Iren SpA (BIT:IRE)
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Mar 28, 2024

Operator

Good afternoon. Welcome to FY 2023 conference. My name is Zach. I will be your operator for today's event. For the duration of the call, your lines will only be in listening mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end or during the conference. You can book your intervention at any time by selecting star one on your device's keypad or keyboard. If you need any assistance during the call, you can select star zero on your phone keypad, and you will be contacted by an operator. I will now pass the floor to your host, Giulio Domma, head of investor relations, to begin today's conference. Thank you very much, and have a good listen.

Giulio Domma
Head of Investor Relations, Iren

Good afternoon. Thanks for connecting to the call to present the full year 2023 Iren results. The results will be presented by Executive Chairman Luca Dal Fabro and CFO Giovanni Gazza.

At the end of the presentation, there will be the usual Q&A session. I will now leave it to Luca to present the results.

Luca Dal Fabbro
Executive Chairman, Iren

Good afternoon. The board of directors has approved today 2023 results, which show an EBITDA that is growing significantly, exceeding expectations and guidance given in November 2023. Importantly, EBITDA growth by 14% to about EUR 1.2 billion was supported by the recovery and increased profitability of the market business unit, thanks to the effective commercial strategy as well as an increased contribution from hydroelectric generation, partly due to an increase in production volumes. Leverage was kept under control, below the 3.3 factor of the guidance. Results achieved thanks to the positive cash generation and actions to optimize the net working capital.

Investments almost reached EUR 1 billion, of which more than 65% was allocated to regulated and semi-regulated activities, including in particular the development of water and electricity grids in the waste business unit, not to mention the development of new renewable capacity for about 50 megawatts in 2023. Finally, we feel it appropriate to share the value generated in the year with our shareholders by proposing a dividend of EUR 11.88 per share to the shareholders' meeting, up 8% from the dividend paid out last year, with a payout of about 60%. Moving on to page 3, we present the ESG indicators, i.e., our sustainability performance.

Let's look at the key performance indicators in ESG, showing that the group in 2023 continued its path of sustainable growth defined in the business plan, with several indicators ahead of the set targets, thanks in part to about 80% of investments made with a sustainability profile. Regarding the green transition, for instance, at the end of 2023, Iren has exceeded 71% separate waste collection in its historical territories, increasing by 12% matter recovered in its waste treatment plants, keeping its carbon intensity essentially constant as envisaged in the business plan. During the year, Iren's presence on the territory was strengthened through the increase in the number of municipalities where we are active in waste collection and the extension of district heating and increase in the number of inhabitants served by integrated water services.

Also, in terms of service quality, the year has ended allowing for 15% growth in renewable energy sold to customers, achievement of 69% of the district water network, which has allowed to reduce water losses by 30%, which is still quite a lot. There's still room for improvement and to save about 5.6 million cubic meters of water in one year, which is a great achievement. Next slide. Transitional business profitability in a tough environment. If we look at this slide, we see the main economic and financial indicators in the period. Ordinary EBITDA amounted to about EUR 1.2 billion, reporting a growth by 13.7% over previous years, despite the difficult year characterized by lower energy scenarios compared to exceptional levels last year due to the Russia-Ukraine war and to persistent inflationary pressure leading to a major increase in operating costs.

Positive factors in the period include profitability of the market business unit, which, thanks to an effective sales campaign, not only recovered the full portfolio value but also increased its margins. A key contribution from Hydropower, due to higher prices realized due to hedging implemented ahead of 2022 and higher volumes produced, plus 42%. Full contribution of integrated companies as Sei Toscana, which contributes with EUR 16 million, and AcquaEnna, a Sicilian water company in the province of Enna, which reported an EBITDA of EUR 7 million in the period. So not bad, I would say. On the other hand, there are negative elements that have characterized the period. We don't want to conceal anything. We want to inform you about positive and negative developments alike.

Persistent increase in operating costs due to the macroeconomic environment and inflation and oil prices, if you also at private level, which have increased at least EUR 40 million, reducing the margins associated with organic growth, most of all in regulated businesses. Halving of the MSD margin from EUR 63 million last year to EUR 31 million in 2023, and an energy scenario with decreasing prices that has disfavored unhedged electricity production, and then loss of full availability of waste treatment facilities for maintenance activities. EBIT is in line with previous year due to a provision for risks related to the price cap on renewable energy introduced in 2022 by the Italian government, estimated at EUR 41 million plus a higher amortization. Despite significant technical investments to support the group's future growth, it was possible to maintain a net financial debt in line with the guidance.

That's our polestar, thanks to thorough management of working capital. It's our obsession, also including credits related to Superbonus. I now hand over to Giovanni, to our CFO.

Giovanni Gazza
CFO, Iren

Thank you, Luca. Good afternoon to all of you. We start looking at the results of each business unit, starting with the networks for you on slide five. Excluding non-recurring items that had positively impacted last year by about EUR 70 million and mainly related to tariff adjustments, and the recognition of past green certificates, ordinary EBITDA is down by 2%, mainly due to the persistent inflationary scenario that you were mentioning, Luca, that increased operating costs by almost EUR 2 million. As you know, also in what happened at the end of the year, there's increases recovered in tariff revenues as early as 2024. Through updated regulatory parameters, there was organic growth of about EUR 100 million, plus 8% over 2022, is achieved thanks to significant investments made in the past years, allowing for an increase in, indeed, adjusted revenues of about EUR 22 million over last year.

Investments continued in line with the development of the business plan, +9% respective previous year, and they were related to efficiency and upgrading of electricity grid networks and also the development of the integrated water service infrastructures. These investments also resulted in a significant improvement in service quality, both as water, indeed, network leakages and also regarding electricity grid outages. Finally, as you may recall, at the end of May 2023, the group acquired an additional shareholding, obtaining the majority and consolidation of AcquaEnna, which manages an integrated water cycle in the Sicilian province, contributing to an increase in EBITDA of about EUR 7 million. Slide six.

We see that the environmental BU, in which we see the positive impact for the waste, indeed, business unit and an organic growth and collection, as I said, been penalized by the worst managing scenario and the incomplete availability of plants leading to a 7% decline in EBITDA versus 2022. The waste collection business, in fact, grew by about +EUR 10 million, thanks to the successful integration of Sei Toscana, although inflation also had, indeed, a negative impact of about EUR 10 million in the sector. On the other hand, the treatment and disposal waste management business unit reported a negative performance due to lower emergence of heat generated by waste to energy, lower availability of sewer treatment plants as a result of maintenance activities, extraordinary maintenance activity, and the lower contribution of landfills compared to last year due to the gradual depletion of their capacity.

The results are also affected by the reduction in the volumes of special waste treated, which fell by 6% compared to the previous year. As far as investments are concerned, these continued during 2023, in line with our industrial plan and are up by about 5% compared to last year, mainly allocated to waste collection activities for the transformation development of differentiated collection systems as door-to-door collection and also material selection recovery plants. We also had the realization of waste treatment plants, specifically a wood treatment plant in Vercelli that is a treatment of wood for the production of pallets. Then we also have a FORSU plant in Santhià that entered into being fully operating last month, and these were positively contributed to the result of the business unit during 2024 and even more in 2025.

Then on page 7, we see the dynamics that led the energy BU to reach an EBITDA of EUR 374 million, up +7% from the previous year. And turning to the analysis by business areas, renewables, hydro, and solar recorded a positive result of +EUR 52 million compared to last year, mainly thanks to higher hydro volumes, +320 GWh, related to, indeed, the normalization of hydraulicity and effective hedging strategy that was implemented in advance of 2022. So that hedging strategy was really effective, and this made it possible to contain the negative effect of the downward trend in prices of, indeed, electric energy. The hydropower result was partly reduced to higher regional hydropower fees that, indeed, resulted in a +EUR 18 million compared to the previous year.

Instead, photovoltaic capacity in operation has grown by more than 50 MW over last year and reached a total of about 100 MW in operation at the end of 2023. Regarding heat, in 2022, the result had been penalized by about EUR 33 million by the unexpected shift of the gas index from P4 to PSV, generating a non-recurring negative effect on outstanding derivatives for EUR 33 million. So during 2023, there has been a recovery in unit marginality net of P4 offset by lower volumes sold during the first quarter of 2023. So there's lower volumes were determined both by milder temperatures compared to 2022 and also energy-saving actions, indeed, resulting from, indeed, more expensive bills that had an effect on sales.

And then CCGT and thermoelectric plants have suffered in line with national dynamics from lower demand and margins in the MSD market, which amounted to a total of EUR 31 million -50% compared to 2022. The negative result was only partially offset on the thermoelectric BU by a higher clean spark spread captured thanks to hedging policies and higher thermoelectric production thanks to the full availability of the Turbigo power plant that in 2022 had been broken for a long period. Finally, activities related to energy efficiency reported a shrinking result due to the reduction in the margin of renovation work essentially related to the Superbonus, and that decreased compared to 2022.

Then considering the last BU market, you see this is immediately visible from the graph on the left, how the result is related to the recovery of the full value of the electric customer portfolio, which in 2022 had greatly suffered from the volatility of the energy scenario and regulatory measures on the higher prices charged on the bills. This result was made possible by adjusting the business strategy to current market conditions in which variable price contracts had become prevalent compared to those with a fixed rate. Also the composition of tariffs is a greater fixed-rate component. The customer base has remained stable. Today, the portfolio has nearly 2.2 million customers with a predominance of electric customers. Electricity volumes sold are down due to the group's strategic decision to reduce exposure to business customers and focus mainly on retail customers.

In addition, in both electricity and gas commodities, cost-saving actions have occurred, resulting in lower sales volumes. Finally, the decline in the profitability of the products and service business unit that is called the Iren Plus BU can be attributed mainly to the loss of government incentives on energy efficiency-related products, which has significantly reduced this market. On page nine, you can examine the elements that led to the group's net income, depreciation, and amortization increase by EUR 80 million as a result of the integration. And you see there's increase by EUR 80 million with the result of the integration of Sei Toscana and AcquaEnna, but also thanks to investments that became fully operating 2023. The item other provisions and write-downs include the provision of EUR 41 million related to the price cap on renewables introduced by the Italian government in 2022.

On this topic, we can say that we're waiting for the European Court of Justice to rule on the merits in the second part of the year. The cost of the debt stands at 1.8%, slightly up from the previous year while remaining at a low level. And then you see that the higher charges related to debt expansion, the tax rate is confirmed at 25.6%, and it's lower than the theoretical value thanks to the non-taxability of tax credits for energy companies introduced in 2023. And these are guaranteed as contributions amounting to EUR 38.6 million. So the group net income for the period amounts to EUR 255 million, up 38% from last year.

With regard to the evolution of the net financial position during the year, slide 10, we observe that the net debt is basically unchanged compared to the value of the first nine months with an increase of EUR 585 million compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to investments, very important investments also in 2023, and to tax credits related to the 110% Superbonus works. The increase in debt is aligned with the growth in the group's operating results, which has made it possible to maintain the NFP/EBITDA ratio at around 3.3, in line with the financial sustainability objectives defined in the plan, indeed, in the various updating of our industrial plans. Indeed, the containment of debt was possible thanks to the increase in EBITDA, the optimization of network and capital, and indeed also with a change in hydro service.

This was due thanks to tariffs higher to the cap value and also the change from tax to fee for waste collection service. The works amounting to, indeed, nearly EUR 380 million related to energy efficiency supported by government. There's where we reduce, there's, indeed, the stock of tax credits. We believe we have in this investment base, financial entities. Now I leave the floor to Luca.

Luca Dal Fabbro
Executive Chairman, Iren

Thank you very much. Indeed, in 2023, despite the exogenous challenges we faced, we managed to improve the guidance thanks in part to the effectiveness and resilience of our business model. I think it's worth highlighting the achievement of the goal in terms of a net financial position EBITDA ratio with about 3.3, even without the contribution from the sale of minority staking gas distribution networks.

The transaction is halted because the rationale, particularly the uncertainty regarding tenders underlying this activity, has disappeared. More details will be provided in the revised plan that we will present in June. We have a positive outlook on 2023, where despite a negative impact from the persistent bearish energy scenario that reduces the prices of unhedged generation volumes and heat marginality, we expect sustained growth from profitability of regulated businesses, at least EUR 70 million from tariff review, and further increasing commercial margins. So these dynamics will enable the group to achieve a 2024 EBITDA in the range between EUR 1,220 million-EUR 1,230 million. Investments will continue to be in line with the business plan, and the year just ended, and will amount to EUR 1 billion allocated mainly to an efficiency of the distribution networks and development of the waste chain.

This will bring us to an NFP/EBITDA ratio of about 3.3 at a constant perimeter. Should negotiations for the acquisition of Egea's business units currently being finalized be successfully concluded, then the ratio could settle in a range of 3.4, which is still fully in line with our guidance. On the subject, we would like to add that the signing is expected soon following the acceptance of the refurbishment plan and then the closing of the transaction, whereby we will acquire a 50% share of the company's operating divisions, but we will not consolidate. Consolidation in the next few years could be an option through the exercise of a call option. Now we open the floor to the Q&A. We will be glad to answer any questions. Giovanni and myself would like to thank you for your attention. Thank you very much.

Operator

First question, Roberto Letizia from Equita.

Roberto Letizia
Senior Sell Side Research Analyst, Equita

Good afternoon. Thanks for your presentation. I would like to dwell upon the debt in the guidance. I would like to understand what the guidance includes in terms of potential M&As of purchase and sale in 2024, and if you can explore the M&A opportunities for current year, and if you can share your expectations about net working capital after tax credit cessation for the 110% Superbonus, the expectations in terms of underlying dynamics. And I would also like to ask an additional focus on the waste business, which has shrunk in 2023. What are the expected drivers in 2024? What was the impact of a facility unavailability due to maintenance works? So what is the expected contribution from new facilities?

In the context of this explanation, why, in your opinion, are special waste volumes decreasing, and what do you expect for 2024? A quick question about the very low tax rate. I'm wondering whether also in 2024 you expect such a tax benefit. Then a snapshot on the retail business, which has grown the most. I would like to ask you whether the signals from the market confirm the opportunity that you can retain profitability, or if there is an increasing churn rate and there are discounts granted to customers with the reduction in the integrated margin. A snapshot of the evolution of the retail margin in the first quarters of the year.

Luca Dal Fabbro
Executive Chairman, Iren

Thank you very much. Let me just ask the first and last question. Giovanni will then answer to the other questions.

M&A opportunities in 2024 net of Egea, which is an opportunity we have to sign within the short term. We are now looking at some businesses, most of all in photovoltaic, i.e., companies that are owners of photovoltaic plants. There are a couple of companies we are considering in the field of waste, and we are thoroughly monitoring all that is on the market in the field of water. This is just a scouting. So there is no final decision yet, except for some due diligence activities on photovoltaic plants. These were M&A for the retail business. Last question. As you know, we have acquired, thanks to ARERA tenders, some important areas. Most notably, with the new tenders, we will be the first player in some important southern provinces in the Puglia region, in Basilicata, and also in Sicily, where we strengthen our position in this safeguard business.

Here we expect to grow additionally to combine the customers we have acquired through the tenders for electricity services and then to extend the provision of gas and additional services in the AS. So if you look at our peers, you see our expenditure comparing with Edison. So we have been able to save 70%-80% compared to our peers. Let me just share some figures. We have invested about EUR 17 million, Edison EUR 320 million, A2A EUR 240 million, and EUR 238 million. This is just to tell you that we have not invested very much. We have acquired many customers. We are ranking number three. So that's not an ideal start, but for sure, we have spent less to acquire valuable customers. And there we can also start supplying additional services and also gas.

We are very optimistic about 2024 and most of all 2025, where we will have a larger customer base and the opportunity to have commercial synergies. We expect fresh EBITDA from this additional business. So, we are very optimistic. Giovanni, question number three and number four, net working capital in the guidance 2024. We have also embedded a worsening of net working capital, about EUR 100 million, because in the decreasing energy price scenario, there is a negative impact on our performance in terms of net working capital versus 2023. Concerning facilities, 2023 has witnessed a reduction in performance due to maintenance activities and also because of depletion of some landfill capacity. As to landfills, there are some approvals pending.

We deem the approval cannot be completed by the end of 2024, but we will have additional landfill capacity starting from 2025 with reference to new facilities, to new plants to recover waste, so waste to energy, so wood recycling plants in Vercelli, plastic recovery, and the double furnace at Santhià. We believe that in 2024, they will be operating not really under full swing. There will be a recovery of profitability about EUR 10 million. From 2025 onwards, we deem we will be able to reach full saturation of these plants with a more significant contribution of about EUR 20 million. With reference to special waste, the reduction is due to saturation of the landfill capacity and to the market, giving us fewer opportunities in the field of intermediation.

The tax rate is very low because, as you have seen, we had significant tax credits arising from the fact that we are a high-energy-intensive company, most of all in plastic treatment. This has stopped in 2023. So, our forecast for 2024 is for an ordinary tax rate between 30%-31%.

Operator

Thank you very much. I would like to remind you that you can submit questions or comments in today's conference by selecting star one on the keypad of your device. Next question, Alessandro Di Vito from Mediobanca.

Alessandro Di Vito
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Good afternoon. Thanks for your presentation. I have three questions. First question is about the dividend. In the last business plan, you included the 10% growth of the dividend per share. This year, the dividend per share is increasing by 8% with a negligible cut.

Luca Dal Fabbro
Executive Chairman, Iren

So what's cautious, and we deem 8% to be fully consistent with the 2023 figures. 10% would, in our opinion, have been not well balanced. A 60% payout is more than adequate considering the context and our results. With reference to the guidance, as it's our tradition, we will be more accurate in the next quarters. Net income, we have shared. We have given visibility on the other variables. We will provide additional information about the net income in the next quarterly reports. Hedging in 2024, we have about 65% of renewable energy production that is hedged, hedged starting from October, November 2023. And we have an equally consistent percentage, about 60% of hedging in thermoelectric energy. This on generation. On the customer side, fixed price sessions are hedged at 100%. So, we are now considering hedging and planning hedging for 2025.

Alessandro Di Vito
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you. Can you give some price indication for this hedging?

Luca Dal Fabbro
Executive Chairman, Iren

Sure. Hedging on renewables is about EUR 130 per MWh. For thermoelectric, about EUR 3-EUR 4 per MWh, as Clean Spark Spread. And the marginality we have allows us to have fixed value.

Alessandro Di Vito
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you very much, Indeed.

Operator

Thank you very much. And next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Emanuele Oggioni
Senior Financial Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Good evening. Thank you for your presentation. I also have some questions, also with respect to what has been asked by previous colleagues, especially for net working capital. You mentioned before that in those scenarios of inflation of energy commodities, you have had an increase by about EUR 100 million in net capital absorption in 2024, 2023. And I believe that as other competitors of yours did in 2023. So I wanted to understand your lag in reducing working capital in 2023 under this point of view.

I'm not referring about EUR 150 million super bonus, but EUR 164 million of NWC normal in 2023. What are the dynamics? Why do we have those negative dynamics in 2024? Whereas the prices scenario is in favor of a reduction of cash absorption for net working capital. So this is the first question. The second question regards the retail business. Before, you mentioned that you had bids, tenders. And regarding the free market customers, there's 2 million customers. What about the performances? They were very good in the 4Q of 2023 with respect to my expectations. So I wanted to understand why those. You were talking about tenders, but I wanted to talk about the customer base and what kind of a margin to a qualitative level. What is the trend of the margin per customer in 2024 compared to what has been very good in 2023?

So do you see an equal customer base? What kind of evolution of the margin per customer you see? This is the second question. The third question concerns the regulated networks. In previous calls, we talked about EUR 50 million, EUR 45 million additional EBITDA in 2024 from regulated networks, meaning thanks to reevaluation of RAB by about 18 points-19 points compared to the WACC and also the recovery of the water tariff of the water cycle business. So, I wanted to understand whether this estimate is confirmed or is more conservative. And the last question, if I may, is regarding hydroelectric concessions. If you can give us an update on that. You were among the first more innovative to make a proposal of partnership between public and private businesses.

Do you have anything to add on these and what we could expect regarding the regulation and when these will be decided in the near future?

Luca Dal Fabbro
Executive Chairman, Iren

Yes, indeed, it is counter-intuitive, but it depends on our portfolio of generation. We have, in generation, thermoelectric generation, hydroelectric generation, that as a whole reach about 9 TWh and employment for customers of about 5 TWh. So, we have energy with, indeed, actually a collection within 7 days. And with regard to the reduction of prices, these actually create a lower flow since, indeed, the payment terms for thermoelectric are about 90 days-100 days. So this element actually characterizes us and therefore determines this lag. And regarding the networks, we had underestimated and we were very conservative because we did not actually know the increase of WACC, especially for the integrated hydroelectric cycle. So it's about EUR 70 million-EUR 80 million.

So we have benefits coming from also the recognition, also remuneration of invested capital and also of a deflator that also affects the RAB increase and the recovery of inflation regarding OpEx. With respect to the dynamics of, indeed, the customer base in 2024, as of today, we may say that our view is that there's a level of margins that, as characterized in 2023, can be maintained also throughout in 2024 with some possibilities of a further upside. Regarding the last questions for concessions, yes, we were the first to work on partnerships between public and private. We presented a project finance, and that was approved by the region. Indeed, there would be a tender. We will participate in that.

And since we have won a project, we means that we have a last call, meaning that at equal price and value, we are the ones who will be awarded the tender. So in general, we see the other operators in great difficulties because they didn't follow this procedure. We're still in a great uncertainty situation. And so the beginning of tenders, there is, indeed, the risk of a great entry for those going to free market because also funds and other operators that are quite interested in that. So we think we have operated quite well. We will see whether we will be good in the tender, but we have a lower risk compared to other operators in the thermoelectric business.

Operator

Thank you very much. Next question comes from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo.

Davide Candela
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Good afternoon, and thank you for your presentation. I also have three questions.

The first question is a follow-up from working capital and what you have explained to us with respect to the commodity scenarios. And I was wondering, which is the commodity scenario underlying that net working capital absorption? And can you give us more of a middle or short-term perspectives for price scenarios also with respect to what we are seeing right now and what are your estimates regarding the evolution of this scenario? The second question concerns, again, the M&A issue. And I would like to know whether you are interested in doing a payout of minorities. You have, especially in the water business and in more in general, also considering the Egea operation that is likely to be finished. What is your headroom on the top of that as a full-time leverage that you could have also at the end of 2024, including Egea?

Then a last question regarding the various due dates and the debt evolution and refinancing topics, so the various debt maturities. Thank you very much.

Luca Dal Fabbro
Executive Chairman, Iren

Regarding the commodities scenarios, we have reasoned on a pool from EUR 80-EUR 85 for the entire year 2024. We believe this is a floor level of the PUN. And as you see we see the short, middle, long term. We might believe that there is a recovery starting from the second half of 2025 to reach EUR 100 in 2026. Regarding, indeed, the debt topic, in January, we issued a bond of EUR 500 million. Quite important operation. And we had quite good feedback, nine times, indeed, the amount of EUR 500 million we had sought. And these, indeed, allows us also to have, indeed, the coverage of the bond expiring in the last quarter of 2024.

The next maturity will take place half 2025 for about EUR 500 million. Regarding the dynamics of rates, we also think that there might be a progressive reduction from a 25 basis points starting from June. Of course, this will be affected by inflation performances, the dynamics of, indeed, the gross domestic product of the euro area. Regarding AcquaEnna, regarding water AcquaEnna, that is, and the minority, thank you, refer to the minority owned by F2i. We will evaluate these according to the sale process of F2i. Based on those dynamics, we will decide whether to participate. Of course, the participation would have to affect our ratio, indeed, our size, our 3.3, 3.4. So if additional sale operations should intervene for cash-in, we may make cash out. Otherwise, we won't buy the minority.

Regarding water and AcquaEnna, of course, we still have a few years to exercise the call option. We have 50%. If we have the signing and the closing, we have 50%. To acquire the additional 50% in order to consolidate the EBITDA results, we may evaluate this in the next few years. We are not in a hurry. My position as a company is we will see how AcquaEnna goes. If we will see that AcquaEnna is improving their performances, we might decide to acquire it in the next few years. This is what we think.

Davide Candela
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Thank you very much, indeed.

Giovanni Gazza
CFO, Iren

Can we deep dive into working capital? If we imagine the slightly higher scenario than you have depicted, EUR 90-EUR 100, would there be a small upside on the debt end of 2024? Second question, in 2025. So what about the net working capital considering the expected price scenarios with a view to 2026? I can confirm it's a likely improvement of the single energy price of the PUN. Those levels would bring an upside, a significant upside for us. And this will also apply to 2025. Thank you very much, indeed.

Davide Candela
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Thank you. Next question from Francesco Sala, Banca Akros.

Francesco Sala
Equity Analyst, Banca Akros

Good afternoon. Thanks for your presentation. I've got three questions. First question, can you split the expected CapEx in 2024 by business unit? Second, clarification about net working capital in your guidance in the EBITDA.

How much is included in terms of cash collection for the 110% Superbonus? Third question, can you share with us, since you have been talking about hedging production in 2025, the hedging strategies, what are the prices you are currently considering, the feasible prices for that?

Giovanni Gazza
CFO, Iren

Working capital and the fact of the cessation of Superbonus tax credits. We would like to see the EUR 250 million. Let me just give you a view concerning the last measure, so the latest news. You have probably read in newspapers. These EUR 250 million refer to 2023. This is an amount we have already registered. So, there is no risk connected to this measure. As to the prices for 2025, we expect that in the second half of 2025, there can be a recovery and an increase in the PUN, in the single energy price. So, we assume values between EUR 90 and EUR 95 per megawatt-hour. Breakdown of investments. We expect, in the wake of continuity, about EUR 1 billion investment in 2024, EUR 350 million-EUR 400 million related to grids, EUR 150 million-EUR 180 million related to waste business unit, energy, EUR 220 million, of which about EUR 70 million-EUR 80 million in renewable energy sources.

And then we also have corporate investments, CapEx relating to IT, EUR 60 million, and market investments for another EUR 60 million. And then we should also add the M&As previously described by the chairman. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much, indeed. There are no additional questions. I would like to remind you that you can submit questions or comment pressing star 1 on the keypad of your device.

Okay. No additional questions. Then I hand over to Giulio.

Giulio Domma
Head of Investor Relations, Iren

Thank you. Thank you very much, indeed, for your attention. During the next call, we will comment on the quarterly results. Happy Easter. Thank you. We close today's conference. Have a nice evening.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. If you wish to raise questions following today's presentation, please address them via our webcast. You may.

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