Good evening to all the people connected. Welcome to the first half 2026 result presentation. Enel CEO, Flavio Cattaneo, will open with the key highlights, and our CFO, Stefano De Angelis, will present the economic and financial result of the period. We ask those connected to the webcast to send question only via email at investor.relations@enel.com. Before we start, let me remind you that media is listening both to the presentation and the Q&A session. Thank you. Now let me hand over to the CEO.
Thank you, Omar. Welcome everybody. Over the past months, we have continued to deliver on the strategy presented at the Capital Markets Day, and our result confirm a steady execution. Indeed, in the first half, EBITDA and net income increased by 3% year-on-year, reaching respectively EUR 11.8 billion and EUR 3.9 billion, in line with our expectations. Due to the contribution of our activities in Spain and Latin America, we have been able to offset the impact of the Italian Energy Decree, as Stefano will detail later on. The strategic turnaround has improved the quality and the visibility of our earnings, reducing our exposure to market volatility. Growth continues to come from stronger underlying business performance. At the same time, we are moving forward with both brownfield and greenfield investment, while maintaining strict financial discipline.
The focus on execution drove a 5% increase in earnings per share so far at EUR 0.40. This result allow us to expect full year EPS at the top end of our guidance range. Let me now turn to our execution and the progress of our asset turnaround. Our ACAs comes from Tier 1 countries and more than 90% from regulated secured business with a low-risk profile. Let me now show our progress in capital allocation across both greenfield and brownfield investment. Greenfield investment increased by 14%, especially in Tier 1 countries. Networks remain our main focus, and the strong expansion of RAB up by EUR 4.4 billion year-on-year, further improves visibility on future growth. In renewables, capital allocation remain disciplined. We continue to select in project with secure earnings, supported by PPAs or a solid customer base.
New capacity is progressing in line with the expectation with 3 GW currently in execution. Regarding brownfield opportunities, since the beginning of the year, we have signed agreements to expand our asset base. This transaction will add 1.5 GW of renewable capacity and 350,000 customers. In addition, we are evaluating 15 GW of further opportunities, out of which 15%-20% in advanced stage of negotiation. Let's move to value creation. In this month, we are addressing the new phase of our strategic plan with a clear focus on growth. Our investment plan is well on track. We've continued to increase shareholder remuneration with EUR 6.6 billion returned through dividend and share buybacks. At the same time, we maintained a comfortable net debt to EBITDA ratio at 2.6x . Due to this, the 6% EPS growth for 2026 is already secured without considering any contribution of further shares buyback or acquisition.
I now hand over to Stefano, who will give you more details on our first half results.
Thank you, Flavio, and good evening to all of you. I will start giving some highlights about our business results. As in the last release, we have segregated the trading and wholesale segment results because this activity that maintain its proper relevance is now in a completely different shape when compared to the past. As you know, our focus has shifted to an energy management model where commodities contracts, trading positions, and related derivatives are no longer the end game. They are instrumental to our core business. That is to build and manage power capacity, generate, distribute, and sell energy and adjacent services to our final customers.
2026 is the year where this discontinuity is pivotal in the results, given the expiration of the last 2022/2023 huge position, matching commodities, contracts, and derivatives with our generation. This means that now we have 100% of the production potentially devoted to our final customers, and the generation supply is now 100% an end-to-end integrated value chain. To be consistent when moving to the financial results and help our stakeholders to share this evolution, we will release some additional financial data about the composition of the Global Generation and Trading unit, where the trading and wholesale results is accounted. This will not represent an adjustment of previous year results, and in order to favor the best potential acknowledgment, we have also eliminated any adjustment, for example, as we did in the first quarter. The numbers are clear and are the same of last year.
We will just segregate these trading and wholesale figures from the unit that is called Global Generation and Trading. We will publish all the details you may need in order to better understand the presentation and the business results that we are now commenting into this new landscape. Before moving ahead in the presentation, we want to underline that in the first half, the EBITDA conversion into net income reached 33%, and net income share on full-year target achieved 55% of the full-year results. In terms of target, when we refer to target in this part of the presentation, we refer to the target without any potential movement from the basic figure. To give more color, more strategic overview at the business dynamics, and having clarified the net of trading perimeter, I think it's better to move on to page eight.
Here we can appreciate how the first half delivery improved the quality and the visibility of our organic growth. First block is the distribution business that confirmed a double-digit EBITDA expansion, reaching EUR 4.8 billion and a 10% growth year-on-year, approximately EUR 400 million. This consistent trend, boosted by a continued expansion of CapEx and RAB, further enhanced the share of our group's margin that stood in the six months at 41%, another step up of three percentage points compared to last year. Second block, the generation supply business shows a very similar trend when excluding the trading wholesale segment. A reshaped international portfolio is the driver of the EUR 600 million EBITDA growth. A very positive performance if we consider the persistent headwinds like the ancillary services in Spain or the curtailment, especially in South America.
Finally, we want to highlight the marginal exposure related to the trading and wholesale segment. That accounts for just three percentage points of the group's EBITDA, minus six percentage points when compared to last year. Let's now move into the business highlights. I start this section with the integrated margin evolution, and with the geographical description of the results that I think is better considering also what we were referring about headwinds, curtailment, in order to comment the group results. Starting from the top of the slide, we have LATAM, where the growth has been supported by the additional build capacity and by the improved hydro generation Colombia. As I said before, we want to highlight that the persistent curtailment in Brazil offset improved price scenario also in the northeast of the country where we have a significant portion of our capacity. It's pretty good news.
Unfortunately, the curtailment is not allowing us to take benefits in this moment of this trend in the market. In Chile, the poor hydro production in the second quarter was compensated in the six months, as you already saw in the first three months, by the long-term gas contract optionality. In Iberia, the new integrated value chain that was introduced recently, that coupling the retail volumes with renewables and nuclear production resulted into a reshaped and more profitable sourcing model based on a best to best flexible matching of the generation and supply profiles. In the commercial side, the recent we started in March with this action, exiting some well-identified and costly, also ineffective push sales channels whose acquisition quality is not in line with our ambition.
On top of that, we have a supportive regulation of the island generation that paved the way also to future higher investment with a fair RAB remuneration. We are talking about real RAB, is not a RAB-like as somebody said in the past. Finally, in Italy, the poor hydro resources availability offset the recent spot price upside. On the other hand, the retail business stabilized its trend, thanks to the increasing adoption of fixed price offering, representing a mutually convenient hedging from the spot price spike. I will comment this trend also in the following slide. I'm on page 10 of the presentation. As said before, the new energy model paradigm protects both sides of the value chain from exogenous and unpredictable events that turn into price volatility.
In this context, fixed offerings shield both customers and suppliers, allowing for a secure sourcing cost and for mutually fair, affordable, sustainable, and secure price for the final customer. Looking at the trend of the average fixed price in the last four years, you may see that after the spike observed in 2022 and 2023, customers were repositioned, enjoying a 14% average reduction. That means a 40% reduction if we start from 2022 and we land on 2026. A relevant portion of this reduction was sustained through the sourcing efficiencies with the matching that I'm trying to make clear that is a real concrete structural, and fundamental change in the story of the energy management of this group.
Thanks to our generation, we can now maintain the price of the customers unchanged independently from the present, for example, short-term spike that is happening in Italy in these last three months. Why we can maintain this price? Because the sourcing is made through our generation. For me, it's important to stabilize the pricing, having a fair and mutual benefit in terms of pricing, but especially in terms of ability to offset any potential change in the market condition. Our competitor, for example, if you look at the pricing of the recent offer, also from the more aggressive, they were around EUR 150 just for the energy component. This is exactly the price that they have to pay in order to source the energy that they will sell to the fixed customers they want to acquire. I say this because what is the positive and visible return for the company?
Not a spike in the margin, but a spike in the average lifetime of the contracts of the customers that increased two years from three to five years. This was a result of a dramatic reduction in the churn that moved from more than 30% in 2024 to below 20% in 2026. This month, it's also continuing to improve. Again, this is a specific situation that we have today when we have an additional benefit when compared to the other players in the market. Let's now move to the grids. The EBITDA here reached EUR 4.8 billion, as I said before, increasing 10% versus the same period of last year, and accounting for 41% on the total of the group. If we look at the evolution for the geographies, in Italy, it's a clear example of what we consider consistent and resilient. We continue to increase the CapEx.
Now we have a single-digit change. What is really important in Italy is that we are improving strongly the RAB expansion, because as you may remember, I commented before, when you make a mix where you eliminate, for example, the grants that clearly are positive because you have the reimbursement, you have a margin, let's say single-digit margin, up to 10% margin, but zero of that amount moving to the RAB. When I move from grants into normal, let me say, CapEx, this make a completely different change in terms of RAB. Also, because I already closed the gap between the RAB-IN/RAB-OUT. Talking about the RAB-OUT, this is exactly what we expect to happen in Spain, where we have, let me say, a vegetative RAB in the last years. You may see EUR 11.4 billion, EUR 11.5 billion, EUR 11.3 billion.
A new cycle has already started, in this quarter, we do not see the benefit, let me say, that we expect moving forward. In this quarter, we are starting this new cycle investment, but you have also to consider that what sometimes we consider one-off, is not just a one-off, because if you look inside the one-off, you see that this one-off is related to a positive change into the regulation. You have the recovery of some previous year results, that is, let me say, one-off. You have also to look inside, and you see that you have a benefit when compared to the rest for a structural improvement as, for example, the Factor X recent change. In LATAM, when we see Colombia, let me say, are very happy to see how this country can be resilient. Also, in terms of the grids.
Brazil has been very positive because of the tariff adjustment related to inflation. We increased the investment by 30% when compared to last year, and this also have a positive benefit to the RAB. What is important in Brazil is that these are, let me say, book value that are right for us. This compose the famous financial asset at the end of the concession, so it is real value, but we have to transform this value into cash in the next quarters. The RAB, as you may see, have reached approximately EUR 50 billion, that, as we know, this increased strongly the resilience and visibility of the EBITDA moving forward. We are talking about, let me say, as you see, more than 40% of our present EBITDA.
Moving into the next slide, we see that the CapEx that are one of the booster of the RAB-OUT of the EBITDA growth, have reached EUR 3.5 billion. EUR 0.6 billion in Brazil, 30% growth, EUR 2.2 billion in Italy, where you know the story of the investment for the resilience, the quality, and the development of the network is a story that now a four-year story. As you may see in the right side part of the slide, you see how we reach with a consistent growth in the CapEx, the EUR 4.5 billion that we expect for these years. What is important, that in the six months with EUR 2.2 billion of CapEx into the Italian network, we have already realized what was the average investment in the five year from 2018 to 2022.
I quickly show you the earning per share evolution before diving into the cash flow dynamics. The earning per share growth is supported by a sound industrial operational business, with a strong delivering and also a partial execution of the share buyback, both at Enel S.p.A. and at subsidiary level. These remarkable results in the first half represent 54% of the target for the full year and allow us to expect an earning per share for 2026 landing at EUR 0.74, corresponding to the high end of the guidance range. Looking at the evolution for 2026, it is important to underline that this result will be based from now to the end of the year, purely on organic growth, driven by the consistent delivery of our investment plan and the strategy set to enhance the value of our existing asset base.
To summarize in numbers, the 2026 full year net income expectation will also exceed the 5% growth year-over-year set at the Capital Markets Day, positioning us in the high end of the range. With the already executed share buyback for enhancing the earnings per share accretion by 200 basis points. This is something that you will also see today. This is a translation of the difference of the growth between net income and earnings per share that will be replaced in this year, 200 basis points at June, 200 basis points at December, because we are now considering a scenario where the share buyback at Enel S.p.A. is what we have already realized.
We are not imagined to change any of the EUR 1.5 billion remaining, but in this moment, we are planning the remaining part of the year with the existing and executed EUR 2.0 billion of the share buyback. This mean that brownfield contribution and this additional share buyback, not only at Enel S.p.A., because also Endesa have residual, as you can see in the annex program, of share buyback that this part, as we stated clearly in the Capital Markets Day plan of both Endesa and Enel, that can further expand the growth potential ahead of 2026. As promised before, I will move into the cash flow and net debt dynamics. The cash generation continue to be strong with the recurring free cash flow standing at EUR 6.1 billion, implying a cash conversion higher than 50%.
That is solid if we consider the seasonal dynamics on CapEx that we observe all the year in the sector and in Enel at the group level. The recurring cash flow generated by the business, net of taxes and financial cost, cover the CapEx of the period for EUR 1.1 billion exceeding that are serving part of the shareholder remuneration that is compound by EUR 1.5 billion executed the share buyback and EUR 2.9 billion dividends. What is important in this result is that we have a significant FX impact of EUR 1.2 billion. This is important to remind that we are not adjusting this value, as it happens sometimes in other part of the Europe. We have to consider this as technically speaking, it's called held to maturity, this EUR 1.2 billion that also include the leasing, will not exist.
It means that there are temporary impacts of especially coverage in terms of FX and variable fixed interest rate that, as is in our history also, when we repay our debt at the maturity, this will completely disappear. Our net debt is EUR 60 billion. This is part of the accounting rules of the IFRS. We have informed the market that including this component, our debt is EUR 61 billion. In this cash flow, we have the first impact, let's say, the financial one of the Energy Decree, and we have prepared, in the last page of the presentation, page 15, an update, because we know that is considered a really important item.
We have put into this slide the slide of the Capital Markets Day, that we pass all the night preparing for the market, and the update regarding the part of the decree that is already clear and active. If we start from the ATS offset, as underlined in the Energy Decree, this measure is provided for 2027. The impact on 2026 would have been zero in any case. As you probably know, currently, there are analysis ongoing at EU and national level to define the measure that will not consist in the exact ATS offset, but will maintain the final goal that is to smooth the energy price in Italy also for the ATS component. What is important to keep in mind that in our plan assumption, we have already embedded a severe potential impact of the Energy Decree.
If you remember, it was three EUR 0.03 in the EPS. Only related to these items. It was the first block of the bridge. The measure related to the early payment of system charges was expected, as you may see in the comparison between the Capital Markets Day presentation, the actuals, at EUR 800 million. The effective imbalance, as you may see, is higher at EUR 1.2 billion. This is not because we made a mistake in the cash flow, but because in the transformation, the decree into law, there was added the component of the ASOS, the so-called ASOS, that is the system charges collected to support renewables. Finally, the IRAP has projected and expected impacted for EUR 0.1 billion approximately, both on debt and on the reported net income.
For next year, regarding these items that are referred more to the financial side of the measures, we expect to have a total impact on the debt ranging from EUR 1.6 billion-EUR 1.8 billion, because the system charge do not depend just by the number of customers and so on, depend also by the movement that we have in the component of the price that is not defined by us, but by the regulatory watchdog. This will be component by the EUR 800 million that we already projected, the EUR 400 million that are two years, 2026 and 2027, of the additional two percentage point on the IRAP, the regional tax. The green block is what we may expect that at the moment is EUR 400 million.
We have made, let me say, a range coming from a potential change of the other system charges that are now in June representing the EUR 1.2 billion impact that I already commented. What is important is to clarify two points. These impact are on the stock of the debt and are, let me say, a one-off, because they are not a recurring cash flow impact. This means that our free cash flow in 2027 will not be affected by EUR 1.2 impact of the system charges advanced payment, because this happened just one time in the first year of adoption. Next year, we will have a higher debt of EUR 1.2 billion, but the cash flow will be not affected by this movement because we will anticipate the payment in 2026 or 2027.
In 2027, we will have the benefit of not having to pay 2x the charges coming to the final photography of the impact. Second, this impact of EUR 1.6 billion do not include any about the 2027 measures that are the recurring one, because they, in the intention of the measure, will impact the market prices. Will become, let me say, recurrent, and we will not consider this one-off or not ordinary, et cetera. At the moment, we are talking about and referring about the 2026 impact that are just financial. With this long discussion about a very relevant topic, I hope to have any doubt in your comprehension of the Energy Decree impact at this moment. I can now hand over to the CEO for some closing remarks.
Thank you, Stefano. Let's now move to the closing remarks. As I said before, our results are solid and supported by strong underlying business performance and high-quality earnings mix. Financial flexibility continues to support growth and allow us to capture additional value accretive brownfield opportunities. The quality and visibility of our result allow us to expect a full year 2026 EPS at the top end of our guidance range. Thank you for your attention, and let's now open the Q&A session.
We thank you, our CEO. Let's now open the Q&A session. We receive a lot of question, we summarize by topic. Let's start with the most strategic question that will be answered by our CEO. The first one, let's start with concession. What's the latest news on the concession renewal of Hydro and distribution networks?
Well, in Italy, the distribution concession process is clearly defined by the law. The process is moving forward, and we have not particularly concerned. Regarding hydro, we simply need to wait for the appropriate time. I'd like to remind you, the spike of our hydro concession will be in 2029. For give you an example, the currently action for the other operators are ongoing on micro concession expired 10 years ago.
Thank you. Let's move to Brazil. Could you please provide us color on the process for São Paulo concession and your view on Brazil in general?
Well, over the past year, we have significantly improved our service quality indicators defined by the local authority, ANEEL. Passing from 31st in December 2023 to 26th ranking in May 2026. We've delivered on every commitment defined by the Brazilian government. We have proposed two solution to solve the blackout problem: underground the cables or allow more extensive tree trimming. In São Paulo, cables run through the trees, and the local rules don't allow us to trim more than 25% of the existing trees. That is not enough. At the same time, the issue is political. Brazil has been in a continuous election cycle. Local election last year, presidential election this year, this situation affects the process, of course. We remain in close dialogue with the Brazilian government. Take in mind, the local authority is involved only as advisor of minister.
Moreover, the process refers only to the concession and not to the São Paulo company. It's important to underline two concept. First, our RAB is fully protected. Second, you have to consider the value of the company not included in the RAB. We are talking about assets such as software, equipment, backup generators, inventories, spare parts in a big numbers. At the same time, we continue discussion with the local authority. Moreover, as recently highlighted by the government, there is also an issue on Brazilian credibility for international investment. We remain confident. A balanced solution is achievable. Our objective remain the same, a fair outcome for all parties. Simple.
Thank you. Let's move now to brownfield opportunities. Can you give us some color on the timeline and the size of the deal you're evaluating?
As I said before, about 15 GW on brownfield asset are currently on the market. We can secure around 15%-20% of this pipeline. Brownfield, in every meeting, also in our Capital Markets Day, we said is an important driver for growth. Over the past year, we delivered on every commitment we made. We intend to do exactly the same on M&A, remaining disciplined.
Thank you. Share buyback. Enel share buyback has been approved for EUR 1.5 billion. Any detail on the timing?
The buyback is well on track. We've already completed part of the program, not all. Remaining portion will be, this portion will be executed based on market condition as previously communicated.
Thank you. Going back to Italy. Given the recent evolution of the discussion on energy price in Italy and the Energy Decree, could you please share your view?
Well, the public debate often creates a misunderstanding between the wholesale and the retail price. The two aren't the same. The final monthly bill for residential customers is broadly in line with the European level, as reported by Eurostat for 2025. We are an integrating operator. We generate electricity and supply directly to our customers. Most of our residential customer are on fixed price contract. They aren't affected by short-term movement in wholesale electricity prices. The fixed offers are the umbrella for market volatility and international price shocks while maintaining, stable, our marginality. This is the deal.
Thank you. Let's now move to question for the CFO. Stefano. Working capital deterioration from first quarter, what is expected level for year-end?
As always, the change of the working capital in the first nine months, let's say this way, the first, the second, and the third quarter, reflects the typical seasonal trends that we observe every year in this part of the release. Mainly associated with the dynamics on CapEx spending and inventories. To make a long story short, we often answer this question, and each of the previous three year, working capital normalized in Q4 as promised by the company. Not to say that somebody has to trust in me or in the finance department, but this is a usual regarding seasonality that has already been observed in the last, as a minimum, four years, three years. This is the fourth.
Thank you, Stefano. Can you provide us the expected moving parts to get to your net debt for 2026?
Yes. Let's make it very simple. I will have EUR 15 billion, so you have the final figure from the EUR 15 billion approximately of regarding FFO. This means EUR 9 billion more of the first half. That is more or less in line with last year. If you remember, we have EUR 14.8 billion, and at this stage, we have EUR 6 billion. Nothing changing, a consistent and resilient utility. This is not so simple because we have, let me say, CapEx. We have already spent EUR 5 billion. We have some changes. We will expect to spend EUR 7 billion.
There is a moving part of EUR 1 billion approximately that is represented by the first impact of the growth acceleration of the leverage, because if the timing will be confirmed, we will start to have in the last months of the fourth quarter, probably the first closing of the brownfield acquisition, and we're talking about $1.5 billion. This will not have an impact on the economic results, let's say, EBITDA, nor financial cost, because we are talking about just one year. In the stock of the debt, and in the CapEx flow, we will have probably $1.5 billion related to the already released and signed brownfield operation. Let's suppose EUR 13 billion-EUR 13.5 billion of CapEx. We will again have EUR 1.5 billion of positive FFO minus CapEx.
What this is that in the second part of the year, we will have the same amount of shareholder remuneration, but with EUR 500 million that move from one block to another. We will have more dividends and less share buyback. Instead of having EUR 1.5 billion of share buyback, we would have one expected share buyback, not regarding Enel S.p.A., and EUR 2.8 billion dividend payments. The huge portion of this it's already been paid by us in this month. We are already on July, sorry. What we have on top of this, we can say almost nothing. The FX impact, in this bridge, I've not considered any change. We have the negative impact.
If you start from June, you may use the EUR 60 billion or the EUR 61 billion as you prefer. The net cash flow will be, I repeat, EUR 15 billion approximately of FFO, EUR 13 billion-EUR 14 billion of CapEx, EUR 4.5 billion of dividends. We have the reversal of the hybrid bonds because if you start from June, you have to consider that in June we have a positive impact on the hybrids of approximately EUR 700 million-EUR 800 million because of the timing difference of the issue of the new bond and the repayments of the previous emission at maturity. This accounts for approximately EUR 800 million. I will not make the sum so you can enjoy. We are talking about something that if you look at including the FX impact, is in the range of EUR 64 billion-EUR 65 billion debt.
Thank you, Stefano. Now let's move.
Don't ask me about the EBITDA bridge.
Right. That is a nice question.
Okay.
Now let's move to EBITDA. Can you provide the building blocks to bridge your EBITDA target by region?
EBITDA, it's easier because I'm not joking. The utility should have, let me say, more or less the same amount of EBITDA. We have some seasonality FX in the power, you know that the second quarter, for example, is very low. If I tell you that we will have the same dynamics in the second part of the year, this is exactly what we expect to happen, especially if you look at the first half and the second half. If you look at 2025, you may have some impact related to marginal, let's say, one-off that I don't consider one-off, that are seasonal accounting items that if I have, let me say, an agreement with the authority that enter EUR 100 million per year and I account one year in the first quarter and one in the fourth quarter, you will have a difference in analyzing the bi-quarter results.
What we see that Italy is totally resilient, and now also in the commercial side. I will answer also the question about the hydro in Italy, probably because we are already accounted in my projection of before that we will not have the same water condition that we have, for example, two years ago. We expect to have a 2027 that will restart from a normalized position. These are the weather condition that my expert tell me that will probably characterize the results. Some negatives in the renewables in Italy compensated by a very positive trends from the commercial side, not because we are increasing prices, but because we are retaining good customers. In Spain, we will have a very positive second half, differing from what somebody expect, because as I say, it's not just one-off.
Clear in some of the items, for example, the one-off of the previous year agreement for the islands cannot be, let me say, double. If you take the EBITDA of the first half and you multiply for two, the figure that we expect is not much far from this value, because the portion of the one-off may be offset by the growth of the operating business portfolio. In LATAM, we expect a recovery from Chile and Brazil in the integrated margin because the performance was not so good due to weather hydro condition and as I said before, the pricing, the market scenario is very supportive in this. Colombia, we will continue to be resilient in the second half.
Argentina, who knows, we have a very important discussion about the recognition of some components related to the previous agreement we made on the debt and the receivable that are with the local authority and with the government for what we have not been paid in the last three years. This could be a very important topic in the fourth quarter. What else? Networks, as I said before, multiply by two and I already tell you the number in the first quarter release, and I confirm that number, maybe some EUR 100 million more, or it was EUR 9.6 billion , EUR 9.7 billion, if I'm not wrong. EUR 9.6 billion, EUR 9.7 billion. Add EUR 100 million in this range. Let's say EUR 9.6 billion, EUR 9.8 billion. Now, you have a midpoint that increase something.
In order to take account also of the partial one-off that we have observed that part of this in the first quarter was not. Again, as of the [F4], you can now not call the Investor Relations development because you have all the information you may need.
That's right. I think also we covered all the questions.
About the hydro, probably. Yes
the hydro.
What we have to consider in the hydro that the diversification impact that the rating agencies love, if you are diversifying in two countries that are Tier 1 or Tier 2 at maximum. For example, we have in Europe, one of the worst reserves in Italy, and we have one, probably the best year in the last 10 in Spain. As always, what is good of being a big and diversified also geographically utility is that you can compensate some negatives, temporary FX with the positive ones.
Thank you, Stefano. Let's move to regulation of this one. WACC reset for Italy is expected by year-end. Which is the level of WACC expected at the moment?
This question, you know that we are Italian, we don't love to talk about something that may happen or not, depending also on something that do not depend on us. Last year, for example, everybody was already considering a 30 basis point reduction. Nothing happened because the inflection that was used, arrived to a figure that was for one basis point in the range. At this moment, you know that the 30 basis point is again the central scenario. This year we may have some good news coming from the spread between Bund and the BTP. The scenario I have to tell you that is a calculation, is 30 basis point more or less. We are again in the borderline.
What is important that the figure I already heard more than EUR 100 million, you know that we have always a plan. We never put the figure that the maximum potential when it's positive, and we consider the maximum potential when in negative in order to prepare the recovery plan. We have some inflation positive recovery in the OpEx, et cetera, the impact will not be trivial number in terms of EUR. If this happens, we are talking about something that is more or less in a half of what I have heard, about EUR 120 million, something like this. It doesn't change the history of the network at Enel in Italy because, as you see, the opportunity that we have in terms of RAB expansion and additional CapEx return is something that will not make us change the trajectory for 30 basis point of WACC.
Thank you, Stefano. Now let's talk about retail. Are you concerned about Italian retail business? Could competition erode margins or lead to customer losses? Do you see any risk for regulatory intervention?
The risk of regulatory intervention is always there, but let me say, what is important in retail that it's very easy to check what are the price position of the different players. In the last, now is from March, April, let's say April, Enel is the most competitive player in the market because this was also a choice that we made in order to secure and to reduce the share. We could make this, let me say, decision without having any negative impact on the margins, as I said before. When we talk about margin, let's consider that what you listen sometimes is not a margin. I call it spread because we have a lot of cost.
Means that the calendar change, the calendar are based on, when we have to source the small business customer that we are not in the condition to source in Italy with our energy. You probably remember my bridge when I say the business-to-consumer customer. We have the profile and the shape of the consumption of the customers that change this based on the approach we have in the past, and this is a cost. The share has reduced, I have some gigawatt more to be covered, to be hedged. If I am not safe and I don't have my buffer as the hydro that works in the past, sold without having still the weather projection. In this sense, we do not have any negative impact in this year for buying back the energy that we have already sold at the lower price.
Coming back to the retail, again, the spread is not so high as you can imagine. The recent price move of our competitor is really important to understand what is the spread. You have to consider that there is a cost to serve. When you are a company like Enel, you have a cost to serve that is higher than the digital player, is higher than the newcomers. Where we compete is not just the price, but it's the multi-bundle offer. It's the loyalty programs, is the customer care that we have is different. You see that the basic offer of one of the most famous digital player is that after one year, you move into an index and offer that today means more than EUR 200. This is the basic one.
We do not have this price, the contractual provision in any of our contract because our interest is to maintain the customers into the fixed offer price that we have decided based on the industrial cost of our production. Again, the price will be reduced in the future? Yes, probably yes, because the marginal price have to be the price that equal the LCOE of the marginal technology. That will not be in the next three years, the nuclear that is more than EUR 150.
We have something that, as I said sometimes before, also in the presentation, that is to disintermediate the wholesale spot price, we have the opportunity to match the generation and demand profiles that allow a reduction of the cost of sourcing of the customers, and the negative spread that you have when you have to inject in the network energy at lunchtime, that is in Italy, I remember, the highest hourly price that you have in the offer of all the competitors, because in the past, the pricing was following the consumption. When you charge a car in Spain at midtime, you pay more than EUR 400 per Megawatt because of the cost of the value chain. That energy is paid into the wholesale market zero , EUR 10.
Between the EUR 310, there is all the opportunity to have a fair price for the final customers and an optimization of the generation fleet from the producer. This is called flexibility, and this will be the future that we are already starting to implement at Enel.
Thank you, Stefano, for the analysis. Let me double-check if there is some more question. Yeah, last one. Share buyback at subsidiary level, what's the strategic rationale?
Okay. The strategic rationale is that we have a company that have, let me say, a net financial position, net financial leverage that is not optimized. We have the opportunity to make industrial investment, buying back part of our invested capital. Clearly, the price have to be fair, but if I look at what we have already realized, at Enel, we have EUR 8.7 buyback average price, but at Endesa, we have EUR 30, so we are more than 30% discount or return, as you prefer, compared to the price. We consider that also EUR 40 is not the fair value of the company because you have a lot of resources there that in the future may be used to create more value. You know that they have some renewables and nuclear. They have more than double the energy that we generate in Italy, excluding the thermal.
They have the networks that is, in terms of growth, becoming a new phase. Again, in Enel Américas, we are confident of the Brazilian concession resolution. We buy back the share with a multiple of 3.5x. Enel Américas has just one debt that will repay in the forthcoming months, that is the $600 million bond. Remember that when we realized the first buyback, they have a net financial position that was positive, already paying an extraordinary dividend. We have also to look at this part of the group debt, how it is split in the different regions.
Thank you for the clarification. There are no more questions, so the Q&A session is over. We cover all the main topics. If something is missing, the IR team is available for follow-ups after the call. Thanks to everybody.
Thank you, and see you soon. Bye-bye.