Nexi S.p.A. (BIT:NEXI)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

May 12, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Nexi Q1 2022 financial results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paolo Bertoluzzo, CEO of Nexi. Please go ahead, sir.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Thank you, and good morning to everyone. Welcome to our call for Q1 results for 2022. As usual, I'm here with our CFO, Bernardo Mingrone and Stefania Mantegazza, who is leading our investor relations activities as well. Here with us some colleagues in case there are specific issues that you want to cover that require their support. As usual for our quarterly Q1 and Q3 calls, I will give you a quick update on volume dynamics, and I'll also spend a few words on key business updates. Then I will hand over to Bernardo, who will be covering financial results, and I will come back for closing. Obviously we will have as usual time for your questions.

Let me start with the key messages of the day on page three of the document that was made available. Three key messages as always. First of all, we've seen an accelerated volume growth in the Q1 across all our geographies, and this acceleration has been continuing throughout the quarter into the month of April. As far as Italy is concerned, we have seen a double-digit year-on-year growth and as well double-digit versus 2019. In particular, we've been growing 38% versus last year in April.

At the same time, we have seen a double-digit volume growth year- on- year, both in the Nordics and in Germany, in the DACH region more broadly, with a further acceleration in April that has been at 29% up for the Nordics and more than 50% up for Germany. The travel sector is continuing to recover nicely. It is now close to 70%. It has been actually in the quarter, close to 75% of what it was, in 2019 pre-COVID. In the month of April we have seen a further improvement as well. Like we observed in the recent past, SMEs have been accelerating, an even stronger way compared to the larger merchants.

Last but not least, we continue to see acceleration of the shift from cash to digital payments across all our geographies. Second key message, in the quarter we have seen strong financial performance. In particular, revenues have been growing at a nominal rate of 7% or slightly above 7%. The underlying number is actually more than 9% growth if you exclude some exceptional project work that we had last year in Italy. So it would be more than 9% growth. This is actually despite the fact that the Italian market for us, as you know, accounts for more than half of the revenues, has seen in the Q1 of this year a slower pace of reopenings compared to other European geographies. In particular, merchant services did grow about 13%.

This would be a 15% net of those projects that I've mentioned. In the next geographies, we have been growing close to 20%, 19-something%. Last but not least, as far as EBITDA is concerned, EBITDA has grown more than 17%. Actually, if you neutralize the effect of last year projects, this growth would be at around 20%. With this 17% we are actually seeing margin expansion, which is 3.5-4 percentage points above last year EBITDA margin. Last but not least, we continue to progress in the creation of what we call internally the new Nexi. We confirm our commitment from the beginning of the year of delivering at least EUR 100 million cash synergies in the year. At the same time, we continue to shape our portfolio.

We have just announced the full acquisition of orderbird, a nice software company, German software company specialized in software for restaurants and more broadly for the hospitality sector. This company is a leader in this space and is for us strategic investment. At the same time, we continue to focus our portfolio more and more on what is core and presenting stronger growth opportunities. We have recently communicated also the sale of the non-SEPA clearing business in Italy. This is something that by the way was also connected to the antitrust remedies that we committed to in the context of the combination with SIA. Over the next weeks and months, we will continue to focus the portfolio, dismissing the businesses that are non-core.

All in, we confirm the ambition for the year that as a reminder, we did set, back in February for the revenues growth anywhere between 7%-9% for the year and for EBITDA a growth anywhere between 13%-16% for the year. Now let me start with volumes, page four. In here, we made a change compared, to the past. We have moved, to year-on-year comparison. So the numbers that you see in the page do compare 2022 with the same period of 2021. We understand that's the way, the market would like to start seeing, these dynamics, to help you as much as we can.

In the backup of this document, you also find the usual chart that we had in the past that we're comparing this with 2019 as well. Now starting with Italy, you see that Italy has been accelerating throughout the last three-four months, and in April was growing actually 38% compared to same period of last year. This acceleration has been mainly driven by a super strong acceleration in the high impact sector, including travel, hotels, restaurants, and those type of sectors.

If you want to compare these numbers, the April numbers in particular, with pre-COVID, growth has been about 24%, well supported by a continuous very strong growth in basic services at 38%, but also a very strong rebound in the high impact sectors that are actually already 20% above pre-COVID levels. On the right here, you also see the usual deep dive when we separate the performance of the Italian cards versus the one of the foreign cards, the cards used by the visitors to Italy coming from abroad.

Here you see that, while the Italian cards versus last year are continuing to grow at 26%, actually 29% versus pre-COVID, the foreign cards are accelerating in a very, very radical way, growing more than 400% in April, and basically now being very close to the pre-COVID levels as well. Bottom left, when it comes to the Nordics, also in the Nordics, we are seeing similar dynamics, acceleration over the last few months, volumes up 29% in April compared to last year. Again here, well supported by a strong acceleration from our impact sectors at 73%. If we compare ourselves with pre-COVID, also nice growth here of 17% for the total, strongly supported by the basic consumption sectors at almost 50% growth versus pre-COVID.

Also, now adding the high impact sectors also in the positive space at +8%. Last but not least, Germany. Germany, where as always want to underline as in terms of volumes, not in terms of revenues, but in terms of volume, a high weight of the travel sector. Volumes have been growing at around 50% throughout the last few months above last year. Again, here, strongly supported by a very fast recovery in high impact that is above 100% versus last year. If we compare ourselves with pre-COVID, volumes are still at -27% net of some businesses in the travel sector that we have decided to discontinue.

It will be basically more or less back to pre-COVID levels, strongly supported by the basic sector that is actually up more than 40% versus pre-COVID. That's the picture that we see on volumes, and we expect this dynamic and this recovery to continue throughout the rest of the year. Moving to the next page, let me just give you a quick update on the key progresses that we've seen over the last few months in the merchant services sector that accounts for more than 50% of our revenues. Here we do it by segment. Let me start with SMEs. SMEs represent more than 50% of our revenues in the merchant services space. Volume had been up 36% compared to last year.

Strong acceleration, as we said before, as shops do reopen. Here we've seen a very good performance across all geographies with a special acceleration in Germany and in Poland. We have seen a continued success and also acceleration of our more recent digital proposition both in Germany and in Italy, SmartPay and the SmartPOS in Italy. Third, we have launched our SoftPOS tap-on-phone proposition in the Nordics and in Hungary, and now we are preparing for the launches in Italy, in Germany, and other geographies as well during the rest of the year.

Again, this is a very important proposition because it is targeting both the new to card merchants that want to start with a light proposition, but also is a great complement add-on for larger merchants that need to have the ability to collect payments across their stores or across their restaurants and bars. Last but not least, a specific focus over the last few months and that we continue in the future around partnerships. We continue to progress our partnership portfolio, both with cross-market leaders but also vertical specialists. I think we named in the past a few of them, and you find on the bottom right some names.

In the context of these specific efforts with software companies, that's where you should position our acquisition of orderbird. The strategy is not to go out and buy a software across the board, not at all. That will vary by vertical, that will vary by geography as well. We really believe that this small acquisition is really giving us the possibility to go much deeper in this space, and by the way, in the sector that is the most advanced when it comes to software and payments integration that is actually hospitality and restaurants, even more specifically. Second area, e-commerce, that accounts for about 20% of our revenues in merchant services.

Here, volume growth has been about 24%, starting from a level last year that was already very, very high and in acceleration. Here, we've seen a continued strong performance of our advanced Easy Collect PSP proposition in the Nordics, and is now accelerating also in Germany, where we've launched towards the end of last year. We continue to see good traction for our account to account propositions, both in Poland and in Finland. We also progress on our buy now pay later offer in Germany through Ratepay. Ratepay, in particular, signed an exclusive relationship to provide white label invoice payments with PayPal that we consider very strategic.

Last but not least, we continue the evolution of our proposition in Italy, especially, I would say, for mid SMEs, where we are integrating more and more some capabilities that we have in Nets, such as, for example, one click checkout or Collect PSP capabilities. Last but not least, our large merchants that do account for about 10% of our revenues. Here, the volume growth has been also nice and strong, about 19% in the quarter. Here, as you know, our focus is mainly on the large domestic and regional omni- channels or omni-channel merchants. On the right, you find some of the names of the more recent key wins or renewals with a specific focus in the retail grocery apparel space.

At the same time, we continue to progress also on cross-border merchants, where we see a good traction as well. We are happy to underline the fact that, on the back of the combination with SIA, we are actually very pleased to see that the combination of our capabilities and the former Nexi capabilities and SIA capabilities allowing us really to win new business and expand our ability to serve large complex corporates in Italy. Obviously, we'll consider what we can export of these in the other geographies as well. Last but not least, also in this space, partnerships are very, very important. We are progressing in integrating with ERP and CRM platforms for larger merchants as well.

Here on the right, you see the name of SAP, which is clearly an important partner in this space, but many others will follow as well. Now, let me stop there, and I hand over to Bernardo, who will take you through the financials.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Thank you, Paolo, and good afternoon to you all. I'm starting from slide seven with an overview of group revenues and an EBITDA. Before we comment on the strong revenue growth we've seen in the quarter, let me just underscore how important it is to understand comps in terms of measuring and benchmarking performance against 2021. This is true for us within Nexi and the various geographies we're in, and it's true for benchmarking our performance against competitors. It really makes a difference as to what stage of the COVID cycle a country was in last year in terms of degree of openness or closure of shops in terms of how our performance looks compared to last year.

Really, it's always important to understand comp this time around. It's all the more important. Within this context, I think, you know, revenues grew very healthily. We added almost EUR 50 million of revenues year-on-year, and this translated into an almost identical increase in EBITDA. You see growth in revenues is at 7%, which is within our guidance range. Specifically to Nexi, comp is important because last year we had highlighted how we had some one-off nature revenues coming from a project driven by the integration of UBI into the banks that bought Intesa and BPER. That was booked almost entirely in the month of March.

If we normalize for that one-off revenue, growth in the quarter revenues would actually be north of 9%, so above the high end of our guidance. As I said, this revenue growth translated in almost euro for euro increase in EBITDA. So EBITDA grew 17.4%. If we normalize for that one-off in 2021, that growth will actually be 20%. And this fed through into a margin, which was accreted by 375 basis points in the rounding. So you lose it's 4 percentage points overall rounded. But a strong, I would say, operating and financial performance in this quarter.

I think when I speak of comp, just remember, I mean, you know, it will be true in the H2 of the year. We see an acceleration throughout the H1 of the year. Q2 , which further accelerates compared to the Q1 , and in the H2 , a return to normalization, given that last year things were much more normal in terms of degree of openness, given the success of vaccination throughout Europe. Moving on to slide eight, in Merchant Services & Solutions. Within the overall growth we highlighted earlier, Merchant Services & Solutions grows 13%. If we normalize for the Italian component of that one-off, it would be 15%.

This is driven primarily by volume growth. We see international schemes growing north of 20% year-on-year, even if we include domestic schemes with north of 20% on acceleration of the value of transactions across the group. Within this context, I think Nets performed particularly well with the growth of 19% in terms of its merchant services division in the Q1 against the Q1 of 2021. Again, as I said, comps help in that respect, but the performance was very strong at Nets too. Within the volume growth, I would highlight, and I think you saw it earlier, in Paolo's slide on business, we have SMEs which are accelerating faster than LACAs, and that's obviously good for us.

In general, I would say physical commerce has accelerated faster than e-commerce, which is, I'd say, something we aren't normally used to. Again, a sign of the times in terms of how COVID has impacted the year-on-year dynamics. A strong quarter for Merchant Services, which is more than half of our business and is 2/3 driven by volume growth. Moving on to Cards and Digital Payments in slide nine, you see here we have a 5% growth in the quarter, 7% adjusted for the one-off, again, driven by the increase in volumes in both in terms of managed transactions and the volume of transactions.

In Italy, we have an ongoing phenomenon, which is particularly accretive to us, which is a shift from domestic debit to international debit. For us, it's like acquiring new client effectively given the amount of work we do on international debit compared to domestic debit. We have won interesting clients in the Nordic regions through the Nets platform. Our focus remains on delivering CVM propositions to our customers outside of Italy, building on our experience in Italy and trying to extend the licensing relationship we have with many Italian banks also outside of the Italian perimeter, which is also underlying some of our ambitions in terms of synergies, and we will update you on that as time goes by.

Digital Banking & Corporate Solutions, smaller of our divisions, was most impacted in terms of the year-on-year comparison by the merger of UBI to BPER and to Intesa twofold. One, we had, you know, project revenues last year in DBS, but we also lost an ERP business, which is corporate banking, for Intesa and the Intesa client, which we don't do for them and we used to do for UBI. If we normalize for this, performance was more or less flat in the year. In general, I would, you know, highlight how, you know, even EUR 1 or 2 million of lower revenues has an impact here given the size, the rev size of this business compared to the rest.

Slide 11 shows, you know, geographically how our performance was in terms of the top line. Italy would have been 9% normalizing for the one-off, Nordics at 7.5%, 0.6%. DACH and Poland with a very strong 20% top line growth helped by Poland, but also Germany performed well in Southeastern Europe at 6%. Moving on to costs, I think obviously, to be fair in the representation, we should look at costs grossed up or actually, taking into account the effect of the project related costs that I was normalizing for in the revenues. If you look at it that way on a like for like basis, costs grew 2%.

Essentially, this is driven by investment we're making in human capital in areas where we want to grow our business, and we'd spoken about that in the full year results when we said we're going to invest in certain areas and reinvest part of our synergies, and you see that here. Part of the growth in HR costs is also to do, again, with comp and then, I mean comp in terms of the fact that, you know, last year COVID had a greater impact on Nets performance and compared to its budget than it did for Nexi. Therefore, we had a benefit in the H2 of the year in terms of variable comp accruals at Nets.

You remember the outstanding performance in the H2 of Nets' EBITDA growth, also helped by these cost reduction initiatives. This year, we're performing well, and we're accruing to budget in terms of comp, and that feeds into the HR cost line. Overall operating costs would otherwise have been pretty much flat. I'd say 2% up overall, including HR. This is ultimately together with the fact that the structure of the cost base is three-quarters fixed and then one quarter variable is what feeds into the operating margin accretion that I mentioned earlier. Again, remember what I said about the phasing in the year. So we have, you know, we gave guidance in terms of margin accretion for 2020, 2022. In the quarter, we're doing better than that guidance.

As I said, in the year, we have the benefit early on of synergies as they're coming due. They were front-loaded, thanks to the work we did last year. In the H2 of the year, we have a normalization, which includes also the fact that we are investing, as I said, part of these synergies to grow businesses which are core to us. Slide 13 gives you leverage. We are at 3x if you include synergies. We'll speak to guidance in a second. We refinanced the SIA debts, completed the refinancing of the SIA debts. You see the gross indebtedness coming down for the reimbursement of that component. Our mix is still three-quarters, one quarter fixed to floating.

I would hand the floor back to Paolo for guidance and concluding remarks.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Thank you, Bernardo. As I anticipated at the beginning of the call, we're just confirming our ambition for 2022. Let me go through the key elements of it. Net revenue is expected to grow 7%-9% in the year with a double-digit growth in Merchant Services & Solutions. By the way, you've seen very, very visible in the Q1 already. EBITDA growing 13%-16% with at least two percentage points EBITDA margin expansion. Ordinary CapEx in the 8%-10% range, non-recurring items with transformation integration costs actually decreasing very, very rapidly to basically half the level of what they were in 2021.

An overall investment of CapEx in the transformation integration of about EUR 300 million in the period up to 2024-2025 on top of the ordinary CapEx. As Bernardo just underlined continuing the organic deleveraging with a target net debt of about 2.5 x EBITDA, including revenue synergies, with the current perimeter. Let me just close. Again, reiterating the three key messages of the day. We are seeing very strong volume recovery across all geographies with now very visible recovery also in the travel sector as well, and then more broadly in the high impact sectors.

Number two, strong performance in the quarter on the top line, but most importantly, I would say, on the EBITDA line, despite a not easy comparison for Italy in particular with last year. Last but not least, continued progress in delivering the integration of our new company as a combination of delivery of synergies and continuous optimization of our portfolio. On the back of this, we are confirming our guidance. Let me just conclude before opening for Q&A that we currently plan to have our Capital Markets Day in September 2022. We'll be looking through your schedules and the many, many conferences that you are supposed to attend in the summer.

We felt that, probably the H2 of September, this year is a good and maybe quieter moment for having our Capital Markets Day. You will be soon receiving a more specific invitation for that. Let me stop there and let us open for Q&A as usual.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Alastair Nolan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Alastair Nolan
Equity Research Analyst and VP, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks very much. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple from me. The first would be just a little bit more detail, if you could provide it, on the exceptional projects you mentioned in relation to some M&A last year. Is that specifically just in the Q1 , or does that overlap into the Q2 at all? The second question would just be around the acceleration that you're expecting in the Q2 . What, I guess what's informing that? Obviously you've got strong volume recovery, but there is, from what I can see, a 15 point tougher comp in the Q2 . So just kind of keen to see what's underpinning the confidence on the acceleration there.

Just finally, on pricing trends in merchant services, can you comment on kind of the volume versus revenue and what that means in terms of take rates and essentially what are the moving parts within that? Really helpful. Thank you.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Hi, Alastair. Let me take the second and third, and we'll then hand over to Bernardo for the first and any further comment he may have. On Q2 acceleration, I really want to underline again what Bernardo said. I think the best way to look at our trends is always to compare them with a normal year. Unfortunately, the last normal year was 2019. Compared to that, we expect to see a continued acceleration throughout the year, which is consistent with the continued volume growth plus the effect of our initiatives. While when you compare yourself with 2021, it's always a bit complicated also because growth rates of 2021 compared to growth rates of 2020, that was also not a normal year.

It's really tricky to look at it that way. You should see a continued acceleration is actually what we have in our own internal plans. As far as prices is concerned, we don't observe, we're not observing any particular new news. Obviously, take rates in this phase will technically decrease because by definition, given the fact that we have a portion of our revenues a bit less than half of our revenues, but we have a big portion of our revenues that are fixed and driven by the install base.

Obviously, when the volume recover, volume grow as fast as they are growing right now, by definition, the take rate calculated as total revenues divided by volume by definition goes down. On the exceptional projects, Bernardo?

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Yeah, just a bit of background for Alistair maybe. Last year or two years ago, actually, now an Italian bank called UBI was bought by Intesa, and then it was carved up and part of it was sold through BPER. All three banks were our clients, different service models that we did for the three banks. We did a bit of everything for UBI. The work necessary to migrate clients, activities, volumes from UBI effectively to Intesa and BPER generated project-related fees for us just north of EUR 10 million, EUR 12 million or so, something like that, which was, you know, spread across our three divisions.

As I said, you know, we generated those revenues primarily in March and, you know, it might happen again if another bank is bought and their clients and they get merging to others. You know, we typically have kind of recurring project work, but given the size of that one, and the one-off nature of it, we thought it was sensible to highlight it last year and do the same this time. By the way, the impact on EBITDA is obviously much, much lower because it was primarily, I'd say, you know, cost plus kind of work we do for them.

Alastair Nolan
Equity Research Analyst and VP, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

The next question is from James Goodman with Barclays. Please go ahead.

James Goodman
Research Analyst and Managing Director, Barclays

Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you. I wonder if I could follow up on the outlook for the rest of the year and just push you to convert a little bit further the increasing volume trajectory versus 2019 that you anticipate through the rest of the year into year-on-year phasing of growth in the merchant services business at a revenue level. I mean, specifically, I'm looking ahead to the Q3 comparative, where on my calculations, I think you were about 16% above 2019 levels on net revenue already. So if you're about 12% or so ahead now, it would look like you'd need a very significant acceleration in Q3. Wondered if you could just give us a little bit more specific commentary on the phasing of the revenue growth.

Secondly, just digging into the Italian performance in merchant services in the quarter in a little bit more detail. I mean, you flagged a very strong Nets performance, which, you know, does imply a softer performance, even excluding the contract effect in Italy. You know, you had some volume data at a recent conference that was showing a sort of a higher volume growth rate than you ended up with for the month of March. I think it was 22% in Italy, the same as it was in February. Why are we not seeing more of a sequential acceleration there in Italy in March and even into April, where you're looking at 24%? Those are the two questions. Just a quick clarification finally on the pro-competitive effects, Bernardo.

Last year when I look at that, it was seemingly in the Cards & Digital Payments business and in the Digital Banking & Corporate Solutions. This year you're calling it out in the Merchant Services & Solutions. I just wondered, has it sort of moved around or am I misremembering that? Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Sorry, I had you on mute there. Sorry, it was in all three of the divisions. I can't remember. I think we put a bullet point in all three, possibly. I don't think we quantified the impact last time around, but I think we highlighted it. It's in all three divisions, and if there's any confusion there, I apologize. There's nothing moving around, given that it's a historic number, obviously. With regards to the first two questions, what I said earlier, I go back to that. I think, you know, what we'll have in terms of comp against last year is acceleration in the first two quarters, greater in the Q2 than in the Q1.

It's essentially due to the lockdown dynamics we experienced in Italy, which is still half of our business or just north of half of our business. Last year we had an early Easter and when we had lockdowns just before and just after Easter in Italy and at the beginning of January. You know, we had this effect in the Q1 and at the beginning of the Q2 . The difference in the degree of openness in Italy. It would sound like the comp would have been easier in Italy than other countries in Europe, where maybe there's less closing down.

The truth is that in Italy, we still had throughout the first part of the year, and today we're still wearing masks in Italy compared to many other European countries. The degree of openness of the economy is lower than what is being experienced in other European countries. Right? We have less of a tailwind in terms of the comp in the Italian market, which as I said, is half of the overall business. In the H2 of the year and from the H2 , I would say from the Q2 onwards, everything goes back to normal. In the Q2 , expect the Q2 to be strong, to be the best quarter in the year in terms of overall growth.

This returns to a more normal level in Q3 and Q4 as the terms of comparison are more homogeneous. I hope you follow that and that makes sense.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Yeah. Maybe if I can add, James, a comment on your volume question, and here, let me refer to the page with comparison against 2019 that is in the annex of the document. It's actually page 22. You see that actually besides the individual week here, if you look at the monthly basis, actually we continue to see progression here. It was 14% growth in January, 22% in February, 22% in March, 24% in April, and we see it continuing by the week. When you look at the graph, you see that actually it is supported by a continued strong performance in the basic sector. That is not accelerating, but it's actually as high as 40% or more already.

A faster recovery of the high-impact sector, January -2%, February 12%, March 15%, April 22%, and a gradual, even if slower recovery of the discretionary consumption sector, -4%, +7%, +2%, +7%, where the one sector that is still struggling, by the way, we serve this a little bit across geographies, so there is clearly an industry-specific topic is actually closing. So that's dynamic if you look at it on a monthly basis more than on a weekly basis. Again, if you translate it into revenues and if you again net this effect from last year, extraordinary projects, and you look at the underlying trends also in Italy in the quarter has in fact been would have been double-digit when it comes to Merchant Services .

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Merchant Services, yeah.

James Goodman
Research Analyst and Managing Director, Barclays

Okay. Thank you both. Appreciate it.

Operator

The next question is from Josh Levin with Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Josh Levin
Equity Research Analyst, Autonomous Research

Hi, good afternoon. I have two questions. Both Nexi and Worldline have talked up the opportunity in Germany. To what extent does that mean Nexi and Worldline will compete against each other in Germany as opposed to competing against other players there, or just competing against cash? The second question, with your final purchase of orderbird, how are you thinking about other software purchases? And if you are thinking about them, which verticals strike you as the most full of opportunity? Thank you.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Hi, Josh. Thank you for both questions. Actually, pretty core to us. Listen, for us, Germany is a great opportunity, a very, very large market that is still under-penetrated, when it comes not only to penetration of digital payments, but also to sophistication of solutions that are available in the market. Honestly, we are very much a challenger. Depending on how you want to measure our market share, we are anywhere 10%-20% with an opportunity to grow from our customer base on national debit on terminals, and then obviously potentially win more market share as well.

Not only in physical but also most importantly, in e-commerce. Honestly, we don't measure ourselves in competition with Worldline. That there's a much larger position there. We're just going for, you know, capturing the growth of the market that we believe will be very, very important. Then, you know, gradually winning more space in the market with our customers and with new customers as well, with a specific focus, again, on e-commerce and the SME, the mid SME space. When it comes to software, I said it before, but I'm happy to clarify it further. We consider these.

Well, first of all, if you look at software and payment convergence around the world, not in Europe, but also in the most advanced markets from this point of view, most of it is actually happening in the hospitality sector and is actually happening as far as the SME space is concerned, at least that is the most relevant for us, in restaurants and bars. You know?

This is the reason why we did capture this opportunity of basically acquiring full ownership of orderbird in Germany on the back of, by the way, the fact that we're already owners from the Nets combination of a share of that capital, because we really believe that this vertical is the one vertical that by far is the one where we see most of this dynamic over the next few years. We wanted to test more directly in ourselves how it works and the dynamics and see, you know, how much these can work in the market.

This is focused on Germany, and clearly, we will work to penetrate the market faster and deeper in the SME segment in Germany and probably export it to a few other geographies. We have our own priority region, but that is not necessarily, you know, the core strategy going forward. At the moment, we don't have immediate plans to go beyond this, while actually our core and main strategy is to continue to develop partnerships across our geographies, starting from Italy and the Nordics, with software companies that share our view for the market, and they are very keen to work with us to develop this space.

Josh Levin
Equity Research Analyst, Autonomous Research

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Hannes Leitner with UBS. Please go ahead.

Hannes Leitner
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yes, thanks for letting me on. I got also a couple of questions. The first one maybe on the guidance. You confirmed the guidance, but then with all those adjustments, is it fair to say that you based the guidance on excluding those project revenues, or is that purely on underlying and including them? The second question is around Merchant Services and the related revenues. The volume has been over 20%, revenues has been lower in that division. Can you maybe talk about that relation? I know it's maybe related to installed base. You don't count the project related cost as part of the installed base revenues. The last bit on travel, I think you mentioned something around winding down some business, if I heard correctly.

Maybe you can drill there a little bit deeper. Where you expect travel then to come in compared to 2019. Some airlines, they even speak about better bookings now than 2019 levels. Maybe also in terms of travel and bookings. Thank you.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Hi, Hannes, and thank you for the question. On guidance, no, I want to be very clear, where the guidance is consistent with nominal. What will account for our guidance calculation at the end of the day is the 7% for this quarter. The reason why we have underlined also the 9+, net of the effect of last year was actually to give you a better view of the underlying dynamics of the business without being distorted. We clearly knew from the very beginning of the year that we had this element of coming from last year, and therefore our declared ambition takes it into full account already.

As far as merchant services revenues are concerned, as I said, if you net this element, actually our Merchant Services revenue are going up a bit more I think than 15%. That is very much consistent with the 20% + growth of volumes, given the mix where basically we have two-thirds of the revenues that are associated with volumes and a third that is more associated with the install base that is also slowly growing, but clearly at a different pace compared to revenues on these travel related contracts that we have been discontinuing over the last few quarters. Bernardo , if you want to give a comment.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Yeah. As I was saying, it's primarily related to airlines in Germany, large German airlines, if you want, where the risk-return profile, in our view, wasn't meeting the criteria we've set ourselves. We chose to give away. The big impact on some volume is very little, I would say, in terms of the revenues.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Absolutely. I want to underline this because we never mentioned this when we talk revenues, because the impact on revenue is totally marginal. Volume wise is our largest merchants with the large volumes, very, very low take rate.

Hannes Leitner
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. Thank you. Just quickly, if I can squeeze in a follow-up on Italy, maybe you can disaggregate the parts of Nexi underlying. If you adjust for that EUR 7 million or EUR 12 million or EUR 11 million revenue, you grew around 9%. That's also definitely slower than your historic trends in Italy. Maybe you can disaggregate it between Nexi and SIA's contribution.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

No, we're not going to give that level of detail. I mean, it's, we've merged the two companies and we're now monitoring them that way, so I wouldn't be able to. I mean, it'd take a lot of effort to try and, you know, carve out again the data. But I mean, Nexi, I mean, merchant services, as Paolo was saying, is growing at 10.5%-11%, if you want, if you normalize for that in Italy. If you normalize for that project related work, somewhere in that region. It is slower growth in the 19% in Nets. But again, think of comp and the fact that in Italy, I think we were slower into COVID, slower out, slower throughout, and therefore, the benefit we have.

We monitor internally with an index called the Stringency Index, which shows how the improvement year-on-year in the quarter, 2022 compared to 2021 is lower in Italy than it is in many of the other geographies. That simply explains the pace of exit, the pace of growth year-on-year. It really is as simple as that. The proof of the pudding, frankly speaking, is in Italy. If you look at similar geographies to the former Nets group and other competitors have, you know, disclosed their results, you'd see that they are very similar.

You know, maybe Nets a little better, but it's really got to do with you know, where we were last year and where we are this year in terms of people's ability to access shops, spend, travel, all these things here.

Hannes Leitner
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Great. Thank you. Good luck.

Operator

The next question is from Alexandre Faure with BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Alexandre Faure
Equity Research Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for letting me on. I had two questions, if I may. One is a bit technical, just a clarification. I think in Digital Banking & Corporate Solutions, you touched on those IT project revenue last year. I think in the slides you also mentioned an EID project where basically you're migrating platform. Is this gonna be a bit more of a lasting effect over the next few quarters? Or do we need to lap Q1 before those effects go away? And how should we think of growth in Digital Banking in that context?

My second question is kind of wondering if you could remind us of revenue model in Cards and Digital Payments, and in particular, how we should think of the impact of inflation on your transaction-related revenues and on your installed base-related revenues in this particular division. Thank you very much.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Hi, Alexandre Faure. Paolo here. Jump in, Bernardo [Mingrone], if you want to add anything here. On Digital Banking & Corporate Solutions, there are basically three effects in the quarter. The first one is the project work from last year that Bernardo just mentioned. There's a second one that is in particular on one or two products. We have the effect of banking consolidation from last year that, where banks, the acquiring bank is actually in-sourced on the service that we were offering to the acquired bank. Therefore, we have a step here that will continue going forward of revenues that we had in the past and we will be missing.

When it comes to EID, this is something that we did highlight also, I think, last quarter, because it's something that we were very much aware of. This has to do with the fact that, Nets in Denmark, we are serving basically the country on the e-identity service. There is ongoing evolution of migration to a next generation platform that we have developed for the government, for the country itself. This migration, the pricing of the new one, it is a new next generation technology type of thing, is actually lower than the previous one. That's something, therefore, that over time you will see actually continuing.

The real one-off effect is the comparison on first element. Again, here we're talking about low single-digit million euros of impact, but clearly on the business unit they are visible when you look at growth rates for the quarter. On the revenue model for Cards & Digital Payments here, I think and its exposure to inflation, it is clearly less exposed to inflation. I would say in the positives. Or better. You know that in Merchant Services & Solutions, we have a large part of our revenues where they are exposed to end customer pricing, and therefore, if prices go up for the same volumes, actually our revenues go up.

In Cards & Digital Payments, the volume related revenues are actually a smaller portion of the total, about a third. So it's the other way around compared to merchant services. That third is a bit less exposed to inflation because some of it is actually number of transaction related. As well as when you look at the rest of it, with cards and the install base, that is also it's contractualized in long-term contracts, normally with the banks, and that is also less exposed to inflation.

Alexandre Faure
Equity Research Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Sébastien Sztabowicz with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Sébastien Sztabowicz
Head of IT Hardware and Semis Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Hello, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. It seems you have not seen any specific impact from tougher macro environment so far in your volumes. What kind of correlation to GDP you have on your business at Nexi on a general, I would say, standpoint? And the second one, you confirm double-digit growth on Merchant Services & Solutions for this year. What are you expecting for the two divisions, the other, CDP and digital banking? And last thing, if I may, starting with Italy on a rather slow growth, looking at your main geography for 2022, which geography are you expecting to outperform the group average, grow in line with the group average, and maybe underperform the group average in 2022? Thank you.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Hi, Sébastien. As Bernardo prepares for this one, he's a bit more sophisticated and he's looking for the backup to make sure that we give you a more precise answer. Obviously, we have a good feeling for that, but we want to try and help. Let me just take the first one. Listen, historically, the correlation in between, I mean, the GDP and our top line growth has been fairly light, and for a strong reason, which is the fact that, at the end of the day, you know, when your volumes grow 10%, 12%, 16%, a GDP growing half a percentage point more or less is really difficult to be perceived.

Historically, we've been quite resilient to these effects. By the way, this time, this is also coming with inflation that may also have instead some positive unitary price component, as we just discussed. To give you, if you like, a very clear and simple example for that, we have obviously before closing the numbers for Q1 also reviewed our projections for the rest of the year, and they're actually in line with what they were at the beginning of the year.

Despite the fact that, unfortunately today we also have a war in Ukraine and there are, macro tensions around, more than what it was at that point in time, internally, we're not changing our financial plans for the year. As a consequence, we're not changing our guidance either. On the geographies, Bernardo.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Yeah. In general, I mean, I think, as you said, double-digit growth in the low teens for Merchant Services, whereas Cards & Digital Payments is something which will grow in the mid-single digit range, whereas DBS, we're expecting to be, broadly speaking, flat. Frankly speaking, no one's, you know, EUR 1 million smarter at this stage of the year in terms of where we'll end up, but broadly, I'd say flat. Within this, I'd say that, in terms of the geographies that we expect to perform best, I'd say I'd highlight DACH in general.

I think DACH and Poland are the two geographies that will best perform in terms of, and I'm talking about acquiring, I would expect them to perform better than the rest, and then followed by Italy and Nordics. On issuing, actually, it's slightly different. In issuing, we expect Italy to perform pretty well compared to the Nordics, again, within the overall group. I would say sticking to acquiring, which I think is where the question was leading to, that is, those are the areas where we'd expect outperformance in terms of top line growth.

Sébastien Sztabowicz
Head of IT Hardware and Semis Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Italy is likely to go in line with the group?

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

In terms of Merchant Services , I'd say Italy is pretty much given that it's half of the business, roughly. I mean, you'd expect it to be very close to what the average for the group is. Then we'll have, you know, DACH and Poland more and,

Sébastien Sztabowicz
Head of IT Hardware and Semis Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

The Nordics less.

Sébastien Sztabowicz
Head of IT Hardware and Semis Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

That's perfect. Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question is from Antonin Baudry with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Antonin Baudry
Sell-side Equity Analyst, HSBC

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you to take my questions. I want you to come back about inflation on the impact of inflation picking up on consumer behavior. I wanted to know if inflation change what the consumers purchase and if the shift of the what they are buying have an impact on your take rate. I would have a second question on the ability you have to pass some price increase on this inflationary environment, whether it is on your transaction-based revenues or on your installed base. My third question is about your performance in e-commerce.

If you can split out the Ratepay performance, if you could exclude the Ratepay or highlight what Ratepay recorded in Q1, it would be useful to have the underlying growth of your e-commerce business. Thank you very much.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Thanks, Antonin. Inflation. For starters, I think just to, and actually, Paolo and I have contrasting views on this one. I think we are already seeing an impact on inflation in our numbers because the average ticket size per card, and if I just leave the analysis to Italy, which I think is a good proxy for the whole group on this. The average ticket per card-

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Per transaction.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Per transaction, sorry, has historically always decreased 5%-10% every year. You'd start the year at, you know, EUR 80 per card, you'd end it at just north of EUR 70, and so on and so forth. This year we're actually flat, right? I mean, the average ticket is not decreasing. Now, this can be due to a number of factors, one of which, you know, increasing prices of the things people are buying. Now, whereas we've observed that, I haven't observed in the data we are looking at, even though it requires further mining and analysis, doesn't suggest there's a shift in consumption from one good to the other. We're not seeing more coffee being consumed and less, I don't know, other stuff.

I think the only relevant shift in consumer behavior that is worth highlighting, Paolo mentioned earlier, which is on clothing, right? This is true throughout the group. We've seen clothing volumes, and that may not be to do with inflation.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Yeah. Honestly, this was the case also in the past. I think we did discuss it several times with some of you and many investors. This is something that has started with, unfortunately, COVID. Obviously also did recover a lot as we're exiting COVID, but still, remains probably the most depressed sector, and therefore I would not really connect it to inflation.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

In terms of our ability to pass the effects of inflation onto customers, I think different customers, you know, the pricing power with customers is always to do with the size of that customer, and it would be, I would say, I think, more relevant on the installed base part of our revenues, both in merchant services and in Cards & Digital Payments. But we haven't been there yet. Obviously, we have had some supply chain-led kind of pricing impact on certain things, but not something which we have today worked proactively on passing on to customers. Sorry, Paolo.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

No, I want to emphasize something, Antonin , here. The biggest effect is actually coming by itself. We don't need to pass anything because.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Yeah.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

The majority of our revenues, especially in Merchant Services, as we said before, are actually expressed in terms of basis points of net merchant fees. Therefore, as the price of the good increases, we take the same percentage and therefore a higher absolute number. That's the reason why we are not, and honestly, at this stage, we don't plan to increase prices on ourselves. Yeah, I think taking into account that the rest of the business is very much into contracted relationships as well. Obviously, we continue to consider and observe, but we are in a business where the mechanics is already by itself healthy.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

Yeah. In terms of the question on e-commerce, we have, if we break it down within the group, I mean, we have countries like Italy where e-commerce, which is, you know, not huge but growing, really, you know, We saw the volumes, right? 26%, I think it was, in the quarter, highlighted in the slide Paolo talked to. 24%, sorry, percent in terms of volumes. In terms of revenues, we have growth which is in the twenties or thereabouts in Poland, Finland, north of 30% in Italy. Slower in DACH due to the de-risking I was mentioning earlier. In general, I'd say the e-commerce is, on a like-for-like basis as usual, growing handsomely. In terms of the volumes, you have the data.

I would just, and I think we thought it was interesting to highlight how, you know, strangely enough, you know, with the reopening or normally, given that shops were shut and now they're open again, the growth in the physical channel outstripped or was in line with the growth in e-commerce in the quarter, which is, I would say, a new trend that we thought worth highlighting.

Antonin Baudry
Sell-side Equity Analyst, HSBC

Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone
CFO and Deputy General Manager, Nexi

You're welcome.

Operator

Mr. Bertoluzzo, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Paolo Bertoluzzo
Group CEO, Nexi

Thank you. Listen, thank you for attending this call. Looking forward to the next one. Again, we will meet and chat with many of you one-to-one, in the coming days and weeks. I think, we'll also see you around in the several conferences, before our H1 results call that will happen, at the very end of July. Again, we are basically progressing the plan. The year according to our plan. If anything, Q1 was slightly ahead of our plan. Expect, compared to last year, a strong Q2 , and we remain quite optimistic about the outlook for the rest of the year. Have a good afternoon, and see you soon. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephone.

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