Credito Emiliano S.p.A. (BIT:CE)
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May 5, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: H2 2021

Feb 8, 2022

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

Thank you very much. Good morning to all of you, and thanks for joining us to this habitual meeting with the year-end, 2021 year-end results. 2021 was indeed characterized by the economic recovery, and the role the government and banks played was of fundamental importance to limit the risks entwined with the pandemic, but also to fuel economic growth that we hope will be reconfirmed in the medium term as well.

For that specific reason, I am telling you that I am very pleased and satisfied with how the group is still supporting corporations and families, not just to foster the recovery, but also for them to be able to grow in a sustainable way in the long term by rolling the projects out from investments in companies to really enhancing the savings of households.

We also know that we have to be very careful in looking up to 2022 to see the effects after the government's measures and also looking at the international news that led to an increase in volatility already at the very beginning of 2022. Let me reiterate, however, that we will still bet on our business model, because thanks to the high diversification enables a sustainable growth of revenues, volumes, and assets under management.

At the same time, it enables us to adequately control risks, as recently confirmed by the ECB as well. Before diving into the presentation, let me thank all the people in the group, employees, financial advisors, collaborators, because they prove to be very responsive and flexible in a year that saw us involved in the deal, the merger by integration, the acquisition by integration of Caricento bank .

We try to grasp all opportunities to keep generating value over time. It is thanks to them, to these people, that we managed to achieve all-time highs for our bank and our group. 2021 further confirms that the way we do banking ensures to achieve consistent results, even in different social and economic conditions. Our figures are a telltale fact, and so our loans are increasing ten times faster than those of the system, with a 13.2% yearly increase in revenues.

Our net inflows in the assets under management, assets under management insurance is double versus 2020 and is still driving the revenue growth when it comes to fees. As you can see, we are still standing out for our business model that is favoring a high level of diversification when it comes to revenue components. In 2021, revenues from assets under management and insurance over the total amount stands at 40% of total income. The excellent performance of these aggregate figures enabled us to achieve our best result ever, also net of the badwill stemming from the Caricento merger, still increasing our profitability levels.

Despite or net of the one-off due to the merger by incorporation, we still have an ROTE in excess of 10%. This is a value at the top of the banking system and a true excellence in the banking system and universe. If you look at these results as a whole, they tell you how our strategy has been efficient, effective, and able to adapt to the different scenarios and to really extract value from change. Let me say once again that was possible thanks to the excellent and outstanding qualities of our human resources, of our people, who I'm sure will still be able to seize further opportunities going forward, that is to say, in 2022. I am also really pleased to talk about the ECB decision to reconfirm also for this year our P2R requirement.

It's among the best Italian banks that are directly supervised by the ECB, both in Italy and in Europe. This result confirms our capital soundness and the excellent way the group monitors and sheds risk. CET1 ratio of 13.7, with a dividend proposal of $0.30 per share, ensures a strong buffer on minimum capital requirement of 614 basis points. We are still very determined in following our digital pathway, our digital approach, that is of paramount importance to make processes more efficient and to meet customer needs, growing customer needs.

I've always told you that not only do we have to make our customer more aware of digital channels, but it is also of paramount importance, again, to come up with a proposition, putting together all the benefits stemming from technology and merging them, blending them with the human interaction when delivering all services from loans, investment and protection, advisory. The growing numbers that you see are the result of the investments we made in the previous years. Let me confirm, those investments will still have a core position in the group strategies. We want to really be very close to our customers throughout this digitalization process.

2021 was also a year where we improved and strengthened our sustainability strategy and climate risk management. We updated our governance for our group sustainability, sorry, it was updated, and we have a risk and sustainability committee, and it was tasked with the goal to specifically focus on monitoring ESG risks. This enables us to be very effective and efficient in the next stages of transition, embedding ESG in the lending process and achieving carbon neutrality by 2025.

Our actions are also aimed at social actions. I'm very happy about the new certifications we acquired again of EQUAL-SALARY and Top Employer certifications. All of these objectives, of course, were included in our business plan, and they will be made available to you in the different stages of reporting, as in the next non-financial report. More and more, they will drive the strategic decisions of the group as they did in 2021. We've increased over 168% our ESG investment in the wealth area, about EUR 4.2 billion.

At group level, we have adopted a social and sustainable green framework that led us to the issuance, the first issuance of a Senior Preferred Green Bond at the beginning of this year, of 2022. We are aware we still have a long way to go, but I must say I'm very proud of the great progress we made over 2021, and we will be confident in pursuing focusing on these themes also in the coming years, also going forward. Let's now dive into figures.

Let's dive into our income statement. We are on page six. As you can see our interest income, our operating income has been driven by all revenue components, both net interest income, non-interest income, and fees. As you can see, these figures are mainly driven by recurrent lines. If we exclude and strip off the non-recurring items, operating income is still growing 9%, thus reconfirming the goodness and efficiency of our business model.

If we look at costs after the effects of consolidating Caricento , we still have the merger charges and some one-offs, about EUR 15 million of non-recurring costs that were tied in with optimization, HR optimization actions and actions to support of the project of the roots. You know, despite these, a net of these one-offs, our result is increasing more than 12%. That really tells you that, our revenue dynamic is, really, efficient, and sustainable. We also have new policies on minimum thresholds, so there are no, there's no, further credit or loan deterioration.

LLPs remain at an extremely low level, and net profit in excess of EUR 352 million, despite the EUR 42 million for resolution funds, leads us to the very best result ever. If you look at the NII, the interest income, this has been reinforced thanks to the securities portfolio and increase in NII. Also, thanks to the reduction of liquidity with ECB, thus reducing costs that have an impact on our NII.

Looking at the current rates and the strong competition, because there's a lot of liquidity in the system, the impact on the customer spread are only limited, and it's just 1 basis point. Also for 2022, our goal is to keep on reducing excess liquidity by enhancing the loan growth, thus ensuring our NII once the TLTRO benefit will expire at the end of 2022, Q3 2022. I know that pressures won't be lower in 2022 also because of the competitor scenario. What you see, the trends you see are the same for both Credem and the banking system, with the system spread that declines 2 basis points versus 1 basis point for our group.

As I told you before, this is a partial vision, which tells you how we interact with customers, but it doesn't include institutional funding that enables us to still have inflows at negative rates with a benefit on the aggregate figures. Further increases in rating, the average rating of our exposure is improved, and we've also reduced to 40% the total amount of our Italian govvies. Of course, Italian govvies are 95% of them accounted for as HTC in our portfolios, so as to reduce the BTP bond, contain the BTP bond portfolio. As to the non-interest income, let me highlight the non-recurring items.

The core NIM is growing 18% year-on-year, and it's really focusing on the current economic and financial scenario, and really stresses the fact that it's very important to rely on a business model that strengthens revenue diversification. The results in Q4 recorded a 19% growth versus Q4 2020 thanks to placements and also thanks to the ability the group had to increase both volumes and the average profitability of the assets under management. Banking commissions were also very good, almost EUR 62 million in the last quarter.

That's confirming our that of course economy is recovering, and that means that we can focus to growth performance performance growth sorry for this year too. In the insurance business, in excess of EUR 19 million this quarter, driven by the constant growth in our net inflows and also the central role bancassurance plays within our group. Therefore, non-interest income growth, thanks to the strong contribution of performance fees.

In Q4, they are about EUR 49 million, as you can see on the slide on page 10. I am very confident also looking ahead to 2022, that we managed to really protect our customers' assets, strongly focusing on how markets were performing. At the same time, we are evolving and improving our offering, product offering, to always meet our customers' demands and needs, and in an ever better way. We are confident we can thus improve performance in revenues also for the coming quarters. Let's focus on costs.

In 2021, we have the mergers by integration of the Caricento, and that, of course, widened our consolidation scope and also our costs. We are sure that with the full integration of Caricento, there will be synergies unfolded. In the last quarter, we had to bear non-recurring cost, EUR 10 million for personnel to optimize our head count and about EUR 5 million for the start-up of new projects. We're on page 11. Please consider that over the last few quarters, we managed to accelerate, speed up the integration process with the Caricento. In the last quarter of 2021, we've started new projects again.

Net of all these one-offs, so to say, we still have a cost performance that is in line with the previous quarters. As you saw before, we are still supporting a strong business growth that is leading to a revenue growth. Despite D&As and costs, well, costs are still in line with expectation, we want to focus on a well-targeted investment policy focusing on digitalization and also cost trends are in line with what I've just told you.

Let's talk about volumes now. We still have loans growing at an excellent pace in all segments of our loan portfolios. Also net of the masses we inherited from Caricento , the 8% growth pace is well above the system average. Also, short-term loans are recovering almost 9% up year- on- year. If you compare the latest quarters, thanks to the fact that companies could access facilities made available by the government, they went for medium-term loans.

Let me stress the excellent contribution of Avvera for consumer lending, which I am sure will still play a role also in 2022 to increase our NII. The EUR 4 billion growth we experienced in 2021 was not just driven by the government measures that are included in the other loan items, but also thanks to an increase in loans, residential mortgages and leasing are going up 13.4% and 6.8% respectively. I would like to thank our commercial network, our sales network that is still gaining market share even in these very hard market conditions. Also, still staying on loans, let me tell you about the moratoria and state guaranteed loans, page 13.

As you can see in January, the residual stock of moratoria is below EUR 100 million and it's not having meaningful effect on the cost of risk. That proves how the initial moratoria stock reflected the loan quality that is typical of our portfolio. In the last quarter of 2021, we went on playing our role in supporting the economy, still disbursing loans, state-backed loans that went up to about EUR 3.5 billion. Let me wrap up on loans, showing you on page 14 the excellent group outperformance, growing at 10x higher pace than that of the banking system. Also gaining new market shares. In 2021, up 2.11%, so doubling the 2010 levels.

I expect it to be even higher as soon as we get end of year December data, I mean. Let's now talk about inflows, deposits and inflows. Net inflows of assets under management and insurance have more than doubled versus last year, thanks to the excellent work of our product factories, distribution networks, and of course, the better performance of the market that channeled customer choices going for assets under management versus deposits. If you look at the values, there's a reverse trend. Net inflows, assets under management, EUR 1.3 billion, down.

Sorry, direct deposit inflows, EUR 1.3 million versus EUR 4.9 million in end of 2020. If you remember 2020, our corporate clients, despite the moratoria, strongly increased their cash positions. At the same time, we record a major growth on our stock. Assets under management are in excess of EUR 35 million, 18% growth year-over-year also, thanks to the net origination that we've just seen, and also thanks to market trends, also growing our insurance reserves up almost EUR 1 billion in the last year.

All of these orders of magnitudes will lead to an increase in revenues, thanks to insurance fees as well. Direct deposit, EUR 1.8 billion. It was cash masses from the Caricento . That is indeed an opportunity to really foster investment and protection products so as to be able to further increase other economic items. Let's now talk about bond issuances and maturities. Although it's not part of 2021 transactions and deals, let me stress the first green issuance.

It's a Senior Preferred Green Bond, EUR 600 million, and it's consistent with MREL requirements. The framework we adopted enables us to be even more flexible in going for ESG facilities and instruments in our funding strategies. As to the issuances end of 2021, we paid back EUR 750 million of covered bond at maturity that we had replaced with a same amount issuance in the first half of 2021. We look at market conditions, we look at our liquidity position, and therefore we will also look into possible new issuances.

At the end of this year, there could be the early redemption of a subordinated bond of about EUR 100 million. Let's talk about credit quality. We haven't witnessed any major inflows of non-performing loans, so we keep on track when it comes to reducing the NPL stock. They're down 5% on year, and it's EUR 819 million. NPL are declining because the numerator is reducing. We also made two small disposals at the beginning of the year, we are aiming to further reduce the impact of NPLs. That happens thanks to the excellent job performance to prevent them from being generated and also from having dedicated teams for every type of default.

The overall net NPL is down EUR 40 million per year, and we increase our coverage levels with a coverage of 74.4% on bad loans and 53.74% on total NPLs. If we look at the shortfall as well, the figure is at the top of the system, 86.4% in bad loans and 62.7% on total NPL+ an extra level of coverage that is in line with both Addendum and calendar provisioning requirements. Cost of risk, page 20. The last couple of years were very important to analyze the effect the pandemic had on our LLPs. We are quite happy with our asset quality.

Cost of risk in 2021 was 10 basis points, and it's very close to our all-time lows and has a net, well, net of a non-recurring item of about EUR 6 million. Thanks to the policies we adopted over the last quarter. Cost of risk for 2021 includes the what we recovered on the collective provisions as we did at the end of H1 2021. We think cost of risk will be 25 basis points pre-pandemic levels. Also given the uncertainty that is still hovering about when the government measures will come to an end. Assets and liabilities, you see the loans to customers increased in Q4, and then net assets, direct deposit net assets went up.

Our ECB stock went down and due to balance sheet decrease, thanks to the lower liquidity on the ECB account, and then institutional bonds decreased due to the maturity in October, etc. Liquidity indices, liquidity ratios, as you can see on page 22, are always above minimum capital requirements, and therefore it enables us to have greater flexibility in setting future funding strategies. Let me wrap up by focusing on consolidated capital ratios.

As you see, we have a very sound and outstanding capital position. Our CET1 ratio still has a very meaningful level despite the merger with Caricento and the increase in RWA that went up about EUR 2 billion in 2021, and a further increase of coverage, as I mentioned before, consistent with the addendum and calendar provisioning objectives. At Credem Holding , the CET1 stands at 13.7%, and we have a 614 basis points buffer versus the SREP 2022. I can tell you that ratios include a proposal to increase the dividend payout from EUR 0.20- EUR 0.30 per share. I think I can wrap up. Thank you for your attention, and please feel free to ask questions.

Operator

This is the conference call operator. We are now starting the Q&A session. Whoever wishes to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your phone. To be removed from the Q&A queue, press star and two on your phone keypad. Please ask your questions using your headsets or handsets. If you wish to ask a question, press star and one now. The first question comes from the line of Nicholas Binda with Intermonte. Go ahead, sir.

Nicholas Binda
Equity Research Analyst, Intermonte

Good morning. Good morning to all of you. Thank you so much for the presentation. I have four questions. The one is about the net interest income. Could you elaborate or give us some color for 2022? There should be a lot of moving parts, the consolidation of Carige, as you said, and the end of the TLTRO rates, softer rates. In Q1 net of performance fees, could this be a base of what you will be performing in 2022, unrealized capital gains on your securities portfolio? If we look at the bank consolidation, what's Credem's position in that scenario or against that backdrop?

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

Well, it's Gregori speaking. We expect 2022 to be consistent with 2021. Interest income should be 2%-3% higher, whilst performance and management fees should improve too. Banking commissions should be growing 4%-5%. We also have the insurance business as well with the objective of EUR 65 million within the year. These are the forecasts for 2022. Commissions for the last quarter could act as a base, apart, leaving performance fees aside, but they could represent a proxy for next year.

I'll answer about the M&A, and then I'll leave the colleagues to answer the third question. Of course, we proved that for Caricento . I must say that in the merger project and the merger deal, we tried to somehow quote-unquote industrialize the process to benefit from other opportunities as well. That way will be looking for in the market. But of course, you always know you need then, it needs two to tango. It needs two to make the deal. The growth by M&A is one of our objectives, but we still focus on growing organically as we did this year. The third question, I hand it over to Mr. Morlini.

Daniele Morlini
Head of the Financial Business Unit, Credem

Good morning. As to the capital gain, unrealized capital gain, at CET1 level, we have no particular gains because we have a quota of HTC securities that stabilize the capital impact. From a management viewpoint, we took some benefit in the Q1, benefits stemming from disposals before the spike we have recently recorded on credit spreads.

Nicholas Binda
Equity Research Analyst, Intermonte

Thank you very much.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Giovanni Razzoli with Deutsche Bank.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning. I have three questions. First of all, I'd like to know whether you can-- We expect a 50 basis points increase in rates. Can you elaborate on that for going forward? This is a question we made in the past as well. Credem is the best group in Italy and also in Europe for asset quality, product factor, competitive position, at least for quite a few years.

Your payout is still very low. 30% is the lowest in Italy. Your competitors are 40%, so and they are well away from your standards. Shouldn't you probably make the shareholders aware of the results you've achieved and the payout gap you still have versus other Italian or European banks? A dividend payout, I mean. Then another more broader question.

The way you present your group, I don't think you enhance enough the value of affluent and private segments. They are an excellence in the group. You do EUR 300 million worth of profit with that. The market is not really valuing these specific features you have, your product factories, etc . Is there a way for you to better enhance the value stemming from these segments, giving to the group profit? Otherwise, you looked as a normal bank, and those features do not stand out. Thank you very much.

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

As to the sensitivity, maybe Daniele Morlini can answer that.

Daniele Morlini
Head of the Financial Business Unit, Credem

The sensitivity is about EUR 60 million. It's a 100 basis points increase with a 100 basis points rate increase. You said 50 basis points, you assume 50 basis points, so half of that. As to the dividend payout, let me take this opportunity to clarify things.

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

This is Mr. Gregori speaking. The role of managers and shareholders, we're always fully aware of their roles, and I think this is one of the reasons why we are consistent, as you said, in providing results, in generating results. We have full respect of all the different segments and areas. The payout is decided upon by the Board of Directors. We make presentations, we present all opportunities as we always do, but of course, the payout policy is up to the Board of Directors to decide upon. We've always said that. The different analysis that are run, indeed, there could be a reason for a different payout policy.

Let me state that our role is to produce results, deliver on results, come up with proposals, but then of course, follow the decisions made by the Board of Directors. As to the affluent and private segments, I share what you are saying about enhancing the value of these segments, and maybe in the coming months, or in the coming 60 years, you will see actions in that respect or along those lines. Daniele, would you like to complete the answer?

Daniele Morlini
Head of the Financial Business Unit, Credem

Yes. We take stock of what you said also for revenue diversification. We've tried to focus on that, and we are trying to come up with a reporting enhancing the role of the different business lines, how they contribute, but we still have to look at the timeline so that we have data in time to present them at conference calls. We take stock of your comment because this is something we are already aware of.

I agree with this, as Mr. Gregori, and we also took into account to assess strategic or core projects, because that positioning, as you were saying, is historically set somehow. It's all very well to try and benefit from that as well. Those are very important components, but that of course has to be looked at against the total framework of other business lines as well.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Manuela Meroni, Intesa Sanpaolo. Go ahead, madam.

Manuela Meroni
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Good morning to all of you, and congratulations for the results you achieved. Again, a sensitivity based sensitivity question. Sensitivity of your common equity one should the BTP bond spread widen and then cost of risk. I was wondering whether in the guidance of 20 you gave for 2025 basis points, you are including results from the collective results, or do you still have provisions that are not yet that you made in 2020 and that have not yet been used?

Costs, they were affected by a number of one-offs. What is the run rate of costs that we can expect in 2022, considering that you keep investing, having new projects that you are investing in? Then the last question is about Avvera. The 2021 growth was particularly strong for consumer credit, consumer lending. What is the outlook for 2022 in that segment? And what is the Avvera contribution in 2021 on your interest income?

Daniele Morlini
Head of the Financial Business Unit, Credem

For the first question, about the BTP bond spread and the impact on CET1. As I said before, Mr. Morlini answering, it's quite low because the Italian part of that portfolio is HTC, accounted for as HT. So we don't have any Italian govvies accounted for as HTCS. So the impact on the portfolio is very limited. As to the cost of risk, 25 basis points that we are mentioning, giving as a guidance is a prudential level that takes into account and factors in a lot of components. We did not give a general guide, we gave a general guidance.

We did not go into details because it will all depend on how things will evolve, and how the economy will perform as well. We don't have any specific problems because our asset quality is very high. However, this is the guidance we gave ourselves without really going too much in detail above and beyond the objectives we mentioned. Costs, let me say that, as for 2022, we think costs will be reduced versus 2021 of about 1% of total operating costs. Let me reiterate and say that as we have a complex business model, we rely on a complex business model, so we have to keep investing to keep up with digital evolution, but also to keep growing.

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

Then I'll answer about Avvera. Avvera is a new business line that calls for CapEx, for investments to really fully exploit our positioning. We will keep investing and that doesn't mean, however, that we won't be careful about keeping costs at bay of governing costs. Even on the contrary, we know very well we have to invest. Our model, our business model is complex, so we have, we are very careful with costs and expenses and charges.

We want to spend well, not less. Of course, if we can spend less, we try and spend less, but we want to spend well. Digital investments are not just focusing on our relationship with our customers. No, they are also aimed at optimizing internal costs so that we can extract benefit from that. As to Avvera, we are very, very satisfied, very happy with their performance in 2021, and we are confident that also in 2022 they will do very well because it's a market segment that we want to grow. Avvera is indeed a vehicle that we deem suitable to further develop the business, to further grow the business, taking into account also our risk appetite, which would be the typical feature to look at. Did I answer everything?

Manuela Meroni
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Did you have the Avvera contribution to your interest income?

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

Just a second. No, it's we don't have it now, but we'll get back to you with it.

Manuela Meroni
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Thank you so much.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Riccardo Rovere with Mediobanca. Go ahead, sir.

Riccardo Rovere
Executive Director of Bank Research, Mediobanca

Good morning to all of you. Thanks for answering our questions. A couple of clarifications, if I may. As to the sensitivity to the rate movements, the EUR 60 million that you disclose for parallel movement of a 100 rate curve of 100 basis points. "Sorry, could you speak louder on the long side of the curve without the short part of the curve?" the gentleman is saying.

Risk-weighted assets, there was a big expansion over the last timeframe. Are there any expectations on your side? What can we expect for 2022? Will they grow in line with the growth of the loan portfolio, or will there be other components that come into play? As to costs, could you give me a clarification on restructuring costs that were accounted for in 2021?

What part is contributed by Caricento, and what part instead, and/or how much instead is tied in with projects? That you mentioned projects, but I don't understand exactly what you're referring to. Are these costs completed, these restructuring costs? When will we start seeing any synergies from the Caricento integration?

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

I start from the last question. The Caricento is on 2021 EUR 22.5 million. That won't be there in 2022, and then the others are throughout the group. We can give you a more detailed answer if you need it. It's clear that we used the last few months of 2021 to commercially integrate Caricento, and we think that starting from this quarter, we should be reaping the first benefits. They will be growing as the integration will progress, the operating and control integration will move on. Daniele Morlini will answer the other question.

Daniele Morlini
Head of the Financial Business Unit, Credem

As to that part of the curve, we don't have any specific detail, but we can check with if there's room to provide you with more data. RWA performance, we don't expect anything special. As a matter of fact, there should be some benefits to be reaped because Caricento volumes should get into the internal model, so we don't see any regulatory impacts of negative nature or. We will add something positive, if ever. The growth should be in line, the RWA growth should be in line with the previous year. The benefit to be shifted into the internal model is a few EUR 100 million, so a lower RWA. Is that what you imply? Should be around 15 basis points of a positive impact.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Andrea Vercellone with BNP Exane.

Andrea Vercellone
Equity Research Analyst, BNP Exane

Good morning. A few questions. The first one is on capital. Did you make any estimates or as to Basel IV impact from here to 2025? And on the insurance side, IFRS 17 in 2023. Second question, have you made any assumptions on that? Second question is on costs. Could you elaborate again on what you said before? You said -1% in 2022.

I can't get there with my calculations, so could you tell me what you are factoring in and out, and how many employees will leave the company after the actions you performed in Q4? Then the MREL requirement, the last question. To keep your MREL requirement in the coming years, are you going to issue only senior notes or senior/senior non-preferred, or do you also need to issue Tier 2? Thank you.

Daniele Morlini
Head of the Financial Business Unit, Credem

Starting from the last question, Mr. Morlini speaking. As to the MREL progress, we are already compliant with the requirements. Basically we should be issuing senior. We don't have any subordination requirement, and that enables us to be more flexible, as it does not require any senior non-preferred issuance or Tier 2 issuance.

As to costs, this -1% is on a like-for-like basis. If we take operating costs included, that is also one-offs, we expect that accounting-wise we should be closing at -1% year-on-year versus 2022. On the one hand, you have the absence of recurring costs, and on the other hand, we keep pursuing our investment policies to support the group's growth. You asked a specific question on personnel leaving the company. We do dismiss that. [inaudible] speaking. We of course have year-on-year opportunities, windows of opportunities to leave the company also for a generational shift, because of course, we want to renew generation, but we don't want an impact on our staff.

Even with the Caricento deal, there is not much info on or an impact on the cost of the people leaving the company. We are aware of it, and we've been governing the phenomenon, the turnover with our personnel, and we share information with them. Your capital and the impact on Basel IV. On Basel IV, we have two items, a positive and a negative one, and they offset each other. One is to deal with the weighting. The data is 370, and it should go down to 270. We should have an impact on operating risk. As I said, these two items offset one another. We will see how the regulation will actually give details.

Floor will be a different thing. Above and beyond having a much longer time frame, we will have to optimize loans and RWA to try and reduce their fully operating impact. On the insurance side and IFRS 17, we've started a dedicated project for that. It's still early to have to see a specific impact or it's a project we can give you an update on as we move through the year, because right now we don't have anything to stress or disclose about it. There are no specific impacts to be disclosed.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Luigi De Bellis with Equita SIM. Please, sir.

Luigi De Bellis
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita SIM

I have four questions. One is on the loan growth. What's your new production for 2022? On loans, could you tell us about your exposure to SMEs and what industries are you most exposed to, and what are the dynamics you're seeing? You have more than 140,000 new customers. What was the churn rate in 2021, and what are your objectives for these new customers in 2022? A follow up on M&As. Do you see any impact for you or the banking system from the BPER Carige consolidation deal? In the private universe, do you wanna grow your wealth management position through acquisitions?

Daniele Morlini
Head of the Financial Business Unit, Credem

As to the loan growth, we expect a 4%-5% growth in 2022. The industries we are mainly exposed to for corporates, it's a less critical industries. That's why our asset quality is much higher. For instance, we don't have a very high concentration in building and construction. Let me give you an example. Of course, we would have to drill down to a greater level of detail, and I don't have the data here for all the industries, but I can tell you that, over the pandemic crisis, we've looked at the different industries to see how exposed we were to each of them. I have the aggregated figures.

Manufacturing industry, 38%. Services, printing industry, 24%. Distribution, 23%. Farming, 5%. Agriculture, 5%. Building and construction, 4%. Transportation, 4%. Energy, 1%. We know one is steel and iron or mining industry. That's just to give you a brief overview of how we are positioned in the different industries, and therefore you can deduce the type of exposure we have to the risks that may be affecting us going forward.

As to M&A, well, look, I think that we will have to see whether or not the BPER Carige deal will be completed, finalized. I hope, I think we all have to wish that it will for a number of factors. It's clear that as far as we are concerned, I don't think that deal will entail above and beyond. Maybe in some regions or geographies where we are overlapping, there are not very many. There's [Sicily] especially, where Carige has branches, where we also have a franchise.

In other regions, we don't have or we have very little exposure, so I don't think there'll be major effect on us. As to our M&A policy, I'm not repeating what I said before. It's clear that if we talk about M&As, we're not just looking at commercial banks. There could be opportunities to be seized in other areas. For instance, you mentioned private banking. I don't think that. I hope you did not interpret my previous answer when I said in the coming months you will see our initiatives because I was not referring to an M&A transaction.

We know that the market is active, and we are active in the market, so we will try and seize any opportunity to increase value for the group, generate value for the group, and leverage economies of scale that are good for us cost-wise because they also dilute the investments and reduce the type of investments we have to come up with. As to the customers, I can tell you that over this year, in the course of this year, we have engaged in a cleaning exercise.

If maybe cleaning is not the right word, but we've done a cleaning exercise on clients because over time we've had positions with number of clients that did not generate a lot of value. The 2021 data are affected by those actions. We also-- w e always want to grow our customers in number as well. We have a strategy. I don't recall offhand the actual figure, but it's around 20,000, 30,000 . Sorry, 2%-3%, says Mr. Gregori. 2%-3% of our customers. So 40,000. Sorry, Mr. Gregori apologizes for not giving the exact figures.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Fabrizio Bernardi with Bestinver.

Fabrizio Bernardi
Senior Finance Analyst, Bestinver

Good morning to all of you. Something about the payout policy. May I missed out some of the questions. In the past you had a mantra, not a fixed payout, but a growing dividend year in, year out. Can we assume the EUR 0.30 in 2021, we can use them as a base from now on, or has something changed? It's clear that if next year, if we won't see the same, performance, and fees, we had in Q4, maybe the payout will grow. Is your dividend policy still unchanged versus the past?

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

Well, our dividend policy, let me reiterate, is something the Board of Director has to take care of. It's not up to us to define it. It's clear that the growth we experienced from last year to this year and the fact that in 2019 we could not pay out dividends, even though it was an interesting year result-wise. We did not decide anything. We haven't changed our payout policy for the future. Year in, year out, we take stock of the situation around us. This is our mindset. This is our approach. We'll see if something changes going forward. For sure, EUR 0.30 per share is a meaningful step, and it's also a drive to do better result-wise as well.

Operator

Next question is a follow-up with Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca.

Riccardo Rovere
Executive Director of Bank Research, Mediobanca

Thank you very much. Going back to what Mr. Vercellone, if I'm not mistaken, was asking. Given the fact, given what you've said so far, capital optimization.

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

Sorry, the sound is not very clear. We don't have any specific comment to make on this.

Riccardo Rovere
Executive Director of Bank Research, Mediobanca

The buffer?

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

They were talking about the buffer versus the requirements. It's a very wide buffer. The dividend policy was something that is not necessarily tied in with AT1 issuances and capital strategies, or it's not something that's under our radar so far.

Riccardo Rovere
Executive Director of Bank Research, Mediobanca

Thank you.

Operator

Let me remind you that if you wish to ask a question, you may press star and one on your phone keypad. For further questions, please press star and one on your phone keypad. Mr. Gregori, there are no more questions at this time in the queue.

Nazzareno Gregori
General Manager, Credem

Very well. I would like to thank all of you for joining this conference call. My best wishes to all of you, and see you on the next conference call. Goodbye.

Operator

This is the conference call operator. The conference call has come to an end. You may disconnect your phones. Thank you.

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