Good afternoon, and welcome to Eni's 2023 third quarter results conference call, hosted by Mr. Francesco Gattei, Chief Financial Officer. For the duration of the call, you will be in listen-only mode. However, at the end of the call, you'll have an opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and one on your touchtone telephone. I am now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good afternoon, and welcome to Eni third quarter and nine-month 2023 results conference call. Energy markets remain volatile, but at Eni, our focus is on delivering results in all scenarios, while at the same time advancing our longer-term strategy. Q3 has seen us successfully achieving both these things. Before digging deeper into the numbers, let me emphasize the key strategic accomplishment for the quarter. We are evolving and strengthening core business, such as E&P and GGP, for the challenge of transitioning energy markets and taking opportunity to build new relevant businesses, such as Plenitude, Enilive, Biochemical, and CCUS. In upstream, in August, we began production of Baleine offshore Ivory Coast, less than two years after discovery, further evidence of the efficient integration of world-class exploration with a development strategy focusing on time to market and value maximization.
Production from Baleine is a contributor to this quarter year-on-year growth, and its phased ramp-up is an important element in the 3%-4% growth in our current four-year plan. This approach continues to deliver. We are therefore delighted to significantly exceed our full-year target of 700 million BOE of discovered resources. The recently announced Geng North discovery offshore Indonesia is assessed by third-party provider as the largest in the industry in 2023. Indeed, along with Nargis, announced earlier this year, Eni currently has two of the top five. I will revisit Geng in more detail later. Meanwhile, we are also upgrading our upstream portfolio. In September, we announced the sale of our Nigerian onshore production company, NAOC, following the divestment of mature Congo's asset earlier this year.
At the same time, we have been advancing our agreed purchase of Neptune, a portfolio that represents an exceptional fit for us. Closing of Neptune remains on track for Q1 2024. Geng and Neptune will be important contributors to the shifting balance of our upstream portfolio towards gas. Obtaining full value of our equity production is, of course, critical, and so we were pleased in the past few days to announce new LNG supply agreements with Congo, Qatar, and Indonesia. We have seen really positive progress as we work to establish a leading CCUS position. Our Bacton project was awarded a CO2 appraisal and storage license by the UK government, while we also agreed terms with the UK for the world's first asset-based regulated CCS business model for our operated HyNet project. In Energy Evolution, we are also very active.
Our team met with many of you in September to update on our . We were also pleased to confirm an agreement to explore the development operation of a new biorefinery in South Korea, supporting the strong global growth target in that business. Moreover, this month, we have closed the purchase of Novamont, advancing Versalis progress in specializing its portfolio towards the growing market of biochemical and bioplastics. And now to group results. Strong segmental EBIT from each of our main businesses results in over EUR 3 billion group EBIT for the quarter, driven by E&P and EUR 11 billion over the nine months. Including associate, the pro forma EBIT of the company in the quarter was EUR 4 billion and EUR 14 billion over the nine months.
With a tax rate in the mid-40%, consistently with the oil price, business performance, and associate contribution, net income for the quarter was EUR 1.8 billion, resulting in a nine-month net income of EUR 6.6 billion. We continue to have an excellent cash conversion. Underlying three quarters cash flow from operation of EUR 3.4 billion and 12.9 billion for the nine months stand out at the top of our historical performance, with an organic free cash flow to date of around EUR 6.2 billion, which more than covers our 2023 distribution. We accelerate the share buyback this quarter, repurchasing EUR 600 million, meaning we have repurchased over 2% of our share in the year to end September, and our buyback will continue at accelerated pace in the fourth quarter.
Share issues are down almost 6% year-on-year. September also saw the first payment of the EUR 0.94 quarterly dividend. As anticipated, CapEx of EUR 1.9 billion this quarter reflects lower spend than the first half. We have also made the second payment in respect of the PBF joint venture in this quarter. And even as we invest organically and into portfolio and buy back shares, the balance sheet remains in exceptionally good shape, with leverage barely change from the second quarter at 15%, and only up modestly over the last year. Let's now take a look at the business segment performance quarter. Taking natural resources first.
Upstream production averaged 1.635 million barrels per day, up 4% year-on-year, with the startup of Baleine, as I noted, but also higher production in Algeria, ramp-ups in Mexico and Mozambique, recovery in Kazakhstan after last year's unplanned outages. Higher production and higher oil prices helped push EBIT to EUR 2.6 billion, up 26% quarter-on-quarter, and with our upstream satellites, where we generated EUR 3.4 billion of adjusted EBIT. GGP had a softer quarter, as we said it would. The second half of the year is benefiting from less available portfolio flexibility, and Q3 saw fewer optimization opportunity as spreads narrowed. As promised, I want to focus further on our recently announced Geng North discovery in the Kutei Basin, offshore Indonesia.
It is worth refreshing on the main characteristic of our exploration strategy, because Geng North is such a good example. We are focused on gas. We seek a larger equity share that allows us to have greater control of the project, and the option of early valorization through our dual exploration strategy. We explore close to existing infrastructure, which benefits time to market and reduces the development cost and enhances value. Our distinctive parallel in-house development process helps us optimize the time to market. And as a result, not only Eni is consistently the leading global explorer in multiple basins among our peers, but also delivers the best full cycle returns. In terms of Geng North specifically, it is a very significant discovery, with five TCF of gas and 400 million barrels of condensate in place, equivalent to around a recoverable volume of 800 million barrels of oil equivalent.
It's the industry's largest discovery year to date. Well, productivity, confirmed by the DST, is excellent. After completing the Neptune purchase, Eni will have an 88% participation. Development of a field of this scale will require some new infrastructure, including a floating production unit, but this can now be optimized as a new hub development and include reserves for an additional five TCF on our recently acquired IDD acreage. Furthermore, the proximity to infrastructure, the existing Bontang LNG plant, which has available capacity, makes development highly efficient and provides higher value for the gas. Last but not least, it's also worth noting this discovery risks further multi-TCF exploration potential in the area. So by virtue of scale, participation level, efficiency of development, access to market, and cycle time, Geng is a very meaningful addition to Eni's future upstream project pipeline.
And now turning to energy evolution. A stronger SERM, refining margin, and higher refinery availability, as we anticipated on our second quarter call, have combined for a good quarter from traditional refining, with EBIT of EUR 328 million, up versus a loss at Q2, down somewhat year-on-year on scenario effect, not fully reflected in the SERM. Similarly, the strengthening scenario, plus better utilization at Venice and Gela, and the seasonally normal improvement in marketing, have driven a solid EUR 270 million EBIT results from Enilive. We were also pleased to have booked our first contribution of positive net income from our biorefinery joint venture with PBF at the Chalmette Refinery in Louisiana, well in advance of our original plan. And as a reminder, income from investment in the downstream is primarily our stake in the ADNOC refinery.
Versalis continues to be impacted by weak demand, high energy cost, and intense competition in the chemical sector. This emphasizes the importance of the recently completed Novamont acquisition, with our intention to shift towards specialized and sustainable chemistry activities. It is now important to say that Plenitude, even as energy markets continue to be so challenging, is meeting or even exceeding all its operational and financial targets, confirming the strength of a unique and integrated business model. EBIT for Plenitude for the quarter was EUR 180 million, equivalent to EUR 280 million of EBITDA. Along with power, EBIT of EUR 219 million was 26% up year-on-year, despite the significant results from open market power sales in 2022.
With a strong contribution from retail and a significant increase in renewable power sold, we now expect Plenitude 2023 EBITDA to be 30% higher than the original guidance. Startup of offshore wind generation at Dogger Bank and photovoltaic in Kazakhstan emphasize the operational momentum, while the deal agreed by GreenIT, Plenitude joint venture with CDP, to develop four new photovoltaic project in Italy adds to medium-term progress also. This distinct growth profile will continue to be a feature of Plenitude as we double 2023 EBITDA by 2026, reaching seven gigawatt of renewable capacity, as well as increasing customers to over 11 million, and charging points to over 30,000 by the same date. That leads me to update guidance for 2023.
We have narrowed the full year guidance for oil and gas production to between 1.76-1.66 million barrels of oil equivalent, which at the midpoint implies 2.4% growth year-on-year, and a four-quarter exit rate of close to 5% growth year-on-year. We can confirm our GGP guidance in the range of EUR 2.73 billion. We are raising pro forma adjusted downstream EBIT to EUR 1 billion from EUR 0.8 billion, reflecting the stronger third quarter and a better outlook for the last quarter in both traditional and biorefinery refining. This is part of set by continued challenging condition faced by Versalis. Within downstream, Eni pro forma EBITDA is raised to EUR 1 billion from guidance of more than 0.9 previously.
As we have highlighted, we are also raising our full-year guidance for planning to the EBITDA to around EUR 0.9 billion. With this change, we now expect replacement cost CFFO to be around EUR 16.5 billion, up from EUR 15.5 billion-EUR 16 billion previously, and EBIT to be around EUR 14 billion, EUR 2 billion higher than our mid-year view. We are on track to deliver all our original target despite weaker scenario condition than planned, with business outperformance across Eni, delivering around EUR 2.6 billion of additional underlying EBIT. Our plan buyback remains at EUR 2.2 billion, and while we continue to spread to complete by April 2024, we are also accelerating this pace in the final month of 2023.
With our dividend, EUR 0.94 per share for 2023, our distribution is equivalent to 33% of expected cash flow from operations. We expect CapEx about EUR 9 billion, over 5% lower than our initial plan, with the precise figure determined by timing around the project activity. This all means we continue to expect leverage in the 10%-20% range. In conclusion, we continue to deliver excellent operating and financial results and strategic progress. We can reward investor, reinvest in the business for future value, and maintain a resilient financial position in volatile times. Meanwhile, we are also transforming, building on our strength and developing new line of business as opportunity presents themselves. This concludes my prepared remarks, and together with Eni top management, I am ready to answer your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, please press star and one for questions. The first question comes from Giacomo Romeo of Jefferies.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for giving me this opportunity. First question is around your Shares Buyback Program. You, Francesco, you hinted at the fact that you have, you are accelerating in Q4 the pace of the buyback. At current pace, indicates that you should reach around EUR 2 billion by the end of the year. Just wanted to check whether, when you think that the EUR 2.2 billion will be completed. Is it, is it gonna be Q4 results in February? And, and also, how should we think about, how you will use the flexibility, given by the EUR 3.5 billion mandate from the AGM in order to bridge the period when you finish the EUR 2.2 billion and the, and the, and the next AGM in May?
The second question is on GGP. You left EBIT guidance unchanged. Year to date, you're basically EUR 100 million from the lower end of this. Just trying to understand where the cautious outlook is coming from here. Is it related to the increased tensions in the Middle East, or is there any sort of... Do you have any visibility on potential negative impacts from contract negotiations next year, in the next quarter? Just if you can share some color, that would be helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. I will reply to the share buyback, while I will leave the floor to Cristian Signoretto for the GGP guidance. About the share buyback, first of all, you know that we have, as you mentioned correctly, the EUR 2.2 billion as a target, and the flexibility up to EUR 3.5 billion, subject clearly to the improvement towards our cash flow from operation expectation. So that flexibility will be, let's say, optional in case we will see an improvement above the EUR 17 billion threshold that, under the current assumption, we are not, let's say, yet achieved. In the quarter, you mentioned that it will close, according to your estimate, around the EUR 2 billion.
I think that, under the current estimate, so far, the past pace of EUR 60 million per week, of buying back, this is a bit higher. So I will say that clearly you will see in the coming, in the coming weeks from the report that we publish substantially at the beginning of each, the increase of the pace. The expectation is to accelerate the buyback. It means that, instead of concluding that within April, we will think to have an acceleration. I do not disclose what will be, but you will see the figure in the, in the acquisition and the time that we will publish every week. Then now, I leave it to Cristian for more color.
Yeah. So thank you. So the third quarter results were in line with the expectations as guided in the last conference call. And, you know, the mild market actually guided us to that kind of guidance. When it comes to the fourth quarter and the range in the fourth quarter that we left unchanged, this is actually a result of the scenario uncertainties in terms of volatility, spreads, supply availability, as well as expected outcome of an ongoing arbitration, which is going to be ruled in the next quarter.
Thank you.
The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria of RBC.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. The first one's on exploration. Very helpful slide that you put in today. Obviously, this is probably the way Eni has created the most value over the last decade, and it's clearly a strength to the company. So I was just wondering how you're thinking about your exploration budget going forward and into the next couple of years. You see your U.S. peers buying upstream resource in quite a big way, and clearly these on, you know, oil and gas demand are evolving. So do you think your exploration budget is appropriate as it currently stands, or, you know, should you be doing more? And the second question is on Egypt. You know, you have a big position there.
I just wanted to get some thoughts on the ground, because energy exports there have been minimal, which is kind of normal for the, for the summer. But also we're not seeing much in terms of exports for October either. So I was wondering if you'd comment on, you know, production levels of projects like Zohr and, and the broader situation there. And then finally, just a quick one on, on the Indonesia, discoveries. Is, is it fair to assume the target will be for these to feed, Bontang and the, for LNG, and, and I'm assuming there's capacity there for, for more exports, right? Thank you.
Thank you, Biraj. First of all, about exploration, just to have you seen in the past that we continue to perform? We perform through a budget that were maintain, probably, let's say in a steady way, notwithstanding the industry has substantially reduced this kind of activity, because we also selected the capacity, the opportunity near field, and we were able also clearly to take advantage of our internal skills, and the capability to process to our supercomputer seismic imaging, and therefore, to de-risk this activity. I will leave it to Guido the answer about additional color on the exploration. Clearly, Indonesia plan of valorization and Egypt Zohr production.
Yeah, on exploration, we may say that we have a very balanced and disciplined budget. As you know, we basically allocate money on ILX and near field opportunities, but also a minor component to the high impact well. And this was the strategy over the last seven years, which proved to be very solid and which we delivered upon. About Geng. Geng is clearly it shows the successful of our distinctive strategy, focusing on gas, focusing on nearby infrastructure availability, reinforcing our equity position in a very strategic area, and also supporting our dual exploration model and fast track development. So Geng, it includes all these features.
As you may have appreciated in the slide, we have quite a significant amount of resources discovered, but also a significant exploration upside, which would allow us, on one hand, to extend and expand the plateau of the current floating production unit in the southern area, but will also allow to build a new hub in the north area, where we have a significant upside potential on the exploration, which could extend significantly the plateau. In front of us, there is an LNG plant, Bontang, with a capacity of 22 million tons per year, which is, I would say, almost empty. At the moment, the capacity utilized is 5.6 million tons per year.
So we will be plenty of capacity to accommodate the plateau production coming from Geng discovery and the stranded assets which we bought from IDD, both in the north and in the southern area. I would also underline that this discovery is very liquid rich, and this helps also a lot to enhance the value of the asset. As far as Zohr is producing from 2.1 BCF-2.2 BCF per day. Now we are - and it's in line with our plans.
We are now running a number of projects and activities, drilling activities, infilling, specifically, but also other plateau extension activity to enhance the capacity of the facility to handle the current level of production of Zohr.
Just one quick follow-up on Egypt. Are you having any issues, kind of, on the currency side, given the devaluation and so on, in terms of getting money in and out?
Oh, we are not having issues with the currency because our contracts are in US dollars, so we don't have any impact on the valuation of the currency.
Thank you.
The next question is from Oswald Clint of Bernstein.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you. I'd like to go back to Indonesia just to get a little bit more details. It's clearly a massive discovery. And I was curious when you'll go after this multi TCF upside. Is this - can you get this into 2024 exploration drilling plan, where we can look at that? Is there any chance of any of the missing acreage blocks on your map that seem to extend away from this current discovery? Is there any license rounds coming up that you might participate in? And you know, would you run this at 88% equity? Or I think Francesco talked about valorizing it at some point, you know, is that a couple of years down the line? That's the first question.
Secondly, you know, as we think about new developments in, in places like Indonesia, your friend, Mr. Puliti, at Oil and Money this year, was saying he had to say no to a new FPSO job for a top client. Talking about lack of people, lack of, you know, and supply chain pressure. So I don't know if that was you, but it, you know, feeds into the view the supply chain is, is tightening up rather quickly. And so I wanted to ask about pressures you're experiencing and, and ultimately just how robust that 3%-4% volume growth is in the four-year plan. Thank you.
Okay. About the Dual Exploration Model, you know that this is something that you apply, generally speaking, in the various discovery. Clearly, this will depend on the opportunities, on the progress in term of development. It is a model that is, let's say, flexible. Clearly, by having an exposure on 88% after the acquisition net is an additional opportunity to extract and fast-track value. I leave them to Guido and then Aldo Napolitano, that is at the head of exploration. The answer related to the development, of the cost, and the exploration upside.
Now, clearly, the pickup of the activity, both traditional and green, is putting pressure on contractors, both in terms of capacity and ability to deliver activity, but also in terms of cost inflation. We know that from 2021 to 2022, there was an increase of 10% of costs overall, 7% from 2022 to 2023, and we expect a 4% year-on-year in the following year. So this clearly is factored in our CapEx estimation. The quality of the Geng asset is such that we expect a very competitive unit cost per development.
In terms of further exploration in the surrounding area, I would leave the floor to Aldo to give more color.
Yes, thank you, Guido. Yes, we are defining the plans for next year and future years in terms of further drilling in the area, the Equator Basin. Maybe you have noticed that we have already actually pursued a strategy in the acquisition of acreage in the area. We have recently, just a few months ago, actually had the award of another block in the area, the Peri Mahakam. As already explained, we have increased our shares in all the other blocks where we believe there's a good potential. We have not yet defined in detail our plans for future drilling, but certainly, this will be a focus area.
Yeah, you, you had also a question-
Thanks a lot.
Sorry, on the confidence of the planned growth for production of 3%-4%. This clearly, we have a strong pipeline of projects, namely Baleine in Ivory Coast, Congo LNG, A&E structure in Libya, and, last but not least, this Geng North, plus Mozambique, and other significant projects from other affiliates and our satellites in Angola, a new gas project and Agogo development, and from Vår, John Kasberg, and Balderik. With this pipeline of projects, which has been, most of them, already sanctioned in the plan and in execution, we are very confident to deliver this planned growth.
Very clear. Thank you.
The next question comes from Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca.
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on a SSC in carbon capture assets. And I believe recently you announced a new agreement with the UK with regards to HyNet, and you secured, basically, the first as a BES-regulated model. I was wondering if you can give us a bit more color on the economics, and what are the, let's say, the pros versus more traditional model. The second question is on GGP. I believe you contracted a fairly large amount of new volumes on the LNG, and you have a target of 18 million tons per annum by 2016.
I believe that you are basically pretty much there with the new volumes. I was wondering whether you could see upside basically to the long-term guidance there. And the final one, if I may, on Geng North. You talked about a lot of potential upside in terms of discoveries. I was wondering when will you be in a position to finalize the size of the next, the second, floating production unit? And whether potentially that has the capacity of doubling the current production in the country. Thank you.
Thank you, Alessandro. Two question are for Guido, and the last one, the GGP, is related, is to Christian.
Yeah, you're absolutely right. We have agreed with the U.K. authorities the main economic model terms. However, the final stage to assign the definitive economic license is still ongoing, and we are planning to complete this process by the second quarter of 2024, in order to have an FID, a cluster FID, which includes also the HyNet by the quarter three of 2024. The pricing is clearly and the economic model is based on a regulated asset base model, which is still, as I said, under finalization with the regulator. And it will include also some mitigations mechanism to reduce the risk related to this first of a kind project.
So basically, it's a return on the CapEx that you spend. on the project?
Yeah. Basically, it is this is the mechanism, the model.
Okay.
Okay. Yeah. Sorry, on the cost.
On the overall cost, including also the operating cost.
Yeah.
Yeah, thank you.
So on the LNG portfolio, let's say on the LNG supply contracted portfolio, as you said, we are, we have advanced substantially with these last three agreements that we have signed. We are now around 13 million ton contracted capacity. We want to achieve the 18 million ton by 2026. And sure, I mean, I think the big evolution on the Geng North discovery, this will give us some upsides on that target that clearly we are going to take into consideration when we draw the next plan.
Yeah, as far as the size of the potential North Hub, of course, it is still premature to say. But for the size of the current discovery and the asset and the knowledge we do have of the asset, we are planning something which is between 800 million standard cubic feet per day to one BCF per day, with also a significant liquid production between 50,000-60,000 barrels per day. This is for the knowledge, information, and data we do have today. Of course, we are still assessing the discovery.
Okay, so 50,000-60,000 barrels of liquids and plus on top the dry gas.
Yeah, the dry gas.
Okay, so it's.
The-
Doubling basically, more, more than doubling the production from Indonesia at the moment?
More than doubling our production from Indonesia. As you know, the southern area hub asset, Jangkrik, has a capacity, is producing 700 million standard cubic feet per day currently. And with the other asset discovered, which we will tie in as soon as the other asset will decline, we will maintain for longer this plateau. Yeah, so we are almost more than doubling the production.
Very interesting. Thank you. And, I guess FID probably sometime next year?
Yeah, this is the plan, of course, many moving parts, stakeholder engagement, final assessment, appraising of the discovery, but this is the target.
All right. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Irene Himona of Société Générale.
Thank you very much. My first question also on, on Indonesia, please, and, and congratulations on this substantial find. If you could perhaps give us a sense with the knowledge that you have now, a sense of timing for this startup. And then, is there enough uncommitted CapEx in the four-year plan to, to develop it with unchanged CapEx? That's the first question. The second one on Venezuela, what does it mean for Eni exactly that the U.S. have lifted sanctions at least for a few months? Thank you.
In terms of CapEx, clearly we are working on the four-year plan with all the changes that we are discussing, the sanctioning, the evolution of the portfolio, the new discovery that clearly has a high rating or ranking in our plan, because of the clear advantage of these volumes in terms of value, in terms of cost. So I think that you shouldn't expect a major increase. There is flexibility, as you mentioned. There are the commitments generally are clearly more focused on the first year than there are a declining firm commitment in CapEx along the plan. So there is space room for accommodating new initiatives.
On Venezuela, Venezuela clearly is now an opportunity. Clearly, we are still evaluating which are the options in terms of creating an additional stream for recovering our exposure. So far this year, we can say we are relatively satisfied with the capability to keep our exposure under control. Obviously, the opportunity of having more volumes and higher production from the country should help to increase also the number of lifting. I don't know if Guido would add something more on the Indonesia startup and Venezuela activity.
No, no. Indonesia, I think I've said, which is the target, for the FID. Of course, our approach on CapEx is to be disciplined, and we constantly rank our project when- there are assets which are more attractive than others. We reshuffle, and we continue to reshuffle our activity plan.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Michele Della Vigna of Goldman Sachs.
Thank you, and congratulations on the strong results. I have two questions. The first one comes back to Egypt. I was wondering if you could quantify the impact of potentially not getting any more supplies from Israel, if the current interruptions continue, and how that affects your GGP guidance? And secondly, going back to your balance sheet, especially in an age of higher interest rates, I was wondering if you could clarify a little bit some of the moving parts between variable and fixed debt, and how much benefit you can actually get from it, from the abundant cash that you have on the balance sheet? Thank you.
I leave it to Christian the first answer, and then I will keep the second one.
Yeah, sure. So, the current shutoff of the Tamar field clearly has an impact on the balance of the overall region. Because, as you know, I mean, Egypt was importing, and it's still importing gas from Israel, and this has reduced the amount of gas available for export. On the other extent, though, now consumption in the country is decreasing substantially due to the normal seasonal effect. So I think, I mean, we will see export resuming, you know, once this effect will be notable. When it comes to the impact on GGP, you know, the range that I gave, that we gave for the guidance actually includes already the uncertainty on the supply from Egypt.
I would say the guidance is resilient to that impact.
I think that we are in a very, let's say, favorable position, as 80% of our debt is fixed rate. And clearly, we benefit from the increase of rates and returns related to our large liquidity. Just to give you a figure that I think is quite interesting: last year, the net cost of our debt, so including the financial cost and the cash, or the benefit from our financial asset, was 2.3%. This year is 0.8%. So the increase of the interest rate is benefiting more proportionally our balance sheet, and therefore we are exposed to this trend clearly that will reduce at the end of the year our overall net cost.
Thank you.
The next question is from Henry Patricot of UBS.
Yes, everyone, thank you for the presentation. I have two questions, please. The first one on the guidance for 2023, for EBIT, raised to EUR 14 billion for the year. I mean, if I look at the implied EBIT for the fourth quarter, it looks pretty close to the EBIT you generated in the third quarter, despite what seems to be more positive macro assumptions for the rest of this year. So I was wondering whether there are other factors that would be more negative for EBIT and offset this better macro environment in the fourth quarter?
And secondly, I want to come back to Enilive and under the performance, so good to see the guidance going up for the year. Looking just on the third quarter, year on year, there's a bit of a decline here. So I was hoping you could expand on the moving parts that you see in this business, whether you're seeing the performance on the bullshit side, whether there is more pressure on the marketing business. I'm just seeing any, any details here. Thank you.
I have missed the second question. On the first one, you have to consider that this, the our business are not, are not, let's say, are, are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, you cannot extrapolate a linearity between the various, the various segments. So there could be clearly more linear performance in the upstream, but GGP, retail, marketing are all clearly following the different seasons. The difference, or the main, let's say, variable part between the third and fourth quarter is that you have a lower contribution from the, from the refining and from the marketing, downstream marketing. There is clearly, as we mentioned, a relatively mild change in the GGP. All the rest are relatively steady. In terms of the market of biofuel, I leave the question, the floor to Stefano Ballista.
Yes, the third quarter results for Enilive have been robust. We got to EUR 271 million. There is a reduction compared to last year, third quarter. It's related to the marketing business, and reason is twofold. Last year, we experienced one of the highest historical margin on retail. This year, year-on-year, we are experiencing on marketing retail, a competitive pressure that actually rose together with the rising of the oil prices. On the other side, we got extra result on wholesales activities, wholesales business, still on marketing, and this is thanks to a new strategy focused on overall optimal trade-off between volume and margin....
This is started beginning of the year, and if we look at the global figures of the first nine months, we are getting to a +9% compared to the nine months of last year. We are landing at EUR 611 million of EBIT. This is due for this wholesale strategy, and also given the optimal performance on bio business. Given these figures, we see an EBITDA guideline increase to around EUR 1 billion at the end of the year.
Helpful. Thank you.
The next question is from Henry Tarr of Berenberg.
Hi, guys, and thanks for taking my questions. Two, if I can. One, I think you mentioned an arbitration in GGP, potentially coming in Q4. Could you give any color on the potential materiality or what that relates to? That would be helpful. And then, just secondly, on Versalis. Clearly, the Novamont acquisition sort of gives an indication as to the aim for that unit. Is there anything else that can be done, sort of on a medium-term view, to improve profitability there, and how do you see sort of margins moving as we look into Q4 and 2024? Thank you.
Two questions, the first for Christian, the second for Adriano Alfani, that is the head of Versalis.
So look, the arbitration that I was referring to is litigation around a long-term contract that has been ended already, so it's actually, you know, a past legacy. And the possible outcome are well within the range of the guidance that we gave you. So, you know, the guidance, as I said, is resilient to that outcome.
Okay, thanks.
About Versalis and the Novamont acquisition, clearly, Novamont acquisition was a major step into bio or green chemistry, that in the whole portfolio of Versalis was pretty, pretty small. Clearly, now the main effort is to integrate this portfolio and to generate a complementary approach in term of channel to market, and so to complement portfolio product, but also portfolio in term of market participation, and so to enhance and get the most of synergy we can get. So we expect it to significantly grow the Novamont portfolio, but at the same time, the portfolio of Versalis. As we said last time, we expect that in the next few years, we should shift around 15% of our portfolio to specialize in green chemistry, including, of course, within green chemistry and circularity.
The situation in terms of chemical industry is pretty challenging. We don't expect significant improvement in Q4, also because the Q4 is low season for some market, like construction, especially for the winter, although the winter is pretty mild, but we don't expect any significant improvement in Q4 from a profitability point of view, so pretty much in line with Q3.
Okay, thanks.
The next question comes from Massimo Bonisoli of Equita.
Good afternoon, two questions. The first on Plenitude. How many clients do you expect to gain from the forthcoming liberalization process in the Italian regulated market? And, what would be the margin gap, for the new clients compared to your current average clients? Second question on LNG. Following the long-term supply agreements with Qatar and Indonesia, now, do you plan to secure some of the volumes with the end customers for the gas offtake, or would you like to keep those volumes for the spot market? Thank you.
Okay, Stefano Goberti for the Plenitude question, and again, Cristian Signoretto for the LNG.
Massimo, thank you for your question. First of all, we are following closely the process of the liberalization because we still a lot of rumor around, but no clear picture yet set. We will participate in the bidding. Still early time to see whether our bidding will be very much successful or not. Of course, we will play our game there. And in terms of margin squeeze, let's see what's the rule of the game will be set at the end with the regulation in place, and then we will decide how to participate and what to do exactly.
So on the LNG portfolio, you know, as you can imagine, we have a strategy of allocating our supply portfolio to a different line of business. So clearly spot and keep the portfolio exposed to the spot market is part of the strategy. But also, I would say part of the strategy, especially for the portfolio, which is more East of Suez, so clearly Indonesia would be part of that, is also to secure an outlet for the long term. And you know, this is, I think, a good moment also to be in the market, given the appetite for long-term LNG contracting in the east part of the world. And so, you know, we are currently actively marketing our portfolio in that part of the world.
The final question is from Alejandro Vigil of Santander.
Hello, thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions about Plenitude. One is about the performance of the retail business in the third quarter has been very strong, if it can be extrapolated for the next quarters, this performance. And the second question is if you can give us any color about the process of looking for new partners in this, for this business. Thank you.
About the process, the process of sales, then I will leave it to Stefano for the question on the performance of the third quarter. The process of sale is continuing, the discussions are continuing. A lot of details, a lot of, let's say, negotiation and paperwork to be completed, but I confirm that we are proceeding. We don't see so far any major hurdles towards the conclusion. Then I leave to Stefano.
Thank you, Alejandro, for the question. Of course, third quarter was a very good quarter. EUR 284 million, the EBITDA that we recorded this quarter, mainly coming from our retail activity. We have been working on the overall international European platform on managing the exposure. We have been working a lot on also defending our activity in Italy with working on the client base, and also offering what we call it added value services. So of course, these results are not one-off, are repeatable. That's why we also increase our guidance to year-end, to EUR 900 million of EBITDA.
Thank you very much.
That was the final question. Thank you for participating in the Eni conference.
Thank you to all the attendees, and, please, if you have any additional questions, our investor relation team is available for providing the details. Thank you and good afternoon.