Good evening. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Moncler 9 months 2018 Interim Management Statement Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Paula Durante, Investor Relations and Strategic Planning Director of Moncler. Please go ahead, Madam.
Hi, thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Moncler's 9 month 2018 interim management statement conference call. As usual, for Q1 and Q3 results, the call is hosted by myself and by our Chief Corporate and Supply Officer, Luciano Santa. Before commenting on our revenue results, I need to remind you that presentation may contain specific statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. Any forward looking statements are based upon Moncler's current expectations and assumptions of future events and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied by these statements.
In addition, please remember that the media have been invited to participate to the call in a listen only mode and that as usual, I will comment only cost and currencies trends if not otherwise stated. Let's now move to the presentation Page 3. And let me just make 2 quick comments. Moncler posted another strong set of results. In the 1st 9 months, consolidated revenues were up 23%, 18% in Q3 only with all the regions and both channels showing impressive trends.
These results have been largely supported by the great appreciation of fallwinter collections and by the success of the Moncler Genius project that is really boosting brand's momentum worldwide. Page 4, revenue breakdown by distribution channel. Both channels showed strong performances. In particular, retail sales rose by an outstanding 30 percent in 9 months or 26% in Q3, driven by excellent organic growth and by the contribution of new space. All regions showed good very good results with Asia leading the growth.
Wholesale also performed very well driven by FallWinter and Genius Collections and also by the e tailers growth, which are growing very nicely and by the development of shop in shop. And finally, as we say always last but not least, by a solid sell through across all regions. Our sales have been particularly strong in APAC, U. K. And U.
S. Based on these results and on our current visibility, we now expect the 2018 wholesale revenues to grow low double digit at constant currencies. Let me also comment that our e commerce posted double digit growth in both distribution channel. Page 5 of the presentation, revenue breakdown by region. In the 1st 9 months of 2018, global expansion continued with international markets growing 26% and accounting for 86% of total revenues.
Also, our domestic Italian market reported a sound 8% growth. Let's now move to the following pages for a detailed analysis on our revenues results by region and I start to look at EMEA including Italy, Page 6 of the presentation. In the 1st 9 months, Europe and Italy combined reported a solid 13% growth, driven by local demand and travelers. In EMEA, we continue to see excellent performances in U. K, France and Middle East.
Also Eastern Europe and Germany showed very good results. Italian revenues were largely driven by the retail channel benefiting also from the enlargement of the Monte Napoleone store and the opening of a new door in Flores, which both occurred in Q4 last year. Let's now talk about Asia, which as you know includes APAC, Japan and Korea. Asia recorded an outstanding 39% growth in the 9 months or 36% in Q3 only, with China's mainland and Korea as the strongest performer in the quarter, primarily thanks to a sound retail organic growth. We were also extremely satisfied with the results of Japan and Hong Kong, which continue to grow sound double digit.
Japan developments were driven by a robust double digit growth in the retail channel and by a solid wholesale performance notwithstanding the ongoing doors selection. Hong Kong record an outstanding results in all the stores, which grew double digit, but in particular in our Canton Road flagship, our first store in the network, which is really doing very well. Finally, Americas. Revenues in Americas increased 19%, 10% in Q3 with similar performances in the 2 main markets U. S.
And Canada. Both distribution channel in both markets posted solid growth. Retail grew continued to grow double digit also in Q3 both in Canada and U. S. Last, finally, Page 9 of the presentation.
Let me comment briefly on our store network. At the end of September, our retail stores reached 214 14 units. In the quarter, we opened 5 locations, including a store in Oslo, Norway, a new market for Montclair. 2 stores were opened in October so far, including a store in Bologna, which is actually doing very well. We confirm that and we confirm sorry that we have 2 upcoming openings in Q4.
One of that is our store in Mexico City, about which we are very excited. Therefore, in 2018, we should open 17 DOS, so 17. During Q3, we also have relocated our store in New York, so and in October, we have relocated our Sloane Street store in London. Both of them are doing are giving us very good results. And for 2019, as usual, in November, we anticipated the secure store for the next year.
I can anticipate that we have some 15.15 secondured and on top of it, in addition to it, some important relocations. In terms of Shop in Shop wholesale mono brand, we have opened 2 Shop in Shop Q3 2018 and we expect further 8 to be opened in Q4. Next year, I can anticipate that we should open something around 15 shop in shop. It's all for me right now. I will now leave the floor to your question and Luciano and I will answer to them.
Thank you.
Excuse me. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer The first question comes from Ann Lore Bismuth with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Good evening, Paula and Cineau, just a quick question. I know that you are not disclosing the speed between the in retail between the like for like performance and the contribution from NewSpace. But would it be possible to have an indication, is it fair or is it fair to assume like for like performance in Q3 in the ITs? My second question is about the FX impact, which was minus 3% in Q3.
So can you give us an indication why it was a negative? And if so, should we think about the FX impact for Q4? And also, can you give us an update about the Genius activity that the Genius project? So I know that you have a lot of activities planned for Q4 and you have secured already a number of new collection, new capsule collection for next year until May. But do you plan to introduce a new collaboration?
And when you do if it's the case, when do you plan to announce these collaborations? Thank you very much.
Yes. Hi, Alvaro. This is Luciano. About your first question, like for like indication, I mean, as you said, we don't report any number in Q3, but your calculation is fair. I mean, our like for like in Q3 was good, it was very good.
And your indication is a fair indication. About FX impact, we reported a negative FX impact in Q3, much, much lower than before because now FX are more in line with what they were last year. But you have seen correctly that some reason specifically in North America, there was a little small impact due to the fact that we posted in our sales line the impact negative or positive. And in this case, it was a negative impact of our hedging policy. We hedged the U.
S. Dollar at the time we developed our pricing policy at $1.20 And of course, as compared to the current $1.15,000,000 $1.16 $16,000,000 this delivered a couple of million negative difference that was posted in our sales line. About Genius, Genius as we said, other times is building with open doors. We started with the data designers, you know very well. Now we will announce the occupants of the new of the building for the next year in February.
Again, we can't anticipate anything. But again, the building has opened doors with new designers that may come.
Thank you very much. And just about the FX impact, so it should still be negative in going into operating policy?
In Q4, yes. So we may have a similar impact. But again, I don't want to say something that may be misleading and lower because we don't have on our margins any negative impact, because at the time we developed the pricing policy, we developed the pricing policy based on the existing level of currencies of exchange rates. At that level, whatever it is, we hedge the currencies. And this is very important because in this way, we protect our margins.
So whatever, whatever may be the currency in Q4 or next year or whatever it will be, it is only a technical accounting posting, okay? Because it's not correct to talk about a negative impact. It's just something that impact technically the top line, but not at all the gross margin. The gross margin is protected by the policy by the pricing policy and the hedging policy.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Omar Saad with Evercore. Please go ahead.
I was if you could talk about the disappointing effect as you rolled in the Moncler Genius and the collaboration and the collections, has that affected the cadence of growth? Is there something we should incorporate into our models as we think about the trajectory taking into account of those collections flowing into the stores
periodically. Hi. Ama Sarik. Could you please speak a little bit closer to the microphone, please?
Sorry about that.
Is it better? Yes. Thank you. Thanks. Luciano, can you talk about the Moncler Genius collection as those have been flowing into the stores and the consumers have the opportunity to buy them.
The timing of those collections, has it affected the cadence of sales growth in the quarter or this year, year to date? And is it something we should think about smoothing out across the quarters in terms of figuring out what the proper trajectory is for the brand globally? Thanks.
Yes, Omar. Thank you for your question. I mean, Genius is an extremely important project for our brand. It is a communication project, a product, a design project. It's not a project that we expect and expected at the time it was designed to develop important significant business.
Business developed by Genius Project overall is expected to represent mid high single digit of our total business. In Q3, I mean, we have delivered several drops, several collections of original projects. After fragment in June, we delivered Noir in July, then Craig Green, then 1952 and Simon Rocha. And in early October, we delivered Palmenjas and Pierpaolo Piccili in the mid October. All of these drops have been very, very successful.
They have generated a lot of traffic in our store. The events have been very successful. I mean, you live in New York and you may know, I think, that And what is very important, again, the traffic generated by the events was very helpful for our overall business. And so our sales have been benefiting from these events. But overall, the Genius project itself does not represent a material component of our business, and this is not what we aim it to be.
If I just may add one
quick thing.
Genius is our new way of working as Mr. Uffini several times said. So you will and you should expect monthly launches over the next years in Q4. Just to remind, to recap, we have a Moncler Grenoble Genius, which is going to be launched in November and the second drop off fragment that is going to happen in December.
Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. Are you finding that the Genius Project is bringing in new types of customers to the brand? Or is it resonating more with your existing customers?
No, Omer, this is a good point. I mean, what is very interesting of this project is that we saw in our stores coming more and more new customers, different typology and different age also because some of the drops, specifically, I mean, the first one fragment and one of the last one, which is Palmenjas, drove traffic of younger people, younger customers. So this is something that, of course, makes us happy. Of course, we saw in our stores not only new customers, but also the existing customers also because we developed a very strong clienteling activity with our existing customers. And I mean, as you know, all the different drops have a different target customer.
And so the way we have approached our customer has been different depending on the different drop. I mean, noir rather than Simorrocha for very sophisticated ladies, again, a fragment and the Palmenza's younger people, Craig Green, sophisticated men and so on. 1952 more traditional lovers of the brand.
Thank you. Best wishes.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Marianne Horne with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. It's Marianne Horne from Berenberg. I have two questions, please. The first one, if you could give us a bit of more color on the trends that been seeing in Mainland China. I can see the comments that you made on Golden Week saying that it was above the performance that you saw last year and that also Mainland China was an odd performer in Asia in Q3.
But if you could if there's any trends that are particularly interesting, if you could comment on that. And the second is on the Americas region, which in Q3 appears to have seen a bit of a slowdown. I was wondering if you could comment on the reasons for this, if it might have been weather related, what we can expect for Q4 and any other sort of commentary around that? Thank you so much.
Okay. About Chinese cluster, Chinese demand, Chinese demand has been very strong in Q3, totally in line with the first half of the year. And also, I mean, as you remember and as you said, in the 1st couple of weeks of October, the demand the Chinese demand is still very strong with the Golden Week that has been this year better than last year. Also, talking about sorry, in the mainland China specifically, the demand has been even stronger than overall. I mean, the Chinese demand has been very strong everywhere in all the regions, but in mainland China, the local market has been even stronger.
About America, the apparent slowdown, actually, I will not talk about a slowdown. In any event, it's not due to weather, even if important to highlight the fact that the weather is not particularly favorable everywhere so far, but notwithstanding the weather, notwithstanding that the winter still has to come, again, results are very strong everywhere. About the U. S, the Q3 is a quarter mostly driven by the wholesale business. And in North America, wholesale is very, very important.
We reported a very strong wholesale growth in 2nd quarter also because we anticipated some deliveries of the current full winter season in June in order to meet the partner strong expectations that want to receive a full winter product earlier in the season. What makes us happy and confident is not only the amount of sales we do with the department stores, the so called sell in, but what is very important is their sell out, which is very good and better than last year. So this is something that makes us very happy and confident about our wholesale business in the U. S. Talking about retail, retail was very good, growing double digit notwithstanding, as you stated, which is correct, a winter that still has to come.
Thank you so much. Thank you.
The next question comes from Elena Mariani with Morgan Stanley. I just wanted to go back briefly to the current trading question. And in particular, I just would like to understand how we should think about particularly the like for like development in the upcoming fallwinter season given that there is a very tough comp base ahead. Last year winter was very cold and very long and this year I mean at least in Southern Europe I mean it's still summertime. So how can we match your very positive current trading comment with these elements, which I think we should performance.
The retail performance. Is the price versus volume mix of your like for like still the same, so mostly driven by volume and then a little bit driven by price? And then the third question is about margins. I've been following you for a while and then every year you keep giving cautious messages on margins, but they keep going up. So at the moment, I think consensus is expecting for the full year another acceleration.
How we should think about this for the rest of the year and then H2? Thank you.
Okay. Your first question, Helena, about the like for like, I mean, 1st couple of weeks, October, are doing very well, honestly. I mean, as you stated, Q4, we have a very tough base on comparison because last year, our like for like was very strong also. Needless to say, but important to highlight the fact that in Q4, our sales density is already very, very high. So, of course, we are very happy with the current trend, but we are also totally cautious that the base on comparison is aggressive.
Even if I mean, if I look at the consensus, I think that the implicit like for like in the consensus is reasonable, is something that is doable. About the growth in Q3, volume price, most of the growth comes from volumes. Volumes have been generated in our retail business by an increase in traffic, but also by an increase in conversion rate and in the units per transaction. So all of the key performance indicator of our retail business have been doing very well. Margins.
Margins for the year end, looking at consensus, I mean, the margins are not easy as usual. But honestly, considering the very strong results over the 1st 9 months of the year and the very good business, current business trend in October, we are very, very positive.
Perfect. Just one quick follow-up. So you're saying that in Q3, basically 100% of your like for like has been driven by volumes. So you didn't have any price pricing component or you didn't take any price action. Is that correct?
Actually not 100%. The vast majority, let's say, let's say more than 2 served.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Melanie Flouquet with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I just wanted to maybe clarify what you meant by the Golden Week was even better delivered even better results than last year. Did you mean it's up year on year? Or did you mean it's faster growth than what you saw at the Golden Week last year?
Just to confirm what this actually means. My second question is on going back to Genius. My impression, and that was probably a wrong impression based on your earlier comment, but was that Genius was going to be bigger than cabrouges and bleu in prior year and therefore closer to 10% or 10% to 12% of sales? You're mentioning mid single digit to high single digit. So I just wanted to confirm this was right.
It is much smaller than what I had anticipated anyway. And also, maybe Q2 and Q3 being quite small quarters, could you help us understand whether that means that Genus had an over proportionate impact in these two quarters, in particular? So in other words, as a percentage of sales these 2 quarters, what would it have been? Thank you very much.
About the your first question about Golden Week, Golden Week was better than last year. It means that sales generated during that week in mainland China and in the other countries with Chinese customers were double digit higher than last year. This is the meaning of what we meant. About Genius. Genius, I mean, the comparison with the Gamarouge and Gamble, Genius volume base is expected to be bigger than Gamarouge Gamble even if again, our expectations for this year and I think for next year, but this is project will represent not project is that the project will represent not more than high single digit, okay?
So this is something that important to highlight. About yes, and of course, this project is doing very well in the e commerce, in our online, in our online site and also with the retailers. So an important portion of this business can be generated by this channel. But again, overall, Genius is not a project intended to develop important volumes. About your question, how much Genius may impact in Q2 of next year, I think that it's difficult to anticipate that.
But in any event, strategically, Genius, looking at the impact of Genius in June, for example, with the very first drop that was a fragment that was very successful. And again, not only for the volumes, but for the traffic that collection developed generated in our stores. So that helped for sure the retail business in our stores in a month, which was June that is not historically particularly strong. And so honestly, what we expect is that in Q2 of next year, Genius may generate additional traffic and consequently volumes, not just with the Genius collections themselves, but with the overall collection.
Can I just clarify, how did was Gamrouge and Bleu together then? Because I was under the impression that was already high single digits, so
No, it was less. It was about mid single digit.
Okay. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Janet Kloppenburg from JJK Research.
I just had a couple more questions. First, if you could talk about the mix of the business, what you're seeing in the outerwear business as opposed to some of the knitwear, the footwear and the accessories business? And also, I just wanted to understand how you're thinking about the trend in China as we go forward with very challenging comparisons. How you think we should think that the sequential growth rate should unfold? Thank you.
Hi, Janet. Thank you your questions. About the other categories, I mean, we keep investing in the other categories. We keep investing in the Nitro first because Nitro is doing now very well and getting better and better and growing faster than outerwear. And this is because, I mean, of everything we did in the past, the decision to invest in the technology and the technicality of this category.
Shoes are doing better and better even if we Inter. But we did we started to do last year exactly what we did 2 years or 3 years before in Nitro. We hired technical people, a new technical director. So now we are developing a know how inside the know how of this category and at the end to get the credibility on that specific category with our customers. So overall, these categories are doing well.
And I mean, we are encouraged by the results of these two categories. About your second question, I mean, going forward, of course, I mean, we don't know, Janet, we don't know. Even if, I mean, with news papers, we know what you do. What I can tell you that based on our current visibility and current means sales of today, I mean, the Chinese demand, it is still very, very good. So honestly, we are very, very happy with our Chinese customers in their local market and in all of the other different markets where they shop.
Again, everything that we hear, I mean, the duty, the duty word and about, I mean, restrictions or even stricter rules on import of goods is something that, I mean, I can't comment. I think that probably this fact or this specific small event has been, to some extent, over evaluated, overestimated. In any event, based on our current visibility, we don't see any sign of slowdown.
Great. That's nice to hear. Thank you and congrats on a great Q
you. The next question comes from Kirill De Danie with Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening, Luciano, Paolo. Thank you for taking my questions. I have 2 on China, please. Firstly, could you just give us an update on your Tmall shopping shop, which I believe was originally planned to be a pop up? How much how is that performing from a sales and traffic perspective?
How much contribution did that have in the 3rd quarter? Is that planned to be more permanent now based on what you've seen so far? And then secondly, just following up on that, obviously, you cut prices in China in the Q2. Has that had any impact on demand in the mainland market? Thank you.
About your first question about Timol. Timol, it is a very, very important project, a very, very important test now to understand the validity of this project. Honestly, based on the results, happy. Even if volume wise, I can't tell you that the impact of Timol on our volumes is material. Not yet.
Not yet. But again, the results are very good. And so we are happy so far, of course, because TIMOL started just a few weeks ago. Yes, I mean, the price reduction driven by the customer duty reduction has been honestly very, very helpful and very, very healthy to further adjust our price gap with China. It's not just a matter of impact on demand, on the Chinese demand, honestly.
But it's more a matter of, let's say, brand integrity because you know that in the past, our price cap with China was very, very high. Now it is still pretty high. Probably, we still have room for further adjustment down, but it is now much, much more reasonable also thanks to this price reduction.
Great. Thanks. Could you maybe just confirm what percentage of total the Chinese nationals make up now as a percentage of sales?
2017 was 1 third. Of course, now considering that this year, the Chinese cluster is growing faster, it may be a little bit higher this year on the Retail business.
Okay, brilliant. Thank you.
The next question comes from Francesca Di Pasquantonio with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good evening. I have one remaining question, please, which is given what you said about China and how the mainland Chinese trends are developing, I assume Daigou is not a big issue for you?
No, no, I don't think that Daigou, it is particularly relevant for our business. Also, something important to remember that we have set very strict rules in our stores in order to limit the amount of product that any customer can buy. Moreover, the Chinese demand was very strong everywhere, but even stronger in mainland China in the local market. So honestly, I don't think that they will have any material impact on our business.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Paola Carboni with Equita SIM. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hello. Can you hear me? Yes. Good afternoon, everybody.
I have a few questions left. First of all, if you can give us a rough idea of how much of your Chinese consumer base is represented by millennials, if possible? Secondly, if you can confirm your indication of an expected about 10% space contribution for the whole of full year 2018? And finally, as for the Genius contribution for 2019, I understand your point that you don't want these collections to account for a too big percentage of your revenues. But would you suggest us to think about 2019 as a year when Genius can give a further contribution to grow?
Or on the contrary, I mean, once the novelty effect disappears, there could be would you expect some normalization in the contribution of these collections? Thank you very much.
About your first question, Paola. Hi, Paola. Your first question, the contribution of millennials in our Chinese overall, they represent about 40%. This is based on our customer database. In China, we don't have a precise number, but for sure more.
They represent more than the average. The second question was space contribution. Space contribution, yes, you're right. I mean, we still plan space contribution to represent about 10%, the low double digit 10% rather than 11% more or less and no change on this. About Genius, Genius
If there is a normalization I
mean, in 2019, it's difficult to say on one side, normalization. I don't think that I mean, this will totally depend on our capability to develop something that is not normal. So on this, we have proven to be very pretty, pretty successful. And so I will not talk about normalization. I would say that next year, I mean, needless to say, but important to reiterate, a genius project will be for all the year long, not only in 4 season like this year 2018, but it will start also in the spring season.
So I think that it will be even more impactful than it has been this year.
And sorry, very last question, if I may. As far as the new categories are concerned, they used already to outperform outerwear. Would you say that this gap, so this outperformance has expanded even farther, most recently thanks to Genius or possibly also thanks to the warmer weather? Thanks.
Yes, I think so, Paola. I mean, Genius Collections, I mean, outerwear, it is still the leading category because it represents our DNA. But the other categories, specifically knitwear and cut and sawn even more, have been particularly important in these collections and also with very good results in cut and sewn, but not only also shoes, also backpacks, I mean, the categories of which we normally don't do greater volumes. But with the Genius projects, these categories have been pretty important, more important than what they normally are in our overall business.
Okay.
The next question comes from Flavio Tynide with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening. Just three quick questions, please. First one on I was wondering on wholesale. I was looking at your wholesale number, and I understand the shift has been in North America. But given the genius drops and the performance of the online multi brand, so I'm wondering whether you are still closing down accounts there.
So are you still rationalizing that channel? Secondly, you touched on the price gap in Mainland China that was dropping compared to before. Can you be a little bit more specific perhaps and tell us in terms of your price architecture today, what your best estimate is of the price gap between Mainland China and say Italy and Hong Kong and Italy, please? And lastly, just quick reminder, what percentage of your volumes now are sourced internally, please, in terms of manufacturing your Romania plant? Thank you.
Hi, Flavio. About wholesale, our wholesale business overall is growing very nicely. As Paolo said at the beginning of this call, we now expect and we now communicate that for the year end, we expect the wholesale business to grow low double digit and so to achieve the 10% whatever it will be. Notwithstanding what we have been doing for years and what you just mentioned correctly. That is the reduction, the continuous reduction selection of our existing customer portfolio in some regions more than others, in Italy, for example, rather than Japan, more in other countries.
Again, important to remember that in Italy, we used to have 1500 customers many years ago. Now we are below 400, 350, and we keep selecting our customers. So notwithstanding this ongoing selection, we keep growing. 1st, because the amount of revenues we develop for the existing remaining customers is higher than before. The average volume is higher.
2nd, because we are developing very nicely with strong double digit growth other 2 sub channels, one is the shop in shop sub channel. I mean, as we said before, we have many shop in shop, and we are planning to open other shopping shops. And this is a wholesale sub channel because shopping shops are operated by our department stores partners rather than airports, but still under our strict and close control of the business of the way they run the business. 2nd, the sub channel of the wholesale matches fashion, Net A Forte, Mr. Porter, Essence, MyTeresa and all the other retailers players in the market.
Your second question about price gap. Price gap with China is now in the region of between 40%, fifty percent, let's say, about 45% average. And next year, it will be closer to 40 than 50. So there will be a further slight reduction of the price gap. I mean, the ideal price gap, you know that other brands have a lower price gap.
I can tell you that we aim to further reduce the price gap, but we wanted to do it step by step. So probably something in the region between 30% 40% is something ideal for the next future. But as compared to what it was our price gap in the past on the slate in that and now it is much, much more reasonable. About supply chain and the sourcing, in our own factory, Romania, we develop now I mean, in 2018, about 15 percent of our total needs with a target to achieve the 20% we said that at the beginning of this project. The factory is doing very well.
The efficiency is getting better and better and the percent of insourcing will be closer and percent of insourcing will be closer and closer to 20%.
Great. Thank you very much. Thank you. [SPEAKER ARAVINDA GALAPPATTHIGE:]
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Melanie Fluke with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening. Excuse me. I have a follow-up. Sorry, you mentioned that you thought that consensus for the like for like in Q4 was reasonable. Could you share with us what you think the implicit like for like in consensus is for Q4 Q4 that is reasonable, please?
Thank you.
I mean, the implicit like for like in consensus, I mean, this is our own calculation, but it is in the region of 7%. I mean, again, 7% is not easy, okay? It's not easy, considering what I said before, the very tough base of comparison because still in Q4, we did very well. And also, something sometimes we forget is our sales necessity in Q4, which is extremely, extremely high. So it's not easy, but I think that is something that I mean, it is in we believe it is doable.
And then can I just confirm a follow-up linked to this probably the space growth you confirm that your space growth contribution from new stores will be around 10% this year? But in our space growth calculation, there is also the outlet performance. It's a balancing figure, right? There is a like for like and there is this space growth, which is actually a lot of things in it. Do you still think that this space growth, which I take out the like for like that you just mentioned, will be around double digit in the full year.
So are we talking the same thing?
I think so. I mean, the double digit, of course, low double digit. We're talking about 10%, 11%. This is what, based on our visibility, should be the space growth for this year, as we said in the past, and we confirm it now.
So this is space growth, but not only from new stores. It's everything because the outlets are also in this number, right?
It is the average for, I mean, all the new space, yes.
Okay. And so that means Q4 will have a bit bounce up of the space growth? Because if we are not mistaken, the 9 months trend was is around 7%.
Yes, a little bit. I mean, space growth, I mean, in Q3 was not far from the number we said, the double digit. So in Q4
We have 9%, but that means because H1 was lower, that means that the 9 months is around 7%, isn't it? So Q4 needs to bounce quite a bit.
Honestly, I understand where the 7 comes from. But in an event, for the year end, we still expect the 10%, let's say 10% or whatever it will be, but not far from 10% space growth.
Okay. Just the 7% comes from the fact that H1 was at 6%. Percent. So Q3, then if it was close to 10%, you end up with 9 months on 7% space worth contribution.
Yes. I mean, you remember that in H1, actually, it was higher than that. But I mean, this is technicality. But in any event
No, this is what I wanted to check out, the technicality precisely. It's a question of definition. So I just wanted to make sure that when you're talking about double digits, we're talking about the same number, the one that we analyze model compared to
the 6.
Yes. I mean, let's say that is your and mine because I mean this difference this technicality difference may be impacting in the short term. But in the year or in the fiscal year does not have any material impact. Again, you may remember that this difference comes from the fact that we relocated and expanded the many stores in 2017 that were not comparable in 2018, but they contributed to the space growth. So that's why there was this difference.
But in the 12 months, the difference will be totally meaningless. And also, I mean, there is the impact of outlets.
Thank you very much. You're
welcome.