Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Cementir Holding Preliminary 2023 Results and 2024-2026 Industrial Plan Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Maria Bianconi, Head of M&A and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, good evening, and good morning to those who participate from the U.S. Welcome to Cementir Holding Preliminary 2023 Results and the Industrial Plan Updates. I'm here with our Chairman and Chief Executive, Francesco Caltagirone. My name is Marco Bianconi, and for the first time, we are in audio webcast, so I'm sure you will follow the presentation deck that's been distributed a few minutes ago. I will introduce the results, moving to page number four, and at the end, we will leave a Q&A session for our Chairman and Chief Executive to answer your questions. From page number four, a few financial highlights. For the year 2023, revenues reached €1.69 billion - 1.7% year on year. The non-GAAP revenues were €1.69 billion -1.5% . Cement volumes were down around 1.6% in almost all countries, with the exception of Turkey and China.
Ready mix and aggregates volumes were also down during the year by 11% and 10%, respectively. EBITDA was a record €411 million, up 22.6%. The non-GAAP EBITDA was up by 25.4% to €421.9 million. This figure includes non-recurring income of €11.6 million, mainly related to gains on asset sale. The non-GAAP recurring EBITDA is €410.3 million, up 22% on a like-for-like basis. The margin increased from 19.5%-24.9% in the period. EBIT also was record to €278.3 million, up 36% year on year. Non-GAAP EBIT was €299 million, up 39%. Profit before tax was up 23% to €290 million. Non-GAAP pre-tax was €315.8 million, up 39%. Important to underline, the net cash position reached the record of €217.6 million, an improvement of €122 million year on year, including €34 million of dividend distribution.
I remind you that of these €217 million, the IFRS 16 impact is around €82.3 million. Moving on to the guidance for 2024. This is a like-for-like non-GAAP recurring guidance. We expect to reach, for the year, around €1.8 billion of revenues and EBITDA around €385 million, a net cash position of around €300 million, and a capex of about €135 million. Moving to a few slides about the Industrial Plan. We have a rolling Industrial Plan. The update, starting from page number 7, there is no change to our strategy, which is based on five pillars. At the first, there is sustainability, where we will be deploying over €100 million of capex in the period in sustainability investments. FUTURECEM continues to be at the core of our strategy.
We continue to push towards circularity, water recycling, and also we are starting with the CEM initiative in the carbon capture technology in Denmark, where we want to be fully operational by 2030. We filed a commitment to be aligned to SBTi scenario of 1.5 degrees Celsius, and we continue to work to preserve biodiversity and habitats and supporting local communities. With regards to the other pillars, innovations continue to be at the heart of our operations. We're focusing on low-carbon products like FUTURECEM and others, and we are increasingly utilizing artificial intelligence in our operating processes. With regards to competitiveness, we are digitalizing all our main processes, from manufacturing to logistics to procurement, and we also maintain a high-level profitability and seek to continue to operate and achieve efficiencies.
With regard to growth and positioning, we want to continue to capture growth opportunities via the utilization of new green products. We want to reinforce our vertical integration in the Nordics, Belgium, and Turkey, and we would like to keep our global white cement leadership. We will use also M&A opportunistically in core businesses. With regards to people and organization, we have a very strong drive towards a zero-accident policy. We are working to develop human capital, and we have in place a leadership program and a talent management and succession plan. We have also invested significant resources on the Cementir Academy to develop and enhance our managerial and behavioral skills.
On page eight, just to show that decarbonization drive is live across the value chain, starting from raw materials with the use of circular materials, in the energy side with the use of alternative fuels, district heating, and new green energy investment like solar and wind, and switch to natural gas and biomass in August from 2025. We are upgrading our plants, like the Kiln 4 in Belgium, for example. We are also working to reduce clinker ratio and to improve our heat consumption in our manufacturing process through waste heat recovery. Logistics, which is an important cost element, we are working on predictive maintenance. We are investing in green transportation fleet, especially in the Nordics. We are also working on network and route optimization and e-procurement. This is clearly with the overriding investment in FUTURECEM and the adoption of new technology like CCS.
On FUTURECEM , just one slide of page nine. This is a key pillar of our strategy. As you know, this is a low-carbon technology that we have developed in-house and allows for a 30% reduction in CO2 emission compared to ordinary Portland without compromising the chemical or physical characteristics. We have in place a pretty aggressive rollout plan that will bring FUTURECEM to represent around 51% of total volumes of cement sold in Europe by 2030 and around 60% of gray cement volumes by the same time. Moving on to page 10 to illustrate our decarbonization drive. As you can see, these are scope one emissions. We have further upped the bar to reduce our carbon emission by reducing the emissions that we want to achieve by 2030.
As you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, we aim at achieving 915 kg of CO2 per ton by 2030 in white cement and 718 kg of CO2 per ton in gray cement by the same time. You also see below the graph the trajectory of the clinker ratio, which is declining from around 80% in 2023 to 78% and 64% in white and gray cement, respectively. Moving on to CCS, page 11. We have a couple of pilot projects underway. We have started already a pilot plant in Aalborg for the capture of CO2 using amine solvents and new heat integration methods. We are also participating in another big project that kicked off in November 2023, which is called ConsenCUS, which, again, in Aalborg, uses an electrochemical CO2 emission reduction technology.
We are also investing heavily in PPA contracts, so long-term contracts for renewable energy generation and direct purchase of electricity from alternative sources. This is, again, another important pillar of our decarbonization strategy. To summarize, on page 12, you see here the capex highlights. You can see on the left-hand side the major investments in sustainability, this €100 million cumulative three-year investment program, which will encompass a number of initiatives, including Kiln 4 upgrade, switch to natural gas in Aalborg, CCS preliminary studies, and a number of other initiatives you can see here. On the right-hand side, you see the split and the breakdown between sustainability capex and maintenance capex over the Industrial Plan period. To finalize the presentation, the last couple of slides, page 13, you see here the financial objectives to 2026. You see that revenues are expected to reach around €2 billion.
This is a 5%-6% sales compound growth rate in the period. That is, we expect a moderate increase in volumes with stronger volume growth in 2024, except for China. We also expect prices to be broadly stable or moderately up. As far as EBITDA, we expect to reach around €425 million in 2026. Clearly, we are starting from quite high comparable figures because we reached two years in advance. Our objective, it was a 2025 objective, was already reached in 2023. So clearly, the EBITDA progression is a bit more muted. Still, we have a number of initiatives supporting this absolute growth from capacity optimization in Egypt and Belgium to the fact that we will face a bit of a headwind in some selected input cost increase.
We are, on average, short about 250,000 tons of CO2 per annum, including a step up in 2026 due to regulatory changes. You see the EBITDA margin after a big spike up in 2023 is just normalizing to the average historical margin level. The average yearly capex is €112 million, which is a ratio of about 4%-5% to sales. And then, as already mentioned, a cumulative sustainability capex of €100 million. The most important, I would say, line is the last one. We expect to end 2026 with a net cash position of €600 million. That means generating a cumulative half a billion euro of free cash flow before dividends. We also expect dividend payout to be in the 20% - 25% range, therefore a progressive dividend policy. Lastly, just the last slide on the comparison with the previous Industrial Plan.
As you can see here that the sales remains broadly the same. We've upped the EBITDA in absolute terms. The yearly capex is broadly unchanged. The net cash position is increased by over $100 million. So this is the presentation, and I will now hand over to you for any questions you may have to [Foreign language] . Thank you.
This is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchstone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Emanuele Gallazzi with Equita. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for taking my question, and thank you for the presentation.
I have three questions. The first one is on Turkey. Last year, you defined Turkey as a wild card, and I think on 2023, the performance was very good. I would like to understand which is your view on the country now and what are you including in the business plan. The second one is on the 2024 guidance. If you can just elaborate a little bit more on your assumption for volumes and pricing and maybe giving us a sense of the negotiation you had with your client in the Nordics. Still on the guidance and on the EBITDA, the guidance is pointing to a 6% decline. Can you just comment on which country are you expecting this decline? This 6% decline from which country is basically driven? Thank you. In Turkey, we saw a very nice increase during 2023.
We went from nearly 20, we increased nearly around 40, 45 million [EBITDA]. On the sense of next year, we expect from the moment that there will be the election in the main cities around March. Also, you have seen that the head of the central bank has been appointed, the new one, just this weekend. The upturn in the rates would continue. We see a bit of softness for the economy during 2024. Part, I mean, more than half of what, let me say, we expect as a sort of setback from this year compared to 2024 against 2023, the EBITDA, it's around, let me say, $25 million less, already 24. We expect that half of this is mainly done by Turkey.
Also, you have to consider that the exchange rate is a big question mark, because we don't know. With still an inflation around 60%, the expectation is to go towards 20%, 25%, but we have to see the deployment of this. Then we think that in the Nordics, where we saw a smooth decline during the end of the year, we start to see an upturn during the second half of the year. In the last five years, the company increased with the same perimeter, the revenues around 50% and the EBITDA around 80%, 85%. So just to be prudent, we see a sort of consolidation. We still have two wars at our border. The Ukrainian border can affect the Baltics, and also the war in Gaza can affect Egypt.
We are cautious. We don't know if our cautiousness is right, but sometimes, even if you run a lot, you need to rest. We see a stable situation in the energy prices, both on electricity and petrol and gas. Mainly, the quantity should start to rebound in the second half. This is our view for 2024. Mainly, Turkey is 50% of the gap that you see. We have to see if this materializes or not. Especially after the election that will be during March, we will have a clearer idea. [Foreign langauge]. For guidance on volume price.
Yes. [Foreign language] EBITDA 6% decline.
Yes. I think I don't know if I missed something that you asked.
No. Maybe any comment on pricing.
No. The pricing, let's say, except for Turkey, but Turkey is mainly also the translation in euro of the Turkish lira that can flick a little bit. But we see in the Northern countries, the prices are stable. Also, the big project on the Fehmarn is starting to kick in. Also, as we mentioned, you can see here, we are planning to restart our second line in Egypt in the second half of the year. It is logical that today we are aware that from the technical point of view, we can start in the second half. If the area is involved in other things, mainly due to the war in Gaza, we don't know if we can postpone due to the six months due to security reasons.
These are, but let's say that the number of what we expect in 2024 is just 385, and they say $15 million is coming from Turkey. The others are minors but are spread in all the perimeter, so are peanuts from my point of view. We continue to see a solid cash flow, including higher capex. As I said, this 2024, it's a year of consolidation for what we see at this point. Then we might upgrade or downgrade during the year, looking at, you know that in the last quarter of the year, there will be also the election in the United States, and I think in April, May, there will be the election in Europe.
This year is not easy to decode the cipher in terms of macro signals. Also, the central banks, as you know, have now stopped increasing the rates, but there is also uncertainty when they will start to lower the rates. This also can affect some macro projections.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Very clear.
The next question is from Matteo Bonizzoni with Kepler. Please go ahead. Matteo Bonizzoni, your line is open.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. I have two questions. One is a follow-up on this, let's say, guidance for 2024, which is for a 6% EBITDA decline. You have said, correct me if I'm wrong, that €50 million of this decline are coming from Turkey. But you also say that pricing is not going down. Cost, I don't know if you can elaborate, but I don't think they're going up, if any. If we look at least at the spot commodities, but it might be different for you because of the hedging. Spot commodities, which are relevant for you, are not going up, are going, if any, down. So if prices are not going down and commodity prices are improving, maybe just to understand what kind of safety buffer you have included in this guidance, clearly it's now very early in the year.
It makes sense that you stay with a little bit of caution now because we don't know what is going to happen. We are only beginning of February. But just to understand the rationale of projecting an EBITDA which goes down by €25 million, 6%, in a scenario in which prices are not going down and cost, at least the spot commodities, are improving. And then I have a question on the cumulated free cash flow for the plan. In three years, you are guiding €500 million free cash flow. But the yearly capex, at the end of the day, is not about depreciation because the yearly capex is €112 million, which is, if any, slightly below the depreciation.
I was calculating a little bit of approximate bridge, and to get to €500 million, I assume that there is some working capital absorption or some assumption also of working capital, which I don't see here, if you can clarify, because in my bridge, you should be closer to €600 million than to €500 million. So I just want to have a little bit of color on the various parts of the cash flow bridge in the three-year period. Thanks.
Starting from your last question, let's say that, as I said, when you forecast for a year, you have some uncertainty. When you forecast for three years, you have bigger uncertainty. So it is true that, let's say, frankly speaking, the average free cash flow after tax, so before dividend, it's around $200 million. But here, we have put around $170 million, that is $500 million, just because we don't know the exchange rate. We need also to say a little buffer because if we also improve the revenues from $1.7 billion to $2 billion and we keep the working capital in terms of percentage at the same level, we might have an increase in absorption of capital. Then going back to the cost structure, I confirm that we see and we are aged partly more than 50% the energy cost.
We don't see a scenario where the energy costs are more or less the same. But we see some inflation in the personnel costs, for sure, in the various countries. Considering that we have revenues of between $1.7 and $2 billion in the plan, even 1%, 2%, or 3% change can bring $10 million of difference in the EBITDA. Then in Turkey, it's just a cautious approach because it's a volatile country. If we went from two years ago that we were close to zero, and now we are around $70 million, there is the possibility, even in the stock market, of some retracement.
It's just a cautious approach because we don't want to sell dreams, but I want to sell reality. The company is performing well. It's producing a very good cash flow. We increased nearly five percentage points of EBITDA. That's for an industrial company. It's a big improvement. You are aware that this year, our targets in the industrial plan were nearly $50 million or $70 million or $50 million or $60 million below what we realized. If we are well above our target of the industrial plan, we already reached in the former industrial plan of 2022, 2024, 2023, 2025, already the target of 2025, I think it is normal that you can expect a little bit of retracement.
I don't want to be too pushy because there is no reason to be pushy.
Thank you.
The next question is from Tobias Woerner with Stifel Europe. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. Number one, when we look at your cash position, which seems to be growing as we speak and you're taking a conservative approach, other than decarbonization, what other opportunities do you see now? Are you becoming more positive on M&A opportunities? That's the first question. The second question relates to the CCUS project you mentioned here in Denmark. I mean, maybe you can give us a little bit more flavor. Firstly, well, do you expect any EU subsidies here, or are you applying for EU subsidies for this project? And what sort of OPEX would you assume or OPEX costs would you assume at the end of it? Do you have some competitive advantage in terms of location? And then just lastly, you seem to be one of the more highly exposed companies to housing.
I was wondering what sort of developments you're seeing at the moment coming from these markets. Thank you.
In M&A, we still have limited view on the future because, as you know, we don't see so far a full or much major deployment of the CCUS technologies. But compared to a couple of years ago, we have some more visibility on some technology. So we are in talk with two main industrial players that they might supply to us the technology to decarbonize. One thing, as you imagine, is the capex. There are more certainty about capex than two years ago. There are some still some question marks about OPEX because the big question mark is still the energy intensity. And then when you talk about energy intensity, you have also to apply the cost of energy.
Looking at the past two years, it's difficult to forecast from the past two years to a price that spiked to €300 per MW. Now we are around €70, €80 to say, "Okay, this is the basis for the next eight-10 years." For sure, the green energy will cost more. But as I said before, we are not forced to invest in the cement directly. We can also invest in the side business that can help our business to grow or to reduce the cost, like in green energy, I mean, in wind and solar power. I think that our location in Europe, we have only two big plants compared to other players that have a lot of plants.
Our location, I think, is one of the best because we are in the Baltic Sea, close to the North Sea, where there are the exhausted oil wells that can be injected with CO2. Also it seems that in Denmark, there are some salt deposits where you can inject onshore CO2. But this has to be more scrutinized in the next months.
I think that during this year, we will have a clearer picture for us on which side the decarbonization path and the cost and the opportunities because having this strong net financial position can give us also the opportunity to decarbonize faster or to increase our perimeter where other players that are leveraged or have limited financial capacity can have difficulties in reaching the target. Remember that starting from 2026, the allocation there will be a certain cut in the allocation. As already said, in these couple of years, it's sort of limbo. But then starting from 2026, there will be a cut year by year. If you don't have a clear path, you are forced to close down.
You see that some players, even bigger, are starting to close down some capacity in Germany because they don't have the possibility to decarbonize at good cost. Also, there is the possibility that some small players can exit the market because they are, especially now that the rates are higher, they cannot survive the cost of upgrading the plant. On our CO2 situation, I think that our average need for the next three years is around, as an average, 200,000 tons, 250,000 tons. That is better than our previous forecast. On housing, the only weak market as this year happened, I mean, as in 2023, we see softness in the U.S.
But even if the market, from our point of view, is bottoming in the Nordics, so we should start to see some pickup in demand in the second half. But the price dynamics are more interesting in the Nordics than in the USA, where also we have limited capacity and we import maybe from ourselves in Denmark or in Egypt. But there is also the freight cost. So for this reason, the USA has suffered this year. But we don't see a major pickup in the demand, but even a measured down in the demand.
Thank you very much. I mean, just as a follow-up quickly, are you buying at the moment CO2 at these prices?
Let's say that from an opportunistic year, yes, we buy sometimes. But just to cover our short position, we are not, let me say, speculating just to buy to resell after. But let me say we are short of these 200. So it's a small game. It's a small game.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Giuseppe Grimaldi with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for the presentation. The first question relates to the volume development, if you can share with us an update on current trading. I know that basically, you have different products in different geographies. So even a sort of ballpark number on volumes in the first two months, it could be helpful. The second question is around Egypt. You are going to, if I got it correctly, increase the capacity in the region, so basically turning up the plant, the existing plant. So I was curious to understand which is the end market that you are targeting with this new capacity. Is it Western Europe, U.S., Asia? Just to understand where do you want to sell the product. The final one is on pricing. The CO2 prices are going down.
I'm curious to understand if you saw smaller players that are trying to chase volumes, eventually lowering the pricing of the cement at the moment, and if you see this as a sort of potential scenario going forward. Thanks a lot.
Starting from your last question, no, I don't see the CO2 that, for me, temporarily, maybe is driven from the mild weather in Europe now because January has been quite difficult for the weather, especially in the Nordics. And also because there is a sort of rethinking of the ESG investment with some hedge funds that are exiting or they are paying in account big losses. And so I think that part of the downturn in the CO2 price is because some financial players are sort of unwinding their position. They are forced to unwind position. So I don't think that this trend will last for more than a few months. And so I don't think that this is a trend.
For this reason, I don't think that any player can mute the approach on the market just because the CO2 is €20 lower than what is the average of last year. As I said, starting from 2026, in nearly 22 months, there will be a sharp cut in the allowance. I think that anyway, it will be temporary for the price of the CO2 to start to pick up again. The other question is on volume development. We see in the gray market a rebound in the second half in the Nordics for us. In Turkey, we still see a strong market because of the earthquake, because of the neighborhood. Syria and the other countries have to rebuild a lot of things.
If one day Ukraine will also reach peace, the only country where you can supply cement in southeast Ukraine, where today there is the war, is Turkey because from Russia, I think it won't arrive. Ukraine, from the border of Europe, is from 500 km-1 ,000 km. The only reasonable way to reach Ukraine will be through the Black Sea. This is an opportunity when and if there will be peace. We don't see any sharp downturn in Turkey in terms of demand. Also, the government is fine. It's trying to curb the export from Turkey because in some parts of Turkey, there is no availability for domestic cement. This is today the situation.
I mean, the first months have been, let me say, for the Nordics, we saw during January, in some countries, even -30 . So the volumes are weak or have been weak. But we see starting now that the temperatures are coming back to the normal average, we are starting to see a pickup in the demand. So for what we have seen so far in five weeks, let me say, is more linked to the weather situation than from real demand. And our capacity that thought is a restart of our kiln, it's mainly for export and export for Europe and United States. [Foreign language]
Thanks a lot. Really clear.
The next question is from Alessandro Tortora with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Good evening to everybody. I have three questions for me. The first one is related to, as you mentioned before, the average needs you have in terms of CO2 deficit. The question is, if you already cover the needs over the plan over the next year, considering that you already mentioned some opportunistic purchases you can do on CO2, just to understand what's your strategy on this? The second question is on Turkey. You mentioned before in the call that around €70 million EBITDA on Turkey. Can you help me to understand if this is a figure basically no gap, but also excluding the recurring items you had in 2023 in Turkey? The third question is, again, on the capital allocation side, considering clearly that the company is still in the leverage mode.
First, why don't you think to raise a little bit, at least, the upper end of your payout ratio? And second, is there any possibility to see the company, for instance, restarting to think about maybe increasing some capacity in China or maybe looking also in other markets where maybe the ETS or, let's say, restrictive regulation on emission is not present? So maybe, let's say, new areas for you where you may think to invest. Thanks.
Lots of questions. Okay.
Sorry. Sorry, sorry.
CO2 for the years, that's it. We are, let me say, buying slowly 200,000 tons at €65. Let's say that is the average of last, let me say, 10 days. We are talking about €13 million. So it's a small amount considering our, let me say, cost base. So every week, we are buying something. So I don't think that even if we are buying even at €5 lower or even €10 higher, this can affect, let me say, the EBITDA, frankly speaking, because, I mean, the gap is around 200,000 tons. Let's say the gap will increase, I mean, toward 2026 because it's starting the cut. But now this year, let's say, it's below 200,000 tons.
The third quarter, IAS 29, but there are not exceptional items because the exceptional items that we have, non-GAAP figures this year is coming from the sale of some business mainly in U.K., in China, and in the Baltics. That were old ready-mix plant. In China, it was the old cement plant that we bought in 2010. We relocated to a zone that were close to this plant, but this plant now has a different zone from an industrial perspective. So we decided to sell it. There is nothing except the IAS 29 related that is affecting our figures of around €70 million for 2023.
Okay.
Looking at the payout ratio, let's say that I think in the last 20 years, we invested $1.7 billion for acquisition. So let's say it seems that $200 million, you can buy a single plant with $200 million today. With $600 million, probably a small company conglomerate. But let's say that we don't think that we change the policy for dividend payout even because if you are also to consider another thing that if you keep more or less EBITDA at the same level with a small increase for the next two or three years, this doesn't mean that the net profit because of the financial income that is the income that we will receive investing this cash will affect the net profit.
The net profit should continue to grow even if the EBITDA, let's say, is or will remain at the same level because you can imagine with €600 million at 3% or 4%, you can have some income, let's say, nice income in. This means that even the dividend should continue to increase because the dividend is linked to the net profit and not to the EBITDA.
Okay. Thanks.
Also, you asked about increasing the capacity. Let's say that today, some countries are not in the ETS system or system like this. But for example, Turkey has already announced last year that they want to convert starting from 2026. So we don't want to invest or to start a new investment in any country where probably in the next three to five years, they decide to convert to a certain ETS system. So they indirectly curb your capacity or our ability to sell for the medium-long term. For this reason, today it's difficult even in some countries like China, India, to invest because if in five years, they put a sort of threshold in the emission, then you can lose part of the future return of the asset. So this is the main reason.
It is better to invest in countries where you have the ETS system because the rules are clear. You know. Today, for example, in Europe, it's difficult to understand which will be the CO2 price in five years, in 10 years. But then you have the rules. You have the cap in the CO2. You know where there is a pathway you can go. The issue today is the technology that you can use to revamp the plant. But I think in the next two years, we are, I mean, as a sector, aware about the CAPEX and the OPEX. This should foster, let's say, starting from 2026, another round of consolidation. This is my expectation.
Okay. And just to clarify, let's say, a question on this last point that you mentioned on clearly, I work in the technology and, let's say, economically viable technology. It is probably too early today to say that if the EBITDA margin, basically, let's say you put as a target in 2026, 21% and something, let's say, in the region of 21% EBITDA margin, considering everything we're discussing on CCS and so on, if this is a level that basically could be deemed as sustainable going forward? You can even answer no, right? Or not yet. Just understand.
Let's say you saw that in one year, we went from 19% to 24%, 25%. I don't want to show the cards too early, but I continue to stress that having two plants in two very nice locations might be a competitive or a huge competitive advantage going forward. I continue to say, and you follow probably some of you follow me since the last 20, 30 years, that I don't want to announce something that I'm not sure more than 100%. But today it's difficult to say that the average from 2030 is 20%.
It can be even 30%, frankly speaking, because if some player will not, let me say, anymore in the market if the market is closed because of the CBAM, if you have a competitive advantage so your costs are lower, especially not for the carbon capture, but for the sequestration. In some areas, for example, the Iberic Peninsula, there are no places where you can store. Everybody in the Iberic Peninsula should, let me say, ship this CO2 one day to other places. This will cost for sure two or three times higher than can cost to us or to the players that are around, let me say, Baltic and North Sea. This can affect a lot of the profitability, frankly speaking, because if the cost is €20 for somebody, €80 for others, this can say, "Okay."
For us, the EBITDA can be 22%, but for another player here with a cost structure for cement very lean, can be 12% because they lost 8 points for shipping the CO2. So today, we are in this big question mark in some areas. For this reason also, even if there are the opportunities to invest our cash, we don't want to too early because if we need €50 to store the CO2, it can be a competitive disadvantage.
Okay. Okay. Thanks.
For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Bruno Permutti with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Two questions for me, if I may. The first one is related to the freight costs. I'd like to understand if you could have an impact or you are considering having an impact in your guidance from increasing freight costs. The second one was related to the expected recovery of the volumes in the Nordics for the second half of the year. Is there any specific project that you have in mind? So there is something specific that you have in mind when you believe that would be a recovery?
Yes. One more. Freight costs, let's say that we own part of the vessel, so we have long-term contracts. So let's say to ship cement, I mean, 80% of our volume, let's say that we have a sort of fixed cost. For sure, for spot contracts or especially for the energy where you pay, especially coal, the freight can add some extra cost, especially in this situation when you have the Red Sea that is not viable for shipping. But I think that it's not a big chunk of our business that can be afflicted by the increase of cost in shipping.
In Nordic and Baltics, besides, I mean, the main market, we have one big project that is starting in these weeks that is the Fehmarn, that is the tunnel that will link Germany with Denmark. It's a tunnel where we are going to, let me say, supply 1.2 million tons of cement in five years. This is the project. You know that sometimes the big projects can have delays, so.
Yeah. Okay.
It's an average of 200.
Thank you.
Mr. Bianconi, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. So thank you very much for your interest and your questions. We wish you a pleasant rest of your day and evening. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Have a nice evening. Bye-bye.
Bye.