Good morning. This is the conference call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Fincantieri full year 2021 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there'll be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Bono, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Fincantieri financial results for the full year 2021 conference call. Let me start by saying that I am very proud that even during the year still affected by the pandemic and the increase of raw materials prices, we at Fincantieri achieved excellent results. In such difficult times, we need to react with great determination and overcome challenges that affect the whole sector. In particular, as you know, our clients in the cruise business. Indeed, we managed to preserve our orders and operations while keeping our workforce safe. In 2021, we reached a record high EBITDA at EUR 495 million, with a margin of 7.4%, exceeding the guidance for this year.
In terms of revenue, we grew 28.3% versus last year, improving across all segments if compared to the pre-pandemic levels. Bottom line, in 2021, we recorded an adjusted net profit at EUR 92 million versus the -EUR 42 million recorded last year. The net result at EUR 22 million compared to the -EUR 245 million in 2020. This shows the capacity and determination of this company to react returning to profitability during a long struggle era and proving our strategy second to none ever. Across R&D, we are best in class in execution. We believe that we promised to deliver. We need to preserve our backlog and the production program despite COVID-19. We are seeing the progress of our investment program, creating default production efficiencies and the cost of automation.
Once again, our strategy proved to be successful. Our performance is robust. Our solutions are innovative and tailor-made. Our client base is extremely loyal, and in some sectors we are within such range. Our business is sustainable to create long-term value for our stakeholders. These arrangements are essential to maintain our leadership in the sector and to be competitive in the current global economic scenario. We have a technological platform with a global footprint. We characterize our unique set, our wide competencies, long lasting experience in complex projects, our project management skills and our system integration capabilities to create synergies across the company business, benefit from mutual know-how to seize our opportunities. I am also pleased with our effort in ESG and being internationally recognized, confirming our full commitment to a sustainable business. The foundation for long-term growth are set.
I am personally proud of the commitment and the determination and belonging of our people. Our suppliers and the customers also that all together make Fincantieri an even stronger global leader. We think global, but we act local. Let me turn over to our Fabio Gallia for the business review. Over to you.
Thank you. Thank you, Giuseppe. Good morning to everybody. At page six, you have an executive summary of the main numbers regarding 2021 results. As has been said by our CEO, these are very robust set of numbers in an unprecedented difficult environment, with revenues going above EUR 6.6 billion, with EBITDA growth, which is almost 60%, and reaching almost half a billion EUR, maintaining a very solid and sustainable backlog. Very importantly, notwithstanding what happened to raw materials and other constraints we have to face, we met the guidance given a year ago. I would also mention, beyond the numbers you can find here, that almost 90% of our revenue comes from international clients, while almost 80% of the production is being made locally in Italy.
That really gives you the sense of a global leadership by an Italian manufacturing company. There has been record volumes in production, more than 16 million hours in our yards. That's also thanks to the economies of scale reached, the investment which has been done over the years, and the reaction and the reactivity by our colleagues allowed us to maintain and significantly improve our profitability. That has been done notwithstanding the environment you know well. We've been also able to preserve the backlog while also capturing new orders with different mix, but we go through that before, afterwards.
It's also important to highlight that we've been delivering 19 ships in the last 12 months, and that has been done in 12 different yards from 3 different continents, which tells you about the global reach of Fincantieri. Operating cash flow has been positive and has been supported by our CapEx plan. The investments which will be commented later on will also tell you that we are building and improving our competitive advantage versus our competitors. This is basically the sense of page six. If you go to page seven, is a helicopter view of the major events quarter by quarter. I won't go through any information, but you can see that this company is really large and is engaged in several different businesses, has been delivering in each of these segments.
In the shipbuilding, you can see the very important European project for a European patrol corvette, the order from Indonesia and the Ministry of Defense, and very importantly, U.S. Navy confirmed exercising the second option for the FFG new class frigates. MSC Seashore represent the largest ship ever built in Italy, and the first corvette for the Qatari Ministry of Defense has been delivered, just like the second logistic support ship or LSS for Italian Navy. In the offshore and specialized vessels, no new orders have been, I would say, captured by anybody in the oil and gas. On the other hand, we've been able to transform VARD and make it a leader, a global leader in SOV business, which relates to the maintaining, manufacturing and maintaining offshore wind farms.
In terms of ESG, the other division, ESS, the important landmark project of Port Miami for cruise terminal for MSC. We've also been finalizing IDS acquisition, which is a small but very important company for the technology it embodies. On ESG and partnership, you can find here at page seven what has been already announced. It's also important to note that we're very active in sustainable finance. It has been testified by the first trade finance credit line for the manufacturing of green cable layer and the first sustainability-linked construction loans. Page eight, an update on ESG. As you can see, numbers speak for themselves. On renewable energy, we've more than doubled the percentage of electricity done by renewable sources.
Carbon intensity measures as tons of CO2 over revenues has been slashed by half, while continuing to commit our capital in R&D, an important factor to keep and improve our competitive position. Safety is still at the very heart of what we do, while on the gender distribution on our board, you can see that it's being represented in a very balanced way. We continue also to invest in talent and in people. That has been somehow endorsed by the most important rating agencies and other institutions, which basically awarded us with one of the top ratings, and that is true for CDP or V.E. We also committed, as we promised, to new rating agencies like S&P Global and Sustainalytics.
Being for us a kind of the view the ranking as being really high, and we're very proud for that. Some awards also being saying as far as our attractiveness on the labor market on health and safety, which is really important that it's coming from U.S. Authority. On also sustainability, Green Star awarded us with one of the most important and best-run company with that respect. If we flip to page 10, deliveries and orders, you can see not just the numbers, but it will highlight how diversified our client base and our ability to be competitive in different segments of our sectors by far exceeding results of our competition.
Even when we look at orders, really the mix, as I said before, is being changing because the pandemic really hit the cruise sector. We've been able to compensate with the naval business and with the offshore. In terms of backlog at page 11, you can see that it's well-balanced, diversified. You have 29 vessels in portfolio, in the cruise portfolio, 36 naval and 26 in offshore specialized vessels. These breadth, this diversification, and we'll get to that also soft backlog, allows Fincantieri to count on a long-term visibility on a diversification and even new sources of emerging growth in our business. Now I hand it over to Giuseppe Dado, our CFO.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We move now to page 13, and let's comment a little bit more in depth the financial results. As with the order intake and backlog, we managed to preserve our backlog despite the challenges faced in the last two years by Fincantieri, and most of all by our clients in the cruise sector. In 2021, order intake came in at EUR 3.3 billion with a positive impact from offshore and specialized vessels and ESS business. Withstanding the fact that the cruise sector is still characterized by a standstill, new orders in shipbuilding amount to more than EUR 1.8 billion, and this was mostly thanks to the contribution of the naval business, where our U.S. operations were awarded with the second frigate for the U.S. Navy.
Also in the Equipment, Systems & Services, the order intake almost doubled compared to last year, thanks to the order mentioned before also by Mr. Vago for the cruise terminal in Miami. The total backlog is approximately EUR 35.5 billion, including EUR 9.7 billion of soft backlog, thanks to the recent achievements in the defense business and the agreement, of course, with the Indonesian Navy. This ensures long-term visibility and you know gives us the opportunity to shape a medium-term investment plan to create the production efficiencies that you have seen rippling down to the results of this year. As with revenues on page 14, up 28.3%, so perfectly within the range, the guidance range that we gave at the beginning of the year.
The performance was driven by exceptionally high production volumes. We exceeded the mark of 16 million production hours in our shipyards, and this came despite higher safety protocols in place to manage the COVID-19 outbreak. Revenues were at roughly EUR 6.7 billion, excluding pass-through activities. In the shipbuilding segment, the contribution of the segment was 27.1% in growth, basically offsetting all the revenues that we lost in 2020. The naval business increased by 36.3%, while the cruise business roughly 26%. The cruise revenues still account for 52% of the total revenues, and we recorded a slightly higher weight of the defense business, up to 23% compared to 21% of the previous year.
The offshore and specialized vessels revenues increased by almost 24% compared to 2020, and this shows the recovery of the volumes that we lost in the first part of the year. This result confirms the successful repositioning strategy towards more promising segments like the offshore wind, in which we expect still further growth. On the Equipment, Systems and Services, we grew almost 28%, and this is mainly driven by the operations in support of cruise and naval vessels. As Mr. Gallia mentioned before, 87% of the revenues were generated from international clients with a 79% share of production in Italy. Let's move on to the page 15, where we come to EBITDA.
EUR 495 million, up 55% compared to pre-pandemic levels, compared to 2019, and 57% compared to last year. This came from both higher production volumes, so higher operating leverage and, of course, enhanced margins. This despite the effect of increasing commodity prices that we were able to offset, most notably in the shipbuilding segment. The EBITDA margin improved from 6.1% in FY 2020 to 7.4%, and it is higher than the guidance of around 7% EBITDA that we provided for year-end. This very positive performance is mainly driven by the shipbuilding segment, EUR 194 million with an EBITDA margin of 8.3%.
This came thanks to the higher revenues in the defense business, but mostly came from the very positive performance that we had in the cruise production in the year 2020. Again, despite the very difficult work environment that the pandemic has created. EBITDA in offshore was positive EUR 10 million, and we're starting to reap the benefits of the turnaround strategy implemented back in 2019. This came as the fruit of the repositioning of our in the wind offshore business. The ESS EBITDA was down EUR 25 million, and this is due to lower margin in the infrastructure segment, where as of yet, we were not able to offset the increase in commodity prices in the projects.
What I just commented, it's clearly pictured in page 16, where you can appreciate the very high contribution to the EBITDA improvement by the shipbuilding segment, both for the operating leverage and the higher operating margins. The higher operating margins did not come by chance, of course. This is thanks to the execution of a very robust backlog in terms of marginality, thanks to the benefits that we are reaping from the new investments that we did in the past years, thanks to the changes in the engineering and production process that we implemented in the past year. Thanks to all the things that we talked about in really the past three years.
We move on to page 17 on the net results. We are back to profit at EUR 22 million, thanks to what we described before, and notwithstanding a very high burden in extraordinary items, still very high asbestos litigation-related cost at EUR 55 million. This particular line item, we believe that we saw roughly EUR 50 million also in 2020, and we're starting to see a peak here. We do expect the amount of claims to go down in the next few years, although we still maintain a conservative stance. We also have EUR 30 million of COVID-19 related extraordinary items. Another item we do not expect for year 2022.
On CapEx, EUR 358 million, up 10%, with respect to 2020, at 5.4% of group revenues. Basically, investments, we're still scaling up our productions, our production capacity, notably in the U.S., for the execution of the new frigate class program for the U.S. Navy. We're going to start to cut steel of the first frigate during 2022. So production is going to start this year. This is both to scale up production and to keep compressing lead times and improve efficiency, notably in our main cruise business yards of Marghera and Monfalcone. You see in the results how this investment plan is paying off.
As a matter of fact, EUR 163 million of CapEx came as capacity increase. EUR 92 million were for safety and maintenance, EUR 52 million for efficiency improvements, and EUR 31 million for the IT infrastructure. On page 19, the net working capital and net financial position. We closed with a negative net working capital of EUR 670 million, and this is mainly due to the very potent delivery program that we conducted and did successfully in the year 2021. We lowered also the construction loan level at roughly EUR 1 billion, and net debt was EUR 159 million. In this net debt levels, we are slightly better than the guidance that we gave.
Both the decrease in net working capital and net debt levels, one mirroring the other, is mainly due, again, to the delivery of eight cruise vessels. This delivery program came with one more ship than expected because we were able to deliver one ship in advance before the closing of the year, and originally, this ship was scheduled for delivery in 2022. Of course, net debt levels are still affected by the strategy of deferrals granted to clients, which at the end of 2021 amounted roughly EUR 200 million. Again, regarding our debt structure, we are basically immune from any dramatic shifts in interest rates, and our debt structure does not have any covenants, so it's pretty flexible, let me say.
Now I give the floor back to Mr. Gallia for the outlook for next year, for this year, for 2022, of course.
Thank you, Giuseppe. If you go to page 21, we can have a focus on our core businesses, Cruise and Naval. As you might be aware, basically almost full capacity will be reached this summer season. This information is also public, because most of our clients are listed and have reported a number of useful information open, accessible to everybody. Interestingly, booking trends for 2022, 2023 are back to 2019 levels, with higher prices. Passenger volumes are expected to recover and surpass 2019 level in next year, in 2023. Target of 30 million passengers, which are expected to grow in 2026 to 34 million. I think this is important indicator, clearly confirmed by the evolution of the external environment, because we believe that a resumption in orders will be possible during next year.
Clearly one of the major theme across any industries, including cruise, is reaching net carbon neutrality by 2050. Our association and even operators and owners associations are forecasting a few numbers. 26 LNG-powered cruise ships and almost 180 cruise ships will have, respectively, alternative power, which means a less impactful kind of propulsion and shore side power connectivity. Clearly, that has a prerequisite, the installation and working infrastructures, which means also another major themes which we'll see Fincantieri as group somehow involved with other different businesses. On naval, you know that this conflict has been a game changer for the industry, not just for a few countries. We already made public announcements for the rest. Europe is working on a strategic compass.
We believe that this might also accelerate certain trends and certain dialogues which have been going on in the last few years. I think that there will be changes. I would just mention that assuming that an increasing portion of those investments will go to the sea, that means to the Naval business, we have to also highlight the fact that we are leaders in some of the vessels which are characterized by highest growth rate, like frigates, corvettes and submarines. Therefore, we are exposed with a diversified client base, even geographically, in outperforming sectors. Next page, 22, and this is the last page of this presentation. We elaborate a little bit about the 2022 company outlook.
You all know the current uncertainties, which relate to our health situations and also to geopolitical, with the reverberations on supply chain, raw materials, energy, which are affecting the lives, not just the company, but every fellow citizens. I think there are a few things we might say. That first of all, assuming that there will be no further relevant deterioration in these, 2 major variables, geopolitical and health, we do believe that long-term growth and profitability is ensured by diversified client base, backlog, and positive contribution from all the different business lines. Some revenue growth is expected to increase exceeding 2021 levels. Let me point out the fact that we have a very, very high visibility on what is gonna be the revenue base. As you know, that is basically almost guaranteed by existing orders.
Marginality, which means margins, EBITDA margins, will be maintained, notwithstanding what's going on on commodities and energy. This importantly on the CapEx. Let me just add a few comments on what Giuseppe said before. I mean, investments really drain cash, but the improvement in these results and even in the margins and being allowed also, thanks to the investment cycle which has characterized our life. That means increasing our capacity, production capacity, increasing efficiency, working and installing new technologies, safety, and we're working also for the environment. An investment cycle, which is a heavy one, like the one which is almost behind our shoulders, is something which is about to build and strengthen the competitiveness of Fincantieri in the next five to 10 years.
That has been already true and visible in these numbers, particularly if you compare it with the conditions of our competition. Net debt is expected to stay more or less in line with this 2021, 2020 levels. We believe that there is a well-proven capacity to face an unforeseen event. When looking at the future, I think Fincantieri is exposed to very interesting growth vectors. One is tourism. It can be cyclical or could be impacted by some extraordinary items. Tourism is outperforming GDP growth, and cruise is expected to outperform the trend of the relevant sector. Defense, and we are world leader in sectors which means vessels which are outperforming the growth of the sectors.
Renewables, even assuming that there will be no other investments in oil and gas, we're becoming the world leader also in this renewable sectors. Technology, even which is pervading more and more the life of any citizen and clearly any company. We get some specific technology and competencies and skills, which is I would say the consequence of what we do in our core business. That proves that the strategy is the right one, and we'll be continuing to capitalize on the company core strengths. First of all, our values and our people. The fact we are a global leader in a competitive environment, but Fincantieri managed to strengthen its position as a global leader.
Also, thanks to operations, technology, the international footprint, the diversified client base, and the capacity to integrate and manage difficult, complex projects. Whatever the environment, we strongly believe that Fincantieri can outperform competition and capture opportunities which might turn up after these unexpected events. I would stop here and leave the floor to you for questions.
Excuse me. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove your question, please press star and two. We kindly ask you to use handsets when asking questions. We will pause momentarily for participants to join the queue.
The first question is from Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. I have a few ones. The first one is, can you please give us more highlights on the moving parts in the group's margins in 2022? So I mean, do you expect that the pricing increases might still offset the rise in raw material and energy costs, or the maintenance of the profitability will be possible mainly thanks to a higher contribution from the naval business? And more in general, are there in place some escalation mechanisms at the company level, and how do you manage the purchase of raw materials? I know that there are a lot of questions on this side. I'm sorry, but I have to ask. The second question is on the Equipment, Systems & Services division.
Now it's quite big, EUR 1.4 billion in revenues. Can you give us some any breakdown in the revenues and a flavor on the impact of raw materials in 2022? Thank you very much.
Good morning, Monica. Giuseppe speaking.
Hi, Giuseppe.
On your first question. On 2022, the margin levels, you know, despite we live in a very uncertain moments, will still the drivers to margin will be the same we saw in 2021. Let me list them again. Higher contribution from Naval. Still, this is due to the execution of our order portfolio. We do have 7 deliveries both in 2022 and 2023. Somehow these deliveries are, well, number the same, but the average size of the ships is higher. Therefore, we do expect growth in revenues in the cruise business. These revenues have very good margins because these revenues relate to ships we acquired in the booming years of 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. Okay?
As with the commodity price inflation, the numbers we saw in 2021, and that the numbers that we will see in 2022 factor in commodity prices at current market levels. Okay.
Okay.
We were able to offset price increases. In certain items, these price increases came at 50% from what we had in our projects budgets. Again, we said it several times, the budgets of the projects that we are executing right now were very robust and very conservative. This conservative approach, you see it in the numbers, is paying off. Okay?
Okay.
That is why we stand by the fact that we are not giving, let me say, a clear quantitative guidance. We do expect to continue the growth both in revenues and EBITDA margin levels.
Okay.
On ESS, on Equipment, Systems & Services, yes, it's a very diversified set of businesses. We do want to give more disclosure, but we still think that it's early. Yes, we did experience lower margins, notably in the infrastructure business, because the infrastructure business is a newly acquired business. Because we were not able to offset the commodity price increases, we do expect a recovery in the margins in 2022, though. That's all I can say at this point in time.
Okay. Thank you very much. I come back to, in the queue. Thank you.
The next question is from Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions, and congratulations for the good set of results. The first question I have is on the order intake. The order intake has been coming down for the last couple of years for the reason we all know about. I was wondering how we should think about the order intake going forward. Is 2021 a tough year? Also, you've gone a long way in diversifying the business, and we've seen that the benefit in the ESS. So I was wondering what segment are you most excited about in the short term when we look at potential new opportunities in the order intake?
Defense is likely to be a big element as well, and I was wondering, are you seeing signs that the defense budget could translate into order, higher order intake, for Fincantieri in the short term?
Thank you, Alessandro, for the question. Cruise, we briefly mentioned before, a dialogue with our major clients has always been basically going on, and that has been accelerated over the last few months. Clearly the uncertainties also provoked by Omicron and now by the conflicts clearly is making our clients, I would say, I'm not saying careful, but clearly they're thinking a lot about new investments. We know that order intake will resume. It's more a matter of time. We've been very conservative in our assumption for our projections for 2022 and also for the years to come. I said we are conservative because we don't know when this kind of exceptional environment will end.
We know, as I said before, that we are in a world which in normal conditions will have more and more people traveling. More and more people will choose cruising as a preferred option. That has been clear and evident in the last 15-20 years, and that trend has accelerated. It's also considered now, according to survey, as one of the safest way to spend your time with families. That is accelerating also beyond the traditional cruise markets like U.S., Australia, and Europe. If you look forward, we're also well-positioned should something positive happen also in one of the most populous country in the world. We are positive.
I will also mention that one of the key features in selecting the partners will be the robustness of the company, and we are a solid company, the proposal and the attention to the new propulsion systems which can be available in years to come. Again, being a global leader, maybe I said it another time in the past allows us to be in the condition to receive the first call by any providers where technology is concerned. As a matter of fact, we're working, we're partnering with some of these suppliers in order to be the first one to provide innovative solutions which respect environment and allows our clients to also have this selling proposition. On naval, I have not much to add to what we said before.
You know, what used to be the growth rate expected for the sectors with Asia outperforming Europe, which was expected to outperform U.S. Now there's a game changer, unfortunately, with what happened in Ukraine. You've seen all the declarations by the different statesmen around the world. There will be, we believe, new dynamics. It is important that you are ready for when something will happen. We do believe it will. By providing competitive solutions in terms of performance, well proven experience and track record, new technologies, new way also to help the dialogue with respect to defense.
That we believe it's something, it's a sector in which we are very, very well-positioned, not just in Europe, but more in the world. Not to mention our very strategically important position in U.S. Oil and gas, as you know, basically evaporated in the last years. Part has been able to reinvent itself in building vessels for installation and maintenance and other services in the wind farms. If you look at the growth rate expected for installation of floating, not just floating, but offshore wind farms, it's an important one of the highest and most attractive area to invest in. We're there.
We're there in. I would also mention with a global leadership position in SOV, service operation vessels, and also thanks to a very flexible and competitive industrial footprint, also thanks to our presence in Vietnam, where they have skills and a competitive cost to build these vessels. We're also exposed to aquaculture, to trawlers, and that is what we see. We might expect that something also change on the energy side. When we look at those trends, there will be changes for sure, we are in the position to deliver a number of products and services. With, I would say, global references, we believe that we are well-positioned to capture also some. Think about power electronics, think about hydrogen's technology and other business.
Before I've been elaborating a little bit further, but we believe that this year will still be a kind of transitional period. It's hard to make prediction when these things, the situation will end how, when and how, but we do strongly believe, as we said before, that, as our CEO said, whatever the environment, we will be able to outperform competition and do our best for our stakeholders.
Okay, thank you. Overall, still a transition year potentially with a stronger pickup, let's say from 2023, I would say, in terms of order intake. That would be my take.
Alessandro-
Okay.
If I may add a few numbers. According to the Cruise Lines International Association, when plotting, you know, the long-term growth in the cruise business, there's going to be a capacity demand capacity gap, a demand offer gap by 2026. That is comparing the number of passengers with the number of lower berths available in the market. Consider that Carnival has scrapped roughly 22 vessels from their fleet in the past two years, profiting, let me say, taking the chance from the pandemic. As the CEO of Carnival declared, they're gonna have a 10% more efficient fleet. They're gonna have a more environmentally friendly and efficient fleet.
also, you know, the secular growth of the passengers, as we said before, seems intact. According to the projections, there's going to be a demand supply gap by 2026. That brings us to think that maybe from 2023, there's going to be a resumption of order. Right now, though, it's prudent to take a very conservative stance here.
Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you. Also had a second question, sorry, on the net debt. I was wondering if you can give us a bit more color on the profile of the net debt throughout the year. But also, any guidance on construction loans at year-end, and also what sort of CapEx you are assuming for 2022. We know that CapEx has gone up because of capacity increase, as you mentioned, and efficiency programs. I was wondering whether that is normalizing or if in 2022 it's gonna be another, still another year of a heavy CapEx for the group.
On net debt, as I said before, we still expect, we still have some growth to perform in cruise. In 2022, our revenues will be higher than the cash receipts. And that means we'll have an increase also in work in progress, which will not be billed. And therefore, we do expect. That is why we're giving a guidance that we do expect net debt levels, including cryptocurrencies, again, as usual, prudent, as we are, not factoring in any advances coming in from the effectiveness of major defense contracts.
Like Indonesia, for example.
Like Indonesia, for example.
Okay.
On CapEx, we still have to complete our production capacity increase in the United States, and we have the tails of the investment program in Italy. Therefore, CapEx levels will be roughly similar to the levels that we had in 2021.
Okay.
All right?
That is very helpful. Thank you very much. I'll turn it back.
Thank you.
Excuse me, sir. The next question is from Matteo Bonizzoni of Kepler. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning. I have just a follow-up question as regards the Indonesian contract. You announced the contract almost one year ago, in the sense that around 9 months ago. Where are we in terms of definition of this contract? What are potential hurdles, or in any case, what is needed to have the closing of this contract? Is it reasonable to think you did not specify also the contract value. Can you just confirm that the contract could be worth slightly more than EUR 4 billion with an advance payment in the region of 10%?
We confirm the indications of the numbers that we gave. The teams of Fincantieri in the Indonesian Navy are working on the finalization of the contract. We do expect the contract to become effective by year-end, by the end of 2022, although, again, we're not factoring in any advances coming in.
Okay, thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Emanuele Gallazzi of Equita. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everybody. I just have one follow-up on the naval segment. Can you just share your view on the role of Fincantieri in the potential consolidation of the naval segment in Europe? Can you provide any, let's say, comment on OTO Melara and the submarine business of Thyssenkrupp? I think it will be very useful. Thank you.
Yes, yes. Thanks for the question. This is Fabio. Everything is suspended in the current environment after what happened. As we said before, we clearly are focused on our delivery, clearly keeping our eyes open, but everything is suspended, not just in Italy, I'm saying throughout Europe.
Okay. About the role of Fincantieri in the consolidation of the European naval segment, just to have your view?
It is exactly what I said in the sense that we always keep our eyes open, but currently there's nothing going on. We do believe that, as we said before, what's going on now is a game changer for the industry, focusing on what we do, clearly, again analyzing potential options. It's really important that whatever the environment, whatever the future can present to us, we get there in a solid, robust, competitive positions. This is our priority.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Welcome.
The next question is from Gabriele Gambarova of Banca Akros. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on CapEx beyond 2022. I understood that your investment on the U.S. yard should be over by this year. I was wondering in a longer perspective a normalized level of CapEx what could be?
Well, of course, the levels that we've seen in the past years are not normalized levels. We believe that the peak in CapEx is 2021-2022. After that, we will slowly pace down to levels more similar to the levels of amortization and depreciation. Of course, it's pretty early to speak about 2023 at this point in time, as we are not giving a long-term guidance.
Okay, very clear. Thank you. Another housekeeping question on tax rate. I saw that it was pretty high, beyond 40%. Same question here, what could be, let's say, a normal level of taxation going on?
30%.
Sorry, I didn't get. Sorry.
30%.
Okay.
Zero.
Last question for me. I saw there is this PPX program for the Italian Navy, two very big, let's say units that are being discussed by politics. I was wondering if you have any, let's say, any idea what could be the timing for this important EUR 2.7 billion program, the timing of the award? I mean, do you see it coming next year or... I mean, any explanation would be-
No, Gabriele, not in 2022, at least in our numbers. Then we will see.
Okay. That's all for me. Thanks.
Thank you.
The next question is from Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo. A follow-up. Please go ahead, madam.
Yes, thank you. Just a follow-up on the big picture. Given that a cruise business is expected to resume, and given that naval is obviously a game changer, in your view, and in a big picture, in a time frame of 3-4 years, how do you see the proportion between cruise and naval in the shipbuilding division? Now, naval accounts 23%. Good. How do you expect this weight can increase and to which level? Thank you very much.
That is a crystal ball question because the events we are facing right now may change, you know, the footprint of two industries, of course, cruise and defense. Leaving aside any forecast on the resumption of orders in cruise, I think that the share of the naval business is prone to grow organically considering the backlog that we have right now. We still have to see what will come in the future. I cannot give you a precise estimate at this point in time, but it is what it is right now.
Okay. It's too early to predict a normalized level. Okay. Thank you very much.
It should be within the shipbuilding segment between 30% and 40% naval and the rest the shipbuilding.
30%.
This is very long-term.
Okay. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.