Can you break up this plus 9%? Can you give us a breakdown between volumes and prices? Because I have the feeling that there is an underlying trend, of structural growth in the prices for these activities. I'd like to hear you confirm that. I'd also like to hear your comment on the most recent regulatory decision by Hera on the urban waste treatment business. They cut returns by 40 bps-50 bps . What impact can this have on you? Moving on to a more philosophical or structural question. You are one of the companies in Europe with the lowest leverage and the lowest payout. My philosophical question is, moving forward, how do you expect to proceed with a capital structure headed more towards three times? Can you do this with targeted M&A?
Some of you mentioned the industrial activities or the industrial opportunities to go back to three times. Or will this happen only through organic CapEx, or do you expect to increase the dividend progressively? How do you—what is your philosophical approach to the balance sheet regarding the leverage and the payout, which is relatively low? Thank you.
Thank you, Javier, and good afternoon to you. Let me begin with a question on energy supply. Objectively speaking, the market is more competitive, which is nothing new. There is a lot of pressure from the traditional players, plus all of the new operators. We are in a context in which competition has been increasing at the same speed for the past four, five years. That is the context we work in. We constantly change our commercial policy.
What I mean by that is that both as far as our offers are concerned and as far as our commercial position is concerned, we always try to be updated. We try to adjust things based on the market opportunities and based on the specific momentary situations. That is also linked to prices, in energy and to customer sensitivity. This is a constantly evolving activity. As far as competition is concerned, we have always underlined our multi-business approach and our ability to satisfy our customers, even in the post-sales activities. Through this, we've always had a lower churn rate compared to the market. That's what we want to continue doing. This is an activity that we are working on and which we are constantly updating. So far, the results we've obtained have been very positive, all in all.
Also seeing the growth we've had over the first nine months of the year. That was an answer regarding your question on energy supply. As far as waste is concerned, let me hand it over to Orazio before I take your last question regarding the future, since we're also working on our business plan.
Thank you, Christian. As far as the waste business is concerned, besides the Delta perimeter I was referring to, which gives a small contribution when it comes to growth, our prices have been slightly better compared to 2024 due to the reasons we're all aware of, because the market in Italy is short and because the price to export waste to platforms abroad is increasing. We have an increase in logistics prices and costs linked to CO2. Price is an issue. Other than that, we offer more services compared to other competitors.
We offer global waste management services, which are increasing. Thanks to the broad and diversified portfolio we have, we're able to increase services. We're also doing better on volumes, specifically when it comes to industrial waste, the special waste, not the urban waste. As you've probably seen, those volumes are growing compared to the first nine months in 2024. They've grown slightly, but they have grown. These are the three points that allow us to increase our margins compared to 2024. As far as the issue relating to the recent deliberations on urban waste, our plans are based on a regional method, which means that they are not impacted by this deliberation. Therefore, as far as our plans are concerned, there is no impact.
As far as collection is concerned, and therefore, as far as services are concerned, our growth on sort of the collection and therefore the quality of service, whenever we will have the possibility to tap into some premiums, that will certainly only be an opportunity for Hera Group. There are no criticalities we see, but only positive things. We are multi-business even within the waste business. We use all possible levers.
Moving on to your final question, which I think relates more to the business plan than to the orderly presentations.
Without going too much into the things we'll be sharing during the business plan presentation, your question is, with all of the levers you have, with all the financial flexibility you have, do you know what needs to be done, or do you want to give that money back to your shareholders by increasing your dividend? Actually, from the industrial standpoint, we have major investment opportunities. We're working on our business plan update, and in all businesses, there are more investment opportunities compared to what we actually allocate in the business plan, which makes things very easy for us. Therefore, organic growth is something that we can achieve. We don't need to do anything strange, because our businesses are moving along quite well. They need investment in water and electricity distribution and waste.
If you consider the first nine months of the year, most of the investment was made on water and on waste, in which we continue to work on our plants to renovate them and expand them, but also by growing on our perimeter. Think of the investments we're making on rigid plastics and on fiber, which you're already familiar with. We are looking to expand our presence and to increase our capacity. When it comes to the water networks, we have good growth opportunities given the good quality of our service, as can be seen by the premiums we've obtained, but also with all of the resilience challenges that we can take advantage of. Also, in the other business areas, there is plenty of demand. Think of the energy sector.
Think of energy efficiency, where increasingly, even in the public administration sector, there is a lot of interest in projects with upfront investments by ESCO, with payments made in installments at a later stage by the customer, with a good remuneration as far as the invested capital is concerned. We have plenty of organic growth opportunities. On the other hand, as you know, there is also a lot of excitement when it comes to M&A. We have plenty of files. We tend to be selective because we want to work on initiatives that are consistent with our business plan. We want to focus on companies that can fit well with our platform or those that can allow us to expand our perimeter, expanding our presence in neighboring territories as we develop our business areas. That is the first element we focus on.
The second element I'd like to mention is that there are some possible targets that we're looking at. Of course, prices have to be consistent with real value creation. We have no anxiety. We don't have the need to add pieces to the puzzle without creating value for the company. We're looking at creating synergies, and we're looking at investments, payments, and value creation, which needs to be consistent with an adequate industrial growth. As far as dividends are concerned, every year when we update our business plan, we review our dividend policy, which is what we'll be doing this year as well to see whether or not we have to amend things, also given the market situation. Of course, we're comforted by the results that we're seeing. I focus more on quality, because your question was a more qualitative one.
Of course, in the business plan, when we will share the business plan update with you, we can go into the details of the various choices we've made.
That was interesting. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question is by Emanuele Oggioni, Kepler Cheuvreux. Over to you, Emanuele.
Good afternoon. I hope you can hear me. Thank you for the presentation. I also have a few questions for you. The first is on IMAG. Can you give us an update? We know what happened. We're aware of the problems. What is the scenario you expect for 2026? Will you renew your talks with them? Will you try to find a political slash bureaucratic solution? What can we expect from IMAG? Can you tell us something more about that?
I have a second question on the energy supply business and on the 800,000 customers that have stayed on with you following the tenders last year. Give us an update on that. Also, given the market dynamics you mentioned with an increase in the churn rate in recent years, not just over the last year, on the market in general, how are things changing and what is your approach to that sector since you mentioned that you were constantly updating and changing your commercial policies? I have a third question on the waste business. In September, a 30% reduction in food waste per capita regulation was approved for food retailers and restaurants. There was also talk of extending those same numbers to the textile industry and for footwear.
Is it a little bit too soon to talk about that, or are you looking at a potential positive impact in terms of growth on the waste market and possible investments you may be making? Thank you.
Thank you. Good afternoon, Emanuele. IMAG. Where do we stand for the time being? As you yourself were mentioning, the framework agreement we had signed cannot move forward. What we are left with is that the public shareholders of the company, first of all, and we ourselves are trying to find a strategic solution for the company's future. We want to find a solution for the company and the company, first of all, public shareholders will have to find a solution. They will have to find an approach. That is all I can say for the time being.
As far as IMAG is concerned, you may remember that we have a 25% stake in the company. We've had it for quite some time. The company is looking at what can possibly be done looking forward. We have been working on a project and we'll see what happens moving forward on energy supply and more specifically on STG. As I mentioned in the previous conference calls, we're very happy with that customer segment, which has a very low churn rate. Things are going well from that point of view. Just to give you an idea, since you always ask us to give you some figures on the topic, all in all, compared to a year ago, we have lost 120,000-130,000 customers of that overall segment. Things went very well compared to the sector's churn rate. Our numbers are much lower.
That is valuable to us because they are loyal customers with an interesting price, although I'm not sure that is what actually keeps them loyal. Although they are proving to be loyal to an operator that they're creating a good relationship with because we're offering a good service. We're very positive towards them with plenty of initiatives. Therefore, things are looking good to us. We have a different commercial offering, also taking into account the cost of energy and the uncertainties regarding the future. As I already mentioned, we are working on the Hera Hybrid offer, which allows our end customers to choose the percentage of volumes they can block a price on and the other percentage that they can keep a variable price on for a total amount of 100%, allowing every customer to invest with the appropriate risk profile, matching their needs and their energy trend forecasts.
We have the vast part of things, that too is a customer segment that we're working well on. We're still very satisfied with the investment we made. Fifteen months have passed now, and we're getting close to the halfway mark of the period during which the regulatory tariffs for this specific market have to be maintained. Orazio, do you want to talk about waste?
Yes, as far as the waste business is concerned, for food plastics, if I understood correctly, Emanuele.
My question was on the 30% reduction in food waste per capita from restaurant, food retailers, and services, from that sector.
We're studying the matter, and we will certainly be able to take advantage of these opportunities. I'm saying that because when it comes to food, when it comes to the food sector, we are already present in that market.
There are a number of opportunities that we will be discussing with you when we have some clearer figures. Earlier, when I mentioned plastics, as you know, we are very much interested in virgin or recycled plastic from other countries on the European market. As you saw, we are performing very well. We have doubled our volumes compared to June, thanks to our positioning on the high-end secondary raw materials, especially in the food packaging sector. Because, as you know, when it comes to the legislation regarding plastics, which are used for the food sector, we are positioned very well with PET, both in film and in chips. It is one of our strengths, as you know.
We're integrated on the entire value chain, and we are also positioned with a multi-polymer approach, which means that by using various types of polymers, we are very resilient compared to the sector's economic cycles.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
The next question is by Roberto Letizia, Equita SIM.
Good afternoon, and thank you very much for your presentation. I'd like to ask for a few more details on the topic of M&A. As far as your company is concerned, M&A has always been very important. Let me begin with a more generic question. First of all, can you explain the overall dimension of the M&A market for Hera? What I mean by that is, what is the size of the market you would tap into? Of course, not everything is then finalized.
It depends on opportunities or when it comes to IMAG, you also have some technical issues you have to take into account. What is the realistic potential that Hera can look to? Is it your neighboring markets, the sectors you're involved in? Just to have a more long-term idea, what is the traceable market you refer to for M&A? How broad is your potential on the current market? Also, as far as M&A is concerned, I was able to read between the lines during your previous comment on M&A, but when it comes to minority stakes for Hera, can you give us some further element on timing? When will this happen? What is the timeline you have in mind? Another comment on STG. Besides mentioning how many customers switched, can you also tell us how many customers have moved on to the liberalized market?
We could just complete the picture. And then I'd like to also interpret your body language on a possible buyback, because of course, M&A can drag a buyback along with it. In other words, I may have some midterm opportunities. And I can try to remunerate shareholders temporarily with a buyback so that I can then use the shares when M&A becomes more plausible or feasible? Thank you.
You prepared some very easy questions today, did not you? All right then, let me try to answer your first question. You were asking us about the potential M&A market, as we have understanding whether or not the size of that market is a constraint when it comes to growth. For the time being, I do not think it is a constraint when it comes to growth.
If we add up the targets we've looked into, even only during the first nine months, the overall size we see refers to the multiples of an M&A target. Therefore, the M&A market is the topic we're looking at. Since we are a multi-business company, we look at all opportunities which allow us to grow according to the rules that we've mentioned time and time again in the various business areas we work in. From that point of view, the topic of the market size isn't a criticality. As you know, we've allocated about EUR 100 million in terms of EBITDA size, for an equal impact on P&F worth EUR 700 million in the business plan. With this lever, we feel that this number may even double, as long as we have the right things that we can be interested in.
From that point of view, there are no specific constraints when it comes to opportunities. Moving on to your question on minorities, you may have seen that, over the past nine months, we have worked to create value. We did buy back some of the minorities, which were outstanding. We also had some put options that we could have used or some call options that we could have used, some of which we moved forward. We brought back all the minorities that we were talking about. When it comes to Hera Ambiente, it's work in progress and we will be describing the end game of the process once we complete it. We are looking over things carefully. As far as STG is concerned, let's just take things one step at a time. I mentioned what we did so far and, later on, I'll complete the picture.
We're working very well and, I don't want to go into the more sensitive dynamics when it comes to what we're doing to transform things on the liberalized market. As far as how we intend to finance M&A even temporarily, as I mentioned, we have the cash to do that, but there may be other things to consider, other actions that we may want to take into account when the time is right. That is the overall picture. I understand that I didn't give you an extremely specific answer, but I'm sure you were expecting this kind of answer based on the questions you asked.
Our next question is by Davide Candela, Banca Intesa Sanpaolo. Davide, over to you.
Yes, good afternoon and thank you for your presentation and thank you for the questions. I have a couple of questions for you.
The first is on energy supply and M&A. In the business plan, you have a target of 2028 equal to 4.5 million customers, which included a major churn on the STG portfolio, along with an M&A from net acquisitions, which would allow you to achieve that target. For the time being, your STG portfolio is performing slightly better, given the 100,000 customer reduction. Whereas when it comes to M&A, based on what you were saying regarding market competition and looking at the multiples of other deals, it may be a little bit more difficult. I am trying to understand, is your target achievable with a different mix or are the M&A conditions only temporary and will there be an extra contribution? I have a second question on your debt and on your debt structure, fixed rate and variable rate.
The market trend seems to be looking towards a shift towards the variable rate. Are you also in line with that approach or are you comfortable with your current structure?
You remember the business plan part relating to energy supply, but nine months have passed since the presentation, and I think it's difficult to change our approach for the time being. The part linked to our commercial activities is moving forward in line with the expected activities. Even considering the number of customers and those dynamics, you also had to take into account the concept market, the last instance market. There are some dynamics which continue to exist. Just to give you an idea of the size, IMAG has 200,000 customers. That's their overall size, just to give you an idea.
Over the period, we also considered some customer portfolios, which we were not entirely convinced with and we did not move forward. For us, both of these levers are feasible and we just had to look at the right opportunities. The commercial side of things is something that we will continue to go forward and it may end up giving us the best possible result. If we can look to the acquisition of interesting companies or interesting businesses and some companies, we will look into that. We are looking at both things. Between the end of the old business plan to 2028 and the beginning of the new business plan to 2029, we still have a few years that we can work on.
As far as the debt structure, do you have anything to add to that?
Very briefly, when it comes to the debt structure, we have no intention of amending our references. We want to continue focusing very much on fixed rate debt. Also, because we have a good percentage of invested capital in the regulated sector, that choice is a hedging choice compared to tariffs. As you know, the WACC defined within tariffs is updated for 13%-14% every year with the new cost of money parameters. Having fixed rate bonds with a dimension which is consistent with that figure allows us to be connected to the overall revenues trend. That is part of the decisions that we chose.
Thank you.
We have a follow-up question by Emanuele Oggioni, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Thank you. Yes, I have two other questions that I had taken note of. One is on the September tenders for the last resort and default service.
In the gas default service, you won all nine tenders, whereas for the gas services, which is riskier, I'm not sure how you performed. In the business plan, you were saying that these temporary opportunities had been removed above and beyond the profitability, which is lower compared to the past, so the profitability of the new tenders is lower, but I still wanted to understand how incremental they are compared to the business plan and how much of that is already included in the business plan. The second question refers to the gas distribution tenders, for the mandatory disposals for Ethel Gas and Italgas Rete Gas. You obviously did not consider them to be especially interesting. Why is that? Was it a matter of price or was it based on other more industrial aspects? Thank you.
Let me begin with the gas last instant market tenders.
Yes, on the FUI market, the price level was not interesting for us. We did not make a bid. Therefore, we were not awarded the tender. As far as the default market is concerned, the offer we made, we thought was interesting, but the EBITDA contribution is not very relevant. It is not very important. It is very much part of the ordinary things that we look into. In the business plan, we had not expected anything, so it is a little bit on top of what we were expecting. It is a little extra. On the topic of gas distribution and the Ethel Gas sales, there were a number of small pieces of the network spread out over Italy. We studied things, we even made a bid in the tender just to see what the size of the networks was, and what their economics were.
We focused on price, which, obviously, was not adequate compared to the choices which were made. Those areas were not neighboring or they were not embedded compared to our current network. Even from that point of view, our interest was lower, also given the fact that they were smaller and more spread out and they were difficult to optimize. Thank you.
Mr. Fabri, there are no further questions.
Very well then. We did very well on time. We began an hour ago. Have a wonderful afternoon and all the very best.