Good afternoon, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Cementir Preliminary Results for 2025 and 2026-2028 Industrial Plan Update. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Marco Maria Bianconi, Chief M&A and IR Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody, and welcome to Cementir Holding 2025 Results Presentation and Industrial Plan Update. This is Marco Bianconi speaking. I'm here with our Chairman and Chief Executive, Francesco Caltagirone.
Good afternoon.
Who is happy to take your question at the end of my short presentation. So going to the presentation deck on page 5, we have highlights of the preliminary results, 2025. Revenue reached EUR 1.639 billion, -2.8% year-on-year. Non-GAAP revenue was flat at EUR 1.644 billion. There was a net EUR 97 billion negative impact from currency depreciation, mainly the Turkish lira versus the euro. Cement volumes were up by 3.1% in Turkey in particular, but also Egypt, Asia Pacific, and some volume reductions in Nordic and Baltic and Belgium. Ready-mix volumes were down by 4.8% due to negative performance in Turkey, Denmark, and Belgium, whereas aggregate volumes were up 3.4%.
EBITDA reached EUR 439.5 million, up almost 8% year-on-year. Non-GAAP EBITDA was EUR 460.2 million, up 15.3% year-on-year. This figure include EUR 52 million of net non-recurring gains, of which the major items are EUR 36 million capital gain from disposals, and EUR 19.7 million of insurance proceeds for the fire at Ghent plant in Belgium. 2024 figures include also EUR 4.4 million charges, non-recurring. Non-GAAP EBITDA, excluding both non-recurring items, was EUR 408.2 million, up 1.1%. Also, on EBITDA, there was almost a EUR 21 million negative FX impact due to translation, mainly from Turkish lira into euro. Profit before tax was EUR 286.3 million, up 0.5%.
Non-GAAP profit before tax, EUR 325 million, up 10%. Net cash position at the end of the year was EUR 465.1 million, an improvement of EUR 174.6 million year-on-year, including EUR 43.5 million of dividends by the parent company, EUR 9 million of dividends to third parties, and EUR 51 million proceeds from the disposals of Kars Çimento. On page 6, you can find our 2026 guidance. We expect for this year a revenue up around 5% to EUR 1.7 billion on a pro forma basis, excluding the contribution of Kars Çimento, which was sold on December 1st, 2025.
We also expect an EBITDA progression between 0% and 5% to a range between EUR 400 million and EUR 420 million for the year, and a net cash position at year-end, up by EUR 125 million- EUR 590 million. This is after CapEx of around EUR 128 million. This guidance refers to like-to-like ongoing operations, non-GAAP, and excluding any extraordinary items. Please bear in mind that the starting figures is pro forma and is restated, excluding the contribution of Kars Çimento, which was sold on December 1st, 2025. Now, moving to the industrial plan updates. Quickly on page 8, the five strategic pillars are unchanged. Just one highlight about sustainability. We continue to implement our CCS project in Denmark.
We are investing in value chain circularity and a number of renewable energy projects. As far as competitiveness, we are streamlining and standardizing all group processes. In terms of innovation, we are applying artificial intelligence to business processes, and we are working on widening our portfolio by including an increasing number of low carbon cement and other value-added solutions. As far as growth and positioning, we want to keep reinforcing our vertical integrated model in the three key countries, regions, Nordics, Belgium, and Turkey. And we want to keep our global white cement leadership, and we want to be opportunistic on M&A, if and when the opportunity arise.
We also are investing on our trading business and investing for further development there. As far as people and safety, we are implementing a Zero Accident Program, fostering a high performance culture focused on safety, and we are attracting talent, focusing on sustainability and innovation. Moving to page 9, just a few highlights regarding the key themes and trends in our industry, which we are addressing in our industrial plan, the first being climate change and decarbonization. There is a trend towards more stringent CO₂ and new building regulations across Europe, for sure, but a number of countries. There are a number of technological solutions for net zero, like CCS, which we are implementing, and there is increasing demand for low carbon products, which we are addressing through our future cement and D-Carb product ranges.
As far as urbanization and infrastructure gap, we see this trend of population growth and urban migration. There is an increased public-private infrastructure spending. Therefore, we believe there is significant pent-up demand for our products. As far as resource efficiency and circular economy, we are clearly fighting the rising energy and raw material cost. We are increasingly using alternative fuels and recycled materials, and we are embracing circularity in every aspect. The last one being innovation, digitalization, and efficiency. We believe that there is a trend towards new and more efficient building methods, and there's clearly a trend towards a reduced content of clinker into cement and reduced content of cement in concrete. Moving to page 10, these are our Scope 1 emissions, 2030 d ecarbonization targets.
As you can see, we are targeting a 42% reduction in gray cement emissions per ton of cement equivalent, versus the 2020 baseline, and this is an objective that is beyond the taxonomy level. As far as white cement, the reduction is 20% versus 2020, and again, you can see the reduction in 2030 to 730 kg per ton of cement equivalent. Turning page to 11, we have the actual project slide. Just to provide you some more information regarding this project. As you know, this is a pioneering project, one of the largest onshore systems, multi-stream in Europe, meaning that it's processing emissions for both white and gray cement through a single operating unit.
Thanks to this proprietary and innovative technology, Air Liquide , our technology partner, will capture, purify, liquefy approximately 95% of the CO₂ emitted by the cement kilns. This project targets 1.5 million tons of CO₂ to be captured annually. We have been awarded a EUR 220 million grant by the European Innovation Fund, and we expect this project to be operational from 2030, according to the timing of the new logistic infrastructure, which depends on third-party responsibility. Moving on to the awards on page 12. As you can see, we have a continued ESG commitment. We have been awarded during 2025 with a number of recognitions. CDP included Cementir in the A List for the second time. We have been awarded by Statista and Financial Times, one of--
We've been appointed as one of Europe's Climate Leaders, and in June 2025, Cementir was also included in the TIME ranking of the world's 500 Most Sustainable Companies. You can see underneath the table, where you can see the progression in the rating from main agencies on our company. On page 13, just a flash regarding innovation. We continue to invest in transition towards lower carbon products. We have solution for low carbon cement and solutions for low carbon concrete. In the low carbon cements, we are adopting the FUTURECEM technology, which saves up to 30% of CO₂. Clearly there is a progressive shift to blended cement with lower carbon footprints in all regions, leveraging on additional SCM materials and limestone.
There is a global expansion of the D-Carb white cement family, which is reducing emissions by around 15%. And we're providing transparency and credibility on this product through an EPD declaration, showing environmental footprint and life cycle impact. As far as concrete is concerned, we are promoting sustainable ready-mix concrete through circularity and low carbon cements. We have a new low carbon range in Denmark, Norway, called Universal. We're also launching C-Green range in Belgium and France, and we also are extensively using low carbon concrete in Turkey, where we are front runners. A few slides regarding the financials on the industrial plan. On slide 15, you can see the main highlights.
Those figures exclude the intensification of geopolitical tension and any extraordinary event, of course, and you can see that the revenue we targeting is at EUR 1.95 billion by 2028, which implies a compounded annual growth rate of 6%-7% from a base pro forma of EUR 1.6 billion. Again, the pro forma is calculated by excluding the contribution of Kars Çimento, which was sold on December 1st, 2025. As far as EBITDA, we are targeting a 4.7% compound on EBITDA growth in the three years, which will lead us to target EUR 460 million of EBITDA, with an EBITDA margin of around 23.6%.
The net cash position is clearly on the same perimeter, is going to grow by EUR 330 million, from EUR 465 million to around EUR 800 million by 2028 year end. Just the last couple of slides. On page 16, a few details about the targets. As I mentioned, the revenue compounded growth rate in the period is based on a moderate increase in cement volumes in the main geographies, namely Nordic and Baltic, where we expect a residential construction improvement from 2027. A higher export volume from Egypt, where both operating lines will be running, and an improved trading in Belgium, China, and Malaysia. Partly offset by lower volumes in Türkiye in 2026, both because of the disposal of Kars Çimento and also for trading reasons.
Volumes, compounded growth of 2%-3% for cement and 1% for both RMC and aggregates. We expect prices to be generally in line with local inflation, particularly in Türkiye, reflecting higher energy, raw material, and CO2 costs. As far as EBITDA, we've already touched upon the growth, which we expect in every region, with the exception of Türkiye. We also note the increase that we expect in raw material costs, electricity, and certain fuels, and there will be some negative impact from currency volatility, namely Turkish lira and Egyptian pounds. We are on average, short 130,000 tons of CO2, including a step up in 2027 due to lower free allowances at our European plants. The margin will be mean reverting, slightly to what we think is a long-term average.
The maintenance and expansion CapEx is within the industry norms, between 5%-6%, around EUR 129 million per year, with a cumulative CapEx of EUR 386 million, of which EUR 77 million for sustainability initiatives, including EUR 16 million for the ACCSION project in 2026. Please bear in mind that ACCSION net CapEx group share from 2027 will be around EUR 120 million in the following three years. The profile of net cash out will depend on the timing of the logistic infrastructure execution, which is a third-party responsibility. Please note also, lastly, that cumulative free cash generation, free cash flow generation will be around EUR 330 million, with a progressive dividend payment in the range between 20%-25%. This leads me to the last slide, which is the CapEx highlights.
I said, EUR 386 million cumulative investment, of which EUR 77 million for sustainability, and EUR 16 million for CCS. The main projects are ACCSION in Denmark, wind turbines in Belgium, facility upgrades for FUTURECEM, natural gas transition in Aalborg and Ghent. This ends my presentation, and I give the floor to Mr. Caltagirone, who is happy to take your question. Thank you very much.
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Wim Hoste of KBC Securities.
Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. I would have three questions, please. The first one is on the CBAM regulation. Is that having any impact on your businesses and markets? Can you maybe comment on that? The second question would be on in Egypt. You opened the second line last year. Can you explain us how that is driving growth in that market and also what the profitability impact of that growth? I think you mentioned in the industrial plan that you see a pickup in volumes in Egypt, so a bit of more clarity or granularity on that would also be helpful. And then a third question from my side would be on M&A.
In the industrial plan slide or sorry, there was also mentioning that M&A is still a possibility. I think in the past you were a bit cautious to do M&A, looking at all the regulatory changes on the environment, et cetera. Is that attitude now changing, or are you still maintaining an organic growth focus for the short term? Those are the questions. Thank you.
Thank you for your question. The first one about CBAM, so far, frankly speaking, we haven't seen a lot, especially because in the northern country and Northern Europe, the weather has been so bad that especially, as you can imagine, during the last part of the year and in the first part, you use the inventory that they have been built in the previous quarter. So now, I think, from the moment that the bad weather hit the business, between 10% and 20%, it is difficult to evaluate if CBAM in place have, let me say, helped or not the business.
So we need a few weeks or a couple of months, probably the first quarter, the first half of the year, to understand better how it is working. In Egypt, we expect that this year, the problem that we suffered last year for qualities have already been resolved. We expect that we increase our sales, especially to the United States. The El Arish port is already working. For the first time, we sent a vessel of 35,000 tons directly to the States. So we expect to increase the profitability of Egypt that nearly 50%-60% this year should be around EUR 18 million of the EBITDA. Regarding M&A, we have the same, let me say, attitude. We would like to expand our business and perimeter.
I know that, especially in the latest weeks, there has been rumors about, let me say, possible change and, or enhancement of the CO2 framework. This framework has been built in the last 20 years. I don't think that in a few months or weeks can be, let me say, amended or changed. Probably, I think that, because I expect more question on this, let me say, item, that Europe realized that has a competitive gap, on, for sure, electric vehicles against China. And we have seen Stellantis what have done a few days ago in terms of write-off. And, the competitors from Eastern Asia are eating up their market, especially now in Germany, and they are suffering.
The second thing, the second issue is about energy production. You know that in the last few years, most, or a lot of, coal-fired plant has been, let me say, announced the phase out. I think that the world, and especially Europe and United States, will need more energy, so there will be more emission. The issues today, I don't think, is that to swap back, from, let me say, green emission to, let me say, gray emission, is that probably we need more energy, and, in a short period of time, more energy can comes only from fired coal plant, and this will increase the emission. So probably a release on certain, level of, let me say, quotas, can help, more energy production.
I don't think, frankly speaking, that after you have poured billions and billions in grants, especially in cement and steel, will now revert its, let me say, attitude. And, you know, even if the phase out of certain, let me say, critical threshold in CO2 emission will not, let me say, change the attitude. That in this sector, I can say that, especially from the biggest, bigger competitor is quite constructive because we are starting to implement, let me say, the technology to produce a green cement, probably in the next five years. But today, except as you all know, a small plant in Norway owned by Heidelberg, in the next five years, no one will produce low carbon cement.
So I don't know how this can, let me say, affect, let me say, the system or the balance sheet of the cement player in the next five years. Then, if we will have more, let me say, probably in the phase two, I mean, after 2035-2050, to have, let me say, more comfortable, let me say, path to to arrive to zero cement, probably this can help. But now, I don't think, but this is my personal attitude, that, let me say, they will - they want to stop or to slow down, because compared to United States, for example, as you know, 90%, or more or less 90% of the cement in the United States is owned by European players, and they can transfer the technology from Europe to United States.
That is the only, I think, way, because usually we take the technology from United States and we bring to Europe. I don't think that the cement sector, that today is at the edge of this technical shift, should, let me say, stop, or Europe should push to stop. But let's say, we are at the very beginning. They have started to talk about announcement of the framework, but probably we have to wait June or July to understand which will be, let me say, the future framework for CO2 emission for us.
Okay, very helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Matteo Bonizzoni of Kepler Cheuvreux .
Yes, thank you, and, good evening. I have some question. The first one is relating on ACCSION. What you're writing in your press release on ACCSION is that, in 2026, you will expand EUR 60 million of CapEx. But the sum in terms of CapEx has increased from EUR 100 million to EUR 100 million, or you are guiding, if I'm right, EUR 90 million to EUR 100 million, now it has become EUR 120 million. And above all, you are also saying that, the 2027, 2028 CapEx figure are not including ACCSION because you are waiting these, let's say, higher visibility or details on the, third party, public and private entities CapEx for the logistic and storage and so on. So what is at stake here?
You have not put the CapEx because you don't know the timing, you have not put the CapEx because you don't know exactly if they will fulfill this investment? Help us understand what is at stake here in terms of your decision not to put this CapEx in your CapEx plan. Then regulation on CO2, second question you have partly answered. Clearly, is a hot topic now, you know, because the market is reasoning about the potential impact of this revision, which so far has been just leaked by press sources, by the way. And so I would say this relates the phase out of reallocation, which could be postponed. This relates to CAP and other technicalities.
So my question is, in case this revision is going to prove true, would you enter a sort of stand wait and see and stand by stance on your D-Carbonization projects, or absolutely not, you are, in any case, committed to go ahead according to your previous plan? Third question, if I may, is price premium for green cement. There is a debate in the market. You have just said that currently, only Heidelberg Materials is selling a small quantity compared to the overall market of green cement. So, how can we ensure that the green cement will enjoy a good price premium or not in a mass market situation? Because there are various versions here. Somebody is saying that absolutely, this is very unlikely, okay?
That the market will be ready to pay a decent premium, okay, or a big premium. And other sources which are, for example, other material, clearly are more constructive. How big part of the equation of the return is price premium, yes or not? What's your view? So I mean, it's very early days, so I think it's very difficult to provide an answer to this, but maybe you have a view. Last is Belgium, if I may. Where we are on the European grant? So I'm understanding that you could achieve a grant in Belgium maybe this year or next year. And also, given that it's not a coastal plant, differently from Aalborg, and is also smaller, slightly smaller plant, in terms of return and cost to do the carbon capture and storage, how it differs from Aalborg? Thanks.
So let's start with the first ACCSION project. So we wanted to put, I mean, what is already approved by our board, as for, let me say, investment, and for sure, we have put this around EUR 70 million, because the electric line and transformer that will allow the plant to ask for more energy after the CCS implementation. Regarding the remaining EUR 120 million, because as you can imagine, this is a new technology, we are talking about contract that, let me say, will or contractor that will supply material in four or five years. And so there is also the review in the inflation, and you know that especially the metals, but the price of raw material are increasing.
So our, let me say, forecast of EUR 100 million, we have rounded to EUR 120 million. I think it's a minor adjustment. And we are going to put this EUR 120 million, that is roughly EUR 30 million per year for the three or four years, depending on when we will have the complete, let me say, scenario, when we will be aware of the whole scenario. Because, beside our investment in the plant together with Air Liquide, we need to have the connection to the pipe, with the pipeline that is built by a public company, Energinet. And then we also need the final certification of the storage area.
This will arrive between the first half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. So if there are delays, I think, we need to postpone these EUR 120 million of investment. So for this reason, we haven't put so far, we just, let me say, underline that, the costs are there, but, we think that probably, frankly speaking, because if, we, we have to wait the half of 2027, we will start to spend in 2028 as earlier. So in the, the last year of this, industrial plan, and as you can imagine, I don't think that we are going, to spend all the EUR 120 million in one year.
So this is the reason why we prefer to have this kind of approach. The second question is about the green cement. I mean, today, as I said, there is no green cement availability except for a small quantity, because even in Norway, they are in a ramp up. So the plant is, let me say, the plant should produce 400,000 tons of green cement. But today, from my learning, we are around the half because there is a ramp up, and this is usual. So today there is no premium price, and probably we are already asked by the Norwegian government to buy, because we produce, as you know, ready-mix in Norway, and we buy cement, and they are, let me say, obliged the customer to use this cement, especially for public works.
So, we will buy some small quantities of this green cement made by Heidelberg Materials in Norway. But, let's say, I think that in the next five years, this kind of, let me say, mandatory usage of this cement should be, let me say, enlarged, especially in the Nordic country, because most of the cement, green cement production will be there. So I am aware, because I had recently direct talk with the Danish government, that especially after the Greenland issue with the United States, they are not, let me say, they don't want, let me say, to change their approach, especially for this Green Deal, because somebody in USA are telling exactly the opposite. So I don't know.
I am, let me say, an entrepreneur, but let's say I am. Just ten days ago, I could, let me say, realize that there is a strong willingness to go forward. And also, we have applied for the Danish fund that should supply another tranche of grant for this project, but we will be aware of the final result of this after Easter. So, when we will have the grant, we already have received the grant from European Union.
As I said, the execution risk for this project should be very limited, considering also that we are the only producer in Denmark, and so I don't think that other, let me say, we are other player that can continue to sell cement, let me say, that won't be greener, let me say. On CCB, the project is more or less the same. The only difference is that in Belgium, there is not on.
Offshore.
Offshore storage. Today, the design of the project consider that we ship the CO2 by pipeline, that has to be built, to the port of one port in Belgium, and then transferred by ship to the Aalborg port, and then injected in the same storage area of Aalborg. For sure, I expect that before, because we have, let me say, at last, nearly two years of delay compared to Aalborg, that the price should be lower and even the size. We have applied for a grant for Belgium last year. We were, let me say-
Qualified.
We were qualified, but they didn't have, let me say, enough funds. So we expect we don't have to submit another time. We just need that, they refinance, let me say, and they should refinance, for, for our sector, for other sector this year. So we expect, that this year, probably, September-October, November, we should have, let me say, some news. I don't know if I missed some, questions?
No, thanks. Just a short one. What is the fee which you are going to pay to Air Liquide? Because Air Liquide is going to do most of the CapEx, no? I mean, I don't want to know EUR 1 million, but if I think they are doing most of the CapEx, so they will want to be remunerated now. Can you confirm that?
Yes. I cannot say this now because it also depends on the timeframe. They can have, as usual, as you can imagine, every kind of project, a sort of premium. If they go faster, they— Because the technology is provided by them, it's not provided by us. So there is also a sort of level of satisfaction between, I don't know, I can say between 90% of capture and 100%. So it depends where we will land at the end with the real capture of CO2 between 90% and 100%. So frankly speaking, it's too early now. It also depends, because the grant that we should receive from the Danish government should help to, let me say, build the right, let me say, cost formula for this cement.
Thank you.
The next question is from Alessandro Tortora, Mediobanca.
Yes, hi. Good evening, to everybody. I have a few question. Okay, the first one is just a follow-up on the ACCSION project, just to understand that. So you mentioned the possibility, you know, to get this Danish fund. Is it something that is gonna help on the CapEx, sorry, on or on the OpEx side of the ACCSION project? This is the first question. The second question is on, let's say, the Turkey, you know, outlook. So if I understood well, I know you, you mentioned several reason on top of the change perimeter, why Turkey is gonna, you know, have a negative contribution in the EBITDA in 2026.
Can you give us an idea of what are, let's say, the moving parts, considering that the low end of your EBITDA guidance is basically not assuming zero growth? So, which kind, let's say, of U.S. outlook you see, because you also mentioned this, of course, earthquake demand that is gonna normalize in Turkey this year. So this is the second question. And the third one is just a comment on, let's say, this steep decline in CO2 prices we saw over the last month.
Let's say, maybe this change into CO2 prices, this decline, may change your commercial approach this year, from a pricing standpoint, or let us say, your price listing, in a certain way, pegged a little bit to CO2 prices. So just understand how you're gonna manage this change into the CO2 price outlook. Thanks.
Danish Fund is a fund that will supply us, let me say, a balancing from higher energy costs, and will be on OpEx, and will last 15 years, starting 2030. So it will last until 2045, and should contribute to lower and balance the extra cost for energy. But today, we don't know how much will be, because we will know in April. The second question is about this year forecast. As I said, the perimeter is a bit very it changed just a matter of 1.5%. We have to take—
We were slightly positive in November when we built this industrial plan, but today, after six weeks of a very harsh winter, is difficult to expect that let's say we can let me say do better. Because let's say we expect that till the end of February there will be let me say a lower output in Scandinavia, in Turkey, and partly also in Northern Europe. But this is affect the whole market. For sure, this will be recovered, but a couple of months, this is the worst winter in the last 15 years in the Nordics. Starting your last question about the declining of the CO2 price. This is, I think, is not affecting because, let's say we pass the cost, as it is, on monthly basis, on an average, to the customer. So if it increase, the price will increase, if it will decrease, we'll, let me say, we will decrease. So it's like, VIP, right? So something that we collect, and we give back.
Okay. And this is something, let's say, this is a revision, like, I don't know, a monthly revision you do? Or, if it is, let's say, something you trigger. Just understand, because as I said again.
No, no, there is, we charge the customer with a formula on a monthly basis. Monthly basis.
Okay. And so is this formula used, let's say, in all your countries, or we are referring, I don't know, to all the countries, I'll say, except for, I don't know, Turkey? Just understand the perimeter of this formula.
We chart this in the country where, let me say, in France, Belgium, and Scandinavia. Yes, we use this formula, but this, I think, is the most widespread formula used by also other competitors. Because no, nobody want to hedge or to leverage on CO2. I mean, it's a tax.
Okay. Okay.
It's prevented as it is.
Okay, thanks a lot. [Foreign language]
The next question is from Egor Sonin of AlphaValue.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for picking my questions. For 2026- 2028, your plan assume higher raw material, electricity, and fuel costs. Is it possible to provide EBITDA sensitivity to change in energy and raw material costs, or at least the or at least some colors or how we could think about it? Like, what what will be the most costly raw materials? What what would be the most expensive higher costs which we can foresee in in our estimations? Thank you.
Let's say that in our forecast we put, let me say, an increase, but we are hedged at 75% in the energy, both petcoke and gas, and also in petcoke and coal. And coal. So and the electricity, sorry. We are, let me say, covered in full mostly this year, and as I said, nearly 75%, 2027 and 2028. So let's say that if the price increases, probably we won't suffer anything main, anything meaningful. And the same if the price will be lower, our cost structure will remain flat. So this is when you hedge. So we don't expect, but most of this uncertainty mainly is the exchange rate against the US dollar, because you pay petcoke with dollars.
Also in the electricity, it seems that the peak of 2022 now has been, let me say, fully digested, and the price curve, I mean, for the next two or three-- Let's say that today, some suppliers are all even open to make contracts that can last 10 or 15 years flat, as you can, let me say. So, I don't think that cost inflation should hamper our industrial plan, frankly speaking.
Okay, thank you very much for your answer.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Bruno Permutti of Banca Intesa.
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask something about the guidance you gave of 6%-7% revenue CAGR for 2026 - 2028. So, on the recovery that you expect in the Nordic and Baltic from 2027, is there something specific that you are thinking of in terms of infrastructure projects that will accelerate in that period? So if you can elaborate a little bit on that. And, as for Turkey, beyond 2026, what is the outlook you have in mind?
Do you believe that there will be an increase in demand from also for export from Turkey, and did that this could create some opportunity also for the domestic market? It is a realistic option. And lastly, on the prices, what is the outlook you see in the short term for 2026, if you see some price pressure somewhere? Thank you.
Starting from, let me say, the last one, the only place where today we see some mild price pressure is just in China because of the economic environment, but let's say we are in white cement, and usually, let me say, this is not so, let me say, big. But on the other geographies, it seems that the framework is constructive, I mean, stable, with a mild increment.
One year to what did you say?
Turkey after 2026, as you can imagine, Turkey is the first, I mean, supplier of the Mediterranean area, and as we have already shared with you, a few times, is the first candidate to supply reconstruction in Ukraine... already started in Syria and partly in Gaza Strip. For sure, we are in the later stages of, let me say, the earthquake reconstruction, but and it's difficult to have an agenda on what will happen in Ukraine, on what will happen even in Iran, because Iran is the neighbor, so we don't know which is the outcome there. But also, Syria is the only country that is really, let me say, started to have an inflow of Turkish cement.
Also on Gaza Strip, you are aware that the talks are open, and we don't know. So it's difficult to say, to say that we might see. We haven't considered in our industrial plan, we are conservative, but we think that this let me say should build up in the next years, for sure. And Turkey is let me say the only candidate, because of this capacity, and is surrounded by I mean this big possibility to export cement. Nordic and Baltic, I mean, mainly, let me say, in the last three years, not unlike most players, I mean, from France to Nordics, we are experienced let me say lower volume, especially macro reason. So we expect because the rates are lower.
Besides, now that for sure, I think, as I said, the first quarter and the first half will be hit by the, let me say, atmospheric issues, that the demand, should, let me say, broaden. There are no partic- one reason also, because this year, I mean, we are expecting, let me say, flat EBITDA compared to last year, is because, let me say, the Fehmarnbelt project is, the delay on the project is growing. Probably now, I mean, because it's the Danish government, they expect a two-year delay. That is not two years from the start, but let me say that this project are developing slowly.
We have lowered, for this year, nearly 30%-40% of the quantity that will go to this project. But for sure, then we will have another 2 years more at the end. So these are, let me say, our expectation, but are mainly the macro environment, the increasing in quantities.
Thank you.
For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one. The next question is from Carlo Maritano of Intermonte.
Hi, good evening, everyone. I just have one question on the net cash guidance for 2028. So if I start from your expectation from 2026, it seems that there is only EUR 100 million per year of cash generation in the later years of your business plan. So I was wondering what is driving this cautiousness, and if this target include the CapEx that is not included in the other slide. So just to understand what are the building block of this guidance? Thank you.
Yes, Carlo. In fact, the cumulative cash flow we are expecting EUR 330 million three years, so it's about EUR 110 million of free cash flow per year. Please bear in mind that this is after the payment of a progressive dividend, which we expect to grow in line with the earnings, with a dividend payout ratio of 20%-25%. So these are clearly-- I mean, it's not particularly conservative. I think it's a realistic scenario, and I think it's broadly in line with the historical cash generation of the companies. It's north of EUR 100 million a year.
It clearly includes the expected CapEx that we earmarked in the slides, which is EUR 309 million of maintenance CapEx, and EUR 77 million of sustainability CapEx cumulative in the 2026-2028 period.
Okay, thank you.
Sure.
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Okay. So thank you very much for your interest in Cementir Holding, and we wish you a pleasant rest of your day. Thank you.
Good evening.
Bye-bye.
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