Geox S.p.A. (BIT:GEO)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Nov 11, 2021

Mario Moretti Polegato
Chairman, Geox

Welcome everybody. The nine months results highlight an important improvement compared to last year in a scenario still complex and always impacted by the pandemic. This situation impacted both the production side with a temporary closure of some factories in Vietnam and China and the commercial side with the closure of stores in Russia. Despite this scenario, revenues increased in the nine months. The marginality of stores continues to be in strong progress. Cash and the main equity and financial indicators are under control. These are the first important results of the initiatives undertaken since the beginning of 2020. In these months, we have carried out a deep reorganization of numerous markets to make our business model even more efficient, digital, and in line with market trends. We have dismissed non-profitable and non-strategic activities in order to free additional resources to invest in higher value assets.

In nine months, the market channels on which we mainly focus our attention continued to grow in a significant way. Russia reported revenues up by 44% of 2020 and 11% on 2019. Digital channels now represent a third of the group revenues, have shown +30% growth in both 2020 and 2019. The start of the fourth quarter is showing a further improvement in performance. Today, the RSA in our stores are going back 50% on the fourth quarter 2020 and by about 3% on the fourth quarter 2019. The scenario remains very complex, but we are convinced that our efforts and our work are going in the right direction. On the second day of December, we present to the financial community a new industrial plan aimed at increasing the relevance of our values, of our brand and an approach focused on customer centrality and distribution. Thank you everybody. I hand over to our CEO, Mr. Livio Libralesso.

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Thank you. Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today to discuss nine months 2021 net sales, net financial position, current trading and some trends for full year 2021. Let's start with slide number 2 with the highlights. Net sales at EUR 463.63 million, up 7.8%, driven by the wholesale growth by the e-commerce solid performance and also by the U.S. comparable store sales up 12%. Q3 net sales are close to EUR 200 million +7.1%. In this quarter the U.S. like-for-like has been +7.2% on Q3 2020 and -3.7% on Q3 2019.

Net working capital is under control at EUR 157 million, well below both nine months 2020 that was at EUR 250 million, and nine months 2019 at EUR 243 million. Net financial debt adjusted before lease liabilities at the end of September was EUR 95 million. In December last year it was in the region of EUR 100 million. Current trading is positive. Since the first of July, the store network has been fully open, excluding just last week in Russia, where we experienced a new lockdown in Moscow and St. Petersburg with 29 U.S. closed for just last week. Today, the entire network is again fully operative. Comparable store sale year to date, week 44, are improving at 17%, thanks to a good start of Q4 that is up 50% on 2020 and 3% on Q4 2019, with a relevant decrease in markdown.

Please go to page 3 for a quick overview on the restructuring plan. As already commented and disclosed in July, I said mission accomplished and in nine months we completed all the operation, the overall organization. In this chart, there are the details of the action taken. Now, I want just to comment the last one. In July, we announced the closure of the Serbian plant. In October, the group sold all the machineries and equipment. Yesterday, the Serbian company finalized the disposal of the premises, receiving the proceeds. As said, the group did not include any material restructuring costs, so for this tough and fast reorganization. Starting from next December with the Investor Day and the business plan, I hope we will only speak about the future strategy and the future of business.

Please go to chart number 4 for numbers regarding the store network. Here there is a summary of the ongoing portfolio network optimization. The number of mono-brand stores at the end of September is 783, compared with 891 in September last year. We did 108 net closure in the last 12 months with a net impact on sales in the region of EUR 15 million versus September 2020. The plan is to have in Q4 additional nine net closures for DOS that will be exactly balanced by nine net openings done by franchisees and distributors.

Please go to chart number 5. In my opinion, this is an interesting chart. Here you can easily find all the details regarding like-for-like by quarter, split by brick-and-mortar and web. However, I would like to elaborate a little bit on the comparison base. The dark blue boxes contain the average percentage of closures for lockdown by quarter, experienced last year and this year in order to better understand the impact of an easy comparison base on actual like-for-like. In these nine months, the U.S. network has been closed on average 19% versus 23% in nine months 2020. Like-for-like has been positive +12%.

You can see that third quarter this year is fully comparable, 100% open versus last year, and the like-for-like is +7%. So more or less, this is the magnitude of the improvement we are having in the KPI compared to last year. It is important to underline that Q4 this year and Q1 and Q2 next year are expected to deliver an extremely positive like-for-like also thanks to this really easy comparison base. I mean, the comparison base between a fully open network that we assume to have in the next, in this quarter and the next two quarters versus a partially closed network by quarter of last year of 23%, 34%, and 20% respectively. In fact, Q4 year-to-date is up 50% on 2020. More important, it is delivering also an encouraging +3% positive like-for-like on Q4 2019 to date. It means that our retail KPIs are able to recover, in any case, a lack of traffic in the region of 20% that we are still experiencing in the network.

Please go to page 6 to comment nine months top line by channel. As said, top line grew 7.8%, and all channel are positive. This performance is driven by a strong wholesale that is up 13%. This positive result is explained by the fact that the weak spring/summer 2021 initial order intake has been more than compensated by a positive initial order backlogs in fall/winter 2021 season and by some positive key driver in the in-season management. I mean, a good trend in the orders, both in spring/summer 2021 and fall/winter 2021, due also to a certain shortage of products in the market regarding competitors. An increase in sales of aged inventories according to the cash generation targets, and also material reduction in the commercial condition.

Also, franchising channel is positive. The growth is 5.5% due to a positive like-for-like and to a favorable timing effect on the different season deliveries that have more than compensated the decrease in the perimeter, -EUR 5 million or -15%. The U.S. channel delivers a slightly positive growth, +1.4%, as a combination of a strong web like-for-like, +25%, a good brick-and-mortar like-for-like, +8.8%, that have been able to compensate the negative perimeter effect, EUR 10 million or -7%. This is exactly in line with our strategy to close non-relevant marginal locations, brick-and-mortar locations, in order to move to digital new stores, both with direct sales and alliances in marketplaces with our digital key account.

On page 7, there is a very quick overview to net sales by region. All the regions are positive. Italy positive trend is supported by a really strong wholesale, +24%. In Europe, wholesale grew 10% on average, while franchising in the U.S. suffered a more severe lockdown versus nine months 2020, especially in Germany, Austria, U.K., and the Netherlands. North America is finally up 4.2%, thanks to a good Q3 up 28%. After the heavy reorganization implemented with the closure of 10 in the U.S. and Canada and the exit from brick-and-mortar retail in the U.S., the group is now focusing the business on online and on wholesale key account partnerships, both brick-and-mortar and digital.

The rest of the world is positive double-digit, 16%. As a combination of two performances or two opposite performances different by geography. Asia Pacific is down 6.8% due to exceptional events. I mean, the liquidation of the Japanese subsidiary, moving the business to new distributors that will be at full speed in 2022, and the closure of the contract with the wholesale mainland China distributors. However, like-for-like in China is positive 19% in our network. The new strategy to have different distributors by provinces is gaining traction under the drive of the new general manager. On the other side, on the positive side, Eastern Europe continues to outperform, delivering a +23%, driven by Russia up 44% on 2020 and up 11% on 2019. Like-for-like in Russia has been +56% on 2020 and 20% on 2019. Russia is actually close to 10% of the entire business of the group.

On page 8, net sales by product. Sorry for the voice. Just to say that ready-to-wear has been more impacted by the pandemic with ready-to-wear specialists really prudent in buying new products. On the other side, the performances of footwear has been fostered by Spherica performances, by Nintendo Super Mario, by a really strong back-to-school, and by Nebula. These products have been really well supported by the advertising campaign launch in spring, in summer, and in fall.

Please go to chart number 9 to comment direct online evolution of top line. Online sales are up 25% on nine-month 2020, and 75% on nine-month 2019, with a really stricter full price approach, close to 500 basis points versus nine-month 2019. Please go to chart number 10 to comment working capital and net financial position evolution. Net operating working capital landed at EUR 157 million, the lowest in recent years. Mainly thanks to a good performance in inventories down EUR 30 million, and also to credit management with the receivables down EUR 30 million as well.

Inventories are under control, thanks to the action taken on a careful buying for full winter 2020 and spring summer 2021, with a reduction of EUR 100 million in new purchases compared with the previous corresponding season. In addition, the progressive reopenings of the U.S. and outlet delivered in Q2 and Q3 a cash generation, so that the debt decreased from the seasonal peak in April at EUR 125 million to EUR 108 million at the end of this September. In addition, the fair value of our hedging instrument is positive, EUR 13.5 million. Consequently, net financial position before lease liabilities, but including the positive value of hedging, was additionally down at EUR 95 million.

Please go now to page 15 for the outlook. The recent evolution of the pandemic is increasing again volatility and uncertainty. In particular, the resurgence of infection in Far East countries led to factories lockdown in some Asian areas still characterized by a low incidence of vaccinated population. I mean, especially Vietnam, where the group produce about 15% of its collection, as well as other short production stoppages in some areas of China. These combined with the general complexities of port congestion and container shortages has actually resulted in three factors impacting the business. First, a temporary shortage of some product line for replenishments in the direct distributor network and also franchising, penalizing especially with the delays the last two weeks of September, and we have been able to recover these sales in the first weeks of October in any case.

A cancellation or revision of the commercial condition of some orders in the multi-brand channel due to the delays in deliveries or production constraints, and a greater recourse compared to forecast to air transport in order to comply with the delivery time requested. To quantify the overall impact of this factor in the second half and so on the entire financial year, we can say that approximately we deal with EUR 14.4 million of lower revenues and EUR 14 million in terms of a lower gross margin. EUR 7 million linked to the lower revenues and EUR 7 million linked to the increase in air transport costs. However, we maintain the guidance.

I mean, considering the positive start in Q4 2021 for the U.S., where like-for-like is up 50%, a little bit better than the expectation and on 2020 and 3% on 2019, confirming also a relevant improvement in markdown, 800 basis points versus 2020 and 360 basis points versus 2019. Assuming to maintain this good double-digit trend in reorders in the wholesale channel also for the remaining one month and a half, and assuming that though no additional lockdown will occur within year-end. We confirm the previous guidance of full year 2021 sales expected above EUR 600 million with a low double-digit growth versus last year. Full year 2021 gross margin up 300 basis points versus last year in the low range of the previous guidance. That was 350 basis points of improvement. We are now ready to open the Q&A section and take your questions.

Operator

Excuse me. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. That's star and one. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The first question is from Oriana Cardani with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.

Oriana Cardani
Research Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Yes, thank you. Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on logistics program. Are you seeing any sort of ongoing pressure in terms of overall supply chain that could impact your product availability or your profitability also in the first quarter of next year? The second question is on pricing power. As inflationary pressures are getting bigger also for next year, do you think you could pass them to your clients with repricing in 2022? Thank you.

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Thank you for these two questions. For sure, let's say that things are improving. Once Vietnam exit from the lockdown, we took the decision to cancel some production orders in order to, let's say, free up production capacity to match spring/summer 2022 production. Otherwise, we would have also delays regarding the spring/summer 2022. Today, the entire production footprint is open, maybe not at full speed. For the time being, we are not, let's say, forecasting another disruption in the production capacity. For sure, we are really monitoring day by day the situation in order to take any mitigation action in case they will be required.

For sure, logistics is still a little bit impacted in terms of time and lead time in order to get the products by sea from Asia to Europe and even more to North America. In my opinion, we can quantify this delay in the region of 10-15 days. There is a strong pressure on companies in order to anticipate initial order campaign and also in the, let's say, forecast capabilities to address in advance the assessment and the allocation of the orders to the different production sites. For sure, at least the transportation costs will impact also Q1 2022.

We hope that given the fact that for us, Vietnam was just 15 and not 50 like many competitors, especially in the sports goods, in the sporting industry, that are releasing really a tough press release in the, in this, in this week, in these days. To say, we hope to have been able to manage at least the quantities. We are working on the respecting the due dates regarding spring/summer 2022 receivings and deliveries. The real issue is what about the prices, and if the company is able to pass 100% of this increase, that putting together raw materials and the transportation, we may think to 5%-10%, it depends from the country to prices.

For sure, luxury is increasing prices with no problem because to increase prices is even more a sort of exclusivity focus. For brand like ours, the pricing power is lower for sure. When we talk about prices, we are really evaluating this. For sure, we are continuing the action undertaking in order to reduce costs and to be more efficient. However, for future collection, I mean spring/summer 2022 and also for winter 2022, we also proceed with a reasonable and, I would say, weighted price increase. To give an example, on spring/summer 2022, we increased wholesale price list in the region of 5% on adult and less on kid because kid is really growing. It is clear that this may have a first impact on the expected gross margin.

We are working in order to recover the additional gross margin, reducing commercial condition and the discounts of the network. I maintain the, let's say, our target to be able to increase the gross margin compared to 2021 in 2022. For winter 2022. Why have we been a little bit prudent? Because for us it is mandatory to recover top line. This, let's say 5% on adults paid a lot because the initial order collection of spring/summer 2022 has been +25%, so double-digit. Okay, we have seen that our pricing power and the fact that now Geox is quite strong in the market, in the wholesale because we invested a lot with several advertising campaign.

We have seen the EUR 700 million that is- to overcome the EUR 700 million of 2022, that is our target, is feasible. Now in full winter 2022, we will increase prices in the region of 8%-10%, again, with the focus to be able to increase the gross margin and eventually still an additional reduction in discounts and commercial condition for wholesale. A couple of months ago, I would have said there is no problem to increase the gross margin in 2022. Today, after what we have seen in terms of raw materials and transportation increase of expenses, I can say we are working in order to deliver an increase in gross margin also in 2022. Coupled with the strong increase in the top line because our goal is to overcome EUR 700 million.

I strongly believe that this is absolutely feasible according to our first, let's say, insight regarding next year, and especially considering the fact that in the first half of 2022, we hope to have the full network open and consequently the comparison base is easier in the region of 25% of closure experienced this year. The 25% of growth of the wholesale backlog is in the right direction.

Oriana Cardani
Research Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Marco Baccaglio with Kepler. Please go ahead.

Marco Baccaglio
Co-Head of Institutional Research and Head of Primary Research, Kepler

[Non-English content] . Thank you for taking my questions. One is a clarification. What is the net financial position at the end of September? Because in the presentation I read EUR 109.1 million at page 10, while in the press release I read EUR 95 million. Is it correct that you're saying that you expect a further improvement by year-end? The second question is, if you can break down this 22% of online sales, how much is you and how much is third parties?

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Net financial position is, let's say, net financial position versus banks, plus or minus the fair value hedge of derivatives. EUR 10 million is the debt. We have EUR 13.5 million of positive value of our derivative because we have been able to cover U.S. dollar in for winter for full year 2022 quite well. Let's say the region of an average of EUR 1.19 million , EUR 1.20 million . The value is EUR 13.5 million. EUR 108 million less the positive value means EUR 95 million . That is the net financial position before IFRS 16. Assuming the same value of hedging, what about the EUR 108 million of debt? We are...

This is important also to say that, today we have been able to, let's say, to close the most part of the negotiation we had in place with the landlords. In June, the outstanding debt regarding unpaid rent was EUR 14 million. At the end of September was EUR 9 million, so the net EUR 108 million debt include also this additional payment. Today, it is EUR 4.5 million. It means that we have been able to close more or less all the litigation, all the negotiation we had. Notwithstanding this factor, we assume to be able to be regarding debt versus bank in the region of EUR 100 million - EUR 110 million, as I said, in the last call. We will see what about the positive value of derivatives.

Marco Baccaglio
Co-Head of Institutional Research and Head of Primary Research, Kepler

Okay, thank you.

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Regarding the online putting together wholesale web and direct web, the growth is 30%. Direct web, the growth is like-for-like 25%. Today, we are in the region of EUR 140 million at September, and EUR 38 million direct web, EUR 102 million wholesale web.

Marco Baccaglio
Co-Head of Institutional Research and Head of Primary Research, Kepler

[Non-English content] .

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

You're welcome.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Moretti Polegato, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Livio Libralesso
CEO, Geox

Okay. Thank you for your time. We are inviting you to the Investor Day on December 2nd. It will be in the afternoon at 2:30 P.M. We will provide also the streaming, and I hope we will be able in that Investor Day to clarify the future strategy. I'm really pleased to say that the reorganization process has been finished, completed. Now on my table, there is no other big challenges to manage. Also to have been able to sell the premises in Serbia and to close also in a very short time, in three months also, this deal has been important. Let's focus on the future. Thank you very much. Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephone.

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