Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the ENAV full year 2022 results conference call and webcast. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Vittorio De Domenico, head of investor relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Paolo. Good afternoon also from our side, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to ENAV 2022 results call. Here with me there are the ENAV CEO, sorry, Mr. Paolo Simioni, and the CFO, Mr. Luca Colman. They will be running through the formal presentation, after that, we'll be happy to answer to your questions. With this, I leave the floor to Paolo.
Thank you, Vittorio. First of all, I want to apologize for the lowering of my voice, I try to do my best. Welcome to ENAV full year 2022 results call. 2022 has been the year of the rebirth for ENAV, despite the tailwind of COVID-19 pandemic impacting the first quarter of the year, the Russian-Ukraine conflict started in February 2022, and the rising of inflation and interest rates in the financial market. We were back to normal, to pre-pandemic condition, with a traffic volume almost in line with those recorded in 2019 and with standard pre-pandemic seasonality. Standard regulation mechanism reinstated from the beginning of 2022. The approval in April of the Italian performance plan valid up to the end of 2024.
With all these elements in place, I'm glad to confirm that ENAV remained the fourth largest ANSP amongst member states subject to EU performance scheme and one of the best performers in terms of quality and safety of service, which means that ENAV is entitled to receive the performance bonus. Moving forward to the non-regulated business, we recorded a double-digit growth year-on-year of non-regulated revenue. Let me provide you now with an update of the implementation of our 2022, 2024 business plan, which is part of our long-term future strategic vision with a 10 years horizon. During the year, we have inaugurated the first Remote Digital Tower in Linyi Airport, which is fully operative since June 2022.
After that, we integrated the Naples approach service in the Rome Area Control Center in May, implemented also in December the Arrival Management System, a new technological operative platform to improve arrival sequences in the airport of Roma Fiumicino. Also implemented the Tactical Control Tool Automatic System, which is another operative platform for prediction of potential conflicts in aircraft trajectories in the Milan Area Control Center. Finally started operate to the Technical Operation Center in Roma Ciampino for the centralized remote supervision of the maintenance of our operative assets. On ESG side, we updated our sustainability plan, extending in the year 2024, in order to align its duration to the business plan time-timeline.
We achieved the carbon neutrality in 2022 throughout the reduction of Scope 1 and 2 emission by approximately 80% versus 2019 and the offset of remaining emissions using carbon credits. We renewed, together with the union, the economical part of the labor contract for all employees. For what concern the financial, we reported a double-digit revenue and EBITDA increase of 12.9% and 22.4% respectively, in line with our guidance and currently with the strong recovery of traffic recorded in the year. We recorded a net profit growth of 33.9% and keep our strong balance sheet, reducing at the same time gross and net debt.
Based on the financial results of the period, the board of director has resolved to propose to the annual general meeting to distribute in October 2023 dividends for a total amount of EUR 106.4 million, equivalent to EUR 0.19767 per share. Moving to slide two, let's focus on 2022 growth results. We posted a strong performance driven by a traffic volume recovery in the entire period and particularly through the summer season, which prolonged itself till October. We noted that in August and October, our traffic volume exceeded the pre-pandemic levels by 0.8% and 2.6%, respectively.
In 2022, our route and terminal traffic increased year-on-year by 65.3% and 63.6%, reaching 95.2% and 88.6% over 2019. Net revenue was EUR 944.3 million, increasing 12.9% year-on-year, in line with the provided guidance. Driven by solid growth, not only in the operating core business, but also in non-regulated segment, which grew 21% year-on-year above the provided guidance, reaching approximately EUR 40 million.
EBITDA was EUR 272.2 million, up 22.4% year-on-year, in line with the provided guidance, despite the expected rise in costs, mainly coming from the intense air traffic growth, especially during the summer season, the renewed of labor contracts signed with the unions in the Q4 of the year and the group's energy ex-expenses, mainly due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict and the inflation rise. EBITDA margin stood at 28.8%, which means 2.2 percentage points higher than 2021. We recorded EUR 104.5 million of net profit, highly up 34% compared to the previous year.
CapEx for EUR 97.8 million and net financial debt at EUR 407.8 million, decreasing versus the EUR 483.5 million registered at the end of 2021. Also, the ratio between the net debt and the EBITDA decreased to 1.5x from the 2.17x at the end of 2021. Cash at the end of the year was EUR 268 million, which remains more than adequate to face all group's needs. On the next slide, you can find the 2022 en-route traffic volume related to the four largest European countries. Italy confirmed to be the fourth largest country by en-route service unit behind Spain, Germany and France.
With regards to traffic volume, Italy has shown at a 65.3% year-on-year traffic recovery, which has been in line with the year-on-year average growth considering all countries adhering to EUROCONTROL. In terms of operational performance, ENAV's average minutes of en-route delayed flights due to reasons attributable to ATM was only 0.07 minutes and it's still under review for further decrease due to some delays erroneously assigned to Italy.
The review process with EUROCONTROL is expected to close in the coming months. Despite that, the achieved performance compared with the target set by the regulator enables ENAV to receive the economic bonus for the year 2022 and foreseen by the bonus-malus mechanism defined by the regulator. This is a notable result considering the air traffic speed of recovery in the year, as well as the volume managed during the summer season, and has been achieved thanks to the ability of all our staff in providing ATC services efficiently and with the highest safety standard. With regard to sustainability, I'm proud to show you our 2022 achievements.
We have extended our sustainability plan to the year 2024 in order to align its duration to the business plan time frame and define new challenging target for the 2024, such as the approach integration in additional airports, the replacement of the current service car with electric, hybrid and plug-in vehicles up until 80% of total, and the disposal of the non-directional beacon at 90% in 2024. Through the development of our new platform for sustainable supply chain management, we evaluated more than 75% of our core suppliers. At the same time, we established a new target for maintaining the ISO 37001 anti-bribery certification in 2023.
We completed the integration of our approach system into the area control centers. At the same time, we implemented the new Arrival Management System software in Rome's Fiumicino Airport, allowing the airline to further reduce their emissions. ENAV has continued to push on the internal communication plan and sustainability, setting up a new corporate structure dedicated to the promotion of sustainability themes. At the same time, we have launched several initiatives aimed at bringing women into the ATC professions. On the environmental front, I'm proud to announce that ENAV achieved carbon neutrality in 2022 through the reduction of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by approximately 80% versus 2019, and the offset of remaining emission using carbon credits.
This doesn't stop us in fighting the climate change, having helped airlines with our Free Route technology to reduce carbon emissions for over 200,000,000 kg in the year. I'm also happy to share with you that ENAV in 2022 obtained two solicited ESG ratings. The first one, S&P Global, which evaluated ENAV with a score of 51 on a 0 to 100 range. The second one, CDP, formerly Carbon Disclosure Project, which valued ENAV with a C category, scoring in a range from F to A, being A the top notch. With this, I leave the floor to Luca for the detailed view of the results.
Thank you, Paolo, and good afternoon to all of you on the call. Moving to slide five, we can see the strong en-route traffic performance, which showed a 65.3% year-on-year growth in term of service units, coupled with the standard quarterly seasonality. Within en-route, international traffic increased the most, 89.1% year-on-year. Overflight was up 67.4% and national grew 36.4%. Overflight confirms to be the most important component with the en-route mix accounting for 43% of the total traffic, while the international component accounts for 37% and national for 20%. Full year 2022 en-route service unit were 95.2% of those recorded in the same period of 2019, following a very strong traffic recovery and a prolonged summer season.
Q4 2022 traffic volume was at 0.6% above the last quarter of 2019, confirming the year-on-year improving quarterly trend. Let's take a look now at the terminal traffic on slide six. service units increased 63.6% year-on-year, showing strong performance in all three zones and the return of a standard quarterly seasonality. Looking at the terminal traffic by destination, the international component goes up by 86.2%, while the domestic by 38.2%. Full year 2022 terminal traffic reached 88.6% of 2019 volumes, confirming also for terminal the strong recovery already seen in en-route. These represent the weighted average of the three charging zones that showed different results.
Terminal one service unit reached 67.9% of 2019, showing the lowest recovery due to the reduced activities performed by the Italian national carrier. Terminal zone two reached 89.7% of 2019 service units, while terminal zone three was almost in line with the pre-COVID level, reporting 98.6% recovery. The full year described traffic resumption for total terminal is even stronger if we look at the Q4 2022, which reached 91.2% of the last quarter of 2019. Turning to slide eight, we can see the 2022 total group revenue reached EUR 944.3 million, growing 12.9% year-on-year, in line with the provided guidance.
As noted in the previous quarter, there is a shift in the relative weight of the various items within the total revenue when we do the usual year-on-year comparison. The main contribution 2022 growth comes from operative revenue cashed in from airlines and no more from the balance credit as occurred in 2021, which was still heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. As you can see from the first graph, air route, sorry. Air route revenue doubled year-on-year and terminal revenue grew 61.7%, while total balance decreased from a positive EUR 294.4 million in 2021 to negative EUR 14.8 million in 2022. In order to better understand what is included in this total balance, we need to distinguish between the balance related to the previous year reversal and the balance generated in the year 2022.
Balance reversal related to previous years has been positive for approximately EUR 12 million. Balance generated in 2022 was negative for approximately EUR 27 million and is the sum of five main items. The first one is a negative balance for approximately EUR 59 million due to the actual traffic managed that was meaningfully higher than the one included in the performance plan to be given back to the line in 2024. Number two, we have a negative balance for approximately EUR 12 million related to the D&A and the EU grants to be given also these back to the lines, particularly for what concern D&A that showed a lower actual amount versus the corresponding amount included in the performance plan.
Number three, a positive balance, for approximately EUR 35 million driven by 2022 inflation that was materially higher at 8.7% than the 1.8% forecast % forecasted in the performance plan. Number four, a positive balance for approximately EUR 3 million coming from EUROCONTROL contract adjustment. Number five, a positive balance for approximately EUR 6 million related to the chief bonus on performance. Let now take a look to the not regulated business, which, as shown in second graph, grew 21% above the provided guidance and thanks to all activities performed above. Turning page, we can see the costs we incurred in 2022 in comparison with the previous year. In 2022, total operating costs amounted to EUR 672.1 million and increased at 9.4% year-on-year, in line with our expectation.
Both fixed and variable component of the personnel grew, coupled with the social security contribution as well as external OpEx, which also showed a rise. For what concerned personnel costs, those went up by 9% year-on-year. Variable remuneration grew EUR 23.1 million year-on-year, mainly due to overtime and controllers in the year related to the increased number of flights managed, especially during the summer season, with a related increase also in Social Security contributions. As you can see from the graph, fixed remuneration increased as well by EUR 20.9 million year-on-year, mainly because of this renewal of the economical part of the labor contract, which expired at the end of 2019. It is worth noting that with this renewal we have recovered inflation for the last three years, 2020, 2021 and 2022, all groups employees.
For what concern external OpEx, this also increased EUR 13 million year-on-year, primarily due to cost of energy, which grew approximately EUR 10 million out of the aforementioned EUR 13 million, it was mainly driven by the Russian and Crimean conflict and inflation rise. The cost bonded in the not regulated business for approximately EUR 2 million. In regard to inflation, let me remind you that ENAV is fully covered by its protective regulation. The delta between the actual inflation and the one included in the performance plan generated a EUR 35 million total credit in 2022 that will be cashed in in 2024 throughout the use of balance mechanism. Let's turn now to slide number 10 in order to comment EBITDA and the movements below it.
EBITDA showed a strong 22.4% growth year-on-year, with margin at the 28.8%, which means 2.2 percentage points better than the previous year. This performance gains from the top line rise, which easily absorbed the cost increase in the period, as shown in the previous slide. D&A decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, mainly because of the reduced capital expenditure in the recent past. As mentioned in the previous results call, this item is expected to slightly and slowly increase in the coming years as the new ATM platform currently under development will become operational. Moving to the provisions and write down, those increased EUR 2.6 million year-on-year, mainly to the prevention write down of the entire credit related to Russian activities, coupled with the one related to some minor airlines.
What concerned net financial expenses, those amounted to EUR 0.5 million in 2022, mainly due to increased interest rate on debt, which resulted in expenses in the year for a total of EUR 10.2 million, almost completely offset by the EUR 9.6 million of positive contribution from the balance actualization mechanism. With regards to income taxes, we can see an EUR 18.5 million increase year-over-year, mainly due to the higher taxable income in the year compared with 2021, together with lower deferred taxes. As a result of these movements in the PNL, we recorded EUR 104.5 million net profit, corresponding to 33.9% increase year-over-year. In the next slide, we summarize ENAV's liquidity and financial position, which, as you can see, remains very strong.
We closed the year with EUR 268 million cash and an additional undrawn credit alliance for EUR 294 million, after which EUR 220 million are committed. Net financial debt stood at EUR 408 million, decreasing EUR 76 million compared with a net debt of EUR 484 million as of the end of 2021. This reduction is mainly driven by the cash incoming from a high level of traffic managed in 2022. In more detail, the EUR 76 million of net debt reduction is mainly attributable to net cash in from operations for approximately EUR 237 million, cash outflows for approximately EUR 70 million related to the capital investment, a negative change for approximately EUR 33 million in non-current commercial debt.
This is mainly related to gross negative balance to be returned to airlines and the cash outflow for dividend payment. Net debt on EBITDA stood at 1.5x compared with 2.17x reached at the end of 2021. Worth noting that yesterday evening, ENAV has finalized the refinancing of the term loan for EUR 100 million signed in 2021, and the term loan issued in 2022, also for EUR 180 million, both expire in July 2023, with a three year span of term loan to be repaid in full upon maturity.
As part of the same transaction and with the same bank, ENAV signed also new commitment credit lines, revolving credit facility, for a total of EUR 150 million that will replace those expired and available to the company. Let me come in now the last slide, the number 13, before leaving the floor again to Paolo. Here we can see our shareholders remuneration trend and 2022 dividend proposal. I'm glad to announce that as according for regulation and traffic, also shareholders remuneration is back to normal.
The board of directors resolved to propose to the annual general meeting to distribute a dividend in relation to the financial year 2022 for a total amount of EUR 106.5 million, equivalent to, as Paolo said before, EUR 0.1967 per share. This comes from the application of our dividend policy in the measure of 80% of the free cash flow as per the policy itself. Record date will be October 24 2023, with payment October 25 2023, as done in 2022 at the given standard seasonality in our cash flow. With that, I hand the call back to Paolo, who will close the presentation with our 2023 outlook and key takeaways.
Thank you, Luca. With regard to our 2023 outlook, we expect our route traffic to be above pre-COVID levels, reaching 10.3 million service units. Total revenue are expected to grow low single-digit year-over-year, with non-regulated revenue to increase high single-digit. EBITDA is expected to grow low to mid single-digit year-over-year. CapEx is expected to rise at roughly EUR 100 million. Before opening the floor to your question, let me provide you few takeaways. In 2022, traffic recovered almost to pre-pandemic levels and is expected to grow further in the coming year, signing a return to normality.
Our personnel was able to manage this increase better than our peers, confirming ENAV as one of the best performer in terms of safety and quality of service. The group posted a strong economical and financial result in both the core business and in the non-regulated segment. Those results allowed the board of directors to resolve to propose at the annual general meeting the distribution of EUR 106.4 million of dividend, equivalent to EUR 0.1967 per share. 2022 was also characterized by three relevant milestones.
First of all, the approval of the Italian Performance Plan occurred in April, after the approval of the 2022, 2024 business plan, which is part of the group's long term strategic vision up to the year 2031, and the carbon neutrality reached by ENAV, which testifies our ESG commitment. In conclusion, the full year 2022 strong results and events confirm a back to normal situation, it paved the way for additional growth in 2023 and subsequent years. With that, we are now ready to answer your questions.
This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. That's star and one. We will pause for a moment as questioners join the queue. The first question is from Ivar Billfalk- Kelly with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my question. With the balance sheet now in a very strong position relative to where it was, what is the near term capital allocation priority? Are there any M&A transactions that could be credibly completed in the near term or might we expect higher shareholder remuneration in the absence of M&A? Secondly, revenues and EBITDA were modestly lower than the targets you presented at the time of those 3Q results. Given it was only presented relatively recently, and you had fairly good visibility on volumes.
Sorry, we hear your line very badly. We have serious difficulty in understanding your question. Could you try to repeat, please? Sorry.
Yeah. Sorry. That's okay. Is that any better now? Can you...
Yes, now it's a bit better. Thank you.
Perfect. I'll start from the beginning again. Sorry about that. With the balance sheet now in a very strong position compared to where it was before, what is the near term capital allocation priority? Are there any M&A transactions that you could credibly do in the near term, or could we expect higher shareholder remuneration? Secondly, revenue and EBITDA were modestly lower than the targets you presented at the time of those 3Q results. Given that was only presented relatively recently and you had good visibility on volumes, what was it that drove the lower than expected result? Maybe finally, it's probably a little bit early to be asking this, but in the context of the high and rising interest rates, do you have a sense of how current yield could impact your WACC and what sort of tailwind that might provide for tires beyond 2024? Thank you.
Okay. For what concern the first one, the capital allocation, yeah, we confirm what our strategy at the moment is to follow three main, I would say points. The first one, to reset a little bit our capital structure after two years where we have burned a lot of cash. Part of that money that we will cash in, also in the next year will be used to... just a small part of this money to reset a little bit our capital, our capital structure. The second leg is to restart to look at some M&A, very focused M&A operation, see if there will be something good that makes sense for our business.
For our strategy, we will look at now that we are back to normal also in this area. The third leg is remuneration to our shareholder. As I said, our dividend policy has the flexibility to give, to increase the, to manage the level of dividend given to our shareholders. In the next year, in accordance with our board of director and the CEO, we will, I mean. We will use this flexibility also to manage the amount of money to give it to the dividend to our shareholders.
Ivan, just to be sure we understood your second question, it was regard to the WACC and the possible, let's say, implication on these in the next regulatory period. Am I right?
Sorry, I don't know if you heard me, but yes, exactly right.
Yes, I said your second question was in with regards to the WACC and eventually return, let's say on lab for the next regulatory period. Did we understand?
Yeah.
Correctly your question?
Exactly right.
Okay. As you can imagine, we are starting now to think about the new, the new regulatory period. We will start to give some figures to the regulatory body by the end of May, but it will be just the first draft for discussion. the European Commission will use it for the first, you know, thinking for what could be the target that we give to other European countries in term of performance. Say that, this means that it's a little bit early to talk about this point because, as you can imagine, the performance plan will be...
We will start to think about and to write down by the end of this year, the beginning of the next year. Say that we will look at also what will be the approach of the European Commission to this point, so our regulator, first of all, and second on what are the real cost of capital on our sector looking at the, you know, the rise of the interest rate. So we will, I mean, we are thinking about strategies that could in some way align our WACC to these parameters. We still, at this moment, we have to wait what will be the assumption and the idea of the European Commission.
Perfect. Thank you. In terms of the second question regarding why revenues and EBITA came in a little bit lower than expected at the time of the 3-quarter results, what were the main drivers for that?
Sorry, Ivan. What you meant was a little bit lower in Q4 than Q3?
At the time of the three-quarter results, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, you suggested that you have revenue growth of 15% and EBITA growth of 25%, and we came in a little bit lower than that. Just given it was presented so recently, I'm just trying to figure out what the delta was between your expectation then and reality now.
Let's say that basically the few missing EUR million are related to the bonus on performance. As Luca Colman said, some minutes of delay has been assigned to Italy. We do not agree. There is a process of review. At the end of this process, we could have, let's say, a few EUR million benefit more. As of now, we have closed the account, which was being certified and officially, let's say, declared by the regulator. Therefore, we prudentially included the approximately EUR 6 million that Luca Colman mentioned previously. That's the reason for the one percentage point that you can count.
That's perfect. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Aleksandra Arsova with Equita. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question, sir. Some follow-up from the previous questions. Just to recap, what was the bonus actually recorded this year? It was EUR 6 million less than EUR 12 million expected, just to check. Then the second one is on cost evolution. With respect to the EUR 672 million we have this year in total cost, what evolution do you expect for 2023, and what are the assumptions behind it? The very last one, given you recently refinanced your debt, which is the cost of debt we should expect for 2023 and onward, the average cost of debt, vis-à-vis the one-point-something you had last year? Thank you.
For what concerned the bonus, as Vittorio said, the point is, some delays are being attributed to Italy, for let me say, for reason related to the country next to us that in some way had some restriction, and this is reflected with the flight that it was flying through our country versus to this country that had some decline. We are talking with EUROCONTROL actually, Eurocontrol recognized that we actually we are right because it's not our fault if there are these delays on, and so they should be not attributed to Italy. Now a reviewing process is going on.
We prefer to use the standard, I mean, this feature, value given by EUROCONTROL that for now is 0.07 versus 0.11, 0.11, sorry, that is the target given. This has actually allowed us to reach, I would say more or less, half of EUR 12 million that you said, Aleksandra. I'll say that after the review that will come the next month, I don't know how much it will take EUROCONTROL to come up with the final data.
We will adjust the amount of money we will recover in 2023. It's not really a problem, as Vittorio said, we want to be in some way credential on this as we actually give not the final value. Say that the cost evolution, you should keep at least in 2% increase also because it is something that was agreed with personal and the renewal as At least inflation that we should recognize, the planned inflation that we are recognizing for 2023. Keep this as a general guidance for cost evolution. For what concern, say the last one, we'll stop at that, for 2023, I said we have renewal some alliance, some loans.
These are variable ones, so they would be, they also will depend also on the cost, will depend on the, you know, the interest rate that will remove the next year. In the next, sorry, this next month. More or less, if you keep the value that we have in 2022 and rise, let me see, couple million maybe, EUR 2 million-EUR 3 million, so you maybe add the. At the moment, the forecast that we are using at the moment.
Sorry to interrupt. This potential EUR 6 million additional from the bonus, if EUROCONTROL agree to give them to you, will be on top of your current guidance on 2023 on EBITDA, right?
If you reach the maximum target, yes. It depends on, you know, if 100% of this delay would be recognized to Italy. I mean, not the delay will be recognized to Italy other than a different percentage. It could be, yes, five, four, six , depending on the evolution. If the answer is yes, this will be on the top on the next, I would say, balance that will ask in 2023.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from John Campbell with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I just one or two on RP4. Basically, does ENAV generally expect that sort of key features of that regulation, such as traffic risk protection and inflation protection, are likely to be carried over into the next regulatory periods? I saw you provide a little bit of a timeline, but when could we expect sort of public documents to be released by the European Commission? I had a second question related to the labor agreement. I understand that covers inflation for 2020 to 2022. How long does this agreement last, and how is it going to deal with inflation, inevitably in 2023 and beyond? Perhaps my last question is on the CapEx.
As far as I understand, you target EUR 350 million across 2022 to 2024. So far, you've done about EUR 200 million, so presumably or you should say you're planning to do EUR 200 million by the end of 2023. Presumably we're going to see an acceleration in 2024, if you commit to that general EUR 350 million target. Thanks.
Okay. For concern, the new regulation that we could expect in for RP3, RP4, sorry. In general term, I guess there is not enough time to make big change to the actual regulation. At the moment, what we foresee to have confirmed all the main, let me say, point of our regulation in term of traffic risk sharing mechanism, inflation protection, so balance mechanism. The main mechanism will be not. We don't expect that there will be change that for what concern the regulation in general term. This is will be the first point that the commission will the regulator will analyze and in some way confirm within we expect this year, because this is first step.
After that, they will fix, they will define and will negotiate, they will negotiate with the state the target, the performance target in term of cost efficiency and the quality of service. The qual- the economic and operative targets. After that, we will prepare the state, we prepare the performance plan to discuss and to be approved by European Commission as European regulator within the national authority that is, that, you know, for Italy is ENAC with a C at end. Say that the timeline would be by the end of this year, we expect to have the all confirm and define the regulatory framework, so the regulation.
Right after that, let me say, together with that, they will start the first negotiation, the third negotiation for thinking of the European Commission with the state about the target, the European common target, cost efficiency, equality. Let me say, by March, April 2024 at the most, starting with the performance plan to give to the commission within this, the summer break, so June, July. three, four months of analysis, then short discussion, and if you think it will be fine set, defined, we can close next year with the performance plan approved, and by the first January 2025 with the new tariff applied. That is the, you know, the general idea of timeline that we expect. The labor contract is three years labor contract, so we expect to have 2023, 2024 and 2025.
Sorry, 2023, 2024, 2025, in some way covered. At the least we were concerned the inflation. Yeah, right. Sorry. The other point is what we have recognized for the labor agreement is a few percent for the each year for the next three years. That's what is planned. What concern CapEx, yes, you're right. Your analysis is right. We are slowing a little bit down our CapEx just for two main reasons, but not so much actually. The main reason are related to the problem for purchasing. You know that there is some general problem to get the materials and goods.
We are a little bit slowing our process. The second point, we are analyzing, we are understanding how to better improve, develop our implement the new Cybersecurity [below] that we have in Italy, that in some way ask us to manage in our contract these points. Something related to cyber security and the test that we have to do to the items that we buy, the goods that we buy, this has to be in some way implemented in our process. We are together with the national authority, talking with them and understanding what we, as other company in Italy, understanding how to better manage these issues.
This is another item that will, in some way, is slowing a little bit down our process. In some way, we think that, in that, sorry. In final, we think that we may, in some way, catch back in the next month, in next year, the our investment. In the moment, we don't have any strategy issue at the moment, related to our investment and the work from local service strategy investment. Strategic, sorry, strategic investment. We will see in the next, in the next months.
Mr. Campbell, do you have any additional question?
I guess if I could ask maybe on the en-route traffic guidance, if that's okay. I see that you're guiding for basically volumes 2% above pre-COVID for the full year 2023. We've already seen en-route volumes basically 3.3% above. Could that be argued that it's somewhat conservative? I also noticed that in 2022, en-route traffic significantly outperformed the original projection of 85% and outperformed by about 10 percentage points. Is your traffic guidance generally conservative?
John, what we have used for 2023 is the EUROCONTROL official forecast for Italy, the October sub four forecast that foreseen for Italy 2.3% increase versus the 2019 figures. You're right. January and February, we had increase in terms of ensuing of 3.3, but you also keep in mind that the increase in January is as important. That's definitely important, but not as much as in the summer season. The summer season is the one that really moved the number for us. Say that, we use, as I said, the forecast that EUROCONTROL officially publish. The new forecast will be given by EUROCONTROL in the next few, let me say, weeks.
We believe they will be a little bit better for Italy. If this will be, we will be very happy for it. Always keep in mind, keep in mind that our tariff and our revenue with our tariff is set on the traffic on the performance plan. Even if the forecast change, month by month, this is... affect that not our tariff might affect just some of revenue. This is definitely important, but it's very important to understand it's a really different position. It's always better to perform, to use the, let me say, the closest forecast, official forecast and then change it during the year other than, you know, having forecast that in some way are not in line with the general feeling of traffic forecasting in Europe. Did I answer your question?
Yes, that's helpful. Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Nicolò Pessina with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Just a couple of questions. The first one on the dividend, can you explain why you decided to maintain the payment in October rather than returning to regular distribution in April or May now that traffic has nearly recovered the pre-COVID level? The second question on Aireon, I wonder if you can give us any visibility on dividends, and if there has been any write-down of the value of this equity participation in the 2022 numbers? Thank you.
Yeah. For what concern the first question, why we are paying the dividend in October to pay out our shareholders following the cash in from the good summer season. That's again the main reason, that we expected to have this year, while maintaining at the same time a strong balance sheet. That's the main reason we are, we decide October. For what concern Aireon, as you have seen our balance sheet, actually, there is a resizing of the performance, sorry, of the business plan, long-term business plan. On the base of these, mainly related to the FAA contract that probably will delay a little bit from what were the previous forecast. Will be a couple years, and this in some way move the revenue and the dividend flow in the next year, and that's the reason why we had this write down of our share.
Okay, thanks.
You're welcome.
For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Well, thank you everyone for joining us on this call. Thank you, Paolo. Thank you, Luca. For any further question, you may have, please feel free to follow up with ENAV team. With that, we thank you again, and we wish you a good evening. Bye.
Bye. Thank you.
Bye.
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