OVS S.p.A. (BIT:OVS)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Jun 15, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the OVS first quarter 2022 financial results presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing Star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stefano Beraldo, CEO of OVS. Please go ahead, sir.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

Thank you, and good afternoon to each of you, to announce the first quarter result of OVS. I think that it has been a good quarter, with the market share stable. What is interesting is that we are still gaining some market share in men and women. The only reason why market share is stable is that basically kids market evolution has been more modest compared to the men and women category in the market itself. Because of the mix, we are not increasing market share as a whole, but worth noticing that especially in women we are increasing market share again.

We are happy with the top line as well, because even if negative compared to 2019, modestly negative compared to 2019, in the first quarter, we had plenty of small or big negative aspect that impacted the consumer spending, like the war, like the return of Omicron, the increase of electricity and gasoline cost. Last but not least, we had again some delay in the beginning of the season in the new intake. Some bottleneck in the supply chain, in the worldwide supply chain determined also some delay, which has been entirely recovered as of today.

It was also the first quarter, as I had the opportunity to write in my comment, like a first test about the reaction of the consumers to the inflation, to the price increase. This first test, in our opinion, has been very favorable. The volume increase has been modest as expected. In the period from March to today, we are experiencing sales growth at like-for-like compared to 2019. The first quarter has been impacted by a weak February, but February has nothing to do with spring summer. February is the last month of sales period, having very little amount of goods to be sold because the stock decrease has been material compared to the year before.

We were not aggressive in pushing stock out, given that we had very little stock to push out. On the margin, at the gross margin level, very well. This is because the combination of higher prices and lower markdown generated a gross profit improvement. Basically, we are continuing to benefit from being a very good alternative compared to other brand or other chain to those customers which are forced to trade down because of the general economic issues. We have evidence that we are gaining new customers, thanks to this, coming from higher spending levels. When we look at today, things are even better because also weather stabilized.

After a normal but negative weather in April, we had a very good start of the hot season with a very good May. The sales, as we announced in May, has been absolutely satisfactory and very positive. One last aspect. We opened in Naples, probably the most beautiful OVS store across Italy. The reaction of the consumers has been a relocation from a second-tier location to a great location. The reaction of the customers is impressive with many new customers visiting the store with figures which are surprising also according to our best expectations. This means that the strategy of moving stores, adjusting the network, refurbishing store is still very rewarding.

I hand the word to Francesco Leoncini for a more precise comment on the slide. Thanks.

Francesco Leoncini
CFO, OVS

Thank you, Stefano, and good afternoon to everybody. We start with page number three, where we have the summary of the profit and loss for the first quarter. We can easily see that all parameters are in strong improvement versus last year. Sales start growing 30%. EBITDA is growing by almost 4x , and also the profit before tax turned to positive again. A concept of very good results for the first quarter. Moving to page number four, we can now see that these positive results are across all channels and all brands.

With in particular the EBITDA of OVS of the OVS brand growing 4x thanks to the higher operating leverage that the main brand of the group has. I will maybe spend more time on page number five which is a comparison of the 2019 results with the last 12 months. Finally, we had 12 months in a row without major lockdowns, major closures imposed by the government to contain the pandemic, and so we can compare the period of a full year.

In this case, we can see that overall there is a EUR 5 million improvement that would become a EUR 10 million improvement in consideration of the marketing investment that was increased by EUR 5 million over the period. These EUR 10 million improvement by the operations is driven by the positive effect, the overall positive effect of the actions on margin, on prices and margin, vis-à-vis the reduction of quantities that we are experiencing. The total algebraic sum of these two elements is positive by EUR 10 million. Outside the like-for-like perimeter, we have the development and the growth in the franchising channel that is able to fully offset the pressure on costs in terms of store costs and increased perimeter.

We are in a situation where overall we have a EUR 5 million bottom line EBITDA improvement versus the pre-pandemic level. Moving to page six and to the financials. The working capital is significantly improving versus one year ago. Trade receivables on one side are growing, so absorbing cash by EUR 9 million, but this increase of 9% has to be put in relation with the coming back of the business, +26% on franchising versus last year, the first quarter of last year. We are, as we commented also, in the year-end results 2020, in a scenario of reduction of day sales outstanding.

Inventory is slightly higher, but the quality of this inventory is completely different. In particular, the EUR 440 million of April 2022 includes some anticipation of shipments that we are making in view of the back to school and the arrivals that we should have in at the beginning of the full winter season in order to secure the goods in a scenario that is still uncertain in terms of transit time from the supplier to our warehouse. In parallel, we had a normalization of trade payables. In 2021, we were at the minimum in terms of purchases because we were in the middle of the clearance of the October of 2020.

After denormalization, we are back to the EUR 360 million level that should be a normal one for the company. Page seven provides a view of the investments with some nice picture of the store of Napoli Via Scarlatti that Stefano described in the introduction. The total amount is EUR 15 million, EUR 5 million below last year when we also had the purchases of the brands Stefanel and Piombo. Moving to page eight, we have a summary of the cash flow of the first quarter. Due to seasonality, the first quarter is always a negative period.

Even in this case, we have an improvement in the cash profile versus 2021, with a cash absorption of EUR 62 million versus EUR 65 million. Also to be noticed that part of this better cash flow was then invested in the buyback, and in case we can even comment later on this element. Moving to page number nine, we have a deep dive on the financial position, which is more than EUR 200 million better than one year ago. A portion was due to the capital increase, of course, but EUR 120 million relates just to the cash flow generated in these 12 months.

Also the leverage ratio are improving significantly, dramatically, I would say, versus last year, with both views either on the net debt as of 30th of April or on the average of the last 12 months being in the range 1.6-1.7. By the way, this value net debt is still gross of the treasury shares that we purchased that amounts to about EUR 7 million, and that would further improve the financial view in consideration. I give back the word to Stefano to provide a further comment on the outlook. Remembering on page number 10, nonetheless, that the acid test of having the price increase provided good results.

After the month of May, we are even more comfortable in stating that the price to quality ratio of OVS is still outstanding, and so the customer is recognizing to us. We have the comfort of the actuals of the month of May and the first 15 days of June, that sales are back to not just pre-pandemic level, but even above that level. We can conclude that we are looking to the remaining part of the year with confidence.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

Thank you, Francesco. I think that Francesco has also covered, as I asked him to do the outlook for the year. We are ready for your question. Thank you.

Operator

Excuse me. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Francesco Brilli of Intermonte. Please go ahead.

Francesco Brilli
Equity Research Analyst, Intermonte

Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I've a few questions. The first one is on the working capital, and specifically, we saw a robust increase of trade payables and almost the same level of inventories of last year. Just wanting to ask if the amount of inventory we see at the end of April already includes all the merchandise relative to these payables, or not? And if not, if you can give us a rough indication how much inventories would increase. And if I may, can you confirm the target for working capital for the year? There is something in the range of 10% on sales. I have one on Stefanel, Gap and other businesses.

I saw profitability of these businesses in first quarter improved significantly, quarter-on-quarter. When are you expecting the breakeven in terms of adjusted EBITDA? The last one, if I may, on prices, can you remind us when the process of price increases actually started?

Francesco Leoncini
CFO, OVS

Okay, thank you. I would start with the first answer on trade working capital. In fact, the picture as of 30th of April includes all the shipments that did already start because the cutoff for us is when the goods are put on the ship. These goods are, of course, still to be paid. We can see the value in parallel in the payables. The picture as of 30th of April, due to seasonality, is at a sort of a peak in terms of working capital in terms of inventory that would then decrease in the second half of the year.

It is normal that we have, as of April, a higher inventory compared to end of January. We expect some reduction at the end of the year on the working capital due to seasonality. On Stefanel, I give the word to Stefano.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

On Stefanel and Gap, your second question, I would say that we are now in somewhat more than half of the season. In Stefanel, the results in terms of sales are a bit below our expectation. That's because we are noticing a more disciplined commercial policy, which is more disciplined with much less markdown compared to the former use that Stefanel was giving to its customers that got too used to discounts in season. We are noticing that part of the customers are still waiting for discounts to buy, and this is why we are a bit low compared to our expectation. Nevertheless, the indication about the quality of the assortment and the brand remains quite positive.

Our customer reports that they are happy with the brand and the store and the merchandising. We are working on the cost, and we believe that in any case, the full year result will improve compared to last year, and the breakeven will be achieved next year in Stefanel. While in Gap, we are quite happy. All the stores which are located in the outlet park are generating good results. There is still the Milan store, which is weak, and we know that it will be weak until the end of the year when we close the store as per our agreement, but we have a full compensation provided by Gap to sustain and to cover all the costs that we are incurring in managing this store.

Basically, our forecast for the full year is a breakeven for Gap and hopefully even something positive. Regarding prices, the question on prices, the change of prices has been impacting the March, April, and May figures. Basically, the real period when we can evaluate the impact of new prices and the effect on volume and margin is the period starting from March. What I can tell you is that the year-to-date sales starting from March, excluding February, which is still, as I said, characterized by a very high level of markdown because being the end of the sales period, are largely positive. I would say surprisingly positive.

All in all, if I have to evaluate, and this is what I'm doing obviously, the impact of the price increase in the consumer habits with reference to our brand, I would say that as of now, the result has been more positive than expected with higher sales compared to the lower volumes. The balance is a very good positive number.

Operator

Thanks. Thank you. The next question is from Domenico Ghilotti of Equita. Please go ahead.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Good afternoon. I would like to have some call or some elaboration on specifically on the consumer habits, as you were saying in the most recent months or in the spring, summer period. I wonder, can you share the traffic data. How can you say that really you are getting new customers, and you were saying that you are able to get some clients trading down. Some comments on this. In particular, if you can give us a sense of what is the contribution of prices in the, let's say, for first quarter or as you want, so March to May, just to have a sense of how much has already been passed to customers.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

Thank you for the question. The first answer relating the consumer habits comes first of all from the CRM data. Now, we have almost EUR 5 million of client which are used to give us the permission to monitor their behavior being a frequent customer which are using the OVS application when they buy. We are realizing that we have new customer, new enrolled customer, and those customer are buying higher ticket, and those customer are buying more Piombo than other brand, and those customer are buying more woman and man than kids compared to the other baseline of our customers. Basically, we have pretty objective data which are confirming us that we are attracting new customers.

In terms of traffic, the general trend of lower traffic and higher conversion rate is still in place. It has been more severe, this traffic reduction, during the months of February and March, when population, Italian population was still a bit scared, and in many cases, more than scared, was forced to stay at home because of the return of the pandemic. There has been a second reason why customers reduced more than expected their desire to walk in the street, which has been the war. We know pretty well that when we have big political events, the population goes home and look at the TV more than thinking to buy consumer goods.

When the combined effect of lower concern of COVID and get a bit used, unfortunately, to this bad news on the war, in conjunction with much better weather, traffic also increased. During the month of May, traffic has been positive. During the month of February, March, and April, traffic was negative. In all four months in a row, also including the 15 days of June, there is still this evidence: lower traffic, much higher conversion rate, and positive net result, final net sales. I hope.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Yes, there was no other question.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

There was no other question from your side, I think.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Federico Bolzoni of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Federico Bolzoni
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my question. My question is related to the customer habits and behaviors. As you said, there are some new clients coming from higher segments. My concern is, are also some usual clients from OVS moving to Upim? The second one is, regarding the difference in the EBITDA between OVS and Upim and the underlying reasons. Thank you.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

No. We have not evidence that OVS is losing customer in favor of Upim. As a matter of fact, we have good evidence that the two brand can survive one each other without cannibalizing too much. We have in some case new openings Upim and OVS together in some shopping mall like in Roma, and they are achieving results above budget both in the two situations. We have also a different strategy regarding franchising because Upim is more dedicated to franchising and more local, more smaller and local in term of store size and locations, while OVS is more city and shopping mall.

At the end of the story, we don't have evidence of this concern that you are raising. The second question was relating to the different EBITDA. At the end of the story, the EBITDA is similar. On a full year, OVS has 1%-2% higher EBITDA compared to Upim on a full year, normal year. Once we look to the quarters, the quarters are not that significant to evaluate the profitability of the two brands because of the different mix. A much higher weight of home decoration and perfumery in Upim compared to OVS makes the quarterly comparison not easy. Also the different weight of franchising, which is much higher in Upim, gives different comparables.

In any case, when you look at the two brands on a full year perspective, you can assume that OVS can have 1.5-2% EBITDA higher at the bottom line EBITDA level compared to Upim.

Federico Bolzoni
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Thank you.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is a follow-up from Domenico Ghilotti of Equita. Please go ahead.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Yes, I have a question on the capital allocation. Can you give us the priorities in your capital allocation for 2022? What are the priorities in terms of investments, opportunities, also looking, say, external opportunities, if any?

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

As you know, we are continuously looking at opportunity to continue consolidating the market. We know that the market is still fragmented, and with our brands, we can take advantage of it, and we can also take advantage from onboarding new brand or new contents in our platform. The initial evidence is that we have with Gap tells us that we can become a retailer for other brand as well. We have the evidence that with Piombo, which is a brand, that we decided to buy inside OVS or with other brand like Hybrid or B.Angel, we are attracting the new customers.

We want to continue to allocate our investments in leveraging this brand and making them more reputed and known by the customers. We are continuing to plan higher marketing investment, as you have seen, in the last 12 months, compared to the nineteen, for instance. We have some potential acquisition on our table. We are looking very carefully. Basically, we are also investing in buying back our shares because we believe we are convinced, our board is convinced that based on our actual results and full year perspectives, there is no reason to keep the shares in the market when we can buy the share at a very affordable price. These are the major direction.

We continue to believe that in this multichannel economy, having attractive stores is important in order to give the customer one more reason to privilege our brand compared to other competitors. We will continue also to refurbish stores on the back of the very good results that we are experiencing in the last 12 months.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Okay. The second question is on the comment you gave on Piombo and the contribution in general, the market share in women and men. Can you give a sense on how much is really, say, affecting the performance and how did you perform in these two things, two categories?

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

Basically, as of now, about 20% of our women sales are generated by brands which, three years ago we didn't have. Not only Piombo, but Hybrid or Mina Candosa or Nobody's Child, Apricot, October, B.Angel. 60%-70% of those sales are represented by brand that we own, and another 30%-40% of those sales are represented by brand that we manage under a concession agreement. In women, the presence of new brand is the reason for the increase of market share. Interesting to notice, as I mentioned, that the sell-through, which we are experiencing, in this part of the year is higher, with reference to the higher prices items compared to the lowest one.

It seems that this is another good indication, in my opinion, that we are attracting new customers and they like to find OVS an interesting alternative to other brands which are more expensive, and this is gonna continue, in my opinion, also in the second half.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Okay. My last question is on, say, consumer spending. Let's say that the geopolitical situation remains stable. Do you think that the worst in terms of sentiment is already, say, in place or in the mind of consumer? Or do you think that the inflationary pressure is still to be perceived fully by clients and consumers?

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

I have an opinion, and I don't pretend that this opinion is correct, because when I speak with analysts, bankers, et cetera, everyone has a different opinion regarding the risk that in the second half there will be a situation that will be tougher in terms of consumer spending, et cetera. Personally, I hope and I believe that most of the price increases has been already experienced by the customers. As I said in the beginning, the worst period of the gasoline increase is over. The worst period of electricity bill increase is over. The war is over, and every element is now embedded in the new behaviors. Only one aspect has still not changed, which is the salary, so the power of the salary.

In the next coming months, there will be an automatic adjustment also in the purchasing power, because all the employees will start not only to suffer as they did as of now, but also to recover because the salaries will increase, because there are mechanisms which are inflation linked. Basically, from a pure economic point of view, a country which is not relying on a consumer which is borrowing money to buy a house, because the Italians are putting their money in savings, should not have generated too many constraints or concerns in terms of cost of money increase. Interest increase, like it would happen maybe in the United States, where every family is heavily in debt.

If I have to look from this perspective, I think that, hopefully, obviously, and I cross my fingers, and you have more indication than I do, the worst is over. I expect that situation will continue remaining challenging for families. But the most important aspect to me is that, at the end of the story, I sell commodities. I'm not selling dreams, I'm selling commodities, things that people need. In my opinion, we are selling the best quality price to quality ratio commodities, very well done, in a good store experience, with a good website, at a very affordable price, with a higher approach to sustainability and circular economy. We are attracting new customers, thanks to the improvement Piombo brand and not only.

I think that, even in a negative scenario, we should be preferred, compared to many other companies, and that's why, in my opinion, we are overperforming the market, in terms of market share, and also, I believe in terms of, economic performance.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Okay, thanks. If I may, the very last question on an update on the supply chain issue and cost inflation, because I saw freight rates coming down more recently. I'm wondering if you are starting to see some, say, lower bottlenecks in the supply chain. You were mentioning it still in spring, summer. You had some issues still until April. Can you give us a comment on how do you see the situation?

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

No, apparently, the situation is improving, as you said. We experienced still delays up to now, basically. We started our month of January, February deliveries with about EUR 50 million delays. These EUR 50 million delays has been entirely recovered at the end of May. We don't expect in the second half to incur in the same delays also because we decided to anticipate by one month order.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Mm-hmm.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

This is why maybe we have some temporary increase in working capital for maybe one month if everything will be on time. We are noticing some relief in freight and logistics costs, but nothing really super material. Also because we are already benefiting from a much lower cost, thanks to medium-term agreement that we finalized one year ago. We have a combination of spot and forward, and that's why we are paying our container much less than the average of the market. There is an important aspect. The lockdown in China has still penalized the worldwide trade. Apparently, now Shanghai is finally open. If there will be no further lockdown, this will generate an overall improvement in all the global supply chains.

Domenico Ghilotti
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Okay, thanks.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

Thank you.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Beraldo, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Stefano Beraldo
CEO, OVS

Okay. Thank you. Thanks to everyone, and have a nice rest of the day. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.

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