Italgas S.p.A. (BIT:IG)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Oct 24, 2024

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Italgas nine months 2024 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephones. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Anna Maria Scaglia, Head of IR of Italgas. Please go ahead, madam.

Anna Maria Scaglia
Head of Investor Relations, Italgas

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will walk you through Italgas nine months results. I'm here with our CEO, Mr. Paolo Gallo, and our CFO, Mr. Gianfranco Amoroso. I leave now the floor to our CEO, Mr. Paolo Gallo.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

Good morning for the people that are listening from U.S., and good afternoon for the others. We're going to present today the third quarter results, and I'm starting from page number two, when you can see that the momentum that was already clear on the first six months is here an increase. EBITDA, EBIT, and net income show a double-digit growth. As well, we see just a slight reduction in the overall revenues, and that it is clearly the reason is driven by the disappearance of the Superbonus. In fact, on the revenue side, we recorded an increase of 11.5% year- after- year regarding gas distribution, that I would like to remind you that has been supported by the update of the Italian regulation.

That is recognize higher WACC, deflator and the inflation on the OpEx, that I would like to remind you that is the. Because of the delay in terms of recognition, we saw it only in twenty twenty-four, but inflation and higher interest rate already started back in twenty twenty-two. On top of that, we have also an increase of revenues coming from the CapEx and investment we made last year that resulted in an increase of our RAB. The new revenues are coming from Acqua Campania, that, as you know, has been consolidated in the last eight months, that has partially offset the decline in the ESCO business.

Let me say that thanks to the increase of EBITDA and thanks to the fact that the increase has been significant and even higher than the increase regarding depreciation and interest cost, that's the reason why you see an increase in EBIT and net income, that in term of percentage is higher than the EBITDA. Let's move to the other picture that is on page three. Operating cash flow. Operating cash flow, you see, we nearly double last year operating cash flow. That is the other element of the decrease of revenues, the disappearance of the Superbonus. You remember very well that last year we had a significant cash absorption driven by the Superbonus. This year, we don't have that.

O n top of that, we also use the tax credit coming from the Superbonus itself. The CapEx is slightly lower than last year. I will explain you in a moment why, but if I look at the core of the CapEx expenditure, that is exactly in line of last year. The third quarter, as the seasonality of our revenues, is always probably the, let me say, the worst in term of cash generation from the revenues point of view, because of the seasonality. That's the reason that you have. You can see and you can notice that the net debt has increased in respect not only of last year, but also in respect of the first six months. But that is absolutely in line with what we expected.

Let's take a look at the CapEx. So we are on Page 4. We invested around EUR 550 million . That is 6.7% lower than last year. The reason is mainly one: We have a lower spending in the digitization, considering that by the end of the year, we will have completely 90% of our program to be fully digitized the network. So we are at the end of this program. But if you look at the absolute number, absolute number is still significant. It represent slightly below 30% of our overall investment. The other reason why we spend less, and that's, let me say, a good signal, is that we spend less in the lower centralized CapEx.

As you know very well, this number is not impacting the RAB, because the centralized RAB is recognized on a standard basis. It is based on the number of redelivery points that we manage. So that is a good indication that we are saving some money also in the centralized, or what's called centralized CapEx. Regarding the core activity, that is the development and repurposing of the network, that is exactly in line with last year. In this period, we laid down more than 500 km of pipes, of which nearly 300 km were completed in Greece. So also on this side, the investment in Greece is continuing, is on track. 300 km is a significant number, but that is exactly in line with our expectation.

Let's take a look for a moment about the environmental performance. We always show these. These numbers are again significant, both in terms of net energy consumption and in terms of Scope 1 and 2 emissions. We registered in the energy consumptions - 11% in respect of last year, and Scope 1 and 2 emissions - 10%. If we look at the net energy consumption on the left side of the page, the main driver is the saving in terms of gas consumption, both in the industrial and in the real estate gas consumption. So in the building, in our building gas consumption. That is the major driver, as you can see, 25 TJ that represent the majority.

Then we have, of course, some reduction also in the electricity consumption, some reduction in the fuels, thanks to the lower kilometers that we have used our vehicles, and the lower kilometers are directly linked to the progressive application of our digital... progressive use of our digital application. If we look at the Scope 1 and 2 emissions on the right side, again, here, the majority of the reduction is relevant to the gas leaks. Let me say, let me spend a few words on that because that is even a better result that in respect to just the number that you can see here. Why I'm saying that? Because we recorded less emission than last year, but at the same time, we have inspected nearly 110,000 km.

That is about 135% of our overall network. In nine months, not only we have inspected once all our network, but we have inspected even more. The fact that this amount that is nearly -10%, it is an extreme positive numbers because it is computed considering having done much more kilometer than last year. The increase of kilometer survey has been nearly 40% in respect of last year. The data that we were able to collect through the inspection of our network has helped us to identify intervention regarding the CapEx based on predictive maintenance. That is going to be even more true and more often in the future, the more that we collect data about the behavior of our network.

Then, of course, the remaining reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions are not so significant. Let me add one element, that is, - 10% includes also the new global warming potential factor that has increased. Otherwise, the reduction on a like-for-like basis in respect of last year would have been - 18%. Let me move to the page six and take a look at the revenues. As you can see, I have already said that the adjusted revenues for gas distribution increased by 11.5%, compared to last year. T he reason is the one that you see in the page is the regulatory WACC, is the RAB growth, the deflator, and the inflation positive impact.

As I told you, WACC, deflator, inflate, and inflation reflects some delay in time that is based on our regulation. It arrives late in respect to the increase to the inflation cost and to interest rate raising that we have already experienced. For the water business, the consolidation of Acqua Campania for eight months contributed to almost EUR 53 million in the period, and that is partially offsetting the negative impact of the ESCO. That is, as you can see, EUR 235 million less in respect of last year. Let's take a look at the cost. We are on Page 7. The cost is significantly decreasing in respect of last year because there is no more cost of the Superbonus.

But if we do a comparison on a like-for-like basis, again, these nine months, we recorded a - 1% on a like-for-like basis. Acqua Campania contributed for the eight months nearly EUR 30 million for additional cost. Let's move to Slide 8. This is my last page before I move the floor to Gianfranco. We had, we registered, an increase in the EBITDA adjusted of nearly 11%, and we passed EUR 1 billion of EBITDA. That is, I mean, in nine months is a significant performance. As you can look at the breakdown of the business, you can appreciate that the great majority, as we expected, is still related to the Italian distribution activity.

Greece contributed nearly EUR 100 million, and EUR 25 million came from the combination of the other two businesses, water and ESCO. If we look on the EBIT evolution, that is on the right side of the chart, the EBIT increased by nearly 13%. That increased more than if you look at what happened in the first semester, and we are closing at EUR 605 million . Of course, it has been supported by the increase of EBITDA that we have seen before, and there is also, the, for the first time, an EBIT contribution coming from Acqua Campania, EUR 4.2 million.

Meanwhile, we have, as expected, an increase of depreciation amortization nearly 12 million, mainly related to the fact that last year we invested a significant amount, and therefore, we are registered more depreciation. Now, Gianfranco will continue into the presentation, and we'll guide you through the net profit and the cash flow.

Gianfranco Amoroso
CFO, Italgas

Thank you, Paolo. On Slide 9, you see net profit adjusted after minorities that has reached an amount of EUR 361.7 million, with a remarkable increase of 14.2%. This has been driven by a solid operating performance, with the EBIT that is up of almost EUR 69 million, EUR 69 million. The other component, net financial expenses, marked at a level of EUR 85.8 million or EUR 13.8 million higher than last year's same period, mainly due to the full nine-month impact of the bond that we issued last June in 2023, and the new bond that we have issued this year, last February. For the income from equity investment, there is an increase by EUR 8 million, mainly due to the contribution of water affiliates, Siciliacque and Acqualatina, both of them equity consolidated.

Finally, we accounted for EUR 145 million of adjusted income taxes, marking an increase of approximately EUR 20 million due to a higher taxable income. So the tax rate has been 27.5%, slightly above last year, it was 26.9% or 27%. Moving to the following page, just to say that you see a recap of all the details of the profit and loss, those elements we have discussed in the previous slides, and also the growth rate compared to the same period of last year. I will skip it, and we'll go directly to the following, where we show the impact of adjustments and the reconciliation of the P&L adjusted with the reported P&L figures.

The adjustment are the same, already reported in our first half report, and as you can see, there are all approximately EUR 10 million of adjustment at the level of revenues, EBITDA, EBIT and EBT lines, carrying EUR 2.8 million of tax effect related to them. The reason of this adjustment is an item mainly related to the negative impact of an ARERA resolution, the resolution number 207 of this year, concerning revenues already allowed by ARERA in relation to a previous period, the period 2011 , 2016 , to cover the cost of the metering activity. So Italgas disagreed with such a resolution and took action to preserve its rights. Now, moving to the following page, we are on Page 12.

That is focused on water business, where, in line with the first quarter, the first half presentations, we. We aim to provide you with a better visibility of the performance of the water business. We have isolated the performance of the water business itself. As you know, we have 49% interest in Acqualatina, and we are not consolidating line by line Siciliacque , which we have a 75% ownership. So in the second column, we made a comparison with the representation of both Siciliacque and Acqualatina on a pro quota basis, leading to an EBITDA overall of almost EUR 41 million . Now, looking at the evolution of the cash flow on the following page, we are on Page 13.

First point, you can see that cash flow from operation was around EUR 713 million, expressing a significant increase, more than EUR 300 million, if compared to the first nine months of last year. To explain this, you will remember that last year was deeply impacted by some specific elements on net working capital, like the Superbonus tax receivables. The opposite, this year, we have seen a progressive normalization of the net working capital, which reflects the typical seasonality on the business after the summer season that is characterized by lower level of consumption. As a result, the cash flow from operation covered net CapEx of around EUR 590 million, and part of the dividend payment of EUR 285 million to Italgas shareholders, so that occurred in the second quarter, and other variation in the period.

All in all, this resulted in an increase of net debt of EUR 270 million. If we look at the financial structure on the ... at the end of September, first, let me underline the important fact that both Moody's and Fitch affirmed Italgas ratings following the announcement of the deal of the 2i Rete Gas acquisition. While also Standard and Poor's put 2i Rete Gas under positive credit watch for the same reason, in light of the potential acquisition. This is a clear recognition of the strong strategic and financial rationale of the deal, in our view, at least. Focusing on our debt maturities, let me recap that transaction that we have completed so far.

A new bond of EUR 650 million fixed rate issued in February with a coupon of 3.18%, and the tap issuance of the same bond in September for additional EUR 350 million, the same condition, of course, reaching a rounded amount of EUR 1 billion. We also concluded this year the repayment of the bond of EUR 380 million, expired in March. In addition, we have completed a new EUR 600 million sustainability-linked revolving credit facility. All this transaction, coupled with the cash flow evolution described in the previous slide, resulted in a level of liquidity just above EUR 600 million at the end of September.

Another important point is that notwithstanding the refinancing activities that occurred in this year, we managed to keep the average cost of debt just above the level of last year, at 1.5%. As far as the current composition of our debt is concerned, it remains substantially unchanged. 93% is fixed and the remaining 7% is floating. I now leave the floor back to Paolo for his final remarks.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

A couple of those final remarks before we open the Q&A section. Let me say that I'm extremely pleased about the performance that we registered in the first nine months, notwithstanding the effort that we put on the other deal, to close the other deal of 2i Rete Gas. And we just couple of weeks ago, we just presented a full integrated and combined plan with 2i Rete Gas. If we look more on the nine months result, let me say that the gas distribution fundamental remains extremely strong, not only for the fact that we have received, even if we've had delay, an increase in WACC and deflator, in inflation, but also because we were able to keep our cost under control.

Not only we were able even to reduce our cost in respect of last year. As well, we recorded positive contribution from Greece and the water, in line with our plan. We are working hard on the energy efficiency activity to rebuild the business on a more solid basis, not thinking about the Superbonus anymore, but trying to provide effective offers to industrials, to big residential and eventually to public administration, in order to really improve the efficiency results also in our customer, as we were able to show in Italgas.

Remember that the numbers that we show in terms of reduction of energy consumption is driven by the effort of our energy efficiency company into the overall group. So this is what our ESCO is able to provide to us, and it would be able to provide to any other customer. I will leave the floor back to the audience, and I'm opening the Q&A session.

Gianfranco Amoroso
CFO, Italgas

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please pick up the receiver and press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one. At this time, the first question is from John Campbell with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

John Campbell
VP, Bank of America

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got three quick ones, if I can. First thing I wanted to ask you about, given that you sort of now reported nine-month results, is basically, do you see upside to your ad hoc full year guidance, you know, EBITDA, EBIT level, et cetera, based on what you've seen for the nine months? Second question is, maybe can you provide some sort of details about the full year CapEx guidance as well? I think it was EUR 900 million that you announced for the full year, and you've done EUR 500 million-ish so far. That seems to require quite a non-trivial acceleration in the fourth quarter. So is that on track? Third one is basically, can you give basically... When can you provide us with more visibility on potential antitrust disposals? How long will that take? Thank you.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

Let me say that the first question are relevant to the guidance. Well, we are. I mean, we have shown a significant result in the first nine months. We, of course, cannot do anything different that confirm the guidance we gave the guidance two weeks ago. We may eventually. Let's see what is going to end the year and see how it looks like. But for the time being, guidance is confirmed. In particular, on the CapEx side, we may be slightly below EUR 900 million, so I'm not confirming. Sadly, we say that around EUR 900 million. So with that number in the first nine months, we will probably be slightly below EUR 900 million.

But still, I'm looking, you know, I'm looking for the technical CapEx, in a sense that I'm looking for about the number of digital equipment that we connected to the grid, to our network, that we bring the, these digital equipment to DANA, the number of kilometer that we have as an objective to lay down, and we are perfectly in line. So at the end of the day, if we spend less, that's fine for me, as long as we meet our target in term of physical target, and that is absolutely in line with what we have decided internally to reach as a physical targets. Regarding the antitrust, we just recently filed the antitrust documentation. It will take a little bit of time in order that we will have some feedback from them. So we are not. We don't have any kind of information we can deliver to the market right now. But we can confirm you that we have filed the antitrust documentation.

John Campbell
VP, Bank of America

Okay, that's clear. Thank you.

Anna Maria Scaglia
Head of Investor Relations, Italgas

Next question, please.

Operator

The next question is from Aleksandra Arsova with Equita. Please go ahead.

Aleksandra Arsova
Equity Research Analyst, Equita

Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. A couple of on my end. The first one is on some rumors on newspapers that again, the government is thinking of changing the rules for gas tenders. So maybe if you can confirm that actually something is happening or it's just the usual rumors. A gain, that maybe these new rules will imply some new considerations on the technological developments of the operators bidding for the tenders. So this should help you actually. So just if you could confirm or not this new approach. T hen the second one is maybe just some color on the non-regulated, the energy efficiency projects.

You mentioned that now you're, of course, not considering more the Superbonus, but you are building on some new activities. Maybe if you can give us an idea of where you see the figures of the non-regulated business, apart from water, in 2025. Thank you.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

Regarding the first one, the rumors that you mentioned, I have not seen in the last several weeks about this changing in the number of items, so I don't know. But I just mentioned that because I was not aware of. Let me say that from what we understood, the effort from a legislative point of view is to make the tenders happen. That, unfortunately, is not what we have recorded in the last 12 years. During our strategic plan presentation, we underlined the fact that in 12 years we had only nine items that have been awarded up to now, and there is maybe one out of ten that is going to happen, as in terms of awarding, we know already the result.

I think the effort that has been done in the past year, with very little effect, close to zero was to improve the tenders process. So any, let me say, any modification in that that will help the tenders to happen, I think it is more than welcome. So we are, let me say, supporting any modification in the tender rules that will help the tenders to happen. So we will evaluate any proposal that will come, but if those proposal are in the direction to make this up, to make the tenders up and are more than welcome. Regarding the energy efficiency, as I told you, we have exited, like we knew already the Superbonus period.

We are focusing on, especially on the industrial or small and medium size industries, to provide offer about energy efficiency. Also, based on the experience that the energy efficiency company has gained inside the group, and the numbers are clearly evident. T hat what we have shown and the track record that we have shown on the ability of the energy efficiency company to provide a solution to reduce the energy consumption, both in terms of gas and electricity. For 2025, let me say that we will see a better result in terms of higher results, higher revenues, higher EBITDA on the, you know, on the energy efficiency.

But, honestly, I don't have any idea how, any idea or number that I can tell you right now because it's too early. They are working very hard to create a situation where we can make a significant offer and contribution to third party, how to reduce the energy consumption in line with what we were able to do already in Italgas.

Operator

Okay, brilliant. Thank you. The next question is from Emanuele Oggioni with Kepler. Please go ahead.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler

Good evening, and thank you for taking my question as well. I have two. The first one is on the net working capital guidance for the full year, and also if you remind your policy about the how to use the fiscal tax assets related to the Superbonus. If I remember well, the amount could be roughly EUR 290 million a year in order to benefit the cash flow of the company, and the second question is still on ESCO business. So you mentioned a recovery in 2025 in line with the plan assumption, but you are good in riding this wave in the last few years.

I ask if you still consider as a core business this kind of not regulated activity, also in light of the transformational deal with 2i Rete Gas. I n the future, could be disposed or could be considered no more as a core. Thank you.

Gianfranco Amoroso
CFO, Italgas

Emanuele, we will take your first question about the evolution of net working capital. You've seen that at the end of September, the net working capital absorbed cash for EUR 43 million-EUR 44 million, approximately. As I commented, this is quite usual for the period of the year because of the lower level of consumption during the summer months. As far as the projection for the year end, as you mentioned, also, there will be a positive impact of the Superbonus tax receivable in this case. The number you mentioned is wrong. We are talking of around EUR 130 million per year. Part of this has been already, of course, utilized this summer for the payment of the first installment of the taxes.

The remaining will be utilized by the end of October for the payment of the remaining of the tax, and overall, I will expect a positive sign of the net working capital, so a change in the sign from negative to positive by year-end.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

I'm taking the question regarding the energy efficiency. Let me go back to the strategy, because otherwise, if we don't go back to our vision about the future, you may eventually understand that why you are doing the energy efficiency business. Energy efficiency, if you remember, that there are at least two strong connection with our gas distribution activity. The first one is that we, by law, are obliged to buy energy certificates year- after- year, based on the volume that we distributed on the gas. So there is an intimate connection with energy efficiency because we are obliged to buy energy efficiency to support the energy efficiency certificate productions, the energy efficiency project.

That's the reason why, if you remember, back in 2018 , we decided to enter into this business because we say, why we don't because we are obliged, we want also to take some business advantage being sidelined, not just buying and selling, buying and selling, energy efficiency certificate. And that was the reason that we had in two thousand and eighteen about entering into that, and it still continue to be true. The second, even more important, is that in our vision of the energy efficiency of the energy transition, energy efficiency is playing a significant role to reach the objective of the net zero by 2050 . As well as distributing green gases such as biomethane and hydrogen gas, synthetic gas, and so forth.

So it's part of our strategy, the energy efficiency, as one of the tools that we have in order to support the energy transition. For that reason, energy efficiency is part of our core business, even if it's a small one. Third one, but it is probably it. Let me say, it is a side, but it is as well important, thanks to the knowledge and the competence and the expertise of the people that are in the energy efficiency company, we were able to achieve the reduction in the energy consumption and the reduction in CO2 emission that we are showing to you every quarter.

So they are using us, as Italgas group, as the, let me say, the first company to deliver all the new ideas about reducing energy consumption and reducing CO2 emission. But, in that way, you can see that the energy efficiency is fully integrated in our business and strategy.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler

Thank you for your clarification.

Operator

The next question-

Anna Maria Scaglia
Head of Investor Relations, Italgas

Next question.

Operator

Next question is from Javier Suarez with Mediobanca. Please, go ahead.

Javier Suarez
Managing Director and Vice Head of European Equity and Credit Research, Mediobanca

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions as well. Two questions remaining. One is on Greece and your activities there. I'm interested on the industrial performance and where do you see the EBITDA margin by the year end, and where we are in the process to move the Greek activities up to the Italian standard? T he second question is on slide number 13, on the cash flow statement and the working capital absorption. This number of EUR 44 million of capital absorption by the end of September, where do you think that number should be by the year end? Thank you.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

Regarding Greece, where we are, we told you that it will take. We just started, you saw, to work on Greece, if you remember, beginning of. It's less than two years. It's one year and a half, let me say. So the progress is significant, is very good. It takes time, so it's not immediate. We are deploying all our, let me say, capability and effort to bring them at the same level of the Italian regulation. We have made several progress already. So today, we recorded already nearly EUR 100 million of EBITDA, so you can make your math about the end of the year. It's quite easy. We told you that it will take three to four years to bring Greece at the same level of the Italian gas distribution.

We are well on track, so we are happy about that, so there is no complaint. Results are in line or even better than what we expected it for such a short period of time. I don't have any complaint. On the contrary, I'm very satisfied about what we are doing in Greece, not only in terms of result, but also in terms of CapEx deployment, because we have changed the speed in respect of the past. We are moving in the right direction, either to digitize the network and to expand the network in the area that they need to have expansion.

Just to remind you that we started already some LNG delivery point, so similar to what we have done in Greece, and it has been done in a very, very short period of time, much shorter than what happened in certain. Thanks. I will pass the for the second question to Gianfranco.

Gianfranco Amoroso
CFO, Italgas

Yeah, maybe the question has been already addressed in the last answer we gave. But in any case, I will go back to the point. In the last quarter, as you know, there are the usual elements in the net working capital by year-end, including the adjustment of the perequazione that is paid in December by the Cassa Conguaglio every year, and also this year. In addition, this year, we will have also the positive contribution to the cash by the tax credit of the Superbonus. So if you read across my previous answer, I said that there will be a change in the sign of the contribution net working capital. Normally, it's neutral. This year, probably will be positive.

Anna Maria Scaglia
Head of Investor Relations, Italgas

Next question, please.

Operator

The next question is from Alberto D'Antonio, BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Alberto D'Antonio
Equity Research Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

Hi, thank you so much for taking my questions. I will have stick to two. The first one is regarding the concession of the Municipality of Rome. I don't know if there's any update on that, on there, given that the concession is ending at the end of November. T he second one will be regarding the next regulatory period regulation. I guess conversation with the regulator are in the early stages or not even started. But if you could give us some light on the timeline that we can expect for that, and what will be your ideal regulation for the next regulatory period in order to achieve all your targets? Thank you so much.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

I will probably request to you, because the line was quite bad. I request to you, if you can repeat the second question, because I cannot answer. I have not understood. But before you go on, let me just respond to you about the Rome concession. Rome concession will expire in November, at the end of November, 2024 . But we don't have any news. It's up to the Municipality of Rome to get all, to request all the data. And I also would like to remind you that the tender, when the tender will happen, will involve not only Rome, but also other five comuni, other five municipality around Rome. So it's not just a matter to collect the data from the Rome municipality, but also to put together other five municipality. But we don't have any news about. Can you repeat the second question, please?

Alberto D'Antonio
Equity Research Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

Yes, it's regarding the next regulatory period regulation. Could you give us some light on the timeline that you expect to have further news from the regulator? I f you can elaborate on what will be your ideal regulation for the next regulatory period in order to achieve your targets. Thank you.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

Let me say that normally, next regulatory period that will start in 2026, what is normally happening is that the regulator will start issuing consultation documents about what the operators are thinking about a certain approach that the regulator may eventually decide to implement in the new regulatory period. So we don't have received any of these consultation documents because there are still open issues that have to be fixed by the end of the year, the new WACC for 2025. N ormally, the process starts in the late spring of 2025, so we will have a better idea of what the regulator is thinking about to change eventually some rules of the regulatory period only next year. So we don't have any indication what the regulator would like to change or to improve or whatever it is.

Because normally, the process is quite standard. They will issue the consultation document. They will get answering comments from everybody, from all stakeholders. They will issue probably a second consultation document, and then they will end up at the end of the year with the new regulatory rules. But it's too early to discuss about.

Anna Maria Scaglia
Head of Investor Relations, Italgas

Next question, please.

Operator

The next question is from Bartek Kubicki with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Bartek Kubicki
Analyst, Bernstein

Hello, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Three very short ones, two follow-ups. Thereof, I will start with the follow-ups. If we can look at Greece again, and if you could maybe provide us with the CapEx spent in nine months, and what's the today's outlook for 2024 and maybe 2025 in terms of CapEx increase? A lso a request related to this, whether you could, in the future, perhaps show us in the presentations, the CapEx related to Greece, as this is one of your growth engines. Secondly, if we come back to the Rome concessions, you are saying this will end in November 2024. So I wonder whether from December on, you will stop depreciating the assets and what impact on your EBITDA it could have as a consequence on that.

Last one, in the fourth quarter last year, you had a very low effective tax rate because of some I think it was R&D-related tax credits, and at that time you said a similar thing could happen this year. So I just wonder whether you have some visibility what could be the potential, if any, tax credit in the fourth quarter this year, and consequently impact on your effective tax rate and your net income. Thank you very much.

Paolo Gallo
CEO, Italgas

Okay. Let me start from Greece. You wanted to know which is the level of CapEx that we have recorded in the first nine months of Greece? I don't have the number in mind. We are slightly below EUR 90 million regarding Greece that is being suggested right now. So we expect to pass the EUR 100 million sure by year-end, but of course, we don't have a-. That is part of our overall guidance that I said before, that we should reach, we should- maybe we are not able to reach EUR 900 million, we will be slightly below. But for me, it's even more important that the physical numbers of number of equipment, number of smart meters, number of kilometers are reached.

That, for me is more important than the EUR 1 million spent. On the Rome concession, what we are going to end the depreciation this year is for the assets that are given for free to the local municipality of Rome. So that is what is going to end. That has been. I think we have already said probably several other times, that the amount that, by the concession, by the concession rule, we will give for free to the municipality of Rome for the next tender, so they will be owned by the municipality of Rome, have been completely depreciated by the end of 2024. The remaining asset that is owned by us will continue the depreciation as per regulatory depreciation.

So if it's a pipe, whatever is going to be the remaining, up to 50 years. If it's equipment, it's 25 years, the remaining, and so forth. Only, so only the amount and the assets that are given to the community of Rome are going to end the depreciation at this year. On the tax rate expected for 2024, I will ask Gianfranco to respond.

Gianfranco Amoroso
CFO, Italgas

Sure. There will be some improvement for the tax rate coming from the last year of the Patent Box. We are finalizing the documentation with the authority, but I can, as I anticipated also in the other calls, there will be a positive impact that is related, you will remember, to the last year, 2021 . So just one year, but there will be also a positive... Also, this year, we will have a positive impact by the Patent Box.

Bartek Kubicki
Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you very much.

Anna Maria Scaglia
Head of Investor Relations, Italgas

We see there are no further questions in the register. So, operator, are there any follow on?

Operator

There are no more questions registered at this time.

Anna Maria Scaglia
Head of Investor Relations, Italgas

Okay. So as I are, we are available for any further question that you might have. Thank you for participating, and we'll see you again soon.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.

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