Hello, welcome to the A2A full year 2025 results presentation. Please note, this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. I will now turn you over to your host, Marco Porro, Head of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for full year 2025 performance presentation. Today, as speakers, we have Renato Mazzoncini, our CEO, and Luca Moroni, our CFO. I leave immediately the floor to Renato for the first part of the presentation, and then he will pass to Luca. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Marco, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We report another year of strong performance and value creation. The key message that we wish to share today is that we are on track, on trend, and on target for shareholder returns. Let's start from the slides that you can see. Slide number two highlights. Full year 2025 results once again demonstrate our strong execution across all our strategic priorities, reinforcing A2A's positioning for sustainable growth and shareholder remuneration. From an industrial standpoint, in 2025, we delivered on a series of key new milestone, fully aligned with our long-term infrastructure investment plan.
Our electricity RAB reached EUR 1.7 billion, marking a +52% annual increase, gross of perimeter effect and a double-digit organic growth, our CapEx, our investment. These results was driven by disciplined CapEx deployment and the successful integration of newly acquired asset, Duereti, you know. We installed 76 megawatts of new renewable capacity, including the first phase of Santo Stefano in the northern part of Italy, near Trieste. At the same time, the group is well-positioned to exploit the accelerating electrification trend. We completed a major asset rotation from gas and electricity networks focusing on the backbone of the energy transition. Our supply business unit increased electricity volumes sold by 12%, confirming our ability to capture demand and to serve customers across different segments. We have positioned ourselves as an early mover along the data center megatrends in Italy.
You remember we presented in our industrial plan in November. We launched our data center platform to deliver a fully integrated offering complementing power supply with land availability, fast grid connection, that is a very killer application, energy efficient buildings, heat recovery and water management. Heat recovery with district heating, you know. Through this platform, A2A positions itself as a one-stop shop for data centers energy related needs. Lastly, our cash conversion rate reached 65%, allowing us to fully fund our investments and dividends, and to improve our leverage ratio at 2.4. Adjusted earnings per share reached EUR 0.22, fully aligned with our guidance, allowing us to safely fulfill the commitment to a 4% year-on-year dividend per share growth. Slide number 3, in which you can see all our numbers.
The consolidation of the new company, Duereti, and the increase in volumes sold in the electricity sector, you remember 12% more, led to an increase in adjusted revenues of more or less 9%, EUR 14 billion. The adjusted EBITDA, EUR 2,243 million, decreased by 4% in 2025, but only for the hydro production. If normalized by previous year hydroelectric production, which was 1.2 terawatt-hours above the five years average, the EBITDA grew by 4%, confirming the resilience of our business model. The same consideration about adjusted group net profit that was EUR 686 million.
Net of hydroelectric production normalization compared to 2024 is the same level. Our net financial position was below EUR 5.5 billion, thanks to an operating cash flow that guaranteed coverage and as I said, of CapEx and dividends, as well as cash in from asset disposal. The leverage ratio was equal to 2.4 times with a decrease compared to 2024. As slide number four, you can see our CapEx. The capital deployment is the clearest evidence of our sound execution and our long-term strategic vision. With almost EUR 1.7 billion in CapEx, 11% higher than 2024, of which EUR 1 billion related to development project.
This project have enabled us to improve the efficiency of power distribution network, accelerate our decarbonization path towards renewable energy, enhance the flexibility of generation plans, and strengthen our circular economy business. Consider that in particular in circular economy, imagine the waste-to-energy plant, the authorization are not easy to be received. That way, in this moment is the only company that year by year have new plants under construction. More than 30% of our development in the investments were allocated to electricity grid. We are fully committed in distribution. A stable regulated business which allow us to capture the accelerating electrification trend across Italy. We are expanding our renewable plant portfolio in a consistent and balanced approach.
Our diversified generation mix, combining renewable with flex technologies, allow us to support the stability of the system. Key project such as Corteolona Waste-to-Energy plant in province of Pavia, for example, which will treat 240,000 tons of waste per year as well on track. Is very important that we are growing, maintaining, hedging between collection and treatment. For example, we grow in collection in Piemonte with a new very important contract in province of Cuneo, in Valle d'Aosta, Liguria. From the other side, we are growing in treatment with the new plants, the new waste-to-energy plant in Verona, in Corteolona, in Trezzo d'Adda, Crotone and so on.
To wrap up our disciplined approach to CapEx underpins a resilient growth today and tangible returns, tomorrow. Speaking of results, let me now hand over to our CFO, Luca, who will illustrate our financial performance in 2025 more in detail. Please, Luca.
Thank you, Renato, and good afternoon to everybody. Let's start to examine our EBITDA performance in detail. We can start from slide 5. You can appreciate from the graph that all the businesses perform very well, but the generation and trading need to be considered in the view of the normalization of the Hydro. Indeed, Hydro normalization, the exit from the Safeguard segment, and the lower hedging prices were largely offset by very positive events, such as the growing of the performance of electricity network, thanks to the consolidation of Duereti, which proved even more profitable than expected. A greater contribution from the capacity market, solid retail margins, and higher revenues from waste-to-energy plants. Generation and trading.
Generation and trading, as usual, is characterized by well-diversified technology mix, which is the cornerstone of the business. EBITDA was EUR 728 million, with a decrease of 26% compared last year. Of course, we need to take into consideration the Hydro effect. The normalization of the Hydro effect and some fewer opportunities from the energy commodity as hedging and trading has been partially offset by higher contribution of thermoelectric production and an increase of the premium awarded in the capacity market. Renewable production decreased by 23% as a consequence of the lower volume in hydro, and thermal production increased by 11%. Supply business. 2025 saw another year of sound performance supply business.
EBITDA stood at EUR 464 million, with an increase of EUR 2 million compared last year. Here, the exit from Safeguard business was offset by the commercial development of the free electricity market, both in the mass market and in business segments. The free electricity market customer base grew by 3% compared to 2024, despite the competitive market, the competitive environment. Along with this growth, in the electricity customer base, we have achieved a remarkable 12% increase in electricity volume sold, up to 27.5 terawatt-hours, as Renato already said. Let's move to page eight, Circular Economy. I would particularly like to highlight the strong performance of our circular economy business.
Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 595 million, with a growth of 2%, EUR 13 million. We delivered a robust result in three key areas, treatment, integrated water cycle, and district heating. Higher treatment prices fully offset lower margin from the Acerra plant's new contract after the tender, while water cycle benefited from a higher allowed return. District heating showed sound results supported by higher energy prices, volume sold, and white certificates margins. The new Milan collection tender saw reduced margins due to our highly competitive bid against that one international player, Urbaser. We maintain strong EBITDA, confirming the resilience of the business, even considering the newly awarded tenders in some territories in the north of Italy.
All key industrial indicators are positive, such as electricity sold, waste-to-energy and other plant, +4%, waste disposal for energy recovery, +6%, and heat sold, +2%. Smart Infrastructure, which marked a step change in scale and profitability. The adjusted EBITDA of the business unit was EUR 580 million, with an increase of outstanding 37%. Thanks to the sound performance of fully regulated activities. Our electricity network delivered outstanding growth, EUR 137 million, driven by the consolidation of Duereti for EUR 93 million. The organic growth in RAB with an increase in electricity allowed revenues of the historical perimeter, EUR 25 million. Higher revenues for connection and other services for EUR 10 million.
The increase in electricity PODs, the point of deliveries, up 65% year-on-year demonstrate how our grid are becoming an enabling platform for electrification and new consumption patterns. Electricity distribution RAB increased by 52% and the power network capacity by 71%. In gas network, we completed the asset rotation, strengthening our strategic focus on electricity distribution. Gas distribution RAB decreased by 23%. Now, analyzing the profit and loss starting from adjusted EBITDA equal to EUR 2,243 million. We recorded EUR 964 million D&A, plus 66 million compared to 25, with an increase mainly due to CapEx deployed and completion of Duereti purchase price allocation process for EUR 17 million. Net financial expenses at EUR 169 million, of which those relating to pure financial management were EUR 157 million.
The remaining part being financial accounting efforts compared to the 116 million of the last year. Adjusted taxes amounted to EUR 306 million, a decrease of 46 compared to last year, with a tax rate of 29.8%. Last year, 29.4%. Adjusted net profit at 686 million, with a decrease of 16% compared to 2024. Normalized by other effects, the decrease was only 1%. This is the adjusted group net profit. The reported group net profit is EUR 750 million. In 2025, we achieve a robust double-digit return on investment, 10%, and return on equity, 12%. Cash flow, page eleven. We accounted a net positive change in net financial position of EUR 361 million.
The net financial position at the end of the year was EUR 5.474 billion, reflecting an improved leverage ratio to 2.4x compared to 0.5x at the end of last year. Operating cash flow, EUR 2 billion. Fully financed CapEx for EUR 1 billion. Dividends, EUR 1.7 billion. Dividend distribution, EUR 300 million. We achieved a robust cash conversion rate at 65%, reflecting the ability of the company to optimize financial resources to support the growth. Some details. Network capital of EUR 311 million was primarily driven by the reduction of trade receivable and, say, a partial settlement of the safeguard portfolio. Payment of taxes for EUR 400 million and net financial expenses, EUR 116 million.
The result, the operating cash flow stands at EUR 2 billion after the 1.7 of CapEx and dividend for EUR 300 million. The hybrid bond coupon payment of forty-eight million. The net free cash flow was four million. We have the change in perimeter, which is due mainly to the disposal of part of the gas network to Ascopiave for EUR 430 million, partially offset by EUR 58 million related to some deals in M&A. Finally, the fifteen million spent to our share buyback give to the total change of EUR 361 million. Thank you very much. Now I will hand back to Renato for the final part of the presentation.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Luca. Page 12 to look at our sustainable dividend growth. The dividend growth is confirmed. We are going to propose to our assembly an increase of a dividend per share by 4% year on year, so arriving to EUR 0.104 in line with our dividend policy. This dividend growth is supported by strong cash flow visibility and disciplined capital allocation. 45% payout ratio is approved, let's say. Page 13, our guidance is absolutely confirmed. We confirm our 2026 guidance with adjusted EBITDA between EUR 2.21 billion and EUR 2.25 billion. The adjusted net profit between EUR 630 million and EUR 660 million, reflecting our robustness and visibility on our business mix.
To close, at slide number 14, our well-diversified business model is really unique and delivers sustainable growth, and attractive returns over the long term, allowing us to transform challenges into opportunities. We operate at the intersection of the energy transition and the circular economy, you know, our two pillars, benefiting from both natural hedge activities and fully regulated business, supported by a consistent CapEx plan. Year by year, our CapEx plan grow. Our generation portfolio is diversified, allowing us to leverage different technology. Really, I think that today, in Italy is the only company that has all the generation plants from thermal, hydro, wind, sun and waste-to-energy plant.
This integration is a super opportunity to optimize energy management to capture market opportunities in different scenarios. Integration across generation plants and different customer segments enable natural hedging, and reduce our risk profile and support the cash flow generation. In particular, our fully regulated businesses remain a core strategic pillar backed by a stable long-term regulatory framework. Early movers in electrification and data center, and we are working a lot, we can leverage our energy assets to unlock value from these mega trends, enhancing growth and resilience.
Together, these elements guide a balanced capital allocation that sustains cash flow generation growth and shareholder remuneration. Really close, as I close, and as I said in my introduction, our 25 results confirm that we are on track with our long-term strategic plan, on trend with our leadership in electrification, renewables and circular economy, and on target for the returns that we ensure for our shareholders. Thanks a lot for your attention, and now we'll be happy to open the Q&A session.
Thank you very much. This is a reminder. If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The first question comes from the line of Roberto Letizia of Equita.
Yes. Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question. I hope you can hear me well. My first question is about the current market situation with regards to energy prices and power price change. Just wondering, first of all, if you can highlight any risk, if any, or not, of course, on the gas procurement for your deliveries through this year, meaning if you have any direct LNG imports, which is subject to curtailment in the coming months. Eventually, if you are in any case exposed to any possible force majeure events from your reseller, naming Eni or other majors or Edison or Gas Plus or the other providers that currently gives you gas for your internal use.
If you can address these topics if any risk currently or in the short term that you envisage for your procurement and deliveries. As a subsequent question, if you can highlight to us what is the current level of open positions through to 2026 and 2027 in order for you to get any benefit from the most recent increase in the power price. What is the current situation for the hydro productions in the first months of the year and in terms of reservoir for the rest of the year?
A comment, if you can, on your view about the potential regulatory risk so far, and I mean potential EU interventions in the market, whether it's gonna be taxation or ETS revisions or price caps or whatever we will see in the coming years. If you have any view on what could be the potential regulatory risks. Thanks a lot.
Okay. Roberto, thanks for your question. I start talking about the general situation of the market that of course is critical and is also, but in some years in which every couple of years there is something incredible in this world, let's say. Talking about the risk to remain without gas, in my opinion, is impossible in this moment. So the only problem is the price. But considering the storage that we have in this moment in Italy, that is, as you know, 47%. Considering the temperature that we have in Milano in this moment, you know.
The diversification that we have in Italy in this moment from all the sources, Algeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, LNG and so on, risk of procurement in 2026 and in 2027, in my opinion, is absolutely out of our view. The problem in this moment can be exactly working on the storage because, as you know, we need to maintain a price summer winter aligned to start immediately to fill the storage. In this moment, there is still some areas of spread. You remember last year the government closed the spread with the rules in which companies that started early to fill was paid exactly to close the spread.
I think that we need to wait for 2-3 weeks to have more visibility of what can happen in Iran, because it is difficult in this moment to understand if this conflict can move for month or weeks or days. Then I imagine that our government will use the same instruments that was used in 2022 and in 2025. Talking about us, consider that for 2026 our hedging is at least 70, 72, 73%. Our normal situation in March, in which the only flexibility is not to risk to have over-hedging due to the risk of the hydro production. But what is interesting is that we covered 2026 to a price that is around EUR 110, so it's high.
Over our budgets to understand. In 2027 we have 50% of energy covered with a good price because it's around EUR 100. Once again, aligned with our industrial plan. Of course, the hydro production in this moment, I can say that for January, February and March, we are absolutely aligned with the budget. We started the year with a good level of storage in our dam, in our basin. In this moment, our forecast is to stay at the average level of A2A, so more or less 4 TWh of hydro production.
To close about ETS, probably two years ago there was a declaration of a Ministry of Environment in Germany that said that absolutely Germany don't want to move ETS because ETS is a fundamental instrument for decarbonization. Consider that our government ask to Europe to cancel the ETS because it's a tax. But it's very simple to demonstrate that ETS is not a tax. You know, it is emissions trading system, and the tax is something that a company pay and the public administration receive. The problem is that only in our country, considering the large countries, industrial country, in effect is a tax today. Because as you know, there are more or less EUR 3.5 billion of ETS paid, and only EUR 600 million come back to companies, in particular to energy-intensive companies.
There are EUR 2.9 billion that remain to serve our public debt. This is the reason for why, Italy is in infraction with Europe. What the other countries, in Europe, in particular Germany and France, and Spain says is, "Okay, guys from Italy, before discussing about ETS, it's better that you replace the normal situation of ETS, so a system of trading, of exchange." My personal opinion is that it's absolutely impossible that, ETS, can be canceled in the future because it's really a nonsense. Consider all the companies that for 20 years invested in green economy, exactly to be more competitive against the company that didn't invest. Price cap for gas is out of every kind of discussion, but also our government don't put the price cap, on the table.
Luca, I don't know if you want to integrate something.
No, I think that everything has been said. As you know, we have the chance also to buy some LNG from British Petroleum with a contract signed, will start in 2027. We start also to get some opportunities into the market. As Renato said, the hedging ratio are pretty comfortable both for 2026 and 2027. I think that, of course, we need to monitor what happens on the market with the prices. By now everything is under control. Also take into consideration the financial point of view.
Another element that is important to consider is that if we see a reduction of PUN, the reduction of PUN produce an effect in which the renewables are less competitive and the thermal production more competitive. Consider that today the total energy production with thermal is 115 terawatt-hours in Italy of 311 of total demand. Our forecast is that with a reduction of PUN due to ETS, that is once again an hypothesis, in my opinion, impossible. In this case the production of gas jump to 150-160.
This is the reason for why the effect in the tariff, in the bill for our customers is approximately to zero because, the total ETS amount that, arrive on the bill, is more or less the same EUR 5 billion, under discussion in the reduction of raw material. A2A is a company super strong also in thermal production. Imagine the new plant in Monfalcone. In this case, that is a case that I don't consider. Once again, we have a natural hedging due to the fact that the reduction of production renewable from one side is compensated from the other side from a strong, increase of gas production. Because gas production win against import. This is the message.
Not because there is a reduction in the renewables, but of course, with the marginal price when every time. Because the imports are more expensive than thermal production without ETS.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from the line of Javier Suarez of Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone, and thank you for taking my questions, and thank you for the presentation as well. Two questions on the context and business plan, recently presented business plan, and one on your guidance. On the context, if you can make any comment on recent detailed reports on the local press arguing a potential interest of A2A on ERG. If you can make any comment on that. In general, in case of an extraordinary operation, what kind of assets fits better with your current corporate structure. Any comment on that would be appreciated. Second question is on the data center opportunity that was widely elaborated during back in November.
When do you think that A2A would be in the position to provide with granularity and a whole business plan on the data center opportunity and with financial detail targets and more granularity versus your statement back in November? Any further guidance on the timing for that higher granularity would be appreciated as well. The third question is on the Energy Decree that has increased regional taxation rate up by 200 additional basis points in 2026 and 2027. The fact that you are maintaining your guidance unchanged, is that including any compensation factor that is offsetting this increase in taxation? Is that related to a different pricing for your for wholesale?
Is that related to a higher assumptions? Any light on the reason for maintaining guidance would be appreciated as well. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Javier Suarez. Okay. For the first question, you know the answer because we used a press communiqué. A2A regularly conducts a review on its strategic options consistent with our industrial plan. In this context, discussions with many potential partners are absolutely normal. I think that is my mission, the mission of our management to create value for shareholders. I also think that in Italy, there are too many companies working in the energy business, in particular in generation. The strong liberalization that we had 20 years ago produced a situation that probably is not completely efficient today.
To date, many strategic options are being considered as preliminary and exploratory thought, and no decision has been taken. This is our answer. A2A will keep, of course, the public informed of any possible development in the correct way. For data centers. Data centers is absolutely incredible what happened. You remember we presented our industrial plan the twelfth of November, San Donato. After a couple of weeks, you can't imagine how many players and actors in data center knock at our door to understand what we are able to do for them. In particular, as I said during the presentation, the killer application in this moment is to have a connection in high voltage.
Because today, if you ask Terna, not only in Italy, but in all the other part of the world, to have a connection for, let's say, 200 MW is impossible. It takes 5 years. You know, we are in particular in Lombardy, in a super position in which we have land in some, we have some opportunities and we have a connection in high voltage. You remember during our presentation, we underlined the 3 projects without giving a name. And also today, I can't say exactly which are the projects, but I can say that, for the first 2 projects, in terms of roadmap, we are absolutely on track.
You remember that we imagine to arrive to have a first EBITDA from data center in 2028-2029. We are on track. We are working. The business model can be co-location, or we are also open to in some case in which we have an opportunity to build a larger data center. We can also consider direct relation with other top companies. Please wait for next our communication to have more visibility on a part of a strategic plan that is working well. About the decree.
I would like to start saying that in the decree, in the Energy Decree, some aspect has been discussed. One being the taxation, the European taxation. You know, reading also from the newspaper how the discussion is tough regarding the chance to increase taxes in Italy for corporates and citizens. First of all, we need to wait the translation into law of the decree aspect. In any case, if and when there will be any increase in taxation, we can consider temporarily because by the discussion, it seems it will be affecting 2026 and 2027 and not farther.
For that reason, we can consider if it will come as a non-recurring item, so into the so-called special items. This is the reason why we maintain unchanged the guidance we communicate, also in part, and in particular because the guidance on the net profit is on the adjusted net profit.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from the line of Francesco Sala of Banca Akros. Please go ahead. Unmute your mic.
Good afternoon, thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple. The first one is on the recent spike in electricity prices. I wonder whether you can give us a sensitivity or at least an ordered look on the potential impact on net working capital and provision if there is something you have already tried to estimate. The second question is on hydroelectric generation. I wonder whether you can give us an update on the re-concession renewal, and secondly, whether say the recent events have changed your attitude towards revamping and investments in this segment of your business. Finally, if I may, what are the latest trends you have seen in the supply business?
Thank you.
Okay.
I start with the effects on the net working capital. We will not suffer for any increase or deterioration of the net working capital. We have experience coming from 2022, where we manage properly the net working capital with different opportunities, which are the same in the case, 'cause by now we are experiencing only temporary situation. In the case it will last more than this period of time we have in front of us of 1-2 months, of course we have the chance to move on different opportunities, as I said. These are, of course, temporary effects.
Also, as I said, and I mentioned before, in terms of liquidity, we are currently managing in a very appropriate way with backup lines. After 2022
We increased the backup lines to be well prepared in the case of higher volatility in the market, regarding in particular the marginal cost. At the moment, we are really in a very good situation. Okay, about the hydro concession, the situation is this one. Starting from the procedures concerning our concessions of Resia and Codera-Valle dei Ratti, launched by Regione Lombardia at the end of 2023, so 2.5 years ago, are still pending. Temporary adjudication of the renewed concession is expected at the end of the first half 2026.
I imagine that is difficult for the region to arrive to assign this concession because we put some question in the court about the procedures, and frankly speaking, I think that we are in the right position. From the other side, you know that in this moment talking about the Parliament, the EU all thinks that is not correct to do tenders without reciprocity in Europe. Talking also in Brussels with people that can be interlocutor for us in this topic. Talking about the so-called Quarta Via, the so-called fourth way to assign, the idea is that we have to wait to close the PNRR. That means August twenty-sixth.
After it's possible to open a quick deal with Europe to be able to extract from the Competition Law the hydro concession. To move in a way that is more or less a project finance in which surely an equilibrium between concession fee, CapEx, and current remuneration of our asset will be the final solution. Included, probably you read about this 15% of hydro release. That is a way, let's say, to have on board also all the lobby of Confindustria that in this moment is strong with our government. Consider that in the project finance, the reduction of revenue more produces an effect for the concession fee, not for us.
Because for us, the idea is to have a remuneration of all the CapEx fixed by ARERA. The total amount of revenue that arrives in our company don't change if there is hydro release or not. Surely to have all the lobby that works together, so our energy company, Energieworld company, so Confindustria and the regions will bring it to the result. Talking about the supply business, what I can say is that from one side is super interesting the B2B business, because the B2B in this moment have a churn lower than B2C. That is strange. In the past that was every time the opposite. That way is super strong in this business.
That is also super interesting because B2B means a contract with companies, with industry that can produce space to build PPA. That is the way, you know, to hedge our renewable production. From the other side is also interesting our growth of 3% in the mass market this year, so 2025 on 2024. In the free market, electrical free market, so in this moment we have a reduction in gas. The reduction in gas, let's say, is natural because if we look the PDR, so the number of contract in our distribution asset in Milano, year by year in this moment we have a reduction of 2%. If there is a reduction of the PDR, is normal to have a reduction in the consumption number of customer and so on.
There is space to grow in the electricity free market in our opinion. In our business plan, we have a reduction of marginality of 3% every year, but also this year we haven't seen this reduction. It's strange the situation because for probably five years in which every year we imagine and in our industrial plan there is a reduction here per year of 3%, but till now this reduction of marginality don't arrive. Okay.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from the line of Sarah Lester of MS. Please go ahead. I think, Sarah got disconnected, so we're gonna move on to our next question from Emanuele Oggioni of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go right ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation. My first question is on the cash conversion. It was quite good, 65%, and basically, you fully financed the CapEx and the dividends. My question is on the 2026 outlook on the same, if this could be improved, and what could be the guidance for net debt to EBITDA obviously still considering you confirm the guidance for EBITDA net profit before the energy crisis and before the Energy Decree, the Italian Energy Decree. Also in this case would be a consistent guidance before this temporary or not one-off intervention. This is the first question. The second is on gas procurement.
You mentioned before your contract with BP, but this contract LNG would cover only around 20% of the group's needs. If you can remind the other sources by geography, basically, break down all the sources by geography. The third question is on the price cap. If I remember well, you applied a litigation like other companies in the sector against the previous or now the older price cap put in place in 2023, three years ago, basically, no? Considering that this litigation is still ongoing, what is your opinion?
Probably the government will not adopt another similar measure, considering there is still a litigation ongoing, or at least would be the price cap aligned to the European level, which was more than twice or three times basically compared with Italian level. Finally, you mentioned the hedging, 70-73% of the volumes. I missed if you said or not the price EUR per megawatt hour for 2026. Indeed, a last final question on the market supply. On the market supply, still focusing on the potential new gas and energy crisis in the next few months.
To what extent you are now more protected, so could you protect more your profitability in the market supply business unit compared with the previous crisis? Probably you have already changed the contract, the shipping cost, so in order to minimize the shipping cost, et cetera. If you could provide more color on that. Thank you.
Okay. I will start, Emanuele, with the first and the fourth, your questions. Cash conversion, we presented the business plan, as you remember, with a cash conversion rate in the area of 50%. The year 2025 was quite positive. We managed very well, as I said, net working capital. Also taking into consideration the opportunities we had to lower the trade receivable coming from Safeguard market, and the reimbursement of the Safeguard market of the client, so-called non-disconnectible. After the report we submitted, we got some EUR 60 million from the authority.
Forecast for 2026, we are used to managing the same way with the same proactivity our net working capital, and we maintain the target to achieve a cash conversion rate in line with 50%. As I said, we have different opportunities to manage the net working capital also in trade receivable, in trade receivable but also in the payments, and the contract in particular we have for trading purposes. In 2022, we move some of those to OTC market to take the opportunity to manage also the terms of payments, and so on.
I don't have any, let's say, clue to say now that it could be deteriorated by the current situation. On the other hand, we are really hands-on to fulfill the target and to achieve it. In terms of leverage, again, in the plan was 2.7, not to exceed 2.8, and this remain our target. If we are able to make it better, of course, we can work for it, but 2.7 is pretty in line with the credit metrics target we have also discussed with the rating agencies.
It's interesting your question about the supply because the lesson learned in 2022 was that you can't maintain a fixed price with open quantity. The problem that we had in 2022 was exactly that with the people, companies with fixed price and without a limit on the demand increased the demand a lot, and for us was super critical. You may remember that we lost a lot of money in that situation. Today, frankly speaking, in this situation, for us, there are only opportunities simply because every times in which the price increase, for example, there is a strong reduction of the churn. The churn in this moment is the bigger problem that our company are facing.
We imagine to be able to grow in the supply market in this moment exactly without absolutely any negative effect exactly because we changed all the contracts since 2022 till now, avoiding any risk of quantity that we had in 2022. Frankly speaking, if you remember in 2022 when there was the discussion and some outcry in Europe about price cap, the price cap was fixed so high that it was impossible to imagine to arrive. In this moment, we are very far from what happened in 2022, and the price cap in this moment is not under discussion.
about the possibility for gas procurement in this moment, you know, see, we signed, as Luca said, an agreement to buy 1 billion cubic meters of GNL from US starting from the last quarter 2027. It was a good idea considering that our total needs of gas is 5 billion. That means that 20% for us arrives directly from this new contract. For the rest of 4 billion, in this moment, it's difficult to see a situation in which, in Italy, there is a risk of disruption to remain without gas.
I think that we are in a situation in which we are in a better position against others. It is enough to see the situation of the storage in this moment in Germany, in the north of Europe. There are 18% of storage in Italy, but also in other southern country, we are more or less 50%. That is also linked to the fact that we need less gas for-
Mm-hmm
To climatize the buildings during winter, of course.
Yeah, sorry, I missed to answer your fourth question about the hedging. I repeat it for 2026, we are hedged by 72-73% with an average price of EUR 110, which is quite remarkable. For 2027, we already complete almost 50% with an average near to EUR 100. This is quite satisfactory for us, take into consideration the situation in which we were at the beginning of the year and considering the current situation. We are pretty in a good shape to face 2027 also in term of budget when we approach the time to do it.
Consider that in this moment, the calendar 27 is higher than 100. This morning was 102, 103. If the situation remain this one, we are able, in the next weeks, to arrive to cover our normal 70% to a price, fully aligned with our plan. If we see a reduction, consider the side effect on the thermal production. We face 27 with 50% covered at 100 and the other 50% open. If we see a PUN reduction, that means that there is more space for thermal production against the import. In every case, our natural hedging is strong and able to face all the situation.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from the line of Sarah Lester of MS. Please go ahead.
Hello. Can you hear me this time?
Yeah, we can.
Oh, perfect. Sorry. I do apologize. Not sure what happened. I've just got two very quick questions, please. The first one's on the electricity distribution concession extension. Just given there is this really quite strong political spotlight on customer bills at the moment, I'm wondering if you see that there's potentially a risk that either the timeline gets pushed to the right or delayed or that the fee may not actually end up going on the RAB and remunerated that way. Then just a second clarification, please, on the data center platform in the earlier question. Did I hear correctly that you would also consider partnerships where you would not actually necessarily be building the data center shell yourself? Thank you.
No. For the second, the answer is not. Our strategy is exactly what we explained during the presentation of our industrial plan. In particular, consider that I talked before about the two first project under design and are both direct investment that we want to do. Consider that for us are interesting partnership also with large players more able than us to find the customer to locate the data center. This is interesting for us because there are companies that already has a lot of customer in different data center.
Our goal is to be able to build data center in good position, for example, in Milan, to be clear, with a low cost of energy for connection behind the meter and low PUE for connection with district heating and good water management. More attractive for the same customer that some players already have. Can be a commercial partnership, let's say, but we want to consolidate in our EBITDA all the CapEx that we put on the table. For the concession, sorry, you are talking about the grid concession?
The grid concession.
Okay. The grid concession, the only problem is that it takes some months more than normal, the exchange with our authority ARERA, because you remember probably that it takes 4 months of prorogation on the new board of ARERA. The new board of ARERA was appointed a couple of months ago, and immediately with some problems linked to the Energy Decree and now for the war and so on. To support the government in the grid concession as to arrive. From our point of view, frankly speaking, is not a problem because we have a concession and consider that the new concession will be 20 years longer.
If the starting point as a delay is not frankly speaking a problem. What is interesting talking about power grid is that if you look Duereti, so the piece of the grid that we bought from Enel last year, the performance in terms of EBITDA 25% and total CapEx amount is higher than our business plan. We are super happy because we was able immediately to face a network that we didn't know in a very efficient way. In looking this opportunity, once again, we did a super good deal, increasing our RAB, our CapEx. Of course, linked to the Budget Law 2024 that says that we will have the concession extended.
I don't know, Sarah Lester, if it's clear for you.
Okay. We will take our next question from the line of Alberto De Antonio of BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, and thank you so much for taking my questions. I have a couple of follow-ups. The first one is regarding the Energy Decree and the potential revision of the ETS mechanism. Could you help us to quantify what could be the potential impact in terms of power prices in Italy and also how this will translate to your generation of EBITDA? I guess that more in 2028 once the effects from hedging are lower. This will be the first one. The second one will be related to the Monfalcone plant. Could you give us an update on the current state and when do you expect to commission the new plant? Yeah, that's it from me. Thank you.
Talking about ATS, I can say simply, starting from the fact that I imagine that it's absolutely impossible to have a pool without ATS, so I don't think that the government will arrive to have an approval from EU. You can't simply reduce the cost of ATS, but in this moment, you know, it's more or less EUR 30/MWh from the pool because it's linked to the number of hours in which the pool price is fixed by the gas production. It's super variable linked to what happened, for example, with the hydro production. It's linked to the fact that we'll be able or not to increase the total capacity of renewable aligned with the PNIEC, our national plan.
At this moment, surely it's much lower than 30%, EUR 30. It's early to say if it's 50% of this value or more or less. Surely the impact, I can say that you have seen during the presentation on the 23rd of February of Enel. Enel says EUR 85 for megawatt hours. That is their estimation. Frankly speaking, we didn't do an estimation because we don't believe that it's possible to have this impact. A hypothesis can be that one. Talking about Monfalcone is under construction. Under construction means that the delivery is probably in the first quarter of 2027. More or less 1 year to arrive in commercial operation because the construction will end this year.
You know, there are pre-operation, operation and so on. We expect it to have EBITDA starting from 27.
Okay. Thank you very much. We'll take our next question from the line of Davide Candela of Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my question and for the presentation. I have three, actually. The first one that is on the broader context, you already shared your view about the ETS and, since that gas is fixing the prices in Italy, for example, most of the times, do you see in future if the ETS mechanism won't be canceled from the formation of the final power prices? A scenario where do you see a potential decoupling also of the gas component, so the renewable fixing price and on the other hand, gas? Just wondering because at the end of the day, the gas is, as you said, one-third of the entire demand in Italy, but actually is fixing the price for most of the production.
Just a question and if it is viable for you even in the longer term. Second question on your guidance. You said that your hedging for 2026 is quite good, actually little bit higher than your projection for 2026. Looking at what the dynamics in the first quarter, notably during January for the retail markets or the potential impact on this hedging, and actually the higher production as from Terna on the thermal side, there are some positives that are contributing actually to your figures for 2026. I was wondering, confirming the guidance today is just because you see that there could be some potential compensating factors to this positive or is it just too early at this time of the year to revise the guidance? Finally, last question on the batteries.
You spoke a little about this technology. You mentioned some upside in your business plan. I was wondering if, given the fact that the technology looks in a good momentum, you can provide your view and if you are thinking about investing this technology in order to let your portfolio generation more flexible and so on. Thank you.
Okay. Coming back to ATS, we considered that we did a simulation to understand what can happen in the bill of a citizen due to the Energy Decree. This is interesting because the idea is to be able to reduce, let's say around 20 EUR, the PUN in all the energy on the market. The energy on the market is today 275 terawatt-hours. Consider that the total consumption is 311, but there is auto consumption, so you have to consider on the market 275. For 20 is more or less EUR 5 billion. The idea of the government is to reduce EUR 5 billion of raw material cost of raw material.
From the other side, the idea is to put on the bill the cost of ETS, considering ETS 30 EUR per MWh in the total TWh of 115. Which is the problem that in this moment the demand is 148 from renewable, including the hydro, 52 from import, and 115 from thermal production. If there is a reduction of PUN of more or less 20%, the total production in renewable remain the same, and there is no hours in which the price is fixed with renewable. We see a reduction of import from 52 to 10, more or less, with an increase of thermal production from 115 to 155-160.
In this case, if you multiply 160 by 30, you can see that there are once again EUR 5 billion of cost of ATS on the bill of our customers. The sum between a reduction of raw material and increase of tax is exactly zero. This is the reason why if you read the last version of the decree where it is written that it is possible to reduce the ATS only if there is the proof not to have impact on the import. That means that it is, if it's possible, more difficult to calculate the real impact of ATS, because you have to imagine an authority or others that have every hour of the day to calculate if the reduction of ATS on the PUN produce a reduction of import or not.
A nightmare, a complete nightmare to move these parts. We imagine that it's super difficult to move these parts. To close, I think that in this moment it's really critical to imagine an ETS effect. I imagine that in EU will find a solution not to accept our Article 6 of our Energy Decree. This is the answer. Talking about batteries only to close. The battery business is interesting. The reduction of price is huge. During the last tender, the price arrived to a super low level. But this is due to the fact that the supply, like CATL or others from China, reduced the price, put on the table 20 years of guarantee.
That means, business plan of 20 years. The problem is, that the payback period of this business is very long, and so, our evaluation is if is interesting or not to invest a lot in a business that is, let's say, like an infrastructure, but the infrastructure is a battery. I confirm that our commitment in battery in this moment is lower than, for example, in power grid. Okay, regarding the guidance, Davide, I think that, it is too early to say something, you can appreciate, you know? Yeah, it is true what you said. We have some opportunities, but also we have some other aspect that we need to take care about. First of all, the price of the energy is lower than last year.
We already incorporated into the business plan, but if you want to make a change compared last year, you have a difference. Sticking on the guidance, we are pretty comfortable to stay on that. Let's see how the scenario is going to move. If we have the chance to getting some more opportunity, of course, we are here, and also to lower the risk for the aspect that are not in the right direction. For the time being, I think that we feel comfortable with the current guidance.
Thank you very much. We don't have any further questions. I will hand you back to Mr. Porro for any closing remarks.
Thank you. Thank you everyone for taking the time to participate for the Q&A, and if you need any additional follow-up or deep dive, please contact the IR department. Thank you, everyone.