Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Eni's 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full-Y ear Results Conference Call, hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer. For the duration of the call, you will be in listen-only mode. However, at the end of the call, you will have the opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and one on your telephone. I'm now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. 2025 was a year of exceptional progress at Eni. We developed and executed our distinctive strategy, in many cases, exceeding our original target. We will discuss in detail our update plan at the forthcoming capital markets update in March, but I can say at this point that 2025 provided an excellent guide to what you should expect the future to hold for Eni. Last year's result proved the value of our consistent strategy, strong operational and financial performance, timely project delivery to support growth, and diversified investment for the short and long term to generate further value for investors. Specifically, looking in detail at the three main business pillars, the successes are compelling. First, global natural resources. We started up six major projects as planned.
This supported an underlying production increase of 4%, well above our original full-year guidance, and growth above 7% over the 2020 to 2025 period, leading among our peers. Project execution is a clear strength of ours. Both Agogo in Angola and Congo LNG are further examples of our leadership in time to market. In addition, we took FID on four major new projects, three of which are operated, driving a strong reserves replacement ratio of above 160%, and meaning we currently have 500,000 bbl per day of production under development, securing our medium-term outlook. At the portfolio level, we have also established a new platform of growth by creating our largest business combination with PETRONAS in Indonesia and Malaysia. We are progressing our Argentina LNG project with YPF and XRG.
Alongside, our continued exploration success underpins our long-term outlook. We discovered 900 million bbl of new resources in 2025, reaffirming our industry-leading track record. Now, over 10 billion bbl of resources discovered since 2014 at less than $1 per barrel from multiple geographies and different geological plays. Our focus on value as well as volume is also emphasized by our continued action to valorize our resources through Dual Exploration, as we did in Indonesia with the business combination in Côte d'Ivoire and high-grade our portfolio through tail asset divestments. GGP is a business we have comprehensively transformed in the past few years, notwithstanding a softer market, we deliver EBIT above EUR 1 billion for a fourth consecutive year. Gas to Power was also a strong contributor in 2025, together, this result emphasized the work underway to capture more margin from our equity production.
Second are transition activities. They generate material growth and value creation and are important in diversifying and strengthening Eni's earnings. In a year that was not remarkable for market improvement, we proved the robustness of our integrated business models. We have been rewarded with strong earnings, EUR 2 billion of EBITDA, and by the validation from the market with a contribution of EUR 5.8 billion from top private equity firms. These deals were completed in a multiple around, with at multiple around three times those of Eni standalone, implying over EUR 23 billion of enterprise value for these new business lines. We are locking in further growth with both Plenitude and Enilive. Plenitude expanded its renewable capacity by more than 40% in 2025 and will add 10% to its customer base in 2026 on closing the agreed Archer Energy acquisition.
Enilive has three new biorefineries under construction, and two more have recently reached FID, together representing a further net 2 million tons of annual capacity. Third, industrial transformation. Changes in the energy market bring challenges that we are successfully mitigating, but also opportunities. In this context, we are advancing the transformation of our traditional refineries, and we have set out the decisive measures to address challenges in our chemical business that are the same impacting the entire European industry. In 2025, we accelerated these actions, closing the crackers at Brindisi and Priolo three to six months earlier than planned. At the same time, we are transforming Versalis towards bio, circular, and specialized products. The strategic and operational progress achieved in 2025 translates into exceptional financial delivery. Robust financial position is critical in managing the cycle, preserving flexibility, and delivering our strategy.
Last year, CFFO of at EUR 12.5 billion was EUR 1.5 billion ahead of plan on a scenario-adjusted basis. Responding promptly to the more challenging scenario, we cut gross CapEx from a planned EUR 9 billion- EUR 8.5 billion, and we identified cash initiatives totaling EUR 4 billion, raised from an initial EUR 2 billion, including delivering EUR 0.5 billion of savings. Net CapEx on a pro forma basis was lower than EUR 5 billion versus our initial expectation of EUR 6.5 billion-EUR 7 billion, as we executed on more portfolio activity for better value. As a result, pro forma gearing at year-end was 14%, with net debt down almost EUR 3 billion over the year.
These outcomes gave us the opportunity to raise our share buyback by 20% from EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 1.8 billion, achieving the unique combination in 2025 of both lowering debt and enhancing shareholder distribution. In Q4, pro forma adjusted EBIT was EUR 2.9 billion, up 6% year-on-year, despite the lower oil price and weaker dollar. We reported excellent E&P result, with production up 7% year-on-year and 5% sequentially at 1.839 million bbl per day, underpinned by the positive impact of 2025 startups. Full-year production of 1.728 million bbl per day was 2% above our guidance for the year. GGP Q4 EBIT of EUR 0.1 billion delivered on our raised full-year guidance of more than EUR 1 billion, despite relatively low volatile markets.
Planned Enilive together delivered EUR 2 billion of pro forma adjusted EBIT in the year. Enilive benefited from improved bio margins in the quarter, part of setting seasonally lower marketing. Refining returned to profit in the quarter, albeit held back by relatively low utilization rates, while chemicals continued to see a weak scenario, setting the early benefit of the restructuring underway. Q4 adjusted net profit was EUR 1.2 billion, with a tax rate of 37%, as we adjusted to a full-year rate of 44%, just below guidance. CFFO in Q4 was EUR 3 billion, representing excellent cash conversion again, helped by the material cash initiatives we undertook in the year. Full-year cash flow at EUR 12.5 billion was EUR 1.5 billion above our full-year guidance on a scenario-adjusted basis.
Thanks to a release in working capital and our actions around the portfolio, we were able to fund our CapEx, shareholder distributions, and other commitments, also to significantly reduce debt. Gross organic CapEx in the quarter was EUR 2.6 billion, taking the full-year figure to EUR 8.5 billion, EUR 0.5 billion less than our original plan. Valorizations and portfolio activities have raised around EUR 10 billion over the past two years. In 2025, we completed more than EUR 6.5 billion in valorization and portfolio activity, which meant that adjusting to a pro forma basis, net CapEx was lower than EUR 5 billion, around EUR 2 billion below our original plan. 2025 is not a one-off year.
For 2026, we expect to limit our gross CapEx to around EUR 7 billion and net CapEx at around EUR 5 billion. We reduced net debt over 2025 by almost EUR 3 billion, as we said, bringing gearing to 15% at the year-end or 14% on pro forma basis. We can confirm that we expect pro forma gearing in 2026 to remain at historically low levels at between 10%-15%. Our shareholder distribution details, we have to revert to the CMU in March, but we can confirm a full, funded, attractive, and growing dividend is our first priority. In the last five years, we have raised the dividend by an average of 5% per year, reflecting underlying growth and the reduction of share initiation.
At the same time, we have additional tool of distribution via the buyback that reflects our policy of sharing cash flow, generation, and upside. In 2025, for example, we raised the buyback by 20%, the third occasion in the past four years we have increased distributions. In conclusion, 2025 was a clear outcome of Eni strategy in action. Looking ahead, we will update on our plan in March. Strategy remain unchanged. The choices we make in how we do business are driven by our industrial, technological, and commercial strength, and by a business model that has proven to perform in strong and soft market conditions. The upstream will grow organically at a sector-leading rate, leveraging our exploration successes and our proven ability to fast-track time to market, while managing cost and delivering the value from our business combinations and partnerships.
On the energy transition, we will deliver the programs outlined for Plenitude and Enilive, while developing CCS, fusion, battery storage, and data centers for hyperscalers, coupled with blue power and exploring opportunities in critical minerals. Portfolio activity will again be material in 2026 as we continue to pursue disciplined capital alignment and value disclosure. In March, we will share with you the details that underpin this outlook and which support continued highly attractive investor returns. Now, with the rest of Eni top management, are ready to take your question. Thank you.
Thank you. This is the conference operator. Please press star and one for questions. First question is from Alejandro Vigil, Santander.
Yes, hello, thank you for taking my questions, and congratulations for the results. I have two questions about the upstream business. Definitely, you will elaborate more on the Capital Markets Day. I'm very interested in the outlook for this year, thanks to the contribution of the joint venture with PETRONAS. You can elaborate about potential increase in production driven by this joint venture? The second question is about Kazakhstan. There is a lot of noise in the media, and I would like to know your view about the situation in the country. Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Thank you for the questions. I just give you a few word about PETRONAS and the outlook and Kazakhstan, and I give the Guido, I give the, I will give Guido the possibility to expand and elaborate on these two questions. PETRONAS, I think that PETRONAS will be finalized by, I know, the second end of the second quarter. It's going to give a contribution, clearly, yes. We cannot be precise now. I think that we can give you more detail on the, in March, but clearly it's going to give a contribution in term of production for six months.
Well, as you know, we are going to have a immediately a company that is producing about 300,000 bbl per day, but we have already project that we're going to implement after in the next years to reach 500,000 bbl per day. We already drilled Indonesia, as you know, successful wells that we can tie into the existing infrastructure. We talk about reserves, not just resources. Kazakhstan. I think that is a long story because in the last 15 years, every three, two years, we have some, a renegotiation and some, I can say, disputes, but more discussion because we are friends and as always happen between friends, we always find a solutions. I'm positive about the future, but now I think that Guido can take over and give you more detail.
Yeah. Oh. Thanks, Claudio. Barring from more details coming in the next CMU, of course, the growth of production as next year will be driven by the project we have started up recently. We will see more production coming from Congo, from Norway, from Angola, from UAE, and of course, from Indonesia. As I said, more details will come in a few more weeks. As far as Kazakhstan, of course, as you know, the Republic has advanced several arbitration claims regarding production performance, cost recovery, environmental matters, sulfur storage, and the JV is defending.
There's a, there is a broad claim here, which, it's in the arbitration court at the moment, and we do not expect a result before 2027, 2028. However, we continue, as the operator is saying, confirm that operation have been conducted in compliance with the law of Kazakhstan, and the operator had always possessed the required permits. Therefore, we are challenging this sulfur fine in all the courts.
Thank you.
Thanks, Alex. We can now pass over to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele, you want to ask your questions?
Thank you very much, and congratulations on the results. I wanted to ask two questions. First, on your CapEx guidance for EUR 6 billion-EUR 7 billion, I was wondering if you could walk us through the bridge between the EUR 1.5 billion this year and the EUR 7 billion. Clearly, the deconsolidation of Indonesia plays a part, but if you could give us a bit more detail. Secondly, the more we look at all of your discoveries and access in the last couple of years, it feels like you probably have the best pipeline of new projects you've ever had in your corporate history. How should we think about your priorities for FID in 2026, given the wealth of opportunities between Namibia, Indonesia, Côte d'Ivoire, and all of your recent discoveries? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you for the question. It's true, we said that we cut our CapEx, or we reduced our CapEx, from EUR 8.5 billion this year to EUR 7 billion. That is a reduction in term of CapEx optimization. We are not reducing the growth, we are not touching the growth of the company, but just we became more efficient because we have a strategy, or we applied a strategy to be more efficient, starting from the exploration. Exploring and go to the place where we have existing facilities, and then, you know, this year we had a very excellent success. Also last year's, we are moving at EUR 1 billion or less than EUR 1 billion resource discoveries in the right place where we have infrastructure.
That mean that we can continue to reduce CapEx, because we need less CapEx to produce more production. That was a strategy that is not something that you can start overnight. It's something that we start in 2011, 2012, 2013. It's something that we built day by day because we never stop exploration. We never stop exploring. We never stop developing. We never stop going directly to the development and working as upstreamer. That is the reason why we can reduce our gross CapEx. We have other points that maybe Guido can explain to you that is an additional important layers that can explain why we can reduce CapEx. Guido, you can explain.
Yeah, yeah, Claudio, and, I mean, just building on what you were saying about the advantaged bbl. The project we have started up in the last four or five years, and the prospective project, which you will have more visibility in the capital market update, are project with, first of all, low unit development cost. Second, they have longer plateau. We can devote less CapEx to maintain the production and fight the decline, and more CapEx for the growth at the same CapEx level, in a nutshell. As far as concern your, your question, Michele, about the what will come next year, of course, we have a great degree of optionality.
We have a very large and diverse portfolio of project, but clearly, next year, the project that we will focus more in term of FIDs, Argentina, Ivory Coast, Cyprus, plus few more geographies in Africa.
Was that okay, Michele?
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We're gonna now move on to Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. Biraj, if you're there, you ask your questions.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on the CapEx point and the number you guided today, how much of that year-on-year change is the Indonesia CapEx coming out as you deconsolidate it? Is there anything you can say on the CFFO contribution that will be removed also when you deconsolidate that production? The second question is just on Versalis. You've now closed down the crackers, but we haven't seen that sort of come through in the P&L. Do you still expect to be EBIT breakeven in 2027, and what should we expect for 2026? Thank you.
Okay, CapEx and Indonesia, we already said that Indonesia is not, I think that we can start work on Indonesia after the finalization of the business combination of the new company that we expect in the second quarter. I think in any case, the impact on CapEx on Indonesia, we know will not be very large this year, because we have FID to take maybe in 2026, but mainly in 2027. For Versalis, I think Adriano, the CEO of Versalis, can give some answer, some light.
Sure. Thank you for the question. I mean, we have seen some improvement in the second half of 2025, following the shutdown of the two cracker that, as we said before, we move forward and we stop earlier than what was original plan. Unfortunately, the positive impact, although you remember what we said in the previous call, that the impact of the two measure cracker shutdown, you start to see after 12, 18 months. We've seen some positive impact, and these help in order to mitigate the deterioration in the scenario. We've seen improvement in the second half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024, and we continue to see also in the beginning of the months of 2026.
We are taking additional actions in order to mitigate, the plan, that is not coming as expected. In term of scenario, I'm pretty sure that you have seen so many shutdown have been announced in the last three years, close to 160 shutdown announcement. In the next capital market update, we are going to share the plan for the next two, three years.
Thank you. Thanks, Biraj. We're gonna move to Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia, if you're there.
Thank you. Good afternoon. Two questions, if I could, please. The first one, on the exploration side, building a little bit on Michele's question earlier, you've clearly been very, very successful in what you've done. Can you actually give us what the success rate is now? Are we looking at sort of one in two, four out of five? Well, I'm just trying to work out what that success rate is. Secondly, just on AI, clearly, you've got a lot of computing power. I'm just wondering what you're seeing, if you're seeing any benefits at this point or what your plans are around that. Thank you.
Exploration last year, we've been very successful, and success rate was exceptionally high. As you could also notice from the very low write-off we basically written in our books. It was really exceptionally high, very close to 100%, the success rate last year. The AI, as you may be aware, last year, we've opened a new business line on data center, coupled with the gas-fired plant. We have a plan with international partners to develop a data center in the north of Italy, close to Milan, up to 500 MW, split in different phases.
We have a first phase, which will go from 80 MW to 100 MW, and the second phase to 500 MW. This is in an area which is underdeveloped and in a country like Italy, which has foreseen a demand of AI center by 2030. The impact, of course, we are forerunner in term of application of technology and super computational capacity on our activity, and the exploration success is one example of it.
Of course, AI will apply also on other segment of the business in the upstream, like the production improvement, drilling and project improvement, rotating machine enhancement. We expect a significant impact on the AI. Just to remind that in the industry, we have already the one of the lowest downtime for the production facilities, which is around which is less than 1%, while the average of the industry with MAC data is around 3.5%.
Brilliant. Thank you.
Thanks, Lydia. We're now gonna move to Irene Himona at Bernstein. Irene, if you're there?
Yes, good afternoon. Congratulations on a strong year, especially in the upstream. Can you please say, firstly, what did you change exactly to high-grade production? What, what does that involve? Secondly, can you remind us what upstream tax rate we should expect in an environment of $65-$70 Brent? Finally, very quickly, looking at the 10 billion boe resource you have discovered since 2014, can you say roughly what the split is between gas and liquids, please? Thank you.
On what, on the what we did, basically question of the high grading, of course, in our portfolio, we are bringing on stream project with very high profitable cash flow per barrel, and we are divesting late life assets. So the combination of these two elements, so the new project and the late life asset disposal is high grading our portfolio and you may also seen that if we compare the free cash flow per barrel from 2024 to 2025, we have seen a 10% increase. On the tax rate?
Sorry, before talking about the tax rate, you remarked a very successful increase in our production. Absolutely what Guido said is true. We have a different quality in term of barrel, so higher cash flow per barrel, but also we have been successful in the last years to be in term of time to market and budget. We have been able to not only respect our schedule, but be, in most of the case, faster. That clearly impacted positively the production, impacted internal rate of return of all our projects, and we respected on all the budgets.
That is something that maybe is not clear or explicit to all, to everybody, to investor, to all our community, but that is one key point of success in term of result and the value of our volume. Tax rate?
On the tax rate, as you have seen, there is a fluctuation that are mainly related to, clearly to the composition. In this case, you mentioned the upstream tax rate. On the composition in term of production and contribution of different counties on the exploration rate of, and some additional or one-off factor that could, imply or determine certain effects. In 2026, the expectation is to, with a $62, that is, for the time being, our assumption, a tax rate that should be in the range of 45%-50%. Clearly, if the price will improve, there will be a lower tax rate.
Just to complete, you made another question. The split between oil and gas of the discovery is 70% gas and 30% oil.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, Irene. We are now going to move over to Josh Stone at UBS. Josh?
Yeah, thanks. Hi, Jon, and good afternoon, everyone. Two questions, please. One, I wanted to pick up on this Italian energy reform that got passed and whether you had a chance to estimate the initial impacts, 'cause it looks like there's. It's quite complicated, lots of moving parts. It's connected to gas spreads, ETS and tax. Maybe you could just talk about how you're thinking about that. Is it a net positive or net negative, and the different impacts on your different parts of the businesses? That'd be useful. Thanks.
Second question on the buyback. I know we've got to be patient for the actual number, but I was hoping you could maybe share just your thought process here and the importance you put on buybacks after the rerating of your stock. Am I right in saying when you set this buyback, you'll be using the $62 oil price deck for 2026? Thanks.
About the energy bill that you were referring in Italy, clearly, the impact is slightly negative but quite marginal because you have to consider that, as Eni, we are not just a supplier and a producer, but we are also an important industrial player in the country with different activities, spanning from the refinery, chemicals, biorefineries, and also certain upstream activity, clearly. You have to consider that the overall effect is mitigated by this double exposure. Is absolutely, let's say, marginal towards the overall performance of Eni. In term of buyback, I was mentioning before, the reference is $62 for the expectation for the next year. In term of pricing, we have to confirm at the next Capital Market Day.
Clearly, you know what is the structure of our distribution policy. One, we set up a buyback that is clearly the variable component of our distribution. This is a floor, and historically, we proved that this is a floor because we raised the floor three times in four years. The scope is substantially to share the upside that will emerge both in the performance and the scenario to our investors. We will provide all the details in the Capital Market Day at the end of March.
Very good. Thank you.
Thanks, Josh. Now we are looking for Alastair Syme. Al at Citigroup. Oh, Al has disappeared off the list. Apologies. We're going to move to Matt Lofting at JP Morgan.
Thanks. Hi, everybody, congratulations on the strength of execution throughout 2025. Just two quick questions from my side. First, coming back to the net debt and gearing targets, I wondered, you mentioned Asia and the JV earlier. I wondered whether there was any other accounting effects in those targets, including any allowance for a possible deconsolidation of Plenitude, which I know has been sort of talked about in the past. Secondly, Eni is obviously one of the companies in the industry that's retained a presence in Venezuela. Do you have any thoughts at this point on the near- and longer- term upside that could sit there for you in the country, and how you'd sort of think about ranking that within the range of portfolio opportunities that you have from a capital allocation and risk award perspective? Thank you.
Thank you. Francesco, look after gearing, and I'm look after Venezuela.
Okay, clearly about the gearing target that we provide you is a, let's say, as an effect of a number of action and levers. As we said before, there is a strong operational performance, cash flow improvement, CapEx efficiency, and clearly the satellites model that helps to, let's say, transform this potential contribution in term of growth in standalone companies or entities that will be able by themselves to provide the debt. We are studying different solution. You were referring to Plenitude, but clearly we are working on different concept and potentially this could be, but is something that will be eventually disclosed at the proper time.
Okay. Well, what I can say that for sure is an upside for us, an upside from several point of view, which are not just one, two, maybe three upside, different kind of upside. The first one that, through the General License, number 50, that has been issued a few days before, you know, one week, I think. We can recover our gas. Venezuela can pay through using crude the gas that we deliver to the domestic market. That is already a big upside. Before, we were stuck for almost one year. That created a build-up of our outstanding. Now that is done. There is a second upside. We have blocks, we have oil.
We are in one of the best block in the Orinoco Belt. We are also offshore with Corocoro. That possible additional development can use to recover the past cost or the past outstanding, that's around EUR 3 billion, and that is another upside. For sure, we are working with some American companies to see if we are create a joint venture to develop this field that are producing. Clearly, they can grow our production quite quickly, and that is a possible upside. The third upside is gas. Gas is something that is needed.
You have to consider that the US has to increase, or deliver additional $20 billion, more $20 billion, in one year, less than one year, because with the sanction on the energy gas, Russian gas, we need to compensate this $20 billion. U.S. they have to increase, but U.S. need also gas domestic market. The gas that we discover, about 20 TCF in Perla, with additional prospect, that are really located in the right position, not just to deliver domestic gas, but also to export to Europe, is a third opportunity. Clearly, these are in line with what President Trump wants. I mean, develop the oil and gas in Venezuela, for Venezuela first, but also, to create a different kind of environment in the region. I see that very positively.
Thank you, Matt.
Thank you.
Thanks, Matt. We move to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin?
Yeah, to be honest, most my questions have largely been asked, but I've got one left. There have been a couple of articles saying that you're interested in sort of revitalizing some of the Oil Trading business within Eni, and including some partnerships with some other firms. I was wondering if you could provide some color around that issue, what your thoughts are in that area?
We've started a journey to improve our trading and extract more value from this segment of the business. First of all, we've created one single organization. We have put under one umbrella all the trading arms of the company, all along the value chain to extract all the margins. That's number one. Number two, we have changed also some of our approaches to the risk. We are becoming a little bit less risk adverse. Number three, we are, of course, looking at different way to do business. In doing that, of course, we have started a dialogue with some international trading players, in the recent months.
Okay, thank you.
Thanks, Martin. We are going to move to Massimo Bonisoli at Equita. Massimo?
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my two questions. One on CapEx. Net M&A was around $4 billion in 2025, roughly $2 billion above the initial guidance, with EUR 2 billion target also for 2026, does this implicitly rise your opportunities over the four-year plan? I'm curious to understand if you have more options in your portfolio than one- year ago. The second question on biofuels. How do you see biofuel trading environment evolving in 2026, particularly in terms of margins and market balance between supply and demand? Thank you.
Yes, thank you, Massimo. About the net CapEx in the portfolio factor, as you can see, we continue to upgrade our portfolio to leverage on our capability to execute and to explore and to have success for the Dual Exploration Model, to valorize, as we have done so far, the business line that will be recognized as valuable through the transition. There is a large list of opportunity. As I remember last year, we declared there was a risk amount, and the result at the end, in term of value and the higher effect is the fact that clearly we had a positive result at the end.
On term of this year, effect of EUR 2 billion, you can also already appreciate that we completed in early January, the first disposal. It was the Ivory Coast top up, and this is something that is already on our on our let's say results. We are moving to additional progress or activity related in particular, you know, Indonesia, 10%, is a program that is ongoing and some other additional element. We continue to work, and you should expect as we had last year, eventually upside as because we generally risk our overall portfolio program.
Yeah, on biofuel, thanks for the question, Massimo. Biofuel, we see the development is absolutely constructive. We estimate biofuel demand in 2026 above 20 million. This year is going to be around 16 million, a significant step up. It's going to be driven mainly by Europe and U.S. Main reason for this demand growth is twofold. In Europe, is the well-known Renewable Energy Directive number three. We quoted the Germany example, even in previous call. I just want to add that on top of getting extra GHG reduction target and the ban of double counting, they are even asking to allow site investigation in foreign countries that are providing flows to Germany in order to be that flow accountable. This is actually a positive evolvement for the supply-demand balance. This is another good news.
Talking about U.S., actually, just yesterday, the EPA said that, within the end of March, they want to finalize the new renewable volume target. Expectation is to have a significant increase, between 35% and 40% increase. We are seeing this already on the RIN prices. RIN prices improved by 40% from the beginning of the year, this happened without an improvement in term of RIN generation. This means that, in order to cope with the new EPA target, we need to have a RIN generation improvement, and this is going to drive economic margins improvement itself. Last comment, this year, we saw a reduction, a destocking of the RIN banking.
It's about EUR 500 million destocking, this is a turning point that revert the trends that we saw previous year when the RIN banking actually got exactly in the opposite direction with an increase of EUR 2 billion. We expect this trend to definitely move forward and to rebalancing the supply demands overall.
Clear. Thank you.
Thanks, Stefano. Thanks, Massimo. We're going to move now to Mark Wilson at Jefferies. Mark, if you're online.
Okay. Thank you. good afternoon. you said earlier how the strategic path that has got you where you are in upstream is not one that you can start overnight. The exploration, the infrastructure, as you say, you've never stopped. Now, you also spoke to AI impacting exploration, on the last call, you spoke to the technical hedge that floating LNG is giving you. My question is that it's impossible to have this kind of delivery alone. I'd like to ask which third-party areas other than the ones already spoken to, across your upstream partners or indeed, oil field service contractors, where's the greatest improvement been to assist your delivery? Is it drilling, reservoir characteristic, E&C cycle time, shipyards? Is it something else? That would be my question. Thank you.
Thank you for the question. It's very interesting. No, first of all, we are never alone in the life. I have a lot of colleagues with me in Eni, we are not alone in term of strategy. When other company outsourcing, we insourcing, that mean that we kept in our company all the main competencies. That started in the 2000, and so 2000 now and 2000, 2011, 2012, we decide to insource. We didn't follow the mainstream that say, reduce cost, and may your contractors as a main contractor, they do everything turnkey. We want to take our end in each project, that means that in the last, I think 16, 17 years, we put our competencies and we increase our competencies in all the different segment of our business.
I talk about AMP, not only. We increase the R&D investment, we open up seven R&D centers, we increase our R&D people at 1200 people, we have in our end, technology in drilling reservoir, or seismic, and development, we made a revolution in our time to market. We are the best, we can say, in time to market. We are not alone, we are alone in term of the choices we made in the last 15 years. I think that is the main reason. I don't know if we share this point or want to say something else. I hope, I think-
It couldn't be better said. It couldn't be better said.
I think it was very well said. Thank you very much. I'll hand it over.
Thank you, Mark. We're gonna move to Paul Redman at BNP Paribas. Paul?
Hi, guys. Thank you very much for your time. Just two, please. First was, you achieved EUR 4 billion of cash initiative benefit in 2025. I wanted to ask how much of that is roll or could roll over into 2026? Secondly, I know people have asked, but kind of, and it is early, seeing you've got a capital market then a few weeks time. I wanted to ask about how you think about allocating to shareholder. You currently allocate based on percentage of cash flow from operations, but you've clearly paid above that percentage, and I think part of that has been driven by acceleration of divestments. This year, your guide is EUR 2 billion of divestment. I wanted to ask if you still believe that percentage of cash flow from operations is the appropriate way to allocate cash flow to shareholders? Thank you.
First of all, about the cash initiative, you've seen that we executed. I think that there is a lot of evidence through the result that we achieved, that we start away with EUR 2 billion, we raised it to EUR 3 billion and then EUR 4 billion, and we performed. Most of that are one-off factor. That doesn't mean that they will be reverted, but actually will be rolling. We are executing our cash management in a different way than before, optimizing the time to market of these cash needs, and there were a lot of opportunity. We continue to study because I believe that in generally, in managing a huge amount of cash in a company's Eni, there is still a lot of pockets or upside that are have to be discovered.
There's a sort of treasury search that we look for. We do expect something also, but this is probably. We have to wait a bit, three weeks, for additional disclosure. On the cash flow from operation reference, the idea of having cash flow from operation as a starting point for distribution is because we want to put the shareholders at the top of our priority. The first line of cash flow is the cash flow from operation, pre-working capital, and clearly, there is all the other factor that come later on. The free cash flow could be another way to distribute.
Clearly, you have to change the percentage because you are speaking about different absolute figures, but at the end of the day, the logic of having cash flow from operation is giving the reference in term of priority versus the distribution line. We will see again, also in the next capital market day, what will be the announcement and what will be eventually the percentage that we allocate.
Thank you, Paul.
Thank you.
Thanks, Paul. We're gonna go to the last question. We found Alastair. Al, are you around? Al at Citigroup.
I'm here. Thanks, Jon. Thanks for coming back. Yeah, the question I had was really on. Well, I mean, there's been a lot of commentary in Italy and across the European Union about the European Carbon Scheme, the ETS. You have a foot in several camps here. You're a carbon emitter, you're a power generator, you got a CCS business. Can you give us a sense of where you think the political discussion is, and what, if any, changes you would like to see? If I could poke in a second question, do you have any update on the well you're drilling offshore Libya? Thank you.
Libya offshore, we are currently drilling one exploration well, and we'll announce result when they become available, of course.
No, I think that we are very ready to talk about drilling, reservoir explorations and all we want, but on ETS, honestly, we cannot give you a lot of light. It's a tax that you pay. I don't know. Honestly, you know, there is a big debate today because in Europe, the industry is suffering a lot. It's not growing. In the contrary, they are squeezing the industry in Europe with all the different kind of taxes and green deals that impacted negatively all the kind of industry. ETS is one of these taxes, and Europe is the only country that apply these taxes at a very high level.
When we talk at competition with the rest of the world, it's not easy to compete when the other are not really applying the same kind of rules. That is what I can say, but I'm not one to enter into any political debate. It is not our business. I prefer to increase production and good, and get good results for my company, instead to cry about taxes I'm paying. Thank you.
Claudio, can I ask, does it make you think differently about putting capital in the CCS business, given that, you know, there is a potential that the legislation could change?
I think that is change has been made already. There have been this taxonomy, and there's been accepted, at least, at the moment, in Holland and especially U.K. and now in Italy. We have at least three countries that where the CCS can be developed. In U.K., they made a big, I think, effort for the future, and for that reason, they now the investment started and also the project has been sanctioned. In Holland, I think that is going to follow, and Italy, we are very close to have a new law, but we have a huge amount of potential to be explored. We constitute the company.
We already got interest from investors, we are already an investor with us in the company. I'm positive, Europe, after years, now they accepted this important tool to reduce CO2 emissions. Clearly, the CCS is the counterpart of the ETS because so the capture now is not matching yet. Now with the ETS, that is close to EUR 90 or between EUR 80 and EUR 90 per ton, I think that the CCS, based on the existing assets, not a new development, is very good. Is from an economic point of view, is very positive.
Yep, thank you.
Thanks, Claudio. Thanks, Al. That brings us to the end of the call. Thank you very much for your attention, both today and through 2025, and we look forward to speaking to you all at, in greater detail on the new strategy and plan or the strategy and the new plan on the March 19th. We'll see you all then. Thank you very much.