Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you very much for participating in the presentation of the new business plan of Iren to 2030. I'm here with the Executive Chairman, Luca Dal Fabbro, CFO Giovanni Gazza. You're going to see in the first slide of the presentation, the distribution of the various chapters for the Investors Day. We will have a first part dedicated to the group's strategy, then action plan for the individual business units, and then a section dedicated to financials. Then at the end of the presentation, we'll be available for question and answer sessions. I leave the floor to Luca for the presentation. Thank you very much. Good evening to everybody.
Today, we met at a board of directors who approved the updated business plan at 2030, and we believe it's a very important and necessary step, because various changes have occurred on the market, the cost of money, regulatory novelties, and different situations on the market. We thought it was quite useful and efficient to update the plan in the light of all these new things and changes, and making, indeed, the business management more resilient and disciplined. You're going to hear the word discipline quite often, because we focus our attention on discipline, especially financial discipline.
Among the various changes of the plan, for sure, there is indeed a recent acquisition of Egea Group, that is perfectly fitted into our business portfolio, our offering portfolio, and allows us to become even stronger in our reference regions, including Piedmont and Liguria. Then, indeed, we are in the Cuneo area, which is a quite rich area. The other issue is a regulatory scheme. Of course, we will focus our attention on certain regulated businesses that will allow us to give a greater financial stability to our returns, revenues, and margins above all. So such a change in those scenarios requires a different allocation of investments. Facing better returns in regulated businesses, we are experiencing less visibility on returns in new renewable capacity and other activities, and greater stability in regulated businesses.
Where we see less predictability in returns, it's in the waste treatment plants, and we should consider that the acquisition of Egea in this business plan prioritize investments in organic growth with a greater intensity in regulated activities. So again, more focuses on regulated business. And indeed, concerning the slide on the capital allocation, I'd like to focus on the facts. There are two main principles. So we have, indeed, a more accurate financial disciplines and reallocation of investments. We have three main pillars: the ecological transition, which we include the development of all technologies that enable the decarbonization of energy generation sources, the recovery of materials and energy from waste, and the sustainable and conscious use of natural resources, particularly water.
The creation of value from the local areas, that is, reference regions, Piedmont, Liguria, Emilia, and Tuscany, but not only those regions, we are extending ourselves in the retail, also to other regions, and collaboration with institutions, and of course, with our economic industrial stakeholders. Of course, it was possible to develop projects supported by public and private partnerships. Also, a use of the PNRR funds, and then the quality of service. So we address essential services, such as water, gas, electric, energy distribution, therefore, the quality of service is fundamental.
Therefore, for Iren, this means a strengthened customer service and focus on improvement of infrastructure and processes, to offer higher quality, better services, a broader portfolio of services, and reducing blackouts, outages, disservices, to improve the quality of services. So we are confident about this strategy, where we indeed revise the capital allocation of the group compared to the older plan, and this is based on certain actions. I'd like to illustrate to you. First of all, we want to maintain important growth profile, although there is an overall reduction in the intensity of investment in the planned time span. So we think about priorities, including Egea, and also a cost efficiency plan.
And then maintaining current rating levels, so thanks to robust cash generation, supported by 80% of plan and certain assets, and regulated businesses, and financial flexibility. So finally, and indeed, we are supported by this new approach. We have greater visibility of our dividend policy that will be detailed later, and this is one of the new things of the revised business plan, to give greater visibility and clarity on the dividend policy, and indeed, we are different from other comparable players. And what about this slide? Fundamentally, in this slide, we just deal with some details regarding the main changes with respect to the older plan and the plan we have approved today in the board of directors meeting.
First of all, the first is continuity, concerns the refocus on investments in line with the sector developments and the latest market trends. Rationalizing and simplifying our development lines, concentrating investments in sectors deemed strategic, and reducing our commitment in those businesses were deemed marginal. And then the CapEx for the period 2024-2030 fell from EUR 9.1 billion in the previous plan to EUR 8.2 billion, 94% of which is organic. So compared to last year, inorganic investments were halved compared to last year, indeed. In fact, the overall reduction of EUR 900 million is mainly composed of lower inorganic investments of EUR 700 million. And in the first years of this plan, we have also increased the share of organic investments in network businesses, supported by a more favorable regulatory framework.
Investments in renewable technologies have been confirmed, even though, given the rising cost of realization and also the cost of money, we expect a slowdown of developments. We have also included only participation in FER X auctions or PPA underwriting, meaning a power purchase agreement. When I talk about FER X and PPA, there is a high predictability of returns over a 10-year period. These are actually partially regulated businesses, although they are not considered regulated. In renewable, we want to ensure margins, and we want to gain, through the financial structure, a greater predictability, a greater resilience and capacity to actually withstand the great changes in regulations, because we actually stabilize our revenue with FER X and PPA.
And then also some investments in the BU environment, and in particular, the development of free market plans for material recovery, to focus efforts on new opportunities, as semi-regulated through PPPs and related to plans for energy recovery from waste. So finally, so we are more focused towards those investments that are regulated or semi-regulated. And then, with regard to inorganic investments, we can state that these have a greater visibility than those included in the previous plan, as they relate to operations already concluded, Sienambiente , or at an advanced stage of finalization, Egea. The remaining inorganic operations relate to participation in tenders for the territorial extension of waste collection services. In this slide, we reallocate investments, providing a greater visibility.
So we have EUR 8.2 billion investments, cumulated from 2024 to 2030, 80% of which will be in regulated sectors, such as networks, environment, district heating and renewable generation, covered by FER X or PPAs. And then 60% is related to development projects, while 40% is for maintenance activities. This is a front-load plan, characterized by increased investment in the first four years, and then is characterized by low execution risk, high predictability of results. And also a high degree of flexibility, given the possibility of temporarily modifying the development investments, should extraordinary growth opportunities arise that are not included in the plan, and should actually need more financing. And then, EUR 600 million of flexible investments have been identified over the three-year period of 2025 to 2027.
Let's have a look at the topic of the strategy, and which are the drivers for future investments. So Iren's industrial growth strategy continues to be strongly integrated with the sustainability strategy that the group assumes in the management of all its businesses. The strategic approach, then is confirmed in five focus areas: water resources, circular economy, decarbonization, resilience, cities, and people. So over 70% of the group's total investments are eligible for the European Taxonomy, and will enable Iren to achieve its medium and long-term sustainability targets. In particular, 35% of sustainable investments are allocated for resilient cities, and in particular, in the development of district heating networks, with a 30% increase in volume and upgrading of electricity networks, as well as in energy efficiency services.
30% are focused on decarbonization, with a commitment to the development of 1.2 GW of new renewable capacity, and then, the valorization of wastes and material in order to have Iren's carbon intensity of 176 g CO₂/kWh. 20% of investments are reserved for water resources, which have always been managed with a great care in all phases of the integrated service, then with, the, reduction of network losses by 20%, which is absolutely achievable. And so Iren will become the benchmark for the Italian market. And then, we know that, we actually, need a quality resource, which is very important. And 11% of sustainable investments are reserved to circular economy, to increase sorted waste collection, and to double, compared to 2023, the volume of materials recovered through plant development.
Now, let's talk about Iren. Iren's sustainable strategy, which is transferred to all the businesses in which the group is active, allows the extension of best practices also to companies subject to acquisition. So it is important to elaborate on the strategic rationale of the Iren acquisition. Iren is an industrially sound company with high quality assets, but has recently suffered a financial crisis, especially in liquidity. It is a multi-utility, mainly operating in Piedmont, with a very diversified business structure. Indeed, a RAB of the integrated water service, gas distribution of over EUR 100 million, a catchment area of about 1 million inhabitants, where they do waste collection activities, 10 million cubic meters of district heating volumes, and over 200,000 customers to whom they supply gas and electricity.
Diversification is also present in the composition of the EBITDA, where 60% is from regulated activities and 40% are related to supply activities. There is a highly loyal customer base with a low churn rate, and I can tell you that, the area where Iren is based in Cuneo is one of the richest areas in Piedmont. So as the numbers show, Iren's turnaround is a strong strategic rationale for Iren, because it allows to accelerate the group's growth in all its businesses, so a perfect overlap. And the financial ratios of the operation have been revised, from those disclosed during the signing of the deal, to incorporate international accounting standards. So Iren, at the end of 2023, has an estimated EBITDA of EUR 55-60 million, and an estimated NFP of EUR 190 million.
So, 85 million euro cash out at the closing, and further 85 million euro estimated today for the acquisition of the remaining fifty percent that should occur between 2025 and 2029, and is currently expected to occur in 2026. It could also be earlier or later, according to how we will see the trend of the company, and we will evaluate this in the next few days. Before I leave the floor to the CFO, I'd like to conclude the first part of the presentation, giving some financial highlights. EUR 8.2 billion cumulative investments over the period 2024-30 will allow us to target an EBITDA to 2030 of around EUR 1.8 billion, with a CAGR of 6%.
The result will also be achieved thanks to a program of efficiencies and synergies that we have been pursuing for quite a long time. Today, we have further strengthened, intensified, and focused with a very concrete rationalization projects, with a detailed execution plan. Over the last 5 years, Iren has gone through a remarkable dimension of growth, 57% increase in the number of people working in the group, territorial expansion beyond the historical boundaries, and the doubling of average annual investments. We're now entering a more stable phase, where there is room for the group's operational optimization on the new dimensional scale. A consolidation phase with a group net profit that will grow at an average annual rate of 7% to reach over EUR 400 million by 2030.
The NFP/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease over the plan time period to 2.7 times by 2030. So we reduce our NFP/EBITDA ratio, and this allows us to have the financial flexibility, since the maximum threshold set is equal to 3.5 times. So this is consistent with current ratings, and this limit is also supported by the prevalence of regulated businesses in our portfolio, and we will indeed increase from current 70% to 80% EBITDA from regulated activities. And now I leave the floor to our CFO, Giovanni Gazza, to describe the details of the business plan.
Thank you very much, indeed. Before we look at the action plan for each business unit, I think it's worth presenting the overall picture of the connections between the macro trends in the sectors where we operate, and how Iren intends to address the evolution of the market. Let's start with networks. The very first item relates to variability of the water resource. It's a problem which affects us, and this has also been confirmed by the periods of drought recorded in recent years. How does Iren respond to this macro trend? Our approach involves taking care of the resource along the entire cycle, from the procurement activities to water distribution and withdrawal, and also reuse of purified water downstreams our filtering plants.
So the item relates to electrification of consumptions, a trend which will lead to a growing demand for power, and also a greater number of utilities. Here, we will respond, we will look at the plan supporting that. We will intensify and strengthen the distribution network. Third item relates to the increasing demand in networks. So there is a demand to improve also the quality of the services, as in the business plan approved in 2023. Here, we confirm ambitious targets to improve the quality of our services. It's an improvement which will be measurable. We have identified key performance indicators that we will outline in the action plan.
Turning to waste, the circular economy trend has been declined by Iren, also in previous years, into development of plans to recover materials, and also to reproduce energy from urban waste. To deploy this integrated end-to-end management vision throughout the waste cycle, it's necessary to have two factors. We need to increase the quantities, but also improve the quality of the waste we recover. Our strategy, therefore, involves a definition of an extension of collection basins, and also improving our processes. This process improvement will involve an extension of our best practices in sorted waste collection in the territories we are acquiring, and this is already visible in Southern Tuscany, for instance, where we are consolidating activities. We have been doing it since 2023, and there we are implementing a process to increase the percentage of sorted waste collection.
Continuing with the generation, we have the macro trend of energy transition. Here, our strategic vision is a combined one. On the one hand, it involves development of new renewable capacity, and on the other hand, we also have an increase and flexibilization of our thermoelectric plants. We believe and deem that, most of all in the next few years, thermoelectric plants will continue to play a very important role in efficient operations of Italian electricity system, while developing new storage capacities. Moving on to the market business unit. This business unit over the last months has been characterized by an increase in the value of customers, and there has also been an increase in competitiveness in this case. How does Iren respond?
We respond with a very solid and resilient customer portfolio, and with a sales action to reduce the churn rate, also through bundled offers, as a commodity plus services. Finally, we have some transversal factors enabling our strategy, and also our investment plan, where we have ambitious targets in this domain. I would like to highlight the digitalization macro trend. It's a transversal macro trend for all business units, and we will then outline some of our projects in this area. This effort will ensure we have increasing operating efficiency to counteract also increasing costs, which have characterized the last two years. Moving on to the next slide, slide number 13. As anticipated by Luca, the new plan envisages an increase in organic investments, most of all, in regulated businesses, in this case, the network business.
All in all, we envisage EUR 2.8 billion. EUR 2.8 billion represent 35% of the overall business plan for our group, and together with the contribution of the RAB, as the chairman rightly remembered, this also includes an Egea consolidation, about EUR 100 million in the integrated water cycle and gas distribution business. This will allow us to generate a significant growth, a growth by 60% of the RAB, which is here highlighted in the lower part of this slide on the left. Analyzing each business line, we start with integrated water service, which absorbs most investments. The business unit, where we have increased by about EUR 150 million, our investment plan.
The main projects in this business unit are aimed at upgrading the distribution network and also at increasing our water purification capacity through four new purification plants. Then there is also, in this version of the plan, a continued commitment to the districtization of the network. As you know, districtization is an action, or better, a process, which allows to identify more efficiently water leakages in the network, so as to repair the same, and this has allowed us, as a management action, to reduce, over the years, the water losses. We have now reached about 33%, and we would like to reach 20% by 2030. This is a very important target, in terms of the resource saving, and, it's something that we would really like to draw your attention to.
There are some projects in our investment plan that have been shared and acknowledged. They will be financed through the PNRR, as they relate mainly to the development of water purification plants. Electrification of consumption, of course, drives the distribution of electricity business. We have about 30% of the BU's investment in this area, and it's a business unit where we plan over the business time horizon to double the RAB by strengthening the network on the one hand, and also a construction of five new primary substations, with a target of improving the service performance. We plan to reduce the duration and the frequency of outages. Also, in this case, we envisage contributions as through public funding from the PNRR.
As to the third business line, i.e., gas distribution, the main objective here is to invest mainly in safety, therefore, to provide the whole network with cathodic protection systems. Finally, also thanks to an Egea consolidation, also in this business unit, we envisage a growth by 18% of the RAB. All in all, total investment, EUR 2.8 billion over the time horizon of the business plan, besides other growth factors, like updating, since the first of January 2024 of, tariff parameters, will it allow, a growth of the business unit by about 85%, with a CAGR of 9%, also, assuming a constant regulatory WACC over the business plan period. This business unit will also benefit in this growth, from the synergies mentioned by the chairman earlier.
We are talking about operating synergies, contributing with about EUR 30 million to the increase in EBITDA until 2030. Moving on to slide 14, we cover the waste business unit. Over the business plan time horizon, we envisage about EUR 1.6 billion investments, of which 36% will be allocated at waste collection and 64%, to the development of treatment and disposal plans. The next few years, therefore, will be oriented towards the territorial development of waste collection activities through participation in new tenders, and also thanks to consolidations in our reference territories, because, of course, this is a highly fragmented sector, but also with an opening towards national opportunities. Thanks to a geo-consolidation with about 1 million served inhabitants, we have set a target until 2030 of 5.5 million inhabitants served by Iren.
End of 2023, we were serving about 3.8 million users. The service model that we are proposing is a variable one, adapting itself to the needs of the various territories, because we think that flexibility in collection model is a rewarding competitiveness feature. So we have traditional door-to-door collection, but next to them, we also have IT-managed, more advanced collection models, which are also supporting point collection, thus catering for the need by the public administration and also by private users. Investments in treatment and disposal activities have been revised. They have been refocused, so there is increasing focus on energy recovery, where we envisage three new initiatives. A very first one relates to the fourth line of the WTE plant in Turin, so strengthening the capacity of the current one.
Then repowering of the WtE in Gioia Tauro, where we have been awarded the works. We will be project leading through a public-private partnership with Calabria region for repowering this already existing plant that has to be repowered and revamped. And this is a project which is also supported from public funds. And then there is a third plant that we envisage, a WtE plant, which would be constructed in our historical group areas to ensure that Northwest Italy is fully autonomous and independent when it comes to waste collection and waste management cycles. This refocus of investments in energy recovery can also be obtained through a slowdown and an exclusion of material recovery plans which recently have also been affected by a reduction in profitability linked to the increasing realization costs.
We will complete the six plants that we are now developing and constructing, also for innovative activities like recovery of valuable materials from WEEE and disposal of photovoltaic panels. Then a larger treatment plan, which will allow to integrate the this with the treatment inside the WTE, and also a new plant for in this area. We also envisage in the plan some initiatives to extend the landfills in areas where a depletion is underway. The approximately EUR 1.6 billion investments will allow for a EBITDA increase of about 80%, with a CAGR of 9%. This also thanks to the full contribution of margins in the plants that we are deploying.
Some of these plants are not yet in full operations, as you have seen, looking at our quarterly results, so they don't fully contribute through their full potential capacity and marginality. Also, in this case, for this business unit, part of the growth will arise from the synergies. We will have about a EUR 20 million effect of synergies. We move on to slide 15, Energy Business Unit. There, we can identify three drivers absorbing about 30% of the group's total investments that are going to decline. So about EUR 1.1 billion investments will be used to develop about 1.2 GW of new renewable capacity by 2030.
This new capacity will mainly relate to photovoltaic technologies, and as already mentioned by the chairman, it will be fully supported by participation in FER X tenders or by your subscription of the PPAs, so as to ensure stable and visible cash flows. The main objective will be to develop a greenfield capacity, which will allow us to make the most of our in-house expertise and skills developed over the last few years. But we are not excluding, of course, a possible use of acquisitions, ready to build project authorizations, so as to accelerate the grounding process of these initiatives. We also confirm, as already envisaged in the previous business plan, that we are looking for a minority financial partner, which can support us in achieving these ambitious goals for renewable energy sources. We plan that growth in photovoltaic can also come from the creation of energy communities.
We have envisaged about 60 MW until 2030, arising from these energy communities, from this scheme, and also from the sale of plants to business customers and to public administration, as we see a significant increase in demand from these two market segments. Compared to the previous plan, the development of renewables has slowed down, and this is mainly due to the increase, project implementation costs, on the one hand, most of all, BESS activities, not only, the hardware component of these plants. We are also talking, about the BESS component, and this increase does not allow perfect return, on investments, also considering our target profitability. With regard to the BESS, we are refocusing our efforts.
We are suspending investments while waiting for the regulations to be more clearly and consistently defined, so as to have a clear framework, considering the premiums envisaged for these technologies. We would like to have more visibility here. So besides the investments in renewable energy sources in photovoltaic, we plan EUR 400 million new investments in renewable energy sources from hydroelectric plants, so as to become even more efficient and to ensure the safety of the overall infrastructure that we have been managing historically with the 600 MW of installed capacity. More than half of the investments, about EUR 100 million, will support the PPP that we have submitted to the Piedmont region, which will allow renewal after completing the administration cycle of the concession for another 30 years, for about 300 MW. As...
Already mentioned, these investments in hydroelectric energy also include the repowering of pumping facilities. We have already received approvals for about 80 MW plants. These plants nowadays are not fully exploited, so through repowering, and also with a more clear regulatory scheme, we expect these plants to attain higher margins. Another EUR 400 million investments are envisaged in thermoelectric CCGT condensation plants. As mentioned earlier, we deem that this kind of plants will still play a role, looking at the adequacy and security of the overall energy system. So what do we envisage then? We envisage installation of cooling systems, aerothermal cooling systems, which allow to overcome criticalities as those we have had in the last few years, when you have water cooling plants.
We would also like to confirm, as per previous plan, the dismissal of Turbigo thermoelectric plant after 2027. Here, we also want to cross-check the market dynamics and the technology evolution. Another EUR 500 million investments will support an extension of the district heating network. As you see in this chart, the volumes for district heating will increase from 101 to 125 million cubic meters until 2030. Part of this growth, about 10 million cubic meters, relate to consolidation of Egea. And what I would like to highlight is the fact that we have a strategy, including an increase in the renewable share of thermal energy, the heat, that we would like to bring to 26% until 2030, through thermal exploitation, and also developing a diffused heat pump network, thus intercepting.
Our full capacity also in terms of WT. Many of our WT plants are located quite close to the district heating networks. In the field of energy efficiency, this is a factor where, which there has been a stop caused by regulatory changes concerning 110% bonus, the Superbonus incentives. We consider that the regulatory scheme will evolve at European level, so we are talking about regulations on greenhouse. So hopefully, in the second part of the plan, there will be development opportunities, and we have, therefore, set a target of about 600 new projects for energy efficiency.
The approximate EUR 2.5 billion investments that I have presented will allow us to target an EBITDA of about EUR 440 million, with a CAGR net of the energy scenario and the extraordinary contribution of the super bonus in 2023 for about EUR 100 million. So EUR 440 million, compared with pro forma values of 2023, lead to a CAGR of about 7% year-on-year.
Looking ahead to the evolution of the renewables production in 2027, we expect to reach 2.4 TWh , which respective value, indeed, considering photovoltaic energy, electric production, and waste-to-energy plants. So in this case, we expect, therefore, for the production of renewables from photovoltaic technology, a price above 90 EUR, and for hydroelectricity technology, above 100 EUR/MWh. And we also expect that there will be a continuous weak clean spark spread on the MGP, with a value of about, indeed, 3 EUR/MWh. And it also important, the capacity market, and the contribution is about EUR 70 million per year, at least until 2027.
Then, of course, this target will change after the decommissioning of Turbigo plants. And then moving on to slide 16 regarding the market description, we see that the sector has had an increase in competition, but also an increase in the value of customers. So we increase our investments up to EUR 700 million in the plan time span, and also through a refocusing. And considering this business unit, the refocusing, also concerning other business units as well. So in this plan, we focus the investments in our core activities. So therefore, we have not contemplated those development targets in electrical mobility. Indeed, in the previous plan, we were supposed to have an increase in the public electrical mobilities, of the development of city networks, of mobility, of public mobility.
We do not expect these in this plan, and we are refocused on the value of our customer base. And so these EUR 700 million investments, characterized by a stronger flexibility that can be modulated, and is in relation to the profitability dynamics and the churn rate dynamics. Then, what do we expect in terms of customer base? We expect an evolution from 2 million customers served in 2023 to 2.6 million customers served in 2030. And we also expect that there will be a wider retail offering both with new services and new products. We have experimented with the insurance sector. We've already 20,000 new insurance contracts that are also quite complex.
We expect to also have connectivity contracts and to guarantee, regarding this development line, about 150, actually, new contracts for 2030. As I said before, we expect a growth of the customer base from 2.2 million to 2.6 million customers, and we reach this target also thanks to the various lots of retail customers. We have one with indeed a protected market utilization with about 600,000 customers, and after winning the lots regarding the small business customers with 26,000 customers, and also managing 200,000 customers, so that is a quite important portfolio with a good resilience, with a lower churn rate compared to the metropolitan area.
So the growth of the customer base is quite visible and solid, and we announced that also in the next few months, we will reach the retail offering with PPA products, also addressed to retail customers, and these will then create synergies with our production of renewables, therefore generating a natural hedging between renewables and commercialization to end customers of these kilowatt hours. Regarding the retail strategy, we expect a reinforcing of all our digital channels and also an acceleration of our physical channels. We have seen that these physical channels bring indeed customers with a lower churn rate, so we expect to develop in 2025, 450 new sales points and corners.
We say that all of these actions will allow us to reach an EBITDA at 2030 of about EUR 240 million, and therefore with a substantial CAGR of 3%, approximately. Then moving on to slide 17. As anticipated by Luca, this slide regarding synergies, the group at the moment has reached a dimensional scale that allows us to have a reinforced target regarding synergies and efficiency. In the plan we have approved in March of 2023, we had synergies for about EUR 100 million to 2030, and today, we can indeed raise this target up to EUR 130 million. And this is also possible through the identification of projects. Over 100 performance improvement projects have been identified that will allow us to accelerate the process of implementation of these synergies.
So, out of these EUR 130 million, we believe that EUR 70 million can be reached already in 2027. So what will you do? On the right side of the slide, you see indeed, three main actions. The first action is rationalization of activities, and this is based on new specialized hubs. We have not such an organization yet through hubs, but we will also reach this through an amalgamation of our call centers, unification of call centers, and also the unification of our engineering activities. And then the second action concerns a reduction of external costs, and the third action regards other projects, mainly based on digitization.
These digitization projects concern all of our business units, and I just would like to recall you that the networks business unit, there is a prioritization of assets and for energy, a flexible management of generation plans, and with regard the environment at BU, optimization of processes, and waste collection groups. Regarding, and then slide 19, we then analyze the indeed the evolution of expected profitability in the plan period. We see that the EBITDA has an increase with a CAGR of 60% at 2030, and the net profit with a CAGR of 7%. This growth is very accelerated in the first years, and so the CAGR of EBITDA reaches 7%, and net profit, 9% CAGR.
So I like to highlight our targets to 2026, because these targets to 2026 can be overlapped with the targets we had in the previous plan. So there's a growth in EBITDA by about EUR 600 million, as you can see on the right side of the slide, is related to organic growth and to a lesser extent compared to the previous plan, to inorganic growth, the synergies, and also, of course, we have some negative factors. And these negative factors regards the decommissioning of the Turbigo plant, the energy scenario, and also the fact of the normalization of the 2023 results. In this plan, we expect with the-...
to maintain, or rather to reinforce, the contribution of regulated businesses that will reach about 80% of total EBITDA, compared to the previous forecast over 70% of the EBITDA. And going to slide number 20, that is the net debt evolution. There is an evolution of EUR 3.9 billion to EUR 4.9 billion to 2030. And whereas in the bridge of the debt, what is important is the absorption of cash deriving from the development of investment plan. And we expect that this cash absorption will be supported by the operating cash flow, and we also expect indeed accent and of course asset quotation and indeed the EUR 0.8 billion in the plan time period.
So we were referring to asset rotation, and this is part of the rigor of the financial sustainability of this plan, as reminded by the chairman. The NFP EBITDA ratio, as we see on the graph on the right, is declining, allowing us to keep this ratio not above 3.3 times, and always below 3.5. That is our maximum threshold. That is the maximum threshold, because that threshold allows us to keep the current rating parameters, triple B by S&P and Fitch. So in addition to that, I also would like to recall that we do have a financial sustainability flexibility coming from a basket of about EUR 600 million flexible investments.
We have already identified for the years 2025, 2027, so that three-year period, and those are flexible investments in case we have some disturbance effects on the maintaining of this ratio to 3.3. Slide 21. You can see the profile. The financial profile is solid, and also with a low risk. So we maintain quite important share of fixed debt, and we also have the objective to increase the average duration of the debt. At the end of the year, we estimate above 5 years.
We have already represented the dynamics of the rates on the left graph, about 2.4% of the cost of the debt in the two-year period of 2024, 2025, and about 2.6% in the remaining part of the plan time span. We also would like to maintain this high profile of financial sustainability in order to reach that to 2030, and then Luca will make the presentation of the dividend policy.
Thank you very much. We believe these assumptions to be highly predictable and highly realistic. Also, in light of the regulated business performance, we are confident to attain the targets, so the dividend policy is extended until 2027. The new dividend policy envisages a dividend responding to the maximum value between annual increase of the dividend 8% until 2027, which will be considered as a floor and a payout of 60% of ordinary net profit. So this is the great novelty talking about dividend policy of the company. In conclusion, I feel it is important to emphasize the following points that guide Iren in updating our business plan. First of all, the impact of the acquisition of Egea, which, confirming our ability to seize significant development opportunities, made up a significant part of the inorganic investment envisaged in the previous plan.
Therefore, the current plan is mainly based on organic development. Considering more cautious assumptions relating to the energy scenario and interest rates than last year, we have adopted a more selective capital allocation by favoring investments in regulated businesses and reducing the growth in renewable energy sources. Considering our financial flexibility and our asset portfolio, which will already consist in the mid-term of around 80% of regulated businesses, we are very confident of achieving the growth targets outlined. Finally, we are committed to maintaining a highly attractive dividend policy, which is, for the above reasons, fully compatible with our financial discipline, focused on maintaining our current rating levels. Very well. We can now open the floor to the Q&A. You can press star. Javier Suárez from Mediobanca, I hand over to you, Javier.
[Foreign language]. Javier, can you take the floor?
[Foreign language]. Is there a second question? We could start with the second one, then. [Foreign language]. Now we can hear you, Javier. Apologies for the inconvenience. Good afternoon. Thanks. I have a couple of questions. First is about governance. I have seen the press release of the company after business plan presentation, where you reconfirm the governance approved by the board meeting of May the seventh with an executive president and vice president. The question to you is whether you consider this governance and organizational structure to be the way it should for the next few years to execute the business plan and attain the targets, or whether we should expect appointment of a CEO supporting plan execution? And then there is a connected question about the mandate to the management team until the annual general meeting in May 2025.
Can you give us guarantees that the current management team will be responsible for the execution of the business plan until 2030? And the question about governance is very important, so I would like you to answer first. And then another question about the business plan. I have noticed that there is less CapEx. You are more selective in the approach. Talking about infrastructures, I think this is mainly also due to regulatory changes. But are there any other elements to be introduced for the network business unit to justify this reduction? Talking about waste, the EBITDA until 2030 stays the same, EUR 440 million. CapEx has been reduced significantly, and I'm wondering why the company with less CapEx can reach the same EBITDA in 2030.
For sure, there are synergies, but are there any other underlying operating assumptions which have changed? Talking about the market business unit, there has been an improvement of the business plan assumptions talking about EBITDA, 2027, 2030. Can you help us understand the reason why you now assume an improvement of the contribution from this business unit? The third question is about the Egea transaction, which is very important for the group, for complementarity, for the synergies it brings. I would like to understand from you the structure of this transaction. You have said there will be deployment in 2026, and I have heard earlier that this could be closed for the time period 2025, 2029.
What about these different timelines, and why do you take 2026 as a year of reference? Thank you. Thanks, Javier, for the exhaustive questions. They cover the whole business plan. As to your first question, the answer is, of course, we assume that the current governance is maintained as long as the majority shareholders decide to change the governance model. The current governance has already proved to be solid at performing in the last few months. Also, when the previous CEO has resigned, and when we have had the recent events affecting the last CEO, it's a governance which is working well. We have about 10 top managers, 2 executive managers, the Chairman and Vice Chairman. We don't envisage to make changes very soon. The shareholders decide if this is the case and when. But-...
Myself and the vice president have been appointed until, for a three-year term, so until end of 2025. Until that date, chairman and vice chairman will be the same, and with or without a new CEO, we will continue to implement the business plan. We would like to remind you here that we have already managed this situation with a high level of efficiency and effectiveness. This was about governance. We are fully accountable for this business plan that we will implement until the end of our three-year term, at the end of which, new managers will be appointed, and then we will see how to move forward. As to your question about the assets, the gas assets, we have been talking about gas tenders. They have experienced a slowdown, and this has an impact.
You're right in noticing that there are less investments in gas assets, also due to the delay, to the postponement of tenders, which doesn't mean we are not interested in this sector. As to waste, the CapEx are decreasing, EBITDA is constant. You should consider here that the plants we have completed in the last two years still need to reach ideal efficiency. This will require time, and this time will allow us with the same CapEx, to reach the EBITDA that we have as a target in our business plan. The last three to four plants are not under full swing, they are not fully efficient, and they don't contribute fully to the margins. So we will improve the efficiency in the operations of these plants. The fourth question: why is the market producing significant margins, and it continues to do so?
There are some novelties. We have been awarded orders in several tenders, in the protected market. This customer portfolio that we have bought at very reasonable prices allow us to have a synergy with the current portfolio. These synergies mean saving on costs, with the same effort, and also an increase of about 500,000 customers. So this is a very important synergy, volume-wise, and if we have larger volumes, so the effort will be the same, hence, we will have a higher margin. As to Egea, Egea is a very important transaction, both from a strategic point of view, as we have already said, and also from a financial standpoint. As to the timing, as I have already mentioned, we will consider in the next six months, is whether and when to trigger. Of course, we have to wait for the approval by the court.
We shouldn't take this approval by the court for granted. It should take place by end of June. If this is the case, then we plan to do the closing of the first part of the transaction, with acquisition of 50%, EUR 85 million cash out until August 2024, after which, from 2025 onwards, we reserve the right to exercise our call option, take over the other 50%, depending on the results that this can bring. In the next few days, we'll see how the company is moving forward. In the next few days, we will be able to decide whether to proceed and how to do so. So it's a decision we might take pretty soon, depending on Egea's result that we are examining right now.
Thank you very much. Then, next question from Stefano Gamberini, from Equita. Yes, good evening, everybody. The same situation as Roberto for this call. I'd like to ask a few things. First of all, the topic of authorization. So EUR 4.9 billion CapEx at 2027, where are the authorization, especially for the waste? Because regarding that, you might have some postponement or some upgrading that usually are subject to postponement. So can you tell us how much is the CapEx from here to 2027? And again, in the waste BU, so the slide, page 14, we pass it from EUR 70 million to EUR 120 million EBITDA, and, for the waste collection. So why so much? So such a big increase. Is there anything visible?
Are there tenders we have already won or that we will have to win? And the other topic regarding generation, for the following slide, a couple of things that, that are important to me. First of all, at 2027, there are about EUR 85 million EBITDA in renewables, but only 400 MW new capacity. So why is there such an important increase, and what is the baseline you have regarding the solar panels to actually bring these 400 MW from now to 2027? And the other one is regarding district heating. What is the solution? Is it just a regulated business? Because from 2025, it will become regulated. What about the risk? It's already 80%. Have you already made this assumption?
Then the question is the opposite, EUR 500 million EBITDA CapEx in seven years, and an EBITDA that goes up only by EUR 25 million. So it is a 15x multiple. Why such a low remuneration for a business that should also be regulated? And the last two questions, if I may, topic of EUR 800 million capital injection in this mission. What is by 2027 to be, should be decommissioned afterwards? So I think that the capital injection that is expected to come for renewables will come afterwards, like 20% before 2027. Where will we have the peak in the leverage of the 2.1-2.3 by 2027? So how much is this contribution?
And finally, if it's possible to have an idea or an update on the targets of 2024, you have underlined that we are facing indeed a front load business plan for the growth of the EBITDA. So can you tell us whether we might have some surprises right in the year 2024? Thank you, and sorry for the many questions. Well, let's start with the first question, that is the visibility of authorization on CapEx in the environmental WtE. At 27 the investment share has already been authorized. Because of the part we were actually mentioned regarding the WtE development is more in the second part, because there is a pathway of design and implementation requiring more years. So of that concerns the CapEx for this first plan.
Part of the plan is, material recovery part, they're all authorized. Also for the plant in La Spezia, that has a contribution from PNRR, so the resilience plan. The second question regarding the increase in EBITDA for waste collection. So regarding waste collection, we have both a development of those 3.8-5.5 customer base, the consolidation of Egea activities, and also the recovery of inflation. So the mechanism, the tariff mechanism of the waste collection contemplates an adjustment, a deferred adjustment of 2 years. So this increase in the EBITDA is correlated also to the tariff recovery, characterizing both networks and also the environment business unit as a regulated business.
We also have these development activities of waste collection, sorted waste collection. That is, of course, an activity with a greater value added. Regarding district heating, within the EUR 100 million, we have mentioned as a pro forma of the result of 2023, there is also a portion allocated to the margin of district heating in 2023, in electric energy, and also the margin of district heating that was characterized by indeed a margin above the standard profitability. And this extra margin was also related to the hedging we had made in advance that allowed us to have this type of dynamics. So if we compare the values, of course, these values do not perfectly reconcile.
District heating is a business that we considered almost regulated, and it was also considered as such, also by rating companies. Starting from last year, as you may remember, the business is considered fully regulated, so within the 80% of our target, and the same as within 70% of the current share of a regulated or semi-regulated business. We expect, substantially, that the evolution of the new pricing mechanism will reinforce this characterization, starting from 2025, with the start of the new regulation. Regarding, so the last question was about the cashing from asset rotation and operation of a financial nature.
We expect that of about within 2027, a contribution of EUR 250-300 million of the overall EUR 800 million expected. So the other question concerned generation BU, and therefore the 400 MW. Yes, I noted down, but I forgot it. So the 400 MW at 2027. We have a pipeline of 1 GW, 1.2 GW. So we have an important pipeline that is made of projects about to be authorized, the Greenfield, and also other initiatives. Yes, just to say that we have about 50 MW already authorized that we are acquiring, and we already have almost ready to build additional 80 MW to rate in 2024.
So to rate 400 MW in 2027 is absolutely achievable, considering about last year, we grew by about 200 MW with installations. So we don't see any spatial problems in a 400 MW by 2027, considering the assumptions I've just mentioned. The last question was on the 2024 target. We presented a guide during Egea Group report. We have an EBITDA of EUR 1,230 million-EUR 1,240 million, and now also thanks to greater contribution, we are in the higher part of range. Regarding the EBITDA, with regard to the ratio NFP, EBITDA, we confirm 3.23.
We had announced at the time with an overall CapEx of about EUR 1 billion, including the cash out of EUR 85 million for the acquisition of 50% of Egea. Two short follow-ups. This regarding the renewables from EUR 65 million to EUR 160 million. So this EUR 85 million euros increase in three years, just with these 400 MW from solar panels. What is the assumption you have made? And the second one, do you have any sensitivity on the EUR 10 per MWh for the price of 100 basis points of a lesser WACC in the regulated business? Do you think there is a certain sensitivity regarding the targets at 2027? Yes.
Well, regarding the margins of renewables, of course, an impact comes also from hydraulic electricity, because the comparison is with 2023, we have a price effect. As we were recalling, we made an assumption that we're at about EUR 100 per MWh, regarding hydroelectric, and about EUR 90 for photovoltaic. So we are moving within this range of scenario, and therefore, the component is a positive component from an increase in normalization of production.
And with regard to the assessment of the regulatory parameters, we say that we expect... We have expected an assumption of continuity of the current remuneration of invested capital, and we have also made a sensitivity regarding the dynamics in a worst case scenario. We estimate a worsening of about 20-30 basis points. The estimate is about EUR 4 million every 10 basis points of WACC. Have we answered? Great. Next question, Emmanuel Madoni, Kepler Cheuvreux. You have the floor.
Good evening. Thanks for the presentation. I have some questions. First one is a follow-up question on the networks and the regulated part, the regulatory KPIs. You have illustrated the sensitivity concerning the WACC. Maybe I have missed something. What about the assumptions of the deflator along the timeline of the business plan, most especially in the first years until 2027? So deflator on the WACC. I haven't understood your WACC assumptions. Then a question about generation.... Can you provide us an update on the hedging for 2025? Has the hedging increased? What level? What about the volumes and pricing of that?
Then I have seen that in the assumption along the timeline of the business plan, you maintain a reference of about EUR 100 a year or so, less than that per megawatt hour, despite the growing trend for renewable energy sources, and most of all, for photovoltaic, which, on the contrary, should lead to a constant, a gradual reduction in the next few years, of the PUN, the average single domestic price in Italy. Also from this point of view, I would like to ask you, always referring to the 400 additional megawatts until 2027, I would like to ask you about your pipeline and your expected development, despite the reduction versus previous plan, which is good, but there is still a significant development of renewables, and most especially, relating to photovoltaic energy. Why do you plan this growth?
Why do you rely so much on this technology, which involves lower CapEx, but in absence of significant investments in battery systems, in storage capacity, it also involves realized prices that are, on average, lower than the prices relating to the PUN, to the single national price, most of all in certain time brackets. So I don't consider this as a quality investment in renewable energy sources. I have been impressed, on the contrary, talking about renewable energy sources, the hydroelectric part. I would like to get a better understanding, maybe I have missed something, that in the business plan, despite the fact that you don't have full visibility on renewal of concessions, you have anyway included some CapEx. You... Can you please repeat that?
For repowering 330 megawatts of electricity, which should be more or less of the capacity that has already expired, the concession for Iren. So since there is not yet visibility on the renewal of concessions, unfortunately, I would like to understand when you had included in the plan this CapEx of 330 megawatts. And then, if I may, there's a question about the visibility on the synergies and on the cost cutting in relation to the efficiency plan, which is very important and very challenging, considering the cost base. Can you provide us with an idea of the delivery timeline for this plan, most of all in the first few years?
So what about 2025, with the interventions you are going to deploy, with the actions that you start implementing later this year, what could be in 2025 or 2026, the benefit in terms of lower costs and of improving EBITDA? I have more questions, but let me just stop here. Okay, first question was about the assumptions on the deflator. We have assumed a deflator of 4, with a factor of 4%-5% for 2025 to 2026. In the other years of the business plan, we have aligned the deflator to the assumption that we have an inflation, i.e., 2%. This is the underlying assumption, looking at the evolution of the RAB, of the regulatory asset base.
As to generation, most especially the hedging that we have implemented in renewable energy sources until 2025, we have about 60% of production in renewables, so that is already hedged at 105 EUR per MWh. Let me just clarify something here. Thanks for asking me. The assumption for the PUN, for the renewable energy sources, we have differentiated the two technologies. Our assumption and our view is to have about 100 EUR per MWh for hydroelectric technology. We know that this is color and modular technology, where we have peak prices. Therefore, we have assumed this alignment to the PUN, to the national domestic price. As to photovoltaic technology, our assumption is about 90 EUR per MWh. We have considered the differential here.
As you know, already today, we have a market differential. In this case, we consider this view to be pretty conservative, because the price defined in the preliminary draft of the regulation on renewable energy sources, and this is 85 EUR per megawatt hour, and there is also a correction factor, which might lead the price to 95 EUR per megawatt hour. This is important, because anyway an important share in the pipeline, and an important share of our development targets, is located in Northern Italy. We are consolidating the efforts. As you have seen, there has been a market consolidation, so we have a favorable differential here, looking at the plans in Northern Italy. So the capture PUN, most of all in Northern Italy, as compared to the other Italian regions.
As far as the strategic rationale for relying still on renewable energy sources, we deem that the energy transition requires a combined approach, development of renewable energy sources in parallel with repowering and more flexibility of a thermoelectric plants. Our group is very keen on attaining the target we had set, i.e., providing our customers internally with renewable energy. We will do that only if we have the satisfactory profitability criteria, as we said in this sector. We will be very cautious and highly selective when it comes to taking actions. We have set, anyway, a very important target here, because we consider this sector to have to be reaching the great opportunities, also thanks to new provisions for renewable energy sources.
As to your question about hydroelectric CapEx, EUR 400 million in total, about EUR 200 million relate to expired concessions, and they are included in the PPP. So the public-private partnership that we have submitted to Piedmont region, when the PPP will have completed its approval process, so we cannot include them in the shorter term. They have to be considered in the mid to longer term. As far as visibility on the synergies is concerned, so a EUR 130 million increase between 2023 and 2030, there we have a very ambitious plan, and I think, it's realistic, it's attainable, because we have already identified performance improvement projects, which will allow us, to have a decreasing contribution, about EUR 20-30 million in 2025, and then a gradual growth to reach a EUR 60 million in 2026, and about EUR 70 in 2027.
This is really supported. We might get into the detail of the single initiatives, but let's say that it's also credible, considering what we have already achieved in the past, with about EUR 150 million in the period between 2018-2023. I have a remark about quality of the assets we are installing, most of all with reference to solar energy. The quality of the solar assets is very central to us. They are exposed to the free market, and also to the FER X tenders. If you can securitize part of the margins and revenues with FER X tenders, they become a semi-regulated assets. Then, if you add the fact that in the next few years, there will be the option to install BESS batteries, these assets could become, as it has been...
as it could be for thermoelectric assets, assets with a higher value. When you install solar capacity, you buy an option to optimize and enhance the value of these assets in the future. So I think installing photovoltaic panels is still a good business. As you have noticed, we have reduced the volumes because we don't want any overexposures. We just want some exposure. I fully agree with those who think that solar is still good business because it gives you the opportunity to securitize with PPA and FER X agreement, and to buy free of charge a future option for the BESS. And taking part in electric services with batteries, once the market is mature on the battery side. Very clear. If I may, can you quantify until 2027, it can be estimate...
Can you estimate you can realize about EUR 65-70 million of the EUR 130 million savings, so 50% of the expected saving? That's correct. Yes, of course. EUR 60 million in 2026, and about EUR 70 million in 2027. This is our plan. Right. And a very last question about the market business unit. The 2.6 million customer target that you have confirmed-
...In this case, I seem to be pretty cautious because we have a change in the perimeter. I don't know whether the previous plan version had included the change in perimeter. We now have 200,000 additional customers, thanks to the Egea transaction, and then we also know you have been awarded about 300,000 customers in the tenders for the end of the more protected market. Even if there could be a higher turnover, higher than the average, higher than the average free market for these acquired, newly acquired 300,000 customers. So this would then lead to a higher target than the starting point. So can you please expand on that? Yes, the results of the churn rate, you should also consider that the market is moving. New customers are acquired, the old customers are lost.
We want to be cautious in our assumptions. The contentment of customers will increase also because once more highly protected customers access the free market, there you have stronger competition among players. Let me just give you an example. If an operator loses in the target territory, highly protected customers, the player would like to reacquire them, so there will be sales actions that are not really predictable, and the churn rate could increase. So this is the reason why we wanted to be cautious. I fully understand with you that looking at customers, there might be some good news in the future. It's possible that these figures are revised upwards. Thank you.
[Foreign language]. Next question from Davide Candella, from Intesa Sanpaolo. Please, Davide. Good evening, and thank you for the presentation. I have three questions. The first question, starting from the last aspect regarding the market and customers. In the light of the increased competitiveness, you are expecting also after the tenders and before the tenders, what are your indeed issues regarding marginality? I believe there is also pressure on the margins, also, especially regarding the second part of the plan, I say there's more on the gas and less on the electricity. So what are your solutions, and what are the expectations regarding the electricity? Is there an effect of greater volumes regarding what you have mentioned in the presentation? Then the second question, regarding energy and in relation to the hedging strategy.
I wonder whether in the light of the research for greater visibility for renewables and RECs, the hedging approach regarding the market unit changes and whether. In case this is the case, so if it's so, how is this more complicated or more simplified with respect to the hedging approach? Finally, last question related to the debt. So you did not mention a topic that is of the working capital or of the scenario effect on the debt. Can you give us some more details on this? Whether in the plan or time span, is there any managerial initiatives with that to contain certain swings that we have seen, and that we may not see in the next years?
I will answer the first two questions, and Giovanni will answer the last question. Regarding the market and the marginality of the market, well, first of all, we have acquired the portfolio of a protected business at a competitive, interesting value, partly lower compared to our competitor. And second, we will do synergies with dual, trio offering, offering synergies. So we will then give value to a customer, so twice or three times we sell energy, gas, electricity, and insurance. So we rely on a dual offering as one of the most important elements, so we will get more value from the acquired customers. So not single commodity, but dual commodity plus services. So we believe we will indeed increase the margins and create more margins.
So regarding the hedging strategy, nothing will change. This is very prudential with respect to the market. We do very little trading compared to other operators, and this means that lesser trading margin, because we do very little trading, but also even zero risks for trading. So we are risk averse with regard to this, and hedging can only be improved with FER X and PPAs, and not reduced. And that would be a natural hedging, because whereas the trading hedging is made with position swap, having... Since we have FER X and PPAs, we cover customers' needs by PPAs from our plants and from other plants as well, or selling FER X at a consolidated price for ten years.
So we will still have a conservative hedging, and nothing will change regarding the net working capital we had announced in a deterioration of EUR 60 million-EUR 80 million compared to the data at 31 December 2023 in relation to the energy scenario. Our assumption on this is to keep this worsening until 2030. At the moment, we do not include improvements with respect to the guidance we have given you on 2024. We could say that these dynamics of net working capital in relation to indeed a commercialization on the electric energy exchange this could change also in relation to new markets. FER X will have an effect on transactions, but at the moment, we have not including upsides regarding the net working capital. Thank you. Very good, we have time for the final follow-up. Please, then actually do it, and start.
[Foreign language]. F ollow-up from Stefano Gamberini. Please, the floor to you, Stefano. Thank you, Giulia. high? So the RAB, because 2023, 2024, you had 5.9, 5.4, electricity and gas, and then the trend is towards a decrease. Also, here, what is the visibility on the trend of this EBITDA that increases by 12% as an average per year to 2027? That is quite significant for a regulated business where network distribution and water is still the most valued part.
Last thing, I'd like to understand why are you still interested in the gas part, considering that the gas part may be less interesting compared to these two businesses that has quite interesting and higher multiples paid by the market? So what is the risk of the divestiture of EUR 590 million? And another thing, Giovanni, I wanted to understand. I go back to my topic of the district heating, because out of EUR 500 million investments, the EBITDA increases only by EUR 13 million in the period 2023-2030. So I don't understand the returns and the assumptions you have made. So, at slide 15, from 110-145, with a difference of 35, apart from the EUR 100 million scenario.
In fact, if I invest EUR 100 million, EUR 500 million, I would have expected a higher growth, maybe before. I did not express my question quite well. Yes, thank you for this, because I'd like to specify that the value I have indicated to deflator was an average value, including also 2024. Our assumption, substantially, is that the deflator is not so much related to the inflation index, but to the cost, the index cost of realization of investment. So we believe that it could have this dynamics on the updating of the RAB.
Whereas regarding the topic of the district heating, we also have another factor, that is the one we have included in this plan, meaning a more conservative approach under the point of view of the scenario, because as a matter of fact, district heating prices are related to the gas dynamics. So there is a component related to PSV, and therefore, with respect to the dynamics of 2023, there is a scenario effect, but there is a scenario effect that has an effect also on the distribution component. So therefore, we may say that the scenario effect is not only on the variable part, but also on the component of the distribution. The other aspect is related to a conservative approach to consumptions, and therefore, also such an important development of volumes.
So this does not correspond to any increase of the heat volumes distributed, because essentially, we see a better efficiency on the part of customers in managing district heating in their households. So there are several components indeed that make these marginality more contained compared to the previous period. So this is a business area for which we will pay much attention, because we have certain targets of profitability, which are quite important. And therefore, any new initiative will be assessed based on the evolution also of the pricing regime, because these could generate upsides through the recognition of a remuneration, a guaranteed remuneration, of invested capital.
So right now, this is indeed a measure providing for a cap, so we do not have indeed visibility of a pricing measure comparable to networks. We just have a cap, so in our plan, we have not included yet the standard remuneration of a RAB-based system, such as the one of the networks. So I understand well, so from 25, in this mixed system, you see an upside, not a downside?
Well, we could expect an upside, but of course, this is a quite special regulation, because there could also be a RAB-based mechanism. But then, as a matter of fact, the mechanism is within a market sector, and therefore, with contracts with end customers, that needed to be managed, and we need to understand the implementation of this measure in relation to the fact that there is a contract with individual customers. So as of today, we have assumed that there should be the existence of a cap, and our prices are below this cap, but that has been fixed with the remuneration of invested capital, cost components, and all the other pricing components.
So we have maintained in this plan, a variation of the price of district heating, based on the gas dynamics. And therefore, being conservative on the gas energy scenario, determining the... Being conservative also in the district heating dynamics. [Foreign language]. I realize it's a bit complex to explain this mechanism. There is a consultation paper right now. Hopefully, this consultation paper will further clarify the mechanism starting from January the first, 2025. Thank you.
There are no more questions. I would like to thank you all for taking part in this call, and I hand over to the chairman for some closing remarks. I would like to thank you very much for your participation and questions. We have hopefully answered to all of your questions. We are more than confident that this is a sound, attainable business plan in the wake of continuity. We have cut off some dry branches, and we have focused on more thriving branches. We are fully aligned and focused, and highly motivated, top managers. We are glad to share this business plan. We are already working on it, and you will soon... You will see some results pretty soon. Thank you, and have a very nice evening.