Welcome, and thank you for joining Lottomatica Group's nine-month 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Guglielmo Angelozzi, CEO at Lottomatica. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, operator, and good morning to all participants. Let me give you an overview of what has been a very strong quarter, Q3, slightly above company-compiled consensus expectations , with a further strengthening of competitive position in online, which leads us to confirm the guideline that we upgraded in Q2. We are at page number 2 of the presentation. As you can see from the graphs, revenues are up 6% year-on-year for the quarter, and EBITDA increased by 7%.
While, if you normalize for payout effects, which has been unfavorable at market level, in Q3, you get 11% increase in revenues and 18% increase in EBITDA, which is in line slash above what we have seen in the first part of the year, Q1 and Q2. Other good news, leverage stays constant at 2.2 times, notwithstanding the seasonality of Q3 in terms of CapEx. Q3, we have the concentration by regulation of concession CapEx, and also it was quite an intense quarter in terms of growth initiatives. So this is another good point. But I would say the most important thing is that we continue to increase our market share in online, in all products, and in all brands.
When you look at total online, so all products in, we are at 21.2%, almost 4 points above last year. And we are above, more than 3 points in sports compared to last year, and 4.5 points in iGaming. Also, last quarter, we announced that we would secure deals for EUR 15 million- 20 million EBITDA in 2023, EBITDA that would fall into 2024 profit and loss (P&L). And the good news is that EUR40 million of that amount has already been secured. So in the last quarter, we'll complete what we announced in Q2. Let's deep dive for a second, page number 3 of the presentation, on revenues and EBITDA growth.
You can see on the blue bars, dark blue bars, the reported increase pro forma just means that we are considering Betflag also the full year in 2022, Betflag acquisition. And the light blue bars is the revenues and EBITDA normalized for payouts. And you can appreciate that if you take away for a second the volatility of the payout driven by the unfavorable results at market level, there is a sequential positive progression in terms of growth, especially at the EBITDA level, driven by online, which is really going very strong.
But also, sports franchise, if you consider that, as I said, clearly there is the volatility of the unfavorable payout results, but also there was a calendar of sports events, which was slightly worse than last year, then, you know, we're very happy with the results. We confirm the slight softness in gaming franchise that we had anticipated... Nevertheless, it's a positive on the EBITDA level. Now, let's go and have a look at the evolution of the competitive position. This is page number 4. We continue to increase the gap with competition quarter by quarter, and for the entire portfolio, and then for each brand. You can see the entire portfolio on the left, starting from 2022, and then quarter by quarter.
And, you can see the delta with our competitors. Then on the right, you can appreciate how we performed at brand level. So out of the three brands, which have grown most in Q3 2023, compared to full year 2022, three are ours, which is something which we are pretty happy about. So this is for the total online, where basically the increase in market share that we had allowed us to capture more than 90% of the market growth in terms of GGR in Q3. If you go to page number 5, there is another interesting dynamic that I would like to highlight to you. This is iSports market shares and iGaming market shares by quarter since Q1 2022 and by brand.
You can see, you know, the improvement trend, brand by brand, quarter by quarter, especially after we've taken control of some of these brands after, say, the acquisition or the migration on our technology and product stack. You can appreciate this, particularly when you look at Lottomatica.it and Better, which are the brands that we bought from the IGT deals after the migration in Q3 2022 to our tech stack and product stack. You can see that the progression in market share is aligned to that of the other brands, as it should be when you manage a portfolio. Page number 6, still staying on competitive evolution, is the same graph that you've seen, that I've shown to you on total online.
This is on iSports, and then the next page is on iGaming, which are the two most segments in online. You can appreciate pretty much the same dynamics, both at the portfolio level and at the brand level, as you could appreciate for the total online, both for iSports and next page for iGaming. Now, why is this happening? Page number 8. Clearly, because we have a strong business model, which is omni-channel and multi-brand, with proper complementary position of each brand, but also because we have focused, and we continue to focus a lot on product and technology innovation, which allows us to remain at the forefront of innovation , in terms of quality of our offer to our customers.
Here you can find a few examples of what we have delivered to our clients in the last quarter in terms of product innovation. It's just a bunch of examples, but to show you, you know, the relevance of these in our strategy. So a huge increase in the content portfolio for casino games, new exclusive markets, attention to the payment methods, with being the first to launch instant bank transfers, some exclusive casino games in collaboration with some of our affiliates. It's a long list of initiatives that show you our focus on product and technology, which allow us to be and become more and more competitive in this market and satisfy the needs of our customers.
This has led, again, to beating in the quarter, records, for the KPIs that we monitor. This includes market share in iSports, for our brands, for each of our brands, or the number of active users, which are clearly the basis, for the market share increase, and of course, for the EBITDA increase. Page number nine. This leads us to confirm the increased guidance, that we gave in Q2. And, now I leave the floor to Laurence, to walk us through, the financials in more detail.
Thank you, Guglielmo. So moving on to page 11, you can see here the aggregate numbers for nine months, for the nine-month period, 2023 versus 2022. So in aggregate, in revenues, we've grown 12%, and bets by 19%. Whilst in Q3, you can see at the bottom left of the page, you can see the numbers for Q3, both reported. So we are up 6%, and if you were to normalize the effect of the payout, we're up 11%. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, on the right-hand side, you can see the increase from EUR 372 million in the first nine months of 2022 to EUR 426.
In the first nine months of 2023, with an improvement in margin, primarily driven by an improvement in the mix. This translates into overall growth in the first nine months of 15%. When you look at the Q3 numbers, specific to Q3, you'll see a growth of +7% on a reported basis. And if we were to normalize for the effect of the payout, as Guglielmo mentioned earlier, would be up 18%. On page 12, we see the financial highlights by segment. Again, in the first nine months overall, we've grown across all of the businesses. The iSports franchise has been up +10%. It would have been higher were it not for the impact of the payout, especially in the month of September.
Online continues to be the main growth driver, you know, consistent growth driver since you know in 2023, with +30% on a pro forma basis, and the gaming franchise up 3%, where we've seen a slowdown in the growth as a result overall in the period of 9 months, as a result of some of the softness we've seen over the summer period in the gaming franchise business. On the right-hand side, if you look at the margins by business, how they've evolved, effectively, they've stayed roughly the same for online and gaming franchise, and the sports margin have been lower, predominantly as a result of the payout effect in Q3. On page 13, the operating cash flow.
We are, at least for recurring CapEx and concession CapEx, on track with our guidance. We've spent to date EUR 46 million in terms of recurring CapEx, and EUR 36 million in concession CapEx, which we did not have in 2022 because of all the extensions we've had. Then we have EUR 23 million of extraordinary CapEx that primarily relate to the payments for Project POS and M&A, and deferred considerations for prior M&A. In Q3, of the 105 in Q3, we've spent EUR 47 million in aggregate. On the right-hand side, you'll see the operating cash flow that we define as EBITDA minus recurring concession CapEx. We are EUR 345 million in the first nine months of the year.
That compares to EUR 298 million in 2020, the same period in 2022. Clearly, 2022 benefited from the lack of concession CapEx. If we were to use the same, I look at it on on a like-for-like basis , the EUR 298 million would speak to EUR 262 million. So quite a significant uplift from last year on an organic basis. Look at page 14. The net financial debt, we reported numbers at EUR 1,216 million pro forma for all the IPO and refinancing costs, with a cash position of EUR 323 million, so a leverage of 2.2x.
We end the quarter on the 30th of September with EUR 294 million of cash and still a leverage of 2.2, primarily driven by sort of the reversals of the working capital that we had anticipated, as well as the CapEx payments that are for the concessions and Project POS, which are more back-ended in the year. When looking at the bridge, you will see that adjusted EBITDA contributing to €128 million for the quarter. Net working capital, which is an a cash outflow of EUR 66 million , which is primarily driven by the reversal of the Imposta Unica in the month of August. CapEx for EUR 47 million that I mentioned earlier, and financial expenses and lease payments totaling EUR 51 million , and then other of EUR 4 million.
That said, I think we've finished the call and open for Q&A.
Thank you. Thank you, Madam. Excuse me, this is the conference call operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask you to use handsets when asking questions. The first question comes from Ed Young of Morgan Stanley.
Good morning. I've got three, if that's okay. I'll ask them one at a time. My first question is on your online share by brand. As you said, it's up across every brand and every product. I guess from the outside, the Lottomatica and Better growth would be the easiest to explain because the migration of the group tech and product stack, but actually the best growth you've seen is in GoldBet. I know you spoke generically about the product improvements you made, but I wonder if you could just focus a little bit more on that brand in terms of what's driving that growth so strongly in the quarter, and whether you think that can continue at that kind of pace going forward?
Yeah. Hi, Ed, this is Guglielmo. I'm taking this one. Yes, look, wouldn't say that. Yeah, you're right in the sense that GoldBet is doing very well. On the other side, we always have to remember that Lottomatica and Better, apart from the migration effect, but were in a downwards trend and now are in a upwards trend. So we—which is, you know, always, always, it's, it's, it's kind of very material change. In terms of specifically, so I wouldn't, you know, in, if you look at the delta, and you look at the delta in the trends. I would say there is a material improvement, there, which is, partially because of the group and product stack.
But in general, when we say the migration, you know, of when we talk about product and we talk about improvements and new things that we do, it's not that it's only the brand, like Better or Lottomatica.it who were on another stack, on another product who benefit that. All of the brands do benefit from that. You know, the initiatives I mentioned to you were not initiatives which were limited to the Lottomatica or Better brand. They were replicated, because it's the same stack, it's the same product. They are replicated on GoldBet, the payments, for example, the game some of the marketing initiatives that we took from Betflag, and we brought that onto GoldBet, and then Better and Lottomatica.
So I mentioned a list of things which are just examples, which are for all brands, and that's why, you know, I mentioned, I said this is because we manage a portfolio of brands, right? We allocate resources depending on the characteristics of each brand, depending on the seasonality and the period of the year, but each single initiative is then replicated across the brand thanks to the fact that we have a common platform, and we can share those initiatives very easily and without any barriers in the deployment, because the underlying technology is basically the same. Actually, same stuff which has been applied, same innovations to all brands.
Very clear. Thank you. My second question was also on online, but a slightly different angle. Obviously, the market share stats that come through are on GGR. I just wondered if you could comment about your promotional intensity, what level is it at, where is it relative to the past or relative to the market? Is there any kind of framework you can give us to think about that?
Yeah, it's pretty stable. So there's not been any change in the strategy, in the actual policies that we applied. It is following. It's pretty much on the same level. We've been spending money better. We've been working a lot on advanced analytics, detailed segmentations, A/B Testing, and some artificial intelligence tools in order to calculate which are the libraries of initiatives that pay off better according to each brand and to each segment. But, so it's been very much about specializing and focusing and improving the tools that we use for that. But really, the level has been pretty much stable, following the usual seasonality by brand.
Of course, you would be some period of the year more aggressive on a sports brand. On a year, you would be more on changes.
Understood. But I guess, you're broadly saying it's no particular change year on year, and you don't think you're an outlier to the market. Is that a fair way of representing what you said?
Yep. Yep.
Yep. Okay. And then the final final question, if that's okay, is on retail gaming. It was, as you mentioned on slide three, a bit of a little bit soft during the summer period. I just wonder if there's anything particular to call out there, and are you still happy with your sort of longer-term outlook of sort of small growth in that segment, going out and throughout the year?
Yeah, look, we see these, this segment as, you know, a segment that can, in the medium to long term, recover a bit, what it has lost, in the fall from 2019. So in the medium term, we expect a very low single- digit recovery. We call it more recovery than growth. If growth refer to really what's happening to us as, what will happen to us, recovery. So we see that the medium long-term trend, most likely unchanged. Now, there can be factors, in the short term, that create noise, more specifically on this product, especially on the AWP side, but our view is unchanged.
This is, you know, a segment that has a value for us because it's because of cash generation, mostly, not because of growth, and strategically, because of the value of the omni-channel opportunity in specialized gaming hall, for the most part. So it is a very important segment. There is a lot of value attached to customers who play there. There is a lot of opportunity of conversion, so it has a strategic value will stay there and will recover a little bit in the medium, long term, probably, yes, probably unchanged. It's clearly the segment which can probably suffer more in in.
Okay, thank you very much.
The next question is from Fabio Pavan of Mediobanca.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Two quick ones, if I may. First one is, if you can provide us an update on current trading, during October is approaching to an end, so in terms of online, but also, and if you, retail part of the business. And the second question, I was wondering if you can share with us some more color on the bolt-on acquisitions you have just announced. Thank you.
Hi, Fabio. Listen, on current trading, so in October so far, we continue to see very similar trends. So we continued the strong growth in online. I think the KPIs in our sports franchise business are continue to remain very strong. You know, we'll have to see how we end the quarter on payout, because October, you know, also had some unfavorable payout. But clearly, we'll have to see how that ultimately stacks at the end of the quarter. But the KPIs, again, of the business are continuing to remain very strong. In gaming franchise, we've seen a sort of a stabilization compared to the summer period, but again, it's early to say over a period of one month.
But we, in a nutshell, we see the very similar trends, and actually probably stronger as we've come back from the summer break. Fabio, your second one was on the bolt-ons, as in the status of the bolt-ons?
Yes, exactly. Thank you, Laurence.
Yeah, no, of course. So we've said in our Q2 call that we would sort of deliver secure deals by the end of this year for amounting to 15-20 million EUR of EBITDA, that on a run rate basis, and we've secured 14 to date. So we've got another... So by the end of Q3, sorry, we've secured 14. So we've closed the acquisition of the Ricreativo B, as you will see from our financial statements. And then we've continued our strategy of distribution and sourcing, and so far, we've totaled 14. And we feel confident that we will achieve the range that we've you know, given we're very close, of 15-20 million EUR that we have announced.
So we're again on track there to sort of deliver on what we promised in July.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from James Rowland Clark of Barclays.
Hi. Morning, everyone. I've got three questions, please. The first is, obviously, one of the main drivers of online is the cross-sell from the retail channel. Have you got any sort of pieces of information, data, that you could share about the rate of sign-up in retail and how that's trended versus Q2? So how did Q3 compare to Q2 and Q1? Any color on that would be really helpful.
Yeah, I'll take, sorry. I'll take this one. For sure, the omni-channel and the cross-sell from retail is a very important point. Not the only one, but an important one. And actually, its weight depends on the brand. It's, in fact, one of the opportunities which we are delivering on is the increase of such cross-sell of the omni-channel activity in the Better brand, which is sports brand, for the recreational players. And in terms of disclosing data for the quarter, actually, unfortunately, we do not disclose that.
But you know, wouldn't expect any, not expect. I wouldn't say that there are any changes from Q2 from Q3 that you can appreciate in numbers. Of course, one of the patterns which we're focusing on, one of the activities improving the Omni-channel in Better, but and the Omni-channel in the iGaming outside the sports, which is doing very well, by the way. But if it is the case, we will make an update in the future. But unfortunately, we haven't disclosed this data for Q2, and so it's no big changes.
I would say the two most important things to give an update, probably in the future, will be the Omni-channel in the iGaming, plus, plus Better.
... Okay, thank you. That's very helpful. My second is just on the online share gains. If I look at the June market share figure, it looks like iGaming has really kicked on, and you continue to take share every month. iSports is a little bit slower. Is there any reason why we should expect online sports share gains to perhaps be slower than iGaming going forward? Or is that really just a, you know, a win margin effect, and it's a bit volatile because of that, so in fact, they should trend alongside each other in terms of share gains?
Yeah, look, I think it's when you go and you go brand by brand. You see brand by brand, you see that the main difference between sports and iSports and iGaming is that in iGaming we have three brands which have with different amounts but which have a very positive, all of the three have a very materially positive trend. Of course, Betflag and GoldBet are doing better than Lottomatica, but Lottomatica has almost taken one point, and as I said before, it was a turnaround because it was losing market share and before the migration. When you go on iSports, Lottomatica is doing very well.
Sorry, GoldBet is doing very well, 1.7, 1.7 points. Better is doing very well, 1.1 points. And this is also because there's been a quite significant improvement in terms of product there that was very material. Betflag is, you know, it's better, but it's 0.3 points, no? You appreciate the difference. Only you get three brands at full speed in iGaming, and yet you have two brands at full speed here, not three brands. Why is that? It's because Betflag is not a relatively poor product compared to the rest of the group. It hasn't been migrated yet. That's the plan for H1 2024.
So it's not already, it's not yet delivering at its full potential, because it's not benefiting from the product edge that we have in sports. You know, we explained the rationales why we were doing this for the migration of Betflag, and which is the next thing in line that we have. But I would say that's the main difference when you look at the portfolio. Three brands running at full speed on iGaming, one brand, which where we still have to see the opportunity coming from the product upgrade, which we will have in H1 2024.
Thank you. That's very clear. My final one is, it's just on the outlook, the EBITDA outlook. Just to check, does that include Ricreativo? Because if that's due to add EUR 15-20 million, sorry, yeah, EUR 14 million in 2024, is there an element of that, you know, a quarter of that, that is in your outlook?
You mean, James, you mean for 2023, EBITDA?
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, we will include it. It will include a small part of Ricreativo. I mean, we've literally just closed it at the end in September, so it will include a part of Ricreativo, yes.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from Hugo Paternoster of Kepler Cheuvreux.
Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Can you, can you hear me?
Loud and clear.
Okay, great. My first question is on Betflag. If I remember correctly, you were in a final phase of integration on this asset. I just would like to have some more color on it, and whether you believe you still have some room of improvement on this on this particular asset.
Yeah, look, Betflag has been completely integrated in terms of organization, management, when I say organization, I also mean competence centers, best practice, for example, on like CRM marketing, it's working as you know one brand in the group. In terms of platforms, so we made we've used a different strategy than in the past. So we've separated the integration of the platforms, which is just a part of an integration project, right? It's just a part. It's a very relevant part, but it's a part. We separated that in two blocks. One block is the migration of the sports platform, and one block is the migration of the wallet and the iGaming.
Our focus is on the first one, the migration on the sports, because we see the highest potential there, because while Betflag has a great product portfolio on iGaming, there's a lot of potential for improvement in iSports, and we do have a great iSports product. So we are working on the migration of that, which I mentioned before, will happen in H1 2024. We'll take a little more time on the iGaming side for two reasons. First, there is nothing particularly relevant in terms of cost savings, which by the way, we increased the level of synergies. It's along the way already, that there's no particular saving there. It's a small saving.
And in terms of top line, Betflag has the widest portfolio of games in the market, so you wanna- you don't wanna lose that, and on the other way around, you wanna complement that, integrate the best part of that portfolio on the other brands, and then migrate. It's not a matter of technical complexity or savings, and it's very much a matter of you know, taking the best of Betflag, and making sure that you don't do the migration just for the sake of the migration. With the migration, you know, you do the migration when you're ready on the product side, and you benefit also the other brands. We'll take a little more time because there's no reason to be in a rush on that.
But the short answer to your question is it's a fully integrated and managed as a brand of the company. On sports, we'll see the benefits next year, as the product gets integrated. On iGaming, we'll see the benefit on the other brands, when we bring them at the level of maturity next year of Betflag. So there is still unexpressed potential, parties on Betflag and parties on the other brands.
Okay, very clear. Thanks, thanks a lot. My second question is on the M&A pipeline. I remember that you had, like, EUR 50 million of adjusted EBITDA in the medium term. You have already secured 14 million. Just wonder how the pipeline, like, the 50 million, has evolved. Has it increased or not? And also, in terms of valuation, during the last call, you mentioned that value, the price of the asset was not moving a lot. How has it trended since the Q2?
Hi, Hugo. This is, it's Laurence. Listen, the pipeline is dynamic, and we continue to obviously it's not always a net sum game, as in 50 minus 15, and we have another 35 to work on only. We keep on adding additional opportunities as we go. So I think that there's, I don't think we are ready to sort of share another number of the total pipeline, but I think we feel confident enough that we can continue to execute our bolt-on M&A strategy in 2024. So we've got already our hands full for 2024. And then let's see how much we build over the course of 2024 in addition to that.
And then I think in terms of values, I think the values are. We continue to see in the, let's say, bolt-on world very similar values at which we have transacted over, you know, over the past year or so.
Okay, very clear. Thanks a lot. And the last one is more like, industry-wide, and it's regarding SKS365. This company would be for sale, and Playtech would be interested by, by acquiring this asset, which could be a strong boost in terms of their market share. I just would be interested to have your take on it, whether it's an asset that could interest you. Could you be, yes, could you, could you run for this kind of, of companies?
Look, it's always very hard, unfortunately, to comment on M&A, specific M&A. It's ex ante, you know, it's a hard task, so I'll, I guess I'll pass on this one.
Okay, okay. I had to try. Thanks a lot, gentlemen.
No, no, I appreciate it, I appreciate it. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from Domenico Ghilotti of Equita.
Good morning. A few questions. The first is related to the regulatory update. So we read about some decree that is moving on, and on the other side, if I'm not wrong, the budget law did not contain any news related to gaming. So if you can give us an update on that. Second is more a general consideration on the online market spending. So I wonder if, given the weaker macro that we are seeing, weaker consumption in general, and not specifically to gaming, we should expect some slowdown or some impact going into 2024, in your view, in general on the market, compared to the mid-teens growth that we were used to assume on a medium term?
Last question, if you can give us an update on Project POS and implementation, where you are today, and if you can expect some contribution, some pickup already in Q4?
... Yes, Domenico, I'll take this one. So on regulation, actually, I was worried that no one was asking about regulation, so it's now I'm relieved. No, yeah, you're right. There's nothing in the budget law, which you know,as we do each year it's a process, it's a constructive process. There's nothing on the budget law, that's about it. And we'll see how as it progresses. We understand that the way the government is approaching the overall budget law is that there is not much room for changes.
We continue to monitor that, and but, you know, it's, we are out of that for, for we, we're out of the, the budget law for the moment being, and, you know, there, there's no reason to think differently going forward. But, of course, we have to wait until the process is closed. On the legislative decree that you read some news about in the last few days, of course, I can comment only on what we read on the news. They look very constructive, right? It's, as we said, you know, when we were commenting in the past on the budget law, we said, you know, I think the focus, we think the focus is the tenders.
We think the focus is the online tenders, as it is basically the only one which can take place right now, because the others are, you know, the well-known issues, which require a lot of time and effort to be solved. It's positive if they do the tender on the online, and the anticipations that we see on the press look very rational, constructive, well thought, well organized. So it's hard to say whether, you know, this will go through this way, that way, but again, it's another indication of a rational and constructive approach to the sector, in my view.
Now, without getting to the single list of items contained in the press releases, but I think it's very straightforward that it is very rational and constructive, right? In every single point, there's no point that you know is, I think, debatable from our point of view. But again, it's on the press for now. Let's see what happens, and another indication of a more very mature and constructive approach to the industry. Which is a very important industry, not only for the money once again, but especially to you know make sure that the state has control on all these flows.
It's a key point, I believe, under this safety point of view. On marketing spend, sorry, market spend, for on the online, I think the most important driver in the Italian market is the under-penetration of online. So online is very small, both in terms of spend, but especially in terms of number of people who play online. That is growing. It's a trend which is a very clear trend in one direction. There's no reason to imagine that it will go a different way today.
So when we think about online, we have to think about the specific situation of Italy, and we believe that the under-penetration in terms of number of players is the key driver of what we see. Then, of course, you can find some noise because of available income on some clusters that may happen, but you know, the most important driver is that there's just very few players compared to any other mature market, and where the market is going the right direction. So that I would consider.
In terms of execution of the Project POS, what we can confirm to you is that, you know, Project POS, the way it works, by definition, it gives you a negative when you start executing that, because you have to shut down shops before you reopen them. You get the authorization and reopen them, and then it gives you, you know, it pays off. The clear statement that we can make on Project POS is that, we'll deliver the EBITDA that was promised in 2024. In terms of how much you see that in Q4, clearly, at the end of Q4,
...most of the, basically the EBITDA, well, Q4 is an average. So, if you look at December, if you look at the end of December, the actions that will bring us the EBITDA that we promised will be already, will be already in place, so that you see the effect from the first of January. Clearly, that's, that's gonna be averaged in October, November and December. But, but it's, it's, it's fully on track to deliver the EBITDA in 2024, 2024, that we've promised.
Okay. If I may follow up on just a clarification, because you were mentioning, say, the volatility in the payout. So if I'm not wrong, basically, you had, say, favorable contribution in the first half, basically almost offset at the end of the nine months. So and you are mentioning that October so far has not been great, so we are trending towards some normalization or slightly below normal, if I look at the progressive. Is it right, so the comment you gave?
So I think in terms of payout, it's fair to say that the positive impact we had in the first half has been basically reabsorbed in Q3. Now, in Q4, our comment is it's still early to say, because the Q4 is, you know, October is, we had an unfavorable payout, and then we have to see what November and December look like. So statistically, again, it depends on ... Last year, we had one bad month, sort of, in December, right? This year, we have, you know, September and October, which are, so, you know, have a more unfavorable payouts. We have two months. But it, it's very early to say.
What I would not draw conclusions still, frankly, on Q4 on the payout, because this is something so we can't predict. But it is true, it is fair to say that the payout advantage we had in the first half, we've lost it in Q3, and that's how it goes. Statistically, it averages out. Q4, we will see. Q4, we'll see. But my point, I think what is important here to underscore, is that the underlying KPIs of the business or the productivity of the points of sales, the revenues of sport franchise continue to be, you know, continue to be very strong. That is, that is not impacted.
Payout, unfortunately, is something we don't control, but obviously, we can think about it only in terms of normalized levels.
Okay, very clear. Thank you.
The next question comes from Gemma Sherwood of J.P. Morgan.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation. I had a follow-up to Hugo's question on your M&A strategy. Appreciate that you can't comment on media speculation, but I think, I was just wondering if more broadly, you could comment on whether you'd rule out any big M&A if the opportunity arises, and more generally, what sort of leverage would you be comfortable going up to temporarily? Thank you.
Hi, Gemma. I think, listen, in terms of, I think what we've sort of, we reiterate what we've said before, we will continue to pursue M&A. It's part of our DNA. It's, it's what we do. We know how to integrate businesses, so we will, and we do both bolt-ons as well as we look at mid-sized transactions, and, you know, we'll see then later what, what we sort of what we do and whether we want to step out, you know, step outside of Italy and how. But I do think that in terms of the, I mean, our M&A strategy hasn't changed, so we would consider definitely other sort of larger transactions than what, than our typical bolt-ons.
I think in terms of leverage, you know, we haven't disclosed a maximum ceiling in terms of leverage that we committed to. What we have committed to the financial policy of staying between 2 and 2.5 turns of leverage on a steady state basis. We would, we could consider going up above sort of the 2.5. Now, it is. Again, we can't commit to say what the precise number is, but roughly where we see the stretching at aroundapproximately 3.0x leverage is sort of where we start seeing a natural sort of a natural ceiling.
Thank you. That's helpful. And my second question, mainly on your guidance. So if I look at your confirmed guidance for the full year, so it takes me to about EBITDA for the fourth quarter, that should be up about 20% quarter-over-quarter. And I get that for the recent quarter, you've had some seasonality, given the softness that you've seen over the summer. Would it be fair to assume of, sort of similar 50% contribution from online? Would that be a fair assumption?
You mean in terms of EBITDA margin?
Um, yes.
So yes, listen, EBITDA margins, I mean, again, if you look at it on a yearly basis, you know, we are, we're not, we're gonna, we're not gonna be very different than than what we've guided sort of for the midterm, which is around sort of 58%. It may be slightly lower, 57%. Depends, because we are right now, we're not sort of smart by a percentage point, as in it it depends on ultimately whether there's additional actions and continue to invest in, in our cost structure and even in, in marketing, in programmatic, where we've, we've spent, we've spent a bit more in Q3. But roughly in the sort of-
...this range of, on a yearly basis, is around where our midterm guidance is, where we think we will, where we sort of are, naturally, where the online EBITDA margin sits. Now, obviously, you have to do a number of assumptions depending on the business, but on a full year basis, you can assume that we should be roughly in line with our midterm guidance margin.
Thank you.
The next question is from Simon Davies of Deutsche Bank.
Yeah, morning. Just a few quick ones, just on the sports margin, trying to get an understanding of the key drivers there. What percentage of your sports revenues are from Italian football? I presume you're pretty exaggerated in terms of your exposure there, or is there a sort of more international pattern in terms of betting activity? And can you also split out what percentage of your sports franchise revenues are coming from virtuals, where one assumes the margin is going to be rather steadier?
Hi, Simon. Sports, I mean, sports, sports contribution from Italian football, that's below 20%. Like, that's market average, pretty much. I'm not sure I get the point on the second question you were asking about.
The percentage of revenues in sports franchise that come from virtuals.
That depends by brand. It varies largely between the brands. I'm not sure we have disclosed the precise number by brands, but this would be more material for, would be larger for GoldBet. It's a large contributor. It would be smaller for Better. This is also because of the type of players. In terms of blend, it's something like 70% is sports on real events, and pretty much the rest is virtual, but with some differences between brands.
Okay, thank you very much.
The next question comes from Andrea Bonfa of Banca Akros.
Hello, good morning to everybody. Most of my questions have been already answered, so if I can just ask you a detail, and I saw that your minorities went up in the Q3 . In absolute terms, they were, let's say, higher than my expectations. So I want to know what—so if you can remind us what's in that accounting item, and what are your expectations for the full year? Thank you.
Hi, Andrea. So this is the increase in the minorities because there is, so as part of the considerations for the acquisition of Ricreativo B, we offered stock in GGM. It was a cash and stock deal. So the sellers of Ricreativo ultimately rolled part of their stake into GGM, which is our sort of holding company that owns all of the gaming franchise assets.
Obviously, we maybe can take it separately on what it would look like on Q4, but you just have to one has to sort of pro rata the minority interest, not on balance sheet, but on the P&L level, for the new ownership. So it's about 2.5% of GGM.
Okay, thank you very much.
Gentlemen, at this time, there are no questions registered. Would you like to make any closing remarks?
Thank you for joining and participating in today's call. We wish you a very good end of the year to anybody. Good day.
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