Good morning. Good morning to everybody. Welcome to our 2024, 2026 Business Plan Presentation. Welcome to all of the people here in the room with us, and to the ones connected. I'm here today with our CEO, Mr. Flavio Cattaneo, and CFO, Mr. Stefano De Angelis. May I ask to have the agenda on the screen, please? Thank you. Here we are with the agenda for today. Our CEO will drive you through the pillars of the plan, while the CFO will go deeper in financials. After the presentation, we will have a live Q&A session, restricted, I'm afraid, to the people here in the room with us. Thank you, and let me now hand over to our CEO.
Thank you, and welcome to everybody. I kick off my presentation with an overview of the macro environment, and how much changed in the past four months. Interest rates, headline inflation, GDP growth, they were all strongly impacted by monetary policies, creating a high rate and high inflation world, disrupting the one we were living in. These changes called from prompt adjustment to the scenario assumed in our plan, with consequences on capital allocation I will detail later on. New macros moved into the short-term drivers of our business, as you can see on the next slide. Electricity demand is not seen recovering 2022 levels in the near term. Geopolitical turbulences are still fueling commodity prices for far from historical levels.
The levelized cost of energy of both wind and solar increased by 5% and 10% compared to the minimum level reached a couple years ago. Short-term uncertainties require a company to be as flexible as possible. We must be aware, though, that medium trend remains supportive, supportive, as you can see on the next slide. Clients will shift their consumption toward electricity, supporting a recovery in power demand. Contracting reserve margins show energy system aren't ready to accommodate this change. Indeed, the closure of installed capacity and lack of investment in generation resulting in a structural tightening, sorry, in Europe, creating pressure on prices and risk to the system sustainability. Renewables are seen by governments and regulators as a remedy plan.
More competitive than conventional generation, they can help in reducing electricity costs, and support countries in becoming less dependent from coal, gas, and oil. Higher demand, a need for new capacity, and rebalancing energy mix are resulting in visible long-term trends. It's already evident today, the acceleration of the distributed capacity, which calls for grid enhancement to accommodate new connection. Storage will be needed to balance demand with supply, with supply from more intermittent capacity.
As I said before, for sure, renewables will remain cheaper than thermal sources, even if not everywhere and with all the technologies. However, the recent increase in cost and volatility in power prices require project to be covered by adequate and more predictable returns. Short, medium, and long-term strengths are reshaping our key business drivers. Investment will be allocated efficiently with our integrated model to enhance result and speed up delivery.
Regulated businesses will be at the core of our strategy, as we see the need to improve quality and resilience, and to accommodate for hosting capacity. Of course, this must come together with the regulatory frameworks that support value creation. Renewable investment will be cherry-picked, diversifying technologies and countries, analyzing returns and risk, and concentrated capital where the first are maximized, while the latter minimized. We'll leverage on third parties to accelerate paybacks, increase internal rate returns, and valorize our pipeline.
Our portfolio of customers, as well as end-to-end processes, will be optimized to gain efficiency in the acquisition and management of clients, and to push actively towards an electrification of consumption. Generation and retail will be managed together with a flexible approach on sourcing, aiming on improving profitability. Our business positioning will be driven by three strategic pillars. The first, capital allocation.
Our capital allocation will be extremely selective and flexible, driven by value, focused on opportunities that might arise to maximize the risk-return profile of the group. Second, operations. Group operations will run on simplified processes, a linear organization with a clear accountability. We'll maintain a strict operating cost discipline to improve cash generation and offset rising inflation and cost of capital. And the last pillar, sustainability. We'll create a sustainable business model able to self-finance its needs, and to continue addressing climate change issues.
Let's now deep dive into capital allocation, the first pillar. We define the level of investment required to fulfill our strategic priorities and grow our financials. Rules for investing are simple and clear. First of all, we'll deploy capital where returns are visible, regulatory frameworks remunerative, and macroeconomic and political environments stable.
Investment outside core countries, where we can't leverage on our integrated position, will be very limited. We're going to look for market opportunity if this unlock better value, avoiding market volatility. We'll manage actively our customer portfolio with a multiply bundled offer. Core countries remain six, but strategy associated will be different, as each market has its own peculiarities. Stefano will elaborate on that in more detail later on.
In the next slide, I show how this mindset translate into numbers. Our investing model will be much capital lighter than before, and therefore less risky. This will be achieved due to a higher concentration of CapEx in networks, unlocking the access to the European grants, and a recourse to third parties in future renewable project at support of capacity growth.
As a result, our investment will translate into a lower need of cash than previously. Not only, the reshuffle of investment will translate into higher returns and more predictability. In the past, we'll invest more in grids, selectively in renewable, and in country where we manage an integrated position, and where we see political stability.
We focus mostly in Europe. Our CapEx in networks will be allocated where regulation is protective against macro volatility, and returns are well above our cost of capital. Viability of renewable project depend on market and technology. As an internal return associated are maximized, they are edged by our customers. Now, we move to the third slide, where I detail the drivers in each of our business lines.
Investment network will be concentrated on new connection and on improving quality and resilience of the asset base. We'll invest in Europe, where we receive proof that regulatory schemes allow for a fair remuneration on CapEx. As an example, yesterday, the chairman of the Italian authority defined remuneration from grids crucial.
We therefore think the extra return for certain strategic project may be approved, and before investing, we'll wait concrete action in this sense. Importantly, EU institutions are financially supportive to grids digitalization, to make them fit to better accommodate the rapid increase in renewables power generation, and allow the offering of efficiency-based solutions, such as demand response service and bidirectional power flows. Now, let's have a look at renewables. Renewables will be rebalanced in favor of onshore wind and battery storage.
To support returns, we'll seek for a continuous optimization of unitary CapEx and OpEx, leveraging also on innovation. In particular, we'll focus on repowering to increase plant efficiency and reducing generation cost, battery storage to complement the development of renewable capacity while guaranteeing the safety of energy system. Lastly, partnership will be a lever to minimize investment risk, while providing the opportunity to improve profitability, shifting towards a capital-lighter model. On the next slide, I detail our strategy on customers.
Our focus will be on Italy and Spain, where free markets allow to complement our offers with product or service, and with higher profitability. The key drivers of our commercial strategy will be advanced customer segmentation, also with the support of artificial intelligence, to limit the churn and promote customized offering. Channels remix to improve efficiency in clients acquisition and management.
Dedicated key account for top B2B and B2G clients, new operating models covering commodity and services with a single touch point, improve customer experience through simplified and digital process for caring, invoicing, and retention. As a result of our commercial strategy, we expect an improvement of the profitability associated with our rationalized portfolio.
Now, we walk you through cash generation and efficiency, and we are, in this case, in the second pillar of our strategic plan. The guiding star of our strategic action will be financial equilibrium. The last few years, we have characterized our action by a cash burn, resulting in an increased level of the group net debt. Our focus is on reverting completely this trend. The next three years, we'll see the group generating cash as a net investment, and dividend will be covered by funds from operations.
Operating cash flow will be enhanced by a strict cost containment, as shown in the next slide. We reduce addressable OpEx and CapEx by 15%. We work on reshaping corporate processes entirely, streamlining the organization, optimizing the mix between insourcing and outsourcing, adopting standard, and leveraging on technology improvements, adapting to each country. Outside of the addressable cost base perimeter, we'll also work on the regulated business, reducing cost by EUR 200 million, mainly focused on overhead.
The third pillar, the last, our strategy is financial and environmental sustainability. Cash flow generation, cost discipline, and processes streamlining will result in a more solid credit standing. The main metrics will show a sharp improvement of Enel's investment grade profile. Optimization of our asset portfolio, more on regulated activities, will represent a lever to derisk and support predictability of cash generated.
Financial sustainability is to, to go hand in hand with environmental sustainability. Enel will continue to reduce its direct and indirect greenhouse gas emission in line with the Paris Agreement. For the next year, we have a certified emission reduction target, compliant with the 1.5 Celsius degree pathway. We confirm the target to close all our remaining coal plants by 2027. The achievement of such target will, of course, be subject to the authorization of competent authorities.
For the reconversion, Enel will evaluate the best available technology based on the needs indicated by the transmission grid operator. We target to achieve net zero by 2040, when 100% of our power generation will come from renewables, and the push toward electrification will allow us to exit the gas retail business. Let's now take a look at the planned KPIs and targets.
Investment in resiliency and the quality of our grids will result in a 4% reduction in SAIDI, lower network losses, and a higher volume of electricity distributed. Renewable capacity under management will increase to 73 GW, with emission-free production reaching more than 80%. That means that lighter capital doesn't mean less renewables. As a result of our commercial policy, around 45% of our customer base will be in the free market, allowing for bundle offerings to pick up. On the next slide, you see our financial targets. We target an EBITDA in 2027 six, implying a compound annual growth rate of around 5% versus 2023, like for like. Group net income will increase annually by 6% versus 2023 baseline level.
Last but not least, we take a commitment to achieve a lower level of leverage, targeting a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio consistent with a solid investment grade. Now, we focus on our dividend policy. We are adopting a dividend policy, simple, clear, and conjugate the interest of our shareholders with the company need to preserve its credit solidity. Throughout 2026, shareholder will receive a fixed minimum dividend of EUR 0.43, and this is the base.
With an upside, indeed, shareholders will receive a dividend calculated applying up to 70% payout on ordinary net income if the group is able to maintain neutrality of cash flow. To be clear, we have taken into account in our plan an increase of dividend, of dividend annually, starting for 2024, okay? 43 remain for 2023, and then starting with the increase of dividend on yearly basis, and we are taking into account in our plan. This dividend policy implies a total shareholder return for our shareholders between 12% and 16%. Now, I leave the floor to the CFO to go deeper in the plan's numbers, and we'll come back later for some closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you, Flavio. Good morning to everybody. Nice to meet you, the most of you. My presentation, considering that the CEO presentation was probably about figures in detail, I will try to stay, let me say, in a light description of this slide, considering that to be fast and light is not my best attitude when public is speaking, but I will try to do my best. I will start my presentation, as Flavio, with the capital allocation. In our recurring assessment, we, as you may see, we cross in a sort of matrix, the countries and businesses. Then, with each area, we drive investment towards fair and predictable regulation, and where the integrated business coverage allow us to maximize the returns.
In this framework, Europe today offers the best opportunity as we can benefit from full integration along the value chain. In Latin America, we will concentrate investments on networks and position for the progressive liberalization of the retail segment. While finally, in North America, we will leverage on partnership business model and portfolio optimization to fund the activities going forward, while we concentrate of improving profitability of, the existing assets. The output of this approach is showed in the next slides. I'm on page 28, perfect.
Allocation of investment shifted from capacity growth to a risk-balanced EBITDA conversion, backed by a sustainable value creation. In light of this strategic change, now the lion's share of the accumulated CapEx will be invested in Europe, accounting for approximately 75% of the total investments.
There is now a perfect match with EBITDA contribution, as more than 70% is set to be generated in Italy and Spain. This investment will result in a 17% EBITDA growth in 2026 on a like-for-like basis. Looking more closely to the main business slides, and now we set the drivers of capital allocation by business. I will start with grids on the next slide. Okay. CapEx will be tailored according with regulatory frameworks in each geography. In Italy, for example, where the regulation is evolving towards a fair and responsive model to macroeconomic variables, we are ready to invest more than EUR 12 billion of CapEx, resulting also in a rev growth of EUR 2 billion. In Spain, investment will be mostly in line and set to the required level of development and maintenance of the network.
An improvement of the current set of rules will call for an additional capital allocation. Finally, for LATAM, networks regulation runs on a quite fair frameworks, but offer, in our opinion, a relevant value option to be tapped through quality and resiliency programs. Worth highlighting that in Europe, grids can benefit from a significant budget of grants that will yield EUR 3.5 billion acceleration opportunities for network upgrade. The results in terms of EBITDA is shown on page 30. The baseline is net of EUR 0.5 billion perimeter effect from the disposal of our asset in Latin America and in Romania.
Compared with this EUR 7.4 billion, grids EBITDA is expected to grow almost EUR 1 billion over the plan and reach EUR 8.4 billion on the back of a rev increase of EUR 200 million. Second, EUR 400 million impact from favorable regulatory drivers, for example, the TOTEX implementation and WACC reset in Italy, as well as the relevant CPI adjustments in Latin America. Then, we are also leveraging on efficiencies, whose full perimeter will be detailed later, and that account for another EUR 200 million. Last, lastly, sorry for repeating EUR 200 million, EUR 200 million, but it's, it's a good number that sounds well.
The last EUR 200 million comes from a volume-driven impact that is associated with the increase of 6 TWh of electricity distributed in LATAM. And now I move on the generation division. As shown before, Enel focused its recent investment plans in expanding America's, meaning the whole North and South America, renewable capacity. Now we see the opportunity to counterbalance this move as a clear value enhancement.
Accordingly, in Europe, investment will top EUR 7.2 billion, significantly higher than in the past, to drive growth in renewable generation that is backed by our consistent customer base. In Latin America, given the lack of free market and a limited liquid spot market, we will follow a flexible approach based on a risk-weighted renewable development and opportunistic PPA sourcing. Finally, the shift from size to profitability in North America will be centered on cash generation, a self-finance renewable capacity expansion, and leveraging also in our partnership business model. And exactly, I will spend some additional time on this different business model that we are presenting today on slide 32. Our industrial capacity, as you can see, will continue to grow, delivering 14 GW of new additional capacity.
The new approach will aim to implement, will drive us to maximize the capital returns and productivity with the best risk and return balance. And this translates into three parallel business model: the ownership traditional business model to be applied mainly on where we have the best and top-rated returns with a weighted risk to secure these expected and predictable returns. A partnership business model to foster capacity growth, but limiting the impact on the debt, while accelerating paybacks and returns. And finally, the stewardship business model that will continue to be applied to peripheral geographies, and differently from the past, is not expected to generate capital gains over the planned period. This is, I think, very important to underline.
We do not have a significant, relevant, or meaningful contribution in the EBITDA growth that the CEO showed you before from selling equity stake and accounting this equity stake into the EBITDA, to be very clear. The first two model will result into a return of approximately 300 basis points over the cost of capital, and we expect double-digit returns on the stewardship model segment. Moving to the next slide, I will detail the evolution and the strategy on our pipeline. As of today, our pipeline amounts to 450 GW, out of which approximately one-third is in a mature stage. As we sit on 6 GW in execution, capacity still to be addressed is covered 10 times by the portion of mature pipeline, which go in the 2024-2026 period.
This sizable pipeline and healthy coverage of growth ambition allow us to execute major project with higher returns and full eligibility in terms of risk hedging, monetize the portion of pipeline which is not instrumental to our industrial growth, and capture opportunities outside of our core countries that can further improve our risk-return profile. Moving now to the other half of our integrated business, in page 34, I will talk about customers. Again, we will act geographically, according to local market scenarios and Enel specifics. In detail, starting from Europe, where we will reduce the cost of sourcing, expanding renewables marginality. The share of fixed sales covered by our own emission-free production will increase, while indexed volumes are naturally hedged by the wholesale power prices.
In Latin America, we will remain fully hedged through the increased output of the renewable generation, complementing this with PPA in order to match our top line expected expansion. Finally, North America, we will maintain our sourcing sales balance position, and our key priority will be the financial sustainability of renewables development and the improvement of returns in the installed base. In the next slide, I will share some additional point on the full integrated market, meaning Italy and Spain.
Despite the decreasing scenario on power prices in both countries, marginality is supported by the increasing coverage of sales to our emission-free production, that will result into reduction of sourcing cost, as I said before. A higher share of volume sold to B2C in both countries, increasing our exposure to the segment with the highest marginality and cross-selling potential.
Additionally, we see upside from a multi-play bundle offers that will not only support margins, but also strengthen loyalty and reduce churn looking forward. In the following slide, we will take a closer look on how strategy in terms of capital allocation will be converted into returns. The integrated business EBITDA is expected to grow EUR 1.5 billion over the plan, on the back of the following dynamics: renewables growth, I said before, is the result of higher volumes, mainly associated with the 13 GW new capacity to be added.
On the other hand, this will more than offset conventional generation, whose reduced contribution is due to declining volumes, also related to the coal capacity phase-out, mainly in Italy, and the normalization of the commodities price environment that drives down the marginality of the thermal generation business. Customers EBITDA is expected to remain broadly flat over the plan, as the higher share of sales covered by our own production and the increasing contribution of our bundle offer strategy will offset the declining power price scenario.
Looking on our effort in terms of efficiency, they represent a support to this positive evolution in terms of profitability. The efficiency will total EUR 1.2 billion, and we will build over a reduction of approximately 15% of the addressable cost baseline of 2022, plus the reduction of around EUR 200 million of non-regulated network overheads. The cost reduction effort is visible across all business lines, regarding a double-digit improvement of all the KPIs over the plan period. This will free up resources that can be reinvested at double-digit returns, and activate a support to the long-term profitability of integrated margin.
Efforts on costs are mirrored in group streamlining. The leverage of the group was reliant on the execution of an emergency M&A plan, worth more than EUR 12 billion for this year. That plan has been reassessed and adjusted based on the eligibility of deals, and partially reengineered to shift gradually into a value-driven portfolio rotation. Also, to this approach, we sold assets at multiples above expectation, overcoming the addressable M&A perimeter by 1.3 times in terms of proceeds.
In addition, we originated above EUR 2 billion of new deals in the second half of this year, bringing the 2020 through 2023 delivery close to the initial target of around EUR 12 billion. In the next slide, I will recap the assets subject to M&A. This morning, we announced the signing of the Peruvian power generation asset disposal, progressing swiftly on the plan.
On the net debt, this deal has a carryover into 2024, bringing the total expected cash-in related to 2023 into 2024, at around EUR 8 billion. This shift is just a consequence of different timing, and not a gap in execution, and it is related to mandatory procedures for approval and a necessary remix of projects, with some of them just started in the second part of this year. Let's now move on to the financial plan. I'm on page 42.
Around three quarters of our debt is, or has been swapped into fixed debt, while on currency, 85% is in EUR, leaving residual debt in local currency being naturally hedged by locally generated cash flows. The share of sustainable finance sources on total gross debt will reach around 70% of the total.
On the refinancing and cost of gross debt, out of the total EUR 28 billion that will expire over the next three years, about EUR 6 billion will be repaid or matched with the disposal to be cashed in, in 2024, reducing the risk of funding in this period of distressed credit markets, while the remaining portion will be almost entirely covered by our centralized finance at an average cost that we expect to stay in around 4%. This centralized refinancing and the lower exposure to non-core geographies will allow us to reduce the cost of gross debt by approximately 20 basis points, despite the rising interest rates environment.
In next page, I will give some highlight in our strong available liquidity that in September amounted to EUR 23 billion, including cash and long-term committed credit line. This allows us to cover 1.3 times long-term debt maturing in the next 24 months, eliminating any financial risk. The level of yearly refinancing on average gross debt during the planned periods is now 10%, eight percentage points below the last three years. Let's now dive into net income evolution. As I said before, along the plan, EBITDA is expected to mark a high double-digit growth by around EUR 3 billion cumulative.
Financial charges are expected to decline, thanks to the lower cost of debt, driven by an optimized funding strategy. Tax rate is expected to stay in the range of 29%-30% on average. And finally, the trajectory on minorities is primarily driven by the increased earnings contribution from Iberia and Latin America, Brazil, to be more in detail.
Finally, on the financial targets, we confirm the ordinary target we announced at the nine-month results conference call. In addition, we share with you a 2023 baseline into 2024, and pro forma on net debt, which might be useful to defining a clean, a clean starting point. We also had our guidance for 2024, which, as you can see, underpins a front-loaded growth ambition. And now, finally, I hand over to Flavio.
Thank you.
We lost it.
More or less. Well, I can't finish my presentation without having a look at the future. Enel continues to innovate and to monitor less mature technologies that might shape our future. Some example, self-healing network technology to foster digitalization and network integration, long-duration energy storage, green hydrogen, if subsidized, if subsidized, new nuclear, such as fourth generation and small modular reactors.
And lastly, new concept and energy technologies related to space economic trends, like photovoltaic energy production system in orbit and wireless transmission to the ground. Today, here with me, there are the directors of Enel, fully committed to execute and shared guidelines. So now we are totally at your disposal, for starting the Q&A session. Please, let's move on this phase.
Okay, we can light up the room, please. Okay, in order to be as efficient as possible, we have up to maximum, maximum, maximum an hour for Q&A. So I'll take three analysts in a row. Try to be moderate in the number of questions, so possibly not more than three. Maybe we'll go one after the other. So we start with Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Sorry, can you stand up, Alberto, and if you want, state your name and company, of course.
Absolutely. Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll stick to three, and brevity is also not a strong suit of mine, so I'll try to be brief. The first one is on earnings. Would it be possible to characterize the plan as versus the previous targets? Essentially, you have largely removed profits from stewardship profits versus last year. You have less CapEx, but against that, you have more efficiencies, like over EUR 1 billion. You achieve higher returns, and at the same time, you have a better integrated margin. Is this a fair assessment of your EBITDA development, or am I missing, am I missing something? The second is on dividends.
If I look at your slide 17, and I do a very barbarian calculation, it seems to indicate EUR 17.5 billion for dividends, if I do FFO minus the CapEx for free cash flow neutrality, which is like EUR 0.57-EUR 0.58 average dividend. So what I'm trying to say is, why did you formulate the dividend policy this way? Because it seems unrealistic well, i t seems highly probable that you're gonna be free cash flow positive, not neutral. So why not just say EUR 0.47-EUR 0.50 by 2026? Maybe to give us some surprise and debate here, but that's one indication.
And third question: Would it be possible for you perhaps to disclose what absolute IRRs you are expecting in renewables, and what EBITDA over CapEx you think the renewable deployment might lead throughout the plan? Thank you so much.
Okay, if you don't mind, we will just collect the questions. I think, Javier, you had a question, right? So can you just the mic? Thank you.
Thank you, Monica. Javier Garrido, JP Morgan. I just have two. The first one is on your cash conversion. Looking at your numbers with an aggregated EBITDA through the three-year period of around EUR 70 billion, and FFO of EUR 43.8 billion, that would suggest a low cash conversion. The previous plan was looking for moving to a cash conversion of 70%. Given that the focus is on cash flow, what's the difference? Why are you assuming such a low cash conversion in the next three years? And then the second question is about investments in Spain.
You are looking for a EUR 2.5 billion euro increase in CapEx in Spain versus the pro forma plan previously. A big deal of that is in renewables. To which extent do you feel comfortable with Spain fulfilling that, macro, political stability, particularly from a tax point of view, given the discussions about extension of the special energy tax, the discussions about higher effective corporate taxes, how flexible could you be about those CapEx plans in Spain? Thank you.
Okay, maybe we close the row of three with Jenny.
Hi, thanks very much. Jenny Ping from Citi. Three questions also from me, please. Just on the shape of the free cash flow, given a lot of your disposals is happening in 2023 and 2024, does that mean it's going to be front-end loaded in terms of that positive free cash flow, and getting to the 70% payout? And then on the dividend, back to Alberto's question, slide 17, just to check the dividend block that you referred to, is that just for ordinary dividends, or does that include hybrids and minority dividends?
I think that's key. And then just thirdly, you talk strategically about new, more developing technologies like nuclear, etc. I presume the hurdle rates around there is meaningfully higher, given some of the risks around it. It would be interesting to, if you can elaborate on that. Thanks.
Okay, I think we can kick off with the first, which is a sum-up of the plan, right, Alberto? Alberto asked if the sum-up of the plan in terms of earnings evolution is consistent, right? With what you were saying. So you were referring to lighter CapEx, less stewardship, more returns on what we invest, and dividends, which is growing up. So it's just a confirmation that what he said.
Yeah, I don't understand. Is it a strategy question or if a figures detail.
Answer that you expect.
He said,
Strategy, I leave the floor.
Because of you have more margin, why you pay only this dividend, the beef, no? I understand. Well, I got it. Right. But, take in consideration then, Stefano enter into detail. But when you elaborate the plan, you have considered any situation, and better safe than sorry. You consider that these number are safe. We have not considered, you have analyzed the increase of price in energy, like before. Our margin are solid because coming from cost-cutting and improve acting of our customer base, like other sectors.
We are confident, not only as a CEO or the CFO, but all the management team, the ability of this management to reach this result. This is the first plan, no? As I said before, the increase of dividend starting from next years. That means that 2023 is the last year with EUR 0.42, no? And we are taking into account this assumption. Consider that number safe. And you are, in your analysis, you can elaborate whatever you want during the year, no? Quarter by quarter, and then you can calculate yourself, which w e are give you a simple payout, no?
That means this is safe, and then you calculate an evolution on, on that. Even though we have seen many of your hypotheses before this day, no? But today you have a number solid, real number where you can start your analysis about the evolution of dividend. We know I'm shareholder, I'm not waiting, the stock option for have, no, share of Enel. Today, I have already, buy share, I improve my position, and I believe also in our dividend policy.
Okay, the third question of Alberto, I think he is basically answered. No, he basically answered the one, one and two, right? The third one was on IRRs a ssociated with renewables and EBITDA on CapEx, on averaging the plan.
Well, about dividends, so also to anticipate the point that was not a question, was a clarification that you to share with us. The dividends represented, as always, in the output of the presentation of Enel, includes also the dividends paid by the impact, let me say, of the dividend paid, for example, by Endesa, by Enel Américas, and by all the companies that are part of our group. So the figure seems higher if you consider all the dividend payout, and the dividend that could be paid by Enel.
In terms of IRR renewables, it depend, I don't like to give one figure because, you know, that is a completely different situation, looking at building a photovoltaic plant in Brazil today or last year, or do it the same in Spain, in Italy, or in North America. So we look at spread, and differently from, I wouldn't say the industry, because I saw that also the industry use, we would say weighted return. So our goal is to have a spread of approximately 300 basis points. These 300 basis points may be reached directly looking at the, let me say, the fundamentals of the business plan attached to the project. We are not including the margin of the final customers. This is important to share with you.
So if we have an additional margin that is part of the customer, this is not part of the 300 basis points, as some player in the industry used to present in the past. So it's just the Enel Green Power return, to be very clear. These 300 basis points are weighted. What I mean for weighted? If now I have an LCOE of BRL 200 in Brazil, and the market price stood at BRL 350, it's not the case, but I do not hedge, eh? Unfortunately, at BRL 350, I do not have a coverage in terms of uncertain , that give me some value in terms of predictable 40 years repayment, in terms of energy price, that will be assured by the government, let me say, by the system.
Or I have long-term contracts, sales, long-term contract. For me, that IRR doesn't means nothing. We will not look at that investment if we don't have an adequate level of coverage in terms of predictable, but predictable, I will make it parallel with the RAB of the networks. Doesn't mean I can expect to, I need to have contracts signed or strong commitment to sign, and then I will take this, and I will wait the amount of predictable revenues, and clearly, the level will be part of the IRR, to put this investment into our metrics of evaluating the, the capital allocation. Coming back to the point, I can tell you 10%, because 10% could be the proper IRR in Italy, where we have a WACC that is based on the macro variables in Italy.
If I tell you 10% in Brazil, I'm losing money in terms of value creation. So our focus will be on the spread and on weighted spread. When to complete, let me say, the framework, when we don't have 300 basis points, we will try to apply the partnership model or the stewardship model, because this is something that may help us to increase the return on the investment, investment, and bring this plant, this investment, into the expected value creation returns.
And that's why in some countries, in some technology, we are strongly pushing on the partnership model, for example, the solar. Okay. Do you want to add first? No, but our approach is an entrepreneurial approach. I never lost one cent in my life. I don't intend starting now. No? And no, this analysis is the principle, my guiding star, no?
To be sure that this is my approach in any activities. Where there is not a possibility to recovery marginality, and, you know, it is a negative for us, we sell or cut this activity and starting with the new ones. We expect, obviously, for the stewardship, a double-digit return, no? Mainly because we, don't have the, we don't consolidated the debt, no?
While the other are below, but at the same time, you consider where we are an integrated model, we have also the margin on top the PPAs, no? Because if we fix the PPAs, the, the price of the market, but the price of the, price of the sell of the customer base is, higher than the PPAs. And these have another margin on top of, no, the construction of the plan, because this is another activities.
Okay.
Regarding strategic, I don't know if,
There is one on cash conversion.
Yes, conversion for me.
The first one of Javier, why the cash conversion seems to be lower in this plan compared with the previous plan, right? That, that was your your question on cash conversion.
Yes, if you compare with the previous plan, but historically, the level of cash conversion is better than the Enel performance. In the previous plan, you had approximately EUR 2.5 billion of full recognition in the FFO of part of the M&A program. That was the gas sale. So you were selling this contract, and you were having 100% of the benefit in the FFO. That's why you have that spike in the FFO. Let me say, wait, but if you look at the historical performance of Enel, this is better than the historical performance of Enel, reaching more than approximately 65%. So clearly, at the end of the plan, improving the results of our strategy-
This is not included in no one asset rotation, in case.
Yes.
Just if you compare the last one.
Then at the end of the plan, this figure will continue to improve, but because clearly, the results of the capital allocation decision will be visible by the end of the plan. Now, we are part of our strategy that will be visible starting from yesterday. Let me say, we are here from June, and we were not waiting for today, clearly. And there is something that will boost the performance, and also the ratio that you are referring to, along the plan. Okay.
Okay, I think the strategic question you were referring to was the second of Javier about the investments in Spain. Given the increase in investments in renewable, are we comfortable with the framework, in particular about discussions that potentially are ongoing on extension of taxes? So?
Yeah, super, even. Now, in terms of, let me say, in, in terms of matching again, you have to consider that we are still in a short position in Spain, looking at our B2C and SMB customers. So, and again, this is not part of the evaluation in terms of IRR that I was discussing before, but this is something that, we strongly consider in terms of weighting that expectation, in terms of results coming from the project. So first of all, we have this coverage. Then, José, Pepe may add something if you want, but you have available, for all the financial community in, in the specific Endesa Capital Markets Day. The framework today, as you may see in the results of Endesa, give us good returns.
So, we may expect an improvement, if I have to be honest, in the next years coming from the regulatory framework in Spain. But also, if you consider the existing regulatory frameworks, we are not losing money in Spain, so we are having good results. We expect to have positive results next year, and we are sharing with you, and again, Pepe will share with you, all the fundamentals to be firm on expecting this improvement, this recovery in terms of profitability. So we are not talking about something that is in a negative results framework.
So there is some potential adjustment in the regulation that may help us to have an incremental returns from the investment in Spain? Yes. Is this affecting also our strategy in terms of partnership? No, considering that the EUR 6 billion partnership program, let's call it this way, that you are looking at in the presentation, for one third is, I will say, almost closed.
And mainly in Spain. You consider that, no, our investment in solar, principle, will be with partners. In this case, it is an opportunity, no? You are in a short position. Our strategy will be reduced top and large, improve the customers, the final customer base as consumer. That means more marginality. If you have more marginality and use the partnership, you will improve. N o marginality, even though the tax is fed and whatever you want, no?
Okay, I think we move to Jenny's question. Free cash flow. The first one, Jenny, was on free cash flow, right? Even if it was the positive free cash flow generation was front-loaded or more steady in the plan, and if it has consequences on the dividend step up.
Yes
It's super front-loaded, meaning that you have clearly it depends if you start from the Pro F orma Net Debt or not. If you consider the reported net debt, it's super front-loaded because we have approximately EUR 8 billion of carry-on cash in from the disposal plan. So then if you look at the EBITDA, that's why I was underlining the front load, we have the growth of the EBITDA that is higher in the first year than the average. So we are clearly putting another, let me say, risk balance approach.
So we have a strong visibility on 2024, and we are ready to share with you all our commitment to have that, let me say, more high single digit growth in the EBITDA than 5%. Then we have a more, let me say, prudent approach on the 2025, 2026. So it's completely front-loaded.
Okay, I think your second one, Jenny, was on what was included in the dividends absorption, if we were including dividends or also interest rates on hybrid, right?
Yeah, already answered.
I know it is. Okay.
As always, now, this was
Remain the last one, nuclear.
On nuclear technology, yeah.
Our position in the nuclear.
Yeah.
No?
Correct.
Well, you know, we already manage nuclear in two countries. One as a with other partner, and in Spain, with Endesa, in Slovakia, no? Let me say, we have a position today. We don't intend to participate in another construction with the current technologies, but we see all the revolution of technologies, and in this case, we are already into nuclear. That is a company to starting the fourth generation in nuclear. We are in also sign MOU for the small reactor. We are looking for any technology, any evolution. Having said that, it is not our line, starting with the new nuclear plant, with the current technologies, no? Having said that, we already manage nuclear in two countries in Europe.
Okay, I think we can open up, or maybe we continue in the row. Ahmed? Thank you. Can you stand up? Perfect.
Hi, Ahmed Farman from Jefferies. Three questions from my side. Could you please talk a little bit about your expectations for retail and integrated margin in Italy, particularly for 2024? So this year has been particularly strong. I think for next year, you know, one sort of potential headwind could be lower power prices. Are you expecting lower tariffs? And if so, are there any offsetting factors, and what's the overall picture? That's question number one.
Secondly, as part of sort of your overall capital allocation, you have continued sort of, to sort of focus on the six key countries and the same Latin American exposure within the group. I'm sort of interested in understanding your thought process as to why you sort of believe that that's the right, regional Latin American exposure for the group. Then just finally, at the end of 2022, there was quite a bit, quite a lot of working capital outflow in the group because of various government measures. Has that all been recovered, or is that some of that cash flow recovery still a part of the 2024 to 2026 plan? Thank you.
Okay, we move. Javier, you wanna? Thank you.
Yes, Javier Suarez, Mediobanca. Three questions. The first one on the, on the numbers, and two on the, on the strategy. On the numbers, and is, maybe a follow-up after my, my colleagues', questions, is on, on the following calculation. The operating cash flow of the company, every year should be, around EUR 14 billion-EUR 15 billion. CapEx is now at EUR 9 billion. That means an operating, free cash flow of EUR 6 billion, and then the dividend at EUR 0.43 per share correspond to EUR 4.5 billion. So, that is, implies that the, cushion that you have on your numbers is in excess of EUR 1 billion at least. So, would you agree with that comment?
Do you think that that is a fair statement, and in the numbers is embedded that cushion, cushion of over EUR 1 billion? Then on the strategy, the thing that has caught my attention is, and you have been mentioning that, the reduction on CapEx. I think that the consensus is for the company to have an annual CapEx between EUR 11 billion and EUR 12 billion. Now the company is indicating EUR 8 billion-EUR 9 billion of CapEx, so there is a sizable decrease on CapEx. How do you explain that?
Do you think that there is any strategic swing towards a model that is significantly less capital intensive, and that means that strategically, a company like Enel see less necessity of being vertically integrated, and is saying that there is more value of being lone clients versus generation? Then the final question on the strategy as well, why a company that is moving CapEx toward core geographies still believe that net debt to EBITDA should be at 2.3x ? Don't you think that for a company that has 80%-70% of total EBITDA and CapEx in more stable region, that level of leverage is too conservative? Thank you.
Roberto, do you want to?
Yeah, thanks. Roberto Letizia from Equita. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is on one of the assumption that you included in the plan, with regards to the growth in energy demand and electricity demand in particular. You, you presented at 26, quite a significant increase in energy demand, but actually in 23, we are moving through a -4%, and this is also across Europe. So basically, the short-term impacts of the energy savings is more visible than the increase of penetration of electrification.
So I just wonder, why do you expect that short term, this will be reverted, leading to a higher demand of, electricity? And if case, in case it's not, how this is gonna impact eventually your strategy plan? The second one is on, networks. You have increased significantly the investment in network, specifically in Italy. Wondering if this includes investment in LNG. In the south of Italy, there has been discussion of you being interested or potentially recovering the old investment program in the LNG. Are you gonna do that?
Are you gonna do on a base of merchant exposure, or will you play it as a fully regulated operator, just to again, protect, as you said, the returns? The third question is on the prudence that you have taken. So you are not including stewardship capital gains, but you're almost certainly generating capital gains in the future. You just announced a deal which has EUR 60 million gains on the generation side. So how will you treat then, the capital gains when it comes to dividend distributions? So will this, again, part of the ordinary net income to which we have to apply the payout or not? And very, very.
Yeah.
No, go ahead.
No, it's very easy.
Joking.
You didn't mention Enel X. Can you tell us what's the new story of Enel X? Is it gonna be part of the retail? Just very briefly. Thanks a lot.
Okay, so first one of Ahmed, expectation on Italian margin in 2024, and what are the offsetting factors that you see in the margins for Italy? I think Francesca can get the.
Just to let the management participate in the discussion.
Yeah, retail, retail 2024 in Italy.
Yeah. Hi, good morning. So, concerning integrated margin in overall in Italy, for next year. Shall I stand up?
Uh, maybe.
No problem, I mean.
No.
For next year, we'll expect to leverage on many different levers in order to keep it at the level it is. So basically, we know that going ahead with times, we will have lower sourcing costs. We will also have additional value from our product and services, and all integrated into our product offering. So basically, I think that that will be pretty steady. So no matter what, to 2023 will be, we know that things are going to be different, and we'll work on that, both on sourcing and on sales.
I can add something. The commercial strategy, the new Chief of Enel X, resume, but forgive you some pillars on that. We have two pillars. On the cost side, we'll be more efficient. That means also less cost of sourcing. The other side, commercial, more importantly. So far, we have had a 20% of churn. It's impossible to have and maintain this level of churn, no? That means in the next three years, lose 6 million clients. We need to starting with the way back, the attention, change in this approach, also with approach with the different geographies. In Milan, we have not incumbent. In Rome, we have no incumbent in either in second place.
That we have space for reconquer of the market share geographically. At the same time, we have, in our opinion, with the new focus on, and then I answer also the new model for analysts. Analysts have to be concentrate in our business, and all the business that allow Enel to reach more consumption and retention, not other business around of the world, is concentrate, no? Remain where we are integrated, vertically integrated.
Now, when we see, when we sell a charging point, it's important to have energy. Otherwise, your business is charging point business is not energy company, it another kind of company. When you decided to sell, no, some infrastructures without an integration, no? Okay, if you decided to sell the auto production in the U.S., for example, good, but it's not our business, no?
Our business is, when a client, our client, buy from Enel photovoltaic for auto production, paying per month, no? Integrated, no, in installment every month. That means retention for us, reducing churn, improving our positioning. We leverage all in our business. We generated, distributed, and sell energy. I don't see another, no, kind of approach on that, and I am very happy that Mrs. Gostinelli is very dedicated to recovery this position up, in starting from Italy, where is a possibility, but also in Spain, where there is a possibility to improve and decrease in some, for example, top and large, now, where the marginality is less, rather than the consumer. It is reshaping on that.
I stay with the question from Ahmed. I think the second one was on the six core countries, why we think that the countries we picked in Latin America are the right place to stay?
Okay, but when you look at the capital allocation in terms of Latin America, you see a significant reduction in terms of additional renewable capacity. This do not mean that we do not consider a right place to stay. This means that we are rebalancing the last, let me say, six years, three years of investment that were strongly overweighted at Americas, as I say. So in Latin America, we have reached a very fair and good position, you know, that we are one of the most relevant player in terms of network. We are one of the most relevant players in terms of energy production. We are one of the most relevant player in terms of markets, even if the market is now limited to the top client segments.
So what we are saying today, we are balancing our capital allocation because in this moment, we are experiencing, in our opinion, a turnaround of the South America, a turnaround towards an improvement. But the volatility is too high to invest in a 25-year duration plan, to be straight to the point. So we are not considering this an investment that is not part of our strategy looking forward. We have a strong flexibility allowed by the PPA, by optionality, so, we will continue to stay there.
We have positive returns in the networks. Clearly, when you face double-digit inflation, like in Brazil in the last two years, it's tough, and it's very relevant to have a fair and predictable regulation, as we are seeing. As the CEO was travel in Brazil recently, and take this, let me say, also effort in improving the relationship of Enel with the local authorities, or in order to have a more good and predictable returns in terms of networks. As you may see in this plan, we are maintaining the level of network investments in Brazil, but as in Spain, we are ready to increase this investment, but only if, only if.
We do not see this as a negative framework. We see a positive framework in terms of evolution. We will see what will happen in Argentina now with Mr. Milei. In Brazil, we have a very solid also political framework today with Mr. Lula, so we don't, I don't know, Flavio, if you want to add something in terms of local political framework. And, then, there was a question on the working capital.
On the working capital, yeah. Sorry if not.
Yes, the working capital, to be very straight, the problems that were arise in 2022 was has been absorbed, as we also discussed in the last nine months conference call. What may happen today, but it's not a call for an excuse, probably there will be, for example, with the Fine Tutela, you know, some impact in the working capital, but I'm not asking for every discount, you know, it's just something when managing regulatory customers, a regulatory, a mandatory treatment in terms of you have the deposit, you may not have the deposit in the new scheme, you may face, let me say, a limited shifting in terms of working capital, but just to tell you that nothing compared with what happened in 2022. So that impact is completely absorbed.
Javier, the first question was on confirmation that we have basically, instead of what we call cash flow neutrality, a buffer of around EUR 1 billion, right? That was the sense of your question. So just a confirmation that we have a bit. We are going a bit better than cash neutrality.
Yes. And again, I don't know if it's clear that it's not just the dividends of Enel S.p.A. in that, in the figure we are. At the end of the plan, and we have, let me say, significant also figure coming from Endesa, as it was in the past, and it would be in the next future. And we have also the impact of the hybrid, that is almost EUR 200 million per year. So there is, the question, is zero? Not, but it's not EUR 1 billion cash per year, because you have to take into account the also the dividends paid to the minorities of our group companies.
The second one of Javier was about the two different strategic shift, like, one, on a capital lighter model for renewables. If you see that a structural trend for the sector, and the other one, if this shift into a capital lighter model or the introduction of the partnership means that you see less value in the integrated model.
No, absolutely no. Again, this is a very asset management approach, if we would like to go in this way, because it's the way of reaching the ambitious return. So if this return may be supported also by, for example, the partnership model, why not? This also helps our productivity of the capital, because, again, this plan is strongly driven by weighted, the words in my vocabulary, weighted, weighted. If I have 10,000 projects, I will follow 10,000 projects. No, because it's the dispersion. Another word that is focused for us is accountability. So we don't want to have a dispersion of the focus of the company, of the management of the company. So we will focus on the best returns.
If the reserve, these returns are not the proper one, we will activate also the alternative business model, like the partnership or the stewardship, but we will focus on. So it's not a structural forever reduction of the level of CapEx. To be honest, today, in Brazil, we do not have good returns in our pipeline, and support, supported by PPA in sale or contract that may allow us to make, let me say, a green tick into approving a new plant today.
If in one year, one year and a half, we will have a proper ROE, a proper market to build new capacity in Brazil, we will introduce into our metrics, we will evaluate, and if the result is okay, we will invest again then. Considering, lastly, that we have a lot of new capacity that was added in Americas in the last three years. Don't forget that we have new capacity that is entering today, and will enter next year, coming from the investment that we are maintaining of the previous plan.
I think the, the next one is still with you, Stefano, because it was about a capital shift, a capital allocation shift towards stronger countries, and why we are happy with a 2.3x net debt on EBITDA, while maybe considering, given the shift of capital allocation, to leverage a bit higher.
But it's, I agree. What was the question for, coming from? Yeah, it's?
Javier.
Okay, if we look at the industry, the 2.3 is low, but it depends on what you mean for low. Again, I don't love debt coming from leverage index of the industry. For example, in Brazil, leverage, if the lower, the better. I spent part of my life in Brazil, and I never had a high leverage there, because you know that in 18 months, what was the best positive evolving scenario may turn into a disaster one, huh? So you have to be with a very light debt position. Let me say, the financial deleverage will again depend on the opportunity to invest capital at a very good, proper, and expected results.
In this moment, Enel is coming out from an emergency situation, so we don't see that figure as something that worry us. It's at maximum, at maximum, a happy problem. Now, because don't forget that we arrive here with EUR 12 billion of emergency M&A selling previous core business asset. So nothing today for us, in terms of leverage, is considered as safe, no, or prudent. No, prudent, is to stay here today saying exactly, answering your question. Okay.
We move quickly. Question on electrification, what is triggering the electricity demand increase going forward? I think Francesca can take the question.
So regarding this, of course, as it was shown in the first slides, the levels that were reduced in 2023 have been considered as a baseline. So basically, if you compared our expectation to the past, our expectation are lower than they used to be. So in my opinion, I think the increase in demand and in power consumption from customer is in line with what is happening right now. And then on this side, as all reports at international level are showing us, you can have surprises if the electric mobility will step in in an accelerated way, or downside, if something is decelerating. But I wanted to be clear that the decrease that we registered this year has been taken into account.
The next one was on Porto Empedocle, our view, and if the CapEx was, is included in our plan.
I think the question was the grids and Porto Empedocle.
If Porto Empedocle was included.
I answer about Porto Empedocle, and then I leave the floor for Gianni Armani, for the grid. We have not included Porto Empedocle yet in our plan. We're waiting the new law that recognize Porto Empedocle as a strategic asset, Italian strategic asset. When we have received this description as a strategic asset, we ask to the authorities a fully regulated business. Because you know, what is the functionality of that, no? Will be the action, the auction, no? If remain part of the availability of the regas, this part available, not assigned to no one, as in charge of the, no, the authority feed. Tariff, sorry.
On grids CapEx, Italy accounts for the most, the highest growth, mainly for taking into account the highest reactive regulatory system that Italy has, accounting for RAB, year- by- year, adjusting for WACC variations and inflation. These elements, of course, takes into account faster than other regulations the changes that we had in discount rates, and favors investments faster than the other regulations. The drivers for the growth are mainly two. First of all, the PNRR investments, EUR 3.2 billion that have been assigned to Enel for mainly in digitalization and hosting capacity growth. And the other is a plan that we are working on.
There is a consultation document from the authorities in September that was issued, that is going to favor resilience investments. We are working on the structure, but this is driving a big part of the investments, additional investments in the network.
The thing is, the regulatory framework give us opportunity to enjoy an additional returns for the new investment. That means WACC plus. Like in Terna, part of you know, when I was in charge of Terna, no? For the, at that time, were 200 basis points in additional, no, for the new investment, especially in some part of Italy. This could be an occasion for us, no, an opportunities to invest, because the return of capital improve a lot. But not only, started a competition with different countries for attract, for to be more attractive, no, in comparison with the other, for new investment in grids.
You know, the International Energy Agency that estimate at least $600 million each year for the next 10 years for upgrade the networks. This is a part of the new era, the new age in energy, in my opinion, for the next years.
Okay, I think the last one was on the fact that we are not including stewardship gain. Since we are prudent on that, and how we will treat them on dividend side.
Yeah, I try to recover time. As I said before, the disposals are not included in the plan as a supportive EBITDA growth factor. We are aware that there are deals that we are managing that will create, let me say, using the same representation, a positive impact. What you have to, the question was also about the impact in terms of dividend policy, no? So the point is, there are disposals today. Concept that we are in our books in terms of cash. We are not considering them in terms of the EBITDA growth, so this is part of the cash flow you see, because the deals that we are including, but we cannot today tell you exactly what it is. We know what it is, clearly, and we know the impact that this may generate.
Then there are the potential new stewardship that will be crystallized, and this will not, this is not part, clearly, of the EBITDA. It is not part of our cash flow projection. In this case, clearly, the dividend policy will depend on, no, if this is something that is EUR 200 million, this do not dramatically change the profile of the cash flow, so may accelerate or not something, but we don't see. If this is something that is a huge value.
Yes, let me spend some words about it.
Yeah.
Because six months ago, not six years ago, six years ago, when I discuss with the part of you or part of the shareholders, they totally concerned about the payment of the dividend, not the improve of dividend. The Enel will be able to sustain this dividend because they improve the debt. Now, the discussion is, but if you sell the stewardship, no? Step by step, guys, no? This is just started six months ago, no? We have said that is a prudent plan. Leave some time because, as I said before, I already bought 1.5 billion shares. Now I bought, I intend to buy another billion. I don't invest my money for lose something. Stop! This is the beef, no? Otherwise, is the side order, no?
We have less than 10 minutes to go. I think we can go ahead with Analyst Emanuele.
Emanuele Oggioni at Kepler Cheuvreux . Thank you for taking my question. The first one is on networks in the U.S. You mentioned, first of all, Enel doesn't have a footprint in networks in the U.S., but you mentioned in the slide that there is room to improve the efficiency of this part in the world. And so, my question is, if you are looking for acquisition in networks in the U.S., or in general, when Enel will be back, will be really back to do acquisition, and in what countries or sectors, etc ? The second question is still on networks, in particular in Italy.
I wonder to what extent the TotEx, total expenditure mechanism, so the ROSS is included or not in the plan, or what are your expectation about this? And still on networks, in Brazil, there are recurring issue with local authorities' relationship, for example, in the last few weeks, in São Paulo for the São Paulo concession. So I wonder if also in Brazil, which is still a core countries and in particular in networks, if what could happen in the future in terms of regulation or in a strategy, if the situation will be difficult, I don't know.
And finally, on renewables, you mentioned more than roughly 10 times coverage from a mature pipeline compared to the addressable, to your target of increased capacity, additional net capacity along the plan. So you have an excess of pipeline, and so I ask how more details about what part could be disposed, etc., more color on that. Thank you.
Okay. Is there anyone else? I think Bartek over there. Meike, maybe we stay with Meike and we go. Okay, let's go.
Hey, thank you very much.
Maybe just a couple, Bartek, so come back, Meike.
Sure, it will be very, very short. Bartek Kubicki of Bernstein . Three super short questions. Firstly, on grants, plenty of grants, utilization in your plan. As you, as you can imagine, grants don't go to RAB, so they don't, they don't generate return. How do you want to play this game? How do you think about this? But you are using so many grants and not simply investing your own money to increase RAB? That will be the first one. Secondly, you can clarify what's your view on the Brazilian grid you intended to sell previously, but now it's on hold. And thirdly, if you can, say, tell us what are your assumptions regarding clawbacks and or additional taxes, in your business plan until 2026? Thank you.
Thank you, Meike. Sorry, I jumped you. You wanna?
That's all.
Thank you. This is Meike Becker from HSBC. Maybe if you get to the end of the questions, the closing question could be something like: what are your long-term expectations? We have the plan to 2026. We may have established that it might be on the conservative side, and you feel very comfortable with the numbers. How do you feel about Enel's prospect to 2030? How do you think about the growth between 2026 and 2030, and what could be the drivers? Thank you.
Okay, network in the U.S., or elsewhere, are we looking for any M&A?
First, then I leave to the CEO for M&A. I was the owner of the slide, so one clarification. If you see, the slide is not there. If you see, the slide is not empty in terms of colors. So we are discussing grids, generation, and customers. In grids, what we call for attention is that, in the United States today, there is an issue in terms of how the networks are planned, managed by the authorities, because they are creating a huge problem for who runs our business in terms of congestion. So it's also a claim, let me say, so it doesn't mean we want to invest there, no.
It's the call to attention that there today there is a problem, because they are managing a huge increase in terms of renewable capacity based on incentive, but they are not managing at the same time properly and currently, the grids and the distribution network upgrade.
Okay, M&A.
M&A, we're not included in our plan any M&A. Of course, for what concern the pipeline, what it is in effect of our needs, we are available to the disposal, of course. Depends of the country, the situation, you know, that we have declared that we have 100 GW as a total amount, with different aspiring will be ready next year, and in 2025 and 2026, and then we organize in this sense about our needs.
So, sorry, on the pipeline, one point, important things, because I like to be precise on the figures. Part of the pipeline valorization, it's already in the concept of partnership, because when we realize a partnership,
Yes, but this is part of our needs.
Yeah, yeah, but.
When is excluded all, 100%, excluding partnership, 51%, excluding stewardship, less than 50%, a part of this needs. We are available to dispose. And that means no other cost of construction for someone, no, or other situation.
A couple of questions, I think, direct to Gianni. One is on TotEx, and what are our views on the Ross?
And then the grants, that is not unprofitable. You can explain, please.
Yes, three elements. First of all, Italy, TotEx, we are incorporating TotEx hypothesis in the plan. There is not a major change in the process. It's only an evolution of the regulatory approach towards the regulation, which separates the ordinary activities from whatever is development, and shifting development to, let's say, cost-benefit analysis. In terms of impact, there's a minor impact in anticipating cash versus deferring cash, but is basically indifferent in terms of the plan. Grants, we use grants to accelerate to improve network in general, and in particular, in Italy, hosting capacity.
Anticipatory investments are a key issue that has been discussed even at EU level, given the fact that renewable development is now very competitive and doesn't need the incentives, but it requires a network to be ready to host the new capacity, and therefore, grids will be a major issue in all EU regulation, and therefore, attract grants. We actually benefit from grants.
As you said, of course, they don't give a long-term value in terms of return, even though they give a value in terms of quality of service, but they guarantee a return of 10%, more or less, on the, let's say, the financial hurdle that you face in managing so much accelerated CapEx. They give a contribution on indirect cost, additional, which brings a significant return overall to the effort.
In terms of the concessions in Brazil, instead, in general, all the Latin American concessions have to shift from a model in which growth is financed by the growth of electrification. The rates that we had in the past are not consistent in the future, and therefore, you need to shift to a more consistent regulation like we have in Europe. This is an effort, and they are facing also climate change impact, as we had in Europe, for instance, with Ciarán cyclone that hit France and Italy. For instance, in France, they had one-week outages all through the nation. Same happened in São Paulo, and has happened week after in Rio. Networks have to be ready for resilience.
This is clear to all institutions. Then, of course, when a crisis happens, everybody tries to shift the burden to somebody else. And if trees fall, we are not responsible for trees. Of course, even people have been injured by trees falling. That is an issue that has to be managed, that impacts telecommunication as well as electrical network, but has to be faced overall in climate change effort that all infrastructure have to manage.
Alberto, maybe if you want to comment on Ceará and our views on.
Also, the situation in Brazil.
The situation in Brazil.
About the minister, the letter coming from there.
Yeah, on Ceará, so the other main points on Brazil is all the concessions are under a renewal process. And clearly, so the first outcomes are positive for renewals. Clearly, we need to know the final framework to understand everything about, so what are the new way to on the regulation and the concessions. And Ceará will be then, now is a process that is on hold to know what will be the final outcome of this process on that side. On the other sides, so clearly, what Gianni was saying, clearly, now the climate change is clearly affecting and acting on Brazil and other countries.
The shape and the way in which the network are in Brazil, that are overhead power lines, and country and cities full of trees, is one of the most things that we have to address. Clearly, we need to have clear regulation, supportive regulation. We are ready to do our part in a way to make this network more resilient and more reliable.
I think we have to close the Q&A session. Maybe if you want to give a couple of words around the long-term strategy of the company.
Let me say, it's difficult to foresee the next two years beyond. It's quite complicated, but I think that, as I said before, the grids remain one of the first element in the world, in my opinion. Climate change, you see, not only in generation plan, but you all see with that, we have had a local blackout, a situation around of the world, with all over world. That means, you have to reconsider, no, the resiliency of the grid. That means a lot of investment, first of all. Then, the Evolution of Technologies.
We have seen the evolution also in the simple, technologies like solar, no? In terms of cost, only 10 years ago, we paid EUR 3 million for each megawatt. Now, we pay less than 1,800 ,000 I'm sorry, euro. And also, the hour per year, the storage, the storage in gravity. The system will change completely. For this reason, remain flexible means to be ready to catch the opportunity, no? Because we are in the middle of change. And when there is not clear, the way, is imprudent over invest in only one way. Which is today, one, the sure investment?
In my opinion, great. Second, our buy customer base, because this remain, no? The people, I think, that remain, that we invest more in this way. Then, for what concern generation, we have at the. I include generation, also storage, because it's part of the generation, because it is an optimization of the generated electricity. And then you take in consideration also the consumption, no? And the evolution of the consumption.
If this improve this consumption, we need also other technologies, other grids. I'm not negative for the future of this sector. And we analyzing also beyond 2026, even though we have not received inside. But the message is, we are ready and flexible to catch the opportunity in favor of the shareholder, all the shareholder, in our shareholders. Well.
Okay, I think this concludes the Q&A session. Thanks for your participation. Any unanswered question will find the IR team available as always. Thank you, and see you next time.