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Earnings Call: Q3 2025

Nov 13, 2025

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Carel School conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Carel 2025 first nine months results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Francesco Nalini, CEO of Carel Industries. Please go ahead, sir.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to our call for the presentation of this first nine months 2025 results. I'm starting, as usual, from page three with the most relevant highlights. I'm very happy to report that this has been another very strong quarter. In Q3, organic revenue grew by 14%, slightly above our expectations, and this, in turn, led to a further improvement in EBITDA margin. It reached, in the period, the highest level of the past seven quarters, coming back to the levels of 2023. Year-to-date revenue was EUR 463.7 million, up 7.1% compared to the first nine months of 2024, or 8.4% organic, that is, excluding exchange rates. Such growth was very distributed across regions and across markets. HVAC has been the primary growth driver, with over 14% organic growth in Q3.

Data centers were the strongest vertical, but also commercial and residential had very good performance. As expected, refrigeration had a strong rebound after a contingent time in effect in Q2, with approximately 13% organic growth in the period. Adjusted EBITDA in the nine months was 19.8% of sales, while reported EBITDA was 19.6%. In the third quarter, profitability has been approximately 21%, thanks to operating leverage, to the ongoing positive trend in raw material costs and the accretive contribution from digital services, while R&D expense remains at the target level of above 5% of sales. Very good operating performance, together with the positive development of working capital, led to a really strong cash generation, reducing net debt to approximately EUR 14.8 million, down from EUR 50.2 million at the end of 2024.

Net operating cash flow in these nine months has been, in fact, double the one of the same period of last year. If we exclude the impact of IFRS 16, corresponding to EUR 30.3 million, we actually are cash positive. Moving now to page four, we can provide some additional comments on these highlights. Q3 marked a further acceleration of revenues, up to EUR 463.7 million in the nine months from the EUR 432.9 million of 2024, corresponding to a year-to-date growth of 7.1%, or 8.4% if we exclude the foreign exchange effect. In this last quarter, all regions grew, all of them double digits organic, apart from South America. The top-line negative impact of the foreign exchange was EUR 3.7 million in the quarter, mainly due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar.

EBITDA adjusted for some non-recurring costs related to our reorganization grew by 15.7% in the nine months to EUR 91.9 million, up from the EUR 79.4 million of 2024. Corresponding profitability has been 19.8%, up both from the 18.3% of the first nine months of 2024 and from the 19.3% of the first half of this year. Again, this improvement is due to operating leverage, raw material costs, the accretive contribution from digital services, in particular Kiona, of course, and the ongoing optimization of operating processes in the group. It's also due to the good level of natural hedging that we maintain in our operations, offsetting the majority of the negative impact of the exchange rate we have on the top line. In fact, the negative impact at the EBITDA level of the foreign exchange is less than EUR 2 million in the nine months.

The target level of R&D at above 5% of sales has been confirmed. Net profit in the nine months was up 6.6% to EUR 42.3 million from the EUR 40.2 million of last year, so back to growth in spite of the absence of some relevant extraordinary accounting items that were present last year and in spite of the negative foreign exchange effect. Tax rate in the nine months was 23.1%, essentially in line with last year. CapEx at EUR 15.3 million were down from the record EUR 22 million of last year, but please consider that last year was actually a record one for CapEx since, among other things, we realized a new research laboratory in Padova and we expanded the mechanics plant in Poland. Moving now to page five, we can comment on the revenue breakdowns. To the left, we see the breakdowns by region.

EMEA sales grew by 6% in the nine months net of the foreign exchange. In Q3, we continued to have very positive momentum, particularly in HVAC commercial and residential. At the same time, we had, as expected, a strong rebound in refrigeration after a temporary time-in effect in Q2, with the sector growing by 10% organic in the quarter. Asia-Pacific grew in the nine months by 3.4% organic. Q3 was still solid, with 10% organic growth after a very strong Q2 when the region grew by 17%. We had excellent results in China and India, thanks to data centers and refrigeration, while South Asia-Pacific continued to suffer from a very weak macro. We believe, though, that South Asia-Pacific has now bottomed out in terms of macro and also in terms of execution. Therefore, we are pretty confident of a good development of the area in the coming quarters.

The performance in North America continues to be outstanding, with 30% organic growth in the quarter in spite of already very high comparables, thanks especially to continued strong growth in data centers, but also thanks to excellent results in HVAC commercial. In the region, we are also very optimistic about coming developments in refrigeration, as well as in the introduction of the variable speed compressor technology. In South America, we are back to growth in the third quarter in spite of the economic uncertainty in Brazil, thanks to the good results in the other countries of the region. To the right, we have the breakdown by sector, and we can see that HVAC has been the biggest contributor to growth so far this year, with 9.4% organic growth, or 14% in the last quarter.

This result is very distributed across verticals, data centers most of all, but also commercial and residential, thanks to the recovery of the heat pump market in Europe. Refrigeration grew by 6% organic year-to-date, low teens in the quarter. In EMEA, we had the expected recovery after the short-term postponements of Q2, but we posted very good growth also in America and especially in Asia-Pacific, in particular in China, where we are gaining market share in the cold chain industry. I now leave it to Nicola to comment the items below EBITDA on page six.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, Carel Industries

Thank you, Francesco. The slide number six details the group results from the EBITDA to the net profit. The increase in D&A cost is related to the relevant CapEx activities performed last year. The financial charts improved compared to last year due to the combined effect of the reduction of interest rates and the improvement average net financial position of the period. It should be noted that the amount of interest paid to bank and other institutions is equal to EUR 1.6 million versus EUR 2.4 million of last year. The residual amount refers to accounting effect. The evolution of Forex result compared to last year was mainly impacted by the evolution of NOK against the euro. 2024 figures were also impacted by the capital gain related to the difference between the estimated fair value and the actual amount of the put and call option of CFM for EUR 3.4 million.

The tax rate of the period was 23.1%, in line with the same period of last year. It is important to point out that the Chinese tax authorities confirmed the status of high-tech company to our local subsidiaries, granting a favorable tax rate for another three years. The group net profit at the end of September 2025 was equal to EUR 42.3 million compared to EUR 39.7 million of the same period of 2024. Slide number seven shows the net financial position evolution of the first nine months of 2025. The cash generated by the group in the period was very strong. The free cash flow of the first nine months of 2025 was equal to EUR 63.35 million compared to EUR 17.9 million of the same period of previous year. In June 2025, the group paid dividend for EUR 18.6 million.

Taking out the accounting effect of IFRS 16, the group is in cash positive for EUR 15.5 million. I leave Francesco to go on with the closing remarks.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Thank you, Nicola. I'm now on page eight. Q3 was another strong quarter, even slightly ahead of expectations, with a good performance very distributed across verticals and across regions, based on favorable trends in the markets, but also on the group capacity to execute its strategy in terms of technology and in terms of channels and path to market, with higher effectiveness granted by our new organizational model. EBITDA profitability improved even further in this last quarter, reaching the highest level of the past seven. This is due to operating leverage, positive raw materials cost developments, and the expansionary effect of digital services and Kiona in particular. The negative effect of the foreign exchange is mitigated by natural hedging, a long-standing objective of the group.

All of this, plus solid working capital management, resulted in very strong cash generation, with a net operating cash flow double the one of the first nine months of 2024, and bringing the group to a cash positive position if we exclude IFRS 16. Please let me emphasize once again that these results demonstrate the solidity and resilience of our business model and execution capabilities, since such results are not just due to one vertical or one region, even if, of course, data centers and North America are the fastest growing, but they are very well distributed across many markets and geographies. Surely, the group is working for the opportunities of the future, developing and introducing new technologies and executing the diversification of sales, channels, and business models.

To conclude, while the macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging and volatile, the group expects a substantial continuity with the trends observed in the previous period. As a result, we expect to maintain in Q4 substantial growth from Q4 last year, with quarterly revenues broadly in line with those reported in the third quarter. Thank you very much for your attention. We are now happy to answer all of your questions.

Operator

This is the Carel Industries Conference Operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. To remove your question, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Nicola [Stoller] for Kepler. Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. I have a few. Let's start from the first one. It's about HVAC. Francesco, if you can help us making a sort of ranking of the main verticals. If I remember well, in Q1, heat pumps were even stronger than data centers. Now, you said that data centers were the strongest, but at the same time, that heat pumps accelerated even further. Just to clarify this and also on commercial HVAC, if you can confirm whether this was still up in the double digit or not. Second question is about your guidance. Basically, if I put the same number of Q3 in Q4, we would have a slight slowdown compared to the growth that we have seen in Q3. Is there any reason why you are assuming that?

Are you seeing any of the verticals maybe slowing down, or is it just a matter of caution also due to December, which is always a very unpredictable month? Third question is about CapEx. I understand that you have had a tough comparison compared to last year, but if I look at Q3, the amount spent is just EUR 2 million, which seems quite low. What is going on here and what should we expect going forward? My last question is about, again, heat pumps maybe. If you have, let's say, a view about what has been happening on the market, and in particular, if you are seeing any mismatch between production and sales levels, because clearly numbers are very strong, but not in all the geographies.

There are some countries which are much stronger than others, so I was wondering if we might get back to a sort of 2023, 2024 scenario, or at least we have this risk. Thank you.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Okay, thanks, Nicola, for the questions. Starting from HVAC, basically, the ranking among the different sub-verticals of HVAC in terms of percentage growth is similar to Q2. The fastest growing is residential, of course, starting from a significantly smaller base. The percentage is the highest, but of course, the absolute value is smaller. Second, data centers, and third, commercial, and fourth, industrial excluding data centers. I will come back to the heat pumps for your last question. Data centers is, of course, extremely strong, particularly in North America, but it is also very strong in especially China and India in Asia-Pacific. We are seeing some slight pickup also in Europe, even if we are still far from the levels of investment and growth that we are experiencing in North America.

Let's say we are optimistic about a pickup of data centers soon enough also in Europe. Commercial is also posting solid growth, especially in America and Europe. Here, we have, let's say, the positive development of the market, but we have also some very specific effects related to our strategy execution, in particular cross-selling and the penetration of the ventilation market. Cross-selling, for example, in the U.S. with inverters, that are doubling the value in this nine months from the first nine months of 2024. Of course, the value is still small, but I mean, they're growing very, very fast. Plus, we have the cross-selling of the mechanical components in ventilation that, if you remember, has been a strategy that we have been pursuing for years. This also helps on top of the fact that the end market in commercial is recovering.

Finally, industrial is growing, but it's growing low single digits, let's say, and that's basically due to a number of weaknesses in the end markets like automotive, for example, or renewables in the U.S. that, of course, have been facing a setback. This is basically the ranking in HVAC that is approximately the same of Q2. Now, concerning Q4 and the percentage growth, yes, the percentage growth implied by the expectation we have is likely lower compared to what we experience in Q3. Let's say that we don't see significant differences in the trends and everything from Q3. The point is we have two aspects to consider. The first is that Q4 last year was strong for being a Q4, because you know that normally Q4 is the weakest quarter of the year, but Q4 last year was strong.

Second, we have the uncertainty related to December, because December, like August, probably even more than August, is a pretty volatile month, because some customers, some big OEMs, especially in Europe, could take the opportunity to shut down the factories to basically reduce inventory or, let's say, for their logistic tactics. It could be a volatile month. Let's say we take some cautiousness here. These are the two elements to consider. Having said that, we do not foresee any changes in the trends for the near future. Now, I'll leave it to Nicola for the CapEx. Before, let me answer for the heat pumps. Yes, we are seeing a significant recovery in Europe in heat pumps. Probably most of it is related to the fact that now the overstocking is completely over, so production is trailing demand.

We, let's say, we do not have any signals that there is some significant overstocking in the market in this moment. We are starting to see more and more customers, let's say, starting again with their growth. This remains, though, of course, a market with a number of uncertainties that we're all very aware of, so related to subsidies, to the level of stock, and so on. For the short term, we don't see any risks. Now, production from our customers should be trailing demand. Demand is finally picking up again, and because of the interest rates, which are lower, because incentives have, let's say, restarted in some countries. There's also the EPBD, I mean, which slowly, slowly is starting to become effective as a regulation in the different European countries. Let's say we are confident that this recovery should be relatively solid.

Having said that, I mean, for the long term, the heat pump market could remain volatile, but with a solid underlying growth rate, not explosive, but solid, yes, because, of course, it's a technology which is absolutely fundamental, as you know very well, for decarbonizing the building footprint of Europe. Let's say short answer is we don't see major risks in the short term. For the long term, this remains a pretty volatile market, but we have no evidence in this moment of specific risks. I'll leave it to Nicola for the CapEx.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, Carel Industries

Thank you, Francesco. With reference to the CapEx, we confirm our mid-term view to have something like 5% of the revenues invested in CapEx last year. It depends on even the weight of the project that sometimes when there are relevant projects and they finalize in a quarter, the percentage could be higher. If you remember last year, it was something like 5.5% of the revenues. This year, we will be closer to 4% than 5%. Now we are in the budget period. We are discussing about some important projects for the following years, and we are foreseeing in the future again to come back to 5%.

Thanks both. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Christian Hinderaker from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Christian Hinderaker
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. My first one is a little bit of an expansion maybe on the residential HVAC market and the growth acceleration you've seen there. I guess just curious in terms of your exposure, if there's any distinction across geographies or technologies, i.e., if you're supplying particularly into air-to-air products or air-to-water or geothermal, and any color you can add in that context would be very helpful. That's the first question.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Yeah, sure. The exposure we're seeing in this moment in particular for growth is, well, our exposure in general, our customer base is pretty spread all over Europe, plus China to some extent. In this moment, the biggest growth is coming from Germany and Northern Europe, and it's coming mainly from air-to-water heat pumps because those are, let's say, where most of the volumes are, especially in this moment. Of course, we work also with the geothermal, but in this moment, most of the volumes are coming from the air-to-water.

Christian Hinderaker
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Maybe one for Nicola, perhaps. We've talked about CapEx, but you've flagged the DNA cost increase that's followed the higher CapEx from last year. I'm just curious if we think of Q3 now as the reasonable run rate we should project going forward for DNA.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, Carel Industries

Yes, Christian, I think so. It could be a good comparison for projecting the evolution of the D&A cost for the next few quarters.

Christian Hinderaker
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Maybe we should just come back to the data center dynamic. You touched on maybe some hopes that that explosive growth in North America spreads to Europe. Can you just talk a little bit about how you think about the European opportunity next year and beyond, and I guess what it is you think that drives that distinction? Is it an issue with permitting in Europe versus the U.S.? Is it just where the hyperscalers are choosing to invest? Any added color on that market distinction would be helpful.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Yeah, Christian, I think it's, yeah, as I said, we are seeing some acceleration in Europe, but still very far from the American levels. I believe that the real growth will start when especially the hyperscalers will start to deploy data centers with data centers, let's say, in Europe in a widespread way. This is, I mean, happening in a very fragmented way now in this moment. For sure, in Europe, there are higher constraints than in the U.S. in terms of the availability of land, in terms of the availability of energy. This is, and also regulation, I mean, often doesn't help. There are a number of limitations here.

I'm pretty confident that the European Commission and also the European Parliament are very aware that we need these investments and that they need to, let's say, make things as easy as possible for the hyperscalers to invest in Europe. I'm confident that this acceleration will come sooner or later. We are seeing already an improvement. I hope it will continue. Of course, very difficult to say exactly what the pace will be or the timing, but I'm pretty confident of a positive development in the not-so-far future.

Christian Hinderaker
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you, Francesco. Thank you, Nicola.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Natasha Brilliant from UBS. Please go ahead.

Natasha Brilliant
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thank you very much for taking my questions. My first one is I just wanted to come back on the beat in Q3 where you delivered ahead of guidance. Are there any areas in particular that were much better than expected? Because I guess we anticipated that recovery in refrigeration, but any color on what has performed better than you thought a few months ago would be helpful. My second question is just around capital allocation and M&A. Any update there you can give us on priorities and the pipeline, just given the strong cash flow generation that you mentioned? Finally, just on Kiona, clearly that's performing well, both in terms of top line and margin. How sustainable is that? If you can give us any thoughts over the coming quarters. Thank you.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Okay. Thanks, Natasha, for the question. Let's say that, first of all, if you remember, when we provided the guidance for Q3, we had some elements of cautiousness related to the volatility of August, which is like December. It tends to be a volatile month. Fortunately, August performed well, so we did not have any negative effects from that. Second, probably what has slightly overperformed the expectations in general is the development of the North American market because it is really performing very, very well. In some cases, the growth has been limited by the capacity, I have to say. Of course, I mean, we are working on that, so it is being adjusted as we speak. Let's say that in the very short term, growth in some cases, especially in data centers, has been so fast that capacity locally in the U.S. has represented a slight bottleneck.

I would say that probably a good August and very strong United States are what led to the beat. In terms of M&A, our pipeline remains more or less, let's say the guidelines remain more or less the same. We are also considering, but this is, let's say, slightly different also in terms of size of the possible deals. We are increasingly considering open innovation by, for example, investing minority shares in small companies having interesting technologies. Apart from that, the guidelines remain essentially the same.

The first priority in this very moment is technologies, complementary technologies that we can add to our system to complete our offer, especially in some very vertical specialized industrial niches, because we believe that there are some interesting industrial niches that could represent a very good development for the future and where we can leverage on our integrated system developing a specialized solution and innovating also in terms of the innovating for us also on the sales channel by developing a more end-user pool approach. Basically providing much higher value in these selected specialized vertical niches. In this case, there are some adjacent technologies that we need and that we are looking for and that we have in the pipeline. Kiona also very well, profitability well in excess of 25%, growth well in the double digits.

We started the international expansion, so we are basically staffing Kiona resources in different European countries. We are also preparing to introduce Kiona in the U.S., basically to support our growth in refrigerations because we have very good opportunities there. Kiona can definitely help and support this. On the technology side with Kiona, we are continuing to work on the integration with our system, and we are working basically to deploy algorithms increasingly powered by AI to be more and more powerful. This is something that we're doing across the board, of course, in the group, but this is very important for Kiona since they do software. Definitely the growth for Kiona is sustainable because, I mean, we haven't seen the real international expansion yet. We believe that these results for Kiona are not only sustainable, but, I mean, should also improve in the future.

Natasha Brilliant
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

That's very clear. Thank you.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Alessandro Tortora of Mediobanca. Please go ahead, sir.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, thanks. Okay. The first question, sorry, good afternoon to everybody. I have, let's say, three, let's say four questions. Okay. The first one is, sorry, Francesco, to come back to the data center, but considering the comment you made, but also it's a very good performance in the U.S. this year, and there are some other regions that are joining this trend even gradually. How do you see, let's say, this vertical going forward? Do you see the possibility for further acceleration, or maybe do you see, I do not know, a kind of normalization in the growth in the U.S., maybe no? Then supported by European data. Just to get an idea of how do you see going forward, because again, we are talking about a very important growth, 30%, particularly by data center in North America. This is the first question, thanks.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Okay. [Foreign language], Alessandro. Thanks for the question. Yeah, data, in terms of future development for data centers, if we could see further acceleration, in principle, absolutely yes, because first of all, as you said, investment should improve also in other parts of the world, Europe in the first place on top of the U.S. We, again, have seen good performance also in Asia, and South Asia-Pacific is expected to improve also in this respect. There is a positive evolution of the market expected outside North America, but there is also the fact that we are, as a deliberate strategy, investing more on data centers in terms of technology development. I think I already mentioned that we created a data center competence center in the United States, investing both on technology and on the evolution of the sales channel in order to be more effective in the end-user pool.

We are doing a similar, we started a similar thing in China, but this is a general initiative, not as strong as in the U.S. and China, but it is a general initiative that we are rolling out all around the world. This also should provide acceleration. Having said that, all of this depends on the evolution of the end market, of course. This is assuming that the end market continues more or less with the pace it has been having so far. If there are no surprises on the end market evolution, yes, the market could very well accelerate. That is our intention, actually. We hope so.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. Thanks. Then the second question is on the refrigeration trend. Clearly, we saw this acceleration in the third quarter. Do you deem as sustainable, let's say, this finally double-digit growth trend, or I am mainly referring, let's say, to EMEA, but basically, do you see also some clients maybe making some stop-and-go in terms of quoting activity? Just a flavor of, we finally got the growth from refrigeration. How do you see, let's say, going forward this division? Thanks.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Yes, Alessandro. Yes, we're back to double-digit growth in refrigeration, which is our mid-cycle expectations for this market. I mean, the trends we see, for example, in Europe are the usual ones. We have the forecast transition. If we move to China, we have the development of the cold chain, which is where they're making significant investments. We're going to see a recovery in South Asia, in the South Asia-Pacific region that have been very, very soft in the last few quarters. That's an additional upside. Plus, we have not to forget that we have very good opportunities in the United States. I mean, we are pretty optimistic about the developments there thanks to the transition of the refrigerants and, in general, of the technology. Our expectations for refrigeration mid-cycle definitely remain in the double digits. Of course, this is mid-cycle.

The individual quarter in a specific market like refrigeration could have fluctuations. Needless to say, we can have projects moving, I mean, back and forth. That's normal, and we've seen it happening all the time. Mid-cycle, we definitely maintain a double-digit growth expectation for refrigeration.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. Thanks. The last, let's say, the third question, Francesco, is on I just heard about, let's say, your CapEx, organic CapEx pipeline, but also, let's say, some organic projects, maybe also to increase capacity or maybe also building, let's say, some new facilities. Can you give us, let's say, some idea of where you're going to invest? For instance, you mentioned before also Inverter is an area that is growing a lot. Can you give us an idea of where you're going, let's say, to invest these roughly 5% of sales in the coming years?

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Yeah, sure. Probably the next investments in terms of production capacity, for example, will be in America where we will need, first of all, to deploy Inverter production, but we will also probably build another facility in the not-so-distant future, considering the growth we are experiencing. Another expansion will be in Europe. Somewhere in Europe, we will also build a new facility, basically for supporting growth in Europe because, yes, Europe is, I mean, growing less than America, but the volume is big. We need to expand the capacity for the growth that we are having in any case. In China, I mean, the capacity we have should be able to support for the near future. Eventually, probably we will evaluate some manufacturing capability outside China and Asia, but this is not short term. It is something more long term.

In terms of, let's say, the usual maintenance CapEx, we have these things in sight. Of course, we are continuing to invest in the digitalization of all the processes of the group, investing in the IT systems for the processes of the group to manage the supply chain, to manage R&D, and so on. This is the main maintenance CapEx. Of course, we have all the chapters related to R&D where, I mean, we are definitely continuing to increase the investment, and we will continue to increase the investment in research and development.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. Thanks. The last question is for Nicola. You already know Nicola gave us an idea on the CapEx by AREND. Can you also elaborate a little bit on working capital? Absorption was basically zero. How should we think about, let's say, the working capital, net working capital sales ratio for this year? Also, let's say, going forward, if we should think about some, let's say, normal absorption, okay, into this metric. You also mentioned China, whether you got, let's say, these tax benefits for the next years. On the tax rate for at considered level, if we should stick to the 22%-23%. Thanks.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, Carel Industries

Yes. With reference to the working capital, so the trade working capital, we are very close to the 20% on the net sales. It is what we are even expecting for the year-end in the future, this year-end and even in the future. As you know, account receivables are pretty much stable. We can, in the mid-term, gain some days in terms of payables with supplier. The management of inventory is very tactical for us. We have no big pressure on the net financial position. We can manage the inventory in order to give the better service to our customers. It can happen that in some quarter it could be even higher, but it is just a tactical approach in order to guarantee the better service to our customers.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

I would suggest you to consider something like 20% in terms of trend working capital of the net sales. With reference to the Chinese benefit that we have, the tax benefit, it is that for the high-tech companies, the tax rate applied is 15% of the corporate income tax despite 25%. It was something that was already obtained in the past, and it is guaranteed for another three years. It is based on the relevant investment in R&D that we are doing even in this part of the world, and it is something that will guarantee us a stable tax rate even in the future.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. Gotcha.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Alessandro Cecchini of Equita. Please go ahead, sir.

Alessandro Cecchini
Equity Analyst, Equita

My questions for the conference call as well. Just one question. About margins, we know that typically the fourth quarter in your traditional experience in the past was seasonally lower than the third quarter. Do you expect this kind of topic also this year? Last year, I remember that was probably a special year given some efficiencies, extra efficiencies. If you can elaborate a little bit more on this, it could be helpful. Thank you.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Yes. Even this year, like the year before last year, until 2023, we expect that the fourth quarter will be with some operational costs higher than in the past. It is a typical trend of our company, of our industry. It is something that we will confirm even for this year.

Alessandro Cecchini
Equity Analyst, Equita

Okay. Thank you.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Yeah. Q4, yeah, sorry, Alessandro. Yes. Basically, Q4 last year, as you know, we did some savings on discretionary expenses considering the trend of the turnover that we are not doing this year because, of course, there is no reason to. Yes, this Q4, as Nicola was saying, we reverted to the historical seasonality with the lower profitability compared to the rest of the year.

Alessandro Cecchini
Equity Analyst, Equita

Okay. Many thanks. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is a follow-up of Natasha Brilliant . Please go ahead, madam. We are about to close the question-and-answer session. Please press star and one for your question. There are no more questions registered this time.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, Carel Industries

Okay. Thank you very much, everybody, for your time, your attention, and your questions. Looking forward to speaking to you again for the presentation of the full-year results. Bye. [Foreign language].

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.

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