ACEA S.p.A. (BIT:ACE)
Italy flag Italy · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
22.80
+0.36 (1.60%)
Apr 27, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: H1 2024

Jul 25, 2024

Operator

Thank you very much, and good afternoon. Welcome to the Acea Group's first half of 2024 presentation. Fabrizio Palermo, General Manager and CEO of Acea, and Sabrina Di Bartolomeo, CFO, will be illustrating the main financial highlights. At the end of the presentation, a Q&A session will follow. Fabrizio, please, over to you.

Fabrizio Palermo
General Manager and CEO, Acea Group

Good evening, everyone. First of all, thank you very much for attending the conference call today. We're reporting on the first half year of 2024 results that are characterized by an evolving regulatory and market environment.

As for regulation, as you can see on page two, the water service tariff method for MT4 has been introduced, leading to an increase in the WACC from 4.8% to 6.1%, and higher tariff caps by around 2% ahead, and negotiations with the local authorities for tariff increases are currently underway and will proceed in the second part of the year. As for grids, the provisional 2024 tariffs are approved with the resolution of the May 20, 2024, and the new ROSS-based approach has been introduced based on the total spending mechanism for the sixth regulatory period, which has driven the WACC higher from 5% to 6%.

As for commodity prices and inflation, the 2024 energy price fell down to EUR 93 per MWh, approximately a reduction of EUR 42 per MWh versus the same period of last year. Also, the gas price is dropping down to EUR 31 per MWh, down EUR 16 versus the same period of 2023. In June, inflation grew 0.1% on a monthly basis and 0.8% year-on-year. So these are a number of key factors as far as commodity prices and inflation is concerned. As for interest rates versus the first half of 2023, short-term interest rates have slightly grown, while the long-term rates have rapidly dropped. Page two, you see Euribor at 6 months, that increased, whereas the Mid- Swap has dropped to 2.7% versus 3% the same period the previous year.

Market interest rates reflect the first ECB interest cut of 25 basis points. Within this framework, the results of the group are all positive. Revenues are growing, especially when it comes to regulated businesses. Revenues amounted to EUR 2 billion, regulated business accounts for EUR 1.2 billion, growing 2%. EBITDA, recurring EBITDA, amounted to EUR 720 million, up EUR 50 million compared to 2023, driven mainly by the growth of regulated business. Water Italy grew 5%, Grids and Public Lighting 16%, and the Commercial sector also contributed favorably, but all offset the adverse energy scenario that reported a drop in prices. The recurring net profit amounted to EUR 168 million, up 18% compared to same period 2023, not including one-off and the scope changes.

As I said, the recurring net profit amounted to EUR 168 million, up 18% compared to 2023. EBITDA improvement and the improvement of the financial management more than offset the rise in depreciation linked to the regulated businesses. Gross CapEx amounted to EUR 568 million, increasing 4% compared to 2023, net of the investments financed by grants. The aggregate shows a decrease of around 5% compared to the previous year. Net investments in regulated businesses account for roughly 90% of the group total. As for the free cash flow, the operating free cash flow, it grew by EUR 25 million. A positive operating free cash flow, in line with the first half of 2023.

This enabled the group to maintain a sound financial structure with an EBITDA ratio of 3.54x , in line with the guidance that we provided early this year. Moving on to the next page, you find all the details about the highlights I've just provided. EBITDA is growing, as you can see, from EUR 670 million in the first year of 2023, to EUR 729 million. Net profit increased from EUR 142 million to EUR 172 million. The NFP EBITDA ratio is in line with guidance, and the net debt has increased from EUR 4. 847 billion to EUR 5. 130 billion. CapEx increased on the previous year, from EUR 548 million to EUR 568 million.

In the first half year of 2024, we confirm our focus on regulated businesses that account for 86% of the group's EBITDA, and 89% of CapEx. As already pointed out, NFP EBITDA ratio stands at 3.5x, in line with the full year guidance, notwithstanding the increase in net debt of approximately EUR 283 million in the first year, mainly driven by the payment of dividends. So therefore, the 2024 guidance is confirmed. EBITDA expected to grow by 3.5% on 2023. Investments amounting to EUR 1.5 billion, EUR 1.1 billion net of grants, and the NFP EBITDA ratio is confirmed at 3.5x . Drilling down on single items, you see page six is dedicated to the evolution of EBITDA and the contribution of the various units to EBITDA.

There you can see the role played by the water business and by grids and public lighting, that together with environment, account for 86% of the group's EBITDA. If we move on to the next page, net profit. Again, here you see the evolution of the net profit, which was favorably impacted by the financial management. So despite the increase in financial charges, the final result is positive. So net profit, the group's net profit, increased from EUR 142 million to EUR 172 million in the first half of 2024. On the following page, you see the evolution of CapEx, showing the largest share accounted for by the water business, at EUR 343 million invested in the first half of 2024.

Such amount was invested mainly on the expansion of water and sewage pipes, and the maintenance of plants and networks, as well as on treatment plants. Treatment plants account for a key activity for the group. As for grids and public lighting, we have invested on the upgrading of the grid. We have restarted the work on the grids in Rome and in the metropolitan area of Rome. So first on primary and secondary substations, and we started installation of 2G meters. As for the environment business, we've started work on the San Vittore plant. We are working on the fourth line of San Vittore plant, and then we have revamped the fumes line at the Terni plant. All the other businesses contribute only marginally to the total CapEx of the group.

On the following page, you see the evolution of the cash flow in the first half of 2024, and this shows the contribution of the various entities to cash generation. We see that in the first half , we have the impact of dividend paid out. Final point on the financial structure. Today, we confirm our rating with a stable outlook, both by Fitch and Moody's. We confirm our NFP EBITDA ratio in line with the guidance. On this page, you see the debt structure and the updated activities. I would like now to leave the floor to Sabrina Di Bartolomeo, who will be dwelling on the results of the various business units.

Sabrina Di Bartolomeo
CFO, Acea Group

Thank you very much, and good afternoon.

As far as our Water Italy business is concerned, here we report organic growth, driven mainly by investments made over the past few years. Tariffs grew, mainly in 2023, and so we still feel the impact of ARERA and factor in the impact of MT4. This will be done only when the tariffs will be set. The net equity consolidated companies report a slight decrease of EBITDA. That is mainly due to CapEx done in the previous years, implying a meaningful rate of depreciation, and we have a lower contribution from Gori. All in all, the business grew 5%, and that's the fully organic growth.

As for the CapEx, we have started implementing some of the investments related to the national recovery plan, so that's why you see an increase of investments, and you see that the ramp will be recalculated at the end of the year. Moving on to grids and public lighting, so focusing on our core businesses, here we see growth of revenues. Here, we have already factored in the increase of tariffs, because a different regulation applies here. EBITDA is growing, and the overall growth is 60%, thanks to the organic growth and the increase in electricity distribution tariffs driving growth from 5.2%-6%. CapEx increasing. We have raised almost EUR 115 million in the first year half, which bears witness to our ability to make business-critical investments.

As for the key KPIs, the number of utilities is slightly increasing. Electric power distribution is stable, and we are installing smart power meters, metering activity that we had announced. As for the environment, as you might remember, we had a downtime at the Terni waste treatment plant, which impacted our revenues as well as our EBITDA. This factor, as of course, I mean, the fact that the Terni plant is not working, had a full impact on our results. CapEx are increasing. Remember that we are developing the fourth line at San Vittore, that we already started, plus the upgrade of the Terni plant, which contribute to an increase by EUR 3 million.

As for the main KPIs, we have, again, the impact of, the Terni plant stop, that became operative again end of May. So we'll be seeing the positive impact of the second year half. As for production, unfortunately, this year, we have greatly suffered from a lower, hydroelectric production center and of the South Italy, where stricken by drought, both in the winter and now, as a consequence, we suffered a lot, unlike, the North Italy, where the rainfall was abundant. So we have experienced a reduction in volumes, as well as the prices, as far as, electric energy is concerned. And this had negatively a substantial impact on the performance of, of the group.

As for electricity generated and sold, you may have noticed that we reported a substantial drop, mainly driven by the reduction of the hydroelectric power production. As for commercial, very good performance, drop in revenues driven by the reduction of electricity generated and sold, but we experienced an improvement of the margins and expansion of the customer base. Customer base is supplying both electricity and gas increasingly. CapEx is increasing, reflecting the acquisition of new customers. So I would like to give the floor back to Dario now, to start the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you very much, Sabrina. The presentation is over. We can therefore start the Q&A session. Thank you very much. So this is the conference call operator. The Q&A session can start now.

Participants, wishing to ask a question must press star followed by one on their keypads. To leave the waiting list, press star followed by two. Please, ask your question using your headsets. Participants wishing to ask a question now, can press star followed by one. The first question by Javier Suarez, Mediobanca.

Javier Suarez
Managing Director and Vice Head of European Equity and Credit Research, Mediobanca

Good evening, and thank you very much, for your presentation. I've got three questions then. The first, about page nine, namely the cash flow statement, and the delta in the working capital in the first half . We're talking about EUR 130 million, roughly, are due to regulatory amounts or lower amounts of receivables. So this is the kind of argument that was provided. Can you please break out these two elements, the regulatory items and the lower amount of receivables held?

What do you expect in the second half ? So, where do you expect to end up, starting from this EUR 130 million, where should we get by the end of the year? That was my first question. Second question, the waste to energy plan in Rome. In your press release, you say that you are waiting for the award of the tender. Can you please update us about the deadline that you expect to start the development of the waste to energy plant? And, what kind of investment will Acea have to bear? Can you please update us on this? And the third question refers to the recently announced partnership with the Acquedotto Pugliese.

To what extent are such partnerships relevant to the Acea Group, to contribute to the development and the upgrade of the water system in Italy, of the water network in Italy, which is an emergency in fact?

Fabrizio Palermo
General Manager and CEO, Acea Group

I can answer your first question about the working capital. You're right, Javier. Working capital is a negative in the first half this is mainly due to regulatory changes. So most of it is the result of regulatory changes, and tariff increases in particular. And then a residual impact of previous activities. We pay the utmost attention to the P&L, and as far as full year is concerned, we expect an improvement definitely, but in the second half , and this will enable us to recover parts of the net working capital.

But all in all, we're currently performing better than we had planned or that we expected in turn.

Sabrina Di Bartolomeo
CFO, Acea Group

So good afternoon, Javier. As for your second question, about the waste to energy plan, we are waiting, in a few days, the final confirmation by the municipality of Rome, about the tender that has been awarded. So this is what we are waiting for, to start up the WTE. We expect the WTE to start end of this year, early next year. It's impossible to say the exact date now, but more or less, this is what we expect. I'm confident, however, that it will be sooner than later. We are getting ready within the consortium, but we still have to wait for, you know, the time that is generally required to award the tender.

As for the partnership with the Acquedotto Pugliese, well, it is a partnership that will enable us to bid for a tender that will award 30% of aqueduct to power companies. This is an important step for us, I mean, this partnership, because in future, we will be able to become a part of the shareholding of Acque del Sud. That is, if you will, a strategic move to then start to operate in the center and south of Italy. We are fully aware of the importance of water, and we have seen the Italian government recently allocating investments to the water network to upgrade it, and additional resources will be allocated to start the important project at Peschiera.

We have been allocated additional resources to fully cover the funding of the Peschiera project, so we expect the project to be starting shortly in the next few months. Next question.

Operator

Next question by Stefano Gam berini at Equita SIM.

Stefano Gamberini
Financial Analyst, Equita SIM

Good evening. Thank you very much for taking my question. First question about water, the water business. Well, you didn't factor in the WACC increase of roughly 130 basis points. So this means that for the full year, we will be short of EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million of grants when such a tariff increase takes place. So considering this trend, together with all the other positive trends, it could give a full-year guidance of the EBITDA of 5%-6%.

I would say it is not conservative, and considering that the Terni plant will start operating again in the second half. And considering that the tariffs increases will have to be approved by the local authorities, what happens if they don't? So what kind of risk do you expect? The authorities set a maximum increase of 8.4, so you would be short of 200 basis points. I refer then to the question about the net working capital. Net working capital deteriorated by EUR 100 million versus H1 2023. So in the H1 2023, it was only EUR 30 million. Why did the working capital deteriorate? And what are the managerial actions that you plan to put in place, regardless of the tariff increases and adjustments?

I mean, in the plan, you planned improvement of the net working capital by EUR 160 million, thanks to such actions, whereas for the full year, you report a slight improvement, whereas I would expect a substantial improvement. So I would like to understand whether I'm not making the right calculations. And the last question, actually the last two questions, refer to OpEx. OpEx, EUR 200 million before inflation, was the target for a reduction of OpEx. Where do you stand here? And then the asset rotation. So what about the asset rotation if you increase investments on the regulated business? So I will just say, and disposal of minorities in the waste business, is there any novelty? Can you update us about this?

Are you still focusing on this, or is this a kind of activity that will be post delayed along in the plan frame, time frame?

Javier Suarez
Managing Director and Vice Head of European Equity and Credit Research, Mediobanca

So as far as I can answer this question about the working capital, and then obviously we'll answer all the other questions. As for working capital, in my opinion, we should consider it by quarter and not by half year. If you consider Q2 2024, working capital is improving vis-à-vis the same period of last year. And then please remember that last year, we also benefited from the system charges in the first half . And we reduced also our disposals. So I would say that from my perspective, this is a good result, and it is definitely better than we planned.

You also should consider that in the first half , most of the payments that take place are typically, because of the nature of our business, we tend to certify them in the second part of the year, so we have to pay in the first part of the year, and this explains why we expected improvement of the Net Working Capital in the second half . Also, following the positive contribution of the tariff increase. As for your question about tariffs in general, I can say that this is a time-consuming process. It's a matter of managing such tariffs increases at local level, which is a very complex process. We are nevertheless confident, and we will be keeping you posted and updated about this point, about mainly in the second part of the year, as we already announced.

All in all, I believe that there is much more awareness about the difficult situation that Italy is experiencing about the water supply, especially in the south of Italy, which is something that is driving investment. Our company has a long-term track record, which is also testified by the awards that we received by ARERA, and that's why we're investing on a new solution, but for instance, on a water treatment plant and the reuse of water, and on this basis, that we are very well positioned also going forward. Currently, we do not think it is appropriate to update our guidance, so we don't change it, and we confirm it because we have always been very conservative, and we always have taken up a very conservative approach.

The company has done a great job in terms of financial diligence, and the same applies to cost. So that's why we confirm the guidance that we gave just a few months ago. As for asset rotation, we are working on it. Difficult to say exactly when we'll be able to. We are working on it. Difficult to say exactly when we'll be able to complete the process. As you know, they do not account for, I mean, asset rotation does account for a key part of our business plan. We are certainly ready to grasp opportunities, because, of course, asset rotation must be seen as growth opportunities for the group. So we are not in a hurry, in a way. We're not looking for opportunities at all costs.

When we illustrated our business plan, we pointed out that our business plan is not revolving around asset rotation. But at the same time, we also counted targets abroad. We actually in a small tender in Peru, which confirms that we pay the utmost attention to all the assets that we have in the group. We have decided to, again, focus and then keep under scrutiny all the assets that we already have. Plus, the follow-up question on the Net Working Capital. So the quality of risk. Sorry, I should say, the quality of risk, yes, is not deteriorating, in other words. This is what you said. You're absolutely right. This is exactly what I said. Quite the reverse.

We are doing better in terms of receivables that we are cashing in, so we are doing better.

Stefano Gamberini
Financial Analyst, Equita SIM

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Next question by Emanuele Giorgi at Capital SGR.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much for your presentation, and good afternoon, everyone. I've got a couple of questions. The first is about the industry outlook and the industry concentration. We recently heard about the desire of consolidating the water industry to reduce the number of players. So is this something that the Italian government is really considering, in your opinion? And what could be the measures that the government can adopt to, I mean, foster the market consolidation?

I know this is something that has not been factored in, in your plan and in your numbers, but, I would like to know from you whether you believe that the market consolidation is, something that can really happen, and, when? And then, the end, a second question about the energy supply. Can you tell us a bit more about the drivers that have driven, your profitability per customer? Because, the number of customers, has slightly increased. The volumes, especially of electricity sold, have dropped, so there's been an increase of profitability by customer. What were the main drivers, of this, profitability increase? Is it due to negotiation of, of contracts at a fixed price that are going to expire in the next, future, so they will have to be negotiated at, at a lower price?

And at that point, what is the sustainability of these markets, and can you provide us with some guidance of the EBITDA for the energy supply in 2024?

Fabrizio Palermo
General Manager and CEO, Acea Group

As for the market consolidation, difficult to say when this is going to materialize. It's a long time-consuming process. Again, we are actually getting equipped or we are equipping ourselves also to act as a market consolidator. But again, we would not be in for. We are currently following with great attention all the tenders that will be launched, that will be organized. And there's no doubt that this is an important opportunity for us, but I cannot say when the market consolidation process will come to an end.

In some Italian regions, the regulator will have to make some configurations, because the water market in Italy is characterized by more than 2,500 players, which is an incredibly high number. So I expect the regulator to consider this in the next future. As for our commercial business, and then I leave the floor to Sabrina to answer this.

Sabrina Di Bartolomeo
CFO, Acea Group

So the improvement of results of our commercial business is actually the result of a number of factors. An increase in the customer base, also following the agreements that we have to acquire new customers through Wind. As for profitability per customer, well, we are working on it, and I believe that the results of this work are very visible.

As you know, we focus very much on the free market, and this has enabled us to experience an increase in the number of customers. We are seeing, at the same time, a drop in the number of customers in the protected market, which have a different margins. We are not signing new fixed price contracts, we are actually working on indexed price, indexed contracts.

Operator

Next question by Francesco Sala at Banca Akros.

Francesco Sala
Equity Analyst, Banca Akros

Good afternoon, and thank you very much for your presentation. Just one question: New business plan, you have been part of a faster WACC for water business, and slightly declining for electricity distribution, 1% for distribution, and 0% for water. Do you confirm these figures, or can you update us about these figures, also for 2025?

Sabrina Di Bartolomeo
CFO, Acea Group

Well, as for electricity distribution, well, 80% of the time allowed to update the market has elapsed. So we have a mark-to-market estimate at 5.6. In our plan, we had factored in 5.7, so we are essentially in line. As for the other aspect, namely distribution, the new rate is 3.4 currently, even though we're still pending the definitive data. I think I had the opportunity to say this in the previous call, but if you want to have a better idea, every hundred basis points will have an impact of EUR 3.5 million. Then going forward, we have decided to be conservative, and we hope that we will have some favorable surprises, good surprises.

Francesco Sala
Equity Analyst, Banca Akros

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

I remind participants that if they want to ask a question, you can press Star followed by one on your keypads. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no more questions at the moment. All right, then. Thank you very much for attending our conference call. The Investor Relations function is available for additional questions, and we grasp the opportunity to wish you nice holidays. This is the conference call operator. The conference call is over. You can disconnect now. Thank you very much.

Powered by