Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the 2026 first nine months results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Maria Bianconi, head of M&A and investor relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, and welcome everybody to Cementir Holding first nine months results 2026. I will take you through 11 slides of the presentation deck, and I am here with Francesco Caltagirone, our chairman and chief executive. Good evening. We are happy to take your question at the end. Moving to page two of the presentation deck, the key takeaways of the results are as follows. The business showed a progressive performance improvement into Q3, helping to close the gap accumulated at the beginning of the year. The nine months where results were affected by exceptionally adverse weather conditions, both in Europe and Türkiye, and a different maintenance schedule in the first quarter.
At constant perimeter, i.e. excluding the effect of the disposal of Kars Çimento in December 2025 and the acquisition of Nymølle in July 2026, Q3 non-GAAP revenue increased by 7.8%, and EBITDA increased by 10.8%, bringing nine-month growth to 2.6% for revenue and narrowing the EBITDA gap from last year only to 1.5%. Volumes showed a progressive recovery. At constant perimeter, nine-month cement volumes increased by 0.6%, supported by Egypt, Belgium, Türkiye, and Malaysia. Ready-mixed concrete declined by 4.6%, while aggregate decreased by 1.7%. These results despite the EUR 48.3 million foreign exchange headwinds on revenue and EUR 6 million on EBITDA, mainly due to the Turkish lira and the US dollar translation into euro.
There was no significant direct impact from geopolitical conflicts, energy cost volatility remaining largely mitigated through risk management and hedging. The guidance for the full year 2026 is confirmed. Moving to the main financial highlights on page three. Revenue reached EUR 1.255 billion, up 2.3% year on year. Non-GAAP revenue reached EUR 1.2489 billion, up 1.3% year on year and 2.6% at constant perimeter. Again, EUR 48.3 million negative FX impact. Cement volumes in the period decreased by 4.2%, mainly reflecting Kars disposal.
At constant perimeter, volumes were 0.6% up, supported by Egypt, Belgium, Türkiye, and Malaysia, while Nordic and Baltic, China, and the U.S. remained weaker. RMC volumes declined by 4.6%, whereas aggregate volumes increased by 6.7%, mainly due to the Nymølle acquisition, and fell by 1.7% at constant perimeter. Looking at EBITDA reached EUR 286.3 million, flat year on year. Non-GAAP EBITDA reached EUR 278.2 million, minus 2% year on year and minus 1.5% at constant perimeter. The underlying performance improved progressively, driven by Egypt, North America, and Belgium, whilst Nordic and Baltic and Türkiye improved in the third quarter.
Excluding the net non-recurring charges and at constant perimeter, EBITDA would have been EUR 275.8 million, minus 2.1% year-on-year. Again, EUR 6.0 million negative FX impact on EBITDA. Pre-tax reached EUR 172 million, minus 0.9% year-on-year. Non-GAAP profit before tax, EUR 176.1 million, minus 4.1%. Finally, net cash, EUR 209.1 million after total dividend payments of EUR 54.6 million, which EUR 7.9 million to minority shareholders. We spent EUR 120 million on Nymølle acquisition and a high industrial investment compared to historical levels, mainly related to the initial preparatory investments for the ACCSION project. Now let's zoom in on the main geographies. On page four, you have the Nordic and Baltic slide. Nordic and Baltic represents 46% of group EBITDA in the nine months. In Denmark, the construction market kept being weak, affected by restricted financing condition and energy cost uncertainty and some project postponements.
Grey domestic cement volumes were slightly down, impacted by exceptionally harsh winter weather and the Femern project delays. Volumes were up 5% in the third quarter, whereas white cement volumes were up 11%. Cement exports were down 14%, mainly due to lower deliveries to Norway, Iceland, Germany, and Belgium. RMC volumes were down 6%, whereas aggregates increased by over 100% reported. Following the Nymølle acquisition and were minus 27% at cost of perimeter. EBITDA was down 6.4% in the nine months, impacted by weaker volumes and high operating costs. Q3 EBITDA was up 17%, partially supported by Nymølle's contribution of EUR 3.5 million. In Norway, ready-mix sales were down 4%, reflecting weak demand, some delays, and lower volumes on major projects and adverse weather conditions. The market remains plagued by overcapacity and competitive pressure. EBITDA increased, driven by higher prices, partially offset by increased variable costs.
The Norwegian krone in the period appreciated by 5.3% versus the euro. In Sweden, there was a more supportive market environment benefiting from public investments. RMC volumes were up 5% and aggregates up 31%. EBITDA increased, driven by higher volumes and prices, only partially offset by higher variable costs. The Swedish krona appreciated by 1.9% versus the euro. Turning to page five, Belgium and France representing around 27% of group EBITDA in the period. The domestic cement volumes were moderately up in Belgium, supported by new customers and a major infrastructure project in Antwerp. Exports to France and the Netherlands were up 14%, driven by gradual recovery in construction and expanded customer base and solid demand from some key customers.
RMC volumes were down marginally 4%, with Belgium minus 8%, due to weak market conditions and competitive pressure, partially offset by France, which was up 6%, supported by improved activity and new contracts. Aggregate volumes were broadly stable amidst weak and competitive markets in both Belgium and France, while volumes increased in the Netherlands. EBITDA was up 4.1%, 0.3% on a recurring basis, supported by higher cement volumes and lower raw material, fuel, and CO2 costs, partially offset by an unfavorable mix, higher maintenance costs, and lower RMC profitability in Belgium. Turning to page six, Turkey representing 12% share of group EBITDA in the period. The environment kept being challenging with high interest rates and high inflation, although gradually easing, and some geopolitical tension and industry market volatility.
Domestic cement volumes were down 8.5% year-on-year due to the Kars disposal, but at constant perimeter, they actually went up 3.8%. After the weather affected Q1 and the gradual completion of major post-earthquake reconstruction projects, demand gradually recovered from Q2, supported by infrastructure, urbanization, and residential projects. There were mixed regional trends. There was strong growth in the Aegean region, a slight increase in Marmara, and a decline in the Eastern Anatolia region, despite progressive recovery from June. Exports were in line with last year. Ready-mix volumes were minus 5%, mainly due to lower post-earthquake reconstruction, while aggregate volumes were down 22% because demand normalized from previous peak levels. Revenues declined by 9% and only 0.9% at constant perimeter. EBITDA was down 23.6% year-on-year. Excluding Kars, it was down 13.2%, impacted by lower volumes and higher costs, partially offset by higher average selling prices.
Remind you, the Kars Cimento divestment was completed on December 1, 2025. The Turkish lira devaluated by 22.5% versus the euro average in the period. Turning to page seven on North America, accounting for 7% of share of group EBITDA. The residential market in the U.S. remained challenging with high market rates around 7% and rising construction costs. White cement volumes declined by 2% year-on-year, showing overall resilience despite the fourth consecutive year of declining cement consumption. There were mixed regional trends. Texas was down 6%, impacted by adverse weather, import competition, and some project delays. California was minus 9% with competitive pressure and weaker pool-related demand. Florida, on the other hand, was up 2%, supported by new customers. New York slightly up, supported by new projects. EBITDA was up 6%, driven by higher average selling prices and improved performance in precast concrete and aggregates.
In the period, the U.S. dollar depreciated by around 3.8% versus the euro. Turning to page eight, Egypt, accounting for 4% of group EBITDA in the period. Here, strong performance despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop with high inflation, currency volatility, and rising energy costs. The domestic white cement volumes were up 28%, supported by resilient construction demand, stronger commercial positioning, and market share gains. Export volumes were up 56%, benefiting from the restart of the second production line and a stronger presence in key export markets, particularly the U.S. Revenues were up 48.8% year-on-year, despite the 5.6% depreciation of the Egyptian pound versus the euro. EBITDA was up over 50%. Driven by higher volumes and a more favorable geographic export mix, more than offsetting higher energy transportation and fixed costs. This brings to the last geography on page nine, Asia Pacific, accounting for 3% of group EBITDA.
In China, market environment remains weak despite a governmental support measure, with subdued domestic demand and a weak real estate market and industry overcapacity. Volumes were down 7% year-on-year, also impacted by adverse weather conditions. Revenues were down 8.6%, reflecting lower volumes and selling prices. As a consequence, EBITDA was down over 40% due to lower volumes and prices and higher fixed costs, only partially offset by variable saving, cost savings. In the period, the renminbi appreciated by around 1.9% versus the euro. In Malaysia, total volumes were up 4%, with domestic volumes, marginal to overall sales, declining by 15% due to order timing with demand and increasing costs from China. Cement exports were up 11%, driven by stronger deliveries to the Philippines, while clinker exports were minus 5%, mainly due to timing difference in shipments to Australia.
Revenues were up 10.5%, supported by higher volumes and a more favorable market mix. On the other hand, EBITDA was down over 26% as higher variable and fixed costs, particularly distribution costs to Australia, more than offset the higher volumes and prices. In the period, the MYR appreciated by 3.6% versus the euro. On page 10, you can visualize a waterfall bridge between the nine months of last year and the nine months of this year in terms of EBITDA. You can see that from the EUR 284 million we reported last year, in Q1, there was a decline of EUR 28.9 million, which was recovered in the following two quarters. If you see the delta Q2 and delta Q3, we recovered over EUR 24.6 million, and we had also a negative EUR 1.6 million perimeter effect, bringing the overall EBITDA in the nine months to EUR 278.2 million.
Moving to the last slide, on page 11, guidance. In light of the results achieved in the first nine months of the year, and despite the uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, we reiterate our full-year guidance of revenue around EUR 1.7 billion and EBITDA in the range between EUR 400 million and EUR 420 million, a net cash position of around EUR 590 million at constant perimeter, and CapEx of around EUR 128 million. Clearly, this guidance, as usual, refers to like-for-like ongoing operation. It is non-GAAP and excludes any extraordinary items. With this, I will end my presentation, and I will leave now the floor to Francesco Caltagirone, who is happy to take your questions. Thank you.
This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question is from Matteo Bonizzoni with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good evening. I have two questions. The first one relates the evolution of the price to cost spread in your three key geographies, Denmark and Belgium, and Türkiye in Q3, let's say, or the evolution which you are seeing. So, it seems that you are quite successful in passing the cost inflation, given that you have recovered EBITDA both in Q2 and Q3. But maybe you can give a little bit of commentary about this pricing to cost evolution. The second question is as regard energy cost. At the beginning of the year, with Q1, you provided a preliminary quantification about EUR 35 million of headwinds compared to the initial guidance in terms of energy cost inflation. What is the current calculation? So, you have probably updated and increased the headwind given the evolution of the commodities.
What is the headwind which you can calculate now compared to when you prepared the budget at the beginning of the year? Last one related to this is 2026 was largely hedged. Maybe you can remind us the percentage of coverage, let's say, on the energy cost. You already said, but maybe a reminder. What about 2027? Clearly hedging expires at some point, so you will hedge probably at worse levels. The question is, what kind of headwind should we imagine in 2027 in case the energy commodity remain at the current level? What is your view about the ability to pass in terms of pricing? Thanks.
Okay. I think, Matteo, I take the first question. In terms of price to spread, what we're seeing in the different regions is that we are maintaining the price-cost spread relatively well. As you know, there has been an industry-wide issue in terms of cost inflation, especially from the energy side. We have managed selectively to pass on this increase in the cost to the clients, as it happened already in 2022 during the energy crisis from the invasion of Ukraine. In a similar fashion, we are managing to keep the spread in a stable territory for the key regions. As far as the hedging, I can tell you that I remind you the percentages. Can anybody mute this phone? Because we hear a bit of an echo. Thank you. Okay.
In terms of hedging, generally, we are hedged around 85% as far as the electricity is concerned every year. Current year, clearly, we have been hedged, and you have seen that, as we have stated as well, we have not been impacted by the energy cost increase because of this. Generally, we use a sort of a staggered hedging scheme, whereby in the following year one, this percentage drops to around 50%-55%, and the following year, that goes below 50%. This to maintain a sort of flexibility between what is hedged and what is the spot price in order to capture and take advantage of potential cost arbitrage. You obviously will not see a meaningful impact this year. As you correctly say, next year, we have around half of the energy bill that has to be repriced at some point during the year.
Depending on where the energy cost will be at that point, we will have to clearly renegotiate the prices at that point. But you have to think about around 50%-45% of the energy yearly cost for next year going down to around 30%-35% for the following year. As far as thermal energy is concerned, as you know, we are able to hedge coal, but it is impossible to hedge petcoke for a number of reasons, mainly the fact that petcoke is in the hands of a limited number of producers, mainly in the Gulf Coast, or in Malaysia, there is a monopolist, which is Petronas. You cannot really hedge petcoke. We use generally petcoke only for the white cement and not for all the plants, because we switch, for example, in the U.S., 100% natural gas.
As far as coal, we do hedge. Some of the thermal energy is hedged. Clearly, the proportion is lower than the electricity. Depending on where the spot price will be next year, clearly, we will implement our purchases for the year according to our hedging policy. This is the picture. As far as the EUR 38 million that our Chairman last year in the first quarter mentioned as a potential headwind, as an additional cost of energy bill, this was predicated on the assumption that the oil price would remain above the $100 per barrel.
Clearly, this has been the case in the last couple of months, but not throughout the year. Clearly, between price increases and cost management and hedging, we have been able to actually largely mitigate this impact. I would say that for the rest of the year, these EUR 38 million are almost gone. There is no impact. I do not know if Francesco has any point on this.
No, I just want to add that we have taken into consideration that both in Aalborg and in Belgium, we use between 75% and 80% of alternative fuel. In Denmark, we do not use any more petcoke, and we have natural gas, and we are going to implement natural gas next year in Belgium. The impact of the coal price is just mainly on our, let me say, Cementir production in Türkiye and Egypt, because also U.S.A., we are going to gas, and gas even this year, during the year, especially in the United States, has been at quite a lower price. Looking at the next year, let us say that as everybody are experiencing in the last two days, the market is changing fastly. As Marco said, we are at this time, this point, mostly nearly between 50%.
Let us see how the market will develop in the next weeks, because it seems that in the last, let me say, three days, the oil came down from 108 to around 90. We are not, let me say, hurrying to cover. Let me say that the full 2027, but let us say that there might be opportunities that the price can be lower, even significantly lower.
Thank you.
Your question. Thank you, Matteo Bonizzoni.
The next question is from Alessandro Tortora for Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks. I have three questions, okay, if I may. The first one, sorry, is just a clarification on the full-year guidance. I see now you commented in the presentation the progressive EBITDA gap versus last year. I think now you basically refer to the low end of the EBITDA guidance range. So the question is, do you still consider achievable the full spectrum, I would say, considering the energy cost uncertainty we just discussed? That's the first question. Thanks.
We say that we are aiming, considering 30 million of gap in the first quarter, close to 30 million, that now we are considering to reach the guidance. This doesn't mean that we might reach the top of the guidance. I think it's difficult because in, let's say, two weeks, three weeks, the market for usually, I mean, where we are, let me say, based, will start, let me say, to slow down significantly because the weather condition will become harsher. I don't think, frankly speaking, in two or three weeks now, we can recover again.
Anyway, we have also to understand that beside the energy price that I think we have hedged quite well during this year, also the long-term interest rates that in the last couple of years increased nearly 200, 250 basis points is something that usually, let me say, is a headwind in this sector. Now also in the long-term rates, there might be space to come down after the U.S. election and especially if the energy price will stabilize at, let me say, significant lower price. But let's say for sure, the headwinds has been, let me say, quite strong. We have managed quite well. We don't see, let me say, in any market. Even at the beginning of the year, probably you remember that we said we expected that the Nordic and Baltic market should have, let me say, performed better than the French Belgium.
Now what we are seeing, and you are seeing in the number, that France, Belgium perform better and Scandinavian market performance slightly below. Even Türkiye without the Kars, let me say, has performed a little bit better than our expectation. China is the only, let me say, blind spot. We are aware that in the last couple of years, the Chinese market is challenging, especially in the construction sector. But let's say, I think that in the next three to six months, due to what is happening, has happened, let me say, in the last week, might change, let me say, the perception.
It's a bit difficult even for us, even if in this moment we are starting to build the budget, the rolling budget for the next three years, but especially for the next year, because let's say it's not easy to understand the key assumption even on the exchange rate. So far we have seen a very strong dollar that, let me say, might not be, let me say, the case for next year. And you know energy is linked to the dollar. I don't want to bet or to guess, I just expect and we have, as you know, another eight to 10 weeks to complete the budget for next year, also understanding better which are, let me say, the main driver that we might, let me say, have next year.
Okay. Okay, thanks. The second question, sorry, is on the M&A strategy because clearly in the past month we had, and we read also press regarding your potential involvement in Brazil, and now we also had the official press release mentioning that the other, let's say, competitor, potential bidder, for the Brazilian asset was in a kind of shortlisted or in exclusive, let me say, negotiation. The question is, can you give us also an update on your M&A strategy of capital allocation? Because clearly, I guess the potential investment in Brazil would have been an important step for you. Just understand your strategy in that region, because now you reiterated the interest in potentially investing in that area. Thanks.
For sure, if you look at how we are spread around the world, South America is the only place where we are not, let me say, present today. The only two meaningful places where, let me say, today, from our point of view, you can invest is Brazil and Chile. Chile is a market, let me say, difficult to supply because it's 6,000 km long and exposed to, let me say, possible import from China. Brazil is different, but let's say, unfortunately, let me say, we face a Chinese company that sometimes, as you know, has, let me say, different target than, let me say, profitability.
Especially also because we have a sort of flip from the first phase of election into the second, where in the first we saw Bolsonaro, that probably was mainly against the Chinese investment, and then Lula came out at the end as the winner. Our strategy, we built, let me say, an offer together with Votorantim, that is the main player there with 35% of market share. It was, let me say, of a meaningful size because the full company sales was around 15 million tons, even if in Brazil you sell at $60, so everything is tailored to that, let me say, size.
For sure, if there are, let me say, possibility to buy a full company, because with Votorantim, the fit was good because, let me say, we could have, let me say, bought a perimeter, a partial perimeter, with, let me say, the possibility to have a full headquarter of the company. Because to buy a single asset in every country, let me say, it is difficult, let me say, because we are already spread in 18 countries. This time, let me say, six months ago, materialized this opportunity from scratch because CSN is in, let me say, big financial trouble, and they were forced to sell. Unfortunately, we were the underbidder, but with no regrets because at the end, the Chinese increased the price so much that, let's say, we weren't, let me say, prepared and able to close the gap and so on.
So for the future, it is depending, let us say. Today, I can say that we are not, let me say, analyzing anything specific. But, let us say, if something might arise and then have, let me say, the financial and profitability criteria that match with our view, let me say, we will, let me say, try to follow the opportunity.
Okay. Thanks for this. And then last question. Sorry, it is a small one, but it relates to the contribution of the unit holding and services. We usually do not comment it, but considering that in the, let us say, first nine months, it basically reported a EUR 7 million EBITDA. Can you help us, let us say, also to model a little bit the performance of this division? Because I read in the press release some cost action you made at holding level, but also the contribution of the trading company. So to understand, now, how can I say, the sustainability of this EBITDA in the coming years. Thanks.
Mainly, let me say, the services are, let me say, is our trading company. So we work on a, let me say, opportunistic way, just, let me say, to trade energy and cement and clinker. So this year is better than last year because some contracts materialize or hedging materialize, and this is the main reason, let us say. I do not know, Marco, if you want to add something more, but.
No, again, as Francesco said, it is mainly the contribution of the trading company. So it is rather difficult to predict the contribution because it is largely opportunistic in the way it works. But that said, you should probably pencil in a modest contribution going forward.
Okay. Sorry, it was just a curiosity. Okay. Thanks. Thanks a lot.
Sure.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Egor Sonin with AlphaValue. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everyone. Thank you for picking up my question. I want to specify a moment on Denmark. Sorry if I missed it earlier. Based on my calculations, Nymølle, like this aggregate business which you acquired in July, contributed EUR 3.5 million out of the EUR 7.8 million increase in Q3 EBITDA. That implies that existing business grew EBITDA by about 9% in the construction market. My question is, how much of that growth came from the recovery in cement volumes, and what could sustain it into 2027? Thanks.
Yes. No, you're right. Thank you, Egor, for the question. Yes, the contribution of Nymølle was around EUR 3.5 million for the period, and then we can then elaborate on that later on because it was a very strategic and centered acquisition in the aggregate business in Denmark. As you say, the remaining business performance was, I would say, largely in Denmark, the performance of grey cement continues to be a bit muted. You know that in Q1, it's been extremely poor weather. We could not even cast or drag the material from the fjord. But from the second quarter onwards, delivery, so in terms of volumes, to answer your question, sequentially improved and started to move in positive territory. In the third quarter, the volume contribution in Denmark was around +5%. This is grey cement. In white cement, they grew by 11%.
So, there was clearly an element of operating leverage there. And as far as pricing in Denmark, again, we had a modest recovery and improvements in line with inflation, so nothing spectacular. I would say that the large part of the improvement was due to operating leverage and to a lesser extent from price increases recovering mainly the cost inflation to maintain the price cost spread stable.
Okay. Many thanks.
Sure.
Your next question is from Emanuele Gallazzi with Equita. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everybody. Just one question from my side, and it is specifically on the Turkish market. Basically, we have seen an acceleration in both revenues and EBITDA in the third quarter after, I would say, a soft first half. You were mentioning infrastructure spending and residential in the third quarter, while export was rather flat. Can you discuss a little bit more on the trend seen in the third quarter, and what do you expect for the fourth quarter?
But we continue to see, let me say, a slightly positive development in Türkiye, due, as we said also last year, from the Syrian market that is, let me say, starting to absorb some cement coming from Türkiye. Also because next year should be an election year, and usually in this country, they start to push on construction spending 12, 18 months before. So, even if the macroeconomic situation is challenging, and the inflation is starting to slow down, next year, we might, let me say, expect to exit, let me say, the IAS 29 if the situation continue as it is today.
So if next year we will have, let me say, an inflation rate below 24%, the math say that during next year, or the last quarter of next year, and this for sure will simplify and also help the balance sheet and the understanding and also building. But the market, as I said, and especially if the energy price and the loss of the Trump administration will start to evaluate a bit and the energy price will go down, this will be a tailwind for Türkiye. So, our expectation is that for this year, as I said, in two or three weeks, the market almost everywhere will start, let me say, to slow down significantly. But in next year, we are still positive, let me say, about the market consumption. And on the cost side, there might be some, say, some tailwind.
And if I may follow up still on the Turkish market, I was just wondering if you have seen any change in the competitive environment due to, I don't know, tariff in the U.S. or the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in Europe. Just to understand if something is changing in the internal Turkish market.
No, frankly speaking, this is something that the ETS system should be, let me say, next year start to be implemented, and the first two years is just for statistical, let me say, build a statistical base. But then they should start also to implement. Otherwise, let me say, it will be quite difficult for them to export cement, but also steel, aluminum, and other things. As we saw in Europe, the implementation of the ETS system crystallized the market, usually.
Decide the price, if it is EUR 15 or EUR 90. Because, let's say, you have an extra tax, and then, let's say, it's less easy to build margin when you build a new plant from scratch. And this has been, let me say, the issue from time to time in Türkiye in the last 20 years. So, extra capacity that from time to time will form and arrive into the market. So, we expect also that this slight, let me say, improvement in the market at a certain point, probably 2028, 2029, should stabilize, especially from the supply side.
Very clear. Thank you.
Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Bruno Permutti with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question, and good evening, everyone. I have a question related to France. I saw that in the last two, three quarters, you had positive data from that market in terms of volumes. So, I was wondering if this is a medium-term trend that you see to continue next year, that will also be an election year for France. What is your expectation in general for the Belgium and France area that has an important weight on your total EBITDA?
My second question is more related to the short term. So, if you can elaborate a little bit on what you are seeing in the last few weeks in terms of volumes. So, you had a mixed picture in terms of volume in the third quarter. I was wondering, how do you expect, or what are the signals that you see in the market right now? What are you seeing in terms of volumes for the last quarter of the year?
Regarding Belgium, France, let's say, we have started to see a bit of consolidation in the market, and we have also to think about this kind of framework. In Europe, we are, compared to 2022, that probably has been, in terms of consumption, the peak of the market, we are today, let me say, most of the geography where we are active, but also most of Europe, 10%-15% below in terms of consumption. We are reaching a sort of Because, let me say, the per capita consumption, let's say, are at a very low level. As I said also a few times, if we just recover the quantity that we have lost, let me say, in the last three years due to the macro condition, the EBITDA can, let me say, jump, let me say, significantly just for the volume.
In France, let's say, what we are seeing is not just that the market or the economy is bouncing back. It's just, let me say, that we are at a sort of physiological level that it's difficult to go lower. Then you know that France is one of, let me say, the difficult situations that we have in Europe, because they will have the election next year, and the situation is, so you see the Gilets jaunes and other kind of, let me say, street clash, I mean. Yes. It's difficult today to say next year in France or in Belgium, we might see a recovery. Either like what we have seen today in the United States.
Probably, what is happening in terms of the magnitude of the loss of the Trump administration should push to a scenario that probably last week wasn't, let me say, part of the possible scenarios. We might, let me say, but this has to be confirmed, that if the rates, because energy will go down sharply and dollar will start to devaluate a bit, probably in the first half, I'm talking about the whole economy, especially in Europe, we will not see much, let me say recovery. But then this might change significantly the framework. The expectation probably for the second half of the year and the next couple of years, now, if these things materialize, are, let me say, brighter than before.
I don't want to guess now what will happen, let me say, in the first six months, but even in the year, because look at this year. In the first quarter, we have a so ugly quarter that then it would have been, even from your point of view, very difficult to, let me say, reach the guidance. Now, we are at six weeks from the end of the year, and let's say, it's almost done. It's very difficult to make, let me say. I want, as I say, to wait these eight, 10 weeks that we will need to build our budget, also to understand how the market reacts and also how Trump reacts, because Trump is a difficult, let me say, person to forecast. Let's see if the war, especially against Iran, will smooth a bit.
Ukraine and Russia, let's say, I don't know, but this is not particularly, I don't think, meaningful for the market. But for the rates and for the energy price, what, let me say, Trump administration will decide will be, let me say, I think, the major key driver. And I think that from the moment that they lose the election because of the inflation and the Iran war, probably they have to make a 180 degrees turn now. But this is just my expectation, it's not my forecast.
Okay, thank you.
Sorry, the volume in the last quarter, let me say, Scandinavia and part of Türkiye, they are also hit by meteo adverse conditions if they materialize. As I say, we are still seeing in some region some recovery, as we saw in France, Belgium, U.S. for white cement, because it seems that for grey cement, for other players, the market is starting to slow down. Egypt is healthy, and the only today difficult situation is mainly China, and we have a bit, let me say, delay in Nordic country, especially Norway and Denmark. But likely, I mean, this is not I think if the long-term rates will start to, let me say, just to change the direction, this, let me say, should bring some, let me say, boost, probably in the second half of the year for the consumption.
Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Matteo Bonizzoni with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. A quick follow-up on the decarbonization Aalborg project. Question is, starting from the reform, which was not a major reform, was a minor reform of the EU ETS scheme last summer, are you seeing any kind of impact on the pricing behavior in the industry or capital decisions? Currently, it doesn't seem that there is a rush to implement decarbonization initiatives. Everybody more or less is on standby, but maybe you have more view on a broader level on what is happening post the summer decision. As regards your Aalborg initiative, where are we? Also, basically, what is missing to really start to execute the project? Can you provide an update? Thanks.
Starting from your second question, we have, let me say, the go, no-go by the first half of 2027. We are just waiting the last, let me say, details from earthquake inspection and also how, let me say, the site to, let me say, to store the CO2 is sealed. We are just waiting that the oil company that is following this will give us, let me say, the final report. So far, let me say, the result that we have received in the last month are, let me say-
Encouraging
encouraging. We do not expect that, as it is for now, that we might face a delay. In terms of CO2, you are seeing price, you are seeing today that the price is around EUR 90. This means, as also I told you before, that they are just, let me say, tweaking a small thing, especially from 2032, 2035 to 2040. Not in the short period that is what might affect, let me say, the profitability. But also now with this EUR 2.2 billion that we received as a grant for OPEX from the Danish administration, I think that we are fully hedged from, let me say, spike and trough in terms of CO2 price. For the industry, what we are, let me say, feeling is that, let me say, cement, steel, I mean, this heavy industry should go forward because also they face less competition, especially from import.
Car, the electrification of the network, the car, the Chinese import is a different story, and probably they should, let me say, move a bit the roadmap. But it seems that the European Commission want to focus on five or six industries, mainly, as I said, it is cement, aluminum, glass, and steel, because there are very few actors and very quite, let me say, easy also to follow the implementation of the investment than to broadly, let me say, as they wanted to do from scratch, to broadly impose this kind of scheme to all the industries, small and big. The feeling today is that there are no change or meaningful change in terms of direction, in terms of investment attitude from the EU for decarbonization.
And now we also wait that, especially in the U.S.A., there might be a shift of paradigm because the Democratic Party are for sure favor of this, let me say, kind of investment. And it has been, as you know, mainly the Trump administration in the United States and with its attitude to slow down this kind of investment. But if on artificial intelligence they start to slow down part of this silly rush to investment, so less energy will be requested probably in the next five to 10 years, and they shift this kind of part of this investment to the industry, I think that it might be even more positive than what we expected a few months ago.
Thank you.
Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. If there are no further questions, we would like to thank you for your interest in Cementir, and we wish you a pleasant rest of your evening and day. Thank you. Good evening. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephone.