Good afternoon, welcome to Eni's 2023 C apital Market Update and 2022 Full Year Results. We are delighted to see you all here at our first full in-person since 2019. We are hosting this event at the Gazometro Room. That is a piece of our history that we are transforming into an innovative district of new energies. We meet today in a scenario characterized by high volatility and uncertainties. Fragile energy security and the worst inflationary environment in decades. We recognize the need to be agile and flexible in responding to these challenges, keeping a sharp focus on our strategy to be effective, both on near-term targets and on pursuing our long-term transformation and decarbonization. The last 12 months demonstrate how we successfully face these challenges, striking the right balance between short and long-term priorities.
While the urgency of achieving environmental sustainability and changing the energy mix remain a priority on our path to net zero in 2050, it is now even clearer that it has to be pursued side by side with energy security and affordability, the other essential pillars of the energy system dilemma. This means building a geographical and technological diversification of energy sources, creating, in the medium to long term, a different energy mix and deploying breakthrough technologies. The continued strong gas demand we are experiencing after the pandemic confirms the crucial role of gas as a bridge energy source on the decarbonization path.
In Eni, we have continued to explore for and develop new gas resources while also investing in methane emission reduction, diversifying our geographical presence, leveraging our near field exploration and fast-track development approach to reduce time to market, something which is even more relevant in the current scenario. While geographical diversification is critical for energy security, a neutral and diversified technological approach is also essential for the transition toward the low carbon energy system. For that reason, our strategy is grounded on a continuous focus on new technologies and a fast-track deployment. It is only through technology that we can develop a diversified energy mix and support energy security while continuing to create value. The necessity to work for energy security and for environmental sustainability implies greater demand on capital and resources.
In order to address the cash allocation issue to strike the right balance between investment and returns, we have developed dedicated entities that are capable of independently accessing capital markets to find their growth and to reveal the real value of each business. In fact, these businesses can access additional specialized pool of capital, optimizing any financial structure while leveraging any technologies, knowhow, and services. In upstream, satellites will continue to bring new volume to the market while freeing additional capital and deliver dividends. In Energy Evolution, dedicated entities will enable us to capture the higher multiples that the market attributes to such businesses. Focusing on 2022, as we said, the year was a demonstration of how we are tackling the short and long-term challenges.
Our company mounted a remarkable response in addressing the disruption in the energy market, recording outstanding financial and operational performance while continuing to develop along our strategic path. Our mid-stream gas operation delivered against a scenario of severe market turmoil. This outcome showcased the importance of the integration inside our Natural Resources of our upstream and UGP business, for which we changed our organization 3 year ago. Such integration has contributed to helping us avoid some of the very severe outcomes experienced by the European utility sector. Upon the outbreak of the war, we reacted decisively and rapidly to mitigate the supply risk, replacing 50% of the gas we would normally import from Russia, thanks to our upstream resources and strong partnership, mainly in North Africa and West Africa.
By winter 2023/2024, we will be able to replace 80% and 100% by 2025, making our GGP business more valuable and flexible with a larger equity and LNG supply component. The capability to replace Russian gas is also underwritten by another strong year in exploration, finding 700 million barrel of resources well ahead of our original target. Indeed, we have already succeeded in putting in production some of these discoveries. In upstream, we launched important FIDs, progressed our development project, and delivered new startups on time and on budget. I also want to highlight the speed and effectiveness of our downstream in reacting to the crisis. We reported record results, capturing the financial scenario by excellent operational performance and further upside by materially reducing energy costs.
Looking at new energy, we expanded our biorefining footprint and developed our vertical integration, delivering the first cargoes of vegetable oil produced from our agri-hub in Kenya to our biorefineries in Italy and producing the first Eni Biojet. Internal satellite structure in 2022, we completed the IPO of Vår Energi. We also constituted the new company, Azule Energy, merging our asset with BP's to create Angola's largest independent producer. We continue to grow Plenitude, which with the Sustainable Mobility company, will allow us to tackle Scope 3 emissions. The challenges of the past years have not deflected us from our decarbonization objective. We have cut our Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 33% versus 2018, in line with our objective of reaching 65% by 2025. We reiterate that gas is crucial for the transition, requires proper management of methane emissions.
Eni's long been committed to reducing methane emission and keeping upstream methane intensity well below 0.2%. In order to further improve the accuracy and transparency of methane emissions reporting, we are progressing with a measurement campaign on our main operated asset with a third party that will be finalized this year. On this basis, we will set a new methane emission target. Last year, we generate record earnings of EUR 13.3 billion and record returns on capital employed of 22%. While this scenario played its part, it is very significant contribution from self-help and performance improvement across the entire organization. Notably, both GGP and downstream materially beat their initial 2022 guidance. Our strong earnings converted into exemplary cash performance.
We generated EUR 20.4 billion of underlying CFFO, absorbing EUR 1.3 billion in working capital and funding EUR 8.2 billion of capital expenditure, + EUR 2.5 billion of additional inorganic investment. We rewarded investor with our dividend, as well as buying back EUR 2.4 billion of our shares, reducing the share issue by 5.5%. The total returns equates to a yield of 12.3% on the average share price of last year. Meanwhile, we also use surplus fund to reduce our leverage by over one-third to 13%. Now some more details about our main businesses, turning firstly to the Natural Resources Division. Natural Resources Division will deliver accretive growth with falling emission, driven by our leading exploration integrated fast-track project.
Our midstream gas was proved its resilience and will increasingly benefit from equity gas supply. We are meeting an emission reduction target, also building a new carbon capture business and integrating with our biorefining by developing an innovative agri-hub network. Exploration is consistently high-performing and also high-characterizing for Eni and differentiating for Eni. 2022 was another outstanding year. We discover resources equivalent to 125% of our production at less than $2 per barrel, building on a consistent 10-year record. We have added the resources across multiple basin, geologies, and geographies, namely from Algeria, Ivory Coast, Cyprus, Egypt, and the UAE. Following our Dual Exploration Model, we are targeting explorations with high levels of equity participations in areas with existing activity and infrastructures such as North Africa, North and West Africa, UAE, around 90% of our spend.
Our leveraging on of high level of technology and know-how allow us to go back to mature geology basin with different eyes to find new structures, as happened in the recent past in country like Angola, Congo, Egypt, Ivory Coast, where in the 2015-2022 period, we have discovered more than 4 billion barrel of resources. In the context of the transition, we continue to target near field exploration and 60% of discoveries to be gas, supporting the evolution of our production portfolio toward lower emissions. With the same purpose and through the same strategy, we will invest EUR 2.1 billion over the next 4 years, targeting 2.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent at around $1.5 per barrel of exploration costs. Exploration complements our upstream development strategy.
Optimizing time to market of our project is a focus for us, and a differentiating characteristic of Eni in lowering risks. A recent Wood Mackenzie report estimated that our time to market is around 3.5 years, twice as fast as the industry average. Applying this strategy means that we have organically developed an upstream portfolio that contains high quality assets and opportunities, which will be used to grow, create value, and drive down emissions. The high quality of our portfolio is well illustrated by the numbers in terms of breakeven, around $20 per barrel, with technical cost and discounted cash flow per barrel that are the top of the industry. We will be discussing all of that during our breakout section.
Our exploration activity and fast development strategy is more detailed during this breakout session that we have after the presentation and the Q&A. Our focus in upstream is driven by delivering a double value. From one side, economic result, and from the other side, emission reduction. The two things must go together. That is the real value. We can grow value while increasing returns and reducing emissions. Thanks to technologies, the shift in portfolio mix, and energy efficient measures. The coming years will see significant activity. 2023 sees the startup of the first phase of Baleine in Ivory Coast and Congo LNG, startups in Egypt, UAE, and Norway, and the continued development program in Algeria. 2024 sees startups in Italy, Egypt, Ivory Coast again with Baleine Phase 2, Kazakhstan, and Norway.
These projects together will bring into production around 1 billion barrel of 2P reserves. At the same time, we expect to approve a number of high quality FIDs, including the A-E structures in Libya, Ghasha, and the expansion of Lower Zakum in UAE, plus Ivory Coast, Kazakhstan, Angola, and possible new activity in the Eastern Mediterranean. Put together, this means that we expect an average production growth of 3%-4% over the 4-year plan period. By 2026, we will have added around 800,000 barrel per day from the startups and ramp-ups, with high returns, short payback, and leading unitary costs. As we said, with close attention to our value growth, we also deliver a decrease in our Scope 1 and 2 net carbon footprint by 65% by 2025 versus 2018.
We confirm upstream to be Scope 1 and 2 net zero by 2030. GGP successfully came through a challenging year, having managed a material cut from its largest supplier. Looking forward, we are working on the assumption that we receive no Russian gas volumes. We confirm that we will progressively replace these volumes, reaching more than 20 BCM per year of extra supply by 2025. 9 BCM will be supplied by pipe, and the balance mainly from LNG integrated with our portfolio. Gas is and will be a critical component in the European energy mix. In 2022, the south-north axis, the supply route from the Mediterranean, has demonstrated its role, potentially becoming an alternative to the northeast-west corridor from Russia. Eni is central to this, considering the huge resources and the infrastructure connection that we have in North Africa.
A more diversified and flexible portfolio with larger equity component alongside growing LNG in Asia implies higher results for our GGP segment. In fact, we expect to be able to generate around EUR 1.7 billion TO EUR 2.2 billion in 2023. Even on the assumption that the natural gas prices and the volatility fall during the plan period, we still see 4 years plan EBIT totaling more than EUR 4 billion from GGP. Natural Resources will address emission both through its operation and portfolio initiatives and by building new businesses. In this context, CCS will contribute to cutting our own net emission also by providing solution for other hard to abate emitters beyond the energy sector. We have material project under development using depleted reservoirs, existing infrastructure, well-defined economics.
One of the most advanced INET based around Liverpool Bay is on track to start up in 2025, with initial 4.4 million ton per year of CO2 stored. Ravenna phase one took FID in December 2022, and will start up in early 2024. We are also advancing a second U.K. project using our depleted Hewett field, aimed at decarbonizing the Bacton and Thames Estuary areas, potentially ready by 2027, as well as pursuing opportunities in North Africa and in the Middle East. Our Natural Resources division is also supporting our biorefining activities by addressing the potential bottleneck of feedstock availability and cost. Uniquely, we are vertically integrating bio agricultural hubs in Africa. Our agri feedstock supply chain is certified not in competition with food production, and helps to diversify economies and creating new employment opportunities in the communities where we operate.
This slide is a brief recap of the key Natural Resources target that amply demonstrate how we will be able to deliver greater volumes and value while lowering our breakeven and respecting emission reduction target. Turning to Energy Evolution, the division which includes traditional and green refinery and marketing, Versalis and Plenitude. Together, these represent a portfolio of solution to meet the decarbonized energy need and to achieve our Scope 3 emission targets. With this aim, in January, we incorporated Eni Sustainable Mobility in line with our announcement last March. We are combining biorefining, biomethane, and the sale of mobility product and services. Our ambitious plan is to evolve this entity into a multi-energy company and multi-service, generating and unlocking new value.
As a consequence, we are accelerating our targeted biorefining capacity that is now expected to reach more than 3 million tons per year by 2025, versus 2 million tons previously, and more than 5 million tons by 2030. In November, we launched a feasibility on a third Italian biorefinery in Livorno, and in December, we announced a joint study with Petronas Euglena for the development of a biorefinery in Malaysia. Just last week, we announced our agreement with PBF Energy for a 50/50 joint venture for a biorefinery of about 1.1 million tons per year in Louisiana. In each of these cases, we will be using our Ecofining technology.
A unique element of our biorefining strategy is the vertical integration with the production of vegetable oil and waste and residues that is expected to secure 700,000 tons of feedstock per year by 2026. The new company incorporates a network of over 5,000 sales points in Europe to market and distribute a number of new energy carriers such as electricity, biomethane, and in perspective, hydrogen. Our sustainable aviation fuel, Eni Biojet, is already used for commercial and cargo flights from Milan and Rome Airport, and is being tested for use in the aerospace, defense, and security sectors. We now expect our Sustainable Mobility operation to generate EUR 1.5 billion of EBITDA by 2026, earlier than foreseen last March. This converts into an EBIT contribution of well over EUR 1 billion of high quality, lower volatility and growing results.
In 2022, we cut energy costs for our refineries by EUR 800 million versus a standard 2021 setup. We have optimized our throughput, focusing on a plant reliability and flexibility, and leveraged our trading capability to deliver record results in R&M. By retaining these structural improvements, traditional refining will continue to generate profit through the transformation process and even as refining margins normalize to lower levels. As a result, refining and marketing with the contribution from our other operation is expected to generate adjusted performance EBIT of around EUR 1.4 billion in 2026. Now Versalis. We will continue to transform Versalis into a fully specialized and sustainable chemical company by increasing its presence in end user markets and building a leadership position in bio-based chemistry.
We will look to grow in target markets with investment in our compounding platform and in new technologies. We also intend to grow in polymers, but in particular increase the share of specialized product from the current 20% of total company revenues to at least 35%, equivalent to around half of total polymers by 2025 6. Versalis will move into sustainable profitability over the course of our plan, thanks to the transformation to a structurally more competitive business mix. Now Plenitude. Plenitude is maturing and executing on its pipeline of renewable projects and delivering its 2022 target more than 2 GW of installed capacity, more than doubling last year's capacity.
We also deliver our target of 600 more than EUR 600 million in pro forma EBITDA in 2022. We expect to triple this figure to EUR 1.8 billion by 2026, with a balanced contribution from each of the business lines. Our earning growth is underpinned by our operational outlook. We will have installed 3 GW by the end of 2023 and over 7 GW by capacity by the end of 2026. This growth outlook is sustained by a pipeline of around 11 GW of projects and opportunities. We will also more than double our network of EV charging points to over 30,000 by the end of the plan. It is really important to remember how unique the Plenitude model is. The integration of retail with over 11 million customers by 2026, renewables, and e-mobility provides diversification and financial resilience.
Here we have a recap of a key Energy Evolution target. The transformation of legacy businesses that widen Eni's perimeter, unlock value and growth, and support our customers in reducing their emission. Technology. Technology is at the heart of our strategy and transformation, from exploration to faster time to market of our projects, from biorefineries to the green chemistry and future breakthroughs. We have greatly accelerated our investment, leading to around 8,000 patents and more than 400 projects. We have significantly enhanced our collaboration with leading universities and expanded our innovation ecosystem that now includes our venture capital and Eni Next focusing on higher potential startup and Eni Invest aim at scaling prepared technology for new business opportunities.
To place this into further context, we estimate that the value creation of our prepared technology is at around EUR 9 billion since 2014, and the value of Eni Next portfolio to be EUR 1.1 billion at the end of 2022. Probably the highest profile investment of Eni Next is in CFS, the MIT spin-off aiming at accelerating the development of magnetic confinement fusion. At CFS, SPARC, an experimental plant designed to generate energies, is under construction and targeted for a 2025 start-up. SPARC will be followed by the first industrial plant, called ARC, expected in the early 2030s. Having covered the main business perspective, I will pass over to Francesco to summarize the financial aspects of our strategy and outlook.
Thank you, Claudio. Our financial strengths enables the execution of our business strategy, provides flexibility across the cycle, and deliver returns to our investors. Under our 2023 scenario, we anticipate an EBIT of EUR 13 billion for Eni, the second best in 10 years after the record of 2022. That is a further confirmation of the quality of the business we are building. We expect this to translate into CFFO before the effect of working capital of over EUR 17 billion. In a constant 2023 scenario, we calculate underlying growth in CFFO to 2026 of over 25% of or around EUR 5 billion versus 2023. While E&P remains the largest business, and will grow at 3%-4%, adding higher value barrels. We see positive contribution from all the sectors, and growth from the main transition businesses, Plenitude and Sustainable Mobility.
Our new plan incorporates raised earnings outlooks for GGP, Refining and Marketing, and Plenitude. To place that into further perspective, this means that at cost and condition, Eni generates over 13 average ROCE over 2023-2026, 7 percentage points higher than 2010-2019. We are delivering top line growth and improving our capital productivity. Updating for a moment on the issue of windfall taxes. In 2022, the Italian extra-profit levy specifically cost Eni EUR 1 billion, and additional windfall taxes in U.K., a total of EUR 0.1 billion. In 2023, we estimate that the levy in Italy will cost EUR 0.5 billion, and this, along with other anticipated taxes in the rest of Europe, is included in our financial projections. Our updated CapEx outlook strikes a considered balance between reinvestment for competitive growth and maintaining our capital discipline.
We expect to invest EUR 37 billion over the next four-year cycle, a 15% increase in US dollar terms versus the outlook we provided last year. This rise is largely a positive outcome reflecting some new high quality opportunities and the acceleration or increase in scale of existing project in the upstream, which also add to production beyond the planned dates. Some of the spending relates to restoring underlying investment reduction forced by the 2021 pandemic. By way of comparison, our average upstream CapEx over the four-year period to 2026 is still over 10% down versus the US dollars spent in 2019, the year before COVID. We anticipate 2023 CapEx will be around EUR 9.5 billion. We continue to raise our ambition around low and zero carbon energy.
We expect to spend around 25% of CapEx in this area over the planned period, with 30% of the budget in 2026. Active management of our portfolio will continue to play an important role in delivering our strategy. We expect to high grade across the portfolio, rationalizing the tail of non-core asset and country with more focus on the OECD, new energies, and gas. In addition to our 2022 dividend of EUR 0.88 per share, we repurchased 5.5% of shares in issuance for an average price of EUR 12.3. This implies a total payout of 27% of our adjusted CFFO, entirely organically funded. Our excellent financial and strategic progress provides scope to enhance and simplify our remuneration policy.
Going forward, we intend to distribute between 25%-30% of annual cash flow from operation by way of a combination of dividend and share buyback. Expected underlying performance improvement and the buyback provides scope for the dividend to continue to rise in the coming years. For 2023, we are proposing a dividend of 0.94 EUR per share, a 7% increase on 2022. With our expectation for the scenario and the performance of the business, we are also announcing our intention to repurchase EUR 2.2 billion, equivalent to 4.5% of shares in issues at the current share price. Against our previous policy, this represent a doubling of the buyback at the same scenario. In condition that exceeds our scenario, we expect to apply 35% of incremental cash flow to additional buybacks.
We exited 2022 with the strongest balance sheet in our history. During 2022, we reduced debt, include the lease liability by EUR 2.3 billion, and by EUR 2 billion ex-leases, cutting leverage by 700 basis point. Around 70% of our debt is long-term, with an average duration of 5 years. Over 85% of our long-term debt has fixed the interest, and over 75% is denominated in EUR. We have transformed our financial tools. Our new credit slides have been 100% sustainable linked since 2021, and all our new senior bond issuance is 100% sustainable. In January, we completed a highly successful placement of EUR 2 billion in 5-year sustainable linked bonds to Italian retail investors. Our capital structures also contain EUR 5 billion of hybrid bonds.
At year-end, we held close to EUR 20 billion in cash equivalent, and other financial assets providing significant liquidity. Crucially, this balance sheet flexibility combines with CapEx and distribution flexibility, and a low break-even to mean Eni can manage through the type of severe market volatility we experienced over 2020, 2022. Historically, we have discussed target leverage of between 20%-30%. In the plan, we anticipate continue to be below the bottom end of that range, at between 10% - 20%, with actual outcomes dependent on investment timing and working capital needs. To summarize, our raised cash flow outlook is driven by contribution from all the business. This funds a capital discipline investment program and will see us maintain a balance sheet with low gearing and high liquidity, providing resilience and flexibility.
Finally, we are significantly enhancing and simplifying our distribution policy. With that, I would like to turn back to Claudio for concluding remarks.
Thank you, Francesco. Now some insights of the key elements of our long-term strategy. We will continue to grow Eni's value as we evolve the company through our portfolio that give us significant optionality. We see our upstream production growing through 2026, and we expect it to plateau to 2030. We confirm that oil will decline in our mix and gas will continue to rise. Our next, our upstream net zero Scope 1 and 2 targets by 2030 remains firm. In biorefining, by 2030, we will reach more than 5 million tons of capacity, and in renewables we will exceed 15 GW. Plenitude's customer base will reach over 15 million, while the number of charging points will have close to tripled.
CCS is a critical technology for our transition, and we expect to see a strong growth, reaching a gross capacity of more than 30 million tons per year by 2030. Moreover, fusion energy has the potential to be an accelerator in our transformation after 2030. From an emission perspective, we confirm Scope 1, 2, and 3 reduction of 35% by 2030 versus 2018, en route to a 80% reduction by 2040, reaching net zero by 2050. Now, to conclude, Eni remain focused on tackling each of the challenges of the energy trilemma: achieving environmental sustainability by also pursuing energy security and affordability. Integration, diversification, speed, flexibility, and technology are at the core of our actions in term of value growth and de-risking all our businesses.
To be able to face short and long-term challenges, our capital allocation is and will be sustainable by cash flow from our operations and by the satellite model, achieving a more appropriate evaluation of our businesses. Our excellent operational performance, coupled with financial result and strengthened financial position, allow us to enhance our distribution policy further to reward our shareholders. With that, I conclude my remarks, and with Francesco and the rest of the team, I look forward to answering your question. Thank you.
All right. I'm curious to see these people from the other side of the fence. We're gonna start with Q&A. As Francesco said, we have the top management team in the front rows, so we should be able to cope with any of the questions you have, and feel free. If I see hands up. Maybe start with Biraj, if it's better if you can.
Maybe we go to the breakout section then.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. It's Biraj Borkhataria. Oh, sorry. Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. Two questions, please. The first one is, when you look at your cash flow guidance, what are you assuming for windfall tax within the overall frame for 2023 and 2024, I guess? Then the second thing is specifically for 2023 CapEx, does that include the PBF refinery deal in the EUR 9 billion, or is that on top? Thank you.
Good. Francesco.
Claudio.
Talk about the windfall tax .
Si. About the windfall tax, clearly we are considering substantially three countries where we are exposed to these taxes, Italy, UK, and Germany. In Germany in particular for the downstream business. In Italy, as we mentioned, we have EUR 1 billion that were paid in 2022 and EUR 500 that are assumed in 2023. On Germany, substantially we are expecting to pay something in the range of EUR 150 million in 2024. This is because it's a way the taxes are calculated there. In the UK, we have already paid around EUR 100 million in 2022, and we are going to pay around EUR 330 million this year. These are the sum. Clearly in UK there will be a continuous, let's say, windfall contribution during the four-year plan.
In Italy, we do not consider this during the plan. Clearly UK in Germany, it is, there is a rolling in 25 because this is calculated to. That are the assumption related to the windfall tax. About the acquisition of the biorefinery, the cost of the acquisition are included in the M&A net contribution. We are seeing that in the plan, we are assuming to have a positive contribution, EUR 1 billion. Within that positive, there are all different positive and negative, let's say, acquisition and sales. The costs related to the CapEx are included in that because it is related also to the time of conclusion of the closing of the deal.
Sorry, I specifically asked before it started to ask you to stand up and say your name and your institution, which I then completely forgot about. Maybe for simplicity, Josh, maybe get you.
Thank you, Jon. It's Josh Stone from Barclays, and thank you for having us in Rome. The warmer climate is much appreciated. Two questions, please. Firstly, can you just help us understand? Your CapEx has gone up, but your production numbers in 2026 don't seem to be changing very much. Is there a certain amount of contingency that you're including in these numbers, or how much of that production is coming beyond 2026 with the increased CapEx? Second question on distributions, you've given a very helpful simplification of the policy, much appreciated. Can you just help us understand how you're thinking about dividends versus buybacks over the period? Do you have a particular cash dividend in mind? Will cash dividends continue to grow, or will they stay stable? Thank you.
On the CapEx? About CapEx increase, that is true, but you have to consider that we are coming from a period where we reduce our CapEx in row of 35% in 2021 35%. Now we are recovering. We have a good assets. And as you know, that our new project that have a time to market of 3-4 years. If you start investing now, you can expect to have production today. The production will be practically. Is increased. There is a. Is increasing in production, but of some percent that link to production optimization. It's not linked to the investment that we are doing now to have production in 2-4 years. That is the reason.
We are coming from a period of very of underinvestment, and that is a reaction after our good exploration discoveries.
About the split between buyback and dividend, clearly, We have already also mentioned during the presentation that the intent is to continue to raise also the dividend policy. You have to consider that Eni has currently almost 7% of dividend yield. It is the highest in the sector. I think that continue to raise dividend without a contribution in term of buyback that keep the overall, let's say, amount to be paid for the dividend, let's say, relatively constant will potentially be a risk and for the volatility of the sector, for the volatility of the business.
We think that this balance between buyback and dividend is the most appropriate. Is an opportunity to have, let's say, to buy the shares at a level of pricing that we consider extremely low. I don't think that is a good for us opportunity to buy the share at the current prices. On the other side, we are able to raise the dividend with a, I would say, a material step-up as you've seen this year, this will allow us also to keep this dividend, let's say, resilient, even for lower scenario. Just to give you a figure that is useful, is this with this new dividend, the cash neutrality is in the range between $50-$55 per barrel. Remember last year we were in the range of $40, $43, $45 per barrel.
Now we have a $10 more, but clearly because we have increased. There is no more base dividend, but substantially there is a double dividend versus that base.
Move over on this side. I'll go to Christian first, if that's okay.
Hi, it's Christian Malley from JP Morgan. First of all, I just wanna congratulate you on an amazing journey in picking up all that gas across the world and focusing on your core business, something that I think is very unique in this sector. On that point, you've clearly shown that you're sticking to your core principles in terms of investing in hydrocarbons. My first question is, I'm sort of trying to triangulate your free cash flow outlook with quite a bullish oil price view versus what you're incrementally spending, and it sort of feels like it's a little bit light relative to what you could achieve. With that in mind, with that 60, over 60 or 65% reduction emissions, what's costing you more to explore and produce these volumes?
Why are you reducing your emissions by that amount in order to be able to deliver? Surely you should be, you know, incrementally putting more $ into growing your volumes with emissions coming down. I just worry that the rent on having to sort of transition is eating away from your free cash flow. That's my first question. The second question is your gas portfolio and the assumptions you're using in your gas price seem quite high for the next few years. That's not the question, what I'm trying to understand is, it's quite a diversified portfolio. You have an amazing position in the East Med. Why are you spending all those $ to get Qatari volumes when you have such a great portfolio as it is? I guess the actual question is, are you too diversified in your GGP portfolio?
Should you not just stick to some core places where you've got great political capital? Deliver that. The third is sort of, third question, apologies, is y our energy transition. Well, two , three, four. The last question is your transition. I just want to understand, are you focusing on your hydrocarbon business as the core to delivering free cash flow, or are you trying to be everything to everybody with Plenitude, with, y ou seem to be in very, a lot of different places. I just want to understand, what is your core strategy here over the next five to seven years? You're clearly bullish oil, so, how are you going to balance that, and what is the actual strategy? Thank you.
Four question, that means another strategy presentation because I have to I'm going to talk for one hour to answer to you. Thank you for the questions. Really encompassing everything. First of all, to talk about, okay, the investment in transition. Investors, against the investment in the traditional oil and gas or, and the free cash flow input. The free cash flow input is for now, and they have to look at the overall leveraging, because at the end of the day, you have to control your balance sheet, controlling what is the input on your, on your leverage. You see that our leverage is going down during the four-year plan, and we are reaching about 10% at the end.
That is a, if the 2023 is really something, as I explained before, in term of upstream CapEx. Sorry, I come here because the podium is. This is 2023, then we are going to have a good free cash flow, and we are going down. I don't think that there is conflict, and we explained during this strategy presentation there is no conflict between the transition and growing upstream. It depends on how you organize yourself. Our strategy from the beginning, I can say, that we can go back of some few years, was to transform our company. We start to transform our company, and nobody push us to do that, was our strategy. We remained firm on our strategy in the last nine years.
Our view, the company view, my view, was to be able to deliver to all our customers clean products. That is the transform. We are industrial company, we have to transform our refineries, our chemicals, our upstream. To reach the Scope 3, we have the chance to have customers. The only way to reach the Scope 3 is through customers. We have more than 10 million, we go to 11 million, then 15 million customers. We have the supply, all the supply, the mobility. Doing that, we can produce and create product that are really beneficial for the environment. We mind about that. It's not just a fashion. We mind about that. Otherwise we are going to destroy our company if.
We mind personally, I mind personally, and I think that is good for our company. We diversify our business. 3 years ago, we are not so strong. 3 years ago we have the upstream. Now we can increase our dividend, we can talk about a resilient, a robust dividend and buyback, so the all the remuneration, because we rely not just on one leg, big leg, enormous leg, but just one. You need really big legs to stand, otherwise your center of gravity is outside of you. You go down. I don't want to go down. Now we have gas and power, and gas and power is brilliant. It's doing very well because it's diversifying, and now I explain why it's doing well.
We are refineries, we are marketing, we have the mobility, and we have the big business that is Plenitude, that is not just renewable. Plenitude, as I said, is a very interesting and valuable mix of customers and renewables, every kind of renewables. I think that keep in mind that we transforming our company. The diversity, we talk about the gas diversification, your question, but when you diversify your business, you are reducing the risk because we are diversifying on business that are quite less capital intensive than the upstream. There is no the inspirational risk. There is no the development risk. There is no the production risk. There are all these risks that we love, is our, is our DNA. We handle that. We need also to rely on a diversification.
Less internal rate of return, not so less than upstream. At the end, upstream now is 20%, 23%, 24%, 25%?
Is 25% on the projects.
The other business. The biorefining are ranging between 10% and 15%. On the renewables, that is we are on the full chain because we are in production and then we sell and we are customers. We are between 6% and 8%. Are less risky and create a diversification. From gas point of view, why Qatar? Qatar, in this case, I'm not buying gas. I'm in the upstream. I am in the gas selling, in the marketing. What I want, I want to be always along the value chain. You see, in the refinery, I want to be in the upstream.
I want to produce the vegetable oil because I don't want to be stuck in a situation where I don't find vegetable oils, palm oil where is out, and the costs are high, and the transportation costs are high. I want to be in all our businesses in the value chain. That is the must of our company. For the gas, Qatar is okay because we are in the full value chain. Clearly, our strategy, if you remember, you know, somebody remembered that four years ago I said that I want to rely for our gas business on our upstream gas production because we have a huge amount of these gas discoveries.
That is the upside that the gas and power is last year, and is going to have this year and in the future because we are on the value chain, is our gas. We don't rely on negotiation with the producer that can, Russia is an example, maybe can happen again. Somebody want to or change your price, change your contract, or stop your production, or sell to somebody else that is paying more also because there are short-term contract, more short-term contract than before. Maybe now it's going to change because we have a energy security problem. That is overall in brief the reasons.
We'll stay on here. Maybe Os first. Amy then Irene.
T hank you very much. Oswald Clint, Bernstein. I'd just like to ask about gas again. Your map is incredible of all the African locations, all the import terminals to Europe, plus all of your equity gas. A lot of those host governments are looking for higher pricing themselves, retain some of that rent back to the host country. Some Spanish or Portuguese companies I think have been renegotiating and losing, perhaps being on the losing side of, you know, the value that's accruing back to the host government. I just want you to explain, given your what we see as very strong relationships is, are you on the winning side as you have these deep legacy positions? Europe wants gas, you have gas all around the continent.
In terms of contracts, pricing, are you going in there and extracting a better outcome for shareholders? Then secondly on the biofuels. Is there something we're missing here? Maybe you can explain, Kenya, Rwanda. W hat is it? What's the cost of this feedstock? Whereas other companies are looking to procure their feedstock, they're looking to buy trading companies to procure this stuff. Are you doing something unique or special here with East Africa that could really give you a margin edge in biofuels relative to some of the competitors?
Okay. Thank you the, for this question because it allow me to expand and elaborate on the strategy. As I said, our strategy is to run the car. I don't want to be run or managed by somebody else. When you, when you talk about gas and I have to go and renegotiate, most of the time I have to renegotiate with myself. That is the reason why I want to be in the upstream. That is the upside to be a utility from this one side, but also an upstream from the other side. We didn't, we didn't have problem in Europe. We had problem, we managed, but we create values instead of destroy value when the Russian gas disappeared because we are not just a utility, we are an upstream, we have this gas.
When all the physical gas disappeared with the hedging, with the margin calls, with the banks, what happened to the others? Why didn't happen to us the way that we are the first client of Russian or Gazprom? It happened because we have our own gas. When I go to Algeria to negotiate, in this case, is a good example because we sell to them, they sell to us, but we increase production drastically. We are investing in this country. I'm not a client, I'm a partner. I don't go there, I knock through the door and say, like you can do with Qatar, with the American LNG or with the Russian, "I want to buy gas." I don't do that because I'm producing this gas. That is the big difference without talking about Egypt or Libya or Congo or Mozambique. We made investment.
We took risk in exploration. We gave value to this country. It's not a matter of contract, it's a matter of investing before to run the car. I'm not a passenger. I'm not somebody that's go and ask for something. We are discussing because we invest together. Sometimes we invest 100%, as you know. That is the first question. That is completely linked to the palm oil, vegetable oil. Here is even simpler because most of these countries are also upstream countries. You know that upstream is very nice. Can give a lot of royalties, taxes, but is not labor intensive. We have the opportunity to combine and with the agriculture to really give something that is labor intensive and give a diversification from a job point of view.
We went back for 1 year in 7 countries, talking about this project. Kenya was the first one because the culture of farmers, there are a lot of farmers they know, so for that reason they've been the first to deliver oil. is we start saying, "Okay, we are biorefineries. We want to go away from palm oil. We have selected some special seeds." In this case, is castor oil because it's faster and this can grow also in marginal fields or without water. We went there and say, "We need land. Not our land, we need agriculture farmers." We in some country there are farmers. In other country in the last couple of year, we train them.
With Rwanda and with Italy, we train them. We universally selected the seed that happened before with the test in Tunisia. Just to give you an example, the average size is between, talk about land, 150,000-200 ,000 hectares. That means that you employ about 90 ,000 families. You can imagine, 90 ,000 families, and that in 7 country, and we want to expand. There is this reason that is very strong because give us more solidity, and we are more vast in the country, more recognized, and we are investing and bringing some new stuff. The other thing is like gas.
During COVID, we had problem to feed our biorefineries because palm oil came from very far, far, far. Disruption, transportation issue, the seas. They couldn't deliver, and the price was very high for the few barrels of vegetable oil, and the refinery didn't do well. Now with this kind of strategy, we had in our hand all this primary source that is vegetable oil. There is no conditions, it's our. We are everything in these countries. We create big advantage for Africa, but big advantage for the solidity and the value of our entire chain.
I think it's fair we'll go into more of that in the breakout session as well. I'm gonna go to Amy and then Irene, I think, had her hand up as well. I'll come back over here.
Thank you. It's Amy Wong from Credit Suisse, thanks for the insight into your gas strategy. I'm just gonna flip it over to Francesco on the financial side. I've noticed you've reintroduced your sensitivity to the gas price in the upstream division. Could you talk a bit more about how we should read that piece of sensitivity, thinking about the mix in the portfolio and some of the moving parts on the profitability of your upstream portfolio? Thank you.
Okay. I think that you've seen that we have in the attachment the sensitivity is 150 for each dollar million BTU. You have to consider that we have 20% of the overall volume that are exposed to the spot pricing. There is a 40% that is related to the oil linked, and the 40% that is related to the fixed formula or mechanism that are specifically focused on the country, very particularly in certain domestic sales that we have in African countries. That is the mix in term of our upstream sales.
Irene.
Thank you. It's Irene Himona, Société Générale. Congratulations, not just for the numbers, but for also managing the Russian crisis. First question on the Plenitude IPO, if you can perhaps update us as to whether there is a plan B to perhaps sell to an industrial partner or whether you will be revisiting the IPO when the market allows. Secondly, if I can go back to the new distribution policy, a payout out of CFFO, which is very useful. Is there any way we can link to the previous framework? In other words, how should I think about what happens to the dividend per share at the bottom of the cycle, as and when the oil price corrects? Is there any way we can gauge that? Thank you.
You talk about plans, you talk about, Eni.
Okay. I reply about the distribution policy. Historically, Eni has paid in the range between 25%, 30%. We paid this 25%, 30% of the cash flow from operation with different formula. Sometimes we are stated or declared just the dividend, sometimes we add the buyback. In other case, in the recent times, we link this to the mechanism that we have seen since 2020. At the bottom of the cycle, substantially the idea of having this CFFO mechanism is just to follow eventually the downturn. If there is, for example, in the coming year, another crisis, there will be the possibility to reduce, confirming the range between 25%-30% clearly will depends.
When this crisis will occur, how long will length, also which is the balance sheet at the time it will happen. At the end of the day, what is the opportunity? Is that you will modulate the company, first of all, to absorb with all the other tools: cost, CapEx, balance sheet, slowing down the buyback, and eventually in case of crisis, moving all the distribution just on the dividend. Substantially 25%, 30% is the basis, is the ground floor for distribution. Clearly will depend on the CFFO of the time. In case of downturn, the dividend will be the dominant part of the distribution.
For Plenitude. We don't have a plane A, plane B. We have just plane A and plane A to plane A. Why? Because our intention is to get some, you know, some value from this company. There is no alternative. We can go to IPO, we can sell to a strategic partner, we can do both. Go to a strategic partner and go to IPO. Clearly, the IPO is still a possibility, depends on the market. Strategic partner also at the very beginning was a possibility, but we can do both. The real target is to extract value for, from Plenitude.
Let me come over this side because I've been ignoring you. Martin first, and then, friends.
Hi, hello, it's Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley. I have a few. The first one, I just wanna clarify Biraj's question because I didn't quite got the comment on CapEx. The CapEx guide is EUR 9 billion-9.5 billion a year over the 4-year plan, and this EUR 800 million to EUR 900 million, or sorry, $800 million to $900 million for the PBF deal. Is that in the EUR 9 billion to 9.5 billion, or is that not in the EUR 9 billion to 9.5 billion? You said it was in the M&A line.
Hello.
I was a little confused by that.
It is in the M&A activity. You know that CapEx are CapEx, there is a cash flow contribution that is related to M&A. The cash flow contribution could be positive or negative if you do summing up all the operation that you do, let's say more sales versus less acquisition or vice versa. The acquisition related all the spending related to the biorefinery in U.S. is in this line that contribute to the free cash flow. It's not in the CapEx. CapEx in our share is just in the range of EUR 350 million. That are the CapEx that will be paid according with this deal. This is part of the overall contribution that you are accounting for that acquisition.
Instead of having a split between the CapEx and the consideration, we put all the consideration, including CapEx, in the bottom line, contributing to the free cash flow from extraordinary inorganic operation through the M&A activity.
It's not clear.
I tell you one thing that is clear. If the closing will occur after the CapEx are suspended, what you will do? You have to make an assumption that the closing will occur before these EUR 300 million are not yet paid. If the closing will occur later, what you will do is that you will pay an higher consideration because you are substantially reimbursed to the seller also the CapEx level, also the CapEx amount. For this reason is not. I do not understand what is the such issue about the EUR 300 million of CapEx.
No, I think that, I don't know, maybe we are saying two different stuff. The question was very easy. Is in your CapEx? The question at the very beginning. Not your question was complicated, but I understood the first one. No, sorry. I'm joking, clearly. The question was, is the CapEx for the development of this refinery inside our plan? I'm going to answer to you to understand if I'm correct. This plant is finished. What they spent, the CapEx, are included in the consideration because there is no other additional CapEx looking forward because it's going to start. That is the answer.
It's all in M&A.
It's clear? This answer is clear? Otherwise you can take his answer that is not clear at all.
I think we mostly got there. All right. Wonderful. Well, the other two I wanted to ask, in sort of presentations from several of your peers, there is quite an, there's often a lot of focus on hydrogen. In your plan, there seems to be less hydrogen. Now, that's not a statement of-
There is not enough hydrogen, you are saying? There is not enough hydrogen inside.
Well, no, this is not a statement of this is either right or wrong, but I was wondering, you probably have given it an awful lot of thought, and I was wondering if you could speak a bit about what you think?
No, I can talk for hours about hydrogen, yes. I can talk a lot about hydrogen, yes. I decided not to put in this presentation. It was already too long. If you want, like, we can talk about hydrogen.
Well, yeah.
I think you said a few words about it.
You understand my feeling about it, about hydrogen. Your question is why you didn't put hydrogen, enough hydrogen in your presentation. That is it.
Yeah, there are no grand statements about we want to be 10% of the market or, like, that type of stuff. I mean.
I can answer immediately about hydrogen. We are the first producer and the first consumer of hydrogen in Italy because it's clearly now worldwide we have ammonia, 50% and refinery 50% that are the big market of hydrogen. We start a few years ago to work on try to sell blue hydrogen, contracted because we still now we are now starting the CCS project. We didn't find customers. In the region of North Italy, we tried to sell blue hydrogen just to create a breakthrough, break ice, and then go to the green hydrogen when the costs are affordable. We didn't find clients, so there is no demand. We have demand in ammonia, we have demand in refineries, but the green hydrogen is too expensive.
We tried to find them, what they ask us. Yes, we can move to hydrogen if you participate to our investment to transform our industrial processes, to use new materials, to use new valves because it's very The molecule is very small, so you can go out. That was the first approach two, three years ago. We didn't find demand. If there is no demand and there is no incentives, and I'm start investing in hydrogen, you ask me why you are investing something that whereas there is no demand. That is the first question. I don't want that you ask me that, so I didn't do. What we are doing on hydrogen, is as two things. First of all, I believe hydrogen, good is good for electricity.
Mobility, we are the only one that open new station, feeding station for hydrogen. We have one done. We are performing a second one. We have just 6 cars of hydrogen in Italy, Toyota, are just pilot test. Not a lot. Out of 50 million, 6 is not a lot. We are just testing to be ready. We have 2 projects in the south of Italy, real project of green hydrogen, for our refinery of Taranto and our refinery of Gela. One is a biorefinery, the other one is traditional one. The costs are at the moment quite high in term of EUR per kilo, 3x, 4x, 5x more. We are testing to understand if through technology we can improve it. That is the issue.
Second one, for hydrogen, you need a lot of water. You need a lot of water, distilled water. The ratio is 1/10. For 1 kilo, 1 ton of hydrogen you need 9-10 kilos or ton of distilled water. You have to understand where you can do that. What is the cost of water? That is another very rare source. We are working on it. In this update in our strategy we prefer to talk about business that today and tomorrow, means 2023 or 2024, can give returns that are still under study, under consideration. There are a lot of talk, you're right. You know, from the very beginning you know us. I'm not following fashion. I'm not following trend. We are our strategy. We are strict on our strategy.
We start with Dual Exploration and everybody say, "What is that? It's stupid." We didn't want to go to Shale Oil, Shale Gas and everybody. We have our strategy and we want to be very practical on that. We want to make money respecting the environment. When we are study something we don't talk about, we study. When we are ready we can introduce and present to you.
That is extremely clear. My final question I wanna ask very briefly, if you could give your reflections on the European Gas Market. T he changes in the European gas market have been phenomenal over the last couple of months. Demand has declined a lot. Energy imports have surprised. I was wondering where you think the market will go next.
You're talking about the gas market. No, I think that the price is just an effect of the shock of the Russian gas and the possible impact of this missing Russian gas on the energy security for this winter. Everybody was scared that we are not able to fill our storage. Storage full. Storage now are 64%-65% on average. In Italy and Europe is the same. We are, I think that we are going to finish this winter period with our storages are the double level of the last year, so good level. All this stuff are bring the market to a lower price. Germany and Holland, they brought inside here a gasifier.
They took a strong choice. They had the infrastructure, before they didn't have it. In terms of South, I think that we are connected, we have pipes now. We have regasification facility, but in any case we have gas. Gas alone is not enough. We need also to be able to receive and use it. Spain has no problem. We have a situation where the market thinks that until the next winter, we are in a safe situation. What can happen? We monitor every day and everybody's monitoring what happened in March, April, June, July. If you are in the condition, we have all the infrastructure and we have all the gas for the north is coming just from the U.S. mainly. To fill our storage.
That is the more critical issue, because the last year we had Russian gas, 80% of Russian gas until July, and then drop down drastically. These are for us, for Italy, is about EUR 17 billion that we don't have this year. How we are replacing? We are replacing from our side, from Eni side. For our customer, we don't have problem. We need a regasification facility in Piombino. Absolutely, that is mandatory. Otherwise, we are not able to send gas to Italy. I think that the situation will be not volatile, less volatile than 2022 for a couple of years to understand if the infrastructure plus the additional gas is there, are there. Infrastructure is not a problem. The additional gas could be a problem because there's no big new projects.
For a company that don't have the upstream, the gas reserves and the possibility to ship gas, that could be an issue. I think that for a couple of years we have to monitor these things, and after that, if everything is okay, we are in a safe situation, and we can go maybe not to the price of before because it's not easy because we have investment to recover. We have new investment on gas, new investment in infrastructure, a lot of new investment that we have to recover that for a while, doesn't allow to go back to the price of before. This price is really very good. Respect is 5x less than what we experienced in August.
Okay. I'm going to Alessandro, then Massimo, and then, I think I might go to the telephone after that just to be fair, and then I'll come back to you guys.
Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca. I have a couple of easier question.
Easier.
On the first on the production, this year I think you've given a 3%-4% CAGR guidance. I was wondering if you can maybe share us your assumptions around the 4%, what we need to see to get to the 4% of CAGR by 2026. Also, I was curious to know how you think about production going into next decade. We've seen the share of the gas, of course, going up to 40%-60%. I was wondering, is this just a function of the overall production coming down, or are you actually seeing a growing production as well into next decade?
I'm asking this because when you give the target of new resources, 2.2 million barrels, I think equates to 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, which is quite a bit below your current guidance. Probably you will find those barrels at some point anyway. That is the first question. The second question is on the opportunity of decarbonization. I think CCS is in the short term, medium term, is key for decarbonizing. You taken FID on in Ravenna at the end of last year. We are seeing the cost of C2 going up to EUR 100 per ton, and I'm sure that makes sense from an economic point of view. I was wondering if you can give us an update on the costs associated to Ravenna.
That's the second question A. Second question B, i s on t he net zero development at Baleine can be applied to other oil developments, across Africa or elsewhere. Yeah. Thank you.
Guido is going to talk about the production and also about the zero project for the future. I want just to answer about the gas ration and what I see the world, the future of the gas role in the next decade.
The production growth is underpinned by our high-quality project that you have seen in the presentation, namely the project in Libya, in Congo, in Ivory Coast, and many others that we can drill down in the breakout session if you like. 75% of this new production coming in 2026, it's a project are already under execution, and the remaining 25% are project that will be on which a decision will be taken this year. That gives you how solid is this growth, where we also build in some contingency that could give a further growth at 2026 and beyond that. On the net zero, clearly, it's a model that can be replicated elsewhere.
We are already looking at other project at net zero, targeting the net zero for Scope 1 and 2 of the upstream. I can hand over.
Yeah. Thank you. Gas and then CCS. For gas, what I think for gas for the next decade, I think the gas is clearly the only other carbon that can accompany the transition in a very robust way. Talking about gas and what we experienced in the last 4 or 5 years, we remarked that there is a mismatch between what we think about supply and the demand. If you look in Europe in the last 20 years, the gas demand is inelastic. In Italy as well. We are talking only is about around 400 billion cubic meter per year. That from 2000. If you look at worldwide, in 2000, the worldwide demand was 2,000 BCM per year.
Today it's 4.2 BCM per year. It's more than double. I think that we have to be realistic. If something that 3, 4, 5 years ago we said that is going to disappear. In 2005, 2006, we thought that in Europe we are to produce, to demand in Europe were, should be about 250, 400 billion. I think that we are in front of something that we have to understand in a better way. We have to realize that gas is there. Now is also in the taxonomy with very low, it's marginally in the taxonomy. The gas is here and the demand is, and the demand of gas is there.
We are in this situation because we thought we can avoid to use gas. Gas is there. There is a strong demand. For that reason, we continue to invest in gas. We think that we have to be there. Otherwise, is a question of energy security. From the other side, we have to be able to capture, reduce emission, develop project with a Scope 1 and 2 net zero. CCS is not clearly for the upstream gas production. CCS is for hard to abate and for the power plant that use gas intensively. This price is quite interesting. Also EUR 80 per ton was very high. I'm talking about the ETS.
If you look at the transportation and storage, our project that are very optimized now are about between EUR 15 and EUR 17. Where is Luigi? Luigi is there. About EUR 15. You have to say yes or no. Not talk, no. It's between EUR 15 and 17 EUR per ton. That is for the transportation and storage. We have the capture. On the capture, it's a matter of R&D. We capture the CO2. We capture CO2 in our downstream, in our upstream with a mini. Is very energy-consuming. Depends where. If you capture in a steam reformer, you capture in chimney, and the percentage of CO2 can be much less. It can go from $30 or EUR 50 per ton.
The overall can range between 40 to 70 overall without any optimization in each other, in capturing the CO2. We are in a good range. A range now that is in taxonomy is going to be, we can receive incentives because we cannot shut down ammonia, we cannot shut down the cement, we cannot shut down refineries. We have to continue. I think that is useful and could be a business. For that reason we are accelerating, and we are the first now in U.K. to be, to develop. We have two there. We have one in Libya. We are in Abu Dhabi. We are expanding this business. We are from one side we are gas, and we believe in gas because we are strong evidence.
It's not just a dream. We believe that in the need to capture the CO2.
Massimo.
Good afternoon, Massimo Bonisoli from Equita. Another question on gas, sorry. You mentioned before of the 20 BCM you are substituting from Russia, nine will come from pipe and 11 from basically liquefaction. This is happening in a very short period of time, basically two, three years. Do you need the infrastructure bottlenecks in Italy and Europe to be solved to realize the value of the project you have put in place across the Mediterranean and the rest of your gas portfolio to realize the value of those projects, basically? The second question is on M&A for Francesco. You mentioned a positive contribution from M&A in the CapEx plan. Did you include also the divestment of Plenitude, of a minority stake of Plenitude and maybe Sustainable Mobility in that plan? Thank you.
For gas, the only for us about the 20 TCF, we have pipes. Sorry, pipes are there, so there is no problem. We are upside potential as upside spare capacity from Libya. The only bottleneck for the 20 BCM is the regasification capacity in Italy. That's all. Clearly, it's not. It's a problem for Italy, but if you are not just talking about our shareholders, and clearly I'm going to do all my best to sell here. If I'm not able to sell here, I will sell this cargo somewhere else. It's not something that we are going to lose as a value, but we have to push to get to have this, otherwise Italy is going to have problem.
For Europe, I that with the acquisition that Germany, Holland did, the only things to do, if you want to talk about single market is not just policy north, and we need it, but we need also to connect Europe. There are a lot of pipes are not connected. I think that to reduce further the gas price, that is a question of volume and availability of gas, is not just the regasification capacity, but is also connection and pipe in Europe. In Italy, we need to invest in infrastructure pipes and connection if we want to become a real hub, South-North supplier. Otherwise, for us, we are in a quite good situation.
About the M&A, yes, the answer is yes. We have clearly a plan of reshuffle of the portfolio, take into account clearly of synergic opportunity on one side, to reduce our exposure in certain country, in certain tail assets, and clearly monetize and valorize the business combination. Not only the business combination, but mainly this new entity that we are building on, and we would like to unlock in front of the market. In our plan, there is an assumption of partial dilution that could occur through an IPO or through strategic partnership, as was mentioned, for both of these businesses.
I'm conscious we've had some calls waiting on the line, so maybe if we can take two off the telephone lines, if they're still there and waiting.
Yes, sir. The first question is from Karen Kostanian of Bank of America.
Yeah, gentlemen, thank you so much for taking my question. I just have one clarifying question. On slide 29 here, you're talking about flexibility designed into the upside to buyback. Does it mean that if oil prices go above $85 per barrel, then 35% of that is going to be, of any CFFO generated, is going to be distributed to shareholders? Does it mean that you're migrating from 25%-30% of CFFO payout to 35% above $85 per barrel? Am I understanding that correctly or am I missing something? Thank you.
Yes. The answer is yes. First of all, our distribution policy, how it is designed now with the EUR 0.94 and the EUR 2.2 billion of buyback, is equivalent to a 30% distribution of CFFO. We design this 2023 distribution at the top of the range. If there will be improvement, that could be improvement from the, let's say, operational performance and from the scenario point of view, this additional cash flow from operation that will be generated will be distributed at 35%. It means that the overall distribution will grow in excess of the 30%.
Thank you. Can we just take another one?
I'm sorry, can I clarify? What should be the threshold for us to think about the oil price he CFFO of $17 billion as a threshold for that 35% payout, or?
The threshold is EUR 3.5 billion. That is in, is included in the press release. Substantially, we have EUR 2.2 billion. That is the starting point. If the upside will be, let's say, favorable, we can reach up to EUR 3.5 billion. Just to give you a sense of this, which kind of scenario foil will imply will be a range, a scenario of Brent in the range of $120.
I see. Thank you very much.
The next question from the call is from Henry Tarr of Berenberg.
Hi there, thanks very much for taking my call. Two quick ones, just one on inflation, where are you seeing it come through, particularly across the value chain would be great. Then, secondly, on the balance sheet, you obviously have a strong position today, more value to be released from Plenitude, et cetera. Are there any areas where you might look to add inorganically, potentially sort of renewables pipeline or would you be open to deals in the oil space? Thank you.
About this, or clearly, we are monitoring the market, as we mentioned. We have already moved the last year. Have you seen a number of acquisitions related to Plenitude, related to the Sustainable Mobility , as we have seen, also related to upstream. We are now getting closer to the conclusion of the deal that we struck with BP related to Algeria. We continue to have this opportunistic approach to potential M&A. Clearly, on the other side, we continue also to balance this acquisition mode with disposal. That you will continue to see, let's say, a balanced approach towards M&A. I think that on inflation, we'll finish.
You said everything right.
I don't have anything to say.
No, no, I can, I can add something very clearly on Plenitude for sure. Grazie, Claudio. On Plenitude, we are growing organically in term of clients and in term of EV charging points. Our target to 2025 are all organic. Of course, opportunistic occasion will be monitored and eventually captured. Instead, on the renewable power plant, we have, of course, included in the plan small other acquisition to maintain our target to 2025.
How is inflation? I think that is.
Okay, on the inflation side, inflation, of course, is in our number. Inflation has hit on 2022, but today now we already see the peak of the inflation. In fact, the recent run of bid exercise for acquisition of panel, solar panel, have shown that these have been dramatically reducing. We have noticed from October to now a very good decrease in prices, and also the availability of kits, of products is there. In 2021, the solar capacity production plan, the panel was 200 GW. 2022 expected 300 GW of production capacity. Also in this case, inflation should reduce.
Okay. That's great. Thanks very much.
Oh, I apologize, sir. The final question from the conference call is from Michele Della Vigna of Goldman Sachs.
Thank you very much. I will be very brief, and sorry for not being there for this brilliant event. I'm stuck at home with a cold. My question really is on bioenergy. I was wondering if you could isolate the EBITDA that you plan to make in bioenergy in '23 and how that evolves to the end of your plan. Also, to highlight whether you see some opportunities in biogas. You're clearly creating a really strong value chain across the liquid side, I was wondering if biogas also becomes an interesting opportunity for you. Thank you.
About the biogas?
No, no, it's the question is for the split between the two. Sorry, Michele, we are just checking the figures. When you're ready, you can answer, Pino. When you get cold, you make very nasty questions.
No, the contribution to the EBIT of the bio production grow very, very much, 3x, 4 x in the plan. This because we expect to put in operation all the new capacity, reaching 3 million tons per year by 2025 versus 1.1 of today, and also because of the increase of the margin. About the biomethane, our plan is to convert all the biogas production plant that we have, 22 plant, one is just in operation, to produce more than 50 million cubic meter per year, plus some new acquisition in order to reach the final target of 200 million cubic meter per year.
Thank you.
Michele, on the EBITDA guidance for bio, we'll come back to you on that. I think you spotted there's a '26 guidance, but we can talk you through some of the evolution of that offline.
Perfect.
If Henri can promise me this is a very short one, then we'll make this the last question. No multipart questions, please, Henri.
No multiple questions.
All right. Thank you, Jon. I'll keep it pretty quick. First one is a simple clarification for Francesco. Just on the shareholder returns for 2023, specifically to the downside, the EUR 22 billion, are you committed to that? Or should we still consider the 25%-30% in a weaker macro environment?
No. Yes. Do you have a thought?
I have another quick one which is on biofuels and, the deal in the U.S., not CapEx, but just more fundamentally in terms of the rationale for you to enter the U.S. market, where I do see some growth potential, but it's also a very competitive market. Why do you feel the need to enter the U.S., and what does Eni bring to the, to the asset? Thank you.
About EUR 2.2 billion of buyback, this plan that as we mentioned, it could be raised according with the upside is a commitment for the execution in a period of time that will be clearly approved once the AGM will approve. The start will come in May, and it will last for 18 months, so substantially for one year and a half. Clearly, you have the opportunity to buy back such amount according with that period, fast-tracking eventually the first month in the first period if the price is supportive or eventually extending this time if you will need to prolong longer than the 12-month to reach the 18-month that is the maximum time.
For the U.S., why we entered the market. First of all. There is competition. First of all, there is not big competition on the biofuel, especially on our kind of biofuel and Biojets, because we are
Not with our competition, but we are, I think in terms of quality, the best product. The demand is growing. It's growing a lot, and there are a lot of states that are asking for biofuels. Sometimes we have to send biofuel there, so and to north of Europe. There is a big market, and there is no a lot of competitors on this kind of products. There is a huge space, there is room to grow. We have also incentives. Now, the U.S. market is quite attractive. We are investing 50% of our renewable there, and we have a base, and we are in Houston, we are in Washington, we are in New York, so we have a structure.
We have people, and we know the market very well. That is all element that push us to start also these new initiatives in the U.S. The last point is that we are using our technology, Ecofining, that make us much more comfortable about operation. We are the only one that tested this technology in the last seven years, and we modified the technology to increase the supply, so the feedstock supply.
Thank you. I'm gonna have to stop it there because we're at a hard deadline. I know there was a few others who had questions. I apologize. We'll try and follow up as best we can. We're gonna stop now. There's a break. Then we have the 4 breakout sessions, which I think will also deep dive into a number of the questions you've had here around the strategy and the business performance. Two other things. There's the R&D lab at the back, past the small electric cars. You can sit in the electric cars, but you can't drive them away. There's the metaverse out in the tents out at the back, which I very much encourage you to go and use. I guarantee it doesn't hurt, and you will come out unscathed.
It's well worth it. I think you'll find it a fantastic experience.
Yes, Claudio says it depends on the report that you write later on. With that, thank you very much for your interesting questions, and look forward to engaging you both with you through the breakouts, through the food at the back, and then obviously at dinner tonight. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you.