Good day, and welcome to today's Iren conference call. This meeting is being recorded. At this time, I would like to hand the call over to Giulio Domma, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good afternoon, everybody, and thanks for joining our conference call on nine months results. I'm here with the CEO... With the Chairman, Mr. Dal Fabbro, and the CFO, Ms. Anna Tanganelli. We will start with the presentation, then the Q&A section will follow. Luca, go ahead, please.
Thank you, Giulio, and good afternoon, everybody. Let me remark that our outstanding nine months results are one step forward along our strategy path. Indeed, on page two, let's go to on page two, you can see the key highlights. First, the EBITDA was 13% up, thanks to the full recovery of customers portfolio, value, and stronger hydro generation, in particular, very strong hydro generation. Second, the positive performance is also boosted by an external growth contribution, yielding by the full integration of Sei Toscana, a waste collection company, and from the consolidation of AcquaEnna, which is a Sicilian water company. Then, as third point, the organic growth, underpinned by technical investments at about EUR 550 million, that was almost completely offset by higher costs due to persistent inflationary scenario.
Then fourth, considering such a strong delivery, also supported by a well-diversified portfolio of activities, we keep on pushing on the investments underlined by our 10-year business plan, which has been proven once again, quite effective. Now, let's move on page three. It is a quite complex slide, but nevertheless, we can see that our sustainable growth continued throughout the quarter with all sustainable key indicators ahead or on track with the business plan path. In particular, positive results already shown in the first half of the year are confirmed in this quarter, with a material recovery and biomethane production up 30% and 72%, respectively.
Compared to the last year, on top of the carbon intensity, which, of course, was, in the first half, was very higher than previous year, is now at the same level, achieving our business plan assumptions, also on this slide. We have continued to reinforce sorted waste collection, reaching 71% of the legacy areas, and at the same time, we widened our local presence in district heating and water business. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the districtization activities on water cycle continued, ahead of our business plan assumption, reaching 70%, enabling of a decrease of water withdrawals by -5%. Now, sustainable investment accounted for 80% of total during this period. Let's move on page slide four, which shows the key economic and financial numbers of the period.
In the nine months, EBITDA reached EUR 857 million, reporting an important growth of 12.9%, supported by energy value chain. The ordinary result was 14.9% up, year- to- year, included several tailwinds and headwinds. On the tailwinds side, we reported a recovery in market profitability from 2022, in particular, in electricity supply, worth over than EUR 110 million. A recovery in hydroelectric price, 90% up, and volumes 50% up compared to the previous year. And then a full contribution of Sei Toscana, which accounted for EUR 14 million plus in waste business unit and the consolidation of AcquaEnna. Again, as I said, is a water company in Sicily, with a positive result of +4%. On the headwinds side, we boosted.
We booked a strong reduction of MSD to EUR 25 million from EUR 30 million in 2022, due to a lower demand on only the margin. This, of course, is a general result of all the operators, so it's not specific to Iren, but is generically spread all over the operators working in MSD. Then a district heating contribution of -EUR 25 million due to the consumption reduction. Then inflection scenario affecting our operational costs of EUR 15 million, mainly on regulated businesses, which partially offset our organic growth in regulated business, accounted for EUR 20 million. Now, as far as EBIT was only 1% up, because of what? Because of recognition of provisions related to Italian government's claw back on renewables price for EUR 41 million, and then stripping out this, and EBITDA was up 14%.
Then, as far as technical investments are concerned, these were EUR 548 million, in line with the previous year. Most of the investments concern the networks, while the largest increase was recorded in the waste business units. Finally, net financial position at the end of September was in line with the end of June and equal to EUR 3.9 billion, increasing versus December year-end, due to the net working capital expansion and the high level of Super Bonus 100% credit. Now, I hand over to Anna to go through each business unit's nine months results. Please, Anna.
Thank you, Luca, and good afternoon to all of you. So let's now move to our business unit results, starting with the business unit networks on slide five. Excluding non-recurring items that positively impacted the same period of last year as a result of tariff adjustments related to 2021, ordinary EBITDA was substantially in line year-over-year. The positive contribution from higher regulated tariffs of EUR +18 million in the period was almost fully offset by the impact of the severe inflation scenario on operational costs, which will be recovered through tariffs over the coming years. Whereas CapEx were in line with prior year, underpinning a rough growth of +8%, and in particular, the +31% increase in investments for the electricity grid signal our commitment to continuously improving the resilience of such network.
As for water distribution, as you might recall, at the end of May of this year, we acquired a majority stake in AcquaEnna, as previously said by Luca, which contributed to an EBITDA growth of EUR 4 million. Turning to slide six, the waste business unit, EBITDA, decreased by around EUR 10 million year-over-year to EUR 187 million. While waste collection grew by EUR 13 million over the period, also driven by the effective integration of Sei Toscana, which is fully consolidated since July 2022. Treatment and disposal, combined with a contracted energy generation, reported a negative performance compared to last year. In particular, at the end of Q3, we experienced lower margins from recyclable waste and brokerage activities due to landfill volume reduction, together with a lower EBITDA contribution from the new plants due to startup costs and ramp-up activities.
Energy generation was, as said, negatively impacted by an adverse energy scenario. At the same time, we continued to execute our investment growth path with +16% CapEx year-over-year to support the development of several new treatment facilities, one of which is already in operation, which is the wood treatment plant for pallet production in Vercelli, and two others to be phased in by year-end, which are the plastic and paper treatment plant in Borgo a Mozzano, and the expansion of organic fraction treatment plant with biomethane production in Santhià. Moving to slide seven, the energy business unit, ordinary EBITDA, increased by EUR 6 million over the period to EUR 263 million, mainly due to a positive contribution of hydro.
Renewables, which includes solar and hydro, posted a strong positive margin of +135, EUR 35 million, sorry, over the period, primarily thanks to hydro, as said, with prices close to 150 EUR per MWh as a result of an effective hedging strategy and higher volumes for 300 GWh. On the other hand, solar margins were down due to lower prices compared to previous year. Heat margins contracted by EUR 27 million year-over-year, as milder winter temperatures, predominantly in Q1, combined with customers' energy savings actions, resulted in lower distributed volumes. CCGT and thermal was impacted by a severe reduction in MSD compared to prior year, with MSD at only EUR 25 million over the period, in line with the nationwide trend, versus EUR 70 million in 2022.
At the same time, volumes produced by our CCGTs were slightly up year-over-year, thanks to the full availability of our Turbigo plant. The clean spark spread was EUR 4 per MWh, higher than 2022, thanks to an opportunistic management of our facilities and a successful hedging policy. We reported positive results also of our energy efficiency business, sustained by more than EUR 230 million of investments made in the period. Going to slide eight, the market business unit recovered in 2023 the full value of its customer portfolio, predominantly in electricity, which last year had been adversely impacted by market volatility. As already seen in the previous quarters, this result was achieved by an effective management of contracted expiration and by focusing mainly on variable price contracts and on fixed components to reduce margin volatility.
This important recovery was achieved despite a decrease in overall volumes sold, due to a strategic decision to continue to increasingly focus on retail rather than business customers, and due to lower consumptions of retail clients as a consequence of several energy-saving actions. Finally, Iren Plus reported a contraction year-over-year due to weak demand of energy efficiency projects linked to the end of incentive. Let's now briefly comment the P&L items below the EBITDA on slide nine. Depreciation was up EUR 54 million versus prior year as a result of the integrations and consolidations made and the CapEx carried out during the period. As for other provisions and write-downs, here we booked a EUR 41 million provision related to the Italian government claw back decree on renewable prices. The figure was revised upwards compared to H1, due to the recalculation of some components.
As mentioned in the last call, administrative appeals on the matter are underway, and we expect a favorable resolution for the group over the coming months. Tax rate is confirmed at 26%, benefiting from tax credit introduced in 2023 for high energy consuming companies. Net profit for the period was EUR 177 million, up +26% year-over-year. Moving to that financial position on page 10, net debt increased by EUR 583 million compared to year-end 2022, while it is stable compared to H1 2023.
The growth in net debt was a result of EUR 548 million of net CapEx carried out in the period, and an increase in net working capital, mainly resulting from, as we already commented in the previous quarters, an unfavorable cash payment term, payment terms across 2022 and 2023 winter season compared to historical conditions, and a significant stock of Super Bonus 110% tax credit, notwithstanding the partial reduction and factoring we executed in Q3. I will now turn the call back to Luca for our closing remarks.
Thanks, Anna. So moving to page 11, we confirm our forecast 2023 guidance, defined by 10% EBITDA growth, driven mainly by the recovery of customers portfolio value, improved performance in generations, supported by hydroelectric reservoirs, the full availability of Turbigo plant, and the potential estimates on heat and gas volume in Q4. EUR 1.3 billion gross investments, and therefore we expect an NFP/EBITDA ratio of 3.3x by the end of the year. Well, then thank you for your attention, and let's now move to the Q&A sessions.
Yeah, if you allow me, before we move to the Q&A session, as today marks my last analyst call as a CFO of Iren. As you know, on December first, I will start a new adventure in a different company, in a different industry. I really want to take the opportunity to thank you all for the support and constant, let's say, constructive dialogue we had over the past two years. It's been really an honor and a privilege to work with you over this time, and obviously to work as CFO of Iren. And I hope we will have an opportunity to work together again in the future. Thank you.
Best wishes, Anna.
Thank you, Luca.
Thank you for, you know, the service you provide to the company.
Thank you.
It was appreciated. Okay, let's move to the Q&A. So please shoot your questions. Thanks.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question at this time, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you find that your question has already been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. Again, it is star one to ask a question. Our first question comes from Javier Suárez from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone, and thank you for the presentation, and many thanks to CFO for the job done. The first question is exactly related to recent changes in the management team. The question for the new Executive Chairman is when do you intend to update the market on the new business plan? And which are the moving pieces that you are maybe waiting for to present that new business plan? Is that related to some acquisition? Is that related to regulatory outcome? Is that related to taking time to better understand the way you want to direct the company?
So can you help us and elaborate to understand your way of thinking about the existing business plan, and the update of that business plan with a new business plan that is mirroring the way a new management is looking at things? That would be the first question. The second question is on corporate activity and things that can change the profile of the company. I'm referring to the acquisition of some of the assets of Egea. You can update us on the timing for this operation, and more importantly, what do you think is the upside for an investor or Iren stemming from the integration of this asset? And also, where you are on the disposal of minority stake on the gas distribution network.
The third question has to do with the general outlook on... for 2024. So entering into 2024, how do you see the different business evolving? How do you see also the discussion with the regulator when it comes to the new regulatory framework for water distribution? Your latest expectations from the regulatory outcome affecting electricity and gas distribution from 2024. Many thanks.
Okay, Javier, thank you very much for the questions. So first question being, let's say, the governance and the when we are going to update the market. So we are going to update the market by June 2024. And in this occasion, we will update, let's say, the year plan. So far, so good, so no big changes are required for the time being. So but by June 2024, we are going to maintain the plan. We are going to issue the new new ideas on the plan, eventually. Corporate activities, in particular, the update of Egea timing, right?
Well, as you might know, we have been selected as exclusive bidder now, and we are at the moment busy with the Egea management to finalize the agreement with the banks that are the one that own the debts. So we are going to negotiate with them and with the state as far as tax are concerned, that Egea didn't pay in the last years. When we are going to finalize the agreement with the credit owners and the state, then we are going to have the first signings. The closing is foreseen at the moment by March 2024 . So, you know, to cut the story short, by the end of the year, we should have the signing.
By the end of March 2024, we should have the closing of the operation, and then if all will go successfully, we are going to own the company by April 2024. This is the best estimate I can share with you. Okay? Now, as far as minority stakes, we are, you know, under discussion with, with an operator. Let's not mention for, you know, let's say, elegance, the name. We, we are, you know, discussing. There are some ups and downs in the discussion, but we are moving, we are moving to, you know, on the discussion. What is the last question? I think.
Outlook for 2024.
Well, then, Anna, I think you can help me on that.
I can, maybe give some, some hints then, if you want, because.
Go ahead.
Please interrupt me. So, obviously, for now, we are seeing a growth for 2024, broadly in line with the plan we announced this year. There will be obviously some changes. Above all, as we had mentioned when we released and announced the plan and the update from a regulatory standpoint of the WACC, that you might remember, was not reflected in the plan that we currently have. So that's gonna be definitely an upside, as well as we expect a recognition in the tariffs of the impact on the cost side we had this year for inflation. Other than that, as for organic growth, I would say no big news.
So we will have the full operation of our waste treatment plant and and also the generation assets, including Turbigo, which, as you know, this year was not fully available across across the year. On the financial side, on the the net financial position side, we will have the impact if the the process comes to successful conclusion of of Egea, which we estimate to be in the ballpark of a hundred million hundred million euros, which we are able to to fully absorb, as we communicated also in the past. And we expect, therefore, to maintain our net debt and EBITDA ratio in line with with the plan, and in any case below the 3.4 times we always we always indicated.
I would say also on the dividend policy, same, same, strategy as in the plan.
Interesting, thanks-
Sorry, Javier, maybe one last thing that's important on the regulatory side, I forgot to mention. We are in favor of the ROS system, just to maybe anticipate the question that may come later on, as we foresee a quality premium on projects and activities, which many in the areas in which we are focused, and we have a lot of investments, say, in progress in place, to improve the resilience of our network.
Could you please share your expectations on the uplift on regulatory formulas for electricity and maybe water from 2024?
Well-
On the WACC side, you're saying, our view is around 80 basis points. But as I said, we never included that in the plan, but this is, broadly speaking, our forecast, our expectation, and this will translate into an EBDA overall impact, including the WACC increase, the state, or let's say, the recovery of inflation, which I mentioned before, around EUR 45 million-EUR 50 million on EBITDA.
Many thanks.
Our next question comes from Roberto Letizia from Equita. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks for taking my question, and, many thanks to Anna for the good job done in the last two years. I'm sure you will have many other good opportunity in the future. And, so what regards my questions, the first one relates to Javier's question, specifically on the recovery of the cost impact for inflation. Can you, can you quantify, in your view, what is this kind of recovery that may impact EBITDA next year, just related to the cost impacts from inflation? Then, one question on the guidance for the EBITDA, you, you maintain the +10% increase in EBITDA for the full year, but the four... but third quarter, which suggests a higher number for the full year than the 10%, the performance you just registered.
Wondering, what are you including in the fourth quarter as a negative element to remain on the 10%, which at least to me, seems a bit conservative, and eventually, what was in the fourth quarter last year that won't be repeated in 2023? I wonder if there is any clarity on the provision you are still maintaining for the extra profit taxation. When do you think we are gonna have clarity on this, and what kind of impact then you may eventually benefit? The last one, on the waste business, you mentioned some start-up costs affecting the performance of the waste.
H ow much are these and what do you expect for the waste division to be the outlook for the next year, just for the waste division? Thanks a lot.
Okay. If I may, I'll go and then please, jump in. So on the recovery cost of inflation, so out of the EUR 45-50 million I was mentioning earlier, we expect, around EUR 25 million to be linked to the recovery of, of inflation. But please note, we also expect for 2024, higher, higher OpEx, and so the net, the net result would be more in the range of, let's say, EUR 15 million. So on Q4, yes, we were expecting these questions, this question from, from you guys. So we are still, conservative also on the evolution of the energy scenario for the last, quarter, and, and on the prices.
So we prefer to maintain, let's say, this guidance on the +10%. Please also remember that last year, in the last part of Q4, we also had some one-offs, mainly in positive one-offs, mainly in the water networks, which also obviously this year are no longer there and impact Q4 of 2023. But let's say we remain prudent a little bit, given the volatility we are seeing on the energy scenario in these days, and also the mild temperatures we are experiencing in these months and in these weeks.
As for the provision, so right now we don't have any visibility, as said, whether, let's say the whole administrative process, which is underway, will conclude in a positive way. We are, let's say, hopeful, and that's why, we decided to post-post the provision anyhow, because, as you know, especially for the portion links to 2022. So the two portions, the one linked to 2022, and the one in 2023, have different processes underway, so we need a little bit to differentiate between the two, the two elements.
We are, above all, very hopeful on the portion linked to 2023, as this, in our view, conflicts with, let's say, an EU decree, which set a cap at 180 EUR per MWh. On the one linked to 2022, we are still a bit prudent. Early December, there might be some news coming out, but, as said, we still don't have greater visibility than what we just said on the outcome of this process. On the waste start-up costs, they are around 4-5 million EUR. Let me confirm. 4-5 million EUR. Okay.
Thanks a lot.
Thank you. We will now move on to our next question from Davide Candela, from Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation, and, thanks, also from my side, Anna, for these 10 years. I have a few questions. The first one is, also on, corporate activities, and it just regards, some press articles mentioning the potential disposal of, your about 9% of Iren Acqua, if this configures on, on your intention, to dispose this stake. The second one, question is about debt. Looking at the final year figures, in your slide number 10, you mentioned, some working capital reduction by year-end, relating to the bonus and some normalization in gas payments. I was wondering if you can quantify, the amount that you expect to recover by year-end, and, that's almost these two questions. Thank you.
Iren Aqua?
Well, on Iren Acqua, we do not intend to dispose, but it is F2i that is planning to eventually dispose 40% of its participation. We own 60% of it, and F2i 40%. So F2i is planning to investigate the possibility to dispose of the 40%. And we have some preemption rights that we are discussing with F2i, but we do not plan to dispose at the moment our 60% stake.
On that, Davide, it was a bit difficult to hear you, but I hope I can answer your question. If not, please obviously jump in. So the reduction from now to year end in terms of working capital is gonna come predominantly through the continuous reduction of the Super Bonus of 110%. As you know, in the second half of the year, we always said we were gonna start factoring, say, selling these credits to financial institutions, and we started to do that. And that's why you see a stock now reduced compared to end of June, and we will continue to do so also towards the end of the year.
As you know, we will maintain a stock of tax credits by year-end because we hope to, well, actually not hope, we plan to balance, to offset, withstand the tax payments for 2024. But if the conditions are there and, say, we want to do that, we could also accelerate that, that factoring, before, before year-end. And then the second element is that starting from the winter season of 2023-2024, so starting basically now, we start seeing finally, payment terms to energy suppliers going back to the terms that we were experiencing and seeing before, before the crisis. So that's, that's good news. I hope I addressed your question.
Sorry, just a follow-up. Can you more or less quantify which amount you expect, more or less? Sorry also for my bad line before.
No, no, no, not at all. In terms of, net working capital reduction or, overall, I guess you mean the overall reduction net working capital or the tax credits amount?
Yes, net working capital reduction in the fourth quarter. Overall.
So it's gonna reduce by around EUR 100 million versus the figure you see today. So for a reduction of around EUR 100 million.
Many thanks.
Our next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni, from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everybody. Thank you for taking my question as well. First of all, I would like to thank you, Anna, for her job. We miss you for sure. It was really a pleasure to work together. My first question is on the hedging policy on 2024. If it's possible to disclose the so far hedged volumes and power price levels for the generation business in next year. And the second question is a precision, more details on the Egea deal structure, 'cause I intended previously that your offer was set up in order to reduce the cash out, in particular, the net debt consolidation of the target company.
So in order to not consolidate the company until the restructuring process will be completed, in I think I don't know at least two years, maybe. If you can add more detail on this. Thank you.
Yeah. Okay. Well, on the hedging policy, at the moment, no dates are available. We are working on implementing the hedging activities at the moment. To be honest, the market, in particular, the gas market, is very volatile. So, you know, let's be a little bit careful. We are going to work on that. We are, you know, deepening the analysis, and we are going to anyhow, take into account that we have a power of, 15%. So, but at the moment, no data are available.
As far as Egea is concerned, well, as you mentioned, as soon as we will finalize the closing, which is, as I said, forecasted for March 2024, we are going to implement our restructuring plan, which foresees a series of activities, going from a commercial synergy generation, organization optimization, and the plant, let's say, synergies. So in other words, there would be a massive plan to make sure that the operations and Egea, in particular, will yield some results. To be very honest, you might recall that a couple of years ago, we were prepared to buy Egea for EUR 110 million. I don't know if this was disclosed, but now you know.
Now we are buying for much less, and we are buying without any risks, because all the risk are offset by the tribunal activities. So, as I said, to my board, when they authorized me to make the offer, if the sellers will accept our offer, it will be a good bargain for Iren, and I confirm this view. In other words, with all the synergies that we are going to generate are not accounted in the offer. So we have, you know, less than EUR 50 million synergy to be generated. That is in our pockets. Now, this EUR 50 million should be confirmed by and when we are going to jump in Egea and work hardly.
But we might generate synergies between EUR 0 and EUR 50 million, subject to confirmation as soon as we will work on Egea internally, of course. I don't know if I made myself clear? Okay, good. Thanks.
Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Roberto Letizia from Equita. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks for the follow-up for the executive chairman. You released some interview in the press in the past days, some of which were already talking about additional M&A from the group, which is actually the most active so far after the closure of Egea. I know this is going to take some time, and also a restructuring process, but maybe you can share a few thoughts on the opportunities you might have in 2024 on the M&A side. Thanks a lot.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I recall the interview. We would like to strengthen our positioning in our territories where we are already present. So, as you might have heard, we have closed a deal in Tuscany to consolidate a portion of, let's say, the EBITDA of our participants company. We have, of course, acquired the subject to the confirmation of the creditors, Egea, and we are looking at small activities, but strategic activities in our territories. So for us, territories means Emilia, Tuscany, Piedmont, Liguria, and also some activities in the South. So in this context, we are looking at a couple of targets, but I cannot comment further because they are confidential.
No, yes, I don't mean you to add any name or numbers. Just wondering if you see a high probability to see additional deals, whatever they are, they are gonna be, during 2024.
There will be a good probability are going to be small deals, not, let's say, massive deals like Egea. So are going to be tactical or strategic deals, but a very small entity in terms of enterprise value.
Thanks a lot.
Francesco Sala, Bank, Banca Akros. Please go ahead. The line is open.
Yes, good evening. Thank you for taking my question. I just wonder whether you can share with us the weight of fixed price contract in the gas business as we enter the winter season. And secondly, I wonder whether you are starting to see increasing competition in the supply business, especially as regards prices. The recovery margins has been quite impressive in the last few quarters, but I wonder whether you're seeing something new or something changing in the competitive space, especially as regards pricing. Thank you.
So the weight of the fixed price contract is 30%. Confirm, yes? I was just checking, and yes, it's 30%. As for the competition on prices, on the supply business, definitely, yes, we are seeing an increased competition also from new operators. We've seen this over the past, over the past months. So obviously, this will reflect also on the churn rate, but we are experiencing. So yes, the short answer is definitely yes.
Thank you so much.
As a reminder, to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. We will pause for just a moment to allow you to signal. It seems there are no further questions at this time, but please let me turn the call back over to our host for any additional or closing remarks.
Well, thank you very much for your questions, and then looking forward for the next session. For the time being, have a great day. Thanks.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.