Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Eni 2021 fourth quarter and full year results conference call hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer. For the duration of the call, you'll be in listen only mode. However, at the end of the call, you will have the opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and one on your touchtone telephone. I am now handing you over to your hosts to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to our 2021 full year results presentation. While the world economy is still normalizing, in 2021, we both accomplished one of our best economic and financial performances of the last decade and accelerated our transformation strategy. Let's move on to the highlight of the year. From the strategic point of view, we have been enhancing the value of our businesses by creating independent vehicles inside our portfolio. These focus companies will attract new capital, unlock value and accelerated growth. The upcoming IPO of Plenitude and the creation of the business combination with BP in Angola fit into this framework. Furthermore, this week we completed the successful listing of Vår Energi at a valuation of $8 billion, receiving a demand of 4 times our original offer, raising a total of $1 billion.
Vår Energi is the largest oil and gas IPO in Europe in over a decade. This represents the evolution of our successful experience in Norway, where over the last few years we have become one of the top producers. This listing will support the development of our assets while unlocking capital for the transition. Norway continues to represent a key area for Eni, also in the renewable space with Vårgrønn, the entity we established to develop offshore wind project in the Northeast Baltic market. While speeding up the execution of our new businesses, we have further improved our HSE performances. Thanks to the constant effort in building a safety culture, we have confirmed our historical track record, positioning Eni as an industry leader with a total recordable injury rate at 0.34 per million working hours.
Our strong execution and discipline on cost contributed to a group adjusted operating income of EUR 9.7 billion, the highest since 2012, when average Brent price exceeded $110 per barrel, with a CFFO pre-working capital of EUR 12.7 billion, excluding the effect of derivatives and the reduction of our leverage to 20% with CapEx lower than EUR 6 billion. Within the material improvement of our balance sheet, in this strong financial performance, we were able to restore our dividend and buyback to pre-COVID levels. In 2021, we significantly accelerate our transformation. We announced our commitment to net zero Scope 1, 2, and 3 emission by 2050, with the aim of helping our customers to move progressively to clean energy. We took concrete action on our plan to create diversified decarbonized energy portfolio.
This is the case of Plenitude, our new company that is integrated along the green value chain and which will act as a catalyst for driving down Scope 3 emissions among our customers. We also progressed in the development of low and zero carbon technologies, which are at the heart of our transitional model. As an example, we are the operator of the transportation and storage segment of the HyNet North West carbon capture and sequestration project, which is located in a major industrial hub in Northwest England and Wales, and which received a strong interest from industrial clients with the signature today of 19 agreements for the storage of their emissions.
As main shareholders in Commonwealth Fusion Systems, an MIT spinoff, we achieved an important milestone on magnetic confinement fusion, a technology which could lead to the worldwide application of zero-emission electricity generation within the next decade. Finally, in biorefining, we leverage our long-standing partnership with the key African countries where we are jointly progressing the development of circular economy projects aimed at securing a diversified agro-bio feedstock. We also made important steps toward linking our transition strategy to financial instrument. First in our sector, we successfully issued EUR 1 billion sustainability-linked bond to support our development plan. Turning now to natural resources.
In upstream, we deliver solid results in exploration and production, achieving a yearly production of 1.7 million barrels per day, with more than 700 million equity resources discovered at less than $1.5 per barrel unit exploration cost, far exceeding our exploration guidance. Production was sustained by the ramp-ups in Egypt, startups in Indonesia, UAE, and Angola, which compensated for PSA contract effects, Nigeria underproduction, and maintenance in Norway, as well as natural depletion. Overall, we fully capture the favorable scenario resulting in the outstanding 2021 adjusted EBIT of EUR 9.3 billion. In GGP, we reached a very strong EBIT of EUR 0.6 billion, exceeding the yearly guidance. Leveraging the flexibility of our portfolio, we have captured substantial value from asset optimization and from the conclusion of long-term contract negotiation.
Furthermore, we restarted our Egypt LNG plant, Damietta, in the first half of the year and have already delivered more than 50 cargoes to date. This solid result come along with a progressive increase of carbon efficiency in our upstream assets. Regarding our upstream Scope 1 and 2 emissions, our net absolute reduction at year-end is - 25% compared to 2018, with the progression in line with the target of - 50% by 2024, and net zero by 2030. This result has been achieved through a zero flaring project, the adoption of best practices to reduce fugitive methane emission, and energy efficiency initiatives such as electrification. Eni Exploration confirmed its world-class track record with a major discovery in Côte d'Ivoire in September, Baleine, coupled with several other commercial discoveries in Norway, Angola, Ghana, Indonesia, and Mexico.
The Baleine discovery potential is estimated to be around 2 billion barrels of oil in place and 2.4 billion cu ft of associated gas. This discovery will also contribute to domestic gas power generation to meet the country's growing energy need. The FID for phase 1 has been reached after five months from the discovery. The project will be a Scope 1 and 2 net-zero development, the first of this kind in Africa. Baleine confirms our commitment to generate high value while reducing the carbon footprint and our focus to improve the time to market of our exploration discoveries. Likewise, in Congo, we are fast-tracking a gas valorization development to deploy gas production both for domestic power generation and LNG export. This development will timely capture a favorable market window and will support our zero routine flaring target.
The export project consists of two modular and flexible LNG liquefaction plants, which allow a competitive time to market. Together, they will reach nearly 2 million tons per year liquefaction capacity at plateau. We target LNG production to start up in 2023. Let's move to Plenitude. Last November, we unveiled the creation of Plenitude, which integrates the experience we have built over the decades in retail, in renewables since 2015, and more recently in e-mobility. In 2021, Plenitude reached an EBITDA of EUR 600 million, 25% higher than in 2020, and a total renewable capacity installed and under construction of more than 2 GW , achieving the accelerated yearly target.
In January, Plenitude continued to enlarge its pipeline with the acquisition of, in Greece, of Solar Konzept Greece, an asset development company with 800 MW pipeline of solar project at various stages of development. Plenitude's retail segment also grew, building its international customer base and increasing its services offering. The company will offer all its retail power customers 100% net-zero power from later this year. In downstream, during 2021, we progressed the enhancement and restructuring of our portfolio of low carbon technologies. We started a new biomass treatment unit in Gela, and we have been working to diversify our biorefining supply chain to make it more and more sustainable.
Throughout the year, we halved our use of palm oil, and we are on track to meet our target of being palm oil-free by 2023. We started the production of sustainable aviation fuel and signed agreement with Roma and Milan airports. Always on sustainable mobility, we made a material move with the acquisition of FRI-EL, a leader in Italian biogas production. In the chemical sector, Versalis acquired 100% of Finproject, becoming the Italian leader in the manufacturing of special polymers. With the acquisition of Ecoplastic, we have expanded our experience in the recovery, recycling and transformation chain of styrenic polymers.
Downstream results improved year-on-year with EUR 125 million adjusted pro forma EBIT from last year's loss of about EUR 160 million, sustained by strong performance in the chemical sector in the first half of the year and a resilient marketing. On the other hand, traditional and biorefining remained challenged due to weak demand and higher energy and feedstock costs. Moving on to our cash balance. 2021 was one of our best performances in the last decade, with the underlying cash flow from operation before working capital at EUR 12.7 billion, excluding the effect of derivatives, more than twice our CapEx and resulting in an organic free cash flow of around EUR 7 billion, the highest since 2012.
The outstanding performance of the cash result allow us to completely cover our CapEx remuneration and the acceleration of the transition businesses, leading to an overall excess free cash flow of more than EUR 2 billion. Group cash neutrality for CapEx and floor dividend was at $44 per barrel, beating our initial target of about $50 per barrel expected for the year. Finally, we reduced our net debt by EUR 2.6 billion, moving our leverage at 20%, which confirms a solid and robust balance sheet. To conclude, 2021 was a year of strong delivery. We took important actions to become a leader in producing clean energy and offering customers a full set of decarbonized products and services. We improved our main operating and financial targets.
We provide evidence of consistent execution on our strategic path, supported by our strong upstream performances. In an increasingly solid business context, for 2022 we expect another strong year of performance and strategic achievement. Now I'm ready with my team to answer your questions. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from Irene Himona with Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon and congratulations on these strong results. My first question concerns distribution policy, which has been linked to Brent scenario stopped at $65. I wonder if you prefer to speak about what the market can expect in the current $90 environment, please. My second question concerns Saipem. If you can remind us what is your return on that investment, please? The logic of continuing ownership and would you intend to support the company in any future capital raising? Thank you.
Thank you. For the distribution policy, clearly our distribution policy had set a limit at $65. Clearly, we have to revise this distribution policy as we announce the distribution policy. The dividend and the shareholder buyback will be disclosed and presented during our strategy presentation in March, the 18th of March. That is what I can say. Clearly, the environment changed completely, so we have to adapt our distribution policy. For Saipem, what we believe really, now you saw that we injected new resources. They are in a structuring process, a reorganization, and they are working to present a new plan.
Clearly a new plan that must be presented to the market and so to the shareholders to understand what about the future. Until we don't know exactly which kind of program, project, reorganization, restructuring, cost cutting, we cannot express anything. Clearly, with CDP, we support Saipem, but we have to understand the future and that's what I can say at this moment in time. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from Massimo Bonisoli with Equita. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. A couple of questions from my side. One is regarding CapEx spending in 2022. I understand that you will have more details in at the Capital Markets Day. Just some consideration regarding the inflation ongoing in the system, so maybe that can affect your CapEx budget into 2022. If you can spend some words on that. The second on the biofuel production, which become quite important even including Versalis. So if you can let us know the 2021 volumes, the EBITDA, if possible, and the expected capacity in 2022 following the recent announcement.
I will answer the first questions also, because then I don't have to talk too much about 2022, but just give some outlook. For the rest, Pino Ricci and Francesco, if they want to add some detail, they can answer. For CapEx, I think that the most important signal we gave also during 2021 was to have a very strong discipline on CapEx. That is also the reason why we have been able to exploit at the maximum level the good price. For that reason, we reach an outstanding EUR 7 billion of free cash flow. We want to apply the same kind of discipline also for the next periods, clearly for 2022. We're already working on that.
We're already embedded in the possible inflection or in any case inflection in terms of cost. What I can say that the CapEx 2022 will be more or less in line with the CapEx that we had in 2021. Yes, a little more, but it's around the same kind of value, so around EUR 7 billion. Clearly, in 2022, we continue to invest in the transformation. We consider also in the EUR 7-something billion, we consider also the investment that we were going to do in our transformation. That is not just the green renewables, but also the transformation in green and biochemicals, in refineries.
We continue to invest in the upstream because we discover many, many reserves, but we try to be, as we have been until now, very efficient in our investment in the upstream. For the other, for the second question, I give the floor to Pino Ricci.
Thank you, Claudio. About the biofuel production in 2021, our production was slightly less than last year, 670 kilotons versus 700 kilotons, mainly because of the effect of COVID on the demand. About the 2022, of course, we expect that the demand will grow what we have seen also in the last quarter of last year. We will increase the utilization of our biorefineries. About the EBITDA, of course, the 2021 was a strange year because the demand of HVO, the hydrotreated vegetable oil, dropped mainly in the first half because of COVID.
There was a lot of pressure on margin due to the high cost of feedstock coming from Far East, because of the COVID effect on Malaysia, Indonesia, and so on. In the last quarter, also the cost of energy has a certain impact on the result. The EBITDA was lower than last year, and we was slightly negative. What we expect for 2022 is a sudden increase in the margin.
Our strategy that we are speeding up is just to remove the risk of the volatility of the price of the feedstock, because we are investing a lot in the vertical integration, the realization of agricultural production and waste collection in the countries where there are availability of this. We have recently announced the agreement with many countries, Kenya, Republic of Congo, Benin, Angola, and so on, that will allow us to have a lot of feedstock available for the refineries, controlling all the supply chain.
I just want to clarify a bit better what I said before about CapEx. When I say in line, I talk in line with the previous plan that we presented. When we say in line, we talk about an average of EUR 7 billion. That is what was in line. Because in 2021 we spent a little bit less.
Very clear now. Thank you.
The next question is from Lucas Herrmann with Exane. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Two questions, if I might. Could you just confirm the amount that you're going to receive from the spin-out or from the sell-down of your position in Vår Energi, a nd secondly, could you talk a little bit more about the development you're referring to in the Congo in terms of bringing on 2 million tons of capacity by. Or did you say plateau 2 million tons of capacity by 2023? Seems a you know very rapid development timeline, even for a modular LNG facility. So just some expansion there, if possible. Thank you.
Thank you. The first question is for Francesco and the other for Guido.
Yes. Hi, Luca. On Vår, the IPO there clearly is still going on, and you know that there is greenshoe that are traded during this day. The overall amount will be available at the end of this early phase of trading. We are in the range between the two parts of $1 billion of cash in, and will be split 50/50. That is the kind of expectation. It should be in the range of $500 million for Eni.
Thank you.
Thank you. Yeah, indeed, the LNG project will exploit the abundant resources in our Marine XII blocks, which are in excess of those required by the domestic market. We will apply, of course, our distinctive fast-track development concept to target the startup in 2023, and at full capacity, the 2 million tons per year in 2024, capturing the current market window. The fast execution is clearly being achieved, thanks to the availability of gas resources and to the availability of modular offshore facilities, which are being contracted and will be available in country by the Q2 of 2023.
Of Q2 of this year? Sorry, just to be clear.
2, Q2 20-
Q2 2022, I think you said.
No, no. The startup is in Q2. The
No, the-
The unit will be available in Q2 2023 for the startup.
Installation and then startup.
For the installation.
The startup is during 2023.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from Henry Tarr with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys, and thanks for taking my call. Just a quick one on gas sensitivity and the impact of, you know, the splitting out the higher gas prices on cash flow particularly for the quarter and as we look at 2022. Apologies if I've missed it and you've already talked about this.
About the gas sensitivity, it is difficult to read the gas sensitivity just on a quarterly basis, because there are various factors playing in. You know very well that, I think that you're referring to the sensitivity in terms of upstream value, and you know that we have a split according to the contracts that we have. In terms of volume, just to give you some, let's say, rule of thumb, we have 20% that are related to spot. It is clearly mainly European and U.S. trading. While in the remaining part, there are substantially split with an oil-linked formula and, let's say, a domestic reference or fixed formula of pricing.
The sensitivity, just to give you an idea, it is that we have almost $170 million of increasing cash flow in case of $1 per million BTU of growth. This is on a yearly basis. On quarterly basis, clearly there are many factors according with the mix component and with the different price changes. I would prefer to give you this as, let's say, a longer reference.
Thanks very much. Is that $1 per MMBTU as a global average gas realization, or is that linked to-
That is related.
U.K. import?
It is related to the overall mix, not just a single mix. Not just a specific-
Okay
..region.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. First one's on the LNG project, again, in the Congo. Could you disclose a breakeven for that project, and also confirm whether the sale tied to contracts or they're gonna be spot exposed there. The second question's on refining margins, which obviously you referenced some of the headwinds, but could you provide a sensitivity to your refining margin to rising energy and carbon costs? Thank you.
For Congo LNG, what we can say is that the pre-FID is clearly double-digit, because that is associated gas. We drill, we produce oil, and that is associated gas. For LNG is double-digit. All these gas will be on spot market. Double-digit for the Upstream, and the spot market for the trade of gas. Second question?
Now, about the impact of the energy cost on downstream. We are seeing that the spike of the price of the gas and the electricity and steam produce an extra cost versus the previous year of EUR 500 million for the refining, reduced to EUR 300 million with the optimization initiative that we have put immediately on field. Including the replacement of gas with other light fuel, less expensive, and the reduction of use of some plants with high consumption of gas. The same impact was about on chemistry, where in the year, the impact was about EUR 250 million. Very, very high.
In terms of SERM, the impact of SERM that it means $3-$4 per barrel. Is
Great. Thank you.
The next question is from Mehdi Ennebati with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon all. Thanks for taking my questions. Just maybe the first question about, you know, your cash flow generation, you know, the EUR 5.8 billion figure that you published. From what I understand, it has been positively impacted by commodity derivative inflow of around EUR 1.7 billion. Can you tell us if we should expect this gain to reverse in 2022 or not at all? And second question, just a follow-up maybe on your dividend policy. You highlighted that you fixed, you know, you were expecting the Brent price in 2021 to be at $65. It came at $71, okay, finally in 2021.
Should we then expect an adjustment of the full year 2021 shareholder remuneration policy during the capital market day, or no? Maybe just please a follow-up regarding your gas price realization. You said 20% of your gas price realization is linked to spot Europe, U.S. Can you please provide us the split? Is it 10% Europe, 10% Henry Hub? Because honestly, it has been at least I think you know your realized gas price has been particularly weak in the first quarter, given that Brent price went up. So oil-linked price you know should have gone up even if there is a lag. TTF was up quite significantly, and even the Henry Hub you know went up quarter-over-quarter. Thank you.
The derivatives, yes, you are correct that the EUR 5.8 billion, that is the cash flow from operations, let's say after working capital and derivatives, will see some reversal next year. In particular, we are referring to the almost EUR 1 billion of cascading effect that we have in power derivatives. You know that what these kind of tools, once they get close to the end of the year, they are closing the derivatives, and you cash in this temporarily. That this will reverse in the coming quarters. It's not just specific in the first quarter, but will be spread around in the remaining, in the full year of 2022.
This is EUR 1 billion negative effect that you will see in the working capital for the next year. All the data that we are presenting in the presentation are actually before excluding this effect. About the demand related to the spot reference for gas, we could say that of the 20%, practically almost 95% is substantially European gas, because we have a very limited gas production in the U.S. It's not linked to Henry Hub. About the dividend.
On dividend, please.
Yes, about the dividend. You know that we declared last year in July the price reference. This was actually we do not make a sort of, let's say, back change of the pricing. We will present the new distribution policy in the coming Capital Markets Day on 18th of March. On the basis of that, we will present which will be the scale that is clearly above $66, that at the time last year was supposed to be, let's say a quite distant figure, and now actually is already below our reality, well below the reality. We'll see also which are the different reference and the Brent.
All right, just to make it clear, your new, let's say, planned price deck for 2022 or your new dividend policy will only start impacting the dividend payment for 2022 or the 2022, sorry, dividend payment?
Yes. Today with the press release, we also announced that we confirm the dividend for 2021, so the second installment is confirmed at EUR 0.43. For 2022 we will have the new reference and the new values.
Thanks very much.
The next question is a follow-up from Irene Himona with Société Générale. Please go ahead. Ms. Himona, your line is open.
Sorry, can you hear me?
Yes, now we can. Please go ahead.
Yes.
Apologies. It's a question on the cash flow. You raised EUR 2 billion by selling your receivables, so factoring effectively. Can you help us understand if this is in a specific part of the business, perhaps the retail side, and should we anticipate that this can be replicated in future? Is it not expensive to do that? Thank you.
It is related to the increase of the commodity prices that makes this kind of receivables higher and bigger. It is something that is mainly related to the gas pricing.
Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Massimo Bonisoli with Equita. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon again. Just a question on gas in Italy, if you can shed some light on the current discussion with the Italian government, and should we expect some revamping of gas production in Italy, from your upstream, and what would be the eventual economics from the increased volume? That would help.
We discussed with the government, but clearly we don't know exactly what they are deciding in terms of norms and in terms of future. What I can say that we are open to discuss. In the case to have the possibility to develop some new reserves, we are ready to do that. We still have some reserves. We still have the capability to increase production in Italy. We wait and we see. Clearly we are open and ready to act and invest in Italy on the gas side.
If I may squeeze in, Argo and Cassiopea are included in those discussions? They will go on, separately?
Argo Cassiopea is included in our investment plan. It's something that in any case is something that is ongoing. It will be included in an additional gas share. What I'm talking about is new investment or new activities, because it's more or less sidetrack work over in some infilling wells or in some cases we have some possible new field that we didn't develop. Argo Cassiopea is already in our plan.
Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Lucas Herrmann with Exane. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. We're all doing very well this afternoon. Just three more briefly, if I might. Firstly, Claudio, the EUR 7 billion of CapEx, does that assume the full year of contribution towards Angola? Or is that seven billion assuming. Does that seven billion assume that, you know, Angola is effectively treated as an associate from some point? Secondly, can you just give us an indication of what kind of volumes you expect to be able to take out of Egypt this year in LNG? And thirdly, apologies, a really unfair question, but how are you thinking about the oil price in 2022 and beyond? How has your view, you know, changed? And I'm asking clearly, you know, on the basis that it's key to the distribution policy that you'll start to talk around at greater length in March.
Yes. For Angola, clearly, it's really marginal what we have inside our plan, because clearly we consider already the business combination and this investment will be in the business combination. For the price deck for this year, what I think about the scenario, not the price deck. The price deck will be disclosed in terms of dividend next month. What I think about the scenario, I think that is. The supply is still tight and so there is a gap between demand and supply. What I also think that now the investment restarted. We have new investment, especially on the oil side.
We have new investment, and I think that really in 2022, I think we can see the benefit of this investment. To reduce the gap and the distance between supply and demand. I can't say what will be the price, but I noticed that there is a reaction, especially from the NOC or from the producers in the U.S., clearly, but also from other areas, the Middle East, for example, in Africa, to invest more and exploit this price. That is very good window of opportunity. I think that oil now is peaking because we are in the middle of the reaction.
Now there is more confidence, so I think that some producers, some producing country are reacting and they can really close the gap between the demand and supply. Not this year, but in the coming period for sure.
Okay. LNG in Egypt?
LNG in Egypt, what we said, you know, we started Damietta. We reached practically the full capacity. The gas is there. Still have some 100 million scf per day to fill in this, so we can increase a little bit our capacity in Damietta. The production is there, so we discover a lot of production and we are producing at a good rate. From a feedstock point of view, there is no problem for Damietta.
Do you think we should be assuming something of the order of 2 million tons of exports from Damietta this year for Eni? Or can you Yeah. That's, that's anything more specific? I'm sorry to push you.
Hi. Thanks for your question. Currently, we expect Damietta to deliver in 2022 roughly, you know, 50 cargoes. In there we are working with the assumption-
Okay.
exporting 70% of the nameplate capacity.
That's great. Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Mehdi Ennebati with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon again. Thanks a lot. Just a follow-up question, please, regarding your gas realization price. If I apply, you know, the TTF price increase to 18%, let's say, of your gas production, it gives me in fact, you know, your gas realization price increase from Q3 to Q4, I am already at $10 per Mcf. That implicitly means you did not benefit at all from the increase in the oil link, let's say, gas price. Just would like to please to have your help here, because there is probably something that I am missing there. How did you only increase your gas realization price by $3 per Mcf in Q4 versus Q3, please? Thank you.
It's because once you look at the price that we have as a reference versus the third quarter, you have to consider that we have, as we said before, a quite large blended volumes with different components that, in a certain case, are flat, in other cases are related to a link with formulas that were by certain delays. The other part is related to the spot market. The immediate reactivity is related only to this last component. The others are determining a slower reaction that will emerge quarter by quarter. I think that this is. You have to consider also that the core quarter, the third quarter was already high in terms of spot.
It is true that we had the jump, but September last year was a price. There was very high prices. That is what we can say. As I mentioned to you have to consider that the cash it is better to read on a yearly basis because
That is the only way.
It's the only way because there is also clearly contractual triggers. It is difficult to have a formula that is working on a quarterly basis, too many components.
All right. Thank you very much.
The next question is a follow-up from Henry Tarr with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi there, thanks again for taking my question. Two quickly. I guess just coming back to the Congo LNG ramp up and the speed of that development. Clearly there are sort of material NPV benefits from getting it running that quickly. How cost competitive is this sort of modular phase? I wonder whether there's a CapEx estimate for the project or an indication of sort of CapEx per MTPA or something like that. Then on the other side, just to switch gears a little bit into the renewables business, as Plenitude ramps up and looks to deliver sort of 2 GW per annum.
Clearly it seems to be quite a difficult environment to be building renewables with costs of, you know, solar panels in particular going sort of sharply higher. Have you found any issues with delivery on any of the renewables projects that may be having an impact on expected returns or not as yet? Thanks.
Claudio already mentioned. I mean, the cost is very competitive. The return are very competitive considering that it's associated gas, so we can also leverage on revenues coming from oil. The midstream part is on lease basis with facilities that in some cases are already amortized. We are getting benefit of low liquefaction fees. This together with the nature of the supply resources makes this project attractive.
Just to complete, maybe to give more detail on Congo. Part of this gas is gas that we stored in the last years with the aim to reduce our flaring. We have this gas immediately available for LNG and for domestic market. A huge quantity. Overall, we talk about 6 TCF-7 TCF of gas available. A good portion of this gas is already stored. For that reason, it's very quick. We are drilling additional well for oil, and we are going to have a continuity also on the associated gas. It's quick, it's very quick for that reason.
As I said, a double digit, so it's good NPV also because it's gas that we stored before, so there is no big investment through the upstream side to do. The rest is at least back, so everything is faster and easier. We talk about shallow water. That is something that we didn't say before. It's something that we do in shallow water with a fast track development, practically using a FPSO formula, where we add all the processes to on the FPSO formula. It's flexible, it's shallow water, gas available in big quantity.
Now with this interesting large window of opportunity, especially for the spot gas, I think that is the best moment to start. Clearly, we work on this project, and we start few years ago, from the engineering point of view, from a facility point of view, and storage in the gas.
Of renewables. What we have is a plan for construction in the next year that is already under contract, meaning that we have already signed contract for those delivery, meaning that we have greatly de-risked the inflation, and we know how much will be the cost and the delivery of those material. Second, we ran a recent bidding exercise for the acquisition of solar panel, and the exercise was positively surprising for us because our cost estimate was higher than the actual result of this bid. Third, our business model that combine the retail gas and power with the renewables. We have this franchise marketing, internal marketing. We sell the power production to our own clients, so we are naturally hedging that, and we can defend ourself against any inflation trend.
Lastly, we are not obliged to sign power purchase agreement or having the feed-in tariff agreed before we take the final investment decision, because we are a merchant in the production of the renewable energy, and then again, it's hedged against inflation.
Great. Thanks.
The last question is a follow-up from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the time. So the first one is on taxes. I'm looking at 2021, cash taxes were, you know, below P&L tax. Could you say anything about 2022? And also some operators in Libya have talked about these sort of one-off tax increases or tax payments in the first quarter of 2022. Is that the same for Eni and can you quantify that? And then the second question is just on the upstream. A number of operators have talked about kind of maintenance catch-up post the pandemic, which has impacted production. What can you say about 2022 volumes? Is it a, you know, a heavy maintenance year or a normal year?
Also any comments on the PSA impact for 2022 would be helpful. Thank you.
About the tax rate, what we can say is that clearly the tax rate this year, as you've seen, is normalized, it's 48%. The cash tax rate is 24%, is clearly in line with what was in the past. For the next year, assuming a price in the range of $70-$80, you could expect a tax rate that will be probably in the range of 50%-51%. That is what we are expecting. We don't have what you mentioned about Libya and this kind of mechanism of reversal tax that you described.
On the production side?
Could you hear me? We don't have-
Sorry.
We don't have activity to catch up in general. We have the normal routine activity in the country like, you know. The impact is lower than this year.
The PSA sensitivity, could you remind us?
The PSA effect is in the range of less than 1,000 barrels per day for each dollar of value. If there is this increase, you know, you can make the calculation, 700,000-800,000.
Thank you very much.
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