Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Pirelli's conference call, in which Pirelli top management will present company's first half 2026 results. A live webcast of the event and the presentation slides are available in the investor relations section of the Pirelli website. I remind you that the Q&A session will follow the presentation. Now, I would like to introduce Mr. Marco Tronchetti Provera. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. The first half results confirm Pirelli's ability to generate value in an uncertain environment marked by growing geopolitical tensions. We have further consolidated our leadership in the high value segment by leveraging on the strength of our brand, technological innovation, and a distinctive product portfolio.
The resilience of our business model and implementation of strategic priorities allowed us to maintain a profitability among the best in the industry, offsetting the negative effects of tension in the Middle East, U.S. tariffs, and exchange rate volatility. Cash flow generation remains in line with the seasonality of the business and with the expectations for the full year, reflecting the group's financial discipline. In the second half of the year, the macroeconomic and geopolitical picture is expected to remain volatile.
The resumed conflicts in the Middle East has put further pressure on energy costs, with Brent price back at above $90 per bbl and the TTF gas approaching EUR 60 MW/h . Furthermore, there are persistent signs of weak demand, especially in car manufacturing and the standard segment. While demand in the high value replacement is proving resilient with a mid-single digit growth rate. Despite the challenging external environment that I described, based on the quality of our first half results, we are confirming our full year targets for revenue growth, profitability, and cash generation. Now I give the floor to Mr. Casaluci.
Thank you, Mr. Tronchetti, and good evening. Pirelli has reported solid results for the first half of the year in line with our expectations. Revenues reached approximately EUR 3.5 billion, with organic growth of 2.5%, driven by stronger high value, accounting now for 82% of group sales, and price mix improvement. Adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 558 million, with a margin of 16%, which remained stable compared with last year, thanks to the effectiveness of internal levers that offset the impact of the external scenario. Net profit rose by 13% year-on-year, benefiting from lower financial expenses linked to debt reduction and a greater profit contribution from equity participations in the first quarter of the year.
The net financial position is of approximately EUR 1.9 billion and includes the debt consolidation of the Chinese joint venture, Xushen Tyre, amounting to approximately EUR 210 million, as well as the payment of approximately, EUR 47 million relating to the exercise of the call option, which increased Pirelli's stake to 70%.
In the second quarter, the net cash flow before dividends and M&A transactions was positive at EUR 148 million, in line with the level recorded in the same period last year. Our long-term strategy for value creation and development continues to benefit from progress in sustainability. Over the past six months, we achieved tangible results in all areas. In health and safety, the prevention and awareness-raising programs contributed to a significant reduction of the accident at work frequency index, reducing the index by 54% compared with the first half of 2025.
The decarbonization plan continues in line with the 2040 net zero target. Energy efficiency and machinery electrification projects led to a 13.5% decrease of our emissions compared to last year, and the reduction of emissions by our suppliers is also in line with our 2027 target. We made significant progress in developing circular supply chains for the recovery and integration of sustainable materials into production processes, as we will see in the next slide.
Energy and water efficiency programs allowed for a 6.7% year-on-year reduction of water consumption for production purposes. We started three partnerships on key raw materials, namely carbon black, steel, and synthetic rubber. Our target is accelerating the transition to materials circularity from increasingly sustainable and traceable supply chains. More specifically, in the U.S., we started a collaboration with Bolder Industries, a company specialized in retrieving carbon black from end-of-life tires.
This raw material is recycled and used for new tires. This project received the Value Chain Collaboration Award from the Tire Recycling Foundation. In China, together with our strategic partner, Xinda, we gave a remarkable contribution to the development of a pilot project to include recycled steel among the materials certified under ISCC PLUS, the major international standard for the certification of recycled and bio-based materials traceability across the supply chain.
In Europe, we developed an integrated chain with Pyrum, BASF, and Synthos to turn end-of-life products into circular ISCC PLUS certified materials, including synthetic rubber, to be reused in large scale production processes by guaranteeing high quality performance and traceability standards. Through these partnerships, we will strengthen our strategy on circular materials with a target of bringing products made from over 80% bio-based and recycled materials to the market by 2030.
Let's now analyze our first half operating performance. In line with our strategic priorities, we gained share in the high value segment in the major geographic areas and business lines by leveraging on technological innovation and seizing market opportunities. Innovation represents a distinct factor in our strategy. In the first six months of the year, we expanded our homologation portfolio and widened the product range.
We also consolidated our position in the segments of higher value. In the Cyber Tyre, the latest test confirmed the competitive edge of our technology. We proved that connectivity applied to tires through a physical sensor can be translated into tangible benefits for both safety and driving experience. The efficiency plan proceeds according to schedule. In the first six months, the efficiency plan generated gross benefits of EUR 81 million. That is approximately 54% of the full year target.
Let's start from the commercial performance in the first six months. We gained market share in the high value segment, recording a volume growth of 3.5% and strengthened our position in the car and motor segments. We also continued our selectivity process in the standard segment, -8% on volumes, by reducing our exposure to segments with lower profitability, mainly in South America. In the second quarter, the volume trend, -1.5% at group level, reflects a greater reduction in the exposure to the standard segment.
Volumes -11% versus a -4% in Q1, outcome of a strategy based on value and protection of profitability in an extremely competitive environment. The high value trend, +3%, reflects a lower growth of the motor segment after a strong performance in the first quarter and a more limited growth in the car original equipment due to demand slowdown.
In the second half of the year, we expect high value performance to strengthen, supported by a solid replacement demand in Europe, as well as the gradual improvement of the North American market. In the standard segment, we expect a gradual trend normalization. Let's now move to product innovation, which is one of the key drivers of differentiation in future growth. In the first half of 2026, we obtained approximately 200 new homologations, mainly concentrated in higher range size specialties and electric vehicles.
These results confirm our role reference technology partner for both premium and prestige car makers. Examples of these include the partnerships on the most advanced electric cars like Ferrari Luce and Rivian R2S, as well as premium SUVs like Audi Q7 and Q9. Innovation also means constant renewal of the product portfolio.
In the car segment in North America, we launched the new Scorpion All Season 4, developed with an increasingly virtual approach, which led to an improvement in mileage, comfort, and driving control. The value of our technological solutions is also confirmed by comparative tests. In the first half, we obtained eight victories from leading European specialist magazines, which awarded several products in the Cinturato, P Zero, and Scorpion lines.
In the two wheels business, we continue to incorporate the racing experience into our products. In the motor segment, we launched Metzeler Sportec Zero 1 RS, developed from the racing knowhow to offer top performance on the road. In the cycling segment, we introduced two new Cinturato lines designed for gravel riding, a rapidly growing segment. Within product innovation, Cyber Tyre is one of the most distinctive solutions in the industry.
Through sensors integrated into the tire and our own algorithms, Cyber solutions can turn a tire from a passive car component into a smart sensor that can exchange data with the vehicle in real time and provide accurate information about the tire and road condition. All these data allow the electronic systems of vehicle, from ABS to stability control and traction, to be able to react more effectively and accurately, thus improving safety, control and driving experience. Recent tests carried out on our Vizzola testing track, also attended by international trade press, positively proved the value of this technology under particularly challenging conditions.
Tests showed the tangible advantages in terms of safety and control of the vehicle. In emergency braking test from 100 km/h , the system allowed for a reduction of braking space of approximately 5 m .
On wet surface, vehicle stability and grip improved, and in the event of aquaplaning, a better control of the vehicle was achieved in circumstances where, without Cyber Tyre support, the behavior of the car would have been much more critical.
These results prove that immediate and real data availability from the tire allows the vehicle to fully exploit the potential of safety equipment on board, with actual benefits for the driver. Interest by car manufacturers and media confirms the role of Cyber Tyre as an enabling technology for connected mobility, as well as further development of ADAS systems and autonomous driving. Cyber Tyre is a unique solution in the industry, strengthening Pirelli's leadership in integrating tire, vehicle, and digital platforms. It provides new opportunities for growth and value creation along the entire mobility ecosystem. Beside innovation, brand is one of our Pirelli's distinctive assets.
Recent market analysis confirmed the strength and uniqueness of our positioning with Pirelli brand associated to high tech, prestige, and motorsport concepts. During the first half of the year, we further strengthened this positioning with targeted actions in strategic markets. In the United States, we started a multi-year partnership with Miami Open, one of the most prestigious international tennis events, giving even more visibility to the brand in a country which is crucial for our future growth.
In Europe, we consolidated the presence at iconic events such as the Goodwood Festival of Speed and the 24 Hours of Spa, occasions that highlight Pirelli's association with innovation, performance, and technological excellence. Finally, the partnership agreement with Formula 1 was renewed until 2028, confirming Pirelli's role at the pinnacle of motorsport.
These activities contribute to enhance our brand's global relevance and strengthen Pirelli's high-end positioning, supporting our ability to continue growing in the high value and most profitable segments. I would like to conclude these sections by mentioning transformative efficiency, a fundamental pillar in terms of competitiveness roadmap. This transformation involves the whole value chain, from product design to manufacturing.
We are making full use of simulation, virtualization, and modularity, which means standardization of materials and semi-finished products. The aim is to reduce complexity in the factories while maintaining best of the industry quality and performance and accelerating time to market. An example of this is the Virtual Compounder, our own platform based on artificial intelligence, which allows to virtually develop and optimize compounds, identifying the most promising solutions before physical validation. Results are already tangible.
We reduced prototypes by 20%, development time was cut by 30%, and in parallel, we are speeding up the introduction of bio-based and recycled materials into our products. Furthermore, we continue investing in digitization, automation, and electrification to increase productivity, quality, and manufacturing flexibility. I now give the floor to Mr. Bocchio. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Casaluci. Let's see now in more detail the dynamics that have characterized the performance of first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year. As already pointed out, revenues were approximately EUR 3.5 billion, with a 2.5% organic growth. Volume trend in the semester was stable, reflecting a share gain in high-value original equipment and replacement in both quarters. The reduction of exposure to standard continues, more specifically in the second quarter, to protect profitability in a highly competitive environment. Price mix was positive, plus 2.5% in the first half and plus 2.9% in the second quarter, guided by the continuous improvement of the product mix and regional mix. The price increases announced in the second quarter will be visible in the second part of this year.
The Forex impact is negative, - 2.1%, mainly due to the U.S. dollar depreciation versus the first six months of 2025. The exchange rate trend was positive in the second quarter, + 0.4%, due to the U.S. dollar trend improvement and the strengthening of some currencies such as the Chinese renminbi and Brazilian reais. Finally, the perimeter change, -0.5%, is linked to the deconsolidation of the Däckia business in the second quarter of 2025. We closed the first semester with an adjusted EBIT of EUR 558 million and a 16% margin in line with last year, thanks to the effectiveness of the internal levers, which compensated the negative impact of external factors such as exchange rate volatility, the Middle East crisis, as well as U.S. duties.
More specifically, the positive price mix contribution, equal to EUR 50 million, and of the efficiencies for EUR 81 million, have more than compensated the negative impact from the exchange rates, EUR -44 million, and the inflation of input costs, EUR -65 million, which increased in the second quarter following the Middle East crisis. Raw materials provided a positive contribution for EUR 32 million. Finally, negative impact of depreciation and amortization equal to EUR -12 million, and increase in other costs for EUR 43 million, mainly connected with the impact of the U.S. tariffs, as well as the rigorous management of finished product inventories due to the highly volatile environment. Profitability remained stable at 16%, also in the second quarter.
The contribution from price mix for EUR 29 million and efficiencies for EUR 38 million, more than offset inflationary pressures, including higher energy and logistic costs stemming from the Gulf crisis, the impact of U.S. tariffs recorded under other costs, and the negative foreign exchange effect, mainly related to the appreciation of the Mexican peso. Raw material impact was positive. We expect this tailwind to reverse in the second half of the year, reflecting the increase in oil prices that started at the end of February. Let's now analyze the trend in net income equal to EUR 299 million, up 13% compared to the EUR 264 million recorded in the first half of 2025.
This trend reflects the reduction of amortization included in the purchase price allocation worth EUR 11 million, lower net financial expenses of EUR 29 million, mainly related to the reduced gross debt, as well as to a lighter financial debt in countries with higher interest rates. Greater contribution from the results of equity participation for EUR 13 million, mainly connected to the revaluation at fair value of the 49% stake in the JV Xushen Tyre, which occurred in the first quarter. Higher tax charges of EUR 19 million, with tax rate at 30%, an increase as expected from the 29.2% in the first half of last year, but benefiting from positive impacts from non-taxable income and one-offs. Let's now move to the net financial position. At the end of June, our net financial position is negative for approximately EUR 1.92 billion.
This reflects, on the one end, a net cash flow before dividends and extraordinary operations of EUR -557 million, substantially in line with the first half of 2025, which had recorded EUR -547 million, net of the positive impact from the divestment of Däckia. On the other hand, includes the negative impact of EUR 257 million related to the consolidation of the debt and the increased stake to 70% into Xushen Tyre.
The operating net cash flow in the first half of 2026 is EUR -416 million. It was EUR 217 million in the same period last year, and mainly this accounts increased investments and greater cash absorption due to trade payables dynamics. More specifically, CapEx reached EUR 177 million compared to the EUR 128 million in the first six months of 2025, and were mainly dedicated to high-value development, technology upgrades, and industrial automation.
Working capital trend, EUR -1 billion compared to EUR 810 million of the first six months of 2025, reflects the reduction of trade payables related to the payment of the investment concentrated between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Receivables follow the usual business seasonality with a limited negative impact due to the Middle East situation. Inventories on sales over the last 12 months stood at 22.4% compared with the 21.2% for the same period in 2025. A figure that reflects the rigorous control of finished products volume, as the increase is mainly attributable to the rise in the cost of raw materials and the buildup of raw material safety stock to support business continuity in a context characterized by tensions in the Gulf region.
Net cash flow before dividends in the second quarter of 2026 is positive for EUR 148 million.
In line with the result of the second quarter 2025, which was EUR 150 million, excluding the already mentioned positive impact from the divestment of Däckia. As of June 30th, Pirelli had a gross debt of approximately EUR 3.1 billion, financial assets worth EUR 1.2 billion, and therefore, its net financial position is of approximately EUR 1.9 billion. The cost of debt over the last 12 months was 3.89%, down by more than 50 basis points compared to 4.40% at the end of 2025.
This decrease is attributable to the reduction of the level of debt, as well as optimization of the mix due to the lower financial debts in countries with higher interest rates. The liquidity margin is approximately EUR 2.6 billion and allows for the hedging of maturities for over three years until the third quarter of 2029.
In January 2026, the group signed a contract for a new multicurrency banking line worth EUR 2.1 billion with a group of leading domestic and international banks. This new line, linked to decarbonization targets of the group for scope one, two, and three, consists of a term loan worth EUR 600 million and revolving lines for a total amount of EUR 1.5 billion. The contract allows for the possibility to agree between the company and all the financial institutions to extend the expiration date with the same terms for a maximum period of another two years, that is, until 2033. This transaction has also allowed for refinancing of the whole amount of the debt due in 2027. I now give the floor back to Mr. Casaluci.
Thank you, Fabio. Let's now talk about the update on this year's outlook. This macroeconomic environment continues to be characterized by high uncertainty, with the Middle East tensions remaining the major risk factor when it comes to growth, inflation, and raw material costs. Recent hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have indeed caused a new increase in energy prices and commodities and caused an interruption in the normalization process observed in the weeks following the Strait of Hormuz agreement in June 2026.
Based on the last estimates, the worsening of the scenario is confirmed compared to our assumption in the first quarter of this year. In 2026, global GDP growth is now expected to be 2.3%. The slowdown is more marked in Europe, given its strong energy dependency, while the United States continue to show a good resilience, supported by the investment connected with AI.
China is confirmed at +4.5% expansion, although its domestic demand is still weak. Inflation is expected to increase at 3.8% versus the previous at 3.7%, and continues to be an element of scrutiny for the major central banks. Regarding the commodities, the scenario remains very volatile, and the reduction of prices is expected in the third quarter, as well as a normalization of the flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Based on this new environment, we updated our market outlook for 2026. The car tire demand is now expected to be between -3 and -1 versus minus two and flat indicated in May. The estimates review involved the two most cyclical segments.
The standard, now expected to be negative mid-single digit versus a negative low single digit in May, and the original equipment demand, -3% compared to -2% in May, in line with the car production trend.
Regarding the high-value segment, expectations are now for a low to mid-single digit demand growth given the more cautious outlook in original equipment following the weak market performance in first half, -2.5%, especially in China, due to the end of government incentives that supported demand last year. In the replacement high-value segment, we expect a mid-single digit growth with an improving trend in the second half of the year, driven by Europe and Asia Pacific. Also, thanks to a better EV penetration and above all, improving demand in North America following a weak first quarter, sorry, first half.
In light of the quality of the results in the first half of the year, we confirm the 2026 guidance and update some of the drivers based on the current external scenario. Revenues are expected to be between EUR 6.75 billion and EUR 6.95 billion, with volumes between stable and +1%, slowing down compared to a +1% and +2% indicated in May, due to the original equipment and standard market demand slowdown.
Price mix improvement is confirmed between +2.5% and 3%. Exchange rates impact has been slightly revised based on expectations of a smaller U.S. dollar depreciation. Forex is now expected to range between -2.5% and -1.5% versus the previous -4% and -2%. Profitability is expected to be approximately 16%, with an adjusted EBIT in absolute value at EUR 1,080 million in the midpoint. Investments confirmed at EUR 450 million.
Net cash generation before dividends and impact of the exercise of the call option for the Xushen Tyre joint venture confirmed at EUR 500 million. Net financial position confirmed at EUR 1.2 billion, including the impact of the call option exercise. I now leave the floor to Mr. Tronchetti for the final remarks.
Thank you, Mr. Casaluci. The results of the first half of the year confirm the strength of Pirelli's business model and the effectiveness of the strategic decision taken in recent years. In an environment characterized by high volatility and growing geopolitical uncertainties, we continue to deliver strong results, maintaining a profitability that ranks among the best in the industry and confirming the group's ability to react rapidly to changes in the external scenario.
We continue to stand out thanks to a combination of unique assets, the strength of the brand, our technological leadership, and an increasingly efficient and sustainable industrial platform. Innovation remains a key element of our differentiation. Cyber Tyre is a clear example, a unique technology in the industry that reinforces Pirelli's role in the evolution of connected mobility. It confirms our ability to anticipate the main trends in the automotive industry.
The quality of these assets, combined with disciplined execution and the flexibility of our operating model, allows us to look forward to the second half of the year with confidence and to confirm our 2026 targets for revenue, profitability, and cash generation. We will continue investing on our areas of strength to further improve Pirelli's competitive positioning and create sustainable value over the long term. This concludes our presentation. We may now open the Q&A session.
We will now begin the question- and- answer session. As a reminder, to enter the queue for questions, please click on the Q&A icon on the left side of your screen and then press the Raise Your Hand button. When announced, please click Continue on the pop-up window. Please do not mute your microphone locally. If you are on the phone instead, please press star one on your keypad. The first question comes from Monica Bosio with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Actually, I have four questions. The first one is on the market share at the country level. At the country level, where did the group find the most relevant market share gains in the second quarter? If I remember well, in the first quarter, it was in the U.S. Is it still the case for the second quarter? The second question is on the replacement channel trend in China, which keeps positive also in the second half. Can you confirm that you expect to get market share in China in the replacement channel on the back of the EV tires replacement cycle? If you can share with us what is the loyalty rate of Chinese consumer to a Pirelli brand? The third question is on the price mix.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that the 2.9% price mix in the second quarter was mostly product and regions, so mostly mix. For the second half, we should also add the pricing effect. If you can confirm this and tell us what will be the drop through by year-end. Finally, on the Cyber tires, I was wondering if you can share with us some indication on the multi-year investment plan. What is the time horizon? I'm curious to know if you get further homologation in Cyber tires since the beginning of the year. Thank you very much.
Thank you for your questions. I will start from the gain of market share in the second quarter. We have been able to gain market share in all the high-value markets, but the better performance also in the second quarter is coming mainly from United States, where we have been able to gain market share both in the original equipment and in the replacement. This is the result of our growth strategy based on the introduction of new products fully dedicated for the U.S. market, the enlargement of the customer base, where we grow market share with all the most iconic vehicle for the United States in the last years, like the Ford F-150 or the Dodge Ram, or the Tesla's most popular models. Also the growing popularity of our brand and the enlargement of the customer base.
In the second quarter, we also gained quite significantly market share in China in the replacement channel, this is mainly driven by the pull-through effect starting in the electric vehicle, as you correctly said. We are taking advantage of the original equipment growth in the last years. Price mix, you are also right. In the second quarter, the performance, roughly 3%, has been mainly driven by a product mix, including the region mix, with still a slightly negative channel mix, where we had a growth of the original equipment faster than the replacement. What we do expect in the second half is a slight reduction of the mix effect, mainly due to a lower reduction in the standard volumes, where we do expect a normalization of the volume performance.
Also, thanks to a more profitable comparison versus last year in South America, while the price will start to be meaningful because the price increase that we announced during the months of May and June will be effective starting from the second half. You can expect another 3%, roughly, of price mix performance. In this case, half driven by price and half by product mix. That's roughly, it's improving the drop-through in the second half. We do expect 80%, more or less, of drop-through in the second half. Cyber, we keep on growing in penetration. What we do expect is, considering the high interest of the most important premium and prestige car makers in Europe and in China and also in U.S., we do expect to finalize agreements also in the premium segment.
You know that we are already delivering in the prestige segment, the Cyber Tyre technology. We do expect to scale up into the premium, we are confident some good news will come already in the last quarter of this year. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.
The next question comes from Martino De Ambroggi with Equita. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody. The first question is on networking capital. Considering the additional absorption you saw in the first half and considering the raw materials price increase, isn't it a risk for your free cash flow guidance? If I remember correctly, you are always using factoring in the region of EUR 200 million at year-end. This is my first question. The second is on the standard profitability, because volumes are heavily down. Just to have an idea, if it remains profitable this year, maybe this is too rude to say, but in price increases, is it easy to pass price increases also in this segment? Referring to price increase, any pre-buy that you saw in the second quarter? Thank you.
I will start from the first question related to the networking capital. Obviously, we confirm our guidance of the cash generation for the full year. We don't expect to have difficulties. Everything is on plan. As you saw in the first semester, stock management made us arrive at an incidence on net sales of about 22.4%, which is a little bit higher than March and last year. This was due not from the volume of the stock, but from the value of the finished products and the raw material, given the fact that obviously the commodity has grown up quite a lot since the end of February. We expect a little bit this effect to slow down during the last part of the year. We expect for December to have an incidence of inventories on net sales over the last 12 months at about 22%.
Consider even that in June, actually, we were building up a little bit of safety stock on raw materials in order to avoid any kind of disruption in our factories. On the receivables side, we achieved 14.5% in June, which was in line with March, and for the remaining part of the year by year-end, we expect this number to arrive at about 9% on sales. On the payables, again, we had a negative impact in June related to the fact that there was this accumulation of CapEx between Q4 2025 and the beginning of 2026. With a cash out during quarter three, but then we expect a normalization given that our CapEx at EUR 450 million will be respected. By the end of the year, we are expecting payables to be in the range of 30%, so not dissimilar to what we had in the previous years.
We use factoring to balance the cash flow of the company on one side and to balance the risk of our account receivable, and we are in line with the usual trend. In some quarters a little bit higher, in some quarters a little bit lower. In June, for example, it was lower than the average of the previous quarter, but no major differences compared to the past.
Thank you. Now I will move to the following questions. The standard profitability in 2026 is expected to be in between 7%-8%, so a high single digit. We still target the double digit, and we are confident we will arrive there. But nevertheless, it's a more volatile segment. It's not really a question of price increase, but the volatility of the demand, It's down at 18% of our total sales. It will be reduced even more.
Let's consider that in the high-value regions, Europe, U.S., and Asia-Pacific, the weight on sales is already in the ballpark of 10%-12%. In these regions, we are very close to the double-digit profitability. Last point, the pre-buying. No, we haven't seen pre-buying effects. The stock level in the trade is well-normalized so far. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Christoph Laskawi with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I'd like to start on the U.S. investment plan, please. I know it's not yet fully approved by the board, but the size that you have indicated in the press release of $1 billion-$1.2 billion, very back of the envelope, I can get to up to a 10% capacity addition from that. Could you comment on if there is a need then to cut elsewhere, say, in South America or Europe, the capacity? If there essentially is now a bit of a change in strategy, should it be approved from basically growing through mix improvements, now actually chasing volume a bit? Then the last one on that one would be, is it in the short-term limiting cash return potential if you should approve the U.S. investment plan and actually follow through with it?
Just a second block on volumes into H2. You mentioned that high value-added volumes should improve in the second half. At the same time, obviously, you've raised prices. Is there any indication that volume or demand has changed as a result of the price hikes, or is it pretty stable and resilient as you see it now? Thank you.
Thank you for your questions. First, there is no change in strategy. The investment in U.S. is just related to the growth we are having in the United States, as I've been told you a few minutes ago. We grew in the first quarter, we grew in the second quarter, we continue to grow. We are underrepresented in the United States compared to our market share in the other main regions. It's in line. What we are doing, it's in line with our strategy. Now I leave the floor to Mr. Casaluci.
Yes, thank you. Let's consider that as we commented in other occasions, if we do consider 100, what we sell in the United States today, more or less 5% is already produced locally. 55% is coming from Mexico and 40% is imported by Europe and South America. The capacity we will install in the U.S. will be, of course, 100% high value and will support, as Mr. Tronchetti said, the local growth, plus eventually a reduction of import from Europe and South America, and the free capacity in these regions will be used to support the local growth. We don't plan any kind of reduction on the high-value capacity of the group. While the measure changes on the demand on the second half, it's mainly linked to the different expectation of the market.
First, we have to remind that the change in the outlook of the market, it's mainly driven by the result of the first half, where we saw a worsening of the replacement demand in the United States and the regional equipment demand in China compared to our previous guidance. What we do expect in the second half is an improvement in these two area. Also driven by a better comparison year-over-year on the two regions. All in all, we keep on growing in the high value, overperforming the market, and we have a more positive outlook of the second half compared to the first half, mainly driven by lower reduction of the original equipment in China and a start growing environment in United States replacement.
While Europe is expected to maintain its high double-digit growth in the replacement high value, as has been shown in the first half.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Harry Martin with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one actually is a follow-up about the outlook for U.S. volume growth in the market in the second half. What gives the confidence that that will get better? It looks like the first half of the year has already been driven by the weak consumer. I appreciate the June data maybe was a little bit better. Is it an extrapolation of that, or do you have any other information for us that can help on why that market will get better? The second question I wanted to ask about the USMCA renegotiation. What are you hearing? We've seen some headlines that the U.S. is pushing for increased U.S. content within cars, but is there anything else that you've heard or we need to think about for that Mexico to U.S. business?
Finally, I wanted to ask about your capabilities in digital twin and software. How higher proportion of original equipment fitments today are requiring some level of digital integration with the R&D and design phase? How differentiating is Pirelli software in this field and helping to win those market share gains? Thank you.
Thank you for your questions. Mexico, USMCA. The fact is that the agreement should be renewed for 10 years, renegotiable every year. As far as we can see, considering the importance of the Mexican supply to the North American market, we do not expect impact on our operations in Mexico. We feel comfortable on that side. Now I leave the floor to Mr. Casaluci.
Yes, thank you. The U.S. volume, we are optimistic on the second half, mainly in the replacement. First of all, because we come from six months in a row of negative markets, which is something that is preparing a restart of the demand, in our view. Also because more favorable comparison versus last year, which is also helping. We target to over-perform the market. We have already a long-term agreement with our partners in distribution. The orders are already on our hands with a clear view, at least for the following three, four months. We are very positive on the outlook of U.S., both driven by an expectation of a better market and also our order collection. Digital twin, yes, you are fully right. This is one of the most important innovation that we have been able to introduce in our research and development processes.
The competitive advantage that we see are for two sets of reasons. First of all, we are becoming much faster in the development of new products, which is fitting the needs and requirements of the OEMs above all the Chinese one. That's one of the major reasons why we have a competitive advantage in this arena. It's also allowing us to reduce the number of prototypes, with a positive impact on cost. Is helping us to accelerate the introduction of recycled bio-based materials, because with the Virtual Compounder, the simulation on the development of new compounds, we can make tests on laboratory without losing a lot of time for the physical test. That's also a good competitive advantage. The second reasons is linked to our Cyber Tyre technology.
The digital twin of a tire's a mathematical model mirroring the real performance of a tire is part of the Cyber Tyre technology that is integrating data collection from sensors into the tires, into a way to use this data, apply that to the digital twin of a tire, thanks to the new computing capacity of the cars, to elaborate on the best possible instruction to give to the control unit of the car using the same logic that we use when we develop virtually a tire, but applied with a completely different conditions. Thank you.
The next question comes from Stephen Benhamou with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three questions. The first one is on raw mat. They are going to turn a negative in H2. Based on your latest assumption, can you please give us an indication of what do you anticipate in terms of headwind for H2? The second question is regarding the efficiency gains. If I'm not mistaken, when we are doing the math, you are anticipating around EUR 70 million of efficiency gains in H2. Given the global cost inflation, should we expect those efficiency gains to more than offset cost inflation, just like in H1? The last question is regarding the tax rate. Again, if I'm not mistaken, you were anticipating a slightly higher tax rate in 2026. In H1, you are at only 30%. Should we expect any tax rate increase in H2?
What are the reasons for that? Thank you.
Thank you. We take the question. I'll start from the raw materials.
In the first two quarters of the year, we benefited from the positive contribution from raw materials against previous year. Overall, we had an impact for about a little more than EUR 30 million. This trend for the second half will reverse completely because commodity, after the end of February, has gone up quite a lot. We will see the first impact of this increase in commodity, and that means an increase in our cost of goods sold starting from quarter three. That means starting from now. What we expect is a sizable impact for the second semester because if the first half was a positive contribution from raw materials for EUR 30 million, in the second semester, we expect a negative impact for about EUR 70 million. Total different trend between first half and the second half.
Regarding the efficiencies and the inflation, I can confirm that for the full year, we expect efficiency from our project that are absolutely in line with the expectation for a total amount of EUR 150 million. On top of this EUR 150 million, there will be an additional impact of the cost mitigation plan that will be between EUR 20 million-EUR 30 million related to the Middle East crisis in order to try to offset and balance the additional inflation that will come related to the energy cost and inflation on the transportation cost. Having said that, with this additional mitigation plan, we think that on the overall of the year, the efficiency plan and the mitigation plan will be sufficient to not only offset, but even give a little bit of positive impact to the result of the company.
Regarding the third point related to the tax rate, tax rate in the first semester was equal to 30%. I confirm the full year guidance for the tax rate between 32%-34%, which was as in our regional guidance, take into consideration some one-off positive impact for the full year that has been materialized a little bit earlier than expected, meaning in the first half. That is why we had this 30% in the first half, and it will be a little bit higher on the second semester, but fully in line with the expected tax rate that not only for 2026, but even for the following years, we expect to be in this ballpark at 32%-34%.
Thank you. Very clear.
The next question comes from Thomas Besson with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good evening. I'll try to make it quicker. I have three questions, please. Firstly, your net interest charge, to follow up with Mr. Bocchio, was low in H1. Should we expect this to continue in H2 and have a benefit versus the previous years? Or whether as well, like for the tax rates on one-offs helping you on that front? The first question. The second question, could you remind us broadly or approximately your OE share with Chinese automakers in H1, and as well directionally, where you stand in terms of China replacement share in H1, and how it improved versus H1 2025? Finally, I think you mentioned that you believe you could sign the first Cyber Tyre contracts with a premium automaker eventually in Q4, which is great.
May I please ask you to remind us what are the existing contracts today with prestige automakers, and whether you would expect a contract with a premium automaker to have you being the sole supplier of that car or whether the Cyber Tyre would be an option for the vehicles that would only be allocated to customers effectively choosing the Pirelli/Cyber Tyre solution. Thank you very much.
I will take the one related to the financial expenses, the net financial expenses. As you correctly pointed out, in the first half, we had a positive impact on financial expenses for about EUR 29 million compared to previous year. As I was saying, this is related to the lower gross debt and to the mix of debt between countries with a high interest rate and countries with lower interest rate. For the full year, we expect dynamic in second semester to be a little bit different. I expect a reduction in the financial charges related to the lower debt that will be at the same level for the second part of the year. On the other side, we expect some volatility and some negative impact from non-cash component linked to hyperinflation and FX volatility.
For the full year, the expectation is to arrive to a level that would be in the range of EUR 190 million-EUR 200 million. Let me say, similar to the full amount for 2025.
Moving to the second question, the OE market share we have in the premium segment It's similar in all the geographies. It means that we target always market share in the prestige, which is 100% concentrated in Europe, around 50% in the original equipment, while in the premium in between 20%-22%. The more we go onto the upper end, the more the market share of the product portfolio of the car makers, the more the market share is growing. That's exactly the market share we are performing in China, but only if we focus on the premium car makers, namely Li Auto, Xiaomi, Seres, Nio. These are the kind of newcomers in the EV we are working with.
That's the result of a strategy of customer base enlargement and diversification that we started five, six years ago, growing in share premium segment both in United States and in China. As far as the Cyber Tyre, yes, we are working with some very important prestige car makers in Europe. As I said before, we are enlarging the partnership and the collaboration with some premium car makers. As I said before, the Chinese premium car makers are very interested, not only because of the typical safety performance or driving performance of the prestige segment, but also because of the opportunities related to the autonomous driving.
With an autonomous driving solution, where the decision, if braking or steering, it will be in the hands, in brackets, of a software and no more let's say, the responsibility of a software and no more of a human, to have a very accurate estimation of the grip and the forces between the tire and the road, it will be of paramount importance to take the right decision. This is the kind of application we are working on with some of the most important premium Chinese car makers.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Ross MacDonald with Citi. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much for taking my questions, especially given we have run over slightly. The first one is just on organic growth and just noting that year-to-date, the organic growth for Pirelli is at the low end of the full year guidance corridor at 2.5%. We are talking a lot about a recovery in the second half on organic growth on price mix and volume. Specifically on Q3, how should we think about organic growth compared to the slightly lower 1.4% that we see in Q2? Would you expect organic growth to recover back to sort of midpoint of the full year guidance corridor, let's say above 3% as soon as Q3? Is this more of a Q4 loaded recovery? That's my first question. Second question, just coming back on the U.S. CapEx, to Christoph's question.
The $1 billion to $1.2 billion is a big number, but it's over several years. Could you maybe give us a sense of what that sort of check buys you in terms of capacity, just in terms of units? How should we think about the cost of a U.S. factory and what that would bring Pirelli in terms of capacity? My final question is just on the EV trends in Europe. These are growing quite strongly. You talk about the homologations with EV. I think your definition is EV plus plug-in hybrid. Specifically in the BEV segment, how do you feel about your market share versus your competitors on OE? Thank you.
Thank you. On the organic growth, we have performed at 2.5% in the first half and a bit below our expectation because mainly driven by the reduction of volume on standard, higher than expected. The Chinese original equipment where the demand in China, in the local market, was negative in the first six months, double-digit negative. More than expected. Our expectation for the second half is to stay in the ballpark of 4% of organic growth, mainly driven by price mix, 3%, and 1% on volume. We are confident on this growth. Nevertheless, it remains the organic growth of Pirelli, the highest in the tire industry. That's mainly driven by our overexposure to the high-value segment, representing now 82% of our sales. The high value is a growing segment and more resilient. U.S. capacity, yes, we announced it.
First of all, as you correctly said before, it is not fully approved by the board of directors. This will be included in one of the following board of directors meeting. A rough indication, it is in the ballpark of in between $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion investment. That is an investment that will target the highest possible level of automation and innovation in the plant. We are upgrading our MIRS technology with a new release. It will be capital-intensive, Europe tire, because of the high level of automation that will lead more efficiency, better quality performance, stability, and flexibility of the plant. The capacity we target to arrive at the end of the process of development in the year around six million fully high-value tires with a high flexible plant. Let us finalize approval, then we will be back with all the details of the project.
BEV homologations, in our view, the electrification, it will be the major technology in the car registration of the future. In China, we have seen already more than 60% of new car registration being fully electric or plug-in hybrid or range extended.
The most important and most relevant technology remains the full electric. In Europe, we have seen more than 20%, 23% of car registration being a new electric vehicle. Again, mainly full electric. While in the U.S., the percentage, it's below Europe and China, not far from 10%. We are confident that full electric will be the main technology, but also plug-in hybrid, it's growing. From a tire perspective, both powertrains requires the same performance. From a tire perspective, you need higher load index, better grip, lower rolling resistance, a better noise control performance. All in all, for us, it's a great opportunity.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Gianluca Bertuzzo with Intermonte SIM. Please go ahead.
Hello, good evening, and thank you for taking my question. I have a question on anti-dumping measures in Europe. What's your take on that? Do you think you can have some benefit or not? Second question is on your penetration with Chinese vehicles, but not in China. I'm referring in Europe. It is too early to measure your market share in the replacement channel with these Chinese vehicles, or can you share some of your achievement in that field? Thank you.
The anti-dumping measures, we welcome the final decision of Europe because the uncertainty before was creating a bit of confusion in the market. We welcome the final decision because we are confident that it will lead into a better stability. All in all, the dumping on the Chinese imported tires are not affecting our addressable market because it's our mainly standard tires. Not a direct impact on our sales, but a positive impact because finally, we'll create stability and clarity into the market. Penetration of Chinese car models is growing in Europe. As a matter of fact, the car registration in Europe of the most important Chinese players like BYD or Geely are growing. In the premium segment, the penetration of Chinese models is still very limited in Europe.
We see the penetration of EV in Europe in the premium and prestige segment still driven by the European car makers that are now in the process of introducing new car models with a very good performance. We are confident that the premium segment, and of course the prestige, will remain at least in the short term, two, three years, in the hands of the European car makers. Nevertheless, the penetration in the emerging market of the Chinese models is growing.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Jose Asumendi with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I want to go back again, please, to the Xushen Tyre joint venture. If you could please speak a bit more about the rationale of the partnership there, and whether we should be expecting any other financial impacts on the net financial position on the net debt during the year. Thank you.
Thank you for your question. The rationale is that we are now in the position to fully control an asset that is dedicated to the production of high-value product and the high content of technology. For us, strategically, it has been a positive movement. I leave the floor to Mr. Bocchio for the impact on the net financial position. Thank you.
For the impact on the net financial position, we already accounted for the impact, the consolidation of the debt of this JV at the beginning of the year. In quarter one, there was an impact of EUR 210 million. In quarter two, there was the exercise and effectively the payment of the call option for an additional EUR 247 million. In the net financial position achieved at the end of half one, it is already accounted for the full amount of the impact for the operation. Obviously, that plant is now creating value for the group. It is selling with an average contribution that is higher than the average of the group. Obviously, there is the cash flow generation coming from the operative business of that company. For the remaining part of the year, we don't have any additional impact to take into account considering the specific operation.
Thank you very much.
Mr. Tronchetti Provera, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Thank you for the attendance to our conference call. This ends our today's program. Thank you, and I wish you a very good evening.
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