Earnings Call: Q1 2021

May 11, 2021

Good afternoon. This is the call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Avior First Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Giulio Rangel, CEO of Avio. Please go ahead, sir. Good afternoon to you all, and thank you for joining the Q1 2021 results, and sorry for having postponed a little bit. So I hope you all have in front of you our presentation. I will start from Page 3 with the highlights. So first of all, as a premise, the Q1, as you know, typically tells little about what happens during the year. And this year, probably even less than in previous years, given the very peculiar situations in which we found ourselves. So in particular, we worked mostly on the return to flight of Vega on the VV-eighteen mission, which was completed successfully, as you probably know, on April 28, with the launch of Playa DMEA-three and 5 minutei satellites on a SMS derived module. So this followed a very in-depth review of quality and flightworthiness in our assembly and integration and testing processes to secure reliability. So the mission was successful. We're very happy about that. But of course, it requires a very intense effort. In parallel, as you know, the effect of the pandemic were not yet finished. In particular, the region where we have all of our production and development activities in Italy, Colleferro was actually subject to a red zone due to a very local high peak in the effects of the pandemic. So if you want, we overlapped 2 very negative elements of scenario all in the same quarter. Meanwhile, the order backlog, we managed to keep it healthy. As you can see, it's essentially in line with that at the end of 2020, which means that we got some order intake, which offset completely the revenues we generated in the period. And the revenues of the quarter was down by 34% with respect to last year at $52,600,000 due to a slowdown in production and development activities, which has been induced by the situation of the operations for VV18 and to the enduring effect of the COVID-nineteen restrictions, which in many ways, obviously, did not allow to progress as fast as we hope to. As a consequence of reduced top line, we have reported EBITDA of $3,000,000 which is down 58% with respect to last year and now reported EBIT negative for 2,200,000 dollars So these results were also the effect of a higher nonrecurring expenses due to 3 full months of COVID effects. The nonrecurring costs of COVID were actually incurred due to the very peculiar situation I told you about specifically here in Colleferro and to the extra costs, which we incurred to actually make sure we would have the 18 flight on schedule. On the positive side, I would say the net cash position remained pretty stable with respect to the year end. So as you can see, what is relevant in this scenario is that we managed to have 2 important parameters LP, the net order backlog and the cash position. So all in all, we did not lose any visibility on future business during this quarter, but we unfortunately worked very intensively on the return to flight. Meanwhile, we managed to progress also on the commercial side with the signature of some advanced payments for the next batch of VEGA launches for the future. So we are in advance to pay for our long lead items to procure our materials. And Arianespace also signed a new Vega launch with Airbus for the CO3D constellation, which I should say it's a very relevant result considering the difficult situation we found ourselves in. So all in all, I would say not exciting results in terms of revenues and profits, but very healthy net of that backlog in cash and also, I would say, business visibility for the future. So moving on to Page 4, a quick snapshot of the intense effort that was spent over the last, I would say, 5 months preparing for the VV-eighteen flight with a very intense set of over inspections to secure flight workiness. So we completely reviewed all of the assembly, integration and testing procedures. Almost 4,000 procedures were reviewed. We increased the number and depth of the quality checks everywhere in the process. We introduced a new specific layer in the organization to ensure an independent technical cross check on any of our technical processes. We executed a number of trainings for the workshop operators involved in assembly, integration and testing to make sure that all of them would have the best knowledge of the matter. And we also managed to spread the actions on the improvement actions on the next few flights, meaning on the next Vega 19 and 20th flight as well as on the maiden flight, such that the effort of implementing these improvements was not incurred alone also only on the V18. Otherwise, we would have had a further delay and so on. So I would say a very, very intense period of work. Now on Page 5, I think it's interesting to review the success of Flight No. 18. Why? Because this was a very peculiar flight. It had a major payload, Player Neo. Player Neo is a very interesting Airbus satellite with less than 30 centimeters it's an earth observation satellite with less than 30 centimeters resolution. So let's say, it's a novelty in the business, a very precious payload. We launched them, in addition to that, 5 small satellites by leveraging a portion of the SSMS, our adapter for small satellites. So this flight has also proven the ability not only to launch again, of course, but to launch a bundle of satellites in a different configuration that we had done actually in September. In September, you may recall, we had launched 53 different small satellites. This time, we have launched what we would call a piggyback. So a major big satellite with an addition of 5 small ones. And so this is important because it tells you a lot about the flexibility of our technology to embark satellites of different sizes and shapes and so on, even almost on a last minute basis. Now allow me also on Page 6 for a bit more of a technical point and follow me on that because I want to explain to you the relevance of this. BB-eighteen flight also marked another first timer in Europe. It was the first time we ever tested on a European launch vehicle the use of satellite telemetry. Now what is that? You know that when a launcher is actually flying, you need to be able to track where the launcher is from Earth. So the way you do it is you have a number of telemetry stations on the ground everywhere on the planet and somehow you need to follow this rocket, which is actually running pretty fast. Now this requires a very extensive network of telemetry stations all around the world, which have a cost, which are complex to maintain and complex to have them all operational at the same time when you need to fly. Now for the first time, we tracked the flight of the satellite from space from a network of NASA satellites that provides this type of service and a receiver, let's say, that we embarked onboard Vega, the so called TDRS device, which you see here in the pictures. Now what are the benefits of this and why is this important for the future? First of all, because we will have lower reliance on ground stations, thereby also optimizing the cost in part of the launch, but increasing substantially the flexibility to execute flights even when one of the stations may actually not be operational. And we also, from this point of view, have a great deal of improvement from a safety standpoint because rather than tracking the launcher discreetly only in certain parts of its flight through different ground stations on earth, you can actually follow it throughout the entire flight, which is much, much better for safety. So I apologize for having had a deep dive on this, but this is a very important milestone that you will see will make the difference in the future. Some of the U. S. Rockets use satellite telemetry, but in Europe, it was never done. So it's an interesting first time. Now if I move to Page 7, there's a detail of the key financials. Starting from this quarter, we decided to also report the net order backlog even though you know that the net order backlog on a quarterly basis is not necessarily very much telling of what is happening on the commercial side. Nonetheless, as you can see, the backlog stayed pretty stable, which means obviously we had a positive order intake in the order of magnitude of the revenues we generated in the period, which is good because as I said, it means the visibility on future business stayed pretty much the same, well above 2 years equivalent of annual revenues. Net revenues, as we said before, was down by 34%. Now when it comes to reported EBITDA, obviously, the lower contribution to profit was driven largely by a lower volume of business. And there's also the fact that the nonrecurring costs were higher than we actually had anticipated and definitely higher than we had last year when COVID materialized only towards mid March, whereas this time, we have had it throughout the quarter. And most importantly, we didn't have as much specific extra costs to run the flight as we actually had last year. Then when we go down to the EBIT line, the EBIT reported is down to negative 2.2. Percent. This impact, as you know already from the results of 2020, is due to the fact that starting from 2020, in fact, we have higher depreciation than we used to have in just in 2019 because we started depreciating some of the new assets we've put in place for the new generation factories that we use for Iron Oreo 6 and Vega C, while we do not yet have the steady state volumes. And as a result of that, the plants are still underutilized. So there's a bit of a heavier impact of depreciation on the accounts. The cash position is robust. As you can see, it stayed at 58,000,000 dollars compared to $62,000,000 at year end. So as I said before, the quarter is disappointing from the point of view of the economics of the period, but not really sold due to the effects of what I said before, while the visibility on the business in terms of order backlog and the robustness of the balance sheet stay pretty much stable and healthy. Now on Page 8, there's a usual review of how the quarters go. Typically, so we compare the key results of the quarter with previous years. And as you probably recall, we generate most of the profits in the actually in the Q4. So almost half of our profits are typically generated in the 4th quarter. Even the first half, as you can see, is hardly one half of what we do at year end. And as a consequence of that, typically, reviewing the 1st couple of quarters is not so indicative of what happens within the full year. This year, as you can see from cash, we started from a higher cash position. Now we anticipated that there will be, as typically is the case in the middle of the year, some consumption of this cash to then come back up towards year end as it is typically the case. Now looking forward to the next steps on Page 9, what are the key next steps in 2019 in 2021? So now that we have successfully returned to flight, of course, we are working hard to catch up with our schedule. And we have a pretty busy upcoming flight activity with VV-nineteen scheduled to happen in the summer in the Q3 and BD-twenty to happen at the beginning of Q4 2021. So we would be working back to back with flights 1 after the other in the attempt, obviously, to catch up with the schedule. But not only that, because before the end of the year, we need to start work on the final adaptations of our gun systems in preparation for the Vega C maintenance light, which we expect to take place at the beginning, at the very beginning of 2021, but work to assemble the rocket on the launch pad for its maiden flight will definitely start before the end of 2021. So let's say we have a pretty intense schedule ahead of us, a lot of effort in a condition where COVID is still there. But as you can see, what we have ahead of us, it's a lot of work. In parallel, what we are doing in the plant, we are progressively ramping up with the some of the development activities, in particular with Space Rider and with Vega E, for both of which we had signed contracts with the European Space Agency completely for Space Rider and in part for Vega E. And in parallel, we shall also progressively ramp up with production of P120 motors for Ariane 6 and Vega C and with tactical propulsion that, as you may recall, we anticipate in having a sharp increase in volumes for the next, let's say, 2 to 3 years with a ramp up that should begin in 2021. So we will report the first half results on September 10. We'll see by then if we'll be in the position to define a guidance. We refrained from providing guidance prior to return to flight for obvious reasons, as you can imagine. We are still refraining to do so in consideration of the fact that we have just returned to flight, but we still have, as you have seen, a very, very busy schedule. And we are still amid several COVID challenges, which make, for example, the flight campaigns pretty complex, as you may imagine. You need to have extra people in your teams to make sure that you have substitutes in case someone falls sick, requirements of quarantine periods for people coming and going to the launch site are pretty complex and they make utilization of people far from efficient. So for this reason, we are refraining at the moment to provide specific guidance, economic guidance towards the end of the year. We have tried to provide to you the outlook of what we're actually going to do. But converting that into numbers is at the moment a difficult exercise. Then on November 8, we will be reporting the 9 months results, and then we should add towards the end of the year with the preparation of the legacy maintenance flight. And that's a bit it for the Q1 of 2021. Thank you. Excuse me. This is the COSCO conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from Martino De Ambroggi with Equita. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good evening, everybody. My first question is on the backlog evolution. So it's very clear. It's difficult to make explicit guidance for the P and L and cash generation. But could you recap what is included in your current backlog? And what you expect over the next few quarters based on your current visibility? And the second question concerns the P120 engine and how the ramp up is progressing? And second part of the question, when do you plan to get the benefit from the additional margin contribution coming from the full exploitation of the P120? So let me start from the Cellcon question, the ramp up in the P120 production. So last year, we started production of light hardware in the order of magnitude of between 4 and 6, let's say, items, okay? That's part of it, which is in work in progress. This year, we are scheduled to be almost twice as that. So to be closer to 12 between 12 14 items ready by year end. So we are working on the schedule. And as you can imagine, as we so if at the end of the year, we'll be at rate, let's say, 12 or 13, we are probably at 1 third of our journey, a bit more than 1 third of our journey towards the goal of reaching, let's say, an overall steady state volume of about 30 motors per year. So but still, of course, a lot of the efficiency will be gained already with once you reach, let's say, a cadence in the order of magnitude of about 20 maybe per year. So we will need to wait until at least the end of next year to see some good economic benefits of the volumes reaching a stable production level. And we don't know yet what the volumes of 2022 will actually be, we will see. But for the time being, we're almost doubling with respect to last year. So it's a relevant challenge. On the backlog, I would actually leave it to Alessandro, maybe to respond. Yes. The backlog is substantially composed as pretty much as revenue. So half and half between Vega and P120 for the Arian line of business. An increasing portion is related as we reported over the last year to the new contract signed for tactical propulsion. In Q2, for our backlog evolution, as you asked Martino, we expect a contractualization of the ministerial conference amount that was set up in the previous year. Then what we expect, let's say, between now and year end, although we don't know exactly for what precise amount. First of all, we expect some further progress in the consolidation of the backlog for the P120 and some further progress on the order of Vega Batch 4 for which we only add a portion, let's say, maybe a bit more than 1 third of what we expect throughout the life cycle of Batch 4. So we expect to make progress. Of course, in particular on Omega, this will largely depend on how the commercial activities will, let's say, regain momentum after a little bit of our standby during this period related to the failure. But as you have seen, even during this period, Aerospace was able to close one new contract with Airbus for CO3D. So we think there are good elements to expect for these aspects. In terms of the amount, we don't know yet. We'll go as always a little bit in tranches. Okay. Thank you. The next question is from Ben Hylian with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Yes. Good morning, guys. Good evening, guys. Sorry. Just on that second answer that you gave around resuming the commercial kind of activities post the failure at the end of last year. Can you talk a little bit about that? I mean, how are you feeling about competition? How are you feeling about demand outlook? That will be my first question. And then secondly, you highlighted in the presentation that the production and development activities obviously came under a lot of pressure because of COVID. How should we be thinking about those revenues as we go through the year? Thank you. Okay. Thank you for your questions. So first of all, I start on the second question. How should we expect revenue? I hope we'll be accelerating on revenues, okay? I don't know how fast we can accelerate on revenues, but I count on us accelerating on making progress on revenues. Why that? Because actually we do have the backlog. Now we need to convert such backlog into revenues. We've been trapped by extra activities to make sure we would come back to flight. Now let's say we've proven, okay. And let me say that the result of this flight was so accurate in terms of performance of the flight that indeed it demonstrated if there was any need for that, that the problem the product is extremely well performing. So when it's well executed and assembled, it performed incredibly well. So now what we need to do to accelerate revenues is to go back to work, to obviously walk through the many operational issues, which are imposed by this pandemic situation, which aren't finished yet in terms of operating an industrial business, but we expect to accelerate revenues towards year end, both, let's say, in terms of production activities and in terms of working again on the relevant projects, which we have slowed down in the past quarter. So on both sides, we should have means to accelerate. Then on resuming commercial activities and on demand outlook. So the demand outlook is incredibly attractive. It's actually improving from my point of view every quarter. So the demand everywhere, there's opportunity everywhere. And of course, with opportunity also comes competition, no doubt. But we think we have our means to compete in this environment. Of course, it has been difficult so far in the last 5 months, so to speak, for obvious reasons. But as we go through hopefully another successful flight to follow EV-eighteen, conditions will improve quite significantly. One big element we have in the pipeline and then we have already anticipated to investors is acquiring contracts for the next generation Copernicus satellites from the European Commission. These are government satellites for Earth observations. We have launched some of them in the past and more are coming between now and end of this decade. So there is a wealth of launch services to be captured between now and the end of the decade. We are discussing actively on this with the commission. And at some point, together with Ariana Space, we shall land on a first batch order. We'll see how big the batch order is. We'll see how well paid it is. We don't know yet, but this shall be coming within the near future. Then on the side of Arian, let's say, there already is a good order backlog, which is now consolidating. And in parallel, also in Arian-six, they have a comparable opportunity to capture a bulk order for the Galileo satellites, for the European navigation satellites, which at some point in the near future should be crystallized into an order to Arianespace. So these are the more, let's say, near term milestones in terms of commercial activities, which will be highly focused on government payloads in Europe for the next few years. Then of course, we're active in many different fronts all around the world. A more important activity is happening right now on constellations of different sizes and different magnitudes. There's heavy competition on that. But again, there are some niches of activities where we think we have good opportunities. And then we gain also credibility with our main customers, I think we will have incremental opportunities because we do know and we do see that their pipeline is actually growing. So at some point, I think we will have further opportunities also with our traditional core customers. There is a follow-up question from Martino De Ambroggi with Equita. Just an unusual question we used to ask you concerning the M and A scouting. I don't know if there is any progress or the focus was 100% on the return to flight for Aviga. And a very minor question, I know. But is there any contribution from the ground activities that you are now managing? Or probably it's not material, I don't know. Again, let me start from this last question. This contribution was good, was good already in 2020. Actually, it did contribute to some of the good results of 2020. As a matter of fact, it actually helped us in 2020 to offset some other negative aspects that, as you may recall, we have suffered due to very high recurring costs and so on. So this is already working. This may work also in 2021 provided that we actually execute all of these flights. So if we execute as expected, we have 2 more flights to come in the preparation of the maiden flight. I think that should provide some relief. Then on the M and A, yes, you're right. We've been completely distracted by returning to flight. It's a priority. We needed to demonstrate that we could do it and we actually needed to demonstrate that we could do it relatively fast. We could not allow to wait another 3 or 4 months before coming back to flight. And so I think if you consider that the average mean time between 2 launches for us is about 10 weeks, so 2.5 months. Okay, this time we have taken 5 months. We have wasted maybe 2.5 months, but we have fixed a major issue. So I would say we have also demonstrated ability to remain resilient across challenges. And now we need to try and run as fast as we can. Okay. Thank you, Giulio. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. Mr. Ranso, the floor is back to you for any closing remarks. Well, thank you very much to you all, and we look forward to come back to you with more news as soon as we have some. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.