Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the CAREL 2022 full year results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they might signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Francesco Nalini, CEO of CAREL Industries. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our call for the presentation of the 2022 full year results. I start immediately from page two, where we summarize the main achievements in terms of strategy execution. On the operating standpoint, we completed our second production facility in Croatia with additional 5,200 sq m.
for increasing the group resiliency and supporting our growth in Europe. We also completed the construction of two new high efficiency buildings in our headquarter campus in Padua, with new offices, a new conference and training center, a technology showroom, and most of all, a new laboratory for thermodynamic research, which is twice as large as the existing one.
We continued the execution of our process digitization roadmap, and the most important result here, was the implementation of the first wave of our very extensive product lifecycle management system, which already led to the dramatic reduction of time to market lead times for the customization of a new range of controllers.
As you know, we aim for sustainable success, meaning that increasingly our strategy and execution are integrated with our ESG vision. To confirm our commitment this year, we joined the UN Global Compact, and we also improved all our sustainability ratings, namely MSCI, Sustainalytics, and CDP. The group also continued deploying its strategy of growth in technology, market share, and services through acquisitions. We completed four bolt-on transactions in 2022, all fully in line with our strategic guidelines.
The acquisition of 70% of the share capital of Sauber in services, the acquisition of a further 30% stake, 30 control of Arion, designing and manufacturing sensors, the full takeover of Klingenburg, allowing CAREL to become the European leader in heat recovery systems for ventilation, and finally, the full takeover of Senva, specialized in a variety of sensor technologies.
As we speak, our pipeline remains definitely pretty active. Moving to page three, we have the main highlights in terms of 2022 results. For the second consecutive year, the group reported a top-line growth rate close to 30%, maintaining a profitability higher than 20% and an NFP on EBITDA ratio lower than one. This is not a rebound from COVID, since in 2020, we also had an organic increase in the top line, as you know.
As just mentioned, we also had very strong results in terms of M&A and ESG standing. In 2022, revenues grew by 29.6% over 2021. Like-for-like growth was 20.8% on the high end of our expectation. If we take out also the positive effect of the exchange rate, organic growth was 17.7%. This excellent result comes from the strong contribution of both markets and all regions, and we're particularly proud when we consider that we faced an extremely challenging situation in terms of supply chain constraints that were very severe during the entire year. For this reason, we couldn't express the full growth potential coming from very positive trends, mostly in heat pumps, indoor air quality, data centers, and refrigeration.
EBITDA margin in 2022 was 20.5% of sales, slightly higher than 2021, when it was 20.3%. If we don't consider approximately EUR 3 million of non-recurring costs related to M&As, adjusted profitability was 21.1%. Cost inflation, in fact, was offset by operating leverage and price increases.
Our balance sheet is very solid. We had a strong cash generation, keeping NFP below EUR 100 million and below our EBITDA. Actually, if we exclude the purely accounting IFRS 16 effect, NFP would be approximately EUR 63 million or 0.5x EBITDA. Needless to say, this translates in firepower for our M&A pipeline. Moving to page four, we can see some additional figures.
Revenues were EUR 544.9 million, up 29.6% from the EUR 420.4 million of 2021, with a generalized growth across markets and regions. Organic growth rate in Q4, as expected, had a slight deceleration due to seasonal factors and also to specific contingent issues of availability of some components that materialized in Q4 and affected mainly the refrigeration market.
As we can see in the top right chart, we have the positive contribution of M&A for EUR 37.1 million and foreign exchange for EUR 12.9 million. Fixed foreign exchange was 26.5%, and with the same perimeter was 20.8%. EBITDA was EUR 111.7 million, up 31% from the EUR 85.3 million of 2021. Operating leverage and price increases offset cost inflation.
Profitability in Q4 was approximately 18%, in line with the same period of 2021. If we adjust for approximately EUR 3 million of non-recurring costs related to M&A, adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.1%, up from the 21% of the previous year. Net profit at EUR 62.1 million was up 26.6% from the EUR 49.1 million of 2021, thanks to the operating result. As we will see, tax rate at 22.3% was higher than 2021, when it was 19.6%, due to a different country mix and to fiscal regulation changes in some countries.
CapEx were EUR 26.8 million, in line with expectations and up 43.3% from the EUR 18.7 million of 2021, mainly due to the new plant in Croatia and the new facilities in the headquarter campus. We propose the distribution of EUR 0.18 per share, 20% higher than 2021 and corresponding to a payout of approximately 30%.
On page five, we have the top line breakdown by region and market. To the left, there's the region breakdown, where we can see that all regions had an outstanding growth in 2022. EMEA grew by 26.8% net of foreign exchange, 18% like-for-like, with a strong performance in most applications.
Asia Pacific grew by 17%, with robust growth in Southeast Asia, Korea, India, and Japan compensating a softer year in China, that had, in any case, high single-digit growth in local currency. This softer growth was mainly due to the COVID lockdowns, of course. South Asia Pacific, in particular, grew by more than 30%.
After the end of the zero COVID policy, there is, in China, the potential for a significant rebound of the economy. North America was the fastest growing region in 2022. Sales grew by 38.8% net of the foreign exchange, in any case, more than 20% organic. We had excellent results, especially in HVAC and mainly in data centers and indoor air quality. We expect the general sensitivity towards sustainability in the U.S. to accelerate, driven also by regulation.
The Inflation Reduction Act can also be a significant tailwind, thanks to its drive for renewables and electrification, for example, for what concerns heat pumps. In Latin America, revenues grew by 22.8% net of the foreign exchange. A very good performance, especially outside Brazil, even if, with a deceleration in Q4 due to logistic issues related to the shortage.
To the right, we can see the breakdown by market. HVAC grew by 34.4% net of the foreign exchange, more than 20% organically. Most HVAC applications had strong growth, but especially heat pumps, indoor air quality, ventilation, and data centers. Refrigeration grew by 13.2% net of the foreign exchange, approximately 10% organically.
As mentioned, we had a specific contingent issue of availability of some components in Q4 that affected mainly refrigeration, and that led to a deceleration compared to the nine months. As we'll discuss in a few minutes, this situation continued in the first weeks of 2023, but is now being fast resolved. I now leave it to Nicola for commenting the items below the EBITDA on page six.
Thank you, Francesco. The slide number six details the group results from the EBITDA to the net profit. Fiscal year 2022 was impacted by higher D&A costs related to M&A activities for EUR 1.5 million and the relevant investment in CapEx in the present and last years. The financial charges were higher compared to last year due to the interest rate evolution and the time effect of the put and call option of CFM.
The Forex impact in 2022 was better than last year for more than EUR 500,000. Due to the good performance of the Turkish company, CFM, it was deemed prudent to review the fair value of the put and call option on the residual 49% of shares, with a negative impact of around EUR 2.2 million.
In 2022, the result of the company consolidated with the equity method was a gain of around EUR 2.3 million, compared to a profit of EUR 500,000 over the same period of 2021, mainly influenced by a fair value evaluation of Arion. The tax rate of the period was around 22.3%, higher than last year, mainly due to the new law introduced in Croatia, which impacted the group for around EUR 600,000, and the application of the so-called "IRAP aliquota" in Carel S.p.A., and the different country mix. The group net profit in 2022 was equal to EUR 62.1 million, compared to EUR 49 million over the same period of 2021. Slide number seven shows the net financial position evolution of 2022.
The flow from operation was strong and equal to EUR 89.2 million. The increase in net working capital was mainly driven by a stronger growth of values and to a planned increase in inventory to better cope with the raw material shortage. It should be noted that the DSO is better than the same period of last year. During the period, the group paid dividends for EUR 18.2 million.
The net financial position was impacted by M&A activities for around EUR 57.9 million. At the end of December 2022, the net financial position of the group was equal to EUR 95.8 million. Taking out the effect of IFRS 16, the net financial position with banks amount to EUR 63.1 million, a level significantly below the EBITDA. I leave Francesco to go on with the presentation.
Thank you, Nicola. I'm on page eight now. As mentioned before, we're committed to fully integrating our business strategy and execution with our ESG vision and targets. We believe that they are synergic, and the sustainability drives success and vice versa. This commitment is also reflected in our ESG ratings, and in this last period, we improved all our existing scores, plus we received a new one.
In October, we've been upgraded by MSCI to AA in their ESG rating. This is part of a continuous improvement journey that brought us from B in 2019 to AA now. CAREL is now in the ESG leaders category, so according to MSCI, is a company leading its industry in managing the most significant ESG risks and opportunities. We took part in 2022 for the first time in the EcoVadis rating process.
This is a very important rating for the number of companies involved, approximately 100,000 worldwide, because it's the ESG rating of reference for industrial supply chains. We received a silver medal, ranking us in the top 23% in our industry. In December, CDP upgraded our rating to B- from C. CDP, formerly Carbon Disclosure Project, is the most important rating provider on climate change issues.
We now move to the management category from the awareness one. Finally, in January 2023, Sustainalytics improved CAREL ESG risk to 17 from 24.8, positioning the company in the low ESG risk category, specifically in the lowest 2% ESG risk in the industry. I'm now moving to page nine for the closing remarks.
We're very proud to highlight that at EUR 545 million, we closed 2022 with substantially double the turnover we had in 2018, the year of the IPO, despite of the huge disruptions of the last three years. Q4 2022 was the eighth consecutive quarter reporting a double-digit organic growth. This is even more remarkable since we experienced in this last quarter temporary but relevant issues in terms of delivery of some specific electronic components, particularly impacting refrigeration.
We continued in 2022 with the consistent execution of our strategy in terms of organic growth, M&A, digitalization, and sustainability. There are still relevant challenges and uncertainties, of course. On the macro level, geopolitical tensions, inflation, restrictive monetary policies could definitely hinder global growth in the coming quarters.
In the very short term, though, the biggest challenge is the electronic material shortage, which unfortunately for industrial electronics, is still present. As mentioned, in the last quarter of 2022, we had some relevant availability issues for specific components. This continued also in the first weeks of 2023. The situation has been very contingent and is already improving fast as we speak. We expect a gradual but substantial improvement in the supply chain for the rest of the year.
Fortunately, there are also many secular opportunities. One example is the transition to low global warming potential refrigerants, which is fast gaining traction outside Europe, driven by the ratification of the Kigali Amendment by China and India, and its authorization by the U.S. Senate. Another example is the booming heat pump market, in particular in Europe, due to the REPowerEU regulation.
On the demand side, we still see a solid outlook. However, the refrigeration market could have a temporary and contingent short-term deceleration, meaning that it could grow less than the two previous years. Growth in HVAC, on the other hand, should remain sustained. To conclude, taking into consideration that the aforementioned situation in the electronic material shortage will not permit in the very short term to fully satisfy the very positive demand in a number of applications, the company expects to report a high single-digit like-for-like revenue growth in the first quarter of 2023. The company is, in any case, optimistic on the gradual loosening of the electronic material shortage in the following quarters. Thank you very much for your attention. We're now more than happy to answer to all of your questions.
This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove your question, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. We will pause for a moment while participants are joining the queue. The next question is from Alessandro Tortora from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good afternoon, Francesco. I have, let's say four question, okay, if I may. The first one is related to the, to the outlook, the short term, the first quarter outlook, okay, you mentioned before. Is it fair to assume that, considering, let's say, the shortage, also in terms of profitability, we should think about, let's say, an evolution of the EBITDA margin that probably could be a bit affected, okay, in the first quarter, and then, let's say, gradually recover in the second quarter. This is the first question just to understand also the impact on the, how can I say, the lower volumes on the refrigeration side due to the shortage. I don't know if you want to go one by one, Francesco?
As you prefer, Alessandro, I can take this one immediately.
Yes. Thanks.
Yeah, of course. As you know very well, our profitability is influenced by growth because there is operating leverage.
Mm-hmm.
Now, in this first quarter, yes, there is the effect of the shortage. We are, in any case, talking about the high single-digit organic growth. Let's say, needless to say, if growth was higher, then also profitability would be higher. We do expect, let's say, in this respect, profitability to improve during the year. In the following quarters, that's for sure.
Okay. Okay. This was related also, let's say, to the 21% adjusted EBITDA margin you reported in the last two years. What are the reason why we cannot see this level as sustainable going forward, that is around, let's say, 21% instead of the original guidance you gave during the PR, which was arranged between 19% and 20%? Thanks.
Okay. Yes, we did have, let's say, in the last two years, a profitability above our mid-cycle expectation. That, as you know, is 19%-20%. Also, because growth was very high, we had an organic growth of, let's say, approximately 20% per year in the last two years. That, let's say, explains a good part of this above then above then expected profitability.
Mm-hmm.
Having said that, I mean, we remain with our, for the time being, we remain with our expectations of a profitability between 19% and 20%, again, related to organic growth in the high single-digit range. Again, that the two figures are very related. On top of that, if profitability is above expectation, our idea is, in any case, to prioritize growth and invest more. In any case, we don't strive for profitability above 20%. We strive for accelerated growth. Should profitability consistently remain above 20%, we would just invest more. In the last two years, we have been investing significantly, as you have seen.
Okay. Okay. The second question was on the U.S. market. As you mentioned before, that is a very promising market for you. Considering the Senva acquisition you made some months ago, do you see the concrete possibility that you can expand the production of some other products locally in the U.S. market, let's say in the how can I say, one, two years from now? Thanks.
Yes. Definitely yes, Alessandro. We are definitely planning to expand our production footprint in the U.S..
Mm-hmm.
In terms of products, we are already evaluating, and that probably could be pretty short-term, to bring in the U.S. the manufacturing of products related to indoor quality and ventilation, like the Enginia and Klingenburg products, for example.
Mm-hmm.
Those we are already evaluating. We will also, probably next year, start the execution of a footprint expansion in the U.S. That could be done, the exact location has yet to be determined, but of course, Senva could be a base for that because we're very happy about the footprint we found in Senva in terms of R&D and manufacturing capability.
Okay. Thanks. Very short-term, short question on the modeling. Nicola, if you can help me to understand, you mentioned before tax rate are higher due to mix, due to change in regulation in Croatia. What's a sustainable level of tax rate for you, going forward? Some indication on the CapEx for the current year and on net working capital on sales, considering the strong reduction in net working capital we saw in the last quarter. Thanks.
Yes, Alessandro. If we talk about the tax rate, I expect that in the future will be pretty stable with the level at the end of 2022, and so around the 22%.
With reference to the CapEx, we expect it to be around 5% of the net sales. It is, you know, a level that we demand that in the mid and the long term it will be-
Mm-hmm.
Available for us, and even in 2023. With reference to the net working capital, you know, at the year-end that we expect for the next year, for 2023, I mean, a level of around 17%. During the year, you know, there are some seasonal effect that I expect in line with what happened by quarter in 2022.
Okay. Basically, it should increase compared to this year, Nicola?
Something, yes, it is possible.
Okay, okay. Thanks. Thanks.
The next question is from Gianluca Pediconi from MOMentum. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, gentlemen. First off, congratulations on both the financial achievement, but above all, the sustainable one as well. I have a couple of question. The first one is related also to what Alessandro just asked you, and I wanna look at the breakdown of Carel by region in terms of sales, but I'm much more interested in term of production footprint, let's say, in thre to five years. Where do you see, Francesco, the ideal breakdown?
I understand that now Europe is probably one of the fastest-growing market, so I'm not looking at the revenues, but I'm much more interested in, let's say, midterm targeting of capacity breakdown by region. That is the first question. The second one is, when I look at your product portfolio, is there anything... I don't want to name it, but is there anything that you would like to add in order to better serve your customers, or you are happy with the current value proposition of CAREL? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thanks, Gianluca, for the question. In terms of capacity expansion, we are still going to invest in Europe, definitely. In addition to the new facility in Croatia of last year, we are going probably towards the end of this year to start executing additional capacity somewhere in Europe, because we do expect a significant growth in Europe to continue.
Likewise, in Europe, we are going to, let's say, exploit synergies in manufacturing among the different companies we now have working in mechanics for ventilation, namely Enginia, Recuperator and Klingenburg. On top of that, we will also expand capacity in Europe, followed by probably, as I was mentioning before to Alessandro, followed probably in 2024 by a capacity expansion also in the United States.
Probably even before that, we will add some, we'll deploy some specific lines for, again, some products for ventilation, like Enginia, for example. Because that is growing pretty well in the U.S. Now, with these investments we made in ventilation, we are in a good position to grow in the HVAC commercial segment in the U.S., and that's what we are definitely achieving in this moment. As far as Asia is concerned, as of now, our capacity is sufficient. You know that in 2019, we tripled our capacity in China. For the time being, it's sufficient.
Of course, we will monitor the situation to see if the necessity exists to add capacity somewhere else in Asia. Concerning products, that's, of course, we continuously invest for innovation, and innovation comes also from expanding our system. It's difficult to say at this stage what we miss because that depends on the innovation path that we believe is the most interesting. For example, a few years ago, we thought that ventilation could start taking over in Europe, and that was also the moment for expanding our position in ventilation for the U.S., and we started doing acquisitions there.
We identified sensors as a very important technology, and we started making acquisitions in sensors. Now there are still some components left in ventilation, definitely. For example, I don't know, there are filtration systems, just to name one, some kinds of bugs. Another direction, very important one is, of course, in software and digital services. That's definitely something that would be very relevant for us to explore.
Francesco, if I may, you are considering, as you mentioned, both innovation and acquisition. You are considering for these new, say, potential new components, to develop them internally or to buy them, say, a company in the market?
Yeah.
Sorry?
Yeah. Sorry, Gianluca. Yes. In general, both. Both. We would consider both
You would be opportunistic?
Opportunistic
No, I mean, the strategy is to try and develop your, these components that you believe you may add to your offer internally, or you are scouting for the best company in the market to see if you can buy them.
Okay. It depends on the kind of technology. I can give the example of, for example, software and digital services. Our idea is to follow both directions. We are definitely investing organically, but we're also actively scouting for M&A. We're doing the two things simultaneously. For other technologies, it would depend. If it's a completely new technology for us, then probably M&A would be an interesting way to enter the technology like we did in the last few years.
Thank you very much. Very clear.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from Niccolo Storer from Kepler. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions, and good afternoon, everybody. The first one refers to heat pumps. I was wondering if growth you have seen in 2022 was aligned to the 38% growth of the market, or if you had the impression it was higher or lower. In the press release you speak about an accelerating trend into 2022-2023. You expect this 38% growth to be even higher in the current year. Always related to heat pumps, you mentioned before the opportunity from the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S..
Here the question is, if you have already started seeing something in this very first part of the year, and if you are able, in a way, to quantify the opportunity, at least, in the short term. Second question is related to the shortage you mentioned, which caused a slowdown in refrigeration growth. Should we think that refrigeration is the only activity impacted by shortage or just it is the more impacted and we have shortage also elsewhere, but it's not that easily detectable?
Also related to shortage, I was wondering if you are able to quantify, in a way, the quantity of pent-up demand which could be there and freed up once all the components become available. Third and last question is related to pricing and cost evolution. Should we expect further price increases into 2023? Also on the cost side, what are you seeing in terms of inflationary pressures? Are you seeing something coming back? You see continuation of same trend of 2022? Just a qualitative view on that. Thank you.
Okay. Start again. In heat pumps in 2022, our growth was more or less in line with the general market growth, approximately what you mentioned, the general market in EU, 38%. In any case, our growth would have been higher in 2022 in heat pumps if it were not for the shortage, because we have been gaining market share. We would have been growing more than the market. However, unfortunately the shortage limited our growth, was a bottleneck, so we couldn't grow more than that, and more or less was in line with the market. Concerning 2023, the shortage is being resolved very fast as we speak.
We are very confident that the situation will improve significantly for the rest of the year. The capacity is there because we have been investing, so we're confident that growth for heat pumps will definitely be higher in 2023. Concerning the U.S., it's very promising for the mid-term. It's still too early to see any material effects.
Of course, we are exploring very actively the market, but it's still too early to see anything meaningful moving. But it's definitely a big opportunity. Concerning the shortage, it was impacting also HVAC. It was impacting these last few weeks, it was impacting both refrigeration and HVAC. It was much more visible in refrigeration for a number of technical issues.
For example, one is that we had an issue with the components related to the connectivity hub of a supermarket, which is basically the brain that controls the entire supermarket and is connected to the rest of the system. If you don't have that component, you miss the entire installation, so all the other components.
That's an example why refrigeration was more impacted than HVAC. It's not the only example, but let's say refrigeration. It was much more visible in refrigeration, but it was impacting also HVAC. Again, it's being resolved very fast now already as we speak. Concerning pent-up demand, unfortunately, that's pretty difficult to estimate. It's not, it's not easy for us now to estimate pent-up demand.
There is, let's say, there is a significant backlog, that's for sure, that we see generated because of this shortage. In any case, since the shortage is being resolved, we will recover all this backlog in the coming months. Let's say this is not a lost business. It's something that we will recover in the following months.
Okay. Then we had the question on pricing and cost.
Sorry, I missed that one because, the line went down.
Okay, okay. Basically, I was asking where we are in terms of price increases, if we still have something to be passed in 2023. Also, which are the trends you have been seeing on the cost side, if you are still experiencing inflationary pressures, or if you are seeing some items, some purchases coming back, a little bit of a qualitative picture of that.
Okay. As you know, in 2022, we had the cost increases on average of, let's say, high single digit. For 2023, we still expect the cost inflation on electronics, not on the other categories of material. Not on energy, of course, not on mechanics, not on metal, but mainly on electronics. We do expect cost increases in 2023, but to a lower extent compared to 2022.
We are applying a price increase in 2023 already, but of a lower magnitude compared to what we did in 2022. In general, we will continue with our general reactive approach. We will see where costs go, eventually we will see what to do with prices. We do expect to definitely apply much less price increases than what we did in 2022.
Can we assume that something in the 2%-3% region could be fair for 2023, assuming?
Yeah. You're talking about prices or costs? Sorry.
Prices.
Prices. Yes. We do expect, more or less, a low single digit price increase. Yeah.
Okay, maybe I have two additional questions. The first one is a follow-up on refrigeration. You talk about the possibility for this business segment to be impacted by some economic slowdown. I was wondering if, barring, of course, the shortage of components, you're already seeing something or if this that you mentioned is just a possibility. Very last question for a modeling purposes. What should we expect for next year in terms of financial charges? Debt has come down. On the other hand, we have this interest rates coming up. Is it fair to assume something in the EUR 3 million region? Thank you.
Okay. Niccolo, in terms of refrigeration, yes, the market sentiment in general is of a likely, let's say, lower growth in 23 compared to the previous years. We're not talking about a decrease in the markets. We're talking about a lower growth rate. That's the sentiment of the market and what we expect. Let's say that we are probably starting to see some early signs of a softer order intake, let's say beyond the backlog that we have, of course. Some softer order intake. That's pretty likely. Again, we're talking about a lower growth rate and not a decrease.
On the other end, let's say, it's definitely too early to say, but there could be positive surprises in China, as you know, because there are strong expectations for a recovery on the market, and refrigeration was very weak last year in China. There could be a positive surprise, but it's still too early to see any visible signs there.
Let's say in Europe, especially in Europe, there is this very likely, let's say, softening of growth because of cautiousness related to especially cost inflation. We have been expecting that for a while now. That typically is very short-term because the food retailers start again investing also because there's the, I mean, regulation that is driving them to invest. For the interest rates, I leave it to Nicola.
Yes. On the interest rate, we expect the financial charges to have an increase in 2023 compared to 2022. It will be the increase similar to what happened in 2022 compared to 2021. You know, this is for the typical part of the financial charges. I do not, I'm not taking in consideration evaluation on the put and call option that we have, for example, with the, say, the minority stake. We expect that this increase, because, you know, we have a part that is at fixed rate, and a part that is on a variable rate, a part will be increased.
Okay. more in the EUR 4 million range than EUR 3 million.
Yes, sir. Something like this.
Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Alessandro Tortora from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Yes. I would ask from again, Francesco, just a follow-up on the price trend and the price component. Can you remind us, considering the organic growth you achieved in the full year 2022, what is the portion related to price increases considering the serial price increases you made last year? Thanks.
Yeah. It's a mid to high single digit. It's mid to high single digit effect in 2022.
Okay. From what, let's say, you mentioned before, probably we are still far from coming back to the, how can we say, the automatic price listing revision year by year made by your OEMs, considering that we are still an inflationary, let's say, scenario for electronic components. Is it fair to say that we are still talking about, let's say, some inflationary trend for you for, let's say, your electronic components and therefore no revision in the price listing for OEMs?
Okay. No, no, Alessandro. In this moment, we don't see in the short term a return to a deflationary context.
Mm-hmm.
Not on the cost side and not even on the price side, of course. Both sides will increase less than 22, we still are not seeing a deflationary situation.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Francesco. Yes.
The next question is from Gian Bompun from GMP. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Two questions, Francesco. First one is regarding the cash generation of the business. Can you confirm the actual free cash flow generated last year? More generally, what type of cash conversion from EBIT or EBITDA should we work with when we look at CAREL? That's the first question. The second question is now that the debt is significantly sub one time EBITDA, that gives you probably much higher capacity for acquisition, maybe up to EUR 200 million, something like that. Should we expect larger acquisitions going forward?
Okay. Hi, Gian. Thanks for the question. I'm taking the second one. Yes, we do aim probably in the future for bigger transactions on average. Because we are bigger, we are more firepower. We have been building a track record and experience in acquisitions. Definitely our target is to increase the average size of our transactions.
The answer is yes. Nothing transformational. We're not looking actively for anything transformational, but bigger, yes. Bigger meaning so far, let's say, we had transactions of up to EUR 30 million in turnover. Bigger means from there on, let's say, but not transformation. I'm not actively looking for transformation. Now, I leave it to Nicola for the first question.
Yes. With reference to the cash conversion, we expect for the next year, something like the 40%-50%.
This influenced to the investment policy of the company. We have, we have program with the relevant CapEx. As we said before, it was around the 5% of the net sales. We expect a trend between 40% and 50% of the, of the EBITDA.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Gianluca Pediconi from MOMentum. Please go ahead. Mr. Pediconi, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Oh, sorry. Can you hear me?
Yes, Gianluca, we can.
Okay, perfect. My follow-up question is just a clarification on the material, the component shortage. Last week, I met a few Nordic Industrial Company. None of them competitors of or customers, so not in the same industry of CAREL, but they were flagging higher labor costs and rising component costs, but they were not complaining any longer about any shortage of electronic material. Is it possible that this shortage is affecting just some very specific electronic components used in your industry?
Yeah. Yes. Yes, Gianluca. First of all, in general, industrial electronics is a very different context compared to consumer electronics. Consumer electronics, let's say the shortage is already gone, has been gone for months now. In industrial electronics, due to the huge backlogs that were present in the supply chains, consumer electronics is still definitely tighter.
Inside that, the situation, even in industrial electronics, is better now overall. We had some issues on some very specific components that affected some, let's say, product lines. It was a very specific issue related to very few components. And again, it's now being resolved. We do expect from now on a significant improvements on the supply chain.
Let's say, again, in general, though, there is one category of components that probably will remain tight for a while, which is power electronics for inverters. The demand for electrification, EVs, renewables and so on, will drive very strong demand for those kinds of components for a while.
We have been taking very strong countermeasures for that, and we have really a very, very resilient footprint now in terms of possibility of sourcing alternative power electronic modules. We're very confident about the future. This was really a pretty contingent and specific issue that lasted for a few weeks. Was pretty painful for those few weeks, but lasted just a few weeks. Things are improving very fast.
What I try to understand here is that was similar to all of your competitors. Your customers were not, let's say, disturbed by the fact that you were not able to supply some product.
Well, they were not happy, of course.
No, they were not happy, but that was not a CAREL specific issue.
No, it was, No.
It was an industry-wide issue.
Definitely. For example, power electronics.
Okay.
Is definitely a general issue. Likewise, the issue on the hubs, let's say the supervisory systems for supermarkets I was mentioning before was pretty generalized.
It was not due to a stock which was, let's say, too tight, or something like that.
No.
At the end of the day, what I am interested is no major complainer, let's say you didn't lose any customer because of it.
No. Let's say, in general, in general, no. Also because again, it's in our business model, it's typically not really possible to change the supplier for, in just a few weeks. No. It's basically postponed projects.
Okay.
Postponed demand. In this situation, I mean, considering the mess, which has been going on for so long now on the supply chain, I don't think that we were being, we have been worse than our competitors. On the contrary, I mean, especially looking at the overall results, and also the fact that in Q4, even considering this situation, we've been growing organically double digits. I mean, the situation was not traumatic. It was just a contingent situation. Again, it's already improving very, very fast.
Thank you very much. Just wanted to be assured. Thank you.
Thank you.
Mr. Nalini, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. Thank you very much, everybody, for your attention and, your questions. Looking forward to speaking with you for, the Q1 2023 results. Bye.