Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Thank you for joining A2A presentation of the results of these nine months. After the presentation, there will be the possibility to ask questions. If you need any assistance during the conference call, the operator will assist you by pressing star and zero on your telephone. Mr. Marco Porro has the floor. Thank you and welcome. The results are going to be outlined and described by the CEO, Mr. Renato Mazzoncini, and the CFO, Mr. Luca Moroni. The presentation has been sent to you and is available on our website, and Mr. Renato Mazzoncini has the floor.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to thank you all for joining this conference call, during which we shall present the results as at 30 September 2022 of our group A2A. Now, I'm referring to the presentation that you have, and I will point it when I turn the slides. Let's start from the highlight, the Slide 3 of the presentation. Let me underline that during the Q3 , we have achieved big achievements that were messaged by our industrial plan. In particular, you find the usual two pillars that is energy transition and the circular economy. As to the energy transition, we have completed the upgrade of the CCGT of the Chivasso plant with a contract of 15 years of capacity market, 59 megawatts, and therefore, we're very happy. Even about this, we have acquired 94,000 customers through the digital channel. For us, this is very important, the acquisition of customers on digital customers.
We would like to get to 30% within 2030. We completed then the project related to 1,000 new recharging stations for our own fleet. We have one of the biggest corporate fleet in the country. Now, as to the connection to the circular economy, we have completed the acquisition of SEA Energia, which is a company that was owned by SEA and which provided the power and heat to the airports of Linate and Malpensa, Milan. The Linate plant is very important also for our district heating for the east area of Milan. For this reason, we decided to make this decision. Top right of the slide, you will find the main indicators relating to the long-term strategy.
As you can see, these indicators are all growing. I'd like to dwell on the eolic, wind, and photovoltaic production. As you can see, it is at 475 GWh. This is growing quite considerably, as you can see, up 81%. This is one of the element essential to our growth strategy in generation. The green energy sold is equal to 2.3 TWh, growing by 33%. Moreover, we are increasingly committing to sustainable finance. Thanks to the operations made on the capital market, the ESG debt, sustainable debt, out of the total debt is now at 60%. Very important factor. Let's now move on to Slide 4 of the presentation. Here you can see the highlights of the period.
Now, as you can see, the MSD market is growing. The MSD margin in the nine months has reached EUR 914 million, and this is mainly due to the very poor hydroelectric power production in the country. We had 40% less of such production that led to the imbalance versus thermoelectric power plants that had an exceptional production. MSD margins are, for this reason, the effect of this phenomenon. We have an increase of EUR 90 million of capacity market following the auctions that we won, that we were awarded last year. A positive scenario both for power and heat. You can see that as far as power, we have + EUR 142 million of scenario. Generation, EUR 77 million.
Waste, WTE, and energy sold through WTE, EUR 46 million, and agri-three biomass plants recorded a very good result with EUR 8 million more versus last year. Now, the same applies to the management of district heating. EUR 13 million more related to the waste. The trading portfolio also gave a very important results. Last year, EUR 9 million, this year, EUR 68 million. This is because of volatility. Our trading structure, our trading business unit has been able to capture positively such volatility. We have an increase of EUR 23 million of wind and photovoltaic plants, which are within our scope of consolidation, also following the recent acquisitions of the 3New and 4New funds made with Ardian this year. Other than the above, we have some asset disposals.
We have cash from disposal of properties at EUR 221 million of cash in, and EUR 227 million of disposal of non-strategic item, and we had bonds on RAB, and this generates capital gains that we will find in the net income. Negative elements were energy and gas retail margins, which worsened by EUR 72 million. As you probably have seen, but we shall comment later on, there is a strong recovery this quarter during the previous quarters, and this trend is continuing. Hydroelectric production has certainly decreased. Once again, this is something I made comments on in previous occasions. Our company has a very good mix between hydroelectric, thermoelectric, wind, and photovoltaic production, is capable to make up for the margins of generation.
The margin generations are very similar in Italy, thermoelectric and hydroelectric, comparable one to each other. In this case, the result is positive. The lower margins of hydro is more than offset by thermoelectric production. We had also effects that we shall see later on, related to contributions and regulated revenues related to gas distribution. Of course, there is a negative effect for all of the industry. It is the temporary expansion of the net working capital, which is related to the scenario and the revenue increase. We haven't made comments in the press release about revenues because we know that it is not meaningful, but we closed the 9 months with EUR 17 billion of overall revenues, shows also or explains the increase of the net working capital.
This is a temporary effect, and we hope this will deflate soon when prices become more normal. If we go to page number 5 of the presentation, you will find a summary of all our indicators. Revenues, EUR 16.8 billion. EBITDA growing by 16% ordinary and non-ordinary EBITDA, with a very important value, EUR 48 million of EBITDA. The net income, ordinary net income is growing by 25% with a net financial position which is growing by 19%. Well, I cannot but say that I am particularly satisfied by these figures. I will turn the floor to the CFO, Luca Moroni, who will give you a greater details of the performance of the different business units.
Thank you very much, Renato, and good morning to you on my behalf as well. Page six of the presentation. Let's now look at the group results of the first nine months. As we heard, the EBITDA is growing by EUR 193 million, reported EUR 189 million ordinary EBITDA. Leaving aside one-offs from the previous year, EUR 13 million, and this year, EUR 17 million. These EUR 17 million one-offs this year are related to the water cycle compensations related to previous years. Now, the growth of EUR 189 million is guided by the good performance of the generation business, which, as we said, has the capability to compensate, offset inside its business unit, the lower production versus other opportunities of production, other sources of production. In particular, we witnessed a reduction of the production through hydroelectric power plants.
Such reduction was offset with the hydroelectric power plant production. We should see the details later on. Moreover, the waste business went quite well, EUR 44 million more, and the sum of generation trading and waste offset the lower margins made by the market, the business unit. In Q3, we should see that the latter has recovered as promised and indicated after the presentation of June. The smart infrastructure business show a little low end result, driven by two main factors, the revision of work, which started at the beginning of this year, and also the increase of the costs of electricity, of energy, which impacted on the business. Moreover, we have a number of corporate costs related to digitalization and transformation.
If we go to page seven of the presentation, we get into the details of the performance of the generation business unit. Particularly, let me remind you that Q3 was a very important quarter for the generation business unit. Now, in June, the result was EUR 85 million. We added to this another EUR 164 million of EBITDA. This EUR 164 million EBITDA are broken down in the following manner: EUR 100 million, the industrial portfolio, EUR 30 million related to the contribution of the capacity market, which was awarded to us, thanks to the auctions over 2020, and it's now giving all the effects all over the year. As I said, some EUR 30 million per quarter.
We have the consolidation of the wind and photovoltaic portfolios of the 3New and 4New companies for an overall amount of EUR 20 million. We also have a good performance of the Monfalcone plant, EUR 15 million. Moreover, as we heard, lower hydroelectric power production was offset by the greater production of combined cycle power plants. EUR 56 million is the contribution of the gas portfolio. There, we had the possibility to optimize our operations, thanks to the milder temperatures in October, and we should see that when we speak about the market as well, and shorter positions gave BU generation the possibility to acquire what was purchased on the market at lower prices with a good price difference.
15 million EUR on trading for the quarter, which relate to opportunities that we managed to grasp, thanks to the volatility of the summer months. In the nine months, so looking at the results of the nine months, I go back to what has already been said, the positive trend of MSD, these ancillary services, EUR 139 million. This is mainly due to exceptional situation related to the north area and lower imports. The capacity market, EUR 13 million per quarter. Over the nine months, this will give us a performance of EUR 92 million. Trading in the first nine months of the year contributes EUR 59 million.
Now, the lower hydroelectric production amounted to 39%, as we heard, and this is the data which also reflects or corresponds to the national data, lower production by 1.3 terawatt-hours. To this, we have an assumption of yearly production of 2.7 terawatt-hours. As to the hedge ratio, October, December, we are hedged on fixed rate production 100%, also considering the government support measure, DL Sostegni, and then we are hedged 70% on thermoelectric production. Let me now move on to Slide 8, and let's see the performance of the market business unit. Here we recorded a reduction of margins versus the previous year by EUR 91 million.
In June, we had a reduction of EUR 113 million, and therefore, in the quarter, we had a recovery, a positive recovery of EUR 22 million of EBITDA. The positive trend of this quarter, of the Q3 , is mainly attributable to the commercial action of the sales actions, a better dynamics of the unbalancing that we mentioned before, and also a lower churn rate, which led to us having a better customer base versus the previous year. We now are beyond 3 million customers. Two of these customers are within the free market. Now, overall, we can say that the first nine months of the year gave us a possibility to recover the results of the market business unit, which makes us very hopeful about the results of the other months of the year.
Slide 9 , we have the waste business unit, which is growing by EUR 44 million without considering one-offs. Now, the most important items of this EUR 44 million are related to the WTE plants, which benefit from the energy scenario and also of the increase of disposed of waste, EUR 37 million. Then we have other contributions from disposal of urban waste, agri, which is growing, industrial waste, which is growing by EUR 3 million. Then we have good results related to collection, actually negative results of collection, minus EUR 6 million, related to higher costs and the loss of the urban waste license of Arezzo. Slide 10, the smart infrastructure deal. Here, we mentioned the reduction of margins of gas and water networks.
Now, electricity network, the reduction of work was partly offset by investments made in the year. Whereas, we also had the payment of fees following the concession of the award of the tender in Milan for the integrated water cycle. We had also the increased cost, following the expiry of a fixed rate contract, which expired at the end of H1. Now, all of this was made up for the good management of district heating with a contribution of EUR 26 million and by public lighting, five million euros. Now, if we now go to page 11 of the presentation, we have the net income. We walk you through from EBITDA to net income. The EBITDA, which as we said, EUR 1,148 million. Amortization, EUR 530 million.
Amortization depreciations growing by EUR 45 million versus the previous year because of, especially of higher CapEx made in the, rolling twelve months, and also because of the decrease of scope of consolidations for acquisitions made, EUR 11 million, and then provisions, EUR 57 million. This is mainly due to the receivable impairment fund, which by applying the same criteria of the previous years, considering the increase of revenues, well such fund increased correspondingly. Let me also underline that we haven't seen a deterioration of unpaid ratio, which is at 1%, as it used to be. The DSO is similar to what it was last year with the change of 1 day related to installment payments through installments that we allowed around EUR 118 million. We have financial charges of EUR 57 million.
The result before taxes, EUR 506 million. The tax rate, which is around 31%, EUR 100 million of taxes. If you consider remove the minorities, the ordinary result, EUR 319 million. You need to add to these special items. There is non-recurring items, one-offs, EUR 142 million, which are related to the capital gains for the disposal of properties and the disposal of non-strategic gas assets net of tax effects. As to CapEx, page 12 of the presentation, we have quite a considerably increased CapEx by 25%, EUR 800 million in the first nine months, growing also versus 2021 full year, which had already seen a major increase versus previous years.
Now, this was made possible because we have a procurement and supply chain is quite efficient and no problem in terms of, you know, procurement of materials. Therefore, we could manage well the dynamics of price increases. In particular, such increase by 25% is mainly related to development CapEx. EUR 525 are the development CapEx, +36% versus the same period of 2021. These are investments that we fund mainly in the smart infrastructure business unit, where obviously we are making major investments to strengthen the electric power networks.
Investments in the waste business unit with the completion of the WTE plant of Coriano, which is almost ready to operate. Last month, we inaugurated 2 biomethane plants, one in Piedmont, Cavaglià, one in Lombardy, Lacchiarella. We have investments in the field of generation. 70% of such investments are in line with the UN SDGs, and the breakdown as described the plan, 40% circular economy, 60% energy transition. We grow our investments, and this confirms the direction indicated taken in our industrial plan. I leave the floor to Luca to speak about the cash flow. Page 13 of the presentation. Here you see the cash flow.
Our net financial position has grown by EUR 798 million, and for the following reason, difference in the scope of consolidation, which is related to the acquisitions made, EUR 472 million. Cash flow starts from an EBITDA of EUR 1,148 million. To this, you need to detract, to take away the absorption of working capital, EUR 486 million. We have an increase of receivables and of the inventory value because of the purchase of commodities. Then, we have an item related to the mark-to-market fair value that we can consider as other receivables that will be cashed in in the next few months.
Moreover, we have the tax and financial charges item, EUR 124 million. For this reason, the operating cash flow is at EUR 538 million. EUR 800 million of investments, partly offset by the disposals, EUR 220 million. Dividends, EUR 293 million. The free cash flow, net free cash flow before the external growth is EUR 326 million before the changes in scope of consolidation. Page 14 of the presentation, we wanted to show you how this EUR 798 million of increase of net financial positions includes a number of factors that we can consider non-recurring one-offs.
In particular, the change in scope of consolidation, EUR 472 million, offset by the disposal, EUR 220 million. For this reason, the cash flow, free cash flow is 547. Total amount of EUR 589 million that can be considered as a temporary effect related to the economic scenario. We can break down this working capital into two factors. First, the zeroing out of system charges, government measures which reduced other debts, which have always provided a contribution and partly funded our activities. Other than above this, we allowed certain customers to pay by installments.
Now, as to the EUR 483 million, well, we have to underline the trend of receivables because of increase of commodity prices and the fair value which is offset by the debts. Now, overall of EUR 589 million. These two items, this is what we consider a temporary items. If then put together with the negative 547 million euros, because of these two figures, we would have a positive cash flow of EUR 14 million. We can conclude with the guidance, and then we'll leave the floor to your questions. We decided to revise up our guidance.
The EBITDA goes up by EUR 50 million, and therefore the guidance of the EBITDA ranges from EUR 1.45 billion to EUR 1.5 billion. Not everything has to be taken as such because we have increase of, you know, government measures, and then increase of the provisions, and then the cost of debt, which is going to increase related to inflation. However, the net ordinary income has grown by EUR 10 million, and therefore our range is from EUR 340 million to EUR 380 million.
We therefore conclude our presentation by confirming the huge resilience of the group, both in cases where the scenario is bullish during the COVID pandemic, and also during a bullish scenario like this period. We can confirm the validity of our industrial plan and the hedging capability of a strong group like ours. At this point, I would like to hand you over for the questions. We can now start the Q&A session.
Thank you very much. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We can now start the Q&A session. If you have to ask a question, press star and one on your telephone. To be removed from the question queue, please press star and two. We would like to ask you to ask your questions by using the telephone receiver. Anyone who has a question may press star and one. At this time, the first question from the original language by Javier Suarez with Mediobanca.
Good morning, and thank you very much for your presentation. I have three questions to ask. First of all, the upward review of the guidance. Growing the EBITDA by EUR 50 million, well, it appears modest, moderate, but can you please help us understand the logic behind this EBITDA review and why the Q4 of the year is going to be weaker? Another question about the working capital, Slide 14, you speak about temporary impact on the working capital. Now, what is the timing of recovering of this working capital generation? What is going to be the net debt at the end of the year? What is, for you, for A2A, the reasonable level of net debt for the next two, three years? Are you thinking of restructuring the structure of capital to better manage, you know, CapEx in a context of higher rates? Another question, the recovery of the retail margins in Q3, can you give us the reasons or the commercial strategies you put in place, a bit more details here, and why should this continue over the Q4 of the year? Thank you.
Good morning, Javier. Now, as to the first question that you asked, I'll answer in the following manner. Well, undoubtedly, if we take this quarter and we go to the end of the year, we will have a greater result than what is included in the guidance. Now, the element or the prudence, if you wish, that we adopted is that this very good result has been achieved by an extraordinary margin of the MSD market. While this extraordinary result is somewhat natural in our company, I usually show a chart where you see margins of generation over the past 10 years, and you see that in years where hydroelectric is very good and in years when the hydroelectric market is not going very good, MSD is going very well. It's as if Terna cannot offset completely because or despite of the capacity market doesn't compensate or offset you know imbalances in production. Now I have to say that we're making forecasts for next year, not a forecast that we get because the water basin is somewhat low. Our assumptions is a bit lower than what we we used.
It depends on the rainfall that we are going to have in the next few months. These scenarios are hardly foreseeable. We expect a normal forecast in terms of hydroelectric production, and therefore a normalized MSD. If we have a Q4 with low hydroelectric production, we have to expect that MSD continues to remain high, and therefore the year-end result will be better. Let me also give you the answer on the retail margin, and then Luca will take the working capital question. As to the retail margin, let me underline a very important factor. Now, over the past few days, you've seen it, and you also are witnessing you know, special conditions, and also the dialogue with the antitrust authorities.
Luca before said that margins were recovered, thanks to commercial activities. Well, the commercial activities put in place by A2A was absolutely fair versus our customers. That was a must on the part of the group. We did not withdrew unilaterally from contracts. We had a loss that was generated by short hedging. We had a fixed price contracts that consumed more energy versus what we assumed when we took out the hedging. But nonetheless, we decided that complying with the contracts, respective contracts, was more important than anything else. It takes years to build your reputation, you can lose it overnight. This has a very important value that was recognized by the market. What was the recovery then?
Well, when contracts expired, by proposing something that I would suggest, my brother, I, or we suggest to them to move on to variable price contracts. Prices are very high at this moment. Ideally, customers should have variable price contracts, which of course will be affected possibly when prices go down, that we expect to have before the end of 2024, if not sooner. This led to a reduction of our risk. Variable price contracts are reduced to zero risk. For this reason, we managed to recover on margins. We were very fast, I have to say, to understand that fixed price contracts were no longer the way or the road to go down.
The churn rate was strongly decreasing, and it was no longer necessary for this reason to continue making commercial activities to acquire customers. Customers were flowing in naturally because of the effect of the churn rate. Therefore, we focused carefully on a type of commercial activity close to the needs of our customers, waiting for better times. That allowed us to recover on margins, and also to keep our customers trusting us, which is very important. Margins are also recovering in Q4. Over the past few weeks, we have witnessed that this trend is continuing.
This will allow perhaps not to be able to recover the margins that we lost in the first half of the year, but we probably will be able to close the year much better than we could expect and fear in July. Luca, perhaps you can take the other question. As to the question about timing, well, it depends a lot on the scenario. At the moment we are working based on a scenario which will continue like this at least for the next winter season. Consequently, I don't think that in Q4 of this year, nor in Q1 of next year, we will be able to see a total reabsorption of the working capital that we are managing, however, in an active manner.
As to the level of debt, we would probably be at a level of 3.2x, and we are working, or we are assuming that the next few years, this metric, these indicators, will go down, trying to remain below 3x. It certainly depends on the scenario, but by assuming that we can proceed step by step, well, the overall idea is that of having a reference point in 3x, which is what the whole industry is working on, and trying to remain below 3x. Now as to the level of debt, it very much depends on the scenario. In June, we gave the indication of 4.6x based on the June scenario. Meanwhile, the scenario was very, very volatile.
It went up and down, basically, and we are assuming a range between 4.6%, 4.8%, 4.9%. Please, Javier, consider that looking forward, looking ahead, I always underline the very strong level of CapEx that we have because this drives, you know, growth and the EBITDA of the next few years. When we presented the business plan in 2021, we assumed lower figures than the ones that we have seen over the past two years. We are above the trajectory that we assumed. Certainly, the driver that we have in terms of flexibility is represented by CapEx. If the cost of money deteriorated, we certainly can review our investments or remodulate our investments to be able to balance them.
We have drivers that can continue to drive our business, our growth, but also the possibility to balance, you know, our own financial position. Now you mentioned that the 3.2 times for 7.8, which is driven by the increase of the working capital that you see during the second half of the year. Now the company is, I guess, looking at the structure of capital and the lever of the driver could be that of expanding the capital. Now please, Javier, consider the fact that we have seen an increase in the first half of the year, which is very much connected to commodities.
At the end of August, the world went crazy completely, and the net working capital went up considerably, and now it is going down because it moves in a very consistent manner with the price of commodities. We are not considering absolutely a change in the structure of capital, nor are we considering a change in the dividend policy versus the one we have announced. Now, why? Because in this moment, in 2022, we managed to close the year with levels of CapEx, which are going to be quite important, around EUR 1.7 billion, and with an increase of debt, which is absolutely manageable, because it is at 3.2. Now, as of today, there is almost an automatic reduction of the net financial position related to the trend in commodity prices. I'm simplifying things.
If commodity prices go and skyrocket again in the winter following the news from Russia and the Ukraine, I don't think we can say that. Should that happen, we shall act on development growth to try and reach a balance. On the contrary, if we have a situation that we assume today with prices not going up that much, you know, the net working capital will realign itself, and we should continue without major problems.
Very interesting. Thank you very much.
Next question by Stefano Gamberini with Equita.
Now, first of all, congratulations for the results of this very strong Q3. Let me try and understand a couple of things, if I may. The first issue, commercial receivables, what do you expect next year? What do you see there? I read that you have EUR 160 million of impact on debt because of installment payments. These are guaranteed. What can happen at the beginning of the year within the worst case scenario? Have you done a scenario about debt and what, in your opinion, could be the worst case scenario in H1 of next year? Second question about the guidance for the next year. The guidance of the business plan, EUR 1.6 billion. Now, this year, you gave an indication of EUR 1.5 billion, which appears to be conservative based on what we have seen so far. Now, EUR 1.6 billion of the next year, how is it going to be built?
In particular, can you help us understand the problem of cap 68 EUR per kWh, you know, and how can that impact on your guidance? You mentioned the flexibility of CapEx. I'd like to understand which investments which CapEx cannot be postponed. Meaning you see, you know, immediate returns in terms of revenues. For instance, CapEx in the waste unit or renewable sources of energy. Now, if you were to increase your flexibility, which are the investments that you're going to maintain to preserve for the next year?
Now, as to commercial receivables, let me start answering the question, then we'll see whether Luca wants to add something. Now, this is not a major concern for us. It is connected to the geography, if you wish, of our customer base. We are seeing no impact on DSO and no impact absolutely on receivables, basically. Now, installment payment plans are being coordinated and discussed with customers. They're mainly industrial customers, and the decrease of that in favor of payment by installment. Now this morning the news announced another you know extension of the payment by installment for 36 months. There's no obligation on our part to allow such installment payments. This is part of an agreement with customers and we allow such type of payments with customers that we trust.
For these customers, we analyze their financial statements, and therefore, we apply our own, you know, credit policy, which is quite strict. As to the mass market, there is a more automatic mechanism. As of today, the fact that we have a customer base which is spread out in 7,000 municipalities in the country, but we have a big number of customers, for instance, in Brescia, and for this reason, we feel reassured. Now, in all of our calculations, the issue of commercial receivables, commercial credits is related to the net financial position, but it's not a major risk. Provisions we are making are very, very high. Our policy envisages provisions to move proportionally with revenues.
For this year, we have monster provisions. This year, provisions amount to EUR 100-odd million. Considering this level of provisions, there is honestly only a risk of capital gains rather than of negative upsides. As to 2023, well, today, we cannot give you any guidance about this, as you know quite well. It is quite clear that we find ourselves in a position whereby we have plans starting operations. I mentioned before that we inaugurated, opened up two plants of biomethane or bio-natural gas plants that occurred in October. These plants were built in 3 months, basically, 13 million cubic meters of natural gas or methane.
Imagine when they start operating and be up and running. For this reason, for us, the scenario remains positive, and it's reasonable that we can maintain or keep or improve what we assumed in the industrial plan. We should see that in the next few weeks. Perhaps we'll set up another meeting opportunity to tell you what we have in mind for 2023. Now, as to the investments that we cannot cap are the completion of certain plants. The WTE plant of Verona is going to be completed this year, 250,000 tons. We were awarded the award for the Caivano plant at 100,000 tons.
That plant will start, you know, operating at T zero. We have the capacity market investments. We have won the capacity market auction, and then Monfalcone at 170 tons there as well. The issue of power networks. There, we have a strong commitment which is connected to the energy transition. Well, that is what we are, you know, proud of, and we are committing to. We also committed to the resilience of the network. We are committed to go below one, the number of reductions or interruptions per customer. That is our commitment within the industrial plan, and we intend to keep to that commitment. There are certain other things that we can certainly manage. I do apologize.
Let me add something about the commercial receivables. To give you the overall picture, let me say that EUR 106 million out of this EUR 70 million are related to the zeroing out of system charges and only 36 related to an increase in payments by installments. Overall, the way we are managing this item of receivables, commercial receivables, as you heard, we have a system of monitoring and have policies on credits and on receivables, which are well structured. Over and above this, we always run solvency analysis of the most important of major customers, also on small and medium-sized enterprises. Such analysis is run constantly. We have a system of receivables insurance policy that is attached to more than 100% of the customer base.
Then we have guarantees issued by more structured companies for value of 15%. Then there is a part of, you know, customers and receivables where we're working, for instance, taking out such guarantees, or we're working on some sort of guarantees issued by SACE or insurance policies allowing companies to access more easily to credit, to be able to deal with and manage the problem of increasing prices of the bills. This is basically the attempt to moving towards guarantees so that the whole system keeps remaining positive. We're working quite hard on this with SACE and Confindustria representatives, just to give you an example, which is what you are reading in the press at this moment.
As you can see, the commercial, financial and other functions are very much focused on this. Now, as of today, the third of November, the level of unpaid remains unchanged, and the DSO remains unpaid. From now till the end of the year, I don't think there will be major changes, of course, then we'll have to, you know, go through the winter months. With the implementation of such measures, we should, I believe, have or reached a quite high level of protection, with the evolution of the situation, we will have to see if all of this is to be adjusted. Let me ask a follow-up question. EBITDA EUR 1.6 billion. I'm very happy that you say that you can expect to be better next year.
Versus the business plan, we have now 68 EUR per megawatt hour for next year as well. How does this impact? Then CapEx, you haven't mentioned renewables. What is the organic growth of renewables for the next year? Or can this somehow be postponed in terms of the CapEx? As to the cap is 58 EUR, not 68. 58 + 10% can reach, therefore, 65 EUR. We took this into account, and we ran a number of even more conservative assumptions. However, investments made over the past two years and start producing revenues offset more than offset this cap. Please remember that since we sold Terna below price of 58 EUR.
Now, if you compare 2021, 2022, and 2023, the fact that we have a cap of 58 EUR does not change the economic data. It can only be a stronger upside if, for instance, the cap remains until June, as the law envisages today, because this is a price at which we have always sold hydroelectric power and renewable power coming from renewable sources. I think you heard the same statements by Enel and other companies, because those who produce hydroelectric power have always sold hydroelectric power at 58 EUR per MWh. So I see it only as an upside. As to renewables, as you remember, I said let's start with M&As because we need to position in this sector.
We were very strong in hydroelectric power, but we only had 99 MW in solar production. We wanted to become seen as a player on the market. With the acquisition from Ardian, we now have 400 MW, and we are among the major players on the market. Meanwhile, we launched a pipeline development platform, a GW in the pipeline at different levels of progress. We are also an engineering company, and we want to grow in greenfield and renewable plants. This of course can generate a level of CapEx. You remember the authorization times in Italy are what they are, and the pipeline becomes mature in a given period of time.
Our growth or our curve of growth is the following: when we start with the greenfield stage, it continues to grow. Shortly, we shall or let me give you an example. We started growing a wind plant in Matarocco, in a 60, very nice place amid vineyards, 30-megawatt plant with the best turbines of 4 megawatts each. We acquired a ready-to-build plant in Friuli. Santo Stefano is the biggest solar plant in the north of Italy, 60-megawatt, that we will continue to build starting next year. However, let me say that the biggest development is going to be in starting from 25, 2025 going forward, because you see the maturation of the pipeline. Perhaps you'll see a lot of development in the renewables production simply because the pipeline has to, you know, become ready and mature. Whenever something ready, we start operating it immediately.
Thank you. The next question by Emanuele Oggioni by Kepler Cheuvreux.
Now, good morning. I'd like to congratulate you for the results and for the improvement in your guidance. Now, the first question is about the outlook for 2023 for the Markets business unit. Can you give us an update of the renegotiation of fixed price contract, which I believe has almost been completed, but then you have to wait for the natural expiry of this contract. We expect in 2023 to strongly see a stronger recovery of the market business unit since almost every contract has been turned from a fixed price to variable price contract.
Can you give us the improvement of the EBITDA of this business unit versus 2022? To have precise numbers, we will await the update of the industrial plan. Within the industrial plan that you mentioned before, one of the variables is related to a better clarity or having a better idea on the new price cap or the new regulatory framework that may be introduced in generation by differentiating price caps for different technologies or introducing an a priori tax on utilities. Now, do you have any visibility about this versus what we have? Then, about this, there is the issue of hedging. Can you update us about the hedgings of hydro and other source of production in terms of volumes and price levels?
Now, if the proposal of the European Commission is translated into law in this country, well, this should be protected and not affected by a lower price cap versus the you know, hedging, and therefore there should be universal protection. A clarification about details on the gross debt. Can you please indicate the part of gross debt which has a variable rate and the percentage of hedged fixed rate debt, and also the maturities, and how much you expect in terms of increase in the cost of debt in 2023 versus the current values?
Emanuele, the first question you answered yourself. It is quite clear that the market is already benefiting and started to do so in September from the transformation of contracts into variable price contract. In 2023, this will basically affect all of the contracts, and this will help us sell, help the industry rebalance the margins. Well, let me say that those that had the idea, the insight, that was the direction to take and that fixed rate contracts are going to die out are, you know, the ones who are getting, you know, benefits sooner, but everybody is going in that direction. Please remember that our customer base is growing. We expect a major growth also for next year. We are growing more than we expected. With the variable price contract, the risk is down to zero, margins are improving, and we expect a growth by EUR 50-60 million versus 2022. Let me then answer the question about the overall framework, and let me take this opportunity to tell you that we opened an office in Brussels.
We are the only one among the market utilities that have that office in Brussels, because it is there that you have the generation of the regulatory framework. It is very important to be there and to be close to that area. Very often, I go to Brussels to myself to see what happens. Now, the decoupling of gas from renewables, marginal pricing, we're not going to see that. Why? Because it cannot work unless the market paradigm doesn't change. Today, it looks as if on the market you have one shop selling all of the different electricity sources. At the same time, once they are assembled.
If we separate a shop in two and keep it one next to the other on the market, while the renewable shop, you know, will look to secondary the price at which fossil fuel energy come in, will reposition itself a bit low, and nothing will change. The result is going to be the same. This has been understood by almost everyone. I am part of the technical discussion of the Confindustria, the Association of Industrialists. Enel also is part of it, and we made sure that this thing was understood. The most important thing to decouple the energy sources is having a TPA platform and be able to change the paradigm.
I think that when it comes to renewables, you have to sell them on a RAB-based mechanisms, and this requires, however, a different market logic. For this reason, we proposed this platform called Nera, and in Europe, no proposal of this kind was submitted, and the only proposal is the one submitted by Italy. I see it quite favorably, because the fact that you have PPA, which are structural on renewables is very good, especially for us, that we can hedge our position in renewables, thanks to our customer base, even better so then. I do not see scenarios of this kind in our assumptions. We tend to say that, you know, we don't say, first of all, a European price cap.
The council meeting of the twenty-fourth of November, to me, will not issue anything special. The only decision that I can expect today is a common purchase of gas, as you know, something going forward. This would be positive because it would help to keep gas purchase price a bit lower, but we are not seeing any meaningful movement, nor at European level, nor at Italian level. In our forecast, mechanisms of local price caps on our own renewables perhaps can last a bit more, and then we'll have to see. Now, once again, the EBITDA coming from the mix of our sources reassures us. As to the hedging ratio of 2023, slightly above 70% fixed price production, 10%, around 10% hedging on CCGT. As to debt, 75-76% is fixed rate, average maturity is six years. The cost is or should be around 1.5-1.7%. Next year up slightly above 2%, including also the idea of you know the latest rate scenario that we have seen.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no other questions from the conference call.
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