Geox S.p.A. (BIT:GEO)
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May 6, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

May 12, 2022

Enrico Moretti Polegato
Deputy Chairman and Executive Director, Geox

Good evening, everybody, or good morning, depending on time. First quarter 2022 results show a major improvement over last year's first quarter, with double-digit growth across all distribution channels. Growth in the second quarter is accelerating and consolidating this positive evidence. Revenues at the end of April are up 32%, and sales from our physical stores have essentially doubled from last year, with countries already above pre-pandemic levels. Good news is also coming from the multi-brand channel. Order intake for the spring/summer season showed double-digit growth orders that for the fall/winter season reported +26% returning to 2019 levels. Also, in financial terms, we are seeing a progressive and continuous improvement in both the financial position and working capital.

These are the first important feedback from the initiatives undertaken with a new strategic plan aimed at making our business model increasingly efficient, flexible, and in line with market trends. However, the scenario remains particularly complex due to the conflict in Ukraine, the pandemic evolution in China, and the difficult situation in the supply chain. Nevertheless, our sales performance leads us to believe that we are on the right path. The brand is becoming increasingly relevant to consumers again, and our investments in research, product, and marketing are yielding very positive returns. In 2022, we'll see a significant revenue growth in line with the plan and despite the complexities described above. We are extremely confident that once we get through this extraordinary situation, the fruits of our job will be even more tangible.

Now, before handing over to Livio, let me underline the outstanding performance of our CEO and of all of our management in such a difficult environment. Now, let me just stress the confidence that the board has in the capability of our CEO and our management to deliver the results we promised. Now, let me hand over to Livio, and let me thank you.

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Grazie, Enrico. Hi, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Q1 2022 net sales, net financial position, current trading, and some plans for full year 2022. Let's start with slide number three with the executive summary. First quarter net sales are at EUR 184 million, up 24%, driven by an easy comparison base, but also by our investment in products and brand revamping. Net working capital is under control at EUR 104 million, well below Q1 2021 that was at EUR 183 million. Consequently, the adjusted net financial position before IFRS 16 lease liabilities was -EUR 58 million. In December last year, it was at -EUR 64 million, and in a while, we will comment on the split between bank debt and the positive fair value hedge, the positive fair value of our derivatives.

Current trading is encouraging. Like-for-like year to date week 18 is up 60% on 2021 and just slightly below 2019, just minus 3%, with a relevant improvement in markdown. Q2 from April 5th to date is up 76% versus Q2 2021 and +3% on Q2 2019. We're experiencing really a good start of spring/summer 2022 products. In April, we've been able to recover the shift in deliveries in the wholesale channel due to the delays in receiving goods that we experienced in March. Our total sales at the end of April jumped at +32%. On the other side, pressure on margins continues to be strong due to international geopolitical situation, to the cost inflation, and to the COVID-19 impact on the supply chain.

However, our strict approach in reducing discounts and expenses has been able, in the first quarter, to absorb this impact for the time being. In order to better understand the drivers behind this positive performance, please go to page four. During the last 36 months, we closed approximately 240 stores or 25% of the network. Today, the network is composed of 750 stores, out of which 340 DOS. This optimization will be almost completed within year-end with additional 30 DOS net closure. Please go to chart number five to elaborate a little bit on the easy comparison based on actual like-for-like. Dark blue boxes contain the average percentage of closure for lockdown by quarter experienced in 2020 and 2021.

Q1 and Q2 this year are expected to be fully open, while last year the network was closed on average, respectively 34% and 20% in Q2. However, you can see that like-for-like by quarter is very solid with a +54% in Q1. And Q2 to date, week 18, is delivering, as said, a +76% percent. This means that all the retail KPIs are improving substantially, recovering the gap on traffic. I mean conversion rate, average selling price, and unit per ticket, joint with the material reduction in discount. Please go to page six to better appreciate the positive performance of retail KPIs. The blue line represent like-for-like versus 2019, and the gray line traffic versus 2019. You see that like-for-like is strictly correlated to traffic.

However, notwithstanding still a -35% in terms of traffic, comparable store sales year to date, week 18, are just 3% below 2019. From April, the performance is +3% on 2019. As a matter of fact, the stores have been now fully filled with merchandise regarding spring/summer and the marketing investment we did is driving this positive performance. After this deep dive on the drivers, please go to page seven to comment Q1 top line split in brick and mortar and digital. The growth of 24% is driven by brick and mortar, while digital, including e-tailers, is up just low single digit. This is absolutely aligned with market trends in this quarter and reflect the stabilization of volumes after two years of overperformance due to the severe lockdown in brick and mortar.

Please remember that year to date, brick-and-mortar performance, like-for-like, is 99% positive for regular and 87% positive for outlet. At page eight, there are two charts to better understand direct online trends. In the first chart, you can see the gross merchandise value, I mean delivery gross of returns year to date until May 10. It is EUR 24 million and 2022 trend is similar to 2021, so at the same level, except in January, where we suffered a really soft discount policy that we decided to implement at the beginning of the sales period, and from mid-March to mid-April, due to the delays in receiving goods, especially kids products.

In the second chart, however, you can appreciate that in any case, direct digital sales are completely at a different level in comparison with 2019, more than double, EUR 24 million versus EUR 11 million. Please go to page nine to comment top line split by channel. As said, top line grew 24% and all channels are positive. This performance is due to a positive wholesale that is up 11%, however, below the 25% growth recorded by the initial order backlog, and this is due to some delays in deliveries. In April, as said, we have been able to recover this shift, and now wholesale sales is up 15% versus last year. Also, franchising channel is really positive. The growth is 49%, driven by the reopening process after the severe lockdown in Q1 2021.

The U.S. channel delivers a strong positive growth, 44%, as a combination of a sound brick-and-mortar trend, partially offset by a negative perimeter effect, and also the high single-digit negative online performance already commented. On page 10, there is a very quick overview of net sales by region. All regions are positive. Italy is really doing well. It is up 62%, supported by a strong like-for-like in retail, U.S. up 100%, franchising 86%, and wholesale 26%. In Italy, we are really the leader in the market in our premium segment. Europe grew 21% based on the same drivers, like-for-like, the U.S. up 39%, franchising 67%.

In Europe, wholesale is up 13%, with German-speaking countries running a little bit slower in comparison with the other because they have been still more impacted by traffic due to a worse pandemic situation. North America is up 10%. In North America, the supply chain constraints and the port congestion had a higher impact on late receivings. Today, the situation is more or less solved. The rest of the world is positive 5%. As a combination of two performances different by geography. Asia Pacific is down 12%, and this is due to the business restructure in Japan, where we liquidated the subsidiary, moving the business to a new distributors. The worsening situation in Shanghai greater area. However, China, at the end of March, is still positive 8%.

Eastern Europe countries continue to be positive since the outbreak of the crisis occurred late in February, and the majority of the wholesale business had been delivered. On page 11, the details of the net sales by product. Just to say that ready-to-wear is experiencing a good season, both in terms of sell-in and sell-out. For sure, spring/summer for our ready-to-wear business is less important than fall/winter. However, it's important for us to see that apparel is growing 66%, while footwear 20%. Please go to chart 12 to comment working capital and net financial evolution, position evolution. Net operating working capital landed at EUR 104 million, really low, mainly thanks to good performance in inventories, down EUR 35 million, and credit management with receivables down EUR 17 million.

Also, payables are generating cash given the fact that they are related to fresh inventory with payments still not due. Net working capital on last twelve months is 16%, and this is the lowest level since ever. It reflects the fact that we have been able to get rid of aged inventory, and now we must buy more products in order to fuel sales according to our plan in 2022. We confirm that a normal incidence on sales should be in the region of 20%-22%, hopefully in the lowest part of the bracket. This good performance in working capital absorbed any seasonality, so bank debt at the end of March is EUR 85 million, roughly in line with December 2021.

The fair market value of our hedging instruments is positive, amounting to EUR 27 million, and consequently adjusted net financial position before lease liabilities was additionally down at EUR 58 million versus EUR 110 million in March last year. Please go now to page 13 for the outlook. Provided that the recent evolution of the international turmoil and the pandemic are increasing in volatility and uncertainty, we have to consider the summary of our positive current drivers in our business. As said, like-for-like year to date is up 60% with a relevant improvement in markdown, 500 basis points versus 2021 and 400 basis points versus 2019. Q2 to date is +3% versus Q2 2019. Total sales at the end of April are +32% year-over-year.

In wholesale, we assume a yearly growth of 15%, driving this channel really close to full year 2019 level. This is based on the strong initial order backlog both for spring/summer 2022 and fall/winter 2022 and assuming to be able to confirm the same level of reorders as in 2021. On the other side, supply chain issues, port congestion, increased lead time and a greater recourse to air freight are impacting our industry. The overall impact of this factor can be estimated for Geox in H1 2022 at approximately EUR 16 million of lower revenues and EUR 16 million in terms of lower gross margin, EUR 8 million linked to lower revenues and EUR 8 million linked to the increase in air freight to protect wholesale deliveries.

However, on the basis of this assumption, we maintain we are confident that the guideline in terms of top line with a double-digit growth in our revenues will be delivered and we assume to overcome EUR 700 million. This figure would remain achievable, albeit becoming challenging even in the event that a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine crisis is not found soon, with a possible consequent strong impact on business in those areas in the second half. In terms of gross margin, the persistence of the above mentioned material issues in the supply chain impose a greater prudence regarding its annual evolution. However, we will take all the action available in the remaining part of the year, both in terms of commercial development and cost reduction in order to mitigate these expected negative impacts.

We are now ready to open the Q&A section and take your question.

Operator

Excuse me, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask you to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from Oriana Cardani of Intesa Sanpaolo.

Oriana Cardani
Equity Research Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the supply chain. You hired a new management to reconsider the supply chain configuration at the end of last year. Can you give us some highlight on what could change and what are your open options and the timing for the first steps? The second question is on Forex effect. So what kind of impact does it have on the current profitability? Thank you.

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Thank you for your questions. Supply chain. As a matter of fact, our industry must now focus on the first mile, I mean, production and how to move products manufactured in Far East to the distribution centers all over the world. For sure, we are also planning a sort of nearshoring production in North Africa, in Portugal and in Spain. As part of our strategy, the non-sneaker segment and especially the women products, are some of the drivers of the future growth. This nearshoring will allow non-sneaker to grow. This is a market rule, so also Geox will benefit from this shorter lead time compared to sneaker.

As far as sneakers are concerned, there are no material alternatives to produce in Far East countries, so it is necessary really to strengthen relationship with our long-term suppliers. It is necessary to diversify the production footprint in order not to depend and to rely just in one country for a specific product, but we should be able to move eventually the production. This is a project to inject flexibility in the supply chain that we are implementing. Thanks also to the investment in people that we are doing in the supply chain. For the time being, as said, delays on deliveries cost to the group just EUR 8 million. It is not a low amount.

However, it means that we have been able to manage the delays, especially due to COVID lockdown in the second half last year. As a matter of fact, today, the only country under a strict lockdown is China. For us, China is not so important in terms of production, so maybe we will see, in any case, an extension in lead time regarding transportation because Port of Shanghai is really important for all the Far East roads. What about U.S. dollar? Let's say we are in the safe part of the market. We did really a good hedging activity. 2022 and 2023, I would assume to not to have any impact from US dollar.

We bought time in order to react with the supply chain in case U.S. dollar will remain so strong. You will see. Today, to give you an example, the fair value of our hedging is EUR 50 million compared to the EUR 27 million we are disclosing regarding March. It means that until December 2023, we have the U.S. dollar exchange rate at the business plan levels.

Oriana Cardani
Equity Research Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your touchtone telephone. Once again, for any questions, please press star and one on your telephone. We are about to close the Q&A session, so if you'd like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no questions registered at this time.

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Okay. Thank you very much for your time. I think that also the other peers are giving a sort of common view regarding 2022. Our industry will experience a rebound in sales. This year, sales is not the issue. Companies in our industry must pay the most of their attention to cost of goods sold and the reduction in all the other expenses to mitigate. Eventually, they impact in the second half in case this pressure on supply chain will last in the second half. Thank you very much for your time. In case there is no other question, keep in touch. See you in July for the first half.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over and you may disconnect your telephones.

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