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Earnings Call: Q1 2024

May 8, 2024

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the De Nora First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Chiara Locati, Head of IR and ESG. Please go ahead, Madam.

Chiara Locati
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, De Nora

Thank you. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our Q1 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. I'm Chiara Locati, Head of Investor Relations and ESG at De Nora. With me on the call today there are Paolo Dellachà, CEO of the group, and Massimiliano Moi, our CFO. They will drive you through the main achievements and financial results of the first quarter, and then we will open up a Q&A session. I would like to remind you that the slides of this presentation have been made available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, I would like to hand it over to Paolo. Paolo, the floor is yours.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Thank you, Chiara. Good afternoon, everyone. So let's start. Q1 has been a challenging start to the year. Nevertheless, our results were substantially in line with our business plan. Despite a demanding macroeconomic scenario, we achieved robust profitability and built our backlog to secure growth for the next quarters and years. EBITDA margin was at 19%, which was plentifully in line with the guidance announced in March, mainly thanks to Electrode Technologies business, which reported profitability of 26.9%, improving of 100 basis points versus Q1 2023. The backlog increased by 8% versus December 2023, with orders intake covering 1.3 times the quarter revenues. Our business model has, once again, proven resilient and robust even under challenging scenarios. Thanks to our unparalleled competitive positioning, established know-how, and enabled sufficient project execution and differentiation in our markets and geographies.

The revenue trend, as expected, was soft and impacted by about EUR 6 million throughout the Japanese yen. Compared with the first quarter of 2023, the performances were due to a mix of different drivers, particularly the production scheduling of some projects in chlor-alkali, which will nevertheless accelerate from Q2 2024. I also recall that Q1 2023 was a particularly positive quarter for the Electrode Technologies business due to some relevant contracts completed during the year, so there was quite a concentration of deliveries in that quarter. The energy transition business reported revenues in line with Q1 2023, and we realized the highest quarterly volume production level ever, delivering 330 MW of technologies for green hydrogen, as per our production plan. Green hydrogen backlog improved after signing new orders for more than 700 MW with our joint venture, thyssenkrupp nucera.

We are continuing to invest in research and development and innovation to keep and strengthen our unparalleled position in the green hydrogen space, even if it may temporarily reduce energy transition profitability. During the first quarter, we announced 2 publicly funded projects involving our proprietary electrolyzer, Dragonfly, in Italy and in Greece. The projects aim to test different uses of green hydrogen to decarbonize, hard-to-abate industry, mobility, and energy generation through fuel cells, of course. The water technologies business is facing a positive momentum, with the backlog improved by 7% compared to December 2023, following growing orders in both water technology systems and pools divisions. In addition, after a difficult 2023, the pools division is now growing sequentially, with Q1 2024 revenues up by 27% compared to the last quarter of 2023, confirming that the market is ready to start growing again.

On the side of manufacturing capacity expansion, we confirm our strategy to focus on readiness and flexibility to market trends, leveraging our versatile production setup. In this regard, in March, we inaugurated the capacity expansion of Okayama plant in Japan, which will produce cells and electrolyzers for various business lines, such as chlor-alkali and alkaline water electrolysis for hydrogen. In addition, as you may remember, in March, we were preselected with our partners for up to $80 million grant, out of which $50 million with our JV thyssenkrupp nucera dedicated to manufacturing expansion for green hydrogen technology in the U.S. with the Department of Energy. As we are committed to playing a key role in sustainability, we are pursuing our ESG plan execution, with the first initiatives already completed and the first intermediate targets already achieved.

At the same time, the ESG Rating Agency, MSCI, confirmed its leading rating as AA. Finally, despite a demanding macroeconomic scenario, we continue to build a solid foundation to drive long-term sustainable and profitable growth across our diverse technology portfolio, and we expect a gradual recovery of revenues already from the second quarter of this year. In slide number five, you can appreciate some of the KPIs of our Q1 2024 financial performance that Max will comment on later. Now, let's look at our business units. Our Electrode Technologies business faced a soft revenue performance, mainly driven, as already mentioned, by the quarterly production planning of some important chlor-alkali projects, which are expected to accelerate starting from Q2 and cover the gap progressively. The electronic division was still involved in a normalization phase and should start to recover during the second half of the year.

The business profitability was particularly favorable due to the production mix and substantial incidence of aftermarket revenues that, in Q1 2024, jumped to about 50%. Our undisputed leading position and unparalleled performance of our technologies are the basis of a long-lasting and profitable relationship with the key customers in all geographies, making us confident in a recovery of revenue trends and backlog expansion. Again, we confirm that new orders are mainly driven by chlor-alkali projects in Asia and in the US, underpinned by aftermarket service and technological upgrade projects. The latter is a consistent opportunity for growth in the US in the following years.

Finally, as already mentioned, as part of our synergic expansion plan for China and Japan, we have completed the expansion of our Okayama Plant in Japan, which will receive coated electrodes for the Chinese plant in Suzhou to produce electrolyzers for the international and the local markets. This achievement enhances the Asian production setup, which is now ready to serve projects already in our portfolio and the new coming opportunities from the market. The water technology business is facing a positive momentum both in the so-called WTS, water technology systems, which continues to grow, and in the pools line, which is increasing sequentially, even if not yet on a year-on-year basis. The backlog increased by 7.1% in Q1 versus the end of December 2023, paving the way for the business unit growth in the following quarters. Order intake was about EUR 80 million, more than covering the previous project executions.

WTS reported a 4.7% year-over-year revenues increase and a 4% year-over-year new orders growth, of which 57% are related to municipal projects and 43% are related to industrial projects, mainly in the energy industry. A strong megatrend envisaging investment in municipal and industrial sectors focusing on water-stressed areas in Asia, China, and the Middle East underpins the evolution of our water technology system segment. We are well-positioned to size such expansion opportunities due to our comprehensive and diversified portfolio of technologies and the superior performance offered by our solutions. Pools business is offering signals of recovery with a 27% revenue increase versus the previous quarter. This sequential improvement testifies that the market is now normalized, and we expect the segment will start to grow on an annual basis for the next semester based on enhanced backlog and customers' declarations, by the way.

All in all, we are really excited about the results we are achieving in the water technology space, where we can play a leading role in the sustainable and circular management of such a scarce resource. Slide number 8. In this slide, you can appreciate some details of one of the most significant contracts awarded in Q1 2024. De Nora has been selected for a project in Jackson, Mississippi, to restore the reestablished water treatment operations of the OB Curtis Water Treatment Plant following the Pearl River flooding that damaged the plant dedicated to producing drinkable water for the resident population. De Nora will provide its ClorTec technologies to produce about 1,000 kilos of chlorine per day on-site to provide 190,000 cubic meters of potable water to over 180,000 people.

The project, which includes infrastructure upgrades, has been considered a priority by the local authorities and has received federal and state funding. For this project, where efficiency and time are crucial, De Nora has been selected thanks to its cutting-edge technology, ability to guarantee superior quality, and solid execution track record in the U.S. The market trends driving our strategy in water technology business are all confirmed. In particular, the contract testifies and confirms the growing demand for on-site electrochlorination technologies, as these solutions, compared with those based on chlorine gas, are more sustainable, safer, and cost-effective, as they eliminate problems of transportation, storage, and handling of chemicals. Finally, in the last weeks, the EPA in the United States finalized its national drinking water standards for PFAS, these so-called emerging contaminants of water.

The rule sets enforceable maximum contaminant levels at 4 parts per trillion, so PPT, for PFOA and PFOS. This will mandate federally enforced cleanup at sites with a concentration above the limit. Recent estimates suggest that 70 million Americans are drinking water with PFAS levels above this limit. Fortunately, the water industry has had ample time to prepare for this moment and even longer when you can apply the same technology to address the emerging challenges. So De Nora SORB systems have been trusted by thousands of utilities for more than two decades to remove contaminants of concern from water, such as arsenic, iron, manganese. So our dedicated team has optimized its PFAS line over the last two years to support its partners working through the compliance process in the U.S. and other areas addressing these global concerns. With that, let's have an overview of the energy transition business.

In Q1, we realized and delivered 330 MW of technologies dedicated to green hydrogen generation, the highest production level in our history, executing our backlog in line with our production schedule agreed with our customers. You can see the volume sequentially increased in the last five quarters with different product and technology mixes that drove revenues in Q1 2024 in line with the same quarter of 2023. The mix of technologies delivered in Q1 2024 was characterized by lower use of nonmetals in our coating formulations, and that's, of course, part of our technological roadmap to decrease the impact of this volatile and expensive material into our solutions, implying a lower unit price while still guaranteeing the higher production performance of our electrodes and continuing to ensure solid profitability for De Nora.

Let me immediately clarify that the evolution of the EBITDA in the quarter, as expected in our business plan, was driven not only by the product mix but also by an increase in the incidence of research and development costs to 11.2% of revenues versus the 9.1% in Q1 2023, the operating expenses related to the Gigafactory project in Italy, and costs related to the production setup optimization following the capacity scale-up. We have 100 years of experience in the production of coated electrodes. Nevertheless, the green hydrogen industry is a newborn space, and we need to take our time in the learning curve to fine-tune the production setup to guarantee customers the top performance of our technologies.

At the end of March, the backlog was robust at 1.9 GW, following new orders awarded for over 700 MW from our JV nucera to realize the most significant European project of green steel under construction in Sweden. We aim to maintain and develop our leading global position. We are committed to continuing to invest in our technologies, even if that could temporarily reduce business profitability. In research and development, we are investing in developing coating and electrode performances. We are progressing toward realizing our innovative and sustainable Gigafactory in Italy, focusing on readiness for market opportunities. In addition, we are developing performances and tests of our proprietary small-scale Dragonfly electrolyzer through several publicly funded initiatives. In this slide, you can see the main contract in our backlog.

The NEOM project is progressing very well in line with the expectations, while for the H2 Green Steel project in Sweden, we still have not yet received the final production scheduling. In addition, we have other green hydrogen and fuel cell smaller projects in our backlog that are progressing in line with their scheduling. The right side of the slide shows capacity reservations signed by our JV thyssenkrupp nucera in the U.S. and Finland. These projects are accounted for in our pipeline, and we are waiting for them to reach FID and then turn into purchase orders for De Nora to be added in our backlog. Let me spend a few words on the new project involving our proprietary small-scale electrolyzer Dragonfly. In February, we proudly announced the first use of our innovative electrolyzer applied to a hard-to-abate sector in the context of a European Horizon 2020 project.

De Nora is one of the partners in the European project HyTecHeat, along with Snam and Tenova. The project involves the use of hybrid technologies for the production of steel with low CO2 emissions. We will supply the new 1 MW capacity Dragonfly on-site electrolytic hydrogen generation system, contributing to emissions reduction in a traditional hard-to-abate sector. Finally, in April, we announced that De Nora will supply the Dragonfly system for the European project Crete-Aegean Hydrogen Valley to create a hydrogen production hub on the island of Crete for different uses of this molecule. Locally, we will provide the latest generation of our electrolyzer to produce more than 500 tons per year of hydrogen with a total capacity of 4 MW.

Recently launched on the market, this latest generation of containerized electrolyzer represents a cutting-edge asset in the hydrogen value chain, contributing to the decarbonization process of several industrial sectors and playing a key role in mobility. De Nora is at the center of national, European, and global strategic projects, and the Dragonfly is confirmed as a leading product to accelerate the energy transition in specific markets. Our green hydrogen pipeline remains rich, which aligns with the picture already presented in March on the occasion of our full-year 2023 results. About 30% of hot deals are represented by capacity reservations already announced by our JV thyssenkrupp nucera, and the average size of the actively pursued project is higher than 500 MW for each project.

Projects are well differentiated in the different geographies, where North America and Europe account for about 70% of the total, and opportunities are growing in the Middle East, where renewable energy costs are lower and there are fewer permitting process issues. Regarding market development, the total installed capacity of electrolyzer will reach about 120 GW by 2030, an impressive growth compared to 600-700 MW in 2022, with alkaline water electrolysis technology representing between 70%-80% of the total market. We maintain a solid global leading position along with our JV thyssenkrupp nucera and expect our long-term market share to remain robust as the market develops to 2030 and beyond. In the short term, as mentioned in our previous conference call in March, project development has a slower pace than expected due to permitting steps, ongoing regulation definition, and higher inflation, especially in Europe.

New regulations in the U.S. and Europe, including the EU Hydrogen Bank activity committed to delivering about EUR 3 billion, of which EUR 800 million to be granted in 2024, it just happened, can support a green hydrogen market acceleration, of course. There are countries such as Spain, Portugal, Morocco also, and regions like GCC, Northern Europe, and South America, where the overall cost of hydrogen is competitive, and it is there that we expect the majority of the market growth. Along in the U.S., the geography in terms of wide time zone, ample space to build renewable, and the assembled region already active would help the market development. That said, we confirm and are confident in our 2026 targets relying on our pipeline, leading technology, and solid partnership with our JV nucera.

On the other hand, for what concerns 2024, it should be noted that revenue performance is subject to the progress timing of the projects in the backlog and the contracting of those currently in the pipeline, which could experience delays related to the above-mentioned short-term developments in the green hydrogen market. We are committed to enlarging and developing our distinctive and versatile global manufacturing capacity, carrying innovation and automation. As mentioned, our strategy focuses on readiness and flexibility to market trends. In the wake of this strategic approach during last quarters of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, we completed the first phase of our synergic expansion for China and Japan. We more than doubled our electrode production capacity in Suzhou last year and inaugurated the expansion of the Okayama plant in March 2024 in Japan.

These enhanced manufacturing setups will provide electrodes and electrolyzers for several of our businesses, such as chlor-alkali and energy transition, strengthening our leading position in Asia and the rest of the world. In Europe, we are improving the innovative technological setup of our plant in Rodenbach, Germany, while in Italy, we expect to celebrate the groundbreaking of our Gigafactory before summer. Concerning the US, a strategic market for several of our businesses, in March, we were preselected with our JV nucera for a $50 million grant by the US Department of Energy. The funding aims to develop and introduce innovative technologies for alkaline water electrolyzers to reduce the hydrogen production cost and create a groundbreaking solution to facilitate the automation of gigawatt-scale alkaline water electrolysis production lines for clients in the North American market.

In addition, we are also involved with our partners in five R&D projects touching all the hydrogen generation technology that have been awarded by the Department of Energy, a total of $28.4 million on top of the $50 million that I just mentioned. Finally, to wrap up, these three months have been challenging, and we are proud of the business results achieved. Regarding 2024, considering the market trends, the evolution of the backlog, and the results achieved in the first quarter of the year, a gradual recovery in revenues is expected already from the second quarter of the year, thanks to the improvement foreseen in the chlor-alkali and pool segments.

With reference to the energy transition business, as already mentioned, revenue performance is subject to the progress timing of the project in the backlog and the contracting of those currently in the pipeline, which could experience delays related to short-terms as in the market. With that, I leave the floor to Max for the first quarter of 2024 financial results review.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Thank you, Paolo, and hi everybody. First of all, let me underline one more time that actually comparing Q1 2024 with Q1 2023 is a little bit unfair because, in fact, Q1 2023 has been an exceptionally strong quarter. In fact, it has been the last quarter of the pandemic and post-pandemic boom. And this is the reason why Q1 2024, with EUR 189 million revenues, is 12.8% below 2023. But it is not a weak 2024, but rather an exceptional 2023.

In fact, the results of Q1 2024 are in line with our plan. Furthermore, Q2, as of today, is already showing positive growth, and Q2 will be in positive with further acceleration expected in Q3 and Q4 for this year. Having said that and entering into the segment performance, we see that we have basically flat on the energy transition with our EUR 26.6 million revenues. But again, this is in line and according to our manufacturing plan and delivery plan. We have then a water technology system with +5% growth year-on-year, where last year was already positive growth, so it's +5% and already positive 2023. Looking at pools year-on-year, we are still in negative territory, but again, this is because pools in Q1 2023 had exceptionally strong results as a consequence of the pandemic and the post-pandemic.

The real number to look at is the recovering and the acceleration of pools versus the last quarter of 2023. So in fact, Q1 scored +27% versus last quarter of 2023. So this is the real acceleration on pools, and it's expected to continue also in the coming quarters. Another couple of positive numbers we have in electrodes: almost 50% of aftermarket and also good aftermarket performance in WTS with 37%. Coming at electrodes, we have -22% year on year, which is -18% at constant FX rate. And again, Q1 2023 was a record high for electrodes. We had big one-off projects delivered in Q1 2023, like for example, Sadara. And in 2024, on the other side, we had some delay on membrane business, and we had still some weakness in the electronics.

But both membrane and electronics are expected to grow in the second half of this year. Looking at backlog supporting the growth in the coming quarters, we have new orders in Q1 for more than EUR 240 million, which is 1.3 times revenues. These impacted positively on our backlog, which scored a growth of 8%, closing at EUR 661 million, composed by EUR 182 million, record high in energy transition. This is the impact of H2 Green Steel entering into our backlog. Then we have another good performance in water, where we had in Q1 EUR 80 million of new orders, and as a consequence, our backlog did grow of 4% in WTS and 16% in pools. Then we have electrodes. In electrodes, we have a slight decrease, but some recovery also in the backlog is expected in the second half.

Going to our EBITDA, as Paolo already mentioned, we closed at 19% overall EBITDA, which is in line with our plan and slightly above, actually, showing a resilient business model that even in a situation where volumes are lagging in electrodes, the performance in terms of EBITDA is very positive. In fact, looking at the single segments, we have electrodes that closed almost at 27% EBITDA, plus 100 basis points even in a situation of lower volumes. So this is where the resiliency of our business really lies, and this is the extremely solid business model that is the result of 100 years' history of De Nora. Water is also very positive. In water, we increased profitability by 170 basis points with good performance both in WTS and in pools. With regard to energy transition, we have a negative EBITDA, -1.8%.

This was to some extent expected due to 4 main drivers. First of all, we have still a high incidence of R&D cost, 11% of revenues. We have, as we already explained, the impact of the Italian Gigafactory. We have also an initial scale-up cost on the new capacity that generates some inefficiency, and we have also, as fourth driver, a mixed different business mix compared to last year. So this is the reason why of this minus in energy transition. Of course, this is expected to improve in the remaining part of the year. Not much to say in terms of net profit. We closed the quarter with EUR 18 million revenues, which is 9.5% on revenues compared with EUR 25 million of last year. Once again, also this is in line with our plan.

Also in terms of net working capital, I would simply underline that this is in line with our plan, and it is reflecting normal seasonality of our business, which we see in particular in the impact on the net financial position, where we have a positive effect of our EBITDA results. We have EUR -52 million in terms of net working capital, which is absolutely aligned with our normal seasonality. This EUR -52 million in net working capital of 2024 compares with minus 50, so basically the same number in 2023. So normal seasonality, where we have an increase of inventories, we have an increase of due from customers, and a decrease of due to suppliers because we have paid well during Q1. This brings to a final net financial position of EUR 9.4 million, which compares to last year's EUR 10.1 million.

So you could say it's in line with last year, but actually no, because last year we did not have the effect of the buyback program, which is fully embedded in the 9.4. In fact, we purchased De Nora shares for EUR 43 million. So you could add this 9.4 with the 43 to have a comparable view at EUR 52 million versus last year of 10. Having said that, I would leave the word to Chiara for ESG. Thank you.

Chiara Locati
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, De Nora

Thank you, Max. Before leaving the floor to Paolo for the closing remarks, I will give you a quick update on our ESG journey. We are working to execute our sustainability plan for 2030, approved in December by our board of directors with several initiatives and targets to be reached already in 2024. As you may remember, our strategy is based on four pillars.

Regarding the green innovation pillar in Q1, we have reached our first target of embedding circular design guidance in our existing R&D processes. This additional guidance has been integrated since March 2024, and now we are working to enhance our LCA calculation methodology on De Nora's different products and solutions. The LCA calculation is at the base of the product scorecard. We target to set up this product scorecard framework in 2024 and then apply it to all new products by 2025. From the positive impact perspective, in the first quarter of 2024, about 75% of our R&D costs were dedicated to energy transition projects focusing on green hydrogen technologies. Regarding climate action and circular economy, starting March 2024, all the photovoltaic panels installed for a total renewable energy capacity of about 3.1 GWh have been connected and are working.

They are producing renewable energy at our sites in Germany, Italy, and in Brazil. At full speeds not this year, this plan could cover about 25% of the cumulated energy needs of the sites where they are installed. We target to achieve 40% of total energy consumption from renewable energies by 2026, and this year we plan to install an additional about 2.5 gigawatt-hours capacity of solar plants in our Japanese and US sites. This quarter, we achieved two additional environmental certifications in China and India, with a target to cover 100% of our sites by 2025. Concerning people and local communities, we adopted two new crucial policies: one related to supply chain management and the other related to health and safety and environment. In addition, we partnered with Valore D to boost our engagement in diversity, equity, and inclusion through training and networking activities.

We plan to adopt our D&I policy by the end of 2024. Finally, from the governance angle, we linked 20% of the variable remuneration of our CEO and at least 10% of our key executive managers to ESG targets, prioritizing KPIs related to health and safety, renewable energy consumption and utilization, and diversity, equity, and inclusion. We are proud about our ESG journey in which the company and all the De Nora's people are engaged. This is thanks to the type of governance we had adopted that sees all the group functions and sites involved and empowered. I now leave the floor to Paolo for the final remarks. Paolo?

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Thank you, Chiara. Let's just summarize together the final remarks for Q1 2024 results. We continue to build up for growth and value creation despite the for sure demanding scenario.

So the key points that we wanted to share with you are robust profitability with an EBITDA adjusted margin fully in line with the guidance supported by electrode technology business, positive momentum in water technology business, both systems and pools that are sequentially growing, energy transition, 330 MW delivered, the highest production level ever achieved, solid backlog and pipeline to grow, manufacturing capacity expansion focused on readiness and flexibility, Okayama plant expansion just inaugurated, sustainable by D&A, excellent external recognition, and ESG plan execution, and then revenue growth is expected to recover from the second quarter of the year with profitability in line with the business plan. Now we open up for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. This is the [call] conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone with a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Matteo Bonizzoni of Kepler.

Matteo Bonizzoni
Head of Italian Equity Research, Kepler

Thank you. Good afternoon. The first question relates to the recent auction on the green hydrogen in Europe, in which 7 projects were selected for a total capacity which can be estimated at around 1.5 GW. There is another auction also probably by the end of the year scheduled. So the question is, do you have a view on how it could affect your pipeline in Europe and the timing of the final investment decision related to these projects? Just to provide a little bit more color given that you are industry experts, let's say.

The second question is related to the energy transition business because in Q1, I would say that at least compared to my estimates, the EBITDA in the core business was pretty okay. So in electrode technologies and also in those, I would say, in water. But in the other division, so in the energy transition division, both revenues and margin were poorer than expected for reason that you have highlighted, by the way, in the call. So there is no guidance for the full year in general, but I would like to have more color on what are your expectations as regards, I mean, ballpark indication for the revenues or a range if you want or sensitivities if you want for the energy transition, both for revenues and for the EBITDA.

Can you please confirm that the costs for the Gigafactory are excluded from your 18%-19% EBITDA guidance at consolidated level? Because it seems that in Q1, you were including some costs in the adjusted EBITDA. And also, how much these costs were in Q1 and how much they should be in the full year? And then last question, Q2. You said growth. Year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter? Thanks.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Okay. I'll answer the first, and the other ones I'll leave it to Max. Yes, the auction has been very well received, meaning that 7 projects have been won. I think there were 130 applicants. The second wave, which is going to be much higher to achieve from EUR 700+ million to EUR 3 billion, is going to happen soon. So it's a very positive sign.

I can simply confirm that some of those projects are in our pipeline, meaning that, of course, we were involved, especially our JV was involved in those projects early stage. Of course, there are no projects that are going to happen tomorrow, but they have, of course, a journey to make to get to the final stage. But yeah, yeah, that's a very positive sign together with many others happening in every country of Europe, like Germany with the decarbonization of the steel and other initiatives that are really pushing into the direction of decarbonization on one side, but also on the utilization of green hydrogen as a molecule to implement the decarbonization. Last but not least, the G7.

You have been seen also the result of the G7 where they've been, let's say, progressing very well, I would say much better than the COP 28 in Dubai, where at least they have decided that the coal has to be phased out from power generation progressively, that the renewable electricity has to be at least tripled, between triple and 6 times within 2030. So these are all enablers of the decarbonization and the progressive introduction of green hydrogen into the market.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Okay. For ETR, the situation in terms of EBITDA is, first of all, excluding the Gigafactory. So when we gave 18%-19%, it was excluding Gigafactory. The data that you see in Q1, the 19%, which is in the high range, instead is including the Gigafactory.

In terms of revenues for the remaining part of the year in energy transition, at the moment, the production plan and the delivery plan is confirmed if projects will not have delay in the coming months. And in terms of EBITDA, we expect still a high incidence of R&D. There is the impact of Gigafactory, and there are still some scale-up costs for the capacity expansions, and these will most likely bring the EBITDA in the single-digit territory, which is aligned to our plan. With regards to Q2, growth is year-on-year. So in this term, it's the concept of accelerator that we explained during the presentation of the plan. It's an accelerated growth year-on-year, quarter by quarter in 2024. So you've seen the negative year-on-year for Q1. Q2 is in positive. Q3 and Q4 positive with further acceleration.

Matteo Bonizzoni
Head of Italian Equity Research, Kepler

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Isacco Brambilla, Mediobanca.

Isacco Brambilla
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Hi. Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three. The first two are on electrode technologies. So first, can you help us reconcile your comments on acceleration from the second quarter with backlog figure for electrode technologies again down at the end of the first quarter compared to the end of 2023? Second question on electrode technologies is on margins. Could you give us a bit more color on the drivers of the strong performance in margins even in spite of weak volumes? And maybe provide an update on the potential pressure you mentioned during March conference call from Chinese competitors, if I'm not wrong. Last question is more a kind of high-level one. We have recently seen announcements of gigawatt-scale projects by some of your peers in energy transition.

Are you observing any change in attitude of customers in your discussions that may suggest an acceleration in order collection in this segment?

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Max, you answer the first two and I answer the last one, please.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Sure. Sure. Sure. Okay. First of all, acceleration in energy sorry, in electrodes is year-on-year. So it embeds the fact that, relatively speaking, Q2 2023 was not as strong as it was Q1, and we are maintaining and slightly accelerating quarter-on-quarter in 2024. So the combined effect is a real acceleration year-on-year. And it's already embedded, of course, in our backlog and in our projects that are under execution. With regard to the margin, it's driven by positive price effect. In fact, during Q1, we had a negative impact in terms of volume but a positive impact in terms of price and margin.

So in this moment, we can confirm that we are still a strong power price company and leading position in electrodes, and therefore, we command price premium and increase in our performance.

Chiara Locati
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, De Nora

Competition in China.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Competition in China is not sorry. If the point was competition in China, in this moment, competition in China is not penalizing our performance. So far, so good.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

The third point about announcement of our peers, Isacco, if you refer to the 3 GW MOU that has been announced by Plug Power in Australia, is that what you mean mainly?

Isacco Brambilla
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, this one. And also Nel, if I'm not wrong.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But as you can notice by yourself, these are no projects.

These are MOUs, LOIs that either will never happen, and there's a lot of advertisement by both parties to say that, or in case they enter into a more serious phase, it will require quite a number of years. So we are not that kind of players, nor is nucera, to announce MOUs that will bring nothing short term. So what nucera and what we do is either we announce a project that we signed or we announce a capacity reservation that has been signed, or an award, like we announced in Australia recently with nucera, or an award of the project that now is entering into a more detailed kind of activities to get to the final contract. So unfortunately, I would say this is not a sign of huge transformation happening nowadays.

Australia has announced something like 20 GW of projects, but all of them are quite in the early stage, apart from the one that we have been awarded recently in Tasmania.

Isacco Brambilla
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Very clear. Many thanks.

Operator

The next question is from Chris Leonard with UBS.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Hi, guys. Hopefully, you can hear me. I am Chris Leonard from UBS.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Hi, Chris.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Hey, guys. Maybe three quick questions if I can. So the first one, looking at electrode and water and the good margin in Q1, obviously, you've just said some of that was due to pricing power that you managed to command. But looking at the full year 2024, given that electronics should be returning in the second half and equally pools for water should also be rebounding from Q2 onwards, year-on-year, what type of levels should we be anticipating for the margin for both divisions on electrode and water?

Because Q1 was incredibly strong versus our estimates, so I'm just trying to get a gauge for where we might land at full year, given you don't give guidance at the moment. Second question is just on the buyback. Obviously, that looks like it's completed. You have an upsize option there. I think that maybe expires in June, perhaps. I just wanted to get clarity if you're going to look to continue that, given that the price of the shares at the moment are lower than the average price you executed on the first portion of the buyback of EUR 43 million. And the last question, the potential delays you spoke to for green hydrogen. I'm just trying to think which projects might be at risk there. You commented that the NEOM project in Saudi Arabia was expecting to have a steady drumbeat of orders, and that was going well.

So would the potential delays maybe relate to H2 Green Steel or potentially U.S. projects that aren't yet within the backlog? Just trying to get some color on where you see risk in the green hydrogen revenue for the year.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

All right. All right. All right. So, Max, you take the first two, and I take the last one.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Fine. Yeah. No, with regards to evolution of margin in electrodes with the recovery in electronics and the growth in pools in the second part of the year, the outlook is positive. In electrodes, we will maintain high and stable marginality. And in pools, we will have a growing marginality into the segment itself and for a mix effect in the overall water division.

In terms of buyback, we have decided in this moment not to exercise the option for the second tranche of the buyback program, but our shareholder assembly has confirmed the possibility to activate another buyback program at discretion of the board.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

[crosstalk] Okay. Yeah, yeah. I can wait.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Could I just follow up on the margin average?

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Yeah. Sure, sure, sure. Go ahead.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Yeah. So you're saying maintaining high and stable. For the electrode division, we've just seen 27%. So are we anticipating a similar margin level maybe to 2023, which was about 25% for the electrode division? Would that be your kind of assessment of where we're landing for the full year at this point, given electrolyzers is coming back?

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Yes, yes. It's going to remain high and slightly better than our plan.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Okay. Great. Thanks. The same is true for water as a whole division, given it's at 16.5% margin, and last year, water was about 14%.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Yep. Correct. Okay.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Thank you.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Okay. Now, going to the projects in execution and the possible delays. NEOM, you have also seen their spontaneous announcement. NEOM is running very well. We are at full speed there. Every day, we produce, and then batch by batch, we deliver. So NEOM is not in discussion, absolutely, right now in terms of production scheduling. H2 Green Steel, there is a project finalized, finished in terms of contract and already part of our backlog. We still have to receive the final production scheduling. So that means that we still have to trigger exactly in which week of the year we are allowed to start producing.

That's what could generate potential delays if this so-called notice to proceed doesn't arrive soon, which is, by the way, expected any day now. Then we're talking only about large projects. There is the Neste Finland that has been finalized, so it will enter our production scheduling, of course, not for this year and maybe not even for the next year, considering the timeline of this greenfield project. And then there is the larger project in the U.S., which is expected, again, any day for capacity reservation to move into final contract, which is, of course, expected to trigger somehow in 2025 in terms of production scheduling.

So you can imagine that De Nora, being part of a very specific and complex supply chain process, for the large projects, we are, of course, very much depending on the production scheduling on each of these jobs, overlapping and integrating with each other to make the full fiscal year in the plan. So there is the level of potential little changes that we might expect if these projects are coming to a certain delay. On the other hand, we don't have to forget that there's also a reverse side of the same coin, which is, for De Nora, a repeat production, profitable business with a lower level of risk. And at the same time, of course, it will trigger an incredible after-sales and maintenance process once the install base is being created.

But in this specific moment, we have to count on the scheduling that our customers are transferring to us based on execution of these jobs.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

That's really clear. Thank you for the answer.

Operator

The next question is from Constantin Hesse with Jefferies.

Constantin Hesse
SVP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have a couple left only. Just a quick one on the share buyback program. If perhaps you could share with us what kind of needs to happen for you to potentially consider doing the second tranche. Is there any kind of performance within the electrodes business or even the water business that you would want to see before potentially considering it again, or is it more of an issue around CapEx? And the second question is, what gives you the confidence that you're going to see a recovery in electronics in the second half?

If we look at some of the data, especially around consumer electronics, it's actually pretty underwhelming in terms of the recovery. So just wondering what kind of confidence levels you have around the recovery for the second half there. Thanks.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Okay. You take the first. I take the second, Max.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Okay. Okay. With regards to the buyback, now there is no specific intention to do it. You know that as for the first tranche, the purpose was for potential M&A and for internal rewarding systems. We believe that we have more than needed, particularly for the second. If and in case some potential M&A could materialize, maybe we'll decide to restart the project. I think it's good to have the option. For the time being, we don't foresee to use it in the short period, in the foreseeable future.

Constantin Hesse
SVP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Thank you.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Okay. Regarding electronics, well, in 2023, electronics has been leaving something not so different from the pool business, even though it's a totally different space and segment, right? So there's been a destocking process taking place that, together with some geopolitical issues and some reshoring of some activities from Asia to other countries, for sure has created some instability in the market. What we can say today, based on the demand of our customers and our continuous relationship with them, is that the PCB market, in particular, because of artificial intelligence, because of a number of initiatives that are picking up in the market, is expected to pick up again, to grow in demand. And that's what we have somehow reflected in our plan for the second part of the year.

Constantin Hesse
SVP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Thank you very much.

Operator

Miss Locati, gentlemen, there are no more questions registered this time. Sorry. We have just another follow-up from Chris Leonard, UBS.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Hey, guys. Just following up on electronics. From memory, the replacement cycle for you guys is about two years on the electrodes you install in the market. I'm just wondering if the growth you saw in 2020 until 2022, if that's going to come in as well for replacement following this distocking wave or if we need to wait longer.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Yeah. Absolutely. No, no. Absolutely. On copper foil, for lithium batteries, for example, that's absolutely part of our expectations. Yes. You said it very correctly.

Chris Leonard
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Okay. Thanks. Thanks.

Operator

There are no more questions registered this time.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

All right.

Chiara Locati
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, De Nora

So thank you very much to all.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Thank you.

Chiara Locati
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, De Nora

And we are looking for any kind of information and question at IR department if you need.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Thanks, everyone. All the best, everyone. Bye-bye.

Massimiliano Moi
CFO, De Nora

Bye-bye.

Paolo Dellachà
CEO, De Nora

Bye-bye.

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