ACEA S.p.A. (BIT:ACE)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2025

Nov 13, 2025

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. This is the CORSCO conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the results as of the end of September of the ACEA Group. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be the opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal and operate by pressing * and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dario Michi, Head of Investor Relations of ACEA.

Dario Michi
Head of Investor Relations, ACEA Group

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and thank you very much for joining the presentation of the results as of the end of September 2025 of the ACEA Group. Francesco Ragni, CFO, and Ms. Valentina Battaglia, Deputy CFO and Head of Planning, will go through the presentation. I will give the floor now to Pier Francesco for the presentation.

Pier Francesco Ragni
CFO, ACEA Group

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. As usual, we shall start our presentation by considering the regulatory and market environment. In the water business, we point out the update of the two-year update of the tariffs, whereas in the electricity business, we would like to point out the lack of activation of the trigger with reference to the remuneration rate of the capital for 2023, which remains at 5.6%. As to the price of commodities, the price of electricity and gas in the first nine months of 2025 recorded an increase of 14% and 20% respectively versus the same period last year. As to the interest rates, I'd like to confirm the trend which was recorded in the first six months of the year with a decrease of rates versus 2024, both in the long and short term of the curve.

Let's now move on to slide number four of the presentation. As to the main highlights of the first nine months of 2025, the results show a strong growth of economic items and confirm the soundness of the financial structure of the group. First of all, I point out that in line with IFRS 5, the results of ACEA Energia, which is subject to disposal, have been reclassified as discontinued operations. Moreover, so as to have the possibility to compare data, we have shown pro forma results simulating the deconsolidation of discontinued operations and of Acquedotto del Fiore in the first nine months of 2024. Pro forma EBITDA reaches EUR 1.84 billion, growing by 8% versus the first nine months of 2024.

The increase of recurrent pro forma EBITDA, adjusted to the changes in the perimeter, which you'll see later on, stands at 10%, which is driven mainly by the growth of the water Italy business, grids, and public lighting and generation. The contribution of regulatory activity of the consolidated EBITDA is 95% of the total. The net profit of the first nine months of 2025 is equal to EUR 415 million, up 46%, and among other components, is driven by the capital gain of the disposal of the high voltage network, about EUR 109 million. The recurrent net profit grows by 8% year on year, following the dynamic recorded operating level. CapEx growth of grants grow by 6% versus the first nine months of 2024, announced at EUR 1 billion.

The operating cash flow is positive for EUR 19 million, allowing us to maintain a sound financial structure with a Net Financial Position, or financial structure, EBITDA pro forma ratio equal to 3.39 times. That ratio takes into account the future cashing of the disposal of ACEA Energia and the cashing of the disposal of the high voltage network, which occurred in September. Slide 5, we recorded the main indicators of the dynamics recorded in the first nine months of the year, which, as I said, showed a strong growth trend. As to the EBITDA, ACEA recorded a growth of 10% versus the result of 2024, adjusted for one-offs and change in the scope. CapEx net of grants are EUR 843 million, of which EUR 67 million is related to activities of businesses which are to be disposed.

Net of the perimeter of ACEA Energia, which is to be disposed, investments, CapEx, regulated CapEx represented 95% of the total net profit, which, as I said, includes the contributions of businesses that will be disposed, grows by 8% on a recurring basis and reflects the very good operating performance. The net financial position moves from EUR 4.944 billion as of 31 December 2024 to EUR 5.83 billion at the end of September 2025.

Operator

I do apologize, but I can no longer hear the speaker. I do apologize, but I do not hear the speaker.

Pier Francesco Ragni
CFO, ACEA Group

The net financial position pro forma to take into account the asset rotation, as described in the footnote, moves from EUR 4.343 billion as at the 31 December 2024 to EUR 4.693 billion as at the end of September 2026, with a ratio debt/EBITDA, which is 3.39 times.

The EBITDA in the first nine months of 2025 has grown, which is due to tariffs and the operating activities of water, and it was also driven by the grid operations, driven by the RAB, and the growth of the results of generation, and also because of prices. On the right of the slide, you see the main one-offs and changes in the scope, and these amount to EUR 27 million for 2024 and related to mainly past tariff items related to the period 2022-2023. In 2025, changes in perimeter amount to EUR 15 million and related to the incentives for quality in the water business. Now, Mr. Ragni is reconnected. As to the recurrent net profit, slide 7, the growth versus the first nine months of 2025 is due to the operating performance, which contributes positively for EUR 26 million.

That effect is partly offset by the financial management because of lower financial receipts, because of the reduction of rates. As to the EBITDA, on the right, you see the detail of the one-off components. As to slide number eight of the presentation, now, considering also the contribution of ACEA Energia in the first nine months of 2025, we have invested around EUR 1 billion, up 6% versus 2024. Such investments for about 89% is related to regulated businesses of water, grids, and the environment. The net of ACEA Energia, which is subject to disposal, the contribution of regulated businesses to CapEx amounts to 95%. Out of that EUR 1 billion of investment, EUR 167 million were financed by the cashing of public grants.

On the slide, you see the activity carried out in each sector, like the widening and update of water pipes and sewers, and the upgrade of the grid for electricity distribution. Slide number nine, here you see the cashing solution of the first nine months of 2025, which is around EUR 140 million, and it's negatively affected by the changes in working capital related particularly to high receivables and the network balancing, which we expect to be absorbed in the last quarter. It is also affected by regulatory receivables, which is to be absorbed in the fourth quarter. We have to underline, referring to working capital, that in the third quarter of 2025, ACEA generated cash for about EUR 66 million, thanks to the efficient management of commercial receivables and payables.

To be more transparent, as we did when we presented the results for the first six months, we represented in a distinct manner the contribution of the company's consolidated equity. That contribution is EUR 30 million versus EUR 9 million since 2024. This clarifies better the dynamic of the changes in funds, which reflects the reclassification of ACEA Energia among discontinued operations. I will not dwell on CapEx, charges, taxes, and dividends, as these items can be directly interpreted. As to M&As, we need to underline EUR 210 million represented by the cashing from TERNA for the disposal of the high voltage network, equal to EUR 227 million. Now, let's move on to slide number 10, the financial structure. Here you can see that the average cost of debt, as at the 30th of September 2025, stands at 2.04% versus 2.16% at the end of 2024.

The cost of debt is positively affected by the reduction of variable rates connected to the EURIBOR for the part of debt which is variable and which is equal to 20% of the total at the end of the third quarter. However, let me tell you that in the third quarter of 2025, we took out three bilateral bank lines for a total of EUR 350 million, which at the end of September was reimbursed, the green bond amounting to EUR 300 million that was issued in 2025. I leave the floor to Ms. Battaglia now. Slide number 11, we see the main KPI of the water Italy business. Let me remind you that the results of the first nine months' results were expressed pro forma so as to have the possibility to compare the data.

Valentina Battaglia
Deputy CFO and Head of Planning, ACEA Group

In the first nine months of 2025, the recurrent EBITDA adjusted, mainly because of the incentives for contractual and technical quality, goes up by EUR 42 million plus 8%. That is due to tariff growth guided by CapEx and by the increase of results of consolidated companies consolidated at equity, and also because of operating efficiency. Net of public grants investments grow by EUR 29 million, up 7% year on year, and related mainly to operations on aqueducts and water cleaning plants and maintenance of grids. Net of investments related to Acquedotto del Fiore, the growth year on year is EUR 61 million, that is up 15%. Let me now move on to slide number 10. Here you see the main KPI related to the grid and public network.

Despite the reduction of the WAT by 40 basis points as of the 1st of January 2025, the recurrent EBITDA of the business goes up by EUR 29 million, up 9%. Such an increase is due mainly to investments made, that is, growth in RAB, and also this is due to the update of the reevaluation of the RAB starting in 2025. Investments net of public grants, around EUR 210 million, are slightly decreasing versus the previous year, whereas investments growth of public grants are growing. In the environment area, net of one-off, the EBITDA is slightly increasing because of the greater margins associated to WTEs. The investments decreased by EUR 28 million versus the previous year, and this is mainly due to the revamping operations on the WTE of TERNA in 2024. Let me now move on to slide 14. You see here the results of the generation business unit results.

The recurrent EBITDA grows by EUR 17 million, and this is due mainly by the favorable energy scenario and the greater generation, mainly to the hydroelectric and photovoltaic business. In detail, the energy produced grows by 24% from 485 to 602 gigawatt-hour, thanks to an increase of 42 gigawatt-hour in the hydroelectric production and 71 gigawatt-hour in the photovoltaic production. Investments in the first nine months of 2025 amount to EUR 21 million, growing by EUR 6 million versus previous year. I will give back the floor to Mr. Ragni for the update of the guidance.

Pier Francesco Ragni
CFO, ACEA Group

Thank you very much, Valentina. Now, considering the strong growth experienced in the first nine months of 2025, we have reviewed, as you have seen from the press release, the guidance of the EBITDA for 2025.

The new guidance shows a growth of the EBITDA performer 2025 between 8%-10%, starting from the restated result of 2024 of EUR 1.201 million versus plus 6%-8% announced in June 2025. The restated 2024 result was calculated starting from the 2024 EBITDA of EUR 1.428 million communicated last March, adjusted to exclude the contribution of ACEA Energia object of disposal, and on the contrary, add up the contribution of the high voltage network disposed solely to TERNA, but included here in the first nine months of 2024. Now, as to CapEx, the guidance is EUR 1.6 billion, of which EUR 1.2 billion net of public grants. As to performer debt/EBITDA ratio, the guidance is confirmed and expects a range between 3.4 and 3.5 times. Such range has been determined, including the debt and the cashing of the price of ACEA Energia expected in 2026.

This is the end of the presentation. This is the correspondence with the conference operator. We can now start the Q&A session. If you have a question to ask, you can press * and 1 on your telephone. If you want to get out of the question queue, you may press * and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. If you have a question to ask, please press * and 1. Now, the first question is by Francesco Sala with Banca Akros. You have the floor.

Francesco Sala
Equity Analyst, Banca Akros

Now, good evening and thank you very much for the presentation and congratulations for your results. A couple of questions. The first one on the working capital. Can you tell us where is going to be the change for the full year? You said that you expect a reduction in the fourth quarter. Can you tell us something about it?

Now, I'd like to know something about the closing results after the disposal of ACEA Energia to Plenitude. How can this change the results? The third question. I'd like to have an update of the incinerator in Rome. Any piece of news there? I'd like to know whether in the next few months you are going to give us an update of the business plan.

Pier Francesco Ragni
CFO, ACEA Group

Thank you. Good afternoon, Francesco. Let me answer these questions. As to the update of the business plan, we are working on it. The goal is that of providing an update within the first quarter of next year. As to the WTE, we are going on with our own land. As to ACEA Energia, we expect the closing as of the beginning of the year next year. The company is already among the discontinued operations, so there will be no impact on the EBITDA.

There will be an impact on net profit, which will be offset by the money that we cash in and the capital gain that we cash in from this transaction. We will give you the details after the closing of the deal because there are a number of calculations which are to be made and will be defined at the moment of the closing of the deal. As to the other question, I will hand the floor over to Valentina.

Valentina Battaglia
Deputy CFO and Head of Planning, ACEA Group

As to the networking capital, we expect a neutral trend, a neutral dynamic. In the last quarter, we expect a similar trend that we observed in the last quarter of 2024. Also, as to the equalization receivables or equalization credits, we expect them to be absorbed by the end of the year. This is the view that we have for December.

Francesco Sala
Equity Analyst, Banca Akros

Thank you very much.

Javier Suárez
Analyst, Mediobanca

The next question is by Javier Suárez with Mediabanca. Good evening to you all. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions to ask. First of all, the 2025 guidance. I have a question which is more strategic in nature. When you presented your last business plan, you talked about a growth of the company around 5%. Now, looking at the results, the company is going through a stronger structural growth versus what you indicated in the business plan. I would like to know something about it more qualitatively rather than quantitatively. As to the guidance, I would like to have an indication for 2026 guidance. Maybe you can tell us something about 2026. In 2025, your guidance for net income, what will it be? As to the working capital, I would like to know something more strategic. What are the management actions that the company is adopting to reduce the net capital, net working capital absorption?

Pier Francesco Ragni
CFO, ACEA Group

Thank you very much for these questions. I'd like, I try to answer the first two questions together. Now, versus the business plan expectations, we are experiencing a stronger growth. With the new business plan, we shall update the figures. As to the trend that we expect for 2026, it's in the water business, considering the consultation document that was published, which does not show strong work changes. Also, tariffs have already been approved. We expect tariffs to be in line with what we have experienced or have seen in 2025. In the energy business, there was no activation of the trigger, and therefore, the regulatory return is stable.

As to the growth trend of the EBITDA and the update of the numbers, we shall provide indications when we update the business plan. As to the guidance, we do not provide a guidance on the net income, but we can say that we do not expect changes, big changes for recurrent operations. Therefore, the net income should not basically be or will fall in line with the guidance that we have given for other items. Now, as to other activities, we are working on credit collections on customers, activation of all of the capabilities and levels that we have to cash in the money. What affects the networking capital are the profiles of cashing of the per-equation bills or equalization bills. Now, in the first nine months, we see the normal results related to the network equalizations.

Here, the regulatory factor has an effect. Let me also tell you that we are seeing a greater stability of the networking capital in the year, and I think it's going to be as stable as stable going forward. This is what I can tell you, generally speaking.

Roberto Letizia
Analyst, Equita

Thank you very much. The next question by Roberto Letizia with Equita. Good afternoon, and thank you very much for the presentation. I'd like to have an update on the electricity or energy distribution concessions. I'd like to know something about it. Do you have indications about it? Do you know something about the timing when this is going to occur? I'd like also to have an update on the update of the debt rating on the part of agencies. Is there a moment when you will rediscuss the rating with the agencies? What are the priorities in that case? What are the main interventions? CapEx, M&As, remuneration of shareholders, all of the three. Can you give us indications about it? Considering the reorganization and after you get out of the retail business, what are the priorities? What is the focus of the management team? Is there going to be a review or change in the governance of the company? Are there options opening up in the water business? For instance, I do not know, Aqueduct of Pesquera. I just want to know what is next for ACEA in terms of its structure. A couple of technical questions. First, why is the tax rate higher, which is now 32.5%? What kind of considerations are to be made going forward? Are there going to be possible contributions for ACEA in relation to data centers?

Pier Francesco Ragni
CFO, ACEA Group

Thank you very much, Roberto.

Now, as to the extension of the concessions for energy grids, this is a recurring question, which is usually asked when we meet. We are waiting for the authority to decide. As I have always said, whatever is decided by the authority is something on which we rely. The asset rotation that we have made after the disposal of the high-voltage network and the disposal of ACEA Energia to come allows us to focus on our own main business, increasing investments in the water business and in the environment sector. As to M&As, when we speak of M&As, we do not look at M&As. Of course, if there are opportunities, we shall pursue them, but we have a growth trend which is related to our own businesses.

You know very well that the water business requires constant investments due to the fact that there is a lower supply of water and higher demand of water, and networks are to be constantly maintained and updated. As to the energy grids, you need to work on the resilience of such grids. Look at what happened in Spain, in Turin, in Bergamo. Hence, we shall focus our efforts there. As to the dialogue with the rating agency, this dialogue is ongoing. Of course, I would want to see the new business plan. Considering that our business now is 90% regulated, we shall use the greater financial leverage to focus constantly on RAB and on the environment. Now, as to the governance, I don't know what to say. The disposal of the retail business doesn't change anything in terms of our governance.

Of course, we shall see, but I do not have much to say about this. As to the tax rate, this is Valentina speaking. The tax rate is in line with the data of December 2024, which was 32.6%. The tax rates are affected by non-recurrent items, disposals, and one-offs. We expect a realignment of the tax rate to what we had in our business plan, which is also in line with our historical data. As to the question about the data center, I can say that as a manager of the distribution network in Rome, we see the opportunity to strengthen the network and to, of course, serve the needs and demand stimulated by also the data center. This is part of our plans.

Now, as to further opportunity related to the data center business, we are assessing or looking to see whether there are opportunities, but we do not see for the moment specific developments. Now, the data center business at the moment is more concentrated in the north of Italy, where there is greater demand, whereas our water and energy business is more focused in the center and south of Italy. Of course, we shall use our competence and our infrastructures. This is something that we shall evaluate on a case-by-case basis. Now, if you have other questions to ask, please press * and one on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, at the moment, there are no other questions.

Now, there is one follow-up question by Roberto Letizia with Equita. I do apologize. I have a follow-up question to ask something about the JV with Versales.

Can you tell us something about this, the timing, the size of the operation?

Now, this JV is for us an opportunity to extract more value from our plans, recovery and recycling of plastic. Now, we are focusing on mechanical recycling and on polypropylene for food use in terms of recycling. In this case, we are using chemical recycling processes. Now, we are studying the potential of this partnership, and we hope that this will have further developments in the future. Ms. Bracaglia, ladies and gentlemen, at the moment, there are no other questions from the conference call.

Thank you very much for joining in.

If you have any other questions, you can call us directly. Thank you very much.

Operator

This is the call for a conference operator. The conference is now over. You can disconnect your phones. Thank you.

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