Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome a nd thank you for joining the ERG second quarter 2022 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paolo Merli, CEO of ERG. Please go ahead, sir.
Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to our webcast. Here with me is Michele, our CFO, who will take you through the results in more detail after my opening remarks. Let me start summarizing the key figures over the period. I'm on page number four. For clarity, those numbers are based on continuing operations, excluding Hydro and CCGT from the scope. In a nutshell, results ended up being quite positive, mainly thanks to the contribution of new assets. I would say this is the main message. Looking at the first half, we closed with an EBITDA of EUR 277 million, up 55% year-over-year, driven up, as said, by capacity additions, both from M&A and organic growth. In other words, let me say like this, the semester reaped the benefits of all the significant investments made over the last 12 months.
We continued to invest heavily with CapEx at EUR 218 million in the first half of the year. Those likely less than the EUR 300 million last year, which I remind you included almost EUR 190 million of M&A. During the period in 2022, CapEx were related to the solar acquisition in Spain, EUR 96 million, and the remainder to the assets currently under construction in U.K., Poland, France, Sweden, and Italy from our, say, organic pipeline, both repowering and greenfield. Net profit from continuing operations was EUR 122 million, more than double year-on-year, reflecting the stronger operating results and lower financial charges.
For the sake of clarity here, net profit does not include any windfall taxes, either in Italy or in Romania, given that they are temporary and extraordinary measures, then accounted as non-recurring items for a total amount of about EUR 40 million, of which the EUR 6 million in Italy and EUR 4 million in Romania. All the details, of course, you will find on our financial statements. Net financial position at the end of June was about EUR 1 billion, slightly above EUR 1 billion, about half compared to the one at year-end 2021. Mainly reflecting the cash-in from the disposal and then, of course, the cash flow during the period, the investments, the dividends, all of the items, and Michele will comment later on.
Please note that the net financial position was inflated by roughly EUR 216 million related to the negative fair value of derivatives on commodities, given the huge swings in energy prices. This is an item that should reverse, say, by the end of 2023, given the rollout of these hedging delivery times. Let me move on page five to quickly comment on our recent achievements. We are moving forward in investing proceeds from asset rotation, thus expanding our portfolio of renewable assets in Europe. As you know, we acquired 18 solar plants in Italy and seven wind farms in Italy as well, all of them already in operation, for a total amount of 206 MW.
On top of that, we brought into operation a couple of wind farms from our organic pipeline, one in France, 20 MW, and another one in Poland for 25 MW. After our business plan presentation, it's important to remind you that Fitch confirmed ERG's investment grade rating and stable outlook. Our quasi-regulated business model was once again rewarded by the agency. We also kept implementing our ESG strategy, signing during the period, the Women Empowerment Principles, entering the United Nations Global Compact as a clear sign of our commitment towards a more inclusive approach. I'm also proud to say that our ESG strategy received further recognition, having been included in the top ten of the Integrated Governance Index, as well as MSCI confirming our double A rating.
Last but not least, I would like to remind you that there has been, as publicly announced, some important news about our shareholding structure during the period. Snam, San Quirico, and IFM Investors agreed to form a long-term partnership with a clear commitment to sustain our business plan and foster ERG's leading position in the RES space. We are all thrilled and honored to be a part of this, and personally confident that the partnership will result in upside for ERG and consequently for all our shareholders. The next couple of charts, some more details on the recent M&A, and on page number six here about the solar acquisition that was closed in early July. It will start contributing to our economic results as of July 1st. You already know everything.
Just to remind consistently with our business model that all the production is backed by feed-in premium tariffs that are gonna last, the so-called Conto Energia. They're gonna last up to 2030, 2031. This acquisition strengthens our solar presence in Italy, where we have now about 175 MW of installed capacity. We expect that the integration of these plants within our portfolio will allow us to achieve surely industrial synergies, but also to carry out some revamping and repowering activities going forward. In the next page number seven, there are here some more details on the agreement signed last week with EDPR to acquire seven onshore wind farms located in three regions in southern Italy.
The asset portfolio is made up of quite young assets, as you may see from their average commercial operation date, October 2019 on average, with a sound load factor and backed, once again, by CFD mechanisms. Mostly one-way CFD, six out of seven wind farms. Just one wind farm has got a two-way CFD. With this acquisition, ERG strengthens its leading position in the Italian wind market with a total installed capacity of about 1.3 GW after the completion of this acquisition. Let me say that this number is expected to further grow, after the deployment of our repowering pipeline, as well as our greenfield projects right now under construction. Those plants are strategically located, very near to our existing facility, and this will allow us exactly the same for the solar, to develop important industrial synergies.
Important to say that we expect the closing of this transaction late September after the antitrust clearance. Therefore, it will be consolidated as of Q4 2022. This is at least the assumption we made for our guidance. Let me now comment on page number eight. This is the most important chart to me, as it shows the execution of our business plan is very well on track. I would say ahead of schedule. Thanks to the significant investments made in 2021 and the first half of this year, we could count during the period on a larger asset base for about 450 MW, which was in the end what really drove our economic results up. We are continuing our journey forward towards a more geographical and technological diversification.
Please consider that 1/3 of these capacity additions is made of solar, and plants are spread over five different countries, as shown clearly in the chart. By the end of 2022, we expect to add further 400 MW made up of wind farms currently under construction in U.K., Poland, and Italy, plus the already commented acquisitions of solar plants and wind farms in Italy. This new capacity is going to start contributing to our numbers progressively over the second half of the year, and this has been reflected in our full year guidance, which I'll discuss later on. Before that, I'll now hand over to Michele for his review on results.
Thanks, Paolo. Now let's have a look at our second quarter 2022 results. Let's start with an overview of our unitary revenues trend. The all-in unitary revenues for wind were strongly higher year-on-year in all countries where we operate. With the exception of Italy, where there is likely decline, as the rise in electricity prices have been more than offset by the hedging made in line with our risk policy and by the 2022 value of the incentive, which declined from 109 EUR/MWh to 43 EUR/MWh, being inversely correlated to last year electricity prices. As regards the solar all-in unit revenues, we see values in line in Italy.
In Spain, where our assets have a tariff mechanism that operate as a floor to our revenues, the all-in price is aligned with the overall merchant scenario, and that's been influenced in the last quarter by the recent regulatory framework update that got capped in Spain. Overall, a positive scenario, in particular for our foreign countries. Now we focus on production. As regards the second quarter, we have in Italy, 545 GWh, +3.5% year-on-year, due to better wind conditions, coupled with better sun irradiation. In France, 224 GWh, +29% year-on-year. Thanks to 77 GWh coming from new perimeter that more than compensated the weaker average production of the period in comparison with quarter two 2021.
In Germany, 114 GWh, +29% year-on-year, benefiting the perimeter effect of 21 GWh due to the acquisition made in 2021 and slightly better wind volumes. In Eastern Europe, the production is in line with the second quarter 2021, which reflects a slightly better wind condition in Bulgaria, offset by lower wind volumes in Romania. On top of that, we have the contribution to the portfolio of the assets built in Northern Ireland in 2021 and acquired in Spain in January this year for a total of 109 GWh. In the first half, productions reached 2.7 TWh, mainly due to perimeter effects abroad and higher wind productions in East Europe.
In the second quarter of the year, we have an overall EBITDA equal to EUR 110 million, of which EUR 20 million from new assets. In Italy, the EBITDA was EUR 67 million in line year-on-year, mainly due to higher wind and solar volumes, with a negative price effect due to the hedging policy in the period, coupled with the lower value of incentive, as mentioned before. In France, the EBITDA was 46% higher year-on-year and equal to EUR 11 million, benefiting from the consolidation of the assets acquired in 2021. The perimeter effect is EUR 4 million. In Germany, the EBITDA almost doubled in the quarter due to a better scenario, thanks to the tariff structure, which is one-way CFD, and the perimeter effect.
In Eastern Europe, the EBITDA benefited mainly from better scenario, which resulted in an EUR 8 million contribution. It is worth mentioning that in quarter two 2022, U.K. and Spain have contributed to our result for EUR 13 million. First half EBITDA shows the strong increase of the geographical diversification in 2022. Almost half of our EBITDA comes from a diversified panel of European countries. Investments. Now a brief overview of investments in the period. In the first half of 2022, we invested EUR 218 million, an amount which is lower than the one invested in first half 2021, which was strongly influenced by M&A operations in France and Sweden. CapEx are composed as follows. About EUR 96 million of M&A related to the solar acquisition in Spain, 92 MW, whose closing took place in January this year.
About EUR 113 million related to organic CapEx in wind refer to construction activities, mainly in U.K., Poland, France, and Sweden. It also includes EUR 43 million of CapEx in Italy for the repowering projects in Sicily and the greenfield project of Roccapalumba. It is worth noting that we made important step forward in our construction works. With the entry into operation of Piotrków wind farm in Poland, 25 MW and Champagne 1 in France, 20MW. About EUR 5 million related to revamping of solar plants in Italy. This dismantling is going ahead in line with our targeting on circular economy. The waste in landfill will be a maximum of 90% in line with our ESG plan. About EUR 4 million related to maintenance CapEx spread across all countries.
We expect a strong increase in CapEx in the second half, thanks to the acquisitions just commented by Paolo. Let's now move on to financials, commenting on profit and loss on recurring basis. We have higher depreciation of EUR 4 million, which reflects the contribution of the new assets, so a perimeter effect. Net financial charges at EUR 6 million versus EUR 8 million in second quarter 2021, thanks to a lower cost of gross debt, mainly following the issuance of our third green bond in September 2021. Tax rate in the quarter was 24%, against 17% in second quarter 2021, mainly due to the lower impact from Italian tax benefit ACE on the higher EBT, driven by a very good EBITDA growth.
Taxation in the quarter does not include the effects of withholding taxes in Romania and Italy, as they are counted as non-recurring items. As of January 2022, CCGT is consolidated in the discontinued items, with a net profit in second quarter of EUR 9 million. As a result of all of this, the adjusted net profit of the quarter amounts to EUR 46 million. If we look at the first half of 2022, the adjusted net profit is equal to EUR 135 million, EUR 35 million higher than first half 2021. The tax rate at 22%, slightly higher than previous years. Finally, let's take a look at the cash flow statement and the net financial position for the first half. The net financial position closes at E UR 1.19 billion, EUR 1 billion lower than at the end of 2021.
Starting from the left, we have the cash in from hydro disposal, then our EBITDA, the investment made during the period, the change in working capital, financial charges, and tax and others. The net financial position includes EUR 260 million, due to the mark to market of future derivatives on commodities, executed according to our hedging policy. Let me just point out that the cash flow from taxes include EUR 16 million as down payment on windfall tax in Italy, and that we will pay the balance, EUR 24 million, in November. We expect a leverage of our financial position to reach a more balanced financial structure in the short term, thanks to the CapEx planned in the second half of the year. I think I have touched all the relevant items. Thank you for your attention. I will now hand over to Paolo for his final remarks.
Thanks, Michele. Here we are with guidance for 2022. I am on page number 18. We revised upward the EBITDA range by EUR 35 million. Therefore, the new range is EUR 485 million-EUR 515 million, with midpoint, say, at EUR 500 million. The upward revision basically reflects the contribution we expect in the second half of the year from the two recent acquisitions in Italy. I repeat, the solar one consolidated as of July first, and the wind one expected to be consolidated as of October 1st, so in the fourth quarter. Basically, for the same reason, CapEx guidance has been increased up to EUR 900 million-EUR 1 billion, this range, to factor the about EUR 0.5 billion investments in M&A.
Consequently, the new range for net financial position is EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 1.5 billion. Please note that the net financial position guidance at year-end still includes about EUR 200 million related to the negative mark to market of derivatives, which must be seen as a temporary debt that will reverse, as said, in 2023, with the rollout of hedging at the delivery time. Thanks, thank you very much for listening, and we are now ready to take your questions.
This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Enrico Bartoli of Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. I have a few. The first one is related to it, a little bit articulated. You announced recently these two acquisitions in solar PV and wind. I was wondering if this is, let's say, the start of an increased focus on Italy that we can expect over the next quarters and years. If we can expect that the growth of capacity on top of what you have in the business plan will derive from additional M&A opportunities or even organic growth in this country. Related to the two acquisitions, if you can provide us some indication of the IRR that you are expecting from those transactions.
Also, regarding the contribution from the wind plants, which are, as you mentioned, exposed to power prices in Italy, if we can expect that those plants in 2023 will contribute more than 2022. Second question is related to your hedging policy. If you can update us on where we are in terms of pricing and volumes, and in particular considering the current forward curve that is pointing to higher prices for next year. If you can expect the price effect that you are seeing in the numbers now to even accelerate next year. The last one is related to the 120 MW of repowering projects that you mentioned that have been authorized.
If you can give us the possible timing of execution of this project, and if they are going to participate to the next auction, so you are considering some PPAs, some indication on the route to market that you have in mind for those projects. Thank you.
Thank you, Enrico. Very, very clear, your questions. Let me start from the first one, about the M&A in Italy. Yes, those were a couple of important M&A in Italy compared to the last one that were all concentrated outside Italy. Let me say, we do not have right now further plans to push on the accelerator of M&A in Italy. In Italy, we are now quite happy with the size we reached after the most recent announced acquisition in wind. This allow us to consolidate our positioning as primary, as the primary operator in Italy, so we are quite happy with that. Please consider that, given that our.
All our repowering projects, + 47 MW plant right now under construction, a greenfield under construction, we will reach more than 1.6 GW of installed capacity in wind in few years. I think this is a quite sizable positioning for just one single country. Let's say that going forward, the M&A, that's my feeling for the time being, even though we can say we can't exclude anything. Let's say that, going forward, our M&A should be more concentrated outside Italy. About the IRR of the deal, let me say it's consistent, very much consistent with our rates for this kind of completely de-risk asset. Let me say, we should expect an unlevered return in the region of 7%.
This asset is completely financeable through green bonds, and then on a levered basis we should expect a return double digit or little bit little less than double digit or little more, but around, say, 10%. About the hedging policy, let me say, the price we have secured for 2023 is more or less on average on average EUR 115/ MWh, EUR 115, which is the average of the hedging done over the last few years, an average price of EUR 60-EUR 65 . The hedging we've been performing in 2022 with our price on average in the area of EUR 250. Now prices are even higher.
If I look at the forward for 2023, we have on the screen roughly EUR 350, and that's why it had, at the end of June, EUR 200 million, in excess of EUR 200 million, related to the negative mark to market of those hedging. That, in our forecast for the year end, so given the still movements that we have seen in the markets in July with very huge swing, particularly the gas price, in our guidance for the net debt, we expect a mark to market even higher than the one we reported at 30th of June. This is a, let me say, a temporary debt. It's financed by short credit lines at a cost very negligible, let me say.
It is something that will be completely reabsorbed by the end of 2023 when those futures we are gonna be closed because they got the delivery time. Please consider that our financial position guidance, EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 1.5 billion, is inflated by roughly EUR 200 million of negative mark to market, which is basically the EUR 200 million we had at 3rd of June, plus, which is positive, the rollout of hedging during the second half of 2022, plus the spike, the increase of 2023 mark to market because of the further pressure on price we have seen all over July. I hope to have touched this point. The second one, yes, you are right. We received a couple of autorizzazioni uniche for sole authorizations.
For lack of a better word, it's my translation. Two sole authorizations for two wind farms repowering, both repowering projects. One is Castelvetrano-Salemi, 80 MW near Trapani in Sicily, and the other one is Greci Montaguto. It's a 40 MW wind farm located in Campania. Let me be very transparent with you. All these two projects already participated to the last auction that closed for the awarding of the CFD that was closed at the end of June.
For one of the two projects, the smaller one, Greci Montaguto, we pulled out after few analysis because the price at EUR 60 is not any longer enough, say, to make this investment sustainable, given that the higher prices are boosting the value of the existing assets, because, you know, the IRR of any repowering project must be measured on a differential basis. You are gonna dismantle an existing asset that today, nowadays, is worth much more than it used to be, given the price scenario, and then invest to substitute with a new one. While the first project, Castelvetrano-Salemi, is a much bigger one, more windy because we are talking about an asset that's got 2,700 hours. So it's a fantastic asset. We triple the installed capacity.
For all the specificities of the plant, this plant is sustainable from an economic point of view, even with the EUR 60/MGh , which is a cap reachable from the auction. Please consider that I'm not saying that the Greci Montaguto or other projects we are not going on with those projects. There is another way, another route to market, which is the PPA. We will move on also with the other projects, but maybe looking for a PPA, and hoping that in the meantime, the Ministry of the Energy Transition will adapt the auction system with prices that are more consistent with the current environment, characterized by the so-called green inflation. I hope to have touched all your concerns.
Yes, yes. Thank you very much. Very clear.
The next question is from Roberto Ranieri of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. I hope you can hear me. I have a couple of follow-up and one or two questions on the outlook and regulatory issues. First follow-up is on repowering. Paolo, it would be very useful if you can give us any update, not only in the short term, but also in 2023 and 2034, on how the repowering is going on, and in particular, if you see any stop or any delays due to regulatory and authorization process. My second question is on the outlook.
Do you think that, you know, I'm afraid that the capacity development in Italy seems to be pretty slow. I mean, if we want to achieve 70 GW capacity increase for a 55 GW plan, I think that my feeling is that we have to go at a very higher speed in terms of capacity development. What is happening in this field? More than that, what do you expect from the government to speed up the capacity improvement in Italy? My third question is on regulatory issues and taxation. If we look at Europe, we see that the
There are also different schemes of proposals and in terms of taxes. Do you think that this, I don't think this current government, but the next government could deploy some additional taxes like taxes on revenues as in Spain or differently. I'm wondering what is your feeling about the taxation items and outcome in the last few months. On the auction prices, a follow-up on this item.
If I understand, you know, you have an alternative, all the operators have an alternative to the auction, the auction prices, which are pretty low, if you look at the current scenario. The most important could be the PPAs. According to your feeling, do you think that the authorities are going to increase these auction prices in the next future? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Roberto. Okay. Try to go quickly down the list of your questions, starting from the first one about repowering. I'd say I can try to give you a general view. The repowering is going on very well in terms of permitting. Consider that basically almost all our projects have completed the authorization say faster. Let's say that now the question for us is whether to delay some repowering or doing it right now because on a differential basis it seems on paper that postponing the repowering in terms of value creation must be stronger. This is a positive for the company because the repowering once fully authorized is in your pocket.
You can do it, maybe not now, but in a couple of years. For the time being, I'm fully transparent with you. The project that have already been fully authorized, where we order the wind turbines and blah, we are going on. We are perfectly on track with the timetable envisaged in our business plan. For other projects that where maybe we got already the full authorization, but we still can decide when exactly starting up the project, we are making some more analysis in order to understand is from an equity point of view, from a value point of view, it's better to start soon or as soon as possible, or maybe delay a little bit. Let me say, the general view is that all our projects are worth to be maintained in our business plan. It's a matter of just we are doing now or we are waiting a little bit. That's my point.
Sorry if I interrupt you, Paolo. Basically, I understand that the problem is not the authorization process, it's just a problem of opportunities. You are waiting for exploiting the maximum value from the project.
Roberto, let me be even more clear than that. EUR 60, which is the price set in the FER decree, that, don't forget, was issued in 2019, wasn't meant to be inflated because the decree does not envisage a possibility of inflating the cap, is not any longer enough to attract all the investments needed to reach the 2030 target. I'm coming to your second question.
Okay.
The 70 DQ which means at least every year, this number is gonna be higher, no? Because you have to divide.
Yes.
The 70 GW by a number of years left to 2030, which is lower and lower. Now it means almost installing 10 GW of renewable capacity every year. We are far away from this point. Even according to the TSO data for the first semester, if it's good, we should have installed in Italy as a country, 1,000, so 1/10 of what needed. We are not yet where we need to be. That's the point.
Yes.
The government has done a lot of work in simplifying the procedures, but it's not enough because the real point is to identify the so-called go-to areas or the eligible regional areas. That's the point. This is what is written also in the REPowerEU declaration issued just a few months ago at the European level. They said we need to identify the go-to areas. Windfall measures. I don't know what to expect because we are prepared for everything in this kind of scenario. The predictability of anything is very difficult. Let me say that I would be very surprised if the government should issue further measures like those.
Italy was the only one in Europe taking this kind of measure because they proved to be very inefficient, and they scare the investor, they scare the industrial operator that should be the ones, you know, leading the energy transition discourse. We are already talking about an underperformance in terms of installed capacity every year. Just touch this point. I think now, why I think that would be a big mistake? Because those are kind of quick fixes to long-term trend, because the energy prices are there to remain high, maybe not at this level, but they should find structural mechanisms to reduce the cost of energy. I think in the declaration of the authority, the energy authority issued just a few days ago, and I can subscribe to every statement that was written in that document.
The authority clearly said that we need to insert a price cap on the gas market that is driving up the energy prices in the TTF market, but not a temporary measure like those that are, you know, changing the rules through which the operators must be relying in order to invest safely in the energy transition. Yeah, PPA and auction, yeah, I think I have already answered. The problem is the level of prices in the current auction. We know that the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security is working to release a new decree on FER that was expected by the end of the year, setting up the new auctions for the future.
Unfortunately, I'm among those that are very sorry for that, the government in the meantime fell down. No, it's still there, but it's expected to resign, say, September, October, whenever a new government will be formed, and this shouldn't help. Let me be honest, shouldn't help in this direction. Let's see what the Energy Transition Ministry will be able to manage from now till this government will remain in place. I'm quite confident that Mario Draghi will push as much as he can to issue the needed decree. Let me say, sorry, I'm optimistic, but let's see. Let's see what's going on. Very difficult to say.
Thank you very much.
That's everything.
The next question is from Roberto Letizia of EQUITA SIM. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I want to stick on the coverage and the hedging on next year. You provided us a price for the next year hedges. I was wondering if you can give us also a quantity on how much of the output for next year has been covered at that price. As you split up also the contribution of the old hedges done in 2020 and 2021, I was wondering when those hedges will expire, in order to better understand how will be your sensitivity on the future power prices. Thanks for these clarifications. I would like to ask you what exactly is the contribution of the newly acquired asset in the guidance. I guess you meant a differential of EUR 35 million.
Was wondering if this EUR 35 million is wholly attributable to the acquisition, and specifically, if you can give us an idea, general idea of what's the expected contribution for the wind acquired from EDP. Those with that will enter only in the fourth quarter. How much of that you assume to be the contribution in 2022? I would like to move for a while, if possible, on 2023. In terms of capacity that you reasonably expect to be added next year, provided the amount of asset and authorization that you currently have in hand. What's the reasonable potential capacity addition next year?
Very quickly, if the EUR 40 million taxation impacts that are one-off are already the full year accountancy of what could be the impact for 2022. Just two other quick questions. Wondering if you can say a word on the PPA market, so the industrial PPA market, if you are in discussion with players and if you believe that the price that you currently can get from those corporates is still in the region of EUR 100/MWh or anything is moving up or down in this market. The very final one on the turbine procurement. Sorry if I made all these questions, but on the turbine market, can... If you can give us an idea on how much of the plan is currently covered by already contracted asset and how much is yet to be contracted going forward. Thanks a lot for your time.
Okay, Roberto. Try to answer. I see here six questions. The first one, hedging. Say the volumes we cover roughly 1.4 TWh of production. Let me say 1.1 is about 2023, and 0.3 TWh. So let's say 1.4 TWh, 1.3 TWh in 2022, and 1.3 TWh and 1.1 TWh for 2023. The price at which we hedge those production are more or less the same, say EUR 260-EUR 250/ MWh on average. Please consider that, for instance, in Italy, the incentive in 2023 will go to zero based on the mathematical formula to which the incentive is calculated.
You know, EUR 180 less the merchant price in the year before, that is 2022, and this year probably the price will be in the region, for sure higher than EUR 108. Yes, you are right. This mark to market that is expected to be at the end of the was at EUR 260 million at 30 June, is expected to be notwithstanding the rollout during the second half of the year, still at EUR 200 million. Fully factored in our net financial position guidance at the end of the year should go to zero by the end of 2023, because all the hedging we were talking about now was basically up to 2023.
We have a very, very small amount because we have slowed down this coverage, this hedging, given the very high volatility of those instruments. That should absorb liquidity, as you may have seen for other larger names than ours. In when they reported the results for the semester. We avoided to go on with hedging for longer duration, I mean 2024 and 2025. All the hedging, I repeated, is limited basically to 2023. About the prospects, I already said that we target to reach 3 GW of installed capacity by the end of the year, adding further 400 MW of installed capacity in the second half of the year. 206 are basically the two acquisitions in Italy. Then we have a couple of wind farms in Scotland.
One is Creag Riabhach, 93 MW, and the other one is Sandy Knowe, 86 MW. Let's say a big portion of those megawatts should be already fully up and running by the end of the year. The remaining megawatts should be seen in the first month of 2023. We have 62 MW in Sweden that is right now under construction, and it's not included in the 3,000 MW because this asset is expected to enter into operation in the first quarter of 2023. There are other projects, but they are basically the ones already included in our business plan. In September, we will run once again our business plan with the new scenarios and so on, and I hope to.
We will be ready to give to the financial community a serious update, say, March 2023. PPA. Yes, confirm that the market is scaling up, not just in Italy, also in Europe, because this kind of situation made for consumers, offtakers, PPA more attractive. In fact, this market, which used to be completely a buyer market, now, I wouldn't say that it's becoming a seller market or producer market, but, has changed quite significantly. As the PPA we signed, for instance, in Scotland, recently had demonstrated. Probably right now the pricing would have been even higher than that. The wind turbine procurement, say the framework agreement basically covers all the repowering projects.
Notwithstanding that, we, I can tell you, we can have some overrun cost anyway, even though more than offset by the surrounding price scenario. Let me say that the procurement of a wind turbine on a completely new project, this is not a matter for Enel. This is a matter for the industry. It's gonna cost, in our opinion, based on our analysis, at least 20%-30% more than it used to be before, say, the Russian invasion, but in general, the inflation dynamics that we have started seeing, in the second part of 2021.
The LCOE, that's our view, the LCOE of both wind and solar is expected to, after a few decades of continuously declining, should reverse, and that's why I'm asking loudly to revise the auction system with higher prices. Because if we wanna get there, to 2030 with the installed capacity declared by the European Commission and every member state, we need systems more attractive than the current one.
Contribution.
Sorry?
Contribution of new asset and guidance.
Sorry. I forgot. I say the EUR 35 million, yes, you are right, is basically the sum of the two, say, EUR 10 million , more or less for solar and EUR 25 million for wind. Maybe, as I told you, it's slightly conservative, let me be honest, slightly conservative, the guidance, but in this kind of unpredictable and very volatile market, we can't exclude anything.
Maybe the guidance of EBITDA is a little bit conservative based on the forward prices that we are seeing for the next part of the year, but we can't exclude and in some way, let me say, even though maybe it's against our economics, in some way it would be appreciated if European Commission decided to put a cap on gas in order to keep the energy prices under more control. Let me say that our guidance is based also on an outlook for energy prices that is say cool off quite significantly in the second part of the year compared to what the forwards and the screens are saying right now.
Yes. Thanks, Paolo. Sorry. On capacity before was on 2023, not 2022, because that was clear. If you don't wanna give a precise number, what's actually the rate of annual addition that you think now ERG has reached?
Roberto, I let you make your own assumptions. For sure, the investor relations will help you, but I don't want to give precise guidance on that. For sure.
All right. Thanks
In 2023, the contribution of new asset is gonna be much stronger than the one in 2022 because it's a simple equation. Most of them have entered or are entering, say, in the second part and the last part of the year. 2023 should see the full contribution of the assets. Let me wait, because still we have to work on a price scenario for 2023. We are still based on a price scenario that was updated in March, say March, April. Now that maybe it's quite evident that the prices could be stronger than that. Sorry, Roberto, but I can be more precise than that.
The next question is from Nash Cui of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Congratulations on the strong results. Two questions left from me. The first one is around dividend. I just wonder with RSM Infrastructure becoming a very large shareholder, how that will change your dividend policy, do you think? Just think about special dividends. What will trigger special dividends for ERG? If you can provide the color, that would be great. Then my second question is on storage, 'cause I remember previously you said storage will be a key growth part, probably not a key growth part, will be an important part of the strategy, but I don't see any mention of storage this quarter. Just wondering if there's any update on that. Thanks.
Okay. Nash, thank you for your question. I must say as far as dividend is concerned, let me say that our practice is to define the dividend at year-end, at least, when we have clear visibility on the results of the year. Our dividend policy has always been the same over the past kind of increasing the dividend just if it's sustainable in the future. I don't see space in this moment that we will reason about that at the end of the year. But I don't see reason to pay a special dividend because the company right now, it's true that diversified a lot, and the capital gain from the asset rotation will be seen. It's already evident in the financial statement at 30 June.
We posted a capital gain of EUR 340 million on the sales, on the sale of Hydro. At the same time, we reinvested basically all the proceeds, because in 2021, we invested EUR 650 million. Now, we expect to invest in 2022 almost EUR 1 billion, a little bit less than that. Let's say, in two years, we should have invested roughly EUR 1.6 billion, which is basically all the amount, the proceeds we are expecting from the two disposals. Please, I take the chance to say that our net financial position guidance at the end of the year includes the disposal of the CCGT at the price we have already announced. I wouldn't see special dividend.
About the ordinary dividend, please be patient in the sense that we need to see how the year is gonna finish and to see it all together with the next four or five years business plan based on the updated scenario or updated installed capacity evolution and blah blah. For sure, I can guarantee that EUR 0.90 are there, and that's must be seen as a floor. Then in a few months, we will take a decision on that as well. Hope, Nash, to have answered your curiosities and questions.
Yeah, that's very helpful.
Thank you.
The last question is a follow-up from Enrico Bartoli of Mediobanca.
Sorry. I forgot to answer the second. My colleagues claimed that I forgot to answer the answer about the storage. Yes, the storage was part of the business plan. Please then consider that we have in a plan a target of 500 MW of storage, battery storage, but those were expected in the last years of the business plan because we just launched this recharge project in 2021, so we are a little bit behind on that. In this environment, let me say that the storage inflation is probably even higher than for other technologies. We have to reassess all the projects we have in our pipeline. I'm not saying that we are not going on, but we need to carefully assess all of them, given the price pressure on all the materials associated to the battery storage. Sorry.
Perfect. Thanks a lot, Paolo. Very clear.
Okay. Thanks to y ou, Nash.
The last question is a follow-up from Enrico Bartoli of Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Mr. Bartoli, your line is open.
Yeah, sorry. Was on mute. Sorry, a quick follow-up regarding the hedging, your answer to Roberto Letizia. Just to be clear, before you mentioned the EUR 115, which is the average of the EUR 65 of all hedging and the new one at EUR 150 and EUR 160. It's correct to interpret that the EUR 65 will be the price that we are going to see in the second part of this year. For 2023, we have to take into account that EUR 150-EUR 160 that you mentioned, and that price can be even applied to the regulated assets, considering that the incentive will be zero next year.
The very last one is that I was missing this related to Europe, in particular Germany and Poland. There were some regulatory changes recently by the government allowing more space for development of renewables, the 10H rule in Poland, rule that was canceled. I was wondering that if compared to the targets that you have in your business plan, this initial changes in regulation can provide some upside for your development in those two countries.
Okay, Enrico. Now follow up. On the hedging, let me say that. Okay, maybe scale has got more detail.
For me, EUR 115, roughly, is the average price that we have initially for 2023. For 2022, the hedge was executed well in advance, and so the price was the one that we have communicated in previous webcast. It is in the region of EUR 64/MWh-EUR 65/MWh . This is bigger EUR 115 in this area is for 2023. Just to clarify this point.
Okay. Thanks.
The prospects on Poland and other countries. Say, Enrico, yes, you're right. They are all trying to simplify. Every member state, I think, is trying to create the right conditions to attract investments from internal operators, but also from outside investors. Poland is proving to be a quite reliable market. Take, for instance, the auctions that are quite significant in terms of amount. The mechanisms are more efficient in the European countries because the tariffs there are inflated and so on. Yes, they are moving even further. Please consider that Poland is one. That was the reason why we decided to enter the country. It is a country that still works on coal and seeks to decarbonize.
Coal.
Sorry. It's so hot here. Coal and lignite. There's a huge need for renewable in Poland. In our plan, in our business plan, there were just the projects coming from our pipeline. For sure, I can tell you that it's a country that we are looking with renewed interest and could come more than what we expected in our plan.
The very last question is from Philippe Ourpatian of ODDO. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. I have just one question considering the two acquisitions you made concerning the solar in Italy and wind in Italy. When I'm looking at the price, I mean, in terms of EV/MW for both acquisitions, we are quite far away. The average transaction we recorded in Europe, including, I would say, for the Italian wind, what the figure recorded by EDPR itself means that we are for solar is almost 3x higher than the average, which is almost around EUR 1 million . For the wind in Italy, we are around 50% higher than the 1.7x average, EUR 1.7/MW installed, which is on average in Europe. Could you just explain why there is this kind of deviation?
Is it because competition, synergies or something which allow you to reach your return, but why there is this deviation in terms of price you paid, per installed capacity? Many thanks.
Sorry, I was on mute. I was talking by myself. You know, good afternoon, Philippe. Let me say like this, the EV/MW is just one of the KPI you have take into consideration when assessing the value of an asset, okay? Because, the megawatt is always the same. 1 MW can produce 3,000 hours or can work just 1,000 hours. Depends on the quality of the assets, depends this value, this say ratio, depends on the COD, the commercial operation. The asset is younger and new, this multiple tends to be higher. If the assets are older, vice versa.
The third crucial point, in this case, it was what made the difference, is the capacity of the asset to generate cash flow, and this is mainly related to the route to market mechanisms. In these cases, differently from other assets in Italy, those plants got one-way CFD. That means the assets are exposed to the merchant component. That is, an upside for the assets. In the end, I think it's a very limited analysis, just looking at the EV/MW . Sometimes I'm surprised when see some comments in general in the market because, for me, what's more important is the EV/EBITDA. The EV/EBITDA, you can simply extract it.
You see that the asset has posted EUR 36 million of EBITDA in the first half. This is an actual number, and we reported it because when we acquired this asset in the contract, there is a locked box date mechanism, and then this EBITDA is part of what we have bought. It's simple to double by two, sorry. Take that EBITDA and the enterprise value divided for that EBITDA, you will see that it doesn't seem so expensive at all. The competition, that's the last part of the equation, there was a very tough competition on the dossier. Philippe, I hope to have answered your question, you know.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
Okay. You're welcome.
Mr. Merli, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. Thank you very much, to you all. I wish a fantastic summer, and see you in the second part of the year. Thank you.