from 2025 to 2035 and + 6% of CAGR if we switch our base to 2028, when the development of data center will start playing its role. The data center platform is our initial structural approach to embed this opportunity in our targets, driving a growing contribution up to EUR 300 million EBITDA in 2035. Finally, the EBITDA breakdown between merchant and low volatility activities highlights the adequate balance of risk and stability, which underscores our confidence.
2025 to 2035, with a robust 8% of growth in the period of 2028- 2035. The growth doesn't include the full potential coming from data center, namely increasing electricity supply, medium voltage connection, district heating network expansion. Our commitment, at least 4% year-over-year dividend growth, is confirmed, reinforcing the company focus on rewarding shareholders while maintaining financial discipline. We believe that the fruit of our financial management will continue to make A2A a very attractive proposition for our shareholder, with a forecast return on investment of + 9%, a 12% of return of equity, and a payout ratio between 45% and 55%. Our guidance is expected EBITDA between EUR 2.21 billion-EUR 2.25 billion and ordinary net income ranging from EUR 630 million to EUR 660 million.
These figures reflect the company confidence in achieving a steady operational performance and short-term profitability, while laying the foundation for stronger future growth through a remarkable CapEx plan. Thank you. I will now leave the floor again to Renato.
Thank you, Luca. And a few minutes for closing remarks, and then we start with questions. Also, because it has been a long but I hope interesting presentation. The opportunities are many. As in the presentation of a Lifey ards plan, let me leave you with this thought: A2A growth today no longer has the bottleneck of the industrial machine. On the contrary, it is full of human capital that wants to do, wants to grow, and to create long-lasting value. If any, the bottleneck is our solid and rigorous approach to financial policies, which could also open up to partnership to seize further opportunities in the future.
In this slide, you can see another EUR 300 million of potential EBITDA that can be generated by other projects that we already have in the pipeline. Talking about new utilities, battery, reforms of electricity grid, district heating growth, and so on. We have many things in the toolbox, but not everything. This is why we have decided to set up the new Life Ventures company to increase our commitment to innovation, venture capital, and collaboration with startups, universities, and research centers. Today, A2A is the largest Italian corporate venture capital in climate tech. We have just launched the LIFE II fund, which already raised EUR 150 million out of a EUR 200 million final target. We are very happy. There are many activities already underway with startups and many investments made in the past. Energy Dome, I think that is a super good example.
All are proving to be a great vision and foresight. A2A has already implemented several use cases with startups, including, for example, digital twin for predictive maintenance on electricity network, artificial intelligence-powered plastic sorting. Really, believe me, digital twins on the networks, a lot of applications. In this moment, we have more than 100 projects with artificial intelligence ongoing in the company. Finally, our commitment to a competitive but sustainable transition, our net zero commitment to 2050, and the decarbonization curve that you know to 2030 remains solid. It remains solid because our decarbonization path will cope sustainability targets with improvement in our performance along our business lines. Only some examples in water cycle, district heating, supply, and so on. In this last slide, we summarize the main data, which need, I think, no further comment before we open the floor to your question.
Let me recap some of today's key points. To be in the right place at the right time is always a good thing, but it's not enough unless you are also future-fit and ready to seize short and long-term opportunities. Today, A2A is ready. Ready to power, and in particular, ready to grasp the opportunities arising from the growth of data centers in Italy and in Europe. Our integrated industrial backbone, powered by EUR 23 billion in strategical investment, expanding regulated assets, and growing footprint in electrification, renewable, and Circular Economy, gives us the scale and solidity to thrive through change. Our clear vision, aligned with the Europe Energy Transition, has enabled us to anticipate structural changes and to cover them into opportunities. Our economic stability has provided the platform for acceleration.
This is what makes us the company that is now driving renewed confidence and recognition in the market. Thank you very much, and the floor is open for your question.
Thank you, Renato. Thank you, Luca. First of all, we will open the question to the floor. We will also move to the connection lines. Let's start with the floor. First one, Javier Suarez from Mediobanca.
Thank you, Marco, and good morning all. Two questions that are the first group related to the short term and then to the medium term. Asking for the short-term assumption that the company has changed in 2026, 2027, and 2028. Can you share with us the underlying assumptions for 2026, the changes that you have implemented? Because I have noticed that the previous net income target was EUR 700 million. If I'm not mistaken, now the company is targeting EUR 650 million of net income in 2026. The question is, which are the moving pieces for that? I have also noticed that the target for 2027 has been the same one for 2028. In that period that goes from 2026 to 2028, what the company sees through different lenses that makes that the profitability of the company or the net income is going to be lower.
On the medium term, it is fair to say that the company has for the first time included into its business plan the data center opportunity from 2028 to 2035. If that is the case, why the EUR 400 million of increase that you are forecasting is not fully translated into your previous target? Because the previous target has been increased by EUR 300 million. Data center opportunities quantified at EUR 400 million, which is the moving piece in the EBITDA target. A related question is philosophical on the data center opportunity. How does A2A see itself? Is it going to be a builder of data center, or is it going to be a company serving data center? The last question to leave space to other colleagues is, how does A2A see this business?
I have noticed that the business has not been included into the Generation business, it has been included into the district Circular Economy unit. This means that the company sees a different pricing, different dynamics, a different opportunity for this business that is going to be decorrelated from the Generation activity. The thing that I am trying to capture is that the pricing of this electricity that is sold to data centers is going to follow a completely different logic. Thank you.
Do you have one per one?
No, one per one. One for one.
Okay. I try to answer to the medium term, and then I leave Luca for 2026, 2027. Starting exactly from your last question, Javier. Yes, I think that the differences, the complete differences between this plan and the previous plan is the fact that we decided to invest directly in the development of data centers. To be an energy partner, also an energy partner able to bring a lot of opportunities from PPAs, grid, and district heating, it is normal for a company like us. We are happy to be fully integrated and to give a lot of opportunities to our customers. What is not obvious is to invest directly EUR 1.6 billion to develop, to build the data center.
Because the business of data centers is different compared to the size of data centers. There are the super big data centers, 200 MW or more, probably will be built directly by the over-the-top Amazon, Google, and so on. The typical size that we expect to see in Italy in the next year is between, let's say, 5 and 100, probably. In a co-location business model, the topic, the issue is to have a house for data centers that is super efficient to be able to host the rank of the customer that will arrive. Our business model decided to put EUR 1.6 billion on the table exactly to be able to be the owner of the data center. This is the reason for why there are EUR 400 million of EBITDA on top on our previous guideline.
Because our EUR 400 million completely linked to the CapEx, to EUR 1.6 billion of CapEx. We imagine to have in 2030 already more than EUR 100 million of EBITDA and the curve that grows till EUR 400 million with this CapEx. I think that is very interesting to understand that the opportunities are linked to the graph in which you have seen how many generation plants we have in Lombardy. The opportunities for data centers to be built near, close to our generation plant is not easy, but is absolutely not impossible. There are really a lot of opportunities. The direct connection is the killer application. The real killer application is to be able to reduce the charges for distribution and transmission. We have a lot of waste-to-energy plant in Lombardy. Not only the well-known like Brescia, Milan, but also in Como, Cremona.
We have a lot of other plants in Bergamo. And a lot of thermal plants. The big thermal plant can be able to attract super big data centers. Because if you have a thermal plant with 700 MW-800 MW of power, you can source surely also a data center with 200 MW or more. A waste-to-energy plant can be the super partner for a data center of medium size, 20 MW-30 MW , for example. But big, because in this moment, I remember that in Lombardy, the biggest data center is the data center of a team in Rozzano, near Milan, 30 MW. This is the situation in this moment in Italy. So talking about short term.
Yeah. Let me start from EBITDA. Last year, when we presented the plan here, we clearly stated that we came from a result that was blown by some exceptional situation, like as the hydro volumes and the prices effect. We have calculated those effects into EUR 300 million. You need to consider 2024 with this normalization. Having said that, 2025 has a queue of price effects because the normalization of prices is going to be to lead us at the level between EUR 100 million-EUR 110 million, which is the normalization of the scenario we ever considered. If you make the calculation, we have still EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million in 2026 as a queue of the scenario effect. We did quite a good job in recovery and being at the same level in terms of EBITDA as in the previous plan.
Going forward, we start to have the impact of the data center opportunities. Again, which we have considered, I dare say, as it is very usual for A2A in a very prudent approach. You have seen it. The chance could be really huge. We keep the foot in the ground step by step, considering only a few opportunities on which leverage our growth in the midterm. In terms of EBITDA, we have a couple of things which lower a little bit the level compared to the previous one, which is the calculation of the allocation of the prices for the acquisition of the network from Enel. As you know, it is an accounting procedure we need to follow for the purchase price allocation. This will account EUR 20 million in terms of depreciation and amortization starting from the end of this year and 2026 onwards.
And we have changed a little bit the mix of our CapEx. You have seen we have increased the CapEx plan in electrical distribution with almost EUR 800 million of higher CapEx. This leaves us from the calculation with higher depreciation compared to last year. These are the three aspects: energy, the queue of the energy scenario, and the depreciation and amortization.
Talking about a bigger construction site, what will draw the differences in the next year is Monfalcone. Monfalcone, the first parallel, so the first connection with the grid will arrive in October 2026. We estimate to have the operational activities as of EBITDA that is EUR 10 million every month since January 2027. The second is more or less in the middle of 2028, the new waste-to-energy plant in Corteolona. Of course, there are a lot of other CapEx investments, but these two elements altogether are about EUR 200 million.
This is the reason why from 2028, you see the full potential of these two plants and EBITDA, but come back to grow quickly. I think that what is key to understand, but I am sure that is clear for you, is that the scenario effect was crucial in the last year. We were able to offset most of the scenario effect due to the CapEx that we did in the last year.
Okay. Let's start. Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler.
Emanuele Oggioni, Kepler Cheuvreux. Thank you for the presentation. The first question is on the revenue model on data centers. You mentioned before there is more than EUR 100 million of EBITDA contribution in 2030 and EUR 400 million in 2035. What could be the revenue model and the breakdown between generation, district heating, networks, and also other fee or services related to the direct connection to your plants? This is the first question. The second is on the RAB. You increased the—no, sorry. The second question is on renewables. Basically, you cut by EUR 1 billion the CapEx plan compared with the previous one, EUR 3.7 billion from EUR 4.7 billion for an additional capacity of 1 GW additional capacity in 2030.
I think this could be one of the reasons also the some postponement or, as I said before, the delay of the EBITDA from 2027 to 2028. What is the visibility on this due to the fact that the track record in Italy, not up to A2A, but is A2A, but up to the system overall, is not excellent. In Italy, every year we experience delays. We suffer delays in the permitting process, etc. The third question is on RAB. Sorry. For the Generation business, the CapEx related to the CapEx, the additional question was also if you have considered or to what extent you have considered or probably not, based on your slides, the possible extension, renewal, or the regulatory concession. What this issue or driver could be further upside probably on the plan.
Back to the RAB, the RAB was increased, if I'm correct, from EUR 3.4 billion to EUR 4 billion in 2035. In this case, to what extent the electricity distribution concession or renewal extension from 10 up to 20 years, etc., has been already considered or not, or would be an additional incremental CapEx and development? Thank you.
Okay, Emanuele. Starting from generation, because it's easier to consider that in this presentation, we decided not to recall all what we have in the plan. The hydro is not in the presentation, but is in the plan. That means that the EUR 4.7 billion of CapEx presented in Lifeyards plan included EUR 1 billion for hydro. The total CapEx for Solar and Wind remained the same, EUR 3.7 billion. EUR 1 billion is inside the plan exactly for the extension of the concession. We are absolutely confident on the extension of the concession. This is the reason for why we decided not to focus during the presentation on this topic, but exactly in these weeks, it's particularly delicate. We want to close, the numbers are inside the plan. We imagine to be able to go absolutely in continuity.
The revenue model, as we said, the revenue model included our natural activities in supply distribution, district heating inside our businesses. Probably there are some upside because in this moment, we imagine that due to the increasing electrical demand, the price of energy will remain more or less at the actual level. Probably being in Lombardy and due, for example, to the opportunity to develop district heating or activity in water management that can be very interesting with data center, our historical activity can grow. The EUR 400 million are location of data center. The business model, these EUR 400 million are completely out of our classical business line. CapEx and location of space in data center. On the grid, Luca, RAB, do you want to?
I did not get the question on the RAB if you can repeat it for a while.
It was about the extension to the grid distribution.
Okay. Distribution. Yeah. We are waiting for the decree.
We are waiting for ARERA, for the new ARERA.
So when will be official?
This depends on.
The 20, etc.
Emanuele.
CapEx or not is already included in the?
No, no. The CapEx are absolutely included because in this moment, our investment in the grid is more or less triple than the average national level. Surely A2A is not to put the other on the table. To know when we start, the problem is that there is an activity from ARERA. In this moment, we are waiting for the new board of ARERA. When we'll arrive, I think that quickly the situation will be closed. 20 years is what we expected like extension, 30, 50.
We haven't included any installed payments upfront for the renewal or the concession. Also take into consideration that there is a discussion in place if this amount of money should be paid or not, considering the bill of the customer. Anyway, it does not change the picture.
Roberto Letizia from Equita.
Thanks a lot for the presentation and taking my question. Of course, I need to remain on the data center because it is the most interesting part. Just wondering, you are including the EUR 400 million as the return on the investment. Is there the whole upside of serving the energy, providing the heating, or is that included within the EUR 400 million? If it is so, how much of that EUR 400 million would be purely the return on direct investment rather than service? Maybe 30% is direct investment, 70% is servicing for heating and so on.
Just a clarification, is that referring to the baseline scenario and not to the full upside potential? Just to clarify that. I am wondering if in that EUR 400 million, there is any inclusion of connection fees or the connection fees would potentially come on top of that because that changes the overall return assumption. I would like to recall Javier's question on the 2035 because actually the old target was EUR 3.3 billion. If I add up the EUR 400 million, I would be on EUR 3.7 billion, but the target is EUR 3.6 billion. Basically, there is a difference of EUR 100 million. Is that because part of the data center was already included in the old plan for the renewables contribution, for example? I am just wondering if part of that was already in the old targets.
If you can share a little bit, one piece of your assumption which has to do with the CCGT. A lot of the energy is going to probably be provided by CCGT. I guess you're assuming an improvement of the underlying spark spread, which are today negative. Can you share with us just how much improvement in spark spread feeds into the assumption of the data center contribution? One final one. If you can highlight again the source of the significant client addition through the plan. As the market conditions are changing significantly and you several times reported higher competition, shrinking margins, and so on, but you're still sticking to the significant growth in market share on the client. Maybe we can touch base a little bit on that topic. Thanks a lot.
Okay. Grazie, Alberto. Starting once again from data center. The EUR 4 million of EBITDA is totally linked to the direct investment in data center. It is completely out of every EBITDA that arrives from connection, district heating, generation, supply, and so on, which are included inside the other businesses. The EUR 1.6 billion is included in the EUR 23 billion. This is the main reason for why we shift from EUR 22 billion to EUR 23 billion of CapEx. There are EUR 1.6 billion of CapEx more than the last plan, EUR 400 million of EBITDA in 2035 more. It is correct. The sum is EUR 3.7 billion. There is a problem of approximation because the last was a little bit less than EUR 3.3 billion. This is a little bit more than EUR 3.6 bilion. Overall, this is the target. What is interesting, and I understand your question, your doubt, is that we have not changed our target in, for example, grid connection, totally energy supply B2B.
Yes, there is a growth, but not so huge. Or margin in Generation, CCGT, spark spread, for example. Also, if you imagine that the load factor of CCGTs will change totally because to be able to source the data center, probably we need to go from 20% to 50%, more or less. It is clear that there are some upside inside this business. We believe in this moment that it is not bad to remain conservative in the evaluation of our structural business, considering that we are facing the new business of development and location of data center in which our target is material, EUR 400 million is material. We want to face this plan approaching the data center 360 from all the perspective.
When joking, I said I don't want to go to do the DJ to the party is because if I arrive, simply plug the energy and all the business will be done by the developers. I think that I am not doing my work so well. I think that there are opportunities, in particular opportunities, because there are places near our plants that can be super interesting for the development of this data center. Imagine to do some example to stay near Sila in Milan, near the waste-to-energy plant in Brescia, near Cassano. Cassano is 30 km-40 km from Milan. All situation in which you can have huge direct generation with redundancy.
In Cassano, for example, in this moment, we have two plants because we have the old CCGTs and the new pickers, 108 MW installed two years ago that are able to give two direct sources of energy redundancy completely deconnected from the network, the grid, so without pay charges. I think that this activity can be really effective. Surely I think that there are upside inside our historical businesses for the development. For example, one single example, very easy, there is not upside in development of district heating in Milan linked to the heat recovery that can arrive from the district heating. Only this example you can understand.
This is very zoned for why in the closing remarks, I said, "Okay, there are other EUR 300 million of EBITDA linked to potential upside in which our bottleneck can be the financial discipline and in which it is possible also to find partners to be able to develop more." We see. On spark spread.
Yeah, the spark spread, as Renato said, the assumptions are very current with the previous scenario. We have not considered an upside in the spark spread coming from the development of the new opportunities of the data center platform. Maybe in a conservative way because it is too early to understand the concrete effect of this kind of opportunity on the prices and the level of the demand.
We are quite sure that they could potentially increase both the volumes and the prices if the situation, as it seems to be, considering the request to Terna for the connection seems to lead to a really potential new opportunity. We have considered in the plan only what we are doing with our projects. Also, the direct investments are based on few opportunities we have already identified. We are already under discussion with the developer in the length we can have available for the connection to the grid or not to the grid, directly to our plants and to have the opportunity to exploit directly, extracting the most of the marginality we can. Again, it is, let's say, few projects, very concrete. As we presented last year, a concrete approach with the Life yards. Nowadays, our approach is ready to power in a concrete way.
Talking about the customer base, you have to consider two elements. It is sure that there is a high competitive market. You have seen our growing in electricity customers, 61% between 2020 and today. We are very focused in premium acquisition. We are working to avoid the risk to do, let's say, the washing machine with the customer without value. The problem is to decide clearly which are the channel and the typology of customers that are interesting. In this case, also due to the fact that we have a customer base also in this region with a market share very interesting and very strong with very low churn, we imagine to be able to grow, reaching a target that is big, but it is not monster because in this moment, we are at 3.6 million of customers.
We imagine to arrive in 10 years into 5 million. You can understand that the growth that we imagine in the next year is not the same that we have seen in 60%, 12% year by year in the last five years. Exactly because there is more competition and because the market is this one. It is not a market that grows. There are some players surely aggressive. We optimized our acquisition strategy, covering all segments and with a super concentration electricity market that is growing very well. Also because I think that customer can understand the differences between companies that really produce energy and that only trade energy. For example, our PPA Mass Market, when we do offer, is growing. It is more than 100,000 customers.
Ten years contract that is very interesting for us also because it's able to hedge with this customer base retail, our renewable production. It is interesting because the price that we reduced exactly in the last weeks, because there is a scenario in which it's possible to reduce this price, arrived to EUR 105 for megawatt hours. It is super interesting, fixed for ten years. It is super competitive. It is very difficult for a company that trades energy to be able to propose on the market these kinds of products. I think that our capacity to compete is huge on the electrical market, less in the gas. This is the reason why our strategy is working to change completely the market share between the two customers.
Let's take one more question from the floor, then we move to the line and then back to the floor. Okay. Francesco Sala from Banca Akros.
Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the hedging activity for 2026. If you can share with us an update on quantity and prices. The second one is if you can give us a sense of the efficiency of new CCGT plants compared to the so-called traditional ones. Finally, what are your assumptions on electricity prices during the planned horizon and WACCs for the regulated businesses and CPI? Thank you.
The hedging level now we have reached, we are not at the end of the year yet. So 60% of the fixed price at EUR 111. This is in line with our expectation and in line with the price of our scenario. As I said, the scenario considers a price of the energy in between EUR 105-EUR 108. This is absolutely current. Last year, it was above EUR 120.
About the efficiency of CCGTs, I'll tell you a story. When we decided to revamp Monfalcone, Monfalcone was a coal plant. A coal plant has an efficiency of 30%, but consider that an old CCGT plant, for example, our plant on the River Mincio, is less than 50%. When we did a beauty contest to buy the machine for Monfalcone, there was a tender between the three typical players, Siemens, GE, and Ansaldo Energia. One of the most important elements during the tender was the efficiency. The difference was our plant in, we closed the agreement with Siemens at the end, 63% of efficiency. The other player was 62.0%. The difference is 0.1, 0.2 is the difference to be called by Terna or not to be called.
Because when Terna asks for energy, the elements to call the plants, the generation plants, are linked to the CO2 production, let's say. It is super important to be efficient, not only because you are more sustainable, the price of energy is lower, but because the plants work more. In this moment, the difference is incredible. The old fleet that we have in Italy has an efficiency less than 50%, between 40%-50%, depends on the plant. The new fleet that is under construction from HOA [AD Zone NL8P] has more or less an efficiency between 62%-63%. This is the situation. That is super good news for Italy because the two models that you can have in this moment to close the gap between renewable and consumption are nuclear or CCGTs. In this moment, difficult to have another way.
I think that it's difficult to see nuclear in Italy in the next years, you can imagine. In Italy, we have a fleet of CCGTs super performant, in particular for the CapEx that we did in the last year. It was done with investment to avoid the risk of blackout, to make our grid and our network resilient. Now it is able to source the data center because the data center surely grows with the demand, but not double the demand. There is a growth that is completely absolutely possible to be managed with the actual fleet that we have. Also because during this year, the renewable will grow because the target is 63% in 2030. I think that is key to be reached.
The mix between renewable, battery storage, you have seen EUR 30-EUR 35 for time shift is super low, guys, because when we have seen the base price for the tenders of MACSE, that was EUR 37 for megawatt and was assigned to 13. The difference in time shift is between EUR 60 for megawatt hours and 30. These are the differences between having renewable that can be competitive all the day or not. I think that the situation in which in Italy we have renewable that works well, battery storage, low price, and CCGTs, high efficiency, can work. When in the future carbon capture and storage will arrive, we'll see. Another good news maybe. Now it is absolutely enough to face the situation today.
To be more precise, Francesco, I was referring, of course, to 2026 with the edging of 60. 20 25, it is nowadays more than 80. Regarding the CPI index, it is 1.8.
The price of energy, we imagine that we remain stable around EUR 110 per megawatt hour. EUR 100-EUR 110, but the situation in this one with a little bit of volatility, but now the volatility is very low, very low compared with the other period of investor is very high, but compared with the last years, it is very low. All the scenarios say that due to the demand and to the fact that in Italy, there is no elasticity. No, sorry, there is a lot of elasticity because we are short of generation. The situation is that the price, the poor price, will remain more or less where it is today.
Now let's move to those guys connected to the line, please.
The next question is from Sarah Lester, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I hope you can hear me okay. I'm sorry to focus on the data center angle, but I do just want to unpack this a little bit more, please, to be totally clear. Firstly, basically, if we look at the 2028 to 2035 EBITDA guidance given today, that does include some data center uplift. I just think it would be very helpful to understand just how resilient that guidance is to a negative change in the pace of the data center build-out. Of course, A2A's business mix is very robust, and you mentioned many tools in the toolbox. I presume therefore that it does offer very good optionality for other growth opportunities. Just wanting to really clarify the resilience of your guide, please, to a downside data center case.
And then on the upside case, you mentioned the full potential of data centers is not included in the plan, that the opportunity could be much larger. I think this is a really critical point. To clarify, please, is it fair to conclude from everything you've said so far that there could be meaningful upside in a variety of your classical businesses like Generation, grid, district heating, and water that goes above and beyond today's plan? Thank you.
Okay. If you look at 2028-2035, there is a growth that is included in our historical plan. It's the same of Lifey ard plans because there are some few moving parts. For example, a little reduction in mobility, a little reduction in biogas or in some other business. All the CapEx was recovered in the growth of power grid.
Consider that we are in a situation in which power grid is able to absorb, let's say, an infinite quantity of CapEx. All the CapEx that A2A can put on the table are able to be absorbed by the power grid. To understand what happened in our company, when we arrive in June, we do a mid-review of the CapEx. I call all my guys. I say, "Okay, are you able to do all the CapEx? If there are some CapEx, not sure, to the power grid." Because power grid does not need permitting, works in its assets, and is able to deliver every quantity of. Despite the EUR 400 million and EUR 1.6 billion of the data center, I think that our plan is super solid because there is a mix of business that is surely able to deliver the numbers that we have seen.
Coming back to the data center, first of all, I think that surely in Italy will arrive data center. The situation in this moment of the data center is that there are 10,000 data centers in the world, 5,000 in the U.S., only 2,000 in Europe, only 168 in Italy. Italy is the 13th country in the world for data centers installed. We need surely a lot of data centers simply to arrive to the benchmark. Consider that there is an issue of strategical autonomy of Europe on some topic like intelligence, artificial intelligence. We need to have in some countries surely data centers. Milan in this moment is considered with Madrid and Zurich, the three places, the three cities in Europe that in the next years will grow more in data center.
Also because in this moment, compared with the target, with the benchmark, Milan is much lower. I said that in Milan, in this moment, the only data center of medium size is from Telecom and is 30 MW near Milan. Surely we have to work a lot. I think that it's impossible that in next years we don't see new data centers. The topic is A2A will be able to attract and to develop data center or not. The killer application is the fact that the data center with A2A inside is able to connect it to our generation plant, is able to be super competitive against the other on the cost of energy. That is 65% of the total OpEx of the data center. I think that is possible.
The business model is EUR 1.6 billion of CapEx allocated to build data centers, of course with the partner able to do. And EUR 400 million of location, so of EBITDA that arrives from revenues from location. I imagine that the plan can be solid. Of course, if no one data center will arrive in Italy, compared with this industrial plan, can be an outside. From the other side, I think that there are a lot of upside, exactly because the effect of HOA-like energy partner surely will arrive because in a world in which electrical consumption will grow, the national law and the regional law in the next months will say that it's key to do good water management, to recover it in the district heating, to be able to be well connected to the network, to use brownfield areas.
I think that opens the door to opportunities, incredible opportunities for a company like A2A in Lombardy. The upside is surely inside our historical business plan, in which, frankly speaking, we did not change our historical target. There is space to grow in the other business.
Yeah. If I can add, you have seen the list of potential projects we have and we have not considered in the CapEx plan. It is clearly listed. Of course, this helps us in the case we could have a downsize in any situation to readjust the CapEx plan with the list we have aside on which we are continuing to work internally. It is not a list of dreams. It is a real list of projects on which we are going to work every day. It is easy to switch one project with another in the case one project is not going at the end or could be finalized in the way we want.
We were able in the last five years to do EUR 10 billion of CapEx between organic and inorganic and to move the EBITDA from EUR 1.2 billion to EUR 2.2 billion. I think that the proof that we are able to fix targets, real targets, and also to surpass it is in our history.
From a financial point of view, if I can add, it is very clear how strong the situation is considering the cash generation coming from our projects. This is the answer to be able to maintain a certain speed without slowing down and to have the opportunity to continue to grow organically and to look at opportunities because we have the solidity of a leverage ratio very affordable, a nice FFO to net debt. Really in the position to look at the upside potential in a very positive way.
Now back to the floor, Davide Candela from Intesa.
Thank you, Marco. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. First one, again, I won't be redundant on data centers, a clarification. Just thinking how you want to feed this data center because I was reading through your numbers and it looked like the CCGTs by 2035, they have load factors that are below 20%. It is about that you see the change in a mix. The CCGTs would be just for peaker solutions or not, or because you are not including, as you said, those potential to be just a supplier. This is key to me to see the value of the CCGT fleet you have and how this value is maintained in future or not. Second question also on energy supply. This is a high-level question, just a share of your view about the competition.
My question is, do you see a scenario in which you see a further increase in competition when you are required to put retention costs as you did in the past to maintain those high-value customers you are seeing today? Everybody is focusing on their value-added customer base. I was wondering if you see a scenario like that or not. Final question about your sites and opportunities in Europe, how much you are including in the plan in terms of CapEx or if you are not, and if you can deepen more on your strategic approach in that. Thank you.
Okay. Thanks for your question. I think that coming back to CCGTs and data center, probably I can use an example that can be interesting for you. We received this year or last year, I do not remember, the authorization for a new CCGT's high efficiency in Cassano. In this moment, we have authorization to build a new CCGT plant, 63% of efficiency in Cassano d'Adda. If you look on web, you can find a lot of discussion about the opportunity to build a pipeline to bring not only electricity but also heat recovery from that plant and Milano district heating.
To build the CCGTs, we are waiting for the tenders for Capacity Market, probably in February we see. If we'll arrive and we'll arrive, probably we are almost sure that we'll arrive with tenders for Capacity Market, and we will do the application, of course, to be able to build the new CCGTs, the demand would be, "Okay, but we'll build also the infrastructure to bring 1 TWh of heat recovery to Milan for district heating or not?" This depends simply from the hypothesis that a part of the plant will work base load or not. Because, of course, if the work is only like peaker, it's impossible to imagine that it's able to source a district heating. Imagine now to build near Cassano a data center, a big data center, 200 MW.
That means CCGTs that work base load for a part of the capacity probably enable the opportunity to recover heat from the data center and from the plant. It can be a super opportunity for Milan because we have to face the decarbonization of Milan, and it is not easy to face the decarbonization with heat pumps in the single building. It is interesting to understand how a data center, a CCGT, can have a mutualistic symbiosis because a data center needs base load energy, and CCGT is perfect to work base load. I think that the opportunity in this moment to have space in CCGTs generation is a super news to be able to develop really data center in Lombardy and in Italy. Talking about Europe, the CapEx are included. Consider that we have in this moment EUR 23 billion for [DAN] because it is the plan 2024-2035.
Four under construction, eight more or less to assign. We have authorization, we can start, but we can also change. Seven to find. In this moment, the opportunity from Europe is that if there are opportunities in which we see a time to market better and a better return, we can decide to change some projects that we have in Italy with projects in other countries. The goal is from one side to become a European company. Frankly speaking, I think that is very important for all the big companies in Europe to have the mind of a European company. From the other side, to reduce the risk because if you are able to do cherry picking in other countries in business that we know very well, in which our leadership is known, in which there are opportunities of return better, why not?
This is the strategy. Of course, probably it is easier to arrive with the first move in organic, but it is typical. If you go in Calabria, typically we start from an inorganic move. You can consider this strategy once again like a way to de-risk the plan, the risk in terms to be able surely to do, to put on the table really the EUR 23 billion of CapEx. On the supply retention, we paid very attention because during the foolish situation that we had during the war, you remember we had some customer totally out of position with price EUR 300 for megawatt hour, and we decided to put on the table how many money? EUR 100 million, EUR 100 million. The last EUR 20 million in this year.
Exactly, not to penalize our customer because we believe a lot in the strong relation between HOA and our customer. I think that is also customer B2B. In this moment, there are no needs of cost of retention. The need is to be able to find a customer of quality. I understand that you say, "Okay, but all the players want quality customer, of course." Probably the difference is that once again, our position in the north of Italy is not bad too. The other element that I think is very important is that our awareness in this moment is 60%-65%. Our market share is less than 10, is 7-8. The huge differences between market share and awareness is the funnel that helps us to grow. Not to arrive to 20 million of customer, but to 5, yes.
Thank you, everyone. We are out of time. If you have a need for any type of follow-up, please contact the IR department. Thank you, Renato. Thank you, Luca, for presenting.
Thank you all.
Thank you, everyone.