Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the ERG Q3 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paolo Merli, CEO of ERG. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our webcast. Here with me, as usual, is our CFO, Michele Pedemonte, who will later run you through our business performance over the period in more detail. So let's get started with the overview of results for the period. I am on page 4. Numbers here are based on continuing operations, excluding CCGT, which is still present in our reported figures up to the end of September. As already announced on October 17, we finally closed its disposal to Achernar Assets AG, thus completing our transformation into a pure renewable player. For the sake of clarity, figures are presented also net of clawback measures and windfall taxes. Anyway, later on, Michele will provide you with all details.
In a nutshell, I would say results are pretty much in line with our expectations, though lower year-on-year at the EBITDA level, mainly as a result of the very tough comparison in terms of price scenario. As in Q3 2022, prices were at peak levels. This factor, this price factor, was only partly offset by significantly higher productions, up 26% year-on-year, as a result of the larger installed capacity and better wind and solar conditions in the period. So in the end, EBITDA closed with EUR 102 million, down compared to EUR 118 million last year. As said, this was entirely due to the sharp decline in electricity prices, coupled with the zeroing of incentive price in Italy, resulted in this very tough comparison.
Say, the price effect, just to give you an idea, had an impact of about EUR 40 million or slightly above this number. This was almost or in big part offset by higher productions. Notwithstanding those trends, results at bottom line were very satisfactory and in line year-over-year, as the lower operating results were fully offset by lower financial charges, thanks to higher yields on our liquidity. Over the nine months, adjusted net income was EUR 149 million, so up 30% or almost 30% year-over-year, partly thanks to no windfall taxes in 2023. We invested, over the nine months, almost EUR 400 million, lower than the same period last year, which was boosted by M&A or more M&A.
CapEx was related to the advancements for assets under construction, both repowering and greenfield projects. As far as repowering, in the Q3, we completed the construction of our second wind farm in Italy, at Camporeale. Net financial position at the end of September was EUR 1.406 billion, slightly down compared to 2022 year-end. As cash flow and dividends from our power, ahead of the sale of CCGT to Achernar, more than compensated dividend payments to our shareholders and investments amounting, I said, to almost EUR 400 million. All in all, I would say resilient economics and solid, very solid balance sheet. Now, a quick update on our main achievements during the quarter on page 5. So I've already said, first of all, I think it's worth mentioning the closing of the CCGT deal.
This was a top target for us for the year and a fundamental milestone in our strategic journey. As we work towards this disposal for two years, with this transaction, we completed the transformation of ERG into a pure renewable player, and it's also, say, a crucial step to reducing our carbon footprint, pursuing our net zero carbon target, as shown clearly in the graph. As far as our growth, we are also moving forward with the expansion of our RES portfolio in Europe. We started up our, as said, second recovery project in Italy, at Camporeale, 50 MW.
We made an important step ahead with our diversification in PV Solar in Spain, with the completion of construction of the Garnacha Solar plant, 149 MW, which is now at an advanced stage of commissioning, and we expect the solar farm to be fully up and running by the end of the year. Also, thanks to our strong financial position, we launched a buyback for a max amount of 2.5 own shares, as we believe that our share price performance was overly penalized by the extreme volatility in the financial markets, exacerbated, let me also add, by the negative performance of the renewable energy sector as a whole, at a clawback level. Now, over to Michele for his comments on the Q3 and nine-month results.
Thank you, Paolo. First of all, please note that all the figures presented here are net of the effect of clawback for windfall profit taxes. In Q3, electricity market prices have been slightly lower than previous year. This trend has partially influenced our all-in unitary revenues, which are mainly dependent on incentive, feed-in schemes, long-term PPA, and short-term hedging made in the past. In Italy, for example, unitary revenues are influenced by the value of the incentive on the majority of our assets, which is nearly 23 in 2023, versus 42 EUR/MWh in 2022, and by the lower market price captured in the quarter, compared to the market price at its historical peak in the Q3 of 2022.
So all in all, unitary revenues had a strong decline from EUR 183 /MWh to EUR 93/MWh. The structure of the Italian green incentive will allow a recovery of the electricity price below EUR 180/MWh in next year. This will be a significant positive reversal expected for next year, in 2024. In France, large majority of our assets operate under FIT scheme without exposure to market prices. Anyway, the portfolio all-in price is lower than previous year, because of the few assets at merchant prices. In Germany, capture price in Q3, lower than Q3, of, of last year. P revious year was influenced by the one-way price structure that allowed us to capture merchant, merchant, higher merchant price.
Eastern Europe, unitary revenue decreased in Q3, driven by Romania and Bulgaria, mainly, due to lower merchant prices. In U.K., the all-in unitary revenues in the quarter is influenced by new PPA prices of our recently completed asset in Scotland, and by revenues from balancing services market. The all-in unitary revenues in the quarter are higher than the one captured by the old PPAs on our Northern Ireland asset in Q3 2022, by EUR 78 /MWh, clearly showing the improvement of the PPA conditions over time. As regards the solar all-in unitary revenues, there is an increase of value in the Q3 in Italy. Thanks to higher fixed price than the hedging of the previous year, coupled with the end of the Italian clawback rule that impacted our asset in Q3 of last year.
In Spain, where our assets have a price mechanism that operates as a floor to our revenues, all-in prices are influenced by short-term hedging, made in line with our risk policy. Now a focus on production. Nine months productions reached 4.2 TWh, 0.6 TWh higher than previous year, mainly due to perimeter effect. Production coming from abroad represent more than 50% of the group's total productions. As regards in Q3, we are in Italy, 584 GWh, +80% year-on-year. Thanks to better wind condition and better irradiation compared to last year, coupled with a perimeter effect, +39 GWh from wind assets acquired in September 2022, and repowering plant entered in operation from June 2023.
In France, 229 GWh, +23%, thanks to better wind conditions in comparison to a very weak Q3 last year. In Germany, 107 GWh, +30%, again, thanks to better wind conditions. In Eastern Europe, volumes higher than Q3 of 2022, mainly due to assets entering operation in Poland in the last quarter of 2022. In U.K., Northern Ireland and Nordics, we have 109 GWh, almost three times year-on-year, thanks to the assets energized by the end of 2022 and in early 2023 in Scotland. Production in Scotland and Northern Ireland are influenced also by a remunerated balancing services market in Scotland, and grid containment in Northern Ireland.
Low production in Sweden, due to prolonged test and commissioning activities on the Furuby wind farm, where we are progressing on the technical issues encountered during startup. In Spain, 56 GWh, +14%, thanks to the production of the newly acquired plant that entered in operation in July. In Q3 of the year, we have an overall EBITDA, net of global, equal to EUR 102 million, lower than the one of the Q3 of 2022, mainly due to lower capture price than previous year. When prices benefited from extremely high market scenario, partially offset by perimeter effect, and better wind condition.
In Italy, the EBITDA is EUR 66 million, lower than Q3 2022 by EUR 19 million, mainly due to lower captured price, driven by lower value of the incentive, which is null in the Q3 2023. Partially offset by the perimeter effect and better wind condition, both on wind and solar asset. In France, the EBITDA is EUR 8 million, benefiting from better wind condition compared to the extremely low production of last year. In Germany, the EBITDA is EUR 9 million, aligned with previous year, mainly due to better condition, better production in the period, offset by lower captured price. In Eastern Europe, EBITDA at EUR 7 million, lower than last year due to lower sales price, partially offset by perimeter effect in Poland.
In UK and Nordics, now, the EBITDA is higher than Q3 by EUR 10 million, mainly due to perimeter effect. In Spain, the EBITDA is EUR 8 million higher than Q3 2022, mainly due to higher captured price and perimeter effect, as already commented in the, in the production, on the production slide. Nine months EBITDA is EUR 365 million, lower than previous year, mainly due to a lower price scenario, where 2022 was a historical peak, only partially offset by perimeter effect. In 2023, around 40% of EBITDA comes from assets outside Italy, versus thirty-one percent previous year. Let's comment now on investment in the period.
In nine months, we invested EUR 377 million, an amount which is lower than the one invested in nine months, 2022. Please note, the previous year investments were influenced by EUR 610 million of acquisition of wind and solar plants, mainly in Italy, versus EUR 184 million of them in this year, for solar asset in Spain. In the first nine months of the year, we executed about EUR 195 million of organic CapEx in wind. In particular, I underline EUR 129 million of CapEx in wind, in Italy, for repowering and greenfield projects in season. Let's now move on to the financials, commenting on either item, the profit and loss. In Q3 2023, net financial charges at EUR 1 million, versus EUR 6 million in Q3 last year.
Mainly influenced by increased liquidity remuneration in a scenario of higher interest rate, with the debt structure, or may almost completely at very competitive fixed rate, plus that cost of around 1.4%. Tax rate in the quarter is 27%, in line with previous year. As a result of all of this, the adjusted net profit and continued operation of the quarter amount to EUR 35 million, in line with the previous quarter. In line with Q3 of 2022. That included windfall profit taxes, for a total amount of EUR 14 million. The adjusted net profit on continued operation of the nine months amount to EUR 149 million, including EUR 9 million of global measures, versus EUR 115 million in 2022.
That included Italian and Romanian extra profit taxes, for a total amount of EUR 54 million. In the quarter, we still have the CCGT, consolidated in the discontinued items. In this chart, you can find a summary of the effects of the global measures and windfall taxes, taxes affecting our fleet. The impact on EBITDA and net profit in the quarter is negligible, because of the sharp electricity price decrease, and it refers mainly to Eastern Europe and France. In Romania, the government set a compulsory PPA mechanism at a cap price, roughly EUR 90/ MWh, which has the same substantial effect of the global measures, but is not reported here. Comparing net profit net of global, we see a substantial increase versus nine months 2022. That was heavily affected by Italian windfall profit tax.
Finally, let's take a look at the cash flow statement and the net financial position for September 2023. The net financial debt closes to EUR 1.4 billion, 28 million lower than the end of 2022. Driven by a solid cash generation from EBITDA, EUR 365 million, cash in from equity distribution from ERG Power, and reduction of mark-to-market of derivatives on commodities. This impact, these impacts are netted by the already commented investment of the period, of EUR 377 million, and dividend payments for EUR 152 million, including EUR 3 million to minorities.
Considering the equity distribution from ERG Power in the quarter, and that the net financial position of the asset is already accounted in the discontinued items, adjusted at the end of September, already shows the effect of the disposal of CCGT closed at the beginning of October. Thank you for your attention. I will now hand over to Paolo for his comments and guidance.
Thanks, Michele. Before going through guidance for 2023, let me update you on the execution of our strategy and targets over the years so far. . As you can see from the chart, through a combination of M&A and organic growth, we expect to add a further 400 MW gross by year-end, which is bang in line with, and I would dare to say, in advance of, the trajectory of the business plan. It's worth mentioning that out of these 400 MW, a total of 210 MW is now fully operational. In addition to that, I said we just completed the construction of the 149 MW in Spain, and the site is now in the commissioning phase, and is expected to be at full speed, say, by year-end.
We start this week the wind turbine erection at Roccapalumba wind farm in Sicily, the 47 MW one signed with Blu, which is the last asset expected to enter by year-end, and with its full contribution, as all the other assets, in 2024. This growth, let me say, will continue to be a driver of our results going forward, in particular in 2024, when we expect all those assets to reach their full potential. So let me move on. Page 17. This chart, I think, adds visibility to execution of our growth strategy.
All in all, we still have 387 MW under construction, of which 27 should be, as said, completed by year-end, and the remaining will be completed during the course of 2024 and 2025. On top of those assets under construction, we have roughly a further 150 MW that is now fully authorized and in a sort of a pre-construction assessment. So we can count on sustainable and visible growth in line with our objectives. Now, let me take a look at the guidance for the last part of 2023. Q3 results, as said, were bang in line with our budget, and the Q4 started off well, with better wind availability across Europe.
As such, in line with our policy to update our board and the financial community on a quarterly basis, we have moved up our expected EBITDA range slightly, now seen at EUR 490 million-EUR 520 million. So compared to the previous EUR 480 million-EUR 510 million. We are maintaining our guidance on CapEx and net financial position. Let me underline that the latter, in particular, remains unchanged, despite the expected cash out relative to the ongoing buyback program, with an expenditure in excess of EUR 60 million by year-end. We are moving forward very well to create the conditions for a stronger 2024. So thank you very much for listening, and we are now ready to take your questions.
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question, please press star and one at this time. The first question is from Enrico Bartoli, Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my question. The first one is, regarding, a possible outlook for, for next year. I know it's, it's a bit early for a guidance, but just to understand, first of all, some hints about the capacity that you expect it to install next year. You provided in the, in, the slide, that you have, around 150 MW under construction. So where you expect more or less to end up, and, if you expect also some additional M&A to occur in, 2024?
On 2024, if you can update us on the comments that you gave during the past conference call on the edged volumes and prices, and how you expect from a qualitative point of view, the evolution of EBITDA for the next year. The second question is related to the guidance for full year 2023. If I made my calculation well last year, the third, the last quarter was EBITDA was around EUR 100 million, and considering your EBITDA in the nine months this year, the guidance that you provide is significantly higher than that. So I was wondering, considering the current price scenario, what you expect to be the drivers of a strong performance in the Q4?
The last one is, let's say more strategic, particularly on Spain. In the presentation, you have insisted, you highlight that you have 1.3 GW pipeline there. There are some assets starting to create. I'm curious about your, your view on this market, considering that there is a lot of capacity trying to come on stream there, particularly PV, and we are seeing some pressure on prices in some hours. So I was interested in your view on the, the potential for from this market forever. Thank you.
Okay. Good morning, Enrico, to you, and let me go in order of your questions about the outlook for 2024. I can just stress what I already said in the previous webcast and in the current one. So we expect in 2024 to have almost all the investments done over the last 12 months in full operations. So we think we are able to reap the benefits of all the investments done. O n top of that, the hedging you mentioned for 2024 was slightly better than the numbers in 2023. A ll in all, 2024 will enjoy the coming back, say, of the incentive in Italy.
Because according to the mathematical formula, say, and considering the expectation for full price for 2023, the incentive should be go back in the region of EUR 40/ MWh, which based on our numbers means more than EUR 40 million of EBITDA on top of the one of 2023. E ven more in particular, I think the main contribution will come from the larger installed capacity. So it's early, as you said, to give a guidance, but I'm positive and confident that 2024 should see a huge increase in our EBITDA.
As you mentioned, in order to touch the last part of your question, Q4 2023 is seen as a quarter where the earnings direction should change, because over the first nine months of the year, we suffered from the very tough comparison in terms of prices. In Q4, given the larger installed capacity, given the low load factor registered in the Q4 of last year, we expect a reverse in this trend, and this trend should continue over 2024. So I hope, Spain, the last question was about Spain. Yes, you're right.
First of all, let me say that we are happy that our last solar farm, 149 MW, was that the construction was completed, and we are now under the last phase of commissioning, and we expect the asset to be fully up and running by the end of the year. This is a major step, major milestone for us in the development in the country. We have, as everybody, a view that brings a larger discount in terms of capture price compared to the average, the baseline price in Spain, because of the penetration of renewable and particularly of solar. This is already included in our business model.
And, going forward, the CapEx, the investments we are envisaging in the country, as you said correctly, are based on organic growth, because it's sort of co-development. We are moving on, and it's based on few projects, a very large one, sizable projects. F or those kind of projects, we expect, notwithstanding the price scenario, the return to be positive because the capital intensity is going down in the solar, after having reached a peak in 2022, but now is moving down quite significantly. G iven the size, we expect further synergies in terms of efficiency, topics and whatever around the asset. I n particular, we are still positive on the pricing, because based on a PPA, you can reach a significantly higher pricing compared to few years ago.
Putting all these factors together, the return should be higher than our other rate. I f it's not, we will not move forward to the investment because we are not obliged to do it. So that's our philosophy. All the projects should meet our financial discipline, and if they don't, we have to find the mitigants in order to make them. You had recently a quite clear example on that. We had inauguration of Camporeale in Sicily. That was our first repowering project, and I hope whoever of you that came to join the event have appreciated the quality of the asset. L et me remind you that on that asset, we had a CFD awarded in an auction.
The price of that option was not any longer able to yield the right return for the project, and we abandoned the CFD, and we moved to a PPA that's got a value that's more in line with the market trend, and the return was absolutely in line with our return. This is a strategy that we want to pursue whenever we don't have the fair return. That's our philosophy. So I hope to have answered your question.
Yes, and just if you, if you can provide, just a comment on capacity evolution in 2024, in terms of the capacity on the construction, if you expect additional M&A, what kind of development is reasonable?
Okay. A ccording to organic growth, I can say just repeat what is already written in the chart of the webcast. Those are the projects we have now under construction or pre-construction. So anyway it's quite a significant amount, because we are talking about if you sum all the projects we called in 2024, you reach a value of more than 200 MW. O n top of that, and that, I think, was a good question. Yeah, we are pursuing several deals on the M&A field. A s you know, M&A is not completed till you have signed. So we can't give any more indication on that.
Given the financial strength of the company, for sure, M&A will remain a channel of growth for ERG. L et me say that the headwinds, the challenges the sector is facing right now is changing a little bit, the secondary market, and we are even more confident that we can achieve better results from this channel, I mean, the M&A.
Perfect. Thanks a lot.
The next question is from Roberto Letizia, EQUITA. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks a lot for taking my questions. I would like to continue on Enrico's questions about 2024, for what is possible. Just doing some math, if you allow me, just to have a reference on where there is something more or something less, which I miss in the overall picture. S o what you guys just green certificate size, on a EUR 40/ MWh assumption for next year, development, that there is 1 TWh of production expected on green certificates, which is around EUR 40 million. Then, you, you have the additional capacity that should produce roughly 700 GWh of additional production next year, which we can take, of course, whatever number, but this may be potentially additionally EUR 30 million of EBITDA. But just looking at volumes, added to your productions.
Then you have the price effect at the end, because actually, you're doing hedging, I guess, in the region of EUR 15-EUR 20/ MWh above what you did this year. I f I assume only 20% of your production here, that's a number, probably EUR 40 million of EBITDA on the price side, which drives me to a number that is, well, well above EUR 600 million for next year in terms of EBITDA. Where am I wrong? What am I actually missing on the negative side, if I do this math? Then the second question is on this year, whether you can help us on working and figuring out the net income level that is associated to your guidance, because you are continuing to do very well on the interest cost.
So probably also net income is going to benefit. Can you provide any guidance on this element? F inally, wondering if the disposal of the CCGT in your assumption is also producing cash in within the year. Thanks a lot.
Okay. Let me go to your first question. I think, you're very good at math, so your analysis, makes a lot of sense. We have, as you said, we have the incentive, which is worth more or less, EUR 40 million, or a little bit in excess of that. Then we have new productions, of course, based on a P50 estimate for wind, but and the radiation, but let me say, is reasonable and 700 GWh. I'm taking your analysis, but is makes sense. So let me say, is 60-70 million EUR, based on the average price per megawatt-hour. So if you sum just these two items, we are moving up by about 100 million EUR.
Then we have some negative, some positive, but let me say, it's a good analysis. So we could expect an increase of this guidance, and for guidance, I mean, the sum of these two elements that you have mentioned before. According to net profit, I think the company is doing a tremendous job on financial charges, overall, on the net debt, in net debt over the last few years. N ow we are in a nice position to have a pool of liquidity that is invested at 4% or even a little bit more than that. That is compensating for almost the financial charges we are paying on our gross indebtedness.
As you can see, paradoxically, this high interest rate environment is supporting our profit and loss, because basically, we didn't pay very much financial charges, so net profit will enjoy this trend. We are also doing some good job on extending the technical life of our existing assets. Consider that when we are lowering our depreciation, means the existing technical life has been assessed by the external and internal auditors, and the extension is based on our lifetime extension programs. So all in all, you see that the net profit is going very well, and we expect a solid, a very solid number for 2023, in excess of EUR 200 million. That's, I think, the answer to your question.
Yes, and on the CCGT, if your cash in will be within the year?
Must say, the cash in from the CCGT was basically all included at September 30, because all the so-called permitted leakage were paid as a dividend from ERG Power to ERG Group for an amount of roughly EUR 90 million. On top of that, the price paid by the buyer was basically offset by the consolidation of our reported debt. But was, you know, we already deconsolidated the company, so you couldn't... The debt wasn't included in our adjusted net debt. So the answer is all the effects coming from the transaction has already been accounted at September 30, when talking to the adjusted net debt.
Going forward, in the Q4, you won't see any longer a higher debt on a reported basis, because the asset went away from our portfolio.
Many thanks.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Francesco Sala with Banca Akros. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I just wonder whether you can give us some comments on the price trends we saw in Q3, whether there is something outside the general market trends we should keep in mind that is more specific to you, speaking about maybe PPAs. Secondly, there was quite a big release of cash from the net working capital in Q3. I wonder about the moving part of this, let's say, big release we saw in Q3. T hese are basically on the prices and net working capital. A lso there was quite a decreasing cost in Q3 in Italy.
I wonder again whether this is something sustainable, because if I, let's say, run the math, the cost we have seen in the first six months are way higher than the one we saw in Q3, obviously divided by two. So I wonder whether there's something specific, or this is something that there are some efficiencies that will keep on hitting your numbers going forward. Thank you.
I'm trying to answer your three questions. Let me start from cash flow. The cash flow, as I said at the beginning of the year, was already expected to be stronger vis-à-vis the EBITDA, because we had enjoyed, let's say, the reversal of the derivatives, the mark-to-market derivatives. O n top of that, all the items, the cash flow items, coming from the transaction for the CCGT. Those are the two items that further increased our cash flow over the year, and they are almost over now because we recovered all the mark-to-market of derivatives, and the transaction of the sale of CCGT, as said, was basically accounted in, all accounted in our adjusted net debt.
In terms of price trend, you mentioned Italy and U.K. The market remains very volatile. You can see just looking at the TTF price every day, up and down, up and down, because the market is very, let me say, fragile, and because the Russian gas is being substituted basically almost by LNG, which is a little bit more unpredictable. So depending on the weather forecast, depending on whatever, the price is more volatile. O ur view is stronger going forward, and we expect prices to remain higher, much higher than in the past.
I can tell you that, whenever we discuss a PPA, long-term PPA, has also the view of private companies, private off-takers, with prices, let me say, above EUR 100/MWh , or more or less in that region.
Let me add a note regarding U.K., because you see an increase in the price in U.K., because you have to consider that in last quarter or in Q3 of last year, we had just the old PPA in Northern Ireland. That was where PPA is signed several years ago, so in a different market environment. While this year, we are starting selling with the new PPAs signed in Scotland, that has a much higher price. T his is explaining, together with some merchant production, that is an addition, also the production in 2022. This plus explain this increase in our unit revenues. So the trend is strongly in strong increase, thanks to this new PPAs signed and entering commercial operation this year.
If I may, just to add color to what Michele just said, consider that the first PPA we signed in Northern Ireland, the duration of those PPA is, was not longer, so it was five years. W e expect in a few years, to renegotiate, those contracts at a much higher price. Y our last question was about the cost. Let me say, yes, I confirm that we have done a tremendous job also on the cost side, and enlarging the portfolio, we are having, for sure, some, synergies. So whatever you have seen, in the first nine months, yes, we believe is structural, and we believe is sustainable also going forward. W e are not at the end. We are continuing to try to squeeze as much as possible our costs to become even more efficient than today.
Thank you so much.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Nash Cui, with the Barclays, please. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a few follow-up questions, if that's okay. If I go to slide 7 of the presentation, I still want to ask about the U.K. all-in wind price over there, EUR 144/ MWh this quarter. I think, Michele, you explained earlier, it's because of higher PPA price achieved. Should we assume the similar price level will be sustained for the next few quarters or next years? That's my first question. M y second question is still on 2024 EBITDA bridge. I did a similar thing as Roberto, and I also want one more thing, which is normalized wind condition, because I remember we had very low volume in Q2. I just want to understand, do you see improved volume in Q4?
Will you see 2023, in terms of volume, is a normal year, or do you think the volume is slightly below an average year? In that case, will you also see an extra EBITDA for 2024 because of the normalized wind condition? My third question is on solar in Spain. I understand the one-way collar pricing structure benefited you a lot. Are you going to look for similar pricing structure for other assets, especially the new one coming online and the ones in the pipelines? Thank you.
Yeah, regarding U.K., just to add some additional details. In U.K., in particular in Scotland, these figures at EUR 144/MWh is also benefiting from some balancing market services that we are giving to the grid, but as additional remuneration to the Scotland assets in particular. T his is the reason why we have some additional, you know, additional unit revenues in respect to the merchant price and the PPA price. Yes, I think that these balancing market services can be structural, at least for the next few years.
So we expect to, even if they are not fixed at the as a PPA, we expect that we continue to offer these kind of services to the grid, and so we can have this kind of extra remuneration. So this is the answer. Obviously, there is also a part of merchant component, because our PPA in the U.K. are baseload PPA that are not covering 100% of the production. So we maintain some exposure into the merchant price, and these add some additional potential upside to our unit earnings. Your second question about the EBITDA. Yeah, I can just stress what I already said.
Of course, there are few elements, and this, the first two we have already mentioned, the coming back of the Italian Incentives, plus the contribution of the larger installed capacity, but you are right as well. So we expect load factor to normalize in 2024, because it's based on our P50 estimate. L et me also say that Q4 of 2023 is recovering right now. I don't know how it's gonna finish the year, but in the first month and a half, till mid-November, we have been recovering partially the gap we had accumulated from this point of view in the first six months.
But you are right, in 2024, if load factor will normalize, then we'll have also a contribution from the existing assets. Those three elements should make a compelling growth, 2024 versus 2023. The third question was about Spain again. Garnacha solar farm is provided with a PPA, a long-term PPA with Google. T he structure of this PPA is based on a floor, leaving all the upside also to the producers or owner, apart from a commercial discount of a few euros per megawatt hour.
Let me also say honestly that we are still waiting to understand or to gain a better understanding of what's going on from a regulatory point of view, because there are several rumors that in Spain they are thinking of extending global measures and these kind of things. So we still don't know about that, but we expect, we should expect, them not to be extended according to the strong position the European Commission has taken on this item. L et's see, states members have, so sometimes are not respecting these indications, so let's see.
But again, if the market is in line with the forward right now, 2024 should be better than compared to 2023, because 2023 was affected by those revenues cap at a much lower prices compared to forward market. So for the time being, let me say, all the KPIs are showing a recovery for 2024 versus 2023. W e'll be more precise, say, in March, when presenting the full year, the 2023 full year results and the business plan and the guidance for 2024.
Very clear. Thank you, Paolo and Michele.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Giulia Noli at MetLife Investment Management. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Just a very high-level question on the sector, I guess. We've been reading about large renewable players canceling projects, mainly in the offshore space, canceling projects because of cost overruns, delays, issues with the turbine suppliers. I was wondering, to what extent you've been affected on that front, whether there have been any project canceled because of these reasons, and just, I guess, a little bit of commentary on your end.
Okay. We are living in a very particular time, because from one end, governments around the world have set ambitious targets to tackle climate change, which, that's my personal belief, is the greatest challenge of our time. D espite these aggressive targets, the deployments of CapEx and installed capacity, not just across Italy, not just across Europe, but across the world, is lower than needed. In this kind of environment, despite these flamboyant targets, the sector, the direct sector is facing some challenges. In particular, the interest rates and cost, the arising cost of capital, reflecting the higher interest rates, the green inflation, the bottlenecks in the supply chains and whatever. But we remain very positive.
You ask a top-down question, and my top-down view is that we remain very positive, because I don't see any different options but renewable for tackling the climate change. A lso other options, I think, they are facing big challenges, for instance, nuclear. It's fresh news that one small reactor projects in U.S. was canceled because the cost, the higher cost than expected and the higher cost of producing energy. So I think, wind and solar remains very competitive. For sure, as you said, offshore is facing another business environment, and we have been studying the possibility to entering the offshore, in the floating offshore in the Mediterranean, and we came to the conclusion that it's not yet time.
So we stayed out of this business segment for the time being. We do not have any short-term plan to enter. Looking at our investments, the ones we have already approved, I repeat, they are all yielding a return which is consistent with the theoretical cost of capital. Why I'm saying theoretical? Because our policy is to assess all the projects based on another rate that is consistent with current market trends, even though our cost of capital is much less, because we have EUR 2.1 billion of gross debt already negotiated with a cost of 1.4%. But when we are assessing our projects, we consider a WACC and another rate, which is pretty consistent with the current market trends. E ven under this current market trends, all our projects are yielding a higher return. Why?
Maybe because we were good at supplying the wind turbines. You know, that the supply of wind turbines for the projects so far was covered by a supplier framework agreement with some major OEM at a competitive cost. Probably, your question is more about the future. About the future, I repeat, we have several projects fully authorized, but the final investment decision to go on with these investments will be based only on the return at the time of the FID. So if the return is higher than our other rate, we go on. If not, we will be waiting for a different time. That's our philosophy. We are investing capital, private capitals, and we need to have a fair return on our investment. But for the time being, we are confident.
So for instance, just to give you an example, we approved recently in our Board, a small investment. It's a repowering in Germany. For sure, CapEx is a wind project. For sure, the capital intensity is much higher than the one we were used to, but at the same time, the wind farm was awarded with a tariff, which is above CFD, which is above EUR 100/ MWh. So these two effects are resulting in a return which is above our other rate. So I hope to have answered your question. So for the time being, we do not have any issues on our assets, either the one we have, where we have completed the construction or the one which are currently under construction.
Perfect. Very, very helpful. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
The next question is from Davide Candela, Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, gentlemen, and thank you also from my side for the presentation. I just have two, and maybe the first one following on the procurement side. You said, and you mentioned that we saw solar capital intensity lowering. I was wondering if you can share your view on wind as well, apart from the last answer you made. In the sense that we have seen manufacturing wind turbine players suffering the margins. So, I was wondering if you can share your expectation also on the evolution of the wind costs in terms of procurement, and if you can share your view also on the EUR million per megawatt you are expecting or embedding in your assumption.
Maybe related to that, the second question, very high level, related to the European Wind Power Action Plan that was published by you by end of October. I am aware that we are in the very early stage of this kind of action, but also wondering if you can share your view on the potential impact of this kind of regulation or action plan, and which could be the effect on the industry going forward. Thank you.
Okay. Let's say, I think your analysis was right. Wind still facing more hurdles than solar in terms of capital intensity, because the major manufacturers are European. The Western manufacturers are suffering, their P&L are still in red, and they are struggling to recover marginality. I think, and my view is based on the fact that Europe and the world needs both technologies. You can't just survive on solar. Solar is providing energy just eight hours, nine hours per day, while wind is producing also in the night. Y ou need both technologies in the portfolio. Over the last six months, 12 months, we have seen divergent trends in CapEx for the two technologies.
But I think the answer, the regulatory answer to this point, is to have different options. So separated technological separated options for wind and solar. I n many states in Europe, this is the direction it seems it's gonna be pursued, even coming to the wind action plan you mentioned, you're right. That has been issued. There is an action plan. It's an emergency action plan in order to support above all, the OEM and the wind industry in Europe. We are a producer, we are a buyer of technology, so we are enjoying EBITDA, we are enjoying profits, but those companies are struggling, and this plan is thought, has been thought in order to support the industry as a whole. They want to...
The main line of actions of this plan is simplifying the permitting in order to make more visible the growth and then help the OEMs also to program and to plan their production lines. I n this respect, the development of RES should become an overriding public interest, lowering and reducing massively the time of permitting. We are not yet there, but I think 2024 will be the year when we could accelerate. I mean, we as Europe, we can accelerate on this point. The other point, the plan is pushing on, is to set out CFD mechanisms that are providing a fair remuneration. I n fact, in every state where this has already been done, let's take Germany.
I mentioned the example in Germany, you see, a fair and healthy subscription to auctions. Where you didn't do that, like unfortunately in Italy, where the tariffs are still the ones issued in 2019, and now they have just upgraded to take into consideration the normal inflation, but the green inflation has been much higher than that. The auctions keep remaining severely undersubscribed. Those are the 2 moves we expect and we perceive more important. So simplifying the permitting, but above all, to increase the CFD system. For companies like us, we have another option, which are PPA. I n fact, whenever CFD is not sufficiently high to make us meet the returns, we switch to PPA.
But let me say, for the industry as a whole, we would need higher CFD in order to deploy capital and restore capacity in line with national plans.
Thank you. Thank you for the answer. M aybe just a follow-up, if I may, on the second part. So reading through, if we can make an assumption on what you said with regard to the wind action plan, we should expect the procurement cost not vary so much in wind for the ones we are seeing today, in the sense that they should support the wind turbine operators. But on the other hand, the pricing environment and the auction should be much more visible and supportive for the power generators, so as to crystallize the returns the industry is looking for.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I think you're right, and sorry, maybe I didn't answer your question with numbers. You asked me before, we see the cost of wind and, let me say, a ll the projects we have already started up, and we are in the last phase of construction at a cost of EUR 1.2 million-EUR 1.3 million/MW , which is very good pricing for compared to the current environment, because they were covered by this framework agreements in supply chain. Now, looking forward, we expect the intensity, the capital intensity in the wind to be more in the region of EUR 1.5 million-EUR 1.7 million/MW.
But as you said, and I said, the importance is to find the right CFD in order to make all the equation for concurring to the return sustainable. W e think that's the case. That will be the case.
Yeah. If I may add, these figures can vary a lot among different countries in Europe. So you have countries much more expensive than the others. Germany, for example, is if you look at the statistics, some of the more, the most expensive country where build wind farm, but at the same time, it's one of them where the price schemes are more generous. On the other side, there are much more than in the past being the BoP cost more relevant in the overall terms of a project, more relevant. So the local factor affect a lot the overall cost of a project. So if you build a large project, it's more efficient than a small one.
I f the connection is close to the plant, this can increase significantly the efficiency and cost of the project. So again, the execution of each specific project becomes a differentiating factor in this specific moment, because you need an industrial approach also in the construction of new projects, much more than in the past.
Many thanks. Very helpful.
The last question is a follow-up from Roberto Letizia, EQUITA. Please go ahead.
Paolo, quickly, sorry, you almost installed some 400 MW per year in the last year. You got 370, 530, 370 this year, so you're roughly in the 400 MW per year. You're still out with a target of 4.6 GW , [audio distortion] . I was wondering if this rate of growth would be maintained in the next three years, so something in the region of 400-450 MW per year, that including 2024. Can you please confirm this? Thanks a lot.
I say, yes, Roberto, we haven't changed our target. The targets remain the ones of the business plan. We are confident that we are in the, what I would dare to say, slightly ahead of those targets. I repeat, through a combination of organic, M&A, we want to maintain more or less the same pace, even going forward. So the 400 MW was the average increase per year that envisages by our business plan, and we want to going on with this pace. Yes, absolutely. In 2024, we will work for this.
Of course, I couldn't exclude an acceleration or a slowdown, depending on M&A, but I would say we are working for an acceleration, because right now, we still have a balance sheet that significantly underleveraged compared to our financial policy and thresholds set out by the rating agency in order to maintain our BBB- rating, which is a core target for us. So to maintain the investment grade profile.
Thanks a lot.
We have another question from Emanuele Oggioni, Kepler. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you for taking my question as well. I have two left. One is, you see the risk of a further expansion, basically, of global gas price cap, etc., in some markets, such as Spain or Romania, for example, or East Europe, for 2024. What are your expectations on that? And second, if you can update us on the hedging policy, maybe in the, if I remember well, in the last call, you mentioned that for 2024, you already covered 0.5 TWh, and roughly more than EUR 150/MWh, but these volumes could be progressively increased up to 1 TWh. If you update on the figures. Thank you.
It's very difficult to say because I say every state member proved to be a little bit erratic on these points. For instance, in France, there are huge probability, according to our insights, that the price cap should be extended for 2024 at EUR 100/MWh . But according to the draft amendments that are circulating, this should be applied just by 250% of the production. So this price cap, anyway, is expected to improve compared to 2023. Still a question mark, what's going on in Spain, because the government is in formation, and we have to wait, for instance, the name of the Ministry of the Energy Transition, and there are circulating some rumors, but it's too early to say, even though there is a risk.
In Eastern Europe, in some countries, yes, there are risks already factored in our numbers, especially in Poland, let's say, the last government changed the rule of obligation quota for CO2, then made the value of origin certificates to collapse, and is already included in our guidance for 2023, but the new government is more European-oriented, so we should expect in the next few months to change and to improve this law that was issued just a month before the public election in Poland. So it's a very difficult business regulatory picture to make estimates, but we are confident that those measures should progressively phase out completely.
Because, because if not, the energy transition will stop, you know, because the investments are not there as they should be, and it's a kind of make or break it scenario, let me say, like this. So if they want to progress on the installment and deployment of investments, t hey will have to create a better and safer regulatory environment. T hat's my view. That's what, in my opinion, will happen in 2024. We will see a lower and lower extraordinary measure. Sorry, the hedging, the hedging.
Yes, I confirm what we said, what we—you remind, remembered about the last webcast, was confirmed in the sense that right now we have covered roughly 1 TWh for 2024, at a price which is between EUR 130-140 /MWh. This is just the short hedging, I mean, the one we which is covered, say, by financial instruments, but all in all, even including the recent PPA and blah, blah. So we expect a slightly better selling price for 2024 against 2023.
Thank you. Very clear.
You're welcome.
Mr. Merli, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for the closing remarks.
Thank you very much for listening and attention, and speak to you soon in March for the full year results and business plan. Thank you very much again.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.