Good afternoon, and welcome to Poste Italiane second quarter and first half 2024 results conference call. Matteo Del Fante, our CEO, will take you through some opening remarks, and then Camillo Greco, our CFO, will go over the financials. This will be followed by Q&A session, where you can ask questions, either by phone or through our webcast platform. Please limit yourself to two questions. Over to you, Matteo.
Good afternoon, and thank you for attending our Q2 and half 1, 2024 call. I will start the call with thanking again all our employees, and stakeholders. Our people play an important role, and I'm proud to say we have signed, in record time, a new collective labor contract, which represent a key milestone in the execution of our business plan, as it enables us to implement, the logistic and distribution transformation and increases visibility on the cost base. We are accelerating our strong, profitable, and cash-generative growth. For consistency with business plan targets, in today's presentation, we show an adjusted EBIT before the impact of the Insurance Guarantee Fund.
Furthermore, we'll be focusing on underlying growth, which does not take into consideration the impact of the Sennder capital gain, both in Q2 last year, active portfolio management, and the contribution to the Insurance Guarantee Fund, where applicable. In the first half of the year, revenue reached EUR 6.2 billion, up 3% year-on-year, or 7% on an underlying basis. Ongoing expense management remain a key focus as we continue to successfully mitigate inflationary impacts, while cost increase came from growing business volumes. Adjusted EBIT in half one is EUR 1.5 billion, up 14% on an underlying basis. Net profit, adjust over EUR 1 billion, also up 14% on an underlying basis. We continue to see positive net flows in investment products, with strong results in asset management and resilient insurance business in a challenging environment.
On the back of our performance in mail and parcel in H1, resilient since listing, very solid PostePay services result, as well as high efficiencies on our cost base, we are today upgrading our full year 2024 adjusted EBIT guidance to EUR 2.8 billion. Let's focus for a moment on the new collective labor agreement on slide four. I'm very pleased to announce this new mutually beneficial national labor contract, finalized in record time and signed just last week. Also, on behalf of our Chairwoman, Silvia Rovere, and our General Manager, Giuseppe Lasco, I would like to thank everyone involved in this process, and specifically the labor unions for their extremely constructive approach.
Firstly, we signed an agreement on the reorganization of our logistic operation, which is unique in the sector, and will enable Poste to build a future-proof network. We will implement a directly managed, parcel-dedicated network with our own employees, ensuring the level of flexibility which is required in the parcel market. In particular, our parcel-dedicated network will be able to deliver items of up to 10 kilograms and will work up to 39 hours a week, with more flexible daily and weekly shifts to meet the new market needs. This agreement is a measure building block of our strategic plans, in particular with respect to the target of up to 2/3 of parcel delivered by our employees by 2028.
Secondly, thanks to the new agreement, we will be able to implement a new distribution model for financial services in the postal offices, a key ingredient in the 2028 plan. Finally, regarding compensation, the new agreement covers the four-year period from 2024 to 2027, with an overall average monthly increase of EUR 230 by 2027, starting from September 2025, and a lump sum EUR 1,000 to be paid in September 2024, of which 60% covers 2024, and 40% covering up to August 2025. The operating and financial impacts of the agreement are fully consistent with our 2024/2028 business plan.
Today, we significantly increase the visibility on the evolution of our growth base. Let's move to group financial results on slide 5. We have continued generating profitable growth in the second quarter and first half of 2024. Let's focus on the latter, where we generated 7% year-on-year underlying growth in the top line to EUR 6.2 billion. Adjusted EBIT in the first half of 2024 is at EUR 1.5 billion, up 14% year-on-year on an underlying basis, with net profit at over EUR 1 billion, up 14% as well. On slide 6, you can see the acceleration of the positive trends across all businesses in Q2 this year. In Mail, Parcel & Distribution, H1 revenues amount to EUR 1.9 billion, driven by double-digit parcel volume growth.
We were gaining market share in all customer segments, as well as higher register mail volume and repricing actions, more than offsetting unregistered mail volume decline. This is the highest quarterly year-on-year mail and parcel revenue growth recorded since listing by Poste Italiane, excluding the post-COVID period, obviously. In financial services, revenues were up 9% in the quarter and 7% in the first half on an underlying basis, driven by record NII since listing again, and positive commercial trends across products. Insurance revenues were up 13% in the quarter and 7% in the first half, as a result of resilient life, investment, and pension, and fast growing and profitable protection insurance businesses.
PostePay services continue to grow double digits in the half, thanks to increased card and digital payments, and our leadership in e-commerce transaction, with our successful energy business making an important contribution to the revenue growth. Let's go to slide 7, and EBIT evolution by segment. Mail, parcel, and distribution shows an underlying EUR 80 million EBIT improvement compared to the first half of 2023, supported by a strong revenue momentum across products. Financial services operating profitability is resilient and improving in Q2, reflecting revenue trends and higher distribution network costs. Insurance services EBIT reflects the strong performance of our protection business and resilient results in life investment and pension. Finally, PostePay service double-digit EBIT growth is driven by strong top line performance. Let's move to a more detailed review of our numbers by our CFO. Over to you, Camillo.
Thank you, Matteo. Hello, everyone. Let's move to slide number 9 on mail, parcel, and distribution. Revenues amount to EUR 954 million in Q2, and EUR 1.9 billion in H1, up respectively 7% and 6% on underlying basis. Mail revenues at EUR 548 million were up a remarkable 7% in Q2, and up 5% to over EUR 1 billion in H1, supported by a favorable business mix with higher volumes of registered mail and repricing actions, with the latest major also repricing applied since July 2023. Parcel revenues were up 15% to EUR 375 million in Q2, and up 12% to EUR 743 million in H1, supported by all customer segments with a further acceleration in Q1 growth trends.
Distribution revenues from other business units are up 8% in Q2, reflecting positive commercial trends and compensating for higher network costs. Let's look at volumes and tariffs on slide 10. Parcel volumes are up a robust 26% in Q2, and 23% in H1, with growth in all customer segments, from large e-commerce platforms to small, medium merchants, as we are managing increasing volumes, gaining market share from our competitors, also on the back of strong performances during peak periods. Items delivered via the postal network increased from 35% to 39% in Q2, in line with our targets and positively impacting the business unit's profitability. Looking at pricing, the reduction in average parcel tariffs in the quarter is related to a mixed effect of increasing volumes with lower pricing and lower delivery unit costs.
Moving to mail, the volume decline is related to lower margin un recorded items. Higher margin registered mail volumes have grown mid- to high-single digits in the first half. This, coupled with effective repricing actions, have generated a 13% increase of the average tariff. Moving to financial services on slide number 11. Gross revenues are at EUR 1.6 billion in Q2, up 7%, and up to EUR 3.1 billion in H1, up 5% on an underlying basis. Net interest income came at EUR 653 million in Q2, up 16%, and over EUR 1.2 billion in H1, up 12%, representing the highest quarterly and half year NII we recorded since listing.
Such record NII is driven by higher interest rates, combined with our proactive portfolio management activity, allowing us to lock in higher rates, thus enabling an increased visibility on future portfolio return. Postal savings distribution fees added EUR 415 million in Q2, up 3%, and at EUR 844 million in H1, up 2%, supported by continued commercial focus. Transaction banking fees are stable at EUR 181 million in Q2, reflecting the same current account pricing as in Q2 2023. Consumer loans distribution fees continue to regain ground, with volumes at EUR 121 million in H1, up 16%, supported by higher volumes. Asset management fees came at EUR 52 million in Q2, up 35%, and EUR 97 million in H1, up 43%, benefiting from record high net inflows in the first half of 2024.
Finally, adjusted EBIT up 9% to EUR 218 million in Q2 on an underlying base, reflecting positive revenue trends and higher distribution network costs. Moving to slide 12. TFAs reached EUR 589 billion, up EUR 8 billion since the end of 2023. Once again, Poste Italiane has adapted its offer to meet evolving client needs in order to have a compelling financial proposition in all market environments, reaching EUR 4 billion net inflows in the first half. Let's look at each component. We reported a remarkable EUR 2.8 billion net inflows in investment products, which is the sum of mutual funds and life investment and pension. Within this group, we reported record numbers in mutual funds, driven by strong demand for our target date fixed income products, allowing us to minimize outflows from managed products.
As of May, we are the leading asset manager in Italy in terms of net inflows, according to Assogestioni. Our life insurance business remains resilient in a challenging market, still recording positive net inflows year to date. Postal savings net outflows improved versus last year, driven by high maturities, mitigated by interest accrual, as well as highly successful new commercial initiatives. This includes offers targeting new liquidity, generating EUR 5 billion inflows in the first half of the year. Deposits benefited from higher balancing from PA clients, while retail deposits were resilient, confirming the stickiness and loyalty of our customer base. Moving to slide 13. Insurance services revenues reached EUR 413 million in Q2, and EUR 827 million in H1, up respectively 13% and 7%, supported by a resilient life business and a fast-growing protection one.
As mentioned previously, life investment and pension net flows should be considered in the context of a strong client demand for fixed income mutual funds. Yet we continue to outperform the market with positive net inflows in H1 of EUR 0.3 billion and a lapse rate of 6.4%, still well below market levels, currently estimated at above 11%. In this context, we are rolling out commercial initiatives that will positively contribute to life net inflows in the second part of the year. Among those, a policy with returns linked to specific assets, collecting EUR 0.5 billion in June and July, and the recent launch of a life insurance product with a return profile similar to fixed income mutual funds.
Life investment and pension revenues are up 8% in Q2 to EUR 378 million, and up 2% in H1 at EUR 740 million, supported by stable CSM with higher release percentage in the quarter. Protection revenues continue to increase materially year on year and are up a remarkable 77%, both in Q2 and H1. Protection revenue growth is driven by higher volumes and improving combined ratio, which going forward we expect to be in line with our guidance of 85%. Adjusted EBIT is at EUR 378 million in Q2, up 15%, and at EUR 727 million in H1, up 9%. On slide 14, we show the CSM evolution.
Normalized CSM growth increased 1.3% in the first half of 2024 versus 0.4% in Q1, with new business and expected return more than compensating the release. Therefore, Q2 normalized CSM growth accelerated to 2.2%. We expect this KPI to further improve in the second half of the year as a result of the commercial initiatives mentioned earlier. Group CSM at the end of the first half stood at EUR 13.5 billion, providing strong visibility on the division sustainable profitability going forward. Let's look at the solvency ratio evolution on slide 15.
Poste Vita Group's solvency 297% at the end of June 2024, well above our managerial ambition of circa 200% through the cycle, and already embedding the new remittance ratio 100% to the parent company, more than compensated by internal capital generation. The 16 percentage points decline from March 2024 is due to rates and spreads widening in the quarter. Such an impact has already been partially absorbed in July, as our solvency ratio is currently between 295 and 310%. Moving to PostePay services on slide number 16. Revenues are up 9% to EUR 382 million in Q2, and up 13% to EUR 761 million in H1.
Payments revenues up 7% to EUR 281 million in Q2, and up 10% to EUR 464 million in H1, driven by increasing transaction value, with e-commerce growing 16% in Q2 and H1, combined with an increase in total ecosystem transactions, including top-ups, growing 11%. Results are also supported by the strong performance of our IBAN-backed PostePay Evolution cards, showing a 5% year-on-year increase in stock to 10.2 million cards, with a well above market transaction value increase of 18% in H1. Telco revenues are resilient to EUR 163 million in H1, and impacted by a marginally lower client base versus last year, though growing versus Q1. Finally, continued positive commercial trends in our energy business are confirmed, with EUR 34 million net revenues in H1.
Yet again, thanks to strong revenue growth, adjusted EBIT grew a remarkable 19% to EUR 132 million in Q2, and 25% to EUR 214 million in H1. On slide 17, we look at our workforce evolution. Since the end of 2023, the average headcount decreased to 118,000, as we continue to renew our workforce with 2,800 new hires in the quarter. HR cost per FTE are up almost 5% to EUR 47,000 as a result of salary increases and other items, such as variable compensations, with value added per FTE growing by around 3% at EUR 85,000 per FTE. Moving to group HR costs on slide number 18.
Ordinary HR costs are up 4% in H1 to EUR 2.8 billion, which already, which was already in line with the new collective labor agreement. In the quarter, ordinary HR cost and revenue were stable at 41%. Moving to slide 19, non-HR costs increased by 7% to EUR 2.1 billion in H1. In particular, costs were up EUR 137 million, mainly driven by EUR 87 million of additional variable costs, reflecting higher business volumes and EUR 60 million inflation impact, while non-inflation related fixed costs decreased by EUR 10 million. Our focus on cost discipline remains razor sharp, and protecting the bottom line for stability remains our top priority. Thank you for your time. Let me hand over to Matteo for the wrap-up.
Thank you, Camillo. Our anti-fragile physical business model, designed for sustainability, has proven itself again with these results. Year-to-date performance continues to be strong in all segments, with a further acceleration of positive trends in Q2. As always, we remain focused on continuing to deliver with discipline, as we progress on the execution of the Connecting Platform 2028 business plan. We have also achieved the key milestones of the new labor agreement, which is crucial to the transformation of our logistics business and implementation of the new service model, providing us a full visibility on our cost base evolution over the plan.
This achievement, coupled with strong first half results, supports upgrading full year 2024 adjusted EBIT guidance to EUR 2.8 billion. Let me remind you that our new dividend policy is based on a minimum 65% payout ratio, and therefore is directly linked to our financial results. Finally, I want to thank again our dedicated employees, whose hard work, commitment, and professional skills are key to the strong results we continue to achieve. Thank you, everybody, and Giuseppe, over to you for the Q&A.
Thank you, Matteo. Let's begin with the question and answer session. Let me remind you that to ask a question, you need to press star one, and to remove yourself from the question queue, you need to press star two. The first question is from Gianluca Ferrari at Mediobanca. Go ahead, Gianluca.
Yes. Hi, good afternoon, everyone. So the first question is on the increase in NII Q-on-Q. I was wondering if you can quantify the swap component in there, and if we can define that as a kind of one-off projecting Q3 and Q4. The second thing is on the CSM release. There was a sharp pickup in the second quarter, more than 10%, if we can have a guidance for the year. I have a third one, if I may, lapse rate in life moving up in Q2, but inflow were pretty much flat in insurance. So what happened here? Are you incentivizing some kind of exits from GNA savings to move into unit linked, or what happened to justify these two trends? Thank you.
Thank you, Gianluca. I will give a short overview on the second question and then let Camillo answer more specifically the first and second questions, which are both important for us. We experienced in the first half demand from fixed income higher yield products by our clients in the network. In other words, with you know fixed income markets providing 3, 3.5, 4% revenues we had to put on the table as soon as we could mutual funds that could package those bonds for our investors in the easiest way possible. And from there, our record net retail collection on mutual funds.
And we were relatively fast, but probably not as fast as, you know, we could have been, on providing the same products with insurance wrapper, which came in the final version at the end of the quarter in June, and is showing since then good results. So, a portion of the increase in the lapse has move into insurance, but there is also a component that is also moving to mutual funds. But I'll let Camillo go more in detail in-
Okay.
Thank you.
I will start answering with, with NII. So with respect to the, increase quarter-on-quarter, have been, sort of more in general terms, our, our portfolio is obviously combined by different branches of business. We have fixed rate, we have, fixed for start, we have variable rate, we have tax credit, and we have deposit in the public administration. So the increase is a result of a different mix evolution of those subcomponents.
With respect to what has happened, the first thing that has happened is that the, numbers that we had budgeted in terms of short-term rates, have been, in a way, not confirmed, as there we had in our budget 2, 2 cuts in the short term. There was only 1, 1 cut, so that had a positive impact on the variable portion of our, portfolio. And as I think you mentioned, we also re-fixed in March part of the swap portfolio, and that generated around EUR 20 million of incremental NII. With respect to the CSM release-
So sorry, Camillo. Sorry. So you are telling us that EUR 654 million NII in Q2, only EUR 20 million is a non-repeatable component in Q3 and Q4, the rest is recurring. Am I right?
No, I didn't say that. What I'm saying, I repeat, is that we have, we have, a portfolio which has, fixed and, fixed and variable. There is a portion of that which is EUR 20 million, but there is also a variable component of the, there's also a variable component of the portfolio, which will, progress in line with the rates. And on a full year basis, our estimate is that vis-à-vis the EUR 2.3 billion that we gave of total portfolio return for the first, in terms of the budget, we probably have EUR 100 million more at year-end.
Okay, very clear. Thank you.
With respect to the point about the coverage unit and the CSM release, we expect that to be between 8% and 9% on a full year. We have not given guidance on year-end on CSM. What we said is that we would expect to have a normalized rate in terms of growth, around 5%. And based on what we have today, we expect that to be in the area of 3% as a result of the new actions that we have described. What we also confirm is the number at year-end in terms of revenues for the division, which we expect to be in excess of EUR 1.6 billion as a combined of life and protection revenues.
Thank you very much.
Okay, thank you. Next question is from Irene Rossetto at Jefferies. Go ahead, Irene.
Hello to everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I have one on payments. Could you provide more color on why your revenues and the volumes dynamics seem to be much stronger than the one of the market? Thank you.
So, the question is, with respect to the performance, the performance of PostePay, as I mentioned in my script, we have a business which is skewed towards non-discretionary spending, which has been performing well. We've also had a continued increase of the usage of our PostePay Evolution cards, which I remind the audience, are the cards which have an IBAN number associated to that, which now have a stock in excess of EUR 10 billion, and it's continuing to grow. So, that effect is the main driver of the performance, together with the increased average transaction value.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Alberto Villa at Intermonte. Go ahead, Alberto.
Yes, thank you very much. A couple of questions. One is back on the net inflows dynamics. I understood from the previous answer that there would be a return to a more normalized level of contribution coming from the different segments. But I was wondering if you still expect also in the second half of the year a strong contribution to net inflows coming from the asset management, and if you have sort of a target for the full year 2024 in terms of net inflows for the asset management.
Related to that, on the postal savings, if you have any comment on the dynamics we can expect on the second half? will be helpful, and on the margins on the life products, we have many of your competitors that decrease the commissions on life insurance to, let's say, propel inflows in a period of outflows. Did you have any change in your way of charging commissions on your life products in line with the rest of the industry, or this is not the case for Post? Thank you.
Thank you, Alberto. Let me just, you know, do an add-on on Irene's question, if I may. Camillo's point on the PostePay Evolution is a key element of our strategy. Having reached 10 million cards, these are cards that are paid by clients to be owned, and there is a very large portion of the 10.2 million cards issued that are replacing a current account. So they are a current account light, given they have an IBAN code, and those are the cards that are showing the biggest increase in terms of volumes, and those are the cards that are allowing us today to grow more than the market.
In terms of Alberto's question, I would take the postal savings and then let Camillo for the net inflows and the margin on the life products. Postal savings, we had a very solid first half. There is usually a strong H2 seasonality in postal savings business, starting usually with a very strong August. So the fact that we did a strong H1, supported by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti product generation and attention to the network and to the investor sensitivities, is, we believe, a good sign to, you know, achieve our budget and our targets for year-end.
Okay, so with respect to the question on Poste Vita, Poste Vita margin, we have launched a new product, as I mentioned in my script in July. That product has specifically some promotional features, apart from the general public and part for employees. So we expect it is going to be margin, some margin compression in the product specifically. But overall, our fees in the first six months of the year have been more or less stable between 180 basis points and 165 basis points, with being first half of 165 basis points above our budget.
With respect to the other question, which was on asset management targets, I think that, as both said, by the CEO and by myself in the script, we are the first half of the year where we had heavily biased towards asset management. I think we said as of March, we are the largest beneficiary of inflows, according to our suggestion. We do expect the second half of the year to have a different trend, with greater emphasis on insurance, to get closer to our targets and probably a performance more modest on asset management.
Well, thank you for your answers.
Thank you. Next question is from Farouk Anis at JPMorgan . Go ahead, Farouk.
Hi, everybody. Thanks. I hope you can hear me. Can you just explain again the sensitivity of the coverage units in the life business and how interest rates impact that? So, I mean, we're still expecting, essentially, if macro conditions remain where they are, that the CSM and release rate will continue. So just a question around that. Secondly, on NII, I just want to clarify your answer to a previous question.
I think you said it was EUR 100 million higher than budget. Is this a run rate at the moment? I remember your budget, your target is obviously to keep NII quite flat over the plan period. So if we added this into our forecast, do you expect to still maintain flat or higher NII going forward? Maybe just a very quick clarification also on the lump sum that you're paying. Can I just confirm that this is kind of a, you know, a one-off lump sum paid in September, and there are no more expected in the plan period? Thank you very much.
Okay. Okay, I'll start with the last one. Yes, it's EUR 1,000 paid on the first of September, and it covers basically 8 months... Sorry, 12 months of 2024, and 8 months of 2025... and on the second and on the first and second question, please.
Okay, I'll start with NII. So what we had in the presentation in the capital market day, page number 69, what we had was that we had for 2024, a total portfolio return of around EUR 2.3 billion. Two point three billion was mainly driven by NII, where around EUR 50 million of capital gain in that amount. Where we are now, is that we are in two point four billion area without having capital gains. As the performance of the NII that I just described, is sufficient to increase by EUR 100 million without having need to generate capital gain on the portfolio. So that is a delta of EUR 100 million.
With respect to the question on, on CSM, I am going to get the right page and answer that, too. Just one second. Okay. Yes, Farouk, basically, the coverage unit has gone up in the quarter because of increase of interest rates and spreads. So, you know, it's a technical consequence of the movement of market parameters. So basically, the trend in the next quarter will depend on how interest rates and spread will move.
Can I just follow up very quickly on NII? So, thanks for that clarification. So you've got that extra EUR 100 million, and that, and that's also sustainable. So even, even the swap refixing is kind of a sustainable amortization. So if, if we take your EUR 2.5 billion guidance for 2028, are you, are you changing that as well?
Okay. So, so without starting back from Adam and Eve, the answer is no. We look at the portfolio as a total return, which is combination of NII and capital gains. We moved to this definition in March, so we think about them on an aggregate basis. As mentioned, we benefited from the fact that short-term curve was higher than we expected. We embedded in our plan two cuts. There was one by the ECB. At this stage, we are not changing our guidance beyond 2024. However, I remind you and the other others from the audience, that we had in the slide of my colleague, Guido Nola, a sensitivity, specifically page number sixty- I think it is page number 62, apologize. Where, in the industrial plan, where you can see that under any scenario, we are capable to perform at least what we committed to back in March.
Yeah, and if I may add, when we reach, or specifically in this quarter, we exceed our targets without using capital gains, it means that basically we are not selling securities that have a capital gain. Which means that they have coupons which are higher than the market, and create liquidity, that we will obviously have to reinvest at lower return. So, we should look at our results of NII increase without capital gain has a double positive for the actual reported figure, which is higher than anticipated, and for not having used future cash flow from our portfolio.
That's very clear. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Next question is from Michael Huttner at Berenberg. Go ahead, Michael.
Yeah. Fantastic. Thanks, Giuseppe and, Matteo and, Camillo. Thanks for an excellent presentation. I had, two questions. One is, a little bit complicated. I hope you can follow me, and the other one is really, really simple. On the complicated one, so EUR 1.5 billion EBIT in adjusted EBIT in the first half. The, the kind of one-offs I detected, or to come, whatever, there's EUR 20 million, this sort thing, and then there's EUR 60 million to come, I guess, my estimate from the, EUR 1,000 budget. So 60% of, 1,000 times number of employees. So if I adjust for that, I would get in the second half, EUR 1.4 billion.
I didn't actually see any other negatives talked about, so I get to a figure of 2.9 or actually just over 2.9. Is there something I'm missing or is it just the same as policy prudence, which is coming through? So I'd be interested in that. And then the second question is really simply sitting. You know, the EUR 78 million for the insurance fund, what do you get for that? And my guess, the answer I'd like to hear, is that the Eurovita lapses or profit, whatever, you're actually going to make a profit on that portfolio. I don't know if you could discuss that. Thanks.
Okay, I'll start with the second question. I mean, we are due to pay EUR 74 million specifically of at the group level as an insurance fund at year-end, which will directly impact our net income, and it was already embedded in our connecting platform plans of, you know, last March. The link of what we will get with that fund with Eurovita, Michael, cannot is not possible, in the sense that we're committing the resources to the fund, and then, you know, the regulator will make decision on the collective amount of funds that all insurance and financial intermediaries have to commit. If you ask the question, how is Eurovita legacy portfolio progressing?
I can update you and tell you that it's progressing very well, and we have no reason to register any impairment on the initial investment we made, which is short of EUR 50 million. Have basically taken control of those networks that have been allocated to Poste Italiane on the back of this 20%+ stake in the new co. Saying whether this is gonna be a capital gain at the end of the plan, I think is very premature.
On the complicated question, there is probably a very easy answer, not to disappoint you, but we do last quarter non-ordinary personnel how you say adjustments, so contributions, contributions. So you cannot basically extrapolate, you know, the six months or the nine months into the twelve, because the last quarter is by construction weaker, because it's a quarter where we've always made our annual contribution to the non-ordinary HR cost, and is a one-off Q4.
Very clear. Super. Thank you so much.
Okay. Thank you, Michael. Next question from Elena Perini, Banca IMI. Hi, Elena.
Yes. Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. Actually, I've got only one last, which is about your combined ratio, which had a very strong improvement in the first half of this year, compared to the first half of 2023. 83%, from 88. Can you elaborate a bit on this improvement and can we consider the 83% as a normalized level going forward? Because it is a very important point also for the support of the protection revenues. Thank you.
Okay. I'll let Camillo answer, but the level already of half one of 2023 of 88% was extremely good. And Camillo will tell you what will happen in the second half. Please, Camillo.
Well, what will happen in the second half is that we confirm the target of 85% for full year. We have had, we started to benefit of the contribution of Net Insurance, which I remind Elena, we consolidate Net from the first of April 2023. So there is, you know, there are six month- there are three months in the first six months of 2024 that have not been consolidated. The dynamics of, the dynamics of the loss ratio of Net are different, and, you know, played, played in that level. But we confirm 85% for full year, which is the number that the budget that Mr. Novelli shared back in March.
Okay. Next question from Manuela Meroni, Banca IMI as well. Hi, Manuela.
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have a follow-up on the NII. You are guiding for EUR 2.4 billion in 2024. That means, approximately EUR 100 million lower NII in the second half compared with the first half. So I'm wondering when you expect the NII to start declining. So can we expect, a stabilization in the third quarter and then a decline in the fourth quarter, or are you are expecting a different trend? The second question is another follow-up on, the new labor agreement. Should we expect some one-off costs in 2024 related to, to the lump sum of, EUR 1,000 in the third quarter, or this is already embedded in the, the, let's say, ordinary, costs?...
Staff cost, and I also wondering if we may expect a material increase of the cost of staff in the second half, compared with the first half, also considering that the HR cost per FTE has already increased by 4.7% in the first half, compared with last year. The third question is on the energy business. The antitrust ask you to open your postal offices excluded from the Polis Project to other players in the gas and power sector. So I'm wondering if you expect any material effect on your target for the business, and any color you can provide it would be helpful. Last question on mail business, I'm wondering if you are expecting any repricing action in the second half of 2024, and what is the potential, potentially effect? Thank you.
Thank you, Manuela. I will answer the second, the third, and the fourth, and let Camillo focus on the NII, which seems to be top of everybody's agenda. On the labor agreement, no, there is no one-off to be expected in Q3 or Q4. It's already embedded on our forecast, no specific increase versus labor cost of Q2 and Q1. On energy, yes, I mean, the latest document from the antitrust has to a large extent softened the obligations versus the initial position taken versus Poste.
So obviously, we are going to collaborate in the rest of 2024, but not worried nor anticipating any impact on our business production and business activities in energy. On Mail business, no, unfortunately, we are not anticipating any specific one-off universal service repricing, which will not be possible in 2024. The first universal service window to be repriced is March 2021, specifically. There is an ongoing repricing on the non-universal service on the private side, which will keep taking place at the pace you've seen over the last two years.
That's, I think, you know, if I want to make an estimate, is 50% of the increase overall. Bear in mind that first half of 2024, we benefited from the comparison with the first half of 2023, which was before the Universal Service increase of 1 July 2023. So second half of 2024, the Mail increase will not be of the same magnitude of the first half of 2021--2024, obviously. Please, Camillo.
So yeah, with respect to NII, it's the third, it's the third question, this, so I'll repeat it once and for all, hopefully. So we had EUR 2.3 billion expected for 2024. I want to clarify, first of all, the EUR 2.3 billion is an interval of EUR 100 million, because it's 2.251-2.349, and we are taking it now to 2.4. So if you look at the sort of, you know, the lower end of the initial range, and you took the-- take the upper end of the new range, there are EUR 200 million, if you wanted to, you know, also, you know, look at that. Point number one. Point number two, we said that in those EUR 2.3 billion, there were around EUR 50 million of capital gain.
We're telling you, we're not planning to do any incremental capital gain. The third thing I'll say, that I didn't say before, instead, is that we had an overall expected yield on the portfolio for 2024 of around 260 basis points, net of costs, okay? So net of cost of funding. We're now looking at a level which is around 15 basis points, 15-20 basis points incremental to that. And what I'm also saying is that to the extent that the rates will go down,
because ECB decides to cut rate, vis-a-vis the two that we have embedded in the general plan, obviously, that will have an impact on the NII in the second half. But because we have the next refixing in September for the variable portfolio. But, irrespective of that, we are very confident we are going to make at least EUR 2.4 billion of total return on the portfolio, which is going to be, at this point, entirely driven by NII with no incremental capital gain.
Thank you.
There's no further question. Thank you very much.
Thank you, everybody, for taking the time, and, obviously, we're all available, starting with Giuseppe Esposito, our Head of Investor Relations. Thanks again.