ACEA S.p.A. (BIT:ACE)
Italy flag Italy · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
22.80
+0.36 (1.60%)
Apr 27, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: H2 2021

Mar 14, 2022

Giuseppe Gola
CEO, ACEA

Thank you. Thank you very much for connecting to the presentation of the Acea Group as at the 31st of December 2021. Here with me we have the CEO and the CFO and the Head also of Investor Relations. They will present the results, and then there will be a Q&A session. Thank you. Thank you very much for attending this presentation of the results of the 2021 results. A year which closed in a positive manner despite the context. First due to the pandemic and then the energy prices and the volatility of energy prices.

If you go to the presentation page 2, you can see all the main key indicators which show a positive trend in some cases in line with the expectations, in other even above the expectations of the market. EBITDA EUR 1.256 million +9% versus 2020. Now, if you remember, our guidance was initially that of a growth of EBITDA between 6%-8%. We revised our guidance in June here above 8%. We closed it with +9%, so even better than our new guidance. Net profit growing by 10%, EUR 313 million. CapEx EUR 931 million, up 5% versus the previous years, but in line with our guidance, which was around EUR 900 million.

In the latest period, we said we were to recover, and we did. CapEx up 5%. Net debt, EUR 3.977 billion. Our guidance was between EUR 3.85 billion and EUR 3.95 billion. We are slightly greater because of the absorption of the working capital because of the actions of the government trying to reduce the impact of the energy and gas bills. You know, the system challenges had a negative impact on our working capital. As to the leverage, net debt EBITDA 3.17 x and net debt RAB 0.71 x in line with expectations.

Today, the board of directors of Acea has proposed a dividend share of EUR 0.85 versus EUR 0.80 last year, so up 6.3%. This dividend is tantamount to a payout of 58% of the net profit of the group, which is in line with our guidance, which we then confirmed of a payout between 50% and 70%. Overall, the dividend is above what we had foreseen in our business plan. On the basis of these results and on the basis of the performance that we are starting to measure for 2022, our guidance for 2022 is EBITDA growing between 2% and 4% growing versus 2021.

We need to take into account that this growth is affected by the regulated WACC for electricity and distribution, which leads to a reduction of revenues and margins equal to EUR 26 million for the Acea Group, which are tantamount to 2%. Net of this 2%, guidance growth is in line with what we have in our plan, starting from an EBITDA level, which is slightly higher than what we have in our plan. CapEx for 2022, broadly in line with 2021, above EUR 900 million. Net debt, considering M&As transactions which absorb cash or equity investments that absorb cash, our guidance is net debt EUR 4.2 billion-EUR 4.3 billion.

Page 3, you have a summary of the main events that occurred in 2021. On the left, we have M&A transactions. In July 2021, we announced two acquisitions in the field of waste management. In particular, one for plastic recycling, the acquisition of AMEG, which was closed in October 2021, and Circuplast closed in January 2022. September 2021, acquisition of 65% of Deco, the largest waste treatment plant in Abruzzo. The deal was closed in November 2021. December 2021, we communicated the results of a long and complex project, whereby we then chose Equitix as financial partner for the development of photovoltaic assets. We acquired the majority stake of the NewCo that will manage the photovoltaic plants.

Within the plan, we have an evaluation of EUR 320 million of enterprise value with an impact on the consolidation of EUR 160 million. Then the photovoltaic farm is of 105 MW, 46 MW qualifying for various feed-in tariffs, and 59 representing newly built plants. Then, at the end of the year, Acea won an auction in consortium with Ascopiave and Iren for the purchase of ATEM of gas distribution concessions. Acea will take the part relating to Abruzzo, Molise, and Campania regions. As to the business development for 2021, here on the right, you have the most important events. April 2021, we launched the e-mobility app, getting into the e-mobility mobility services.

Within our sustainability plan, in June 2021, we launched an offer called Luce 100% Green and Gas 0% CO₂. This is an offer for our customer, which entails zero CO₂ emissions. July 2021, we announced a partnership between Acea Energia and Wind Tre to partner on the electricity market and gas for the Veneto and Puglia region. December 2021, we announced a partnership with our minority shareholder, Suez, for the digitalization of water metering systems. In January 2022, we communicated the extension of the partnership with Wind Tre, which will then extend nationwide. February 2022, Acea Innovation and Federdistribuzione entered into agreement for the delivery of projects linked to the ecological or environmental transition.

Page 4, you have the key highlights, key financial highlights, which we already mentioned, but we should now summarize. Revenues, EUR 3,972 million, up almost 18% versus the previous years. EBITDA, EUR 1,256 million, up 8.7% versus the previous year. EBIT, EUR 501 million, up 8.6%. Group net profit, EUR 313.3 million, up 10% versus the previous years. Dividend per share, EUR 0.85 per share, +6.3%. CapEx, EUR 931 million. These are net of investments linked to assets to be deconsolidated in the field of photovoltaic and the net of investments which are achieved or realized with public grants.

These investments are about CapEx are growing by 5% versus the previous years. Net debt, EUR 3.177 billion. It's up versus the same period last year, 31 December 2020. Let me tell you something about it. If you reclassify the net debt according to the new ESMA classification and the new accounting principles, that would be EUR 3.988 billion, considering the fact that financial credits can no longer be taken into account to decrease the net debt. As to the employees of the group, net of those who work abroad, from 6,710 at the end of 2020 to 7,025 at the end of 2021.

This is the effect of acquisitions made in the field of the environment. Page 5 will give you some details about the dividends. We shall submit to our shareholders' meeting a proposal of a dividend of 0.85 EUR per share. You can see how we got there. 0.71 in 2018, 0.78 in 2019, 0.80 in 2020, 0.85 in 2021. Payout ratio, 58% on the net profit of the group, and the dividend yield versus the last price of last week is 5.1%. At this point, I have finished this general part. I hand you over to the CFO, who will give you some indications about sustainability and what we are doing in the field of sustainability. We shall develop, implement our plan by taking sustainability one of the key pillars.

Stefano Songini
Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability, ACEA

Afternoon. Thank you very much, Giuseppe. Good afternoon to everyone. As our CEO was saying, sustainability is at the heart of our strategic decisions and our operations for some time now. This can be seen in our economic results, but also in the decisions made. On page 6, we have illustrated the main businesses. As for water business, we've been successful in reducing the water losses or the water leaks. We managed to reduce the volume of water leaks by 8%. This is the average, of course. As for water leaks in Rome, they dropped down to 28.6%. Three years ago, they exceeded 41%. As you might know, the water integrated cycle includes treatment of sludges. We have treated roughly 152,000 tons of sludge, which is 67% were recovered.

This again, to foster circular economy versus 44% in 2020. As for energy infrastructure, we're still increasing the efficiency of the grid by installing smart meters in 2022. Only in 2021 we installed 316,000 meters. We are, of course, managing the lighting points in Rome. We are managing 201,000 lighting points, 92% of which use LED lamps. As for generation, 2021 was a very good year. Production increased by 10%, 7% of which is energy produced from renewables, which means saving roughly 220,000 tons of CO2. We are certainly focusing on the synergies and the circular economy at the Roma Sud treatment plant and the Torrevaldaliga Power Station.

As for the environment business, thanks to our acquisitions, we are expanding our capacity to treat waste. Four hundred and seven thousand tons were treated as waste to energy in 2021, and waste to energy electricity has increased to 356 GW h. As for commercial and trading business, we have introduced the green energy and gas eco offers. 100% apply to all new customers acquired in 2021 after the launching of this offer, and it will be progressively extended to our retail customers, too. In 2021, we sold roughly 2,300 GW h of green energy on the free market, double what we did in 2021. We have now reached 38% of the total of the energy sold.

With our digital billing, we have managed to save tons of paper, 152 tons of paper, to be precise, thanks to digital billing, as I said. Prosumer clients, the energy prosumer clients, that increased by 8% to 15,786. This is a very important figure because this is going to account for one of our pillars going forward. We have made a lot of progress also in the G area of the ESG acronym. We are particularly proud of what we did also in the social area. For instance, the Acea vaccination hub has vaccinated thousands of people just last year. We are vaccinating now refugees coming from Ukraine to Rome.

Considering the price pressure the CEO mentioned, we are making efforts to assist the weakest clients, let's say, by providing a social bonus discount on electricity and gas and water bills, with savings of EUR 8.8 million and EUR 2.4 million respectively. Sustainability is key also as far as the supply chain is concerned. Eighty percent of our suppliers are qualified suppliers who have completed assessment questionnaire on issues relating to sustainability, and we are progressing with the rollout of EcoVadis rating to our suppliers. We have carried out 15,444 inspections on work sites in 2021. As you heard, our headcount increased over the past year, and 84% of new hirings are all permanent contracts, which is a key, and roughly 40% of new hires is younger than 30 years of age.

We are progressively, let's say, making our headcount younger, let's say. Despite COVID, we have organized more than 170,000 hours of training, which is a great success considering all the restrictions due to the pandemic. In 2022, we were certified Top Employers in Italy. As for the social area, again, we have completed a diversity and inclusion plan that was adopted by the board of directors recently, and we are implementing a policy that will follow suit the diversity inclusion plan adopted. As for governance, our sustainability goals are deeply integrated in the short-, medium-, and long-term remuneration plans for our management. 10% of their short- and medium- and long-term remuneration is linked to quantitative sustainability goals.

As for green financing, we issued our first green bond in January, and our CFO will be providing more details about this. I would like to point out that we have managed to either retain or improve our sustainability ratings compared with 2020. We have already progressed substantially in this regard, but we'll try and do better in 2022. In May, we'll be publishing the first TCFD report. Now I would like to hand you over to our CFO.

Valentina Bracaglia
CFO, ACEA

Thank you very much, Stefano. Let's move on to page 8 to dwell on the key financial highlights of 2021. As we said, EBITDA amounted to EUR 1.256 billion. On page 8, you see the breakdown by businesses.

As you can see, the regulated businesses, particularly water and electric distribution, account for the larger share. You see that also all the other business lines are contributing positively, which lead to an increase of EBITDA year-on-year of 8.7%. I'm proceeding very quickly on the contribution of the various business lines because I will dwell on it on the following pages. Anyway, hybrid contributes, as you can see. Water contributes EUR 655, Energy Infrastructure EUR 371, Generation 79.5, Commercial and Trading 80, Environment 63, and Other Businesses 5.5. Then in the table, you see this change in the scope of consolidation to highlight the growth coming from M&A or from organic growth. The like-for-like growth is nevertheless substantial and amounts to 6.5%.

Let's now move on to page 9, where you see the details about the various business lines. First of all, water. As we said, the water contributes with EUR 655 million to EBITDA, up 6.7% on 2020. All the entities in this area contribute positively to this result, with the only exception of the equity accounted water companies that we commented on during last year already. This performance is mainly due to the financial depreciation method used for these equity accounted water companies, particularly the ones in Tuscany, which justifies this negative figure. In the water business, I would like to mention a specific deal. For instance, in the water area, we also include the auction that was awarded to Acea in consortium with Ascopiave and Iren.

Five ATEM concessions, with two in Abruzzo, two in Molise, and one in Campania. The closing is expected during the year. The actual transaction started, or actually, the auction was awarded in December 2021. The operational efficiency that has involved all the entities of the group accounts for the main growth driver. As for Acea Ato 2, I can say that this company has been investing on this area, which has contributed to the improvement of the overall performance. Moving on to page 10. We here see energy infrastructure business line. Again, EBITDA has increased by 1%. The amount of gigawatt hours distributed in 2021 is increasing as the number of PODs managed. Electricity distribution offsets the drop in the performance of public lighting business line, which is decreasing slightly.

As for the EBITDA growth of energy infrastructure, the main driver of such growth were investments made to exploit, let's say, the resilience plan that we have in place, and the partnership with Open Fiber, that partnership that has become fully operative in 2021, and we see the result of it. As already pointed out, in 2021, we have invested substantially on installation of e-meters, and we have installed roughly 316,000 of 2G electricity meters. On page 11, we have the generation business that has reported a substantial improvement of performance. EBITDA has grown by 75% year-over-year, reaching EUR 79.5 million in 2021. The main drivers of such growth are price and volume effects.

The effect of the energy market prices and increased volumes of hydroelectric production account for the main drivers of this performance, as I said. We already mentioned the ongoing deal with Equitix in the field of photovoltaic. Such partnership will cover 105 MW of total installed capacity, 46 of which qualify for various feed-in tariffs, and 59 account for newly built plants. As for photovoltaic, the improvement of performance led to an increase to EUR 5.3 million, versus EUR 2.8 million in the previous year. That is accounted for by the change in scope. On the 31st of December 2021, we reached 73 MW at total capacity, and on the slide you see the breakdown by the entities that are part of it.

Let's now move on to the next Slide 12, where you can see the performance of commercial and trading. Here again, EBITDA has grown by 11%, with reaching EUR 80.5 million. The main drivers are reported on the bottom part of the slide. You see, for instance, an increase in the volume of electricity sold, reaching 8,256 GWh in 2021, and then, that is, that amounted to an increase of 30% in the free market. Also, the number of customers grew by 11%, roughly, again, in the free market, 11.7% to be precise. Similar increase applies to the total gas sold and the number of gas customers, that reported a growth of 7.5%.

The reduced margin on enhanced protection market, mainly due to the reduction of the customer base, amounted to EUR 2.8 million. Now I would like to move on to page 13.

Giuseppe Gola
CEO, ACEA

Here we can see the performance of the environmental business. In this case, too, we recorded a growing economic performance versus 2020, +27% in terms of EBITDA. In 2021, the EBITDA is EUR 73.7 million. Here, our main drivers allow us to describe the performance. That is, an increase in tons of waste treated, as you see on the slide, and also the quantity of electricity sold from 320 to 328, giving us +2.5%. Not only do we have these good results related to physical quantities, volumes, but also to a price increase recorded in the period.

Here, there is also a change in the scope of consolidation because of acquisitions made in 2020 and 2021. Those made in 2021 actually account for in 2021, but MEG and Deco, the acquisitions, that were made in the last part of 2021 only affected partially the results of 2021, as you can see, the economic effects on the slide. There is a slight reduction of margin related to the impairment of DEM up EUR -2.8 million because of the fire, which occurred at the end of 2021. We have already pointed out the change in the scope of consolidation you see in the box on the right.

That is the acquisitions that we made during the year. Page 14, EBIT growing by 8.6% from EUR 535 million- EUR 581 million in 2021. Net profit is growing in a more than proportional manner versus EBIT from EUR 204.9 million- EUR 313.3 million, and tax rate is stable. As to the items below the EBITDA, we recorded an increase of depreciations for two reasons, because of investments made in different business areas and increase in the scope of consolidation, and impairments are related to greater volumes and greater revenues recorded.

Let's now move on to this slide on page 15, where we can see in detail the investments and CapEx made in 2021. Now, the greatest concentration of CapEx is related to regulated businesses. 83% of water and energy distribution with a year-on-year growth of 5%. These are the two regulated businesses. As to water, EUR 44 million with a total of investments of EUR 500 million, which are mainly related to repair and expansion of water and sewer pipes, extraordinary maintenance of plants and networks.

Let me remind you that in this business we have a change in the scope of consolidation because of the acquisition of SII Terni in 2021, but also related to our distribution of gas in the gas distribution business at EUR 2.5 million. Energy infrastructure decrease investments by EUR 12 million, but it is still important in terms of investments made in the electricity business. EUR 275 million of investments are made in the year related to the upgrade of the grid resilience plan with work on secondary substations and medium voltage and low voltage network and installations of 2G in the generation business. We see a decrease by EUR 16 million, total investments EUR 23 million in the year.

Here, I'd like to point out that this is net of investments made within the partnership with the Equitix, which, of course, represents an amount of around EUR 15 million. Commercial and trading, an increase of investments by EUR 5 million, with total investment amounting to EUR 49 million, related to the e-mobility projects, and then the acquisition of customers. As to the environment, investments are growing by EUR 13 million. Total investments made here by the group are EUR 36 million. Investments are mainly related to most of the plants of the group, in particular, Orvieto, San Vittore, Aprilia, and other plants the group owns.

Let me now move on to the slide on page 16. We can now here see the details of the cash flow. As we mentioned before at the beginning of the presentation, the CEO mentioned the absorption effects related to the system charges, which had an effect on the working capital. With the exception of this, the cash flow of the Group is in line with the previous year. Now, sorry, EUR 95 million is the change in the working capital, which is net of the equity stake or the funding of the government.

From here on, the other items which absorb the cash flow, financial cost, EUR 86 million, change in provisions, EUR 127 million, M&A is EUR 69 million, and so on, as you can see on page 16. Let's now move on to page 17, where you can see the net financial position, EUR 3.977 billion, as at the 31st of December 2021. We have already mentioned that this net debt is expressed in continuity with the data of the previous years. The net debt, according to ESMA, is EUR 3.988 billion, with a difference of EUR 11 million, which is related to the exclusion of long-term financial loans. The structured debt is sound.

Fixed rate accounts for 86% of the debt, an average cost of 1.42%, average maturity five years. Only 2% of our debt has a maturity within the end of 2022. As we said at the beginning of the presentation, in January 2021, we issued the first green bond of the group, with a value of EUR 900 million in two tranches. The first one, EUR 300 million, at 0% rate, maturing in September 2025. Second tranche, EUR 600 million, at 0.25% rate, maturity 2030. Rating stable outlook by Fitch Ratings, BBB+. Moody's is stable outlook, Baa2. Thank you very much. We'll now start with the Q&A session.

Uh, this is the chorus caller operator. We can now start, uh, the Q&A session. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one on, uh, when on the phone. To, uh, be, uh, removed from, uh, the question queue, uh, press star followed by two. We kindly ask you to use the handsets when asking question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time.

Javier Suarez
Vice Head of European Equity and Credit Research, Mediobanca

First question by Javier Suarez from Mediobanca. Good evening. Thank you very much for your presentation. I've got several questions. First, a question about the guidance on debt for EUR 2.53 billion in 2022. I think the consensus is around the EUR 4 billion, and that was the guidance that you provided during your latest presentation in October 2020. My question is the following: Can you please make us understand better why the debt is increased to EUR 4.2 billion-EUR 4.3 billion from the consensus figure of EUR 4 billion? And what was missed by the consensus figure? Is it a matter of working capital, or is there additional M&As that we should take into consideration? If you can elaborate on that debt, it would be very useful for us.

Second question refers to the general context that we are experiencing an unprecedented energy crisis. I would like to know whether your guidance for 2022, what does it factor in. I would like to understand what kind of impact a very high energy prices could have on your supply activity, and what you are currently seeing your guidance in terms of a guidance for 2022 as a consequence of such a high energy price. Can you tell us something about the hedge strategy going forward. Third question about water business in particular. What is the impact on the profitability of the water business could higher energy or higher electricity price have.

Stefano Songini
Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability, ACEA

Thank you very much, Javier. I'll try and provide you with some color. The guidance that we provided takes into consideration what the situation was at the end of 2021, and then i n 2022. We closed 2021 with roughly EUR 4 billion, slightly below four, EUR 4 billion, so EUR 3.977 billion of net debt, which means that we have to see what happens in 2022. In 2021, we had an overall cash absorption of roughly EUR 450 million, as you can see on the cash flow slide. Compared with our estimates, we did slightly worse because of the impact of the working capital, because as I said, we had a greater absorption of working capital as a consequence of the reduction of revenues and the cash ins that we have in our commercial business. That's why we started from this to develop our guidance, considering the cash absorption for the following year.

In the following year, we expect a similar trend, because the free cash flow, which means EBITDA minus working capital minus CapEx, is expected to improve by roughly EUR 550 million. Then all the other items that absorb cash will remain flat. As for M&As, we are considering a positive impact deriving from the transaction with Equitix, which would lead to a reduction of debt for roughly EUR 170 million, and the cash absorption for new M&A transaction that we estimate currently at around EUR 100 million. Clearly, it's always very difficult to make accurate and fully reliable estimates. This is why we have provided this range of EUR 100 million difference that is included in our guidance. Taking all this into account, we would be in the neighborhood of EUR 4.2 billion.

Our range is between EUR 4.2 billion-EUR 4.3 billion to have some flexibility when it comes to M&As, because as I said, we have already closed the gas acquisition from concessions from A2A, roughly EUR 36 million. We are considering other targets, for instance, in the environmental business that may lead to M&As that we have estimated at around EUR 100 million, but could be higher if we close all the deals that we are working on. This is the trend between 2021 and 2022. If you consider our plan, well, our strategic plan, of course, we experienced a greater or higher cash absorption because of higher CapEx than factored in in our CapEx and higher cash absorption because of M&A.

Overall, these two items led to greater cash absorption, roughly EUR 150 million. There is another element that contributed to EUR 30 million higher net debt due to the DPR 16 that had not been factored in our strategic plan. These three items justify the higher net debt by roughly EUR 200 million that were not there in the strategic plan. Higher dividends as well, because we are paying out higher dividends than we had factored in our strategic plan because of higher profits, and our payout has remained unchanged. Overall, better performance, which inevitably implies higher taxes. This is another item that is closely related to the improvement of our net profit, which has not been factored in our plan. Higher taxes, higher dividends, more CapEx and more M&A transactions.

That's it. Your second question about the energy prices and the high energy prices, how they impact on our guidance. Well, the volatility of electricity prices does not have a substantial impact on our guidance. Please consider that 85% of our business is regulated, and therefore, there's no impact by higher energy prices. As for our commercial business, we expect a limited impact in 2022. Consider that we have adopted stringent policies when it comes to the purchase of energy, and consider we hedge such purchases. Most of the energy that we are going to sell in 2022 was purchased 12, 18 months earlier. If you remember, in 2020 we announced that we suffered a negative impact because of the drop in consumption and the drop in energy prices.

We have been forced to sell energy on the market at a lower price than we had paid for it, because of the pandemic. Clearly, in 2022, we are not going to experience this issue. In the longer term, we will have to decide how to approach energy purchases for 2023 and following years. There, we are considering all the available options, and we are certainly very, very cautious all the time. The commercial business contributes to our EBITDA by roughly 6-7%, so a negligible contribution. That's why in the mid-long term, we do not expect a substantial impact deriving from higher energy prices, and I do not expect significant risks. Anyway, we'll be reporting on this later on when we'll be disclosing our strategic plan.

As for the water business, until a few weeks ago, we could say that the water business was not impacted upon by energy prices. ARERA set a cap. The authority set a cap. Again, being very cautious and being very conservative to reduce our exposure to risk in 2022, we can say that we will not suffer any impact, because our energy companies had already fixed the price for energy for 2022. The price that our water companies pay will be lower than the cap set by the authority. In the following years, we will see. We have to wait and see. We're still trying to understand whether this cap will be remaining in the following years too or not. Please remember, however, that the introduction of the cap hasn't changed the charges on the energy.

In other words, you cannot report margins. Then the tariff factors in only the real cost of energy.

Javier Suarez
Vice Head of European Equity and Credit Research, Mediobanca

That was very interesting. Thank you very much.

Enrico Bartoli
Senior Analyst, Stifel Europe

Next, question from Enrico Bartoli. Good evening. Good evening. Thank you, very much, and thank you for taking my questions. I have, first of all, a general question, about the evolution of the, EBITDA for business units for 2022. There are different moving parts, different regulation, in the water business and in energy distribution. As for waste, you mentioned an increase, of revenues because of, higher volumes collection. Is this trend, going to continue? And then, the increase in prices, by WTE and power generation. Power generation has grown considerably in, 2021. What can we expect in 2022, considering, that you have, a hydroelectric production, and, whether, the, decree approved by the government, last week will have an impact on your revenues?

Second question about the JV with Equitix and the current situation in Ukraine. There is a strong push to the installation of renewable source of energy because of the crisis. Do you expect that this JV can accelerate its works in terms of installation of new capacity? Another question about the dividend. You said that the dividend is slightly above your expectations and the expectations of the market. In 2022, will this level be taken as floor, and can we expect a continuation of the positive trend in terms of, you know, absolute values of the EPS?

Giuseppe Gola
CEO, ACEA

Now the guidance for EBITDA for 2022, we give it at an aggregate level. We can give only some, you know, quality comments, not quantity comments.

No, sure. I just want to know what are the moving parts below that guidance you gave us. I don't want the details, of course. Thank you. Now, as I said at the beginning, a fundamental issue that has an impact on the 2022 guidance is the new regulation on energy distribution. Well, this will have an impact around EUR 26 million, 2% of our growth, which is impacted upon because of that. As to the other moving parts, we expect that in the water business, we will not be able to have the same performance we had in 2021. We'll have a lower growth.

Whereas for other businesses, we can expect the growth to be similar to that of 2021, both in terms of non-regulated businesses and also generation and waste treatment businesses. Well, I say this taking into account different issues. As to generation, if I'm not wrong, you were mentioning the impact of the newly issued decree of the government. Well, in our case, the impact of that decree is quite limited. Out of the hydroelectric plants we have, only one is impacted upon by the decree. We estimated that impact may lead to a reduction of margins by EUR 6 million. Now, we may have some lower volumes in the field of hydroelectric production.

We expect that going forward, the weather to be a bit more rainy, and we may recover. In the first three months of the year, rainfalls were certainly more limited. As to the waste business, we expect growth to be similar to that of 2021. Here, the drivers are going to be certainly a price effect, but also M&As activities that we are continuing to look for. Now, first of all, we will have the full results of the acquisitions made at the end of 2021, and then we hope to be making new acquisitions in 2022.

We have the full effect of the acquisitions made at the end of 2021, and then the partial impact of those that we are going to make in 2022. As to commercial energy, or commercial and trading, sorry. Now, we expect the growth trend continues with a contribution in 2022 that will come not so much from commodity, but by share innovation, so energy efficiency. We are working on the support to the so-called Superbonus. Acea Innovation is a contractor for that Superbonus, which then generates a margin, so that will be accounted for in 2022. This is the overall picture. As to your question about the photovoltaic and what we expect from it.

Now, considering the difficult situation the country and all of Europe is going through because of the energy crisis, well, we hope that at least there will be a speedier, faster authorization process for renewable energy projects. We have plans that can be implemented as soon as the authorization process becomes faster. If this occurs, then we can expect an acceleration here. Now, in March we can say that if that acceleration occurs, well, this means that we can make more investments during the year, but in terms of more energy produced, well, these effects will be accounted for in 2023. It's very unlikely that they will be recorded structurally in 2022.

We believe that we can do this within our JV with Equitix. As to your question about your dividend, the result of 2021 is a net profit result. It doesn't have any one-off for 2022. We expect and we do not give a guidance of net profit, but we believe that the growth of EBITDA carries along a growth of net profit. If the net profit goes up, also the dividend will go up. Yes, the dividend can be considered a floor, the one that we have now. Stefano Gamberini, next question.

Stefano Gamberini
Senior Equity Analyst, Equita

I got several questions, too. First question, I would like to try and understand what opportunities may arise in Rome. If you can summarize the projects that can be soon implemented, especially in the waste area. What can expect in the next few months or years. Is there any novelty? You mentioned this business plan that can be disclosed in June. Can you give us an idea, general idea, what the main businesses that you are focusing on? I mean, waste or electricity distribution, are these the areas where you expect to grow most? What about the water business? What kind of opportunities do you see there? Because I got the impression that CapEx is now becoming stable around EUR 900 million per year and EUR 100 million M&A.

I got the impression that this has been the level reached over the past couple of years. To better understand the evolution of the EUR 26 million come from electricity distribution and then additional 20 from the deconsolidation of the photovoltaic business. We can expect a growth of EUR 80 million-EUR 85 million in terms of growth, if I stick to your guidance, then of course, if I made the math correctly. My last question refers to cash generation. I'm not sure about what you reported on Slide 16. What is that fund difference? Can you elaborate a little bit on this fund delta, as you call it? How is it generated? Over the past three years, we have seen roughly EUR 110 million-EUR 120 million cash absorption.

Is this something that we should see recurring over the next few years as well? Thank you very much.

Stefano Songini
Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability, ACEA

Well, as for your first question, our approach to business is not necessarily a consequence of the changes in the local governance. Particularly as far as waste is concerned, I believe this is one of the key areas that we'll be focusing on. We aim at increasing our waste treatment capacity, and particularly so in our area, let's say, that is at the center of Italy. This capacity, additional capacity that we managed to create, could be used also for Rome, for the city of Rome or other areas.

For instance, the mechanical biological treatment plant in Abruzzo is the largest plant in the area that covers the Abruzzo region, but also treats part of the waste that is generated in Rome. Clearly enough, we may develop the business further to serve the city of Rome, but this has nothing to do with the change in the local government. This applies to all our businesses. For instance, in the photovoltaic area, we will be developing photovoltaic in the sunniest areas of Italy. And this, of course, can then be used also for the city of Rome. If we developed a four-year, five-year strategic plan, well, I would say that the strategic plan would be following up what we have done so far.

Our idea is that of drafting a 10-year strategic plan, and this is a complex process. We are considering where we are going to be in 2024 and 2025. That will be the traditional strategic plan. We are also considering where we expect to be in 10 years, so with a longer time framework. In other words, we're trying and developing, let's say, the basis for the future of this company over the next decade. We're not going to add new business lines, but we're going to confirm the ones that we already have. For instance, the waste business line that is key to us.

We expect to focus on renewables, and particularly photovoltaic energy sources, to speed up the process, not only in terms of development of new plants, but also in terms of service provided to the retail market. We expect this to be the main evolution of the market going forward. The relationship between producers and consumers in Italy will change, will evolve. In the commercial and trading area, we'll be focusing on added value services, so not just commodities, for instance. As for the regulated businesses, well, it is difficult to think of extending the scope of our water business in our strategic plan, even though we are always ready to extend our footprint in the water business.

It's difficult to factor this in our plan, because you cannot grow through traditional M&As, for instance, but only by grasping opportunities that local governments may grant to a player like Acea. It's impossible to make forecasts in this area. As for electricity distribution, we'll be considering the relationship between the investments made and the return on the investments made. Consider that the traditional network and the new services, particularly e-mobility, need substantial investments. We'll be drafting a plan that is very well-balanced and takes into consideration our ability to make such investments. Certainly cannot say today that there will be incredible novelties in the new plan, but definitely the longer timeframe considered will make it a different plan than the previous one. Sorry, if I may, I would like to add something.

The 127 million fund delta or difference are mainly due to 86 million impairments, that is, rolling, plus the provisions, and 40 million is mainly due to the pensions linked to the turnover that has been going on for a couple of years now. Over the past two years, the company has adopted a pension mechanism that had an impact of 40 million, as I said. That was the main item. Then you asked a question about our EBITDA guidance. In 2021, our EBITDA grew by roughly 100 million, and we have to consider that, if everything goes smoothly in 2022, these 100 million should be there in 2022 as well. 26 million will be accounted for by distribution work and the rest by the deconsolidation of the photovoltaic business.

In so doing, we will be exactly in the guidance we provided. Just a very quick follow-up question. The delta fondi, as you call it, the impairment fund, you consider this on top of the deterioration of the working capital, also an increase of such funds. Well, the two items that I mentioned, as I said, the impairment and these pensions, but particularly impairments, had the major impact on this delta fund. The policy that we adopted for pensions will remain unchanged also in the following years. My answer is that we expect a similar absorption also in 2022. Anyway, I didn't mention any worsening of the working capital for 2022. I said that working capital will remain stable.

This is to increase also to consider also the increase of revenues of the commercial and trading business that is inevitably due, of course, to higher energy prices, that inevitably leads to higher working capital. Overall, we expect that the working capital absorption in 2022 will be in line with the previous year and not increasing. Thank you very much.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Next, question by Emanuele Oggioni. Good evening. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a few questions to ask. The first one, I'd like to have an update on the projects which might see you involved within the PNRR plan. Can you give us an update, or do we have to wait for the presentation of the business plan? A question about the scope of consolidation. You clarified what is going to be deconsolidated, the solar business. Or are you including or not the acquisition of the stake of part of the activity of A2A concessions? And what do you expect from that in terms of EBITDA?

In a recent interview, you mentioned your interest in the electricity distribution. I'd like to know something more about it. As for commercial and trading, perhaps somebody has already asked a question about the outlook of margins for 2022. I guess you are already covered there, but I'd like to know, would they have a guidance for the performance of this business unit, considering that the market is showing a kind of a natural consolidation because of the you know, default of small to medium-size operators and retailers of electricity, which leads to a natural consolidation of the industry. Is that something that you are looking at in terms of customer acquisition? Something about your organic growth.

Are you seeing a natural migration or a more accentuated non-customer migration that are still within the enhanced protection market, which spend more than customers within the free market? The situation has totally changed. Are you looking at this trend, or are you seeing this trend? That is, acquisitions of new customers or migration of customers from the enhanced protection market to the free market of electricity. Then again, business retail business, the cost to serve in 2021, and how has this evolved versus 2020?

Giuseppe Gola
CEO, ACEA

Now, as to the update of our projects for the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, the PNRR, we put in place task force to be able to keep up with the deadlines envisaged by the national plan.

So far, we are doing well. Last week, GORI, our controlled company, has received some EUR 50 million for the implementation of water structures. These are parts of the funds diverted by the plan to the south of Italy. We are following all of the projects and all of the deadlines, and we are working on water projects. Let me remind you that as far as the PNRR is concerned, we cannot double the capacity of Peschiera Aqueduct, but we can benefit from the funds of the PNRR for the aqueducts serving the City of Rome. We are working also with other companies to submit offers or bids for sewers and sludge treatment plants.

We're also working in the field of waste to be able to receive funds for the development of new plants. Let me remind you, one of the plans is the development of a new plant for the treatment of plastics in Chieti. This is a company that we acquired last year. The same is for electricity distribution and e-mobility. There, we don't have clarity as to the timing and the tenders that are going to be issued. As to the regulated business and for water and distribution, these funds are alternative funds. These are grants which replace our investments, are not part of the calculation of RAB, nor are they part of the calculation of the tariffs.

Your question about the concession of gas that we're going to close by the first half of this year, the concession that we're going to acquire from A2A, it's a very limited part, not meaningful, I'd say. Electricity distribution. I don't know which interview you were referring to. I don't think any of us has stated anything about the concession of electricity distribution. There are no tenders about in that field. Our concession expires in 2030. As to the commercial business, I understand your point about the consolidation of the market. In our forecasts, we are not taking into account this effect, and so we're not taking into account to make non-organic acquisitions of customers. Our expectations are always made on the organic growth of our customers.

Nor do we see a strong acceleration from the enhanced protection market to the free market, despite the increased prices in the enhanced protection market. We see that this will occur in the next few months. The migration of customers from the enhanced protection market in 2021 has been stable or was stable versus previous years. As to the cost to serve, we have never issued a guidance, and so we're not giving a number. But I have to say, the thing is stable.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you.

Operator

I'd like to remind you that if you wish to ask a question, you can press star followed by one at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no more questions. Thank you very much then. Thank you for attending. Of course, the IR is available for further questions. Thank you very much and goodbye.

Powered by