A good morning, welcome to Enel Capital Market Day 2026. Thank you everyone here in the room and to people connected online. I'm here today with Enel CEO, Mr. Flavio Cattaneo, and CFO, Mr. Stefano De Angelis. May I have the agenda, please? Our CEO will drive through the plan strategy, while the CFO will go deeper in financials. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. Let me hand over to Mr. Cattaneo, please.
Thank you, Omar, and welcome to our 2026 Capital Market Day. Let me start with the result we have delivered so far. Over the past year, we have executed all the strategic actions we committed to, delivering on every single target. The turnaround of the asset portfolio has been completed. Financial discipline has restored flexibility and improved. into net income has improved, reaching 30%. EBITDA increased by 5% per year and EPS by 9% per year. So far, we have implemented all the action needed to improve group performance. Today, we present the next chapter of our strategy, built on a proven track record and on our ability to recover. We're building this new plan and delivery. Indeed, during this mandate, our market capitalization increased by almost 50%- of the Energy Decree.
Shareholders through dividend and share buyback, as promised. We promised, we delivered. What we're showing today is achievable. We move on on the energy contest before focusing on the strategic drivers of our plan. Our vision is based on a trend of structural long-term growth in global power demand, mainly driven by data center and AI, electric mobility, robotics, automation, and industrial recovery. This is a global trend, actually, a growth will be different by geography and timing. It's crucial to be fast in anticipating and exploiting local accelerations. This is why we are ready to deploy investment at the right time. Some areas are already showing in U.S., for example, power demand. Once electrification starts, the change is sudden and fast.
Our industrial vision is to increase investment in renewable generation just before markets accelerate, quickly adapting our moves to market cycles. In fact, the growing gaps between supply and demand in some markets will generate value creation opportunity for us. Being the first mover will catch two remarkable goals at once: improve our marginality and enhance our asset value. Indeed, we'll mostly leverage on brownfield opportunities with a faster time to market, as are demonstrated by the recent acquisition of asset in U.S. for about 80, 50 MW. Why we think the market is mature? As you probably know, some utilities have already communicated the start of a robust asset rotation phase. Additionally, private equity funds are also starting to rebalance their asset portfolios. Given this evolution, and considering our financial flexibility, we're in the best position to capture the maximum value.
Now, let's to the deep dive into our plan, please. Today, we'll present our strategy for the next 3 year, 3 years and a 5-year pathway. We've already taken into account the full potential impact of the Energy Decree in Italy. On this matter, Stefano will give you more detail later on. Going forward, all the news will be either positive or neutral. Having said that, we'll start. As you know, our habit is to go ahead and maintain our targets. As I said before, now we're ready to accelerate growth, supported by our financial flexibility. We'll optimize productivity by improving capital allocation and generating further efficiencies. In addition, we'll focus our investment in opportunity with visible returns. This will allow us to improve our EPS profile while maintaining our strict finance or financial discipline. Now, we move into capital allocation. Slide 10.
In our previous plan, the need to reduce debt and achieve a robust balance sheet was the priority. Today, we're moving to the next chapter. Now, after the financial flexibility, we're focusing on growth, maintaining a solid level of leverage, for sure, below sector average. As you can see from the slide, financial flexibility will be allocated to brownfield to quickly expand the asset base where opportunities arise, reduce the execution risk, and accelerating time to EBITDA. Selective greenfield asset in renewable and grids, last but not least, shareholder remuneration. Moving on to our CapEx plan. As you can appreciate, cumulative investment are now EUR 53 billion, increasing EUR 10 billion versus previous plan. In renewables, we'll allocate the capital according to returns, always selecting project with a secured earnings profile through long-term PPA or covered by our customer base.
We'll invest also on customers to reduce the churn and increase loyalty. As a consequence of these actions, all the industrial KPIs improved, the predictability of our result is comparable, if not higher, to a pure infrastructures company. Value creation going forward is visible, also due to our low risk profile. In this slide, you can appreciate our capital allocation and strategic choices ensure over 90% of our cumulative EBITDA remain protected and visible. As I mentioned before, all the impact coming from the decree have been already factoried. This is reflected also in our FFO, more than 80% denominated in euro and U.S. dollar, significantly reducing a cash generation risk. For sure, we can't overlook efficiencies. The result of our action are already visible. We have been able to execute it, the 2023 efficiency plan, one year in advance.
Last year, we raised the bar. Now we're retargeting a 25% increase compared to the 2022 baseline. Efficiency are front loaded and will enhance our profitability. On efficiency, we'll leverage also on AI, AI adoption, with 100% of application cloud-based and all core processes digitalized. Another level of value creation is data centers. As I already said, one driver of higher demand will be data center. Being a key integrated player in different country, we have a remarkable competitive advantage. Indeed, we can offer data centers operator ready to build site and a fast permitting process. Like other European players, we not only sell infrastructures, but we can also offer connection with PPA included. We have already identified eight strategic location. Some of them are ongoing. Now, let's move to our customer strategy.
We are focusing on, selling not but also other services, for example. To increase the value of our, we are able to. The more risk involved. Launched LENE, a user-friendly digital company. As a consequence, this new commercial strategy will boost customers' value and reduce risk. Now we move to our plan target for the next three years. As a result of all this action, we expect to achieve a further re-rating in the group performance. Looking ahead, result will continue to grow at sustainable rate. The rate will increase at the CAGR of 7% versus 2025 restated. In any case, you can appreciate that even considering the worst case scenario, at the end of the plan horizon, we'll reach an EPS in the range of EUR 0.80-EUR 0.82. Let me now hand over to Stefano for a deeper financial.
View results in order to... The visibility. A series of... That negative amounts of EUR 100 million. The government suppose the, let me say, subsidy, subsidy scheme for the, for the operator that was now reintroduced in 2020. Late to 2025. As José Bogas remember very well each day, we have the 2 times growth of the ancillary services bill in Spain, that have a fantastic bill of more than EUR 200 million, not just for Endesa, but for all the player of similar size. Not being enough, we've also a very negative here in term of hydro performance of hydro ECD. Also in, in Chile, where the reaction, radical change in... EUR 0.5 billion of this model. Reaction that we have today, actions is a performance achieved in, so that was a growth of 9%.
The start, let's say, in this way, because I see a lot of adjusted performance here. Let me say 9% growth, I want to underline, because talking to you sometimes, I understand that it's not probably so clear that we were the unique of presenting, let me say, a high single digit growth in the last 3 years in terms of everything, reducing our net debt. We moved from 60... In the depth of approx... This was a result of several action. Here, some of the most probably relevant multiple. During the termination, the completion of the disposal plan, we find here that was launched in 2022. We were the... Is that slide, please, probably? Oh, no, no, no, sorry, sorry. There was a little gentle reminder. The.
When we look at the shape of our portfolio, for example, you may remember the focus that the company have on analytics, products, and services. Now, you may see that we have completely reshaped that portfolio. We experienced a financial, a relevant financial drain from that activities. Now, the portfolio is completely moved on core business and core geographies. The efficiency plan was, as you remember, front-loaded. We are now launching a second stage, and we are calling not efficiency, but productivity. Part of these programs was achieved. Here we have Mr. Ciurli, thanks to a strong reduction on ICT cost, more than 30%, and achieved not only cutting cost on CapEx, but with a shift to the AI software solution in a clear cloud-native platforms.
That will be the base for the next stage of the productivity plan, because this is something that is progressing. Important here is that we do not make the results using the saving as part of the EBITDA. We use this money to increase the size of the investment. The result was result made from investment, not from saving. You may see that the, in the Capital Market Day 2022, the company approved a, a CapEx plan of EUR 37 billion. Now we are approving a CapEx plan of EUR 53 billion, and this will be the boost of our growth that we are presenting today, and this is the result, and we are in the condition to present this CapEx plan because of this action that was made each day by also the, the person that are here with me.
It was very tough. We wanted to present a very fantastic plan today, with the decree, unfortunately, we have to spend some times again in trouble. The growth that you may see in the slide, on page 22, is a growth based on three stages. The one is the growth that we was presenting last year, there is the overperformance that we realized. You remember that in 2025, we have an overperformance in the net income when we look at the guidance. There is the trigger of the EUR 15 billion of releverage, this is distributed EUR 10 billion in growth acceleration, capital expenditures, part of this in brownfield, part of this in greenfield, dedicated to what we expect will be the driver of growth in the future, that is renewable capacity.
EUR 3.5 billion to the share buyback we are performing, and we will start today another step of this, the share buyback of the holding company, Enel S.p.A. We are maybe is progressing in the Endesa share buyback, and we, as you may remember, already performed the share buyback in Enel Americas. Next. What will be the results we are expecting, looking at our business unit and countries with this new plan? We have split the world into Tier 1 regions, networks, integrated margin, and LATAM networks integrated margin. As you may see, we are in full of our potential in terms of CapEx, both for integrated margin, and both for networks in Tier 1. We are full at our speed, at the potential speed that we may use, in LATAM for the networks.
When we move to growth acceleration, as you may see, we are full power into the integrated business, namely the renewable capacity. Great focus in the U.S., where we see the potential for an anticipation of the growth we see in the market. Also, when you see three or four in the networks in Europe, it's also because in Italy, as you know, we are already at full speed in terms of investment, while we expect the Bogas to accelerate beyond 2028. As a result, we will have a balanced growth in terms of EBITDA. We will expect to increase our EBITDA more or less EUR 2 billion in the integrated margin, and EUR 1.2 billion in the networks.
The investment, as you may see, is well, as Flavio was saying before, is well split between networks and integrated margin. Next. More than 75% will be invested in Europe, where I am referring to the networks. Here we have also a focus on Italy, as always, also because the other company that are listed will better explain than me the CapEx plan in the company. What happened in Italy? In Italy, you may see that we had a growth of EUR 7 billion in the RAB, the lower part of the slide. This growth was EUR 6 billion in the previous plan. The question there would be, would be, how much is the network fee?
The network fee is the risk, in this plan is just EUR 1 billion. We have included the industrial CapEx that will transform into RAB. As you may see, the industrial CapEx have a very good shape in terms of transforming into RAB, you have a better performance with the same amount of CapEx. Let me say, we have the risk, the items that we cannot secure, that is the amount of the fee. If, if it would be more, happy, it would be this figure. We are completely okay because we look at the total amount of CapEx and the results in terms of RAB and EBITDA. The reduction in terms of grants is another positive for the RAB. Because the grants do not transform.
We have a marginality on the, on the grants, the, the grants will come back as cash, not as RAB. In the three years of the new plan, we have more than EUR 1 billion of positive effects in terms of RAB transformation for the reduction of the, of the grants. Next. These are the, the CapEx. This is where we have the, let me say, the re-rate of the CapEx. We have EUR 8 billion more of the CapEx in the generation. I think here, Flavio has told you many things relevant. What I can tell you is that we continue to have a very strict financial discipline of this. We don't want, with this target, to move our close metrics of risk balancing approach.
We will continue to look at the basis point, having 200 basis points when we are looking at brownfield, because as I probably told many of you, we adjust this result because we take into account the reduction in terms of risk when you have the plant already built and when you have the PPA already signed, this costs something, we and will reduce approximately 100 basis points. We maintain the 300 basis points in the greenfield. This plan is a plan where we come back to build, let's say, in this way, because now we have the condition in terms of pipeline. We have made a very hard work also on the pipeline to reduce what we're not presenting in the future potentials.
Now, the pipeline is small, but it's very good, and we've now find Safe Harbor, for example, project in USA that we are near to the final investment decision. As a result, you will see the strong growth in terms of terawatt-hours. That is the base of our growth in terms of revenues and EBITDA. Page 26. Please. Here, this is to say, I, I read some of you saying, "When you have brownfield, you do not have the control of the growth." This is not the first deal we made, well, we announced in this last weekend. Just to remind that, for example, in the last 15 months, we made EUR 3 billion of acquisition, and we were not with the same intention that we have today.
As Flavio may remember to you, when we say something, because we are very confident to do it, we participate to a huge number of processes in these months. We continue to be strict as all we are, and we are not in a hurry. This is important. When we look at the presentation of our friends, I talked about the utilities. I see EUR 14 billion, EUR 10 billion of asset rotation. On the other side, we are a potential buyer. My figure is small when compared to them, and you do not see the funds. The funds are rotating a lot of capital, especially in the U.S., where we have big size of investment from the equity funds. The approach is the same, you see in this result. What is important here is the green part of the line.
When we buy something brownfield in U.S., where we experience several problems, we buy contracted NPV. That is what we call secured. This is what we call secured. Not secured because we expect to sell something, it's secured because we have a contract that our friend, Francesco Puntillo, revised very strongly, I can guarantee you. When we arrive to sign, it's really a secured EBITDA and secured cash flow in our plan. Next. Ha! Here we start talking about what we did what happened in the last days. You know that when I was introducing with the other friend, Ceppatelli, the energy manager in the group, we discussed a lot of time about the new, let me say, energy management model.
When now we prefer to sell the energy, not through financial derivatives that we continue to use, but to our retail customers, Francesca Gostinelli. That is where there is the value, because it's not the price that change every day, it's a price that have a fair margin because we have a lot of cost to repay. These customers are resilient. Are resilient because they have a chart that tell you that they stay in the average 60 year in our customer base. In Italy, for example, in Spain also, well, we don't have PPA market. We don't have PPA market. It's very important to leverage on this customer base. This customer base, 70% of them have fixed contract, where the price is an option for the seller.
They have the option to charge now, clearly, so I think it's a fair relation. When you look at the building block of what will happen in terms of volumes of energy we generate, this generate is matched with the existing customers, and the existing customers today start to have two, three years contracts, so it's not just one year now. This is something that Enel plays in the market, but also our competitor. Then you have the charter, so you have the new customers. What does it mean? If you look at the graph in the lower left, this means that we follow slowly the market. We don't follow the market in this way, we follow the market in this way.
You see the gray line, it means that I have a delay because today I signed a contract with some of you, and I use the pricing today, and you have a 1-year mandatory period of the pricing. It's mandatory for me, especially. Remember that the customer is always the, the potential exit of the charter, huh? What happened in, in these days, in the last, let me say, 2 weeks? In the, in the last 2 weeks, we have a, a dramatic change. Look, look at the forward 2027, 2028, and this is important, I've completed. To say, when you Today, the market already embedded, and this started before the decree, a change in the forward scenario.
We have moved into a scenario where we have changed the mind relate to the ETF, not because of us, because of the European community, not just before, because of the Italian government. There is now a clear intention to review the ETS, probably smoothing the growth in the next year. When we was referring to an ETS of 120, 140, now we are referring to a lower level of ETS, this is what we make in our exercise. Sorry, this is the most important for me to explain. Next. The impact you may study, I will not pass through the figures. This is what the IRAP is very easy. It's more or less EUR 150 million per year.
The other, at the end of the day, it's will be, it will be EUR 300 million net income impact in the worst year, that is the 2028. Oh, sorry, in the 2028, we do not have the IRAP, it's very complicated to make this calculation in terms of some. Remember, in 2028, we have EUR 300 million in terms of net income, but we will not have the IRAP impact because it expired the measure in 2027. What is important, we had EUR 2 billion of cash impact. We already introduced some measure in order to reduce this at EUR 1.8 billion. Next, please. This is a plan where we have built each single building blocks. It's not how we will do EUR 10 billion. In this slide, you may study later and ask to Omar.
I try to simplify our plan. That is a plan made by the list of actions, each one of these guys, and also me, and also have, our, you know, duty in order to realize this plan. Here you may see, for example, impacts. I make a description of the greenfield, brownfield target. You see that here we have a specific plant, like the U.S. Safe Harbor, the project we are going to approve in our committee, probably in the next 2 months. We have the BESS that we are building in Chile, and so on. We have a very complex list of action. We have, this is important, the risk, our plan, taking into our figures, the degree.
Because if you look at our plan, one of your question always was: What do you think about the potential change in the pricing in the retail market in Italy? Now, we have assumed a significant reduction of this, because we lost the floor of the ETS. Again, as I said before, we also want to reduce, let me say, the risk, the lack of control we have on the fee in the network, concession, renewal in Italy. Next. The funds allocation, it's easy. It's always the same slide. Approximately EUR 50 billion of generation made by through the FFO. EUR 9 billion coming from also, we have asset rotation.
We have more partnership, because when we buy portfolio of assets, sometimes we have partner that want to stay with us, so it's a sort of partnership that is embedded into the deal. The investment, you know, and the share of the remuneration, Flavio will tell you in 2 minutes, I grant you, what is the dividend policy we are going to apply. The different white box is the increase in debt that is approximately between EUR 15 billion-EUR 20 billion.
Next, please. So far, this counter is a plane, when you take the golf, it's always the same story. We stay into the control, holding control, financial plan. We continue to have a very reduced exposure to variable rates and very reduced exposure to currency that is not euro, and just a portion that is related to the cash flow of our LATAM asset and our U.S. asset. I think that with this one, I have completed, and I can move back to Fabio. It was the last, yes?
Well-
Non ho letto niente, dai,
I see. Thank you, Stefano, for your clear presentation. Well, we are confident to restart and deliver visible returns, and also let me say also completely de-risk this plan. For, for sure, we have today a low-risk profile, a better low-risk profile in comparison with the, the previous one. Our dividend policy remain unchanged. The visibility on 25 give us confidence to propose to the next AGM a DPS of EUR 0.49, four nine. Furthermore, the remaining EUR 2.5 billion on the share buyback program are an additional lever to further enhance shareholder remuneration. As you've seen, we have just launched this morning another EUR 1 billion tranche. Moreover, as you can see in the slide, in 2028, our EPS will be in the range of EUR 0.80-EUR 0.82, and the DPS will grow accordingly.
Now let me show you our trajectory to 2030. As I said before, we're showing here a snapshot of the 5-year trajectory. Looking ahead to 2030, in generation, our renewable capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5%, and our grids regulated asset base will expand a CAGR of 6%. The leverage will remain below peers and will continue to deliver sustainable growth beyond the 3-year horizon, with an EPS CAGR of around 6%. All this maintaining our net zero commitment. Indeed, we have already reduced our total emission by almost 70% since 2017, and we are already close to the target set for 2040. In 2040, 100% of our power generation will be greenhouse gas free.
Our commitment to net zero will also preserve the social and economic context due to our just transition plan. To conclude, some closing remarks. Today, we are presenting a challenging plan, credible and achievable. It's a plan built on to restart and deliver further growth. We will say always overcome challenges. We revised our assumption, we'll deliver once again. Going forward, you receive it only good news. Once again, we're not disappointed you. Let's open with the Q&A session. Please, video.
Thank you. Let's start the Q&A session. Since we are short of time, please keep your question focused on strategic topics, no more than two question each. I will take three analysts in a row. Before asking your question, please stand up, state your name and company name. So, Alberto, Javier, Emanuele.
Thank you. Good morning, Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs. I'll ask two questions. If it's possible, a yes and no from Stefano, so it's 2.1. The first question is, you're obviously using your balance sheet. I can see that most of your CapEx is going towards developed economies. Could you use also a bit more of your emerging market portfolio as a source of funding, as a currency, to accelerate the current strategic vision you presented very clearly today? The second question is, could you tell us the gigawatt which is related to the 8 sites that you are negotiating for data centers? We have seen recent transaction at EUR 1 billion per gigawatt around Europe. I was wondering. The yes or no is, slide 29, you have a waterfall.
This is for Stefano, EPS going to 28. Am I right in assuming that you're using current forward curves and EUR 300 million-EUR 400 million impacts from the Decree? Just yes and no. Sorry.
Sorry, Fabio, then... Okay. Okay. Javier? No, we, we take all the... Javier?
Good morning, Javier Suárez, Mediobanca. Two questions for, for, from me as well. The first one is on slide 27.
When you are showing your expectation on evolution for electricity prices, you could be more specific on the assumptions that you are making on electricity prices in Italy, Spain, and maybe key jurisdictions when building up your business plan? I'm interested to see how are you assuming lower ETS prices impacting your electricity for worker during the next year to come. This is a, a, a question on the numbers. The second question is maybe for the CEO, a strategical, a strategical one. What do you think are the likely movement the European Union may take to give Europe with more competitive prices? There has been discussion on possible changes in the marginal pricing system. Do you think that that is a road that the European Union may take, and the implication for Enel of that change?
Also, I'm interesting to see on your proposal to make electricity prices in Europe more competitive for, for the industry. Thank you.
Okay. Well, the last one, Emanuele.
Thank you. Emanuele Oggioni , Kepler Cheuvreux. My first question is on renewables. It seem you are going against the tide, not increasing the CapEx in risk compared with other peers. The question is, the what are the drivers of these shift, you know, compared with the previous plan in which you increase the CapEx in regulating networks? So you are accepting lower returns, compared with the past, lower IRR, et cetera? This is the first question on, on these changes in strategy in renewables. The second question is on the strategy in data center. You could add more color on what will be your strategy. Previously, you mentioned, previously in the previous plan, an asset model.
What, what is included in terms of CapEx, PDA, et cetera, and what is it, you know, the, the main drivers of the revenue model of this part of the plan? Thank you.
Okay, we can start from Stefano.
Just to answer to the yes or not, it's not easy, yes or not. Let me say that we as... The most important thing is what is written there, that is, we have de-risked, let me say, our projections in Italy, because it's and I'm also answering to the other questions. We do not sell energy in Italy, in the pool market. Let me say, the scenario for us, it's an indication. We look at the calendar just because of our activities in terms of pre-hedging, but we sell the energy we produce. We generate 22 GW of renewables energy in Italy, and we have 22 GW of sale, fixed price to B2C and small medium enterprises. We do not sell energy spot. We use, eh?
Spot price.
Spot price. We use the calendar, we use the spot price to optimize our energy management.
Some, for data center.
For what regarding the LATAM, we have mentioned in the presentation our availability to use the asset rotation. We don't exclude, on top of this plan, the shift some capital from South America to North America, even because this is another move to de-risk our capital allocation on top of our capital. Second, question regarding the evolution price, the ETS. I don't think that Spain have particular risk, no? You have mentioned also Spain. We have a bit involved, because the component after the breakout is a little bit more the component of thermal production. The Spain is in a long position, get produced without thermal. The thermal is a very minimum, it's only for the security of the system. The impact is quite 0, no?
Because it's gas-free emission, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro. As the problem is completely different. Also, the morphology of land of Spain give a possibility to expand again in renewable. In my opinion, this country is quite very limited, the impact on the ETS. Different discussion for Italy, for Germany, no? Apart France, because it's total, no gas-free emission, but they need the maintenance of the nuclear plant. U.K. is possible create some situation. In any case, we have assumed EUR 85, no, looking forward.
Twenty.
As I said, no, Stefano, Enel is in a short position, no? We produce less than we sell.
In Italy.
In Italy, in Italy, in Italy.
Not in Spain.
The question was Italy, Spain, no?
I'm looking at that.
Other country, we don't have any position in other country in Europe. I think the discussion, the discussion can start. Our today, we want to show to the market a plan with no problem with this element. If would be better, no, you have good news. Only good news, because we have included all the negative effect. This is important because it's important for our shareholders, but also for the management, because today remain concentrate for our growth. Obviously, the discussion will start, no? The element, the ETS, in, in, in see more, more also in Germany, not only in Italy, no? Regarding essential, some categories of industry, no? Only the industry that pay the pump price. The other, the other part pay the bill at the end.
For example, in Italy, you pay the component of the grid is one of the, the most cheaper in Europe, no. In any case, no, I'm not politicians, I see the number.
After we have data center-
Data center.
- one more strategic and more details, maybe the, the-
No, there was a question also on the, the, the, it was trying to regret that we are not believing in more in, let me say, networks, I don't remember.
Ah.
Now we are moving to renewables. We have saturated the CapEx, the potential in Italy. In Spain, we are discussing, they are discussing in order to increase the Cap, and in Latin America, we are also including all the CapEx that is sustainable and needed for the quality. We are investing EUR 26 billion. I remember that some years ago, we were at a complete plan, 3 years, that was EUR 37 billion, including all the business segment. We invest in renewable also because we have to remember that the return in renewables is good. It's 200-300 basis points. In networks, we are around 150-200, when you have premium remuneration.
Don't forget that this industry experienced a problem with the return because they was not visible in the renewables. That's why we underline strongly our approach to the, for example, to the brownfield activities. For data center, data center, you have 3 potential data center play in your field. 1 is the data center that is the booster of the demand, fantastic. I don't need to partner with him, I don't need to have him as a customer, he push the demand, it's positive for the market, okay. The 2nd is the data center that want my connection, that want my site, because I give him time to market. This is what we like to explore. You have 2 model. That is, 1 is the LWE 1, that is the spot sale.
This depends on how much money and the Net Present Value of the business plan. What we prefer is to have a structural relation, but it's not the structural relation that you may have with the third role, that is the buyer of electrons. This is the worst customer you may have. When I see, "Ah, we signed an PPA," I imagine the price, because he know that is the push of the demand. He make a bid, and he received a very good pricing. I prefer to make contract with smaller player than the... I want to partner with him for my value-added component, not for the stupid electrons that made just a bid for price. It's good, but in this case, we will not pursue this kind of data center partnership.
Right. Our, our proposition is, we have the site. The site, in many case, is already connected. This is the value, no? The timing, the expectations for the new connection is, so why in Italy? In addition, we have a good relation with the local authorities for obtain permit and other things. If you compose this buy, the price of PPA is, let me say, not, not significant, unsignificant, but they give us also the, the, the enjoy more money from the electricity because they obtain the possibility to start more rapidly rather than other, no, the other solution. This is our business proposition.
Okay, so second round. Francesco, Roberto, and Peter.
Thank you. Francesco Sala, Banca Akros. The first one is, if you can give us an update on hydraulic, hydraulic concessions in Italy. There has been a, a lot of noise in the last few years. I wonder whether you can give us an update. Second, it seems to me that in your plan, you have included some outperformance of your electricity sale prices compared to your assumptions for the Italian electricity price. I wonder whether it's a function of your energy mix or your hedging policies. Thank you.
Okay, there's a problem?
Yes, good morning. Roberto Letizia from Equita SIM. Couple of questions on the perimeter of the strategy plan. With regards to the extension of the distribution concession as an example, how do you treated it within the plan? Is it, is it assumed that you're gonna have it, or is there an optionality that can generate additional investment opportunity when it comes? Just wondering to understand how you treated that, and also if you can clarify how do you treated the hydro concessions in LATAM, for example, for what we heard in the last weeks. Very quickly on the staying also on the assumption, is the EPS target that you provided, including the whole implementation of the buyback or just a part of it?
In, on, on the, on the assumption as well, you presented the EUR 85 per megawatt hour price in Italy. Last plan that was in the region of EUR 90-EUR 95. Basically, you reduced EUR 10 per megawatt hour, the assumption for Italy. Is that the order of magnitude of the ETS impact that you embedded in the plan? Thanks.
Peter?
Thank you. Peter Bisztyga from Bank of America. Two questions, if I may. First one, you talked a little bit about AI and how you intend to implement that in your business to reduce costs. I'd be grateful for a couple of practical examples of how that might work. Also, do you see any risk from AI in your retail business, from the perspective that it could actually make competition harder or, you know, make it easier for customers to switch, for example? My second question is going to the waterfall chart showing the impact of the Energy Decree on your earnings. You show a EUR 400 million impact from the ETS and gas measures. Could you work us through the math of how you get to that EUR 400 million?
What sort of impact on retail or power prices are you factoring in? Thank you.
Okay. We can start from all the questions regarding assumption with Stefano.
What?
The question regarding the assumption.
Assumption sobre Decreto... No. It's again, we, in our EBITDA regarding the power in Italy, you have to look at the scenario as a reference for the cost of the sourcing. That is the base for the pricing of the retail. Differently, we never find the math. Francesca priced the as Plenitude do than the other, what you look? You look at the forward because you have to cover your energy. We have the energy, so we also think about it, but we have to think like our competitors. You look at the calendar as a reference. We know that the calendar is not the future price, it's not the budget. In the slide that I have before, but I was talking a lot as always, you see I put the year minus one, year minus two observation.
I don't know if you can put the, the slide of the pricing that is very important. You see that the calendar have. Now that we have a situation of back to normal, let me say, in the last 3 years, you may see that each curve, 2028, 2027, and 2026, have the same direction. They grow when they approach to the present day. What do you mean? That that 85 will not be 85, if I'm perfectly okay with the figure, it would be higher, as it was higher. You may look at the slide later. That 85 is for us, the base in order to check the potential price that our customer may have in the market, because we are the unique player in Italy that have 100%, more or less, we are a little short of the energy.
We do not have to make the mistake that I experienced for 20 years of considering the plant and the CapEx spent in the past as something that is already spent, so I moved to the marginal, because the marginal for us is very low. We have to consider a pricing made by Plenitude, made by Octopus, and so on. When I was referring to the... Look, 78, 86, 91, 97, 106, 110. This is the reality coming in the field. The calendar in this world are, when you look at two years, is not like the financial market. Here, the generator want to cover the risk of the price, so they ask for the coverage, and the market create the backwardation.
It's not an expectation, it's a technical difference between demand and offer, because we don't have PPA in Italy, and it's pay the, the PPA that we need. Nobody wants to sign PPA in Italy. You know why? Because the price is high, and they expect that we'll move low.... not because the price is not good, because that was not signed in PPA. Also, because when the price was at EUR 60, why they didn't sign PPA? Because they always want to stay on the edge of the pricing curve and work on derivatives. Also, in the other side, Stefano Ciurli in Telecom Italia was the responsible for Telenergia. That was the company that Telecom Italia create to manage the energy. It was doing derivatives, the same activity, more or less, that made Lorenzo Ceppatelli. Don't think about the U.S. market PPA.
Here, it's a story of a finance guy playing the arena of the energy, making price through a financial approach. The market has completely changed because the retail now look at the price, they look at the advertising, they try to understand the energy that is very complex. When you look at 85, you have to keep in mind what? I have to reduce the expectation of the retail price because we do not have any more the floor of the ETS. The floor of the ETS was my competitor will pay the energy approximately EUR 100, because they have to secure the result with spread for repaying their cost to acquire, the cost to serve, and they have to cover the risk of the calendar, okay? The...
What we have done, we have accepted that the ETS will not stay at that price, will not be to EUR 120, so the energy price will reduce. In a way, that is a proxy for you to understand of the EUR 85. The price of Francesca, that is the blue line, I will not tell you, but not because of you, but because of my, my competitors. Okay.
Regarding the hydro, I answer two questions, no? One regarding hydro concession, the second one, the grid concession, no? First of all, let me say hydro, our hydro concession expiring in 2030, no? That there is time. Have you seen our local municipality and Edison had signed an agreement with the regional Lombardia? Now, I don't know the evolution of this agreement, but this agreement based on a renewal of the concession, no, and the stabilized a certain price for certain categories of industries. We wait and see, but we are not particularly worried about it because the evolution, the timing, if no, the history of the energy sector, know also the evolution and the volatility of this sector.
Government need to low price. When they have reached a low price, need high investment because it's not sufficient, the low price, because there is a short of energy. When you have invested in CapEx, the price rig, rig going up, and they need another, no, version of the cycle, no? It's 20 years in this, this cycle, you know, the country. A concession for the de-risk activity, we have put only EUR 1 billion, no? In our meeting with the our shareholders, the the discussion based on how many you have consider as fees for the renew. When we have put EUR 1 billion, we have reduced also this risk, no? Because as was another risk on top of that.
Regarding LATAM, remaining only 1 discussion, because in Brazil, all the other Ceará and Rio de Janeiro are more or less completed the renew, with no expenditure, apart the CapEx for maintaining the concession. Remaining São Paulo, you know, the São Paulo, we have had some trouble, but all the our legal department and our subsidiary give to the authorities our ability, because in this last year, we have recovered 50% of the quality of the service. Of course, there is a particular situation because the infrastructures, the cable in São Paulo, São Paulo is, there is not a, an underground cable, is completely on air and is into the tree, not close, not side. This is impossible, no?
There is a storm, there is a special situation, it is, it's impossible to avoid the blackout. This case, we have, I think, a good discussion for propose to them a definitive solution, a final solution for avoid this problem, because in our opinion, it's not a problem in the Enel, no? In this case, if they remain this kind of trees, it is only one able to manage, but it's not human, it's Jesus Christ, no? It's not possible, no, otherwise, avoid this blackout. And it's important to understand, no, that when you approve the CapEx, you need time for the implementation and other things, and not always this time match with the expectation of the population.
Take in consideration today, they have the election, and no one of the party want to be involved in the discussion related to the blackout. At the end, we think we are in the right party. As I said, in the last 3 year, we have to find a solution for, you know, São Paulo. Take in consideration also that the Brazilian law consider, in this case, for the asset, the RAB. The RAB is about EUR 2.5 billion, the RAB, but the concession regarding only the asset, not the company. This is an additional value, no? Additional value, regarding, as, you know, other service, generator, as other, and the people, in this case, the valuation is much higher, no?
For have a completely vision of the, you know, the situation. Also, in this case, we think we have done a completely de-risking for this investment in LATAM, I think.
The AI 1?
Ah, no, the AI one.
There will be a risk, opportunity?
I don't see particular risk. We have 100% of our service. If we want explain, truly. We have opportunity, for example, for the call center. Our digital company, LENE, we have just launched, take in consideration, they have only one person for the call center. All the rest is completely managed for AI, no? Call centers, we give the service not with our employees, but the external supplier. For us, it is an opportunity. Of course, at the social level, there is a risk, this I don't think is for Enel, but for the country in general, no? Many kind of job, you know, are under risk in terms of, you know, number of occupation.
If you explain, truly, do you have a, a micro? You got a microphone?
Thank you.
As you have seen in the slide, we are moving with 350 application that we produce in-house. We have a data factory with more than 100 data scientists. I also remember we, we have more than 700 coders that work on the ICT model for global level. Of course, we are reviewing all the processes of the companies, trying to keep more effectiveness in the process and keeping out also more efficiency, of course. If we speak about the market side, we have a level of digitalization of all the industry, of Enel, that is 100% in cloud. 100% of all the call of the process are digitalized.
On the market side, we renew in the last 2 years, more and more processes in terms of customer value chain. We start also with learning another approach, that is reimagine the process, reimagine the business. Let me say, I think we are on track to compete with the most and important technology that come in the market.
Another flower for hydro concession, it's important to understand this. The current concession for the local municipality is already expired in 2010, 15 years ago. Now, we have discussed how we can do that, no? This is the timing in Italy for this no concession. There is also a complicated and complex relationship between the national government and the local government, no?
You know, there is the Articolo 5 della Costituzione, the Italian Constitution, that give totally the regional power about this material, and there is little bit conflict on that. Please, stay...
Add this, not just the. We are the unique player in the hydro that do not have any part of our concession expired. As Flavio was saying, we are not, in this moment, we have other, also other concession to discuss. We are not, let me say, inactive player there. It's not the moment, to be honest. You also asked about the PS bridge. In the share buyback, you see that there is 3, 4, because 3 is SPA, Enel S.p.A. The slash 4 is, Enel is a one that I do not control, let me say, directly in terms of execution. Let me say, you may consider 4, if you consider also the execution of the full share buyback of Enel, then it will depend on the price.
The price is not dramatic. We'll not stop, clearly, the share buyback because of the price. We are quite happy to have a positive performance in the share. Regarding the impact of the different price assumption, I explain another time because I think it's very important. That's why I put also the read calendar. In the past, Enel Energia, it means Francesca Agostinelli sourcing, was made at the spot price. The calendar, I have to source the offer that I will launch tomorrow, and I will source myself at the calendar 28, 27, depending on the duration of the contract with the final customers. The energy manager was made the, let me say, the purchasing department of Enel Energia.
The Energia de Francesca is the energy that, oops, Bernabei and Enel Green Power produce. It has an industrial cost, is managed by the Energy Management in order to optimize the portfolio. That is very important because we can pre-hedge, we have to manage the famous buffer hydro that in 2022 made disaster here. When I, you, I talked about how we have a negative impact of the poor hydroelectricity in Italy, we do not have a negative impact, strong negative impact, EBITDA, because as I tell you, a lot of time, we maintain a buffer in the hydro in order to not have the risk of being short from the hydro plants.
Okay, what happened in this plan that I have to reduce not the cost that I don't know what will be of the sourcing made that's the in the spot market, meaning calendars of the future time, but I have to reduce the price to the final customers. As I sometimes tell you, if I have a reduction of EUR 5, it's EUR 10 in the bill of the customers, imagine 2 megawatt hour of consumption. If I have to suppose a reduction of 25, that is the magic number that everybody have in the in the Excel today, I have to review the pricing policy of Enel Energia. Mm-hmm?
Okay. We, we have time for last. Okay, Gonzalo?
Hi. Thank you. Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona from UBS. I've 3 questions. One is more generic regarding the... I mean, you sound very confident about the whole delivery of the plan, which, which we, I think, all appreciate. What, what is really the risk that something goes wrong? How-- would, would you put a number to it? I mean, what is the maximum downside you can expect in this plan? Thinking about the, obviously, without giving us the details, I guess, of the potential things that could go wrong, and I would imagine selling some assets that you are not thinking about today, or having some changes in regulation or, or expectations regarding, how, how things evolve on the regulatory side. This brings me to my second question. On, on the Italian measures proposed last week, the...
Well, the key one, the ETS one, is subject to approval by the European Commission. What do you expect happens if that doesn't come through? I guess, what is your expectation regarding that approval? If it doesn't happen, I would imagine the Italian government would want to do something else in order to reduce prices. What is your expectation on that? Then the third one is just a brief one regarding... I mean, last, last time you presented a plan, we talked about nuclear in Italy as a way of reducing prices. We haven't heard for quite a few months, I guess. So, so my question is, are there any developments there? Has the view changed completely? Is that something that the company is working on? Thank you.
Let me see. What happened, I leave the floor to Stefano because what happened is a big question, so for the life, not only for Enel.
The finances.
Regarding our assumption and the possibility to EU don't approve, would be a good news because instead of 80, 82, would be another number. You know, we have taken into account the existing situation, because otherwise, it was impossible to have a discussion with you about hypotheses or other situation. Now, we present a plan as if the decree was approved, been approved from the EU. In case there is modification or it's not approved, would be better. It's a simple, it's not. Regarding nuke, we, you know, we have just launched the company for study the solution, but nuke need time, even because the technology SMR, at the moment, there is the Chinese example on other under construction in Canada, I think.
There is not the decision is not, not take place because need law, no? For starting, for there is after the law to create the new agency, need to choice the site. It's not easy and need time. I know also the government, because under incredible pressure, all the people said to them, "But you don't know nothing about the, the price, about the, the company, about that," and they have taken the de- they have take this action because otherwise was impossible because the pressure, it has been strong about them. The evolution, I don't know the evolution, but in any case, not negative, more negative than we have presented. Stefano, regarding the risk?
Yeah. Let me say, the analysis that we made, we present to the board of the company, an analysis that make also not just the market, the financial stress, what may happen, the competition, the regulatory one. This year, we were ready to present also that, in the last year, we not presented the, let me say, the risk analysis in our figure. We have prepared, unfortunately, we have to manage the risk that was happening in our business plan. In the last week, I am sorry, we have to work on the emergency of what may happen if... we, we're not ready. To the big question that is: How much is the risk today of a negative change in the price scenario in Italy?
It's strongly reduced, consider that the ETS have a lot of implications. We have a floor of between EUR 20 to EUR 30 that is represented by, if we eliminate the ETS, we will have the coal that become the competitive generation in Europe. We will have a dramatic change in the coal generation because it will become the most competitive source of energy in Europe, we have Poland, Germany... We have freeze the carbon, we have to, we would have to ask to the government, "Can we move back to generate energy with the coal?" Again, the risk is now reduced. Net-net, summing up, you know, the analysis, probably how it works, if you sum all the impacts, you have some relief because it's impossible to have all the negatives.
Sometimes I think that is possible here. Okay. You have another, let me say, impact that is the same that we have today. Approximately EUR 300 million, let me say, that comes from other source, another EUR 300 million. Again, it is the sum of impacts affecting the financial cost, competition, that now is strongly reduced. Price scenario in the Americas, we have PPA signed. Honestly, the renewal of the PPA is not an issue today in the net income. In Spain, between the market scenario and the ancillary cost, the margin was strongly reduced. Let me say, you have a negative impact of that size is quite impossible because probably a lot of player will die before us, before this.
No, it's how much you are great to resist to a negative impact on margins of some, some measure. Let me say another EUR 300, if you wanna consider what may happen in terms of negative regulatory implication, also in the remuneration, the network, in LATAM and in Spain, in Italy is, is quite defined.
We have run of time, but obviously, Investor Relations is available for any follow-up. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Have a good day.
Bye-bye.