Good morning. This is the conference call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Avio full year 2022 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Giulio Ranzo, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning to you all. Thank you for joining the fiscal year 2022 Avio results call. I hope you all have the presentation of our results. I will start from the highlights on page three. Mainly, 2022 ended within the guidance, but with a better long-term visibility than we had anticipated. In fact, we reached the revised guidance that we gave in September, after the sudden surge of the energy costs that you made the call. In the last part of the year, we achieved a better than expected backlog into cash position, which provide a much better long-term visibility than we had anticipated. Profits in 2022 were impacted by an unforeseeable surge in energy costs, which were driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as you very well know.
In the course of the 2022 year, we also reached the successful maiden flight of Vega C and the successful testing of M10, the first liquid oxygen methane engine in Europe that will equip Vega E by 2026. Unfortunately, towards the end of the year, we also suffered the loss of the Vega C second flight. We then performed work with the inquiry commission and defined a return to flight plan, which will have Vega flying by the summer of 2023 and Vega C coming back to flight by the end of the year. In the course of 2022, further delays in the Ariane 6 program were announced by the European Space Agency. Now, the latest information is that the maiden flight of Ariane 6 shall slip towards the end of 2023.
At the same time, the positive aspect was, and unexpected to some extent, a higher than expected order intake in the defense business, which we don't talk about much, typically, but as a result of the overall situation, the defense business started to pick up more rapidly than expected. In the course of the year, we also completed the share buyback program that was voted at the previous shareholders meeting. For the time being, we have provided indication for suspension of the dividends. On page four, we have a summary of the main results, which we compare here not only with the revised guidance we gave in September, but also with the original guidance we gave in March, when we announced the results of 2021, for you to be able to compare.
Backlog reached a record level above EUR 1 billion. The company never reached this level of net of the backlog. Was well ahead of the guidance, which was unchanged between the initial and the revised one. Revenues also was slightly above our expectations. EBITDA reported and adjusted, was affected, as we commented earlier, by the sudden surge in the energy costs, and therefore, reached EUR 21.4 million in terms of EBITDA reported and EUR 27.8 million in EBITDA adjusted. As a consequence of this, also the net income went down to EUR 1.3 million, which was within the revised guidance, but as we expected, obviously impacted by the energy costs.
The positive news on the backlog also came along with a much wealthier net financial position, which reached EUR 74 million, which compared with an average consensus, I would say between EUR 30 million and EUR 60 million and with EUR 57 million of last year. It's important to look at these results in light of the fact that it inevitably, 2022 had an impact on profits due to contingent situations, but the commercial activity went pretty well, providing substantial improvement on the visibility. On page five, we illustrate the flight schedule for 2022 and 2023. As you know, in 2022 we had three Ariane 5 flights and two Vega C flights, one of which unfortunately ended in failure in December.
What we expect to do in 2023 is two more Ariane 5 flights, which would represent the end of the Ariane 5 program, and then the Ariane 6 maiden flight should be by the end of the year, as per the announcements of the European Space Agency. For Vega and Vega C, we should have a Vega flight by the summer, and then a Vega C flight by the end of the year. On page six, a quick recap of the analysis post failure of Vega C second mission. The independent inquiry commission announced the results on March 3, and their conclusions were that the anomaly was caused by an over-erosion of the Zefiro 40 carbon-carbon nozzle throat insert, due to a inhomogeneity and weakness of the material.
In the photograph here, you see, what is the nozzle of the Zefiro 40. It's the part of the motor where all of the hot gases come out from the combustion chamber. It's a very delicate part of the rocket, where hot gases are at more than 3,000 degrees. There is a substantial stress on the material, and unfortunately, the acceptance criteria that were defined to detect defects were unable to properly detect this type of defect. Although they were correctly applied, the defect was such that was impossible to detect.
However, the analysis showed that there is no weakness in the design of the Zefiro 40 nozzle, and this is a very important point because it means that what needs to be done is to fix the execution and the quality of the materials, but not the design. The non-system level behaved nominally, so the safety system did what it was supposed to do and ended in self-destruction mode when the trajectory went beyond the nominal. This is also important because as you know, Vega C is a completely new launcher. It was very important to make sure that the safety system would react as designed.
As a consequence of the above, the failure does not affect the Vega launcher, the previous version of the rocket, which is now slated to fly by the summer. In this way, we will try to fulfill the expectations of the customers to launch their satellites as early as we possibly can. The Vega C launcher will come back to flight by the end of the year, once we introduce a new carbon-carbon material for the nozzle throat insert, which we had already ordered in early 2022 from a different source, and in delivery exactly now by the end of the month.
What we will do between now and the event flight, is we will perform a number of analyses and a static firing test of Zefiro 40 to check the performance of the motor with this new carbon-carbon material, which is by the way, of the same nature that we already use in Zefiro 23 and Zefiro 9. We know the material pretty well. The return to flight plan defined by the commission was then embraced by a European Space Agency announcement of a dedicated program to cover the costs. The costs of the return to flight will be covered by a European Space Agency program with about EUR 30 million, which will be drawn from available resources already subscribed at the last European Space Agency Ministerial Conference.
We believe that this amount is sufficient to perform all activities required for a safe return-to-flight. Nonetheless, we have accounted for any potential risk in the implementation of such plan within our provision for risk in our accounts. I would say that the return-to-flight plan is well-funded and supported and reasonably provisioned that we should be financially safe in its execution. On page seven, 2022 marked a very important strategic achievement for the company with the successful test of the first European liquid oxygen-methane engine, M10. No one else in Europe has successfully fired a methane engine as we have done with 24 firings completed last year, accumulating over 1,300 seconds of successful testing and knowledge.
As a result of that, the Vega E program, you know, the M10 engine will equip Vega program. The Vega E program was fully funded at completion at the European Space Agency Ministerial Conference of 2022, and we will now enter in 2023 on a new set of tests on an improved model of such, of such engines. Why is this particularly relevant? First of all, because this is a new liquid propulsion technology which is way more efficient than previous ones and less expensive in many ways. It requires smaller tanks and cheaper solutions. This engine is completely 3D printed, so it's much easier to manufacture and should provide substantial improvement in performance.
We are particularly satisfied to have been the first in Europe to successfully demonstrate this technology, and we are now eager to make progress on the Vega E program and on the development of such technology towards full fruition. On page eight, we recap something that we talked about in early December immediately after the European Space Agency Ministerial Conference. The Ministerial Conference for Italy and for launchers was particularly successful. Italy decided to invest over EUR 700 million in launchers, something that it has never done in the past. We reported here the funding from Italy on the European Space Agency launchers budget over the last six years.
You see that the funding at Ministerial Conference 2022 is almost 3x what it was in 2016. Italy has taken very seriously that this sector is strategic and has launched and provided funding to launch a number of important initiatives. Some adaptations to Vega C to make sure that we can fly at a higher cadence. Rather than flying 3x-4x a year, we shall be able in, within, let's say, the next couple of years, to upgrade to a launch rate between four and five. Then, substantial funding was also provided for the Vega E program at completion. Together with France, we launched the Vega, the P160C program, which is a performance upgrade of P120C to provide more performance to both Ariane and Vega.
We also have the Space Rider program, funding at completion and a new revolutionary program to start developing a reusable upper stage. This is effectively the possibility for us to enter in the world of reusability with a very innovative approach, whereby the stage to be reused will be the second one, meaning the one that goes to orbit. A very challenging development, but very worth engaging on. Page nine, we report the extraordinary commercial success of Arianespace in the course of 2022. Arianespace has reached sales for Vega and Vega C, representing a record level. At present, I believe there are something more or less in the order of magnitude of 17 launches already booked, something that we have never had in the history of the company.
A very long-term visibility where, as you can see, flights are booked pretty much all the way to 2027, and some of them are still under negotiations and prospects are identified. It is just a question of negotiating them and finalizing the deals, but they should come. In line of principle, there could be the possibility to increase the flight rate. The actual possibility to do so will depend on, also on our ability to execute. We must congratulate with Arianespace for a very, very successful commercial activity all across the European Commission. As a customer, you recall we announced the important Copernicus launches, but also with the Korean Space Agency, KARI, for some export sales, I would say, and other customers, including the Italian government for the Italian constellation.
A remarkable year for the sale of Vega and Vega C. On page 10, we also report the progress on Ariane 6, as it was communicated by the European Space Agency and ArianeGroup in their press briefing in October. They are making progress on their final steps towards the maiden flight with the upper stage, Vinci upper stage testing in Germany. The beginning of the so-called combined tests of the main stage in French Guiana. At the same time, in October, a slippage towards the end of 2023 was announced. This does not surprise us. We recall very well that also for Vega C, in the course of last year when we were about to go for the maiden flight, we had sort of last minute slippages and issues.
This is normal at the end of a development program. Hopefully we should be towards the end of this effort. On page 11, some very, very recent news. Yesterday we finally signed the NextGenerationEU project with the Italian government, which we had already announced partly last year and that we were expecting, but now this are taking shape with co-contractor completion. In particular, two relevant contracts, one, to develop a new transportation, space transportation system completely powered by a liquid oxygen methane technology. This is why the result of 2022 is very important, because it now allows us to enter into a new dimension of development for products of next generation to be able to capture, you know, the customer requirements way better.
What we will do with this program is a couple of experimental launches, one in single stage configuration and one in two stage configuration. This prototype, I would say, of a rocket, this is a technological demonstrator, not yet a commercial product. A technological demonstrator, but will feature substantially innovative technology, not only the liquid oxygen methane engine, but also composite cryogenic tanks, a simplified avionics and a non-pyro separation system. If you want, it's a concentrated effort to put a lot of innovative technology in what hopefully will be a more efficient and competitive transportation system for the future. In parallel, we work on a second project, which was dubbed High Thrust Engine, which has the objective of developing a 60 ton thrust class liquid oxygen methane engine.
This is something 6x larger than what we have done so far, but it uses pretty much the same technology. It's a huge effort of scaling up the technology to a different, to a different size. It will have a very novel thermodynamic cycle, which has the objective of delivering a particularly efficient performance in what we call the high specific impulse range. One in other important news of 2022 on page 12 was the somewhat unexpected surge in the demand for defense products. First and foremost, on our relationship with MBDA, we had a substantial increase in the Aster 30 boosters demand. We received production orders in excess of EUR 80 million in 2022, which is a very substantial number.
Production rate for us will increase by more than a factor of two between 2022 and 2023, and there's probably more to come. This is also partly the result of what has happened around the world and the different scenario that has emerged in the course of 2022. In parallel, we also had the beginning of the CAMM-ER solid rocket motor, which we finished the development of in 2021, 2022, and now we will be entering in 2023 in production mode with the first batch of production for the Italian Armed Forces. Even if it is only an initial production order, more are expected to come also from export customers.
There is more orders coming, and this is very important because it will help us to diversify the business portfolio more towards defense than it was in the past. In parallel, we have also some other projects such as the Teseo anti-ship missile system for which we have a development contract, and also some undisclosed activity in terms of research and development for a new training system where we develop the propulsion systems for a European defense program. A lot of stuff happening in the defense business. We think it's important to diversify the risk of the company and leverage the very same technology that represents the core of our knowledge, meaning the solid propulsion capability. All in all, this is what was 2022.
A mix of positive success on the commercial side and a contingent, a difficult situation with high energy prices, high inflation, and unfortunately, the anomaly on the Vega flight. In aggregate, I would say that the results allow us to look at the future with a better confidence than before. I will now pass the word to Alessandro Agosti, our CFO, to review in detail the financial results.
Yes, thank you, Giulio, good morning to all. Shall we move to page 14? We start with talking about method of backlog. We report the first of all the backlog revolution over the course last four years. Backlog has grown, as you can see, seasonally over the past four years with a compound annual rate growth rate of 15%, which is consistent with growth rate of launches and market growth. At the 2022 year-end, order backlog reached the record amount of EUR 1.040 billion, exceeding guidance indication between EUR 870 million and EUR 920 million. In 2022, order intake amounted about EUR 500 million, principally composed of Vega C production for about EUR 200 million. Development of Vega C adaptation and Vega E completion, as Giulio commented before, for about EUR 80 million.
P120 production and development for about EUR 100 million, tactical production for a step booster and development of CAMM-ER for about EUR 60 million. It is important to underline that this order intake does not include that next gen new contract signed yesterday commented before by Giulio, the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy for over EUR 385 million within the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Also this intake does not include the effect of ESA November 2022 Ministerial Conference which will unfold in 2023. Shall we move to page 15? We reported the trend of our net revenue.
In 2022, net revenue amounted to EUR 357 million, 15% higher than previous year, and slightly higher than the 2022 guidance range between EUR 330 million-EUR 350 million. Increases basically attributed to both the development of Vega and flight and development activities related to M10, Zefiro 9, and Space Rider program. Also, P120C development and production contributed to the growth compared to prior year, partially compensated by lower Ariane 5 production Vega. It is important to underline that in 2022, Vega lineup business accounted for 65% of total revenue, and nearly 45% of revenue came from development activities. Let's move on page 16 on results. The commented increase in revenues mainly comes from development of Vega C base driver and also Vega E.
Reported EBITDA of EUR 21.4 million is in line with 2022 guidance, provided in September 2022 between EUR 17 million and EUR 25 million, much lower than prior year due to sharp increase in energy costs. EBITDA reported has been also affected by non-recurring costs of EUR 6.4 million, mainly for extra costs incurred in the maintenance slide of Vega C, and including EUR 3.2 million one-off positive contribution resulting from other revenue from settlement of Law 808/85 payables, extraordinary provision for risk for Vega C reference slide activity following the failure in December 2022, and for the risk of execution of future programs. Law 808/85 refers to public financial support for development of certain projects in the aerospace and defense sector. EBIT results substantially reflect the same dynamics of EBITDA, with lower depreciation in the EBIT also.
Net income of EUR 1.3 million, in line with guidance, released in September, and lower than compared to prior year, primarily due to the factor mentioned above related to EBITDA. Net income also show a neutral effect of a neutral tax effect, thanks to the contribution of the shared tax asset on temporary difference and tax losses carried forward. Shall we move on next page? We commented the trend of gas price in 2022, actually over the last four years. The increase in energy cost, in particular in gas, has an impact on us, in particular for the cost of gas, which is used for, to produce the steam, which is then used in the industrial production processes, particular casting activities, and then for the energy cost for large size buildings.
The slide show the gas trend price in the last four years. Gas price increase starting from the second semester of 2021, reaching a peak in the central part of 2022. We can note that price of gas in particular increased 6x compared from the beginning of 2021 to the end of 2022. Talking about the average yearly price, you can see that the gas average price increased from EUR 46 per MWh in 2021, to EUR 123 per MWh in 2023, 2022, sorry, about almost 3x as much. Ongoing action for what we are doing is following the partnership with Cogenio and Enel X that we talked about here.
We have invested in a new thermal electric generation plant, and an assessment is in progress for investment in photovoltaic solar plants. Expected in the near future is the trend of decreasing gas price, with current forecast from the Italian Electricity Market Authority expected at EUR 55 per MW for the year 2023. Shall we move on the next page? 18, we reported the suite of our non-recurring costs. In 2022, non-recurring costs amounts to EUR 6.4 million, mainly consisting of extra costs of Vega C, as we commented before, for maintenance slide occurred in July 2022. Certain payments to facilitate cessation plans. COVID-19 to guarantee employee protection.
One off positive contribution of EUR 3.2 million resulting from other areas for settlement of Law 808/85 , extraordinary provision for risk for Vega C reference slide following the failure last December, for the execution of our future programs. In the next page, 19, we report the source and uses. Cash from new contract contributed to a positive trend of structural negative working capital. Increase in provision for extraordinary tool for risk for Vega reference slide activity, net of expected compensation, and provision for the execution of future programs. Increase in fixed assets is mainly attributable to CapEx, basically for data centers increase, infrastructure for digital propulsion, IT licenses, improvement programs, and other intangible assets.
Change in equity is principally driven by dividend distribution last May 2022 for EUR 4.5 million, and completion of program of share buyback in 2022, again for EUR 4.5 million, and the movement is completed by net income of 2022. On page 20, we report the net cash position reached. The chart show a cash generation of about EUR 30 million from operating cash flow, despite maintaining level of CapEx. A cash absorption of about EUR 14 million from non-operating cash flow, mainly from dividends, treasury shares, and other minor movement. On page 21, we reported the quarterly pattern of EBITDA and cash generation, which confirm also in 2022 as it was in previous years. The concentration of contribution in the last quarter of the year.
I give back the floor to Giulio for outlook.
Thank you.
Thank you, Alessandro. Following on page 23, what we have done is a very simple comparison of what we have ahead of us in terms of challenges and opportunities. I will start from reviewing the challenges. First of all, we will face a slower than expected P120 production ramp up, probably in 2023 and 2024, as a result of a further slippage of the Ariane 6 program. This is inevitable because if the program slips, we will have to manufacture less than we had expected in terms of production rate increase. This will unfortunately deal with the same fixed costs. That's one challenge.
The other challenge is that the Vega C return to flight in 2022, we temporarily slow down the production activity of all Vega C. Here, the degree for profitability is applied for, I mentioned. Slow down the production activity of 2023, but in essence, the slowdown in production activity also has to deal with the same level of fixed costs, and so will partly affect profitability. In the meantime, we have that energy prices are not yet stable even if as Alessandro was saying, prices in 2023 could be in the range of about EUR 50 per MWh . This is still 5 x what it was in 2020, so it's not exactly cheap. We also add that inflation is a substantial volatility.
In the course of the last 12 months, inflation moved from 2%- 10%, and that affects any nature of cost. These are challenges that we kept in mind. By the way, Alessandro mentioned, we also provision partly for the risks associated to these challenges. Now when we look at opportunities, we have some extraordinary things ahead of us. First of all, the whole roadmap of Vega C improved, Vega E, and Space Rider is not only defined now, but it's fully funded at completion as a result of the recent Investor Conference of 2022. Which means that we have full visibility on our product improvements for the future to be able to deliver to customers more and more effective solutions for their needs.
We have an unprecedented backlog for Vega, which we have never had. You know, we are now in excess of 15 flights sold. More of them are coming soon, which means we are fully booked until the end of 2027. Visibility is extremely important to be able to manage costs properly and to extract profitability. A similar situation is on Ariane 6, where Arianespace has secured substantial sales for Ariane 6 for the next several years. Now we await the maiden flight, we know that past the maiden flight, there is a huge number of flights that have been sold and that will feed the backlog. In the meantime, luckily, we also had an unexpected growth of the defense business. In the past, we have had significantly more defense business, I mean 10 years or 15 years ago.
We are very happy to see that more defense business is coming to diversify the portfolio. On top of it, we have a unique opportunity with the European Recovery Fund or the so-called PNRR in Italy, to further strengthen the product and the technology base through new programs that will add visibility on the long term in terms of what type of products we can provide to customers to capture also new segments of the market, new customers, with new, more effective solutions. On balance, I would say that the medium-term opportunities outweigh the short-term challenges. When we look at what the future will bring in the next five to six years, there is substantial growth coming from secure backlog and ability to manage costs in a way that we can extract profitability.
Looking at 2023 on page 24, we resolve to provide a cautious guidance on revenues and EBITDA net income, pretty much in continuity with what we had in 2023. As a result of what we said before, because we will have headwinds in terms of ability to carry out production activities. Both on P120 and Vega production, we will face headwinds in production growth. At the same time, we will work on new development projects for Vega E, for Space Rider, for Vega C+, for new liquid propulsion programs. The mix of activities will shift from production to development temporarily, I would say. In the years to come, it will swing back to productions as we finally ramp up with Vega C and Ariane 6.
Also on cost, we have to keep an eye on the story of inflation, which will inevitably impact any costs in any company. This why, this is why we resolve to partially provision for that to make sure we have a safe future. The one surprise that we hope to be able to deliver to the market is a further substantial increase in net order backlog. If we succeed in doing that by some 20% with respect to the current net order backlog, we hope to be in the range of about EUR 1.2 billion by the end of 2023. We will have even more visibility than we have today on the future, cash flows and on the future expectation for earnings.
This is pretty much what we see in the short term for 2023. If we go to page 25, we also try to imagine what is beyond 2023. The increasing backlog that we will attain in the course of 2023, and the strong cash position will support an expectation for a double digit revenue growth in the period 2024-2027. We do expect in the period, in that period, finally, we will be able to convert all of this backlog increase in revenue growth. In fact, the market demand, we have said it for months, if not for years, it's extraordinarily growing. A doubling of our underlying market is expected by the end of the decade.
You very well see that now in our backlog, which anticipates what will happen in our revenues in the years to come. In fact, the testimony of this is the fact that the commercial backlog for Vega, Ariane and the Aster missile are completely full for the next few years. We also see that having secured the European Commission and the European Space Agency budget for the next few years, we provide for both Ariane and Vega development and production support activities a great certainty. Now on this project, we really have to focus on execution more than on commercial activities. As we said, the NextGenerationEU projects will unfold between now and 2026, as defined by the European Commission.
The next four years will be particularly relevant in terms of a peak in development activities. I would say that the NextGenEU projects are strategic in nature because they will bring new technologies and products all revolving around liquid propulsion technology, potentially reusable, which really helps us to open opportunities in new markets and new customers with hopefully more and more competitive products. The years beyond 2023 should see further opportunities coming in the defense business, in particular in tactical propulsion, which is at the core of what we do in defense. The geopolitical situation has evolved in a direction where substantial increase in defense budgets have been put in place pretty much everywhere in the world. We do expect this business to grow.
We will do our utmost to grow in this business, we believe we can spend now our capabilities in solid propulsion much more effectively. We hope for an improved scenario on energy prices. It is now slightly better than than last year. We do still see challenging times for inflation. We don't know yet whether inflation will come back to a more normal range in the next few years. Of course, a 10% inflation rate is not a very sustainable one in the long term. We will do, of course, the utmost to counterbalance that. As we have commented, given the unprecedented surge in inflation, we have also provisioned relative to the cost of our projects for the future.
At the same time, we have to recognize that we are facing an unprecedented changing scenario, which has occurred in the course of the last 12 months that we need to keep in mind. All in all, I would say we are confident on the future in spite of the short-term challenges, and we are now happy to receive any questions you may have. Thank you.
This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their phone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone with a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Martino De Ambroggi of Equita. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. My main question is on the 2023 guidance. If you could split what are the most important blocks in the bridge. I'm referring number one to the energy cost, if you could provide 2022 input and what is embedded in your guidance for 2023. Second, what is the estimated impact, if it's possible, even a rough figure of the delay caused by the Vega C failure? Third, the impact of inflation, trying to understand what's your ability to pass through. Fourth, the R&D fiscal benefits. I don't know if I forget something in the bridge for profitability in 2023.
Thank you, Martino. I think we will respond together, myself and Alessandro, on these things. I will say a few things and then maybe Alessandro to complement. First of all, on 2023 expectation for energy costs, we have shared, we expect what the Italian energy authority expects, which is in the range of EUR 50 per MWh-55 per MWh. That is not bad, I would say. Definitely better than last year. Again, it's five times what it was in 2020. We expect some relief versus 2022, but still not an ideal situation. On this front, you know, we had an impact last year from 2021, we had an impact of EUR 5 million versus 2020.
This year we have an impact in 2022 versus 2021 of another EUR 4 million. Hopefully we go back to more or less 2021 results with a release of EUR a few million on energy. We will not restore the condition of pre-COVID levels, I mean. That's one point. On the other side, meanwhile, inflation has gone up to 10%, this impacts pretty much any cost. Okay? On some of these costs, we will be able to pass this through the customers, not entirely. Why?
Because some of the contracts that we had signed before such an increase in inflation have a cap on inflation rate that does not go beyond 3%, which at the time was considered a very high inflation rate. Unless we negotiate each and every contract, it's not so easy, it's not so easy to adjust. It's also somewhat commercially sensitive, that's why we don't want to speak too much detail about it, okay? This is also the reason why we partially provisioned for that to make sure that we have some room for conducting the right negotiations to incorporate that.
It is also true that, such a commercial success, in particular on Vega, came along with, I'm sounding to say fair prices, you know, good prices for the future. Given that we had such a, an unprecedented demand, I would say Arianes pace was pretty good at capturing good prices. Such prices should be sufficient for us to extract the expected profit even at the current inflation rate. Now, regarding the delays of Vega C, well, the situation is very simple. In 2023, we were expected to have a production rate four for Vega C. This year we only have a production rate one for Vega C and one for Vega. At a minimum, the production rate is cut in half. Why?
Of course, before manufacturing new motors for Zefiro 40, we have to wait until we conduct the tests, we verify the revenue we signed and so on. We have some idle time to production activities until Zefiro 40 production, Zefiro 9 production can be restored. On the other side, we have that P120C suffers an additional year in delay of Ariane 6 with respect to what was announced last year. We cannot continue to manufacture P120Cs and put them on stock because the stock is nearly full. We will manufacture as much as we possibly can until we can hold it within stock. Also on that front, we will likely have a lower production level of P120C compared to 2022.
That is why, you know, also on this front, lower production activities in our plants will face the fact that we have nearly the same fixed costs. We will have some under absorption of fixed costs. I will give to you, Alessandro, maybe to comment something on the R&D tax.
Yeah. Thank you, Giulio. Good morning, Martino. R&D tax credit were recognized in 2022 for about EUR 4 million. In 2023, we were a little bit prudent in expectations. We expected the R&D tax credit in the range of EUR 2.5 million-EUR 3 million. We should also consider that additional possible mitigation could cancel government initiatives that we are still in discussion. These R&D tax credit now include also not only the effect on development revenues, but also incentives on industry for Industry 4.0. This could have a further positive effect.
Okay. Thank you. Just the second question is on CapEx, if you can provide an updated projections for CapEx. Thank you.
For CapEx in 2023 or 2022?
No, no-
2022
and, going on. Thank you.
I think CapEx, we will have pretty much to maintain a substantial level of CapEx. As a matter of fact, we believe that we should do this to make sure that in 2024, 2025, 2026 we can sustain the growth that is already embedded in the backlog we have today. We have an unexpected growth in the backlog, way beyond expectations. Now if we do not invest now, we will not be ready by 2024, 2025, 2026 to execute on the growth that we expect. We expect a fairly high level of CapEx, EUR 35 million up to potentially even EUR 40 million worth of CapEx. But we think it is crucial, and by the way, possible, given the cash position that we have today.
We have to use that cash to invest in CapEx to secure the growth of 2024, 2026, 2027 and so on. I hope I answered the question.
Yes, thank you. EUR 35-EUR 40 for 2023 and going on a similar amount?
Going on, we will see. Quite frankly, at some point the upgrade for Vega C and Ariane 6 production means to them. Because at some point this needs to turn into depreciation. We don't expect to go with this high level of CapEx very much beyond 2024, quite frankly. All this effort in CapEx is devoted to securing the growth in flight rate of Ariane 6 and Vega C, to secure that we can do that with adequate production means. We don't anticipate to have such a high level very much beyond 2024.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question is from Virginia Montorsi of Bank of America.
Good morning. 3 quick one from me. The first one is could you give us more color on how to think about overall group tax rate for 2023? The second one, apologies if I missed the number in your financial release, but, could you take your overall number of shares at the end of the year? Last question is, could you just quickly recap the amount of launches for just the Vega program in 2022? Thank you.
What was the last question? The amount of, for Vega C?
The total number of launches. It's not just Vega C, the whole Vega program.
For 23?
Twenty-two.
Okay. Let me start from the last question. In 2022 we performed the maiden flight of Vega C and the second mission in December. Two Vega C missions, one of which has the anomaly. In terms of the own shares, we have today a stock of nearly 4% of the share capital. Okay? We have as such just recently completed the acquisition of Thales. Maybe, Alessandro, the tax rate?
Yeah, the tax rate 2023 is consistent with 2022. As you know, we have deferred tax assets, which at the end of the day will compensate the current taxes. This will be easier in 2022 but also expected in 2023. Profit before tax will approximate the net result.
Thank you very much. Very clear.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Bruno Carmosino of Intesa Sanpaolo.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I have a few questions. The first one concerns the if you can give us a little bit more granularity on the cost for return-to-flight of Vega C. If I have one understood, EUR 30 million will be sustained by the European Space Agency. How much will be the remaining cost to be sustained in 2023? Do you expect the provisions made in 2022 will completely cover the risks? If you can give us more clarity on this point.
The second question concern the possible M&A you were considering a few months ago, for above all, if I well remember, vertical integration, if you have something still in mind. First point, if you can give us an indication of what could be the rate of consumption of the advance payment you have in your hands. More or less what could be a normalized net cash position we can expect by 2023, or even in the longer period, if it will need some time to normalize. The last point was on the current backlog on Vega C.
Some of the customers that need to launch in a short period of time, and so could be constrained to, could be obliged to look for alternatives. If you see this kind of risk in the current backlog of Vega C?
Thank you, Bruno. Let's start from the first question. The return to flight costs, what is the nature of this cost, just for you to grasp how these costs are borne? First of all, we have to conduct a static firing test of a Zefiro 40, which means that there is the cost of Zefiro 40, plus the cost of the test, plus the cost of all the engineering that goes with it. We have the cost of retrofitting some of the Zefiro 40 nozzles that we have already manufactured with the nozzle throat insert that we now need to substitute with the new one. We have to dismount those nozzles, take away the parts that we can no longer use, substitute that part with the new carbon-carbon insert.
All this process, of course, takes another part of the cost. We have some other additional analyses to be conducted on the remaining parts of carbon-carbon inserts that we have in stock to further improve the understanding of the performance of the material that has failed, so that we have a full and deep understanding of this complex performance of the material. All of this will burn pretty much more or less EUR 30 million. These costs will be covered by the European Space Agency, and of course we have at least this, we have provision for risk because we don't know what is the outcome of this program, if everything goes well or not. We have partially provisioned for risk according to accounting principles.
Yes, we believe that the provisions we have put are adequate, and therefore we should not have any risk of additional unforeseen costs. Okay. If our estimates are right, we should not, because we have on one side the coverage from the European Space Agency. On the other side, we have slightly provisioned for risk, so we should be fine without any further net effect, net negative effect. On the M&A, yes, we have a couple of small investments in pipeline for minority participations to some technology companies that we believe may add to our technological portfolio. This will be minorities. However, with strategic agreements, that will complement our technology portfolio. This will be only a few EUR millions.
It will be a very strategic relevance in the context of the development that we have to carry out in the next few years. Working in strong partnership with some technology companies and startups will help us a great deal to implement the new development projects. I will skip the third question and leave it to Alessandro, but on the story of alternate launches for Vega C for our customers. Of course, I am faced with do its best to keep all the customers. You are right that some of them have an urgency to fly. At the same time, there are not very many alternatives because as you know, Soyuz is no longer in operation.
Ariane will not be in operation in 2023, likely in 2024 it will only have performed the main flights or I don't know. Falcon 9 is apparently full, you know, in terms of launches already booked. There are not very many alternatives in the short term. As a result of that, you know, we will do the best to keep them. I do not anticipate many cancellations. At the same time, I have to tell you, there is such a continuing demand growth, in spite of all that happened, that the last thing I'm worried about is the backlog. I'm actually worried that the backlog is big compared to our ability to execute.
This leads me to the point that Alessandro will expand on, the necessity to invest in CapEx to secure production lead capability. Maybe Alessandro, you can comment on the consumption of cash.
Yes, thank you, Giulio. Good morning, Bruno. Record levels of backlog as we discussed before, with above EUR 1 billion with unfolding contracts and advances, which will maintain working capital structure negative in the next year. In terms of net cash position, considering the peak level of CapEx expected this year, we however will proceed a light lower level of net financial position compared to again, the record at year end 2022 was EUR 74 million. In a sustained positive level, let's say. We will have a slightly low level in the next year, 2023 or couple of years, we will recover afterwards.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. Excuse me, we have another question, a follow-up from Martino De Ambroggi of Equita.
Yeah, thank you. My follow-up is on the defense business. Could you provide a long-term projection and maybe very rough indication on the profitability for this business? Still on this, during your speech, Giulio, you mentioned that export contracts could come. When do you expect this could materialize and should it be material or just a minor contribution to this business? One more question, just, this is just a housekeeping question. You already signed that EUR 280 million yesterday. You are projecting EUR 80 million-EUR 100 million of tactical propulsion system orders in the first half this year.
That means that the European Space Agency, EUR 700+ million will be split half in 2023 and half in 2024-2025, just to match the projection of your growth in order backlog.
First of all, on the defense business, yes, we do expect growth. You know, in the past years we have had annual revenues on this business of order of magnitude EUR 10 million, this is something that was even below the radar screen in a way. Now we expect this number to grow substantially to maybe EUR 30 million-EUR 35 million per year, which is substantially more than in the past, to be able to sustain this level for the next three to four years at least. We will continue to have orders in the course of 2023, some of the exports may come at the beginning of 2024. This we don't know. It depends on our customer also, what they succeed on doing in terms of the procurement cycle.
Today, the situation is quite fuzzy, as you can imagine, because the conflict has created a situation where there is a lot of interest to rapidly grow these orders, then passing from intentions to signature takes a little bit of time. There is no doubt that in the next three to four years, backlog will grow and revenue will grow too. Also on this front, we will confront ourselves in 2023 with a production capacity upgrade for our tactical missile solid rocket motor manufacturing activity. Most of which will be supported by the customer, and part of which will be represented by some of our CapEx.
Of course the customer pays for certain parts, but another part we have to invest on our own, and this is the reason why we are keeping quite some CapEx. It's difficult to do a full forecast of the revenues because these things are just materialized over the last few months and weeks. We will update you maybe in the next few months between now and the summer, what the situation on defense looks like when we have a better picture. Yes, we do anticipate at least until 2026, a significantly higher level of revenues compared to 2022. In terms of how the Ministerial Conference budget will unfold, perhaps your expectation is reasonable.
One, an in-house this year and out next year, more or less. I believe it's reasonable. There might be a little fade in 2025. At the end of 2025, we will have yet another business conference. I would expect most of it to be captured in 2023 and 2024, and a minor portion of it moved towards beginning of 2025. That said, you know, I expect the order intake for 2023 and 2024 to be quite substantial. On average, even above the level of revenues. This means that the net order backlog will continue to grow in 2023 and in 2024. And hopefully in 2025, we'll start to consume that because we will hopefully have converted that into revenues pretty much.
Okay. The defense, if it's possible, to have a rough idea of the profitability, is it accretive? Well, probably not compared to the current one, which is quite depressed because of the well-known reasons, but considering the normal 10% EBITDA, if not more that you had in the past, the defense business is accretive, in line, dilutive?
Co-considering that we have a fairly concentrated customer base that will refrain from telling you exactly what we expect on the business. The profitability on this project is pretty good. I think it is accretive. The problem is it's still relatively small compared to the total value pool. Unless wev have in the next couple of years, the next year or in the next year and a half, a substantial, as you called it, a material change in orders, meaning that we have all of a sudden an unexpected, very material increase in backlog. You know, this is, yes, accretive, but not substantial in terms of the overall profitability.
Okay. Thank you, Giulio.
However, the trend is very, very, very interesting because if we proceed with the expectations we have today, now this starts to be an interesting component of our EBITDA, I would say.
Thank you.
For any further questions, please press star one on your telephone. We don't have any other questions registered at this time. Do you want to add any further comments?
No. Thank you very much to you all. I think, for now, we have no further news. We will have the shareholders meeting by the end of April 28th. We anticipate no more news in particular between now and then. We will keep you informed on the progress of other projects in particular for the NextGenerationEU projects, which are set to come to conclusion very soon. If there are any further updates on customer orders for Vega C, we will obviously keep you informed. Other than that, I would say the next few weeks and months are very much down to execution.
We expect between now and let's say May, end of May, beginning of June, to perform our tests on Zefiro 40, and then sometime by the summer to get ready on the path with Vega. We will provide to you updates on this call. Most probably beginning of May, we'll have the first quarter results, even though, as you know, the first quarter results are not very telling of what happens in the course of the year. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.