Poste Italiane S.p.A. (BIT:PST)
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Apr 27, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

May 8, 2025

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Good afternoon and welcome to Poste Italiane First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. In a few moments, the CEO, Matteo Del Fante, will take you through some opening remarks, and then the CFO, Camillo Greco, will cover the financials. As usual, after the presentation, we will have a Q&A session where you can ask questions either via phone or through our webcast platform. For any topics we won't be able to cover today, please contact the Investor Relations team. We'll provide any clarifications you may require. So with that, over to you, Matteo.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our Q1 2025 Results Call. We're pleased to report a very strong start of the year with record first quarter revenues and double-digit year-on-year EBIT growth. These results are yet another demonstration of the solidity of our business model, discipline execution, and our continued ability to adapt and grow in a dynamic environment. All business units contributed to a solid 5% year-on-year revenue growth, totaling EUR 3.2 billion. This performance was driven by strong net interest income, continued momentum in parcel, strong net inflows in investment products, and Postepay services ecosystem growth. On the profitability front, adjusted EBIT came in at EUR 796 million, up 13% year-on-year, with a net profit of EUR 597 million, a remarkable 19% increase compared to the same period last year.

Ongoing expense management remains a key focus as we continue to successfully mitigate inflationary impacts while cost increase came from expanding businesses. Our balance sheet remains extremely solid, supporting our recently upgraded dividend policy. Solvency II ratio remains well above 300%, including the dividend accrued on Q1 2025 results and the impact of the first EUR 500 million of additional remittance from Poste Vita to the parent company. As announced, we will pay the balance of our 2024 dividend of around EUR 970 million at the end of June, bringing the total dividend for the year to EUR 1.4 billion, equivalent to EUR 1.08 per share. As you know, at the end of March, we signed an agreement to acquire from Vivendi 15% of TIM ordinary shares, a transaction that is expected to close in Q2 2025, bringing our total stake in TIM to 24.8% of the voting capital.

With this long-term strategic investment, we plan to support the consolidation of the Italian telco market. We're advancing on several work streams to generate synergies over time between Poste Italiane and TIM. We have signed an MoU with TIM for the new MVNO contract, expected to start from the beginning of 2026. Let's move to group financial results on slide four, please. We have posted record first quarter revenues at EUR 3.2 billion, up 5% year-on-year. Adjusted EBIT for the quarter is at EUR 796 million and net profit at EUR 597 million, up 13% and 19%, respectively. These figures, I want to underline, are the highest we ever reported in the first quarter. On slide five, the strong underlying revenue momentum across all our business segments continues into the new year. In mail parcel and distribution, revenue growth was driven by increasing parcel volume.

The anticipated decline in mail volume is effectively mitigated through ongoing repricing actions. In financial services, revenues increased by 6% year-on-year to EUR 1.4 billion, supported by record level NII and solid commercial performance. Insurance services deliver strong profitability in both life and protection segments. Revenue rose 11% in the quarter, reflecting higher CSM and risk adjustment release. Postepay unique and integrated ecosystem for everyday services delivered growth in both revenues and profitability. Payment revenues benefited from an overall increase in card usage by our clients. The telco customer base remained solid and stable, while the number of energy clients has almost doubled year-on-year, reaching around 800,000 clients. Let's move to slide six and EBIT evolution by segment. Mail, Parcel and Distribution reported an adjusted EBIT of EUR 25 million for the quarter, in line with our full-year guidance.

Financial Services operating profitability is up 31% to EUR 260 million, driven by record NII and overall strong revenue trends. Insurance Services EBIT is up 9%, supported by both life, investment, and protection. Finally, Postepay double-digit EBIT growth to EUR 133 million is driven by resilient top-line performance and stable cost. Let's move to a more detailed review of our numbers by our CFO, Camillo Greco, please.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Matteo, and good afternoon, everyone. Let's move to slide eight on mail parcel and distribution. Revenues totaled EUR 949 million, up 2% year-on-year. Mail revenues at EUR 520 million are slightly down by 3%, in line with the trend that we anticipated for our fiscal year 2025 guidance in February. In addition, year-on-year comparison mail revenues is unfavorable this quarter as Q1 2024 benefited from positive one-off items. Let me also remind you that mail revenues will benefit from the new USO pricing from April 2025, with an estimated positive impact on revenues of around EUR 3 million a month. Parcel revenues were up 7% to EUR 393 million, with growth recorded across customer segments. Distribution revenues from other business units are up 4% in the quarter, reflecting positive commercial trends across the group.

Adjusted EBIT at EUR 25 million in Q1 2025 is well in line with the guidance provided for the full year. Let's look at volumes and tariffs on slide nine. Parcel volumes were up 9%, supported by strong market positioning across all customer segments, with 40% of items now delivered via the postal network. We have also recorded a 70% increase in deliveries through the Punto Poste network, leading to delivery efficiencies both in terms of cost and lower CO2 emissions. Preliminary trends emerging from April numbers show an acceleration of parcel volumes growth versus Q1. Looking at pricing, the average tariff remains broadly stable as the volume growth is spread across all customer segments. Moving to mail, the volume trend is in line with expectations, and preliminary data show an acceleration of registered mail volumes compared to Q1 2025.

Finally, the higher mail average tariff to over EUR 1 reflects ongoing repricing actions across both regulated and market products. As already mentioned, the new pricing on regulated products effective from April is expected to generate an additional EUR 3 million revenues per month. Moving to financial services on slide number ten. Gross revenues for the quarter came at EUR 1.7 billion, up 7%. Net interest income came at a record EUR 666 million in Q1, up a strong 13%, benefiting from management yield enhancement actions combined with supportive rates environment.

Postal saving distribution fees amounted to EUR 441 million, up 3% year-on-year, supported by improving gross inflows. Consumer loan distribution fees reached EUR 71 million, up 14% versus Q1 2024, driven by higher margins. Asset management revenues resilient at EUR 44 million in Q1, with higher assets under management compensating lower upfront fees. Finally, adjusted EBIT came in at EUR 260 million, reflecting the positive revenue trend.

Moving to slide eleven, TFAs reached EUR 596 billion, up EUR 5 billion in the three months from the end of 2024. Let's look at each component. We reported strong EUR 1.6 billion net inflows in investment products, confirming the positive trend in life insurance, where net inflows reached EUR 0.9 billion, continuing to outperform the market. Deposits were up, benefiting from higher balances from PA clients and resilient retail deposits, stable at EUR 58 billion, confirming the stickiness and loyalty of our customer base. Postal savings net outflows were driven by high maturities, mitigated by a new commercial initiative. Moving to slide twelve, insurance services revenues amounted to EUR 442 million in the quarter, up 11% year-on-year. We continue to have positive net flows in Q1 2025, supported by newly launched products and strong commercial efforts, continuing to outperform the market.

Our lapse rate of 8.6% reflects proactive client portfolio rebalancing activities, as also demonstrated by the positive net flows. Let me highlight that in Q1 2025, around 40% of our lapses have been reinvested into new life insurance products. Life investment and pension revenues are up 10% to EUR 470 million in Q1, driven by higher CSM and risk adjustment release. Protection revenues were up a strong 22% in the quarter, supported by higher gross return premiums, up 19% to EUR 371 million in Q1, and strong profitability. Let me remind you that Q1 2025 protection numbers are exactly on a like-for-like basis, with no change in perimeter. The combined ratio was 83% in Q1, while we confirmed our fiscal year 2025 guidance to about 85%. Adjusted EBIT of EUR 378 million is up 9% compared to Q1 2024, supported by both life investment and protection.

On slide 13, we show the CSM evolution in the quarter. Normalized CSM growth is strongly positive, at 3.6% annualized, up from 2.5% in Q1 2024, with a strong increase in new business value and expected return more than compensating the quarterly release. Group CSM at the end of the quarter is at EUR 13.6 billion, providing strong visibility on the division's sustainable profitability going forward. Let's look at the solvency ratio evolution on slide 14. Poste Vita Group's solvency ratio was 203% or 205% at the end of March 2025, well above the managerial ambition of circa 200% through the cycle. This ratio already embeds the 100% remittance of net profits for the period to the parent company, as well as the impact from the first EUR 500 million additional remittance, which will be paid next June.

The decline was mainly related to the negative impact from economic variances, driven by the increasing rates and BTP spread in the first quarter, while the internal capital generation of the business fully covers for the foreseeable dividend accrued in Q1 2025. The decline in both rates and spreads observed in April resulted in an improvement of our solvency ratio that currently stands at 315% or so. Moving to Postepay services on slide 15, revenues rose by 5% year-on-year to EUR 398 million in Q1, as our unique everyday ecosystem continues to drive top-line and profitability growth. Payment revenues are resilient at EUR 284 million in the quarter, supported by higher transaction value and growth in total number of ecosystem transactions at 9%, proof of the increase in card usage by our clients. This performance offsets the decline in instant payment revenues following recent EU regulatory changes.

Total transaction value is up 6% year-on-year, impacted by a tough comparison in Q1 2024, who benefited from seasonality. Preliminary transaction value data for April already shows encouraging signs of acceleration versus Q1 2025, with 15% transaction value growth. Telco revenues grew 2% in Q1 versus last year, supported by our stable client base and the rollout of our fiber offer. Finally, energy revenues are at EUR 32 million, reflecting positive market trends and a solid customer base evolution, currently standing at around 800,000 clients, twice the Q1 2024 base. Adjusted EBIT grew a strong 13% to EUR 133 million in Q1, underpinned by solid top-line performance and stable costs. On slide 16, we look at the workforce evolution. Since the end of 2024, the average headcount rose to 120,000, in line with higher FTEs supporting our 2025 target and consistent with business growth.

This figure includes approximately 1,200 additional temporary workers engaged during the Q4 2024 peak period, when we managed significantly higher volumes compared to the previous year. More importantly, the profitability per FTE continued to improve, with the value added per FTE growing by 4%, EUR 87,000. HR costs per FTE are up 1% to EUR 47,800, as a result of variable compensation. Moving to group HR costs on slide seventeen. In Q1, ordinary HR costs increased by 3% to slightly over EUR 1.4 billion, due to higher FTEs and variable compensation, as already mentioned. In the quarter, ordinary HR costs on revenue are slightly down to 41%. Moving to slide eighteen, non-HR costs increased by EUR 62 million year-on-year, mainly driven by EUR 36 million of additional variable cost, reflecting higher business volumes, while fixed costs decreased by EUR 3 million.

NII are up EUR 29 million, in line with the increase in investments driving our continuous transformation. In general, our focus on cost and CapEx discipline across all divisions remains razor-sharp, and protecting the bottom-line profitability as well as the cash flow remains our top priority. Thank you for your time. Let me hand over to Matteo for a wrap-up.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Camillo. In our strategy update in February, we outline 2025 targets and confirm our strong commitment to generate sustainable profitability growth and deliver compelling shareholders' remuneration. We are off to a solid start this year across the board, with our record performance in the first quarter, and look forward to delivering strong results in 2025 and beyond. We continue to build upon strong momentum with a clear commitment to generate long-term value for our stakeholders.

Our group maintains a robust balance sheet, supporting our upgraded dividend policy based on a 70% payout ratio, implying a 2024 dividend balance of EUR 0.75 per share, equivalent to around EUR 970 million to be paid at the end of June. Our recent acquisition of a significant stake in TIM underscores our commitment to a long-term industrial shareholder focus on driving value creation and supporting the consolidation of the Italian telecommunication market. Over time, we expect to generate strong synergies with this transaction, and we have already signed an MoU for a new MVNO contract, which will be active from January next year. In summary, we're focused on disciplined execution. This record quarter is the first step in delivering the targets we have laid out, and that's all supported by a sustainable and highly diversified business model, which allows us to deliver predictable earnings growth.

Finally, I want to thank again our dedicated employees, whose hard work, commitment, and professionalism are key to the strong results that we continue to achieve. Thank you also to you for listening, and Giuseppe, over to you for the Q&A.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Matteo. We are ready to start our Q&A session. Just as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one, and to remove yourself from the question queue, please press star two. Finally, I would ask you to please limit yourself to two questions. The first question we have today is from Farooq Hanif at J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead, Farooq.

Farooq Hanif
Head of European Insurance Equity Research, JPMorgan

Hi, thanks very much. My first question is around what you can tell us now about potential areas of synergy with TIM. What are your plans for where you think you can create value to that shareholding? And my second question is if you could elaborate on the EU payment regulation change, what that means, are there any ongoing effects, if you can talk about that. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Okay. I will take the first one and get Camillo ready. Farooq, thank you for the second question. The first synergy is the one we are very close to formalize. We have an MoU already signed with TIM with respect to the roaming service that our 5 million clients of PosteMobile will benefit from next year from TIM, then I think this is an acquisition that technically is not even finalized because we are, for the second tranche, waiting for the final sign-off from the antitrust Italian authorities, so it's in the making, but additional synergies that we see, and this is going to be a very important, I think, a very positive journey, but one should not expect to see basically results of this synergy program on both sides of the fence, so also on the TIM side every month or even every quarter.

By the end of the year, there will be synergies, and the second item that we can put on the table today is on the distribution of some of the Poste services through the network of TIM with a white label concept and format. So this would be TIM label products powered by Poste Italiane, and that would be, for us, an additional channel of distribution, and for TIM, an additional source of distribution revenues and product they can offer to their clients. And there will be probably traffic in the opposite direction in terms of our network distributing some of the TIM products over time. So I think we're working very well with the company at the moment, and we are exploring every possible opportunity. And the more we work, the more we see in terms of opportunities, but it will take a bit of execution time, Farooq.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Yes, and with respect to the second question, there was a change in the EU law on fees applied to SEPA credit transfers, whereby instant payments had to be made equal in terms of cost to normal credit transfers. That is something that we had in our budget, so no surprise here. In terms of impact on the quarter, the net impact was around EUR 7 million, as we had probably a slightly higher number in terms of fee reduction, but we had greater volumes, with the net impact being EUR 7 million. But it's something that we did expect and is part of our budget.

Farooq Hanif
Head of European Insurance Equity Research, JPMorgan

Thank you very much.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you. Next question is from Gianluca Ferrari, Mediobanca. Hi, Gianluca.

Gianluca Ferrari
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, hi, good afternoon, everyone. Back a bit from Farooq's question on TIM. Out of the EUR 3.5 billion COGS, how much is potentially addressable or workable together with TIM in terms of ICT expenses you are having today and could be better managed thanks to the skills of TIM? And linked also to the TIM argument, I was wondering if you can share with us the cost of the MVNO contract you signed with them.

Second and final question is on the 7% increase in parcels. If I recall properly, you gave us a guidance for 2025 of EUR 1.8 billion, which means a +10% to +16%, depending if we take the upper end or the lower end of the 1.8. So I was wondering if the plus 7 is still enough to meet the 1.8 guidance for full year, or we should expect something lower given the level of Q1? Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Okay, thank you, Gianluca. I will take the first one and let Camillo be ready for the second one. The MVNO contract, we're not in the position yet to disclose the amount, so that's an easy answer. On synergies on the cost side, you referred to our ICT. I think it's a broader topic that will take time because the more we disclose each other our cost on one side and revenue projection on some of these items, if we stay within the technology or, for example, in the cloud space, the more I think we will have opportunities to increase shareholders' value for both companies. But that's not the one single item we are looking at at the moment, so I'm not in the position again to give you a specific figure on ICT expenses reduction on the basis of their release.

Gianluca Ferrari
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Yeah, with respect to the second question, first of all, we absolutely reconfirm the number. I'll remind you of the number as a EUR 100 million interval, as you rightly pointed out. I also made a comment on my script that April was a very strong month in terms of reporting double-digit growth in April. So comfortable with that. Giving a bit more granularity on what has happened in the first three months of the year, we have performed well in terms of market share, both in terms of B2C, which remained stable at high levels, and we grew market share in B2B. Probably what has happened in the first three months of the year is that the market overall was likely softer vis-à-vis what we expected. The other point I'd like to make is that, obviously, top-line growth drives profitability and drives EBIT.

What we did in the last three months is that we have materially increased the percentage of parcels that have been delivered to our PUDOs, which is a much more cost-efficient way of delivering the parcels. So that has helped us also to protect profitability of the business, if not to increase it, as we've been much more efficient the way these parcels have actually been delivered. So just to say that not only we absolutely reconfirm top-line, but we also very strongly reconfirm EBIT guidance.

Gianluca Ferrari
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Grazie.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Yeah, and if I may add, Gianluca, there is certainly a top-line element, which correctly you're focusing on, but we have started focusing already a few quarters ago on profitability in the space that will clearly come from more volumes and synergies and cost efficiencies, but have a lot to do with, as Camillo said, using more third-party networks and that help us reducing our cost of delivery for the last mile. It has to do with the re-engineering of our real estate logistic footprint, which is evolving rapidly versus a parcel-driven footprint from a mail originally driven network. And last item to drive margin growth in the space is going up the value chain. So now that we have reached a leadership in B2C, going into the B2B, going into warehousing, going into contract logistics, which is what we started as an exercise a couple of years ago.

So I think, hopefully, over time, this is a long journey, and we have all learned together that logistics is not a space where you move the needle and the market share rapidly quarter after quarter. You need to keep pushing and striving to the increase of margin and revenues over a relatively medium-term time horizon. But there is the commitment, there is the balance sheet, there is the focus, and we're positive that we're on the right track.

Gianluca Ferrari
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Gianluca. Next question is from Giovanni Razzoli at Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon to everybody. The question is on the revenues in the mail. You mentioned that there has been, in this quarter, a favorable mixed effect. So compared with the past, there is not only an increase in tariff, but also you mentioned a mixed effect. And then you also mentioned that there was an increase in the recorded mail pricing. Is this favorable mixed effect referring to that, or is this something different? And do you think that increasing the value-added services on the traditional mail may help to compensate in part the decline in the volumes? Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

I think already Camillo mentioned the fact that after one year of surprise, because you remember last year we budgeted a decrease in mail revenues and we recorded an increase, we finally got a normal quarter, which is revenue decline in mail. We're back to the non-normal in Q2 to date, including the first week of May, where we see revenue going back to positive ground, which is maybe a sort of an overshooting or rebalancing effect of what we've seen in Q1, possibly to some extent. Certainly, the trend, the long-term trend is against us, Giovanni, there's no doubt and value-added, to your question, services, yes, will help us to some extent, but will not stop the long-term trend that mail will experience over time.

So we should not be too optimistic in the medium term of not seeing the decline in revenues, because when we say value-added products, we're talking about registered mail, which is already today relatively well priced in Italy. Little room to increase pricing on registered mail. More room, as Camillo anticipated, on universal service products that is also kicking in in Q2 and is supporting the positive signs that we're seeing in mail in Q2.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Camillo, you want to add something?

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Sorry, I was with the mic out. The deals with the pricing will give us around EUR 25 million of incremental revenues from the 1st of April, that we are continuing our systematic repricing actions on the rest of the market. The total impact of those actions to translate around EUR 50 million revenues incremental in 2025.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Revenues incremental in terms of pricing effect?

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Yes, the benefits.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Obviously, from the pricing effect, and obviously, we will have the volume effect against us, yeah, just to be clear.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Yes.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Okay. Next question is from Iain Pearce at BNP Paribas. Please go ahead, Iain.

Iain Pearce
Executive Director of Insurance Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Hi, afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one was just on the payments revenues. If I've understood this correctly, I think you said that April revenues have accelerated quite strongly, but the impact from the EU law change was EUR 7 million, which wouldn't imply that that falling out would be a big change. So just trying to, if you can give us a bit more detail on what's happened with the payment revenues post Q1 and the sort of the impact from the EU law change going forward, that would be very useful. And the second question is just on the NII. Clearly, a very strong number again on that line. If you could just talk to us about the sustainability of that number, if that number benefited at all from any one-offs, that would be useful. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Ian. I think I'll let Camillo answer on both questions. I think the second one is one we anticipated, and obviously, it's a key question, I believe, in the quarter we just reported. Please, Camillo.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Yeah, so with respect to the, again, going back to payments, I mean, the first thing I'd like to, again, put out very clearly is that the first quarter of this year, compared to the first quarter of last year, had some material differences. First of all, because Easter in 2024 was in March and this year was in April. And the second point is that Q1 2024 was a leap year, the 29th of February. So there was an impact on the calendar and there was an impact as far as festivities are concerned. So that's in terms of the calendar. The second point was around the EU change in law, which was already, as I said, fully budgeted and had an impact of around EUR 7 million in the first quarter.

It will continue to have an impact on the rest of the year. However, as per the point I made before, which is that there has been a change of seasonality, the first months of the second quarter, every April, has gone strongly, and the way we measure that is in terms of transaction value, so transaction value managed by Postepay in the first three months of the year was growing 6% compared to Q1 2024. If you were to add to that three months, an additional month, i.e., April, the increase from 6% would go to 8.4%, which implies a double-digit growth in the single months of April, so that's on payments. With respect to NII, you'll remember that on the 21st of February, we presented the numbers and we gave an indication of what we call investment portfolio return on our BTP portfolio of EUR 2.6 billion.

That was a combination of NII plus capital gains. We did have a strong first quarter in terms of NII. However, as you know, 30% of our portfolio is at variable rates. So we would expect a non-proportional level of NII throughout the year, and we would like to reconfirm the level that we gave at the beginning in February, which was EUR 2.6 billion of total portfolio return for 2025.

Iain Pearce
Executive Director of Insurance Equity Research, BNP Paribas

That's very clear. Thank you.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Okay. Next question comes from Tommaso Nieddu, Kepler Cheuvreux. Tommaso, please go ahead.

Tommaso Nieddu
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple. The first one is on your guidance and payout policy. I understand that in 2025, the inclusion of TIM's pro quota profits shouldn't have a significant impact, but I was wondering, should we consider the 70% payout on the profits with or without TIM's contribution, and same for net income? And the second question is still on the stake acquisition of TIM and is on the saving shares of TIM. Can you please give us a comment on that? Are you happy with the current structure?

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Sorry, Tommaso, we got the first question. Can you repeat the second one, please? Sorry.

Tommaso Nieddu
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah, yeah, yes. The second question is on the stake in TIM. So if you can give us some comments on that and if you are happy with the current structure of TIM.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

No, I mean, to be entirely honest, Tommaso, thank you, first of all, for your questions, but we legally were not even shareholders at the moment. So I think it's very premature to anticipate comments for sure on the capital structure of TIM. And at this point in time, let's wait for our next results announcement, also on your first question on the payout, which is not I wouldn't be worried, but at this point, we prefer not to comment. I'm sorry about that, and thank you again for your questions.

Tommaso Nieddu
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Got it. Thanks.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Next on the list is Andrea Lisi from Equita. Please go ahead, Andrea.

Andrea Lisi
Equity Analyst, Equita

Thank you for taking my question. The first one is on the CSM release. If you think that the release ratio we have seen in this quarter is a sustainable level and can be applied also going on, and in case, what are your expectations there? And the second question is on the outflows in terms of postal savings, which actions are being in place and which trends are you expecting for the coming quarter? Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Okay. We will do the reverse. Thank you, Andrea. This time around, I will answer the second question and then let Camillo answer the first one. On postal savings, the year-end is a negative net collection at savings. We are anticipating, together with CDP, initiatives on products mainly. And we are confident that, just like last year, we will manage to achieve our planned net funding targets, even though clearly Q1 has been a relatively heavy one, but we are not yet considering a problem. Okay? Please, Camillo.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Yeah, with respect to CSM, I mean, I'll answer it sort of indirectly, saying that we have not provided guidance on CSM, but we have provided guidance on revenues and on EBIT for the division Poste Vita. We believe that those numbers that we have put forward, really, two months and a half ago, are still there. And obviously, an important part of the revenues of Poste Vita to the tune of EUR 1.5 billion are made up by CSM release. So that's the input we can say at this point, and we reconfirm those numbers. I can also go a step forward, saying that we believe that, based on what we know now, that around 3.5% growth of the CSM should be sustainable for the rest of the year.

No, just to complete, I think the question was on the percentage release. The percentage release, as you know, depends on the duration of the portfolio, and this will depend also on the evolution of market interest rates. So we cannot say if this is exactly the level you will see in the future, but on average, if you look at the number of this quarter and the last few quarters of 2024, this is the level you should expect for the rest of the year. And Andrea, just to supplement on my first answer, looking at our internal projections for year-end, we are slightly ahead of plan. So that makes us comfortable to be able to reach the plan by year-end.

Andrea Lisi
Equity Analyst, Equita

Clear. Thank you.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Okay. The next question is from Manuela Meroni, Intesa Sanpaolo. Hi, Manuela.

Manuela Meroni
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Yes, good afternoon. A couple of questions remaining. The first one is on the net inflow on deposits. They have been quite strong in this quarter. For sure, they are benefiting from the public administration, but also the corporate customers increased in terms of deposits. So I'm wondering if there is a specific trend that you want to highlight there. And the second question is on the consumer loan distribution. It has been a quite strong quarter. I'm wondering if you have changed something in your approach there, if this result is recurrent or it's just, let's say, a matter of pricing.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Camillo, you want to take both questions?

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Yes. So I'll start from the second. The performance of the book of consumer loans is driven by volume, but also driven by interest rates, which we discount the underlying product and we book our fees. Those rates have been going down, so those helped us to support the performance. I think that we had for the year a budget of 0.2 for the division. I think we, sorry, 0.2, we confirmed that. With respect to the net flows on cash, obviously, they have been doing well. There is a bit more volatility as usual with public administration and corporates, but the performance is in line with our expectations.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

The first question was net inflows in deposits.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Yes.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Next question is from Daniel Wilson of Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, Daniel, please.

Daniel Wilson
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple of questions on Postepay. First question around the stock of the prepaid cards. I understand that this stock doesn't grow kind of linearly, but you've seen quite a large drop this quarter in the stock. Admittedly, the transaction value has come up a bit to counter that, but I'm just wondering if you can comment on that. And then second question is on energy. Clearly, the business is growing quite well, and you're growing customers quite well and everything, but it also seems that the operating revenue you're getting per customer is increasing. So I'm wondering if you have any comments on the evolution of that over time. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

So with respect to the first question, Daniel, it is true that we had a reduction in cards in the Postepay Standard, but that has to do with cards which were sponsored by the government in terms of cash distributed for inclusion purposes to the Italian cities.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

COVID-related.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

COVID-related, yes. And as these extraordinary measures of the government have been reduced, the usage of those cards has been, in a way, reduced accordingly to the tune of around 1.2 million cards. That is the estimate of the government-related cards. So nothing strange there. In fact, we continue to see strong performance on our staple key product, which is the Postepay Evolution card, which continues to grow. It grew by 400,000 units this year compared to the equivalent period in Q1 2024. With respect to energy, I think, yes, we have had encouraging performance. The revenue per customer is also driven by the cost of the underlying product, and we have been in a more benign environment in that sense. So we are also positive for the rest of the year on the energy, also in light of the supply agreements we have in place.

Daniel Wilson
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Thank you.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Okay. Next question is from Michael Huttner, Berenberg. Michael, please go ahead.

Michael Huttner
Insurance Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Thank you very much. I had two questions, both on insurance, so both kind of seeing the very strong growth in volumes, both on the savings side and the protection, and I just wondered if you can speak a little bit about that. It feels that we're running a little bit ahead of budget, and I'd like to understand maybe what's driving this as well. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Please, Camillo.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

It was a good quarter for insurance. It was also a good quarter compared to last year, where we had materially less inflows. In the first quarter of 2024, we had intercepted some inflows on the business through BancoPosta. And as you may recall, we have changed our portfolio to address more flows going to Poste Vita, and that's exactly what we have done. We have also benefited from a greater release of CSM driving top line. That's something we addressed in the previous questions. What I didn't comment on, and I'm going to comment more now, is that we had also an equally good performance also on what we call P&C, where, yes, we had an increase of around EUR 60 million in terms of premiums.

The standout performance in that category was certainly CPI products, which grew to the tune of 24% compared to the first quarter of 2024. That has to do with the products we sell directly, but also to the products we sell to our majority-owned subsidiary Net Group that had a very strong performance quarter on quarter.

Michael Huttner
Insurance Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Just to understand, are these lovely trends sustainable, do you think?

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

They're certainly in line with our budget that aspires to have somewhere between EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 1.2 billion of premia for 2025. Yes.

Michael Huttner
Insurance Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Yeah, I think, if I may add, thank you, Michael. There is a very focused ongoing effort in the company on what you can call smart cross-selling. So basically, not only we're trying to embed CPI protection contracts into life, which is obviously a natural way of doing embedded cross-selling within the insurance segment, but there is also an ongoing effort to drive clients from one product to the next best product for that client, using all the data we have on our clients and using, obviously, our increasing weight of digital channels, where proposing the next best product, maybe with a discount, is the easy proposition to put in place. But more importantly, for our footprint, this is taking place more and more also in the post office.

So allowing our teller people and our consultants, colleagues, to have a clear picture of the client profile, the product needed, and the best offer that we can do to that client on the next best product to be offered. And this, I think, will be one of the key efforts that we're putting in place that will impact all segments and that, obviously, will increase our operating leverage of the company and benefiting our bottom line.

Michael Huttner
Insurance Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Giuseppe Esposito
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Okay. There are no further questions. Thank you all very much for joining us today.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO, Poste Italiane

Thank you, everyone.

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