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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Nov 4, 2021

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the CAREL first nine months 2021 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Francesco Nalini, CEO of CAREL. Please go ahead, sir.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody, and thanks for joining our call for the presentation of the nine-month 2021 results. I'm moving straight to page two with the main financial highlights. As expected in this quarter, tensions on the global supply chain, in particular for electronic components, intensified. In spite of this, we managed to achieve in the quarter, so June to September, a very good growth of 15% on a like-for-like basis. Over a third quarter of last year that was already pretty positive because we had a growth of almost 8%. This is thanks to the actions and investments that the group has been taking to increase its resiliency. This led to a growth in the nine-month of 25.1%.

If we exclude almost EUR 3 million of negative effect from the foreign exchange and EUR 9.4 million of positive effect coming from the consolidation of CFM and Enginia, in any case, organic growth was well above 20% at 22.6%. Demand was very positive across the board, like in the first six months, and also the outlook remains very positive. Growth was lower than in the first half, entirely due to the shortage. In any case, most of the backlog will be recovered in the coming quarters. EBITDA margin adjusted was 21.9%, up 230 basis points on the nine months of 2020 and 220 basis points over the full year.

This excellent performance was mainly driven by operating leverage as well as by the cost containment measures we have been taking since last year. This offset higher input costs due to the shortage, as well as a slightly different product mix effect, again, due to the shortage. On the cost side, we have to say that we still have to see the full effect of the actions we took on prices due to the long lead times which are present in this moment in the supply chain. We will see the full effect in the coming quarters. What I mean by product mix is that the more sophisticated programmable controllers that use more microprocessors were affected more than other platforms by the shortage, that sits mainly on the HVAC commercial and HVAC industrial applications, which are pretty sophisticated applications.

These products tend to have a slightly above-than-average profitability. This effect, in any case, is entirely temporary and due to the shortage and will go away as soon as the shortage improves. Organic net financial position, so net of M&A, decreased by 30%, where the cash flow from operations in the nine months of EUR 55 million, easily covering EUR 14 million of increase in net working capital, which was driven by a wanted increase in inventory as well as a higher volume of business, for EUR 14 million of CapEx, as we will see, and EUR 12 million of dividends. I'm now moving to page three with some more economic details. Revenues at EUR 310.3 million were up 25.1% from 248 million in the nine months of 2020.

We had almost EUR 3 million of negative effect from the exchange rate. If we adjust for this, revenues at EUR 313 million were 26.2% above last year. If we take out the EUR 9.4 million coming from the contribution of CFM and Enginia, revenues like for like were EUR 300.9 million with a growth of 21.4% over last year. In the chart on the top right, we can see that this 21.4% increase applies also if we make the comparison with 2019, since in the first 9 months of 2020, revenues were in line with the previous year. EBITDA at EUR 66 million was up 36.1% from the EUR 48.5 million of last year.

If we adjust for the non-recurring items mainly related to our M&A activity, adjusted EBITDA was EUR 68 million with an increase of 39.6%. This means that profitability in the nine months was 21.9%, up from the 19.6% in the first nine months of 2020. Net profit was EUR 38.8 million, with a 48.2% increase from the 26.2 of last year, thanks to the operating performance and also thanks to a strong improvement in the tax rate compared to last year. Since the tax rate was 20.8% against the 23% last year, mainly due to a favorable geographical profit mix. CapEx were EUR 13.8 million, up 77% from the EUR 7.8 million in the first nine months of 2020.

They are in line with expectations, and they include the construction of the new factory in Croatia. I'm now moving to page four with the revenue breakdowns by region and sector. To the left, we can see the breakdown by region. EMEA net of foreign exchange grew by 25.4%. Here we have the main contribution coming from CFM and Enginia that mainly exist in this region. In any case, the purely organic growth in the quarter, June to September, was above 13% in this region, despite a very challenging supply chain situation. In Asia Pacific, sales grew by 30.4% net of the foreign exchange. Here we have an exceptional result in China, but also a good performance in Southeast Asia despite the extensive lockdowns that happened in the region.

In China, we continue to see a very strong demand, basically across the board. In HVAC, all applications are growing very well and have a very positive outlook, so data centers, industrial, commercial, heat pumps, as well as projects related to indoor air quality. Also food service had a very good growth in China. The only application that had a softer growth in China was food retail, because we noticed a slowdown of investment in the end market, but we have also to consider that we come from a few quarters of exceptional growth in food retail in China. Also some consolidation was to be expected. In any case, also for food retail in China, the outlook and the expectations for the future are very positive. Also thanks to the execution of our strategy in China.

In North America, sales grew by 22.5% net of foreign exchange. Here we have some contribution from Enginia. If we take that out, sales grew by approximately 18%, which is in line with the growth in the first half. This result is particularly positive if we consider that in North America there is a bigger impact due to the shortage since North America is heavily exposed to HVAC industrial and HVAC commercial, as I was mentioning before. North America was more than other regions impacted by the shortage, but despite this, they managed to maintain an organic growth like in the first half. In Latin America, sales grew by 48.8% net of the foreign exchange with a very good result in Brazil and in the rest of the region.

If we move to the right to the breakdown by sector, HVAC grew by 24.2% net of the foreign exchange or 20% organic. We have a very strong demand in all applications in HVAC, in, again, data centers, industrial, heat pumps, commercial, indoor air quality, and air handling units. Demand is extremely positive, and we also expect very positive, results coming in the future from the European Union policies for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings. In refrigeration, sales grew by 30.9% net of the foreign exchange or 25% organically. We have a very strong result in food service that picked up again after 2020. We have a very good result in food retail, especially in Europe.

Besides China, in Europe, food retail is benefiting from a very strong recovery of the investment cycle, also compounded by the pursuit for energy efficiency and sustainability. In both markets, HVAC and refrigeration, growth was lower than in the first half, entirely due to the shortage. Demand is still very strong, and all the backlog that was accumulated will be recovered in the coming quarters. The non-core business finally grew by 7.7%, and so we landed a total revenue growth net of the foreign exchange by 26.2%. I now leave it to Nicola to comment on the items below the breakdown on page five.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, CAREL

Thank you, Francesco. The slide number five details the group result from the EBITDA to net profit. The first nine months result was impacted by higher D&A cost, mainly related to M&A activities performed during the present year and the consequent purchase price allocation process. In the period under review, the financial charges were higher compared to last year due to an increase in the IFRS 16 effect. Such growth was in part compensated by a better result of the company's consolidation with the equity method. The tax rate of the period was equal to 20.8%, below 2020 level. Such a decrease is mainly related to a different country mix. The group net profit as at September 29, 2021 was equal to EUR 38.8 million compared to EUR 26.2 million of the same period of 2020.

Slide number six shows the net financial position evolution of the first 9 months of 2021. As at September 2021, the net financial position was equal to EUR 68.5 million compared to EUR 49.6 million at the end of December 2020. Excluding IFRS 16 liabilities, the net financial position as at September 2021 amounted to EUR 40.3 million. The cash flow from operations of the period was equal to EUR 55 million. The increase in net working capital was mainly driven by seasonal effect. It should be noted that the DSO at the end of the period slightly improved compared to September 2020 level. In June, the group paid dividend of around EUR 12 million. In 2021, M&A activities impacted the net financial position for around EUR 35 million.

At the end of September, the group has amount of cash equivalent and available credit line of more than EUR 100 million. I leave the floor to Francesco to go on with the presentation.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Thank you, Nicola. I am on page seven with the closing remarks. On the demand side, the same very positive trends that we reported in the first half are still there in the third quarter with the same intensity and with a very positive outlook. In HVAC, we have a very good demand in all applications, heat pumps, data centers, indoor air quality and air handling units. In refrigeration, we have a strong recovery in food service, as well as a very good result in food retail, especially in Europe, driven by a strong recovery of the investment cycle, also driven by regulation and the pursuit for sustainability. In general, the pandemic as well as the recent spike in the price of energy commodities is very much increasing the sensitivity of everybody for high efficiency solutions and sustainability.

Just as a matter of example, there is a regulation which is now proposed by the European Commission, and it is in discussion, the so-called Fit for 55, which basically asks countries to renovate 3% at least of all buildings every year compared to the current 1% of renovation cycle. It's three times the current investment required for renovating buildings for energy efficiency. This is just an example. The perspectives are very, very strong. On the operations side, as expected in this quarter, the tensions in the supply chain intensified.

We managed, in any case, to achieve, as we have seen, a 15% like-for-like growth in the quarter, June to September, over an already very good quarter last year, thanks to the actions that we took to increase our resiliency, like deployment of new production lines, homologation of alternative components, inventory increase and also chip pivoting, which means redesigning products to allow for the usage of different microprocessors. These actions will allow us to enter into 2022 with a much, much more solid, robust and resilient footprint compared to what we had at the beginning of the year. In the last few months, there has been extended lockdowns in Southeast Asia, where an important part of the supply chain for electronic components is located. This resulted in higher tensions that will also last through Q4.

in any case, we expect a slow improvement in the situation, in the coming quarters, also thanks to the actions that we have taken. thanks to this action, again, we achieved in the quarter a double digit like-for-like growth and a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter, despite all the inflationary pressures that we have. again, all these results are even more remarkable if we consider that the comparison is more challenging now because Q3 last year was pretty strong. to conclude, taking into account the very positive trend in demand along with the tight supply chain scenario, we move our previous revenues growth guidance for the full year from the 15%-20% range to, let's say, the upper half of this range, that is 17%-19%, excluding any contribution from M&A.

As far as profitability is concerned, as anticipated, we expect that for the full year, it will converge towards our historical target in the region of 20%. Also because I remind you that every year we see a slight reduction in Q4 due to seasonality. Thank you very much for your attention, and we're now more than happy to answer to all of your questions.

Operator

The first question is from Alessandro Tortora with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have, let's say, three questions. The first one is on the ongoing deterioration on the shortage side that you mentioned before. The question is, if you can share with us, let's say, any additional infos on the shortage, let's say, by division, if it's chiefly a matter related to the HVAC and if, let's say, on the refrigeration side, this is something, let's say, much more manageable. This is the first question.

Also, going forward, if you believe, let's say when, I know it's difficult, but when, do you believe that we can think about, let's say a normal pace of growth for CAREL without these constraint coming from chip shortage? The second question is on the working capital absorption, but also the CapEx side. If you can give us an update, because if I understood well, probably this is a year where it's difficult to build up inventories, then probably on the working capital side, maybe you are performing a bit better. Also on the CapEx side, if you can give us an update, because if I remember well, you were guiding something close to EUR 20 million this year.

Just to have an update if this is something confirmed by you. Thanks.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Hello. Okay, thanks for the questions, Alessandro. For your first question on the shortage. Yes, as I mentioned so far, in the last few months, the shortage affected the more sophisticated, let's say, the bigger programmable controllers because they use more microprocessors and are mainly used in HVAC, industrial, and commercial. Now this is going to improve in the coming month because of the actions we took mainly in terms of chip pivoting. This is going to improve pretty soon. On the other end, that we are seeing some tensions on other components, for example, for inverters. But we are of course now in this moment taking actions to overcome this.

Let's say for HVAC, industrial and commercial, this is something that will be resolved in a few months, pretty soon. We could see some additional tensions on inverters on the other end. Again, we are taking actions, so we believe, let's say that we can mitigate the effect. Now coming to the improvement. Unfortunately, the tensions due to the lockdowns in Southeast Asia that I mean happened during the summer, the tensions will last also through Q4. For, let's say, 2022, what we expect is a slow, and I mean slow, but continuous improvement in the situation in general, but also related to us, thanks to the actions that we have been taking.

Let's say that these actions will help us to mitigate the effect. I don't think we will come back to the full potential growth, let's say, very, very soon, but over the course of 2022, we will get close to the full potential of growth. I expect the situation to become normalized probably by the end of the year. This is of course a very, very difficult guess. I mean, it's just a guess, but I expect that maybe by the end of the year, the situation could become close to normal. We will mitigate, in any case, very much the effect through 2022, thanks to the actions that we have been taking. For working capital and CapEx, I leave it to Nicola.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, CAREL

Yes, Alessandro. With reference to working capital, our aim in the medium term is to increase the working capital, in particular to have more inventory in order to guarantee the service to our customers.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Mm. Mm.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, CAREL

If we get the view at year-end level in the long run, it will be around, let's say, 16% on the net sales, something like that. On CapEx, I confirm to you the level of around EUR 20 million of CapEx. We are investing in the new facility in Croatia in order to expand our facility there and the production site that we have. We are even building the new lines in order to produce the goods to guarantee the service to the market.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. Okay, thanks. Just two quick follow-up. The first one is on, let's say, the expectation that by year-end, EBITDA margin will be close to 20%. Considering that despite the shortage, let's say the top line will be still significantly up in the last quarter, are there any specific reason because implicitly you are telling us that the EBITDA margin will be like, I don't know, 17% or something, okay, in the last quarter of the year. Just to understand if there are any specific reason on top of what you already mentioned, like cost inflation behind these sequential decline in margin. The last follow-up was on order backlog. You already mentioned, Francesco, very strong demand.

Can you, let's say, share with us any outperformer by application inside, let's say, your order backlog that probably is, let's say, a bit stronger compared to normalized level? Thanks.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Okay, thanks. For the margin, I didn't say that it will be 20%. Let's say it will converge towards our historical target, which is in the region of 20%. Of course, it will very much depend on the final level of turnover growth that we will manage to achieve.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

The tensions that we are having on the cost side are mainly related to the gross profit in this moment. This is a contingent, of course, situation related to the shortage. As I mentioned, we are of course having inflationary pressures. We still have to see the full effect on prices from our actions because there are lengthy times, so the effect on prices is delayed compared to when we incur the costs. We will see the benefits in the coming quarters. So far we don't see much of that benefit, and that is one of the reasons. We will see the benefit in the future. Second reason is transportation costs.

For us, transportation costs of course have increased like for everybody else, but not as much as in other industries because our products are relatively light and small. However, since we are in the process of increasing the inventory, then, of course inbound transportation costs are visible in this very moment where they are expensive or visible because we're increasing the inventory. Another point is, as I mentioned, the product mix, because the more sophisticated controllers that have a slightly above than average profitability in this moment are suffering more. Finally, of course, in Q4 every year we have a seasonal effect because we incur some costs and also sales tend to be softer.

There is a number of reasons, mainly at the gross profit level that very contingent, very short term that basically could, let's say are putting some pressures on our profitability. Okay. Thanks.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Sorry, I forgot to answer to the second question of Alessandro. On the backlog. The highest backlog we have in this moment due to the shortage is in HVAC. Because again, in HVAC is where we use the vast majority of the more sophisticated controllers. Because we use them also in food retail, but in a lower number. While in HVAC with OEMs we use bigger number of those. In this moment, let's say the higher backlog is for sure concentrated in HVAC, mainly again in HVAC, industrial and HVAC commercial.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. [Non-English content], Francesco.

Operator

The next question is from Will Turner with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Will Turner
VP, Goldman Sachs

Hi, everyone. I've got a couple of questions. The first one is just regarding the acquisitions. In the quarter, you've mentioned that you've had EUR 9.4 million sales to date, and that implies about EUR 8 million in the third quarter. How have the acquisitions been growing? Because if we take like the 2020 sales that are reported, it implies quite a slowdown into the fourth quarter. How have those two acquisitions performed? Or is there a significant seasonality with them? That's the first question.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, CAREL

Okay. Will, the third quarter of the two companies, it was pretty good because it was around EUR 9.4 million of turnover, the two companies. That is, it was pretty good. Even in terms of profitability, it was a good result, and we are satisfied about the result of this. In terms of evolution of this company in the fourth quarter, we believe that CFM, it is pretty stable in terms of seasonality during the year. Instead, Enginia, maybe it was a good quarter, the third one. Typically the fourth quarter is something below the third quarter level.

Will Turner
VP, Goldman Sachs

In any case, the two companies grew in the third quarter.

Nicola Biondo
CFO, CAREL

Yes.

They had a good performance. The performance was good. In growth and higher than prior years, both of them.

Will Turner
VP, Goldman Sachs

Okay, great. In terms, do you have any idea of what the inventory levels of your customers are? Have you seen any signs of your customers maybe double ordering because they know that your parts are made with electronic or electrical components, and therefore they're trying to build up their own inventories?

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Okay. Of course we don't have a precise answer to this. We believe that our customers are like everybody else, probably trying to build up stock. They are for sure releasing orders with a longer time horizon and are trying to get the components. Probably their stock level could be high, but not for our components. Because what they do typically when they have some missing components, not only electronic controllers but also others, they do the manufacturing in any case and leave the units to be finished when the final components arrive. Maybe they are building up stock of whatever they can find and wait for the missing components to arrive.

I don't think that they have high stock levels of our components because as far as I know, like everybody, they are struggling with the current production. I don't believe they have high levels of stock, even if they are trying to.

Will Turner
VP, Goldman Sachs

Okay, great. Thanks. Those are my two questions.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Francesco Nalini
CEO, CAREL

Okay. Thank you very much for your attention. Looking forward to meeting you for the full year 2021 results. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over and you may disconnect your telephones.

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