Poste Italiane S.p.A. (BIT:PST)
Italy flag Italy · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
22.23
-0.06 (-0.27%)
Apr 27, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Mar 30, 2023

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us today. I'm Massimo Nerici, Investor Relations. On behalf of Poste Italiane's management team, it is my pleasure to welcome you to our full year 2022 results and 2023 strategy update. Today, we have a big agenda, as you can see on the screen. I apologize in advance for the inconvenience on the heavy disco anticipated. After a short video highlighting Poste Italiane's achievements since 2017, we will start with the strategic update from our CEO and General Manager, Matteo Del Fante. Our CFO, Camillo Greco, will take you through the key financials. We will also hear from Andrea Novelli, Poste Vita CEO, for a focus on insurance. You will then have the opportunity to ask questions after Matteo's closing remarks, either via phone or through our webcast platform.

Before we start, I must ask you to read the disclaimer on screen, which is also included in the presentation pack on our website, where you can also find a separate presentation covering Q4 and full year 2022 results. Now let's watch a 6-minute video summing up a 6-year transformational journey.

Speaker 11

As an iconic Italian brand, Poste Italiane has long been a familiar institution in Italy. As one of the country's largest distribution networks with over 12,000 branches, Poste Italiane plays a significant role in communities in Italy, bringing services to towns, villages, cities across the nation. Whether sending a parcel, taking out cash, investing, protecting your home or buying electricity and gas, for more than 160 years, we evolved continuously to meet society's needs. Our omnichannel approach responds to a rapidly changing market by leveraging technological innovation behind an extensive physical network. 2022 was another year of solid performance. Revenues reached EUR 11.9 billion. Operating profit hit a record EUR 2.2 billion, more than doubling to EUR 1.1 billion in 2017.

The dividend per share also set an all-time record at EUR 0.65, one and a half times the 2017 value. Total financial assets reached EUR 562 billion, up 10% since 2017. M&A activity designed to accelerate the implementation of the group's business strategies. LIS Holding, a leading PayTech champion and the largest acquisition in Poste's history, boosts our group's omnichannel strategy. Net Insurance, potentially further accelerating growth and profitability in the protection business. Furthermore, Italian market leader in healthcare logistics and medical data management. The results of the group's core businesses are outstanding. Mail, Parcel, Transition from mail delivery to a parcel business is further evolving into a fully-fledged logistics operator. In 2022, 240 million parcels were delivered, more than double those delivered in 2017.

The industrial transformation has been significant across the entire logistics value chain. Regarding the financial services business, we have refined our offering by leveraging technology. As a result, today we are able to meet all of our customers' financial needs, from savings and investments to loans and insurance, in a way that is most convenient for them, be it in a post office, by app, digital channels or Punto Poste network. Revenues are up 3.9% year-over-year to EUR 5.8 billion in 2022. We are leaders in insurance services with a comprehensive and sustainable product portfolio that bridges the Italian under-insurance divide. Revenues are up 15.7% to EUR 2.2 billion in 2022, and up 48% compared to 2017. With our insurance offering, we have enabled clients to diversify their portfolios.

The payments and mobile business is the gateway to Poste Italiane's ecosystem and at the core of the group's omnichannel strategy. To date, we have issued 68.9 million cards, and card transactions have increased by 15% since 2021, reaching 2.3 billion. A quarter of these are e-commerce related, with a 15% growth since 2021. Revenues are EUR 1.1 billion, 15% higher than in 2017. Poste Energia, successfully launched in 2022, enters the retail utility market in Italy with more than 150,000 contracts signed in less than a year. The electricity offer is 100% green, and gas offer is CO₂ compensated through investment in environmental sustainability projects in India, Indonesia and Brazil. These results confirm our strategic pillar role for the country.

The company's operations have a significant positive impact on Italy's GDP. Generating overall value of more than EUR 62 billion, accumulated impact on GDC from 2018 to 2022. Sustainability and innovation are the pillars of Poste Italiane strategic business plan. Our value creating process is fully integrated into ESG objectives, which Poste has been recognized for several years. 2022 will be another year of consistent delivery. Since 2017, we are undertaking a journey of transformation, innovation, renewal, and digitalization with an outstanding growth trajectory. Our network is a key part of the physical infrastructure that Italy's digital economy will require.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome. It is a privilege to be talking to you and summarizing a great set of results today. Our 2022 EBIT at EUR 2.2 billion is a record high, more than doubling the 2017 level of EUR 1.1 billion, where we started our journey and up 24% compared to last year. The impressive progression is fully supported by positive underlying contribution from all businesses. Confident of our consistent delivery since 2017, today, we can confirm our 2023 growth path. Our targets have always been achieved in different market conditions, highlighting the validity of our strategic choices and tactical cost management. Let me also say that the business trends that we're seeing in Q1 this year are increasing visibility on our 2023 guidance.

As promised, we have stabilized the solvency ratio volatility supported by healthy capital generation. From 2017 to the end of 2023, we will have distributed almost EUR 5 billion of dividends to our shareholders. In particular, we're proposing to increase the dividend to EUR 0.65 per share in 2022, setting an all-time record and 50% higher than 2017. The new 2022 DPS is up 10% year-over-year, and we're targeting EUR 0.71 in 2023, corresponding to an average payout of almost 60% between 2022 and 2023. With this in mind, we have drawn a visible baseline for the new strategic plan we will be presenting later this year.

On slide 7, let's go back to February 2018, when we started our transformation journey. At the time, with the first plan since the 2017 listing of Poste Italiane, we were targeting a significant EBIT improvement, up from EUR 1.1 billion in 2017 to EUR 1.8 billion in 2022. As we always told the market, we say what we do and we do what we say. Fast-forward 6 year to today on slide 8, you can now witness the success of our transformation and a different organization. A platform company which has been more than double in profitability with an EBIT at EUR 2.3 billion in 2022. This is a combination of a significant increase in the quality and amount of revenues and continuous cost discipline.

All of this has been achieved in a challenging environment of pandemic, market, and energy crisis. As you can see, our strategy to balance tightly control costs with investment for growth paid off, and it will allow us to share achievement with all stakeholders. Moving to slide 9. Since 2017, we have worked on transforming Poste from a traditional logistic operator into a category omnichannel platform company. We are an integrated distribution platform, meeting daily needs of almost 35 million Italians. Digitalization, customer experience enhancement, and improvement in workforce efficiency are the cornerstone of our transformation strategy. In Mail, Parcel, and Distribution, we transition from a delivery company into a parcel business to then starting to become a fully fledged logistic operator. Network restructuring, modernization of existing infrastructure, and development of new state-of-the-art logistics hubs were the key enablers.

We tap into the expanding e-commerce market, focusing on the shopper needs by building an extensive pickup and drop-off networks and invested in parcel sorting automation. In financial services, we have redefined our commercial offer to meet all our client needs, from lending, saving, investments, and insurance. The payment business, The Poste ecosystem remains at the core of our group omni-channel strategy, with a compelling offer meeting daily customer needs. We built this segment from scratch, and we have doubled its EBIT. Our continued focus on investment in the digital payment sector enable us to capture value from e-commerce market growth. Let me just remind you that this business didn't exist six years ago, yet today it has a turnover of EUR 1.3 billion.

After a successful integrated telco offer, we have completed our product portfolio by launching a retail gas and electricity business offer, which in 4 months achieved more than 150,000 contracts. We're on track to exceed 300,000 contracts by year-end. In insurance services, we built a fully fledged and resilient company. Our life offer was broadened to include multi-class products. We have integrated a comprehensive P&C insurance offer in our investment proposition. On slide 10, we see a set of strategic KPIs which represent the transformation we've been talking about. On slide 11, you see how we have repositioned our profitability towards growing markets and recurring revenues. A revolution has taken place, really.

In the last six years, we managed events that were beyond our control, such as the pandemic, the war, the market adjustment, and the energy crisis, we remained focused on the things we could control. The journey we have made is not just one of quantity, let me say, is also quality. We identified businesses with structurally growing trend, which allow us to more than compensate the declining trends in others. As a result, recurring revenues now represent more than 50% of the total, increasing 8% from 2017. On slide 12, our M&A activity has been designed to accelerate the implementation of the group business strategy. The approach has been that the business unit identify key partners to enrich our core competencies in order to drive and accelerate growth.

In this slide, we sum up the key acquisitions covering all our business units, as well as the technology-enabled layer. As an example, in payments, we acquired LIS, a PayTech champion, to boost our group omni-channel strategy, which will enable a significant evolution of our service model. Moving to slide 13, we show the evolution of our service model, becoming truly omni-channel. This transformation has been enabled by our state-of-the-art IP platform. The 2.8 billion yearly transactions which we analyze through data mining are boosted by the key capability we show on the right of the chart. We have integrated over 600 API partners, handling 36% of customer interactions through AI, and 86% of our new initiatives are cloud-based. Leveraging on more than 20 million daily interactions across our platform, we have extended the scope of the engagement of our customers.

Historically, each channel was in charge of engagement as well as transactions and sales. We see this in the blue arrows in the chart. We have extended our engagement across the distribution channels. For example, the digital or the Punto Poste customer engagement can be completed with transactions and sales in our post office, as you can see from the yellow arrows. All this happens with the aim of a seamless customer experience, and there is even more to come on this space. Thank you. Moving to slide 14, I would like to provide you with some further impressive figures on our omni-channel platform evolution. We've built an ecosystem which leverages on our customer base, even more digitalized and active, both on physical channels and new channels, with a satisfying experience.

As you can see now, 20% of total transactions are digital, 5 times our 2017 penetration. Our clients indeed are becoming more digital. 60 million Italians use our digital properties, compared to 12 million just a couple of years ago. Nearly 26 million Italians choose us as their official digital identity provider. That's almost half of the whole Italian population. We're very proud to be contributing so much to the digitalization of the country. At the same time, customer satisfaction grew 8 percentage points, from 22 in 2017 to 30 in 2022, with our apps rating increasing to 4.6 out of 5. Moving to slide 15, please. People are the key transformation driver, and I'm proud that our corporate culture is vibrant and modern. Here we are after 5 years.

Of course, we're all getting older, obviously, but our people are two years younger. In five years, in fact, the average age of our employees has fallen from almost 50 to under 48 years. More importantly, we have almost doubled the number of employees with a university degree. Our people are the key enabler of our transformation program, which supports a diverse, equal and inclusive culture that promotes the commitment of employees and unleashes their potential. We have consistently invested in recruitment, training, and development, as well as insourcing some activities in order to upskill and reskill our existing workforce with the right capabilities and behaviors to support the delivery of our strategic ambitions. Moving to slide 16, we are progressing on our green strategy.

We have reduced our CO2 emissions in line with our midterm target of -30% total CO2 emissions by 2025, and carbon neutrality by 2030. Just a couple of examples. At the end of December, the number of low emission Postini vehicles was around 23,000. The development of our Punto Poste network has allowed us not only to provide more flexible parcel pickup and drop-off solutions, but also to reduce the number of km traveled by almost 500,000. The real estate management program is also supporting our CO2 reduction plan, with around 1,600 buildings included in energy optimization projects and 31,000 square meters of solar panel installed since the beginning of the year.

The Polis project, which is part of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan related to the NextGenerationEU program, will provide a further contribution to the execution of our green transition strategy. Shortly, 200 upgraded post offices will be open to the public. Let's now look ahead. On our 2023 strategy, update in the context of the new, of a couple of slides. On slide 18, we're providing a new 2023 guidance, which is now targeting an EBIT of EUR 2.5 billion, confirming our steady growth path, successfully managing inflation headwinds. We are confident in our ability to deliver healthy profitability, and as such, we have increased the dividend for 2022 and 2023. Later in the year, with the new strategic plan and medium term dividend policy, we will also be revealed.

Revenues will continue to steadily increase, excluding the impact of the new IFRS 17 accounting standard on insurance services, but this will only impact reported revenues, while EBIT will not be affected. Camillo will go deeper into detail to discuss the regional growth drivers. Moving to slide 19. We are aware of the challenges ahead, but we have a proven track record to adapt to a changing environment, and we have a clear visibility on 2023 targets. As we enter 2023 with a subdued economic growth, we will leverage on secular trends rather than cyclical ones, taking advantage of growing markets. This is the case of our parcel, payments and insurance businesses, which are all structurally underpenetrated compared to European averages.

Our clients' focus is on non-discretionary spending for daily needs, which is shielding us from the negative impact of the potential economic slowdown. The Polis initiative previously mentioned will contribute to our business diversification. The integration of public administration services will enable cross-selling opportunities, as well as support our service model transformation in the future. Given the inflationary backdrop, we have protected the business with several tactical moves, which give us a full visibility on cost base evolution into 2023. Our corporate energy costs are in fact now mostly hedged for the whole year. The labor agreement will be in place until December this year. Our track record in cost management keeps us in good shape. Finally, we are well guarded from continuous market volatility. In particular, we have stabilized our Solvency II ratio.

Our loyal customer base rewards us with positive net inflows. For example, since January this year, we have already registered almost EUR 2 billion insurance might being closed with the best in market 4% lapse rate. We benefit from a fortress balance sheet and ample liquidity, with a liability coverage ratio at 359% in financial services and a structurally prudent asset and liability management, protecting us from the current market volatility. It is not by chance that during the last 20 years, we've been experiencing a steady increase of our deposit base in any adverse environment, as we are seen as a safe harbor for Italian retail investors. On slide 20, let's focus on new channels, which now account for 69% of total interactions, representing a great value generation potential for transactions, and more importantly, for revenues.

Moving forward, it is also evident how the share of transactions such as Postepay or Sica, perhaps currently managed on our new channels, has been growing, reaching 50% in 2022, mainly thanks to the new Poste networks. Finally, we see new channels generating 22% of 2022 relevant revenues, increasing 3 times versus 2017. As you can see on slide 21, the relevance of our ESG path has been recognized. Since 2017, we've been included in key ESG indices and ratings, and we've been more than doubling our value of our brand. The several awards received are just the icing on the cake. With Polis, Poste Italiane has confirmed its mission as a strategic pillar for Italy, promoting the social cohesion of local communities, and will become a new way of accessing public administration services.

Around 7,000 post offices located in small municipalities will be transformed into digital and physical hubs, providing a wide range of public administration services, simplifying lives of Italians. At the same time, post offices will be renovated, supporting Italy's transition towards a low carbon economy. In the next couple of slides, we will review the key divisional messages. On slide 23, we have a summary of expected growth drivers for each division, which we are going to discuss in the following slides, coupled with a clear visibility of the cost base for 2023. What we have done to reduce the Solvency II ratio volatility will allow us to increase Poste Vita remittances to the parent to up to 75% from 2023. I hope that you appreciate the consistent improvement of steady and sustainable cash flow generation across all business units.

Let's look in more detail on the divisional drivers of 2023. Let's start with Mail Parcel on slide 24. We have built an excellence in our B2C businesses, on which we are leveraging to develop a more diversified parcel business. At the same time, we are looking beyond, developing specific activities to become a fully-fledged logistics operator. We expect the key growth drivers of 2023 for this business to rely on B2C volumes with a particular traction from our PUDOS network, which we expect will represent 15% of the B2C volumes from only 5% in 2020. In a market where volumes can be redirected to competitors very quickly, we have successfully reached long-term agreements with key partners, securing visibility on 40% of revenues in 2023.

Finally, we expect our logistics revenues to increase by 50% this year, including warehousing, end-to-end logistic, and contribution from specialized sectors such as health logistics. Moving to slide 25, it is great to flag the partnership with Amazon on one side and DHL on the other. We have gained further visibility from the new Amazon contract for the next 5 years, a key partner also for other areas of the group. In fact, let me remind you that Postepay channels 30% of transactions on the Amazon Marketplace, and that we are an extensive user of cloud services by AWS. At the beginning of March, we signed a strategic international agreement for parcel delivery with DHL.

Deutsche Post DHL is an ideal partner to best connect our customers to international markets with inbound and outbound delivery options, as well as rollout of an advanced automated locker network. Starting from scratch, we are laying an important setting stone into the high margin outbound international parcel market. Moving to slide 26, please, on financial services with a focus on postal savings. Thanks to the recently agreed revamp offer, we have gained visibility on higher distribution fees expected at EUR 1.7 billion in 2023. Since early 2022, the interest rate environment has really changed. This has led to an increased redemption rate from postal savings holders. Together with CDP, we are launching new offers, putting postal savings back at the core of our commercial activities. These products are not exposed to market fluctuations and offer safe and competitive returns to retail investors.

Remember that we do not bear the remuneration recognized to customers in our balance sheet because we act as distributor of postal savings products on behalf of CDP. As an example, since the end of 2022, we launched a new postal trading offer at 3% remuneration dedicated to new liquidity, successfully boosting new customer liquidity flows, reaching EUR 1.8 billion as of today. On slide 27, you can see how since the launch of the payment and mobile business unit 5 years ago, a remarkable growth has been achieved, we expect this to continue into 2023. The business captures most of the cross-selling opportunity arising daily during customer interaction. It is the one-stop shop for daily needs of Italians, further boosted now by the LIS Punto Poste acquisition.

This success has been built also leveraging on a rapid increase of transactions, an impressive growth of over 30% in card transaction value to EUR 71 billion since 2018, with this trend expected to continue into 2023 to over EUR 81 billion. To complete our product range, we launch a new gas and energy retail offer. We have already reached over 150,000 contracts, paving the way to achieving a target of more than 300,000 contracts in 2023. Business setup costs in 2023 will result in over EUR 50 million negative EBIT, fully offset by the strong growth of the overall segment. Our role to implement is a low risk business model. Our energy business we organize in monthly rates, allowing us to match demand and supply without being exposed to volatile market price fluctuations. On slide 28, insurance, we have dedicated focus by Andrea Novelli, group CEO.

Let me only highlight that in 2023, the life business will continue to drive a steady increase in the profitability of profit broadly. We'll also be accelerating our protection business, leveraging on our life customer base as well as the proposed life insurance acquisition. Andrea will also discuss the IFRS 17 accounting changes in place since January 1, that will have a neutral to positive impact on our P&L. At the same time, we are recognizing a significant amount of contractual service margin, CSM, which reflects the value of our in-force business, giving us visibility on a sustainable profitability stream going forward. Finally, we're bridging the gap towards internal model implementation with EUR 1 billion gross Mass Lapse insurance, with the benefit of 30 percentage points of solvency, better levering our lab rate service exposure.

As a result of a more stable solvency ratio, we are confident in increasing the remittal rate from Poste Vita to the parent company to up to 75%, starting from 2023. Okay. That's it from me for the time being. Let me hand over to Camillo Greco, our group CFO. Over to you, Camillo.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Matteo. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on slide number 30. As you can see from the chart, we have overachieved all our key targets for 2022. Looking forward, we are guiding 2023 revenues towards EUR 11.9 billion, with a major EBIT step up to EUR 2.5 billion. Our healthy profitability gives us the confidence to propose an EPS of EUR 0.65 in 2022 and EUR 0.71 in 2023. Turning to slide number 31.

As we are working on a new plan, we have carried out a comprehensive assessment of key moving parts. In this way, we have a clean sheet to draft for the future. 2022 baseline EBIT is more representative of our expected trajectory for 2023 and beyond. More in detail, we have recognized lower commercial incentives and early retirement charges compared to original plan. We also received EUR 20 million in energy subsidies, which we adjust for to assess energy costs in 2023. Positive market effect for inflation linked bonds supported the insurance investment margin, coupled with the release of other reserves and IFRS 17 implementation. This resulted in a positive benefit of EUR 167 million. The net effect of other provisions related to many several single items resulted in a negative impact on EBIT for EUR 41 million.

Finally, we took a prudent approach for tax credits, where the regulatory framework is still evolving. On the back of independent analysis, we took a conservative stance with a one-off non-cash provision of EUR 320 million to cover the risk of non-dividend outstanding, increasing visibility going forward. The baseline EBIT at corporate center level for 2022 is equal to EUR 2.36 million, around EUR 70 million above reported EBIT and ahead of the guidance communicated in Q3. On slide number 33, from the baseline EBIT, we describe the key moving parts to the operating profit gather for 2023 at EUR 2.5 million, with all businesses contributing positively and more than offsetting headwinds from inflation and Poste Energia business back costs. Let's now turn to the financial results and 2023 targets for each business segment.

Let's look at Mail, Parcel and Distribution on slide number 33. In 2022, mail revenues were resilient with repricing actions offsetting secular trends. Parcel revenues recovered quarter by quarter, reaching last year's level. Our 2023 target is achievable against a challenging backdrop. Structural mail decline is here to stay, we are planning to mitigate it with tariff increases. Parcel revenues are set to recover, the new Amazon agreement is supportive of this trend with healthy volumes registered since January. On slide number 34, we look at the drivers of Mail, Parcel and Distribution profitability. Starting from the baseline EBIT of negative EUR 70 million in 2022, we expect 2023 EBIT to land to around negative EUR 100 million in a challenging market environment. This includes about EUR 100 million expected early retirement charges. Parcel revenue increase will compensate mail decline.

Higher distribution revenues remunerating commercial efforts will offset cost inflation, including energy cost increase. Moving to slide number 35 on Financial Services. 2022 revenues increased on the back of net interest income in a rising interest rate environment. Our revenue target for 2023 is set at EUR 12.9 billion, mostly driven by recurring revenue components such as NII and Postal Savings distribution fees. We expect the upwards trajectory of net interest income to continue in 2023, albeit the flattening mostly linked to cost of funding for corporates, repos and public administration. While taking advantage of market conditions last year, we already locked in EUR 0.2 billion from active portfolio management. During 2023, we will assess any potential opportunity to redeploy these gains supporting NII going forward.

Postal Savings will be back at the core of our product suite, thanks to a revamped commercial offer agreed with CEP. We expect fees of EUR 1.7 billion in 2023, up EUR 100 million compared to 2022. In 2023, we expect operating profit to remain broadly stable, affected by higher intersegment costs remunerating an enhanced distribution network. Moving to slide 36, we have a good visibility on NII evolution going forward to around EUR 2.2 billion for 2023. Volumes are expected stable throughout the year, while higher interest rates will support a rising interest income. However, interest expenses, mostly related to public administration, repos and corporate will absorb part of the benefit.

An upward parallel shift of 100 basis points in the interest rate curve will provide an additional 7 basis points on the portfolio yield as a result of our yield boosting hedging in place in 2023. Moving to slide 37, TFAs. At the end of 2022, TFAs amounted to EUR 462 billion, down EUR 34 billion since December last year, mostly impacted by market effect from higher interest rates. Reported net inflows negative EUR 500 million in 2022, mostly driven by Postal Savings, but they amount to a positive EUR 2.7 billion once we exclude one-offs and other volatile components. Looking at each item, Postal Savings negative flows amounted to EUR 11.1 billion, mitigated by positive EUR 5 billion market effect and have been improving since Q2 2022, thanks to a revamped commercial offer.

Net technical reserves benefited from a positive net inflow, EUR 7.6 billion, a performance well ahead of market trends, supported by compelling product mix adapted to market conditions. Deposits and others grew by EUR 2.8 billion, driven by sticky retail deposits. Lastly, there were positive net inflows in savings and investments, supported by insurance products and mutual funds, above EUR 7 billion. As a reminder, 98% of our customer TFAs are held in capital guaranteed and liquidity products. On slide number 38, you can see the payments and mobile business has performed particularly well, with all product lines displaying strong revenue growth and driving exposure to fast-growing payments market in Italy. Revenues operating profit have in fact doubled since 2017, with strong contribution from payments and increasing telco revenues. This is evidence of the strength of our brand and the trust of our customers.

In 2022, revenues totaled EUR 1.32 billion pro forma for the consolidation of REEF for the full year for a fair comparison versus 2023. The new energy business will contribute EUR 0.2 billion revenues, benefiting from a strong commercial momentum with over 3,000 contracts sold daily. We expect revenues up to EUR 1.7 billion in 2023, and EBIT to grow to EUR 0.4 billion, more than offsetting the structural decline in the traditional payments and EUR 0.1 billion drag into the energy set up costs. Moving to slide 39 on insurance. We had a strong 2022, with total revenues increasing by 7%, nearing EUR 2 billion net of base and adjustments. In the life business, the investment margin increased, benefiting from higher volumes, also supported by inflation-linked bonds.

The P&C business benefited from higher gross written premiums across all product lines and improved profitability. EBIT increased 60%, reaching a record high level since 2017. Looking forward to 2023, higher volumes and margins will be driving underlying profitability, with EBIT increasing to around EUR 1.4 billion. As mentioned, we target a profitable growth for our protection business, accelerated by the potential acquisition of Net Insurance. The revenue target next year will be at EUR 1.6 billion, which is comparable to similar amount last year on a like-for-like basis. Under IFRS 17, revenues and costs directly attributable to insurance policies are accounted for in the CSM. Therefore, upfront fees are no longer recognized as market revenue of the insurance segment because they're passed through the financial services. Let me hand over to Andrea Novelli, Poste Vita CEO. Andrea, please go ahead.

Andrea Novelli
CEO, Poste Vita

Thanks, Camillo, and good morning, everyone. Talking on slide 41, as you can see, Poste Vita net inflows were positive in 2022 and actually outperformed the market, supporting constant growth in mathematical reserves. This positive trend is expected to be confirmed in 2022, despite difficult market conditions, due to our capacity to adapt our product mix to a changing environment, as I will explain later on. As you can see on the right-hand side of this slide, average profitability steadily increased over the past years, and we expect it to continue growing on the back of higher margin Multi-class and Class I new production. To put things into context, the margins achieved of new Multi-class business are expected at around 150 basis points, and on Class I product at approximately 120 basis points, supporting the 2023 forecasted margin increase.

As per our product mix between Class One and multi-class products, we are adjusting our target balance to adapt to a completely different scenario. Our multi-class target mix of 60% within 2024 has indeed been met ahead of schedule in 2021, with 58% in 2022 in a far more risk-averse environment, the share of multi-class was reduced to 44%. Going forward in 2023, we will therefore retain flexibility to vary the share of multi-class products on gross written premiums, leveraging the current interest rate environment like the current one, also on traditional Class One products, which are both more sustainable for us and more attractive for our clients. Let me explain it with an example. On the bottom right of this slide, you can see that the return on allocated capital for new Class One business is twice the 2020 figure.

While for our customers, the benefit of holding Class I products presents 1.5 times better value for money. Slide 42 shows the sustainability of our life business over time. On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see that the declining trend in segregated fund return has finally reversed since 2021. At the same time, in 2022, the investment rate has started to rise again, halting the erosion of the stock return. Therefore, after about 10 years, we now expect the investment in 2023 to occur at a higher rate than the underlying stock. Actually, the number you see on this slide might be considered quite conservative, because we are currently reinvesting above 3%, and with an asset mix that is much more efficient in terms of capital charges compared to what we used to do even only 2 years ago.

We are in fact investing in European high-rated government bonds rather than in corporate and high-yield ones, we have a limited exposure to alternatives, mainly asset classes such as private debt and infrastructure, with high protection from inflation and interest rate increase. We also took advantage of the extra return from inflation-linked bonds to optimize our investment portfolio. Finally, let me stress that the average minimum guaranteed rate is already low and further declining, with a consequent margin increase between average yield and guaranteed rate in the past years. Turning to the right side of this slide, if we consider historical data, market lapse rates are still relatively low despite the increase observed in the past months. Our lapse rate has been moderately increasing as well, but around 4% is still indeed about a half of market average.

That being said, with resilient new production levels to date, we are currently slightly ahead of net new expectations, having already reached EUR 2 billion at the end of last week. Let's move on to non-life business on slide 43. Starting from the retail business, let me remind you that our journey began in 2020 when we launched a simple modular offer to cover all personal lines with a single insurance contract. Since then, we have been increasing the coverage we provide to our clients, as shown by the relentless growth of average premium ticket. This is important for us in terms of P&L. Even more so for our clients, as we always aim to ensure that they receive an appropriate service and compensation when they submit a claim. On top of that, we are now focusing on integrated investment and protection advisory.

We tested a new platform in 2022, we are rolling it out to cover all life investment products. Accordingly, the significant growth in productivity highlighted, as you can see by a doubling average daily production, is coupled with marginal incremental costs because it is associated with another product that we would have sold anyway. Moving on to health insurance on the bottom left chart of this slide. In 2022, we almost doubled health premiums compared to 2020. This is the result of a fast growth in both retail health coverage within our modular offer and employee benefit business with evident economies of scale. In this respect, we are now handling twice as many claims per FTE. Turning to slide 44. Solvency ratio has remained well above our managerial ambition despite volatile market conditions.

Solvency II ratio was 253% at the end of last year, net of 3 percentage points of foreseeable dividends, for a total of stream of EUR 450 million dividends in 2022. Last September, Solvency II ratio improved thanks to a number of factors, including the positive net impact from the market, capital generation from the business and enforced portfolio, as a consequence of certain risk coverage actions I will tell you about more later on. Thanks to these factors, Poste Italiane is now one of the best capitalized companies among the larger Italian insurers. Since the beginning of the year, thanks to more favorable market conditions, in particular a lower BTP spread, the ratio is even higher, between 260%-275% as of March 28.

On slide 45, as you can see on the left-hand side, as already anticipated, solvency ratio remains stable through the cycle above our managerial ambition despite significant market volatility. The ratio has been stabilized also through proactive actions that we have taken over time to compensate unfavorable economic variances. Spread and interest rate sensitivities have been significantly reduced through investment portfolio diversification and an improved product mix, also supported by favorable market conditions. As a result of the above, we feel confident to adopt a new capital management framework, which will allow us to consider capital optimization actions when the solvency ratio is above our managerial ambition of 200% and is expected to remain well above such a target through the cycle based, of course, on ongoing visibility.

Within this framework, we expect to increase the remittance ratio to the parent company to up to 75% in 2023, for dividends to be paid in 2024. On slide 46, let's look at the regulatory Mass Lapse risk coverage we have recently completed. Due to the sudden and significant increase in interest rates, regulatory Mass Lapse risk has become by far the largest component of the Solvency Capital Requirement of life insurance companies applying Standard Formula like we do. To manage such risk, we signed a 3-year Mass Lapse insurance treaty with 5 leading global insurers for a total gross reduction of the Mass Lapse capital requirement of around EUR 1 billion, corresponding to a net reduction of total FCR of around EUR 0.6 billion.

As a consequence of such coverage, our Solvency II ratio as of December 2022 benefited from 30 percentage points. The treaty shields ass lapse risks by partially covering Poste Vita from any capital losses that it might have to sustain should lapse rate over a 12-month running period become higher than a certain threshold up to a maximum lapse level. Given the strong appetite for the group's consistently low and below market average lapse rate, the transaction has proved to be extremely cost efficient. These 3 year treaty will bridge the gap ahead of internal model implementation. Let's move now to slide 47. As you know, starting from January this year, insurance companies have adopted IFRS 17. The first key message here on this transition is that the new accounting standards have no impact on cash flows, capital generation, dividends, and Solvency II ratio of Poste Vita.

Transition to IFRS 17 actually allows for a closer alignment with the principles underpinning Solvency II calculations. The second message is that shareholder's equity on transition is impacted by liabilities discounting, recognition of CSM, and risk adjustment. In this respect, please remember that we have been applying IFRS 9 since 2018. Unlike other insurance companies that are adopting both IFRS 9 and 17 at the same time, our investment value remains unchanged. On transition, the CSM is EUR 11 billion. Comprehensive equity defined as CSM net of tax, plus shareholder's equity is EUR 12 billion. The stock of CSM reflects the net present value of future profits of the in-force portfolio. Its release over time is therefore going to be the main driver of profitability going forward.

The total release ratio of CSM is expected in the range of 6%-8%, in line with the expected life of our in-force portfolio. Given that the majority of our business will be accounted for using the variable fee approach, we expect lower infra annual volatility of life P&L. In non-life, generally speaking, the impact is limited. Overall, we therefore expect a neutral or slightly positive effect on the insurance business P&L, and a strong improvement in terms of visibility of its embedded value. Thank you all on my side, and now back to Camillo for some comments on costs and shareholder's equity.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Thanks, Andrea. Moving to slide 49 on human capital. In 2022, the number of FTEs decreased further, just shy of 120,000 people, embedding record high hirings, which we plan also for 2023 to adapt our workforce to the business evolution.

Net of M&A, FTEs will decrease by further 1,000 in 2023. We see further efficiencies going forward, which will be assessed with the new strategic plan we are currently working on. Moving to slide 50, we discuss HR costs, which show a remarkable achievement since 2017. Ordinary HR costs fell further year-on-year, reaching EUR 5.23 billion in 2022, confirming our efficiency, with HR costs on revenue down 10 percentage points in 2017 to 43%. Early retirement charges were below the 2022 target due to the reduced historical exit costs, which will continue to retain flexibility for the future with the total available fund of EUR 350 million at year end 2022. 2023 HR costs are expected at EUR 5.5 billion on a like for like basis, while the implementation of IFRS 17 will result in a reduction of EUR 0.4 billion on a reported basis, which is neutral at EBITDA level.

Bear in mind the 2023 cost per FTE already include a pre-agreed salary increase. Next year we plan to book EUR 0.1 billion early retirement charges to support ongoing transformation. On slide 51, we look at non-HR costs. Total non-HR costs for 2022 are at EUR 3.79 billion, lower than the target of EUR 3.9 billion despite inflationary pressures. Over the plan, we estimate that the ratio between variable cost and related variable revenue would steadily decrease from 77% in 2017 to 64% in 2022, anticipating the 2024 target. Non-HR costs for 2023 will be around EUR 4.4 billion, with an increase related to business growth, change of perimeter with M&A, energy startup costs and inflation. Turning to slide 52. We continue to focus on key areas of investment to support business growth to the tune of EUR 1 billion, including EUR 0.2 billion related to the Polis project.

On the right side of the slide, you can see the key areas of focus, and I'd like to point out that more than 70% of the initiatives and investment are ESG related. Finally, on slide number 53. Since 2017, we have generated EUR 4.5 billion of capital, building a fortress balance sheet while being able to fund significant organic and inorganic growth, as well as distributing EUR 4 billion in dividends. As a result, we have a shareholder equity in excess of EUR 11 billion, with an effective allocation, ready to support growth across business units. That's all from me. Now back to Matteo.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Camillo. Let's move to slide 55. Based on our performance, we are increasing our dividend for 2022 and 2023.

On last year results, we proposed a dividend per share of EUR 0.65 compared to the original figure of EUR 0.63, an increase of 10% year-over-year. Next year we will increase the dividend to EUR 0.71, an increase of 9% year-over-year and 2 percentage points higher than the previous guidance. This upgrade is not only driven by consistent financial performance delivered over time, but also by the increased visibility of the cash flow generation across all businesses. As usual, we are committed to a credible and competitive dividend while confirming our interim policy, which envisages the balance of 2022 dividend of EUR 0.44 to be paid in June. Let me conclude with some key messages. In the middle of macroeconomic and industry headwinds, we end 2022 repositioning the business on a sustainable path.

We have more than doubled EBIT to EUR 2.3 million in 2022 from 2017. The investment continuation is showing its results. We have a robust capital and liquidity positions. Looking ahead to 2023, we see supportive business trends and full clarity on cost inflation. The results seen so far in Q1 increase our confidence in the target set for 2023, which we see achievable under different market conditions. We are convinced that even in uncertain market scenario, retail investors will continue to see Poste as the safe harbor and trusting us with their savings as they've done over the past 150 years. The baseline is in place for the new strategic plan. I would like to thank everyone who works in Poste Italiane and our stakeholders for the trust they have shown.

Thank you for the time today, and stay tuned. Let's now open the floor to the questions. Over to you, Massimo.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Matteo. We are going to move to Q&As, and then I will repeat questions which we have been submitted in written. For any topic which will not be covered, feel free to contact the IR team, and we will be very happy to come back to you as soon as possible. Thank you. The first question is from Banca IMI, Manuela Meroni. Please, Manuela.

Speaker 10

Yes, good morning, thank you for the presentation. I have two questions. The first one is on deposits. I'm wondering if you have experienced any deposit outflows in the first quarter of 2023. I'm wondering if you are increasing the remuneration of your deposits and what is embedded in the full year 2023 guidance in terms of additional cost of deposits. The second question is on dividends. I know that you are going to release your plan later on during the year. Considering the +10% we have seen this year in terms of dividend per share and 9% expected in 2023, I'm wondering if it makes sense that you assume the dividend policy going forward to see a 9%, 10% increase in the dividend per share per annum.

The third question is on the mail and parcel business, which reported an EBIT loss of EUR 326 million in 2022, but it embedded EUR 253 million of negative one-off, so it's already close to the break even. My question is when do you expect to reach the break even in mail and parcel distribution? Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Thank you, Manuela. On the first question on deposits, if we can go back to page 19 of our wide presentation for a second. Poste historically has always been perceived as the safe harbor by Italian retails. We went back over 20 years to look at the crisis that the retail saving world in Italy went through. The beginning of the century, there were the corporate defaults. As you can see, our deposits increased significantly across the period because people don't feel safe, and Poste is the natural place to go.

It was the same with the Lehman crisis of 2008 where we experienced again an increase. Again, with the sovereign crisis of 2011 and throughout there was a significant increase. There was then a banking crisis in 2016-2017 related to some northern Italian banks. It was, again, a positive experience, quote-unquote, for our retail savings. More specifically on your question of Q1, we are comparing Q1, you know, on on a year-to-date basis with last year, so with Q1 2022. We see almost EUR 4 billion increase on a quarter-over-quarter basis, with basically all segments of our savings products outperforming last year.

Also savings, deposits, Andrea mentioned insurance, and at the margin also the asset management products. On increasing remuneration, I would like Camillo to go more into details, please. Yes.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Thank you. Good morning, Manuela . First of all, we have indeed include in our projections some cost of, cost of funding. There is a difference between cost of funding for retail customers, which is smaller in absolute amount as we have on average EUR 6,400 on our deposits. Individuals who decide to open account with Post is not for yield, but it's because they like the offer, the efficiency of the offer, and the cost associated to it.

I think that our view is that our view is that having remuneration on cash deposits is not a key selling factor of the proposition. Would they want to do that, we can obviously offer them what is called the Buono Smart, which the CEO just discussed, which offers 3% yearly interest. That is for retail customers. For instead corporates and public administration, we have higher cost of funding, and the combined impact of the two is circa 0.3 in terms of beta.

In absolute level, it's somewhere around 65 or 70 basis points on the overall yield for 2023, which basically means we have a yield of 3% gross, and net yield of circa 2.3%, which bakes in the EUR 2.2 billion of NII projection that we discussed earlier.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

On dividend, our dividend yield is in line with the market. We decided to increase by 10% for this year and 9% for guidance of 2023, mainly on the back of steady capital and upstream dividend flows from all our business units.

Specifically, I think, what you've seen on Poste Vita, so our decision to potentially increase from 50% - 75% payout give us comfort on this increase. Going forward, which was really your question, we will have, you know, a new plan later on this year with the new board. The signal we give today will, you know, be considered in defining the new plan, which will take, obviously, also the dividend policy into it. On mail and parcel, the key then, again, to Camillo, please. Yes.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Indeed, there is a recent trajectory in terms of evolution of mail, parcel, and distribution.

We do hope that in 2022, we'll do as well as we did in 2022, excluding the one-off items. In fact, you will see that is EUR -0.1, which is a close number. At the same time, we also need to factor in secular mail decline, competition in parcels, and inflation. I think that we feel good about the numbers for 2023. I think the aim is still to get as close as possible with what we had in the past on 2024. That frankly will be reviewed as part of the new plan, which we'll share with investors later on the year.

Amongst the items that are outstanding is obviously the renewal of the new labor contract, which is due for renewal in 2024, and the value of that payout will obviously have an impact on that mail key then. In any event, I want to stress once more that we are doing all that we can to get there.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Okay. The next question is from, Bancaini, Opendoor, sorry, Intermonte. Alberto Villa. Please, Alberto.

Alberto Villa
Partner and the Head of Equity Research, Intermonte

Thank you for taking my question, and good morning to everyone. I have a couple of questions. The first one is on the digital payments. You are forecasting a transaction value up, 14% 2023 versus 2022. I was wondering how much that is driven from the LIS consolidation and how much this is driven from organic growth. The second one is on what you mentioned before, so the renewal of the labor agreement. Is there any, let's say anticipation you can share with us on what are your expectations in this respect? This is obviously a very important factor to model the future evolution of the cost base. Finally, would like to ask you about the logistics competitive environment.

We have seen, or there has been a lot of press about one of your largest competitors, so Bartolini Group being involved in mismanage of employee contracts and so on. I was wondering if that could be an opportunity for you to get additional market share. In general, what what you're expecting from the other largest player like Amazon and so on the logistics side going forward. Thank you very much.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Okay. I think the first question is easy in the sense that we were already working on the payment business with LIS even before the acquisition. The number and the increase that you see is the growth of, you know, the market on one side and also the other market share at the same time. On labor, we haven't started obviously negotiation. All I can tell you that in the past, the first year of the new contract, which is supposed 2024, is always considered sort of a transition year that has, you know, a minor effect on labor cost, but it's clearly premature to have the visibility on that.

Certainly we have gone through a long process of value probably defined creation for our employees, because we gave them, which was not there before, the health insurance as part of the contract, and this was not the case five years ago. We gave them 6 million hours of training. We gave them many different benefits that, you know, we are gonna put on the table when we start the negotiation. DSP is clearly a topic. It's a topic, and you know, from what we understand, you know, they're not the only one clearly the one more exposed at the moment to this judiciary action on contracts and business operations.

The first comment is that, we need to make sure that, you know, we are okay ourselves, and that, you know, it's something we obviously attend, carrying a lot and try to be out of the group of express company that are experiencing problems. Then, you know, without the aim of being, you know, too aggressive, and go for market share, probably there is gonna be a natural attrition for companies that we have to review the contracts, and specifically the contract that has been challenged are contracts on the last mile. I expect that those contracts will probably be sold for a period.

Clearly, you know, in logistics, when you cannot serve the client at the same level of quality you've been serving it creates a clear opportunity for competition. You know, we are obviously assessing both from a legal and a commercial standpoint the situation very closely.

Please.

Alberto Villa
Partner and the Head of Equity Research, Intermonte

On LIS just for Alberto, I think that, you know, our numbers suggested in 2023, the impact on LIS on the payments we did should be around EUR 100 million-EUR 150 million, and that include basically all the drive. Okay. Thank you.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

The next question is from Gianluca Ferrari, Mediobanca. Please, Gianluca.

Gian Luca Ferrari
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes. Hi. Good morning, everybody. The first one is on postal products. you see you got close to EUR 4 billion in second half last year. At the same time, you are raising to EUR 1.7 billion receipts in 2023. I was wondering if you are expecting a pickup in flows, and if you have a pre-closing of Q1 on these specific points you can share with us. The second is on the EUR 320 million provision for the tax credit, how you and your consultants define that. Are credits already signed by prosecutors, or where there is evidence where there is a fraud attached to it? If you can give us a bit of color on how the 320 were calculated. The third is on Eurovita.

We read on the Italian press that you might be interested, or you might intervene, particularly in the GNA sharing part of the business. If you can comment a bit, what is the rationale, and if you had a chance to make any actual assessment on their book. Last is a curiosity, if Andrea can share the math behind the value for money insurance, represented at page 51. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Okay. Thank you, Gianluca. The first answer is simple. We went from -4 to -1.5, that's a significant improvement on a quarter-over-quarter. That's EUR 2.5 billion improvement out of the EUR 4 billion I mentioned on the overall savings. It's clearly more than 50%, but it's not the only item that has improved in the savings that we see.

The fact that it's a minus relates to the very high volumes of maturities and redemptions, and we're still targeting on annual basis a negative figure, but a negative figure that is allowing us to increase the distribution fee from 1.6 last year - 1.7 last year, this year, because as I explained, we revamped, and CNP revamped the offer, and now this offer is very much aligned with market. As Camillo mentioned, is allowing us to capture more interest sensitive clients, which is, you know, good for volumes for us, and therefore remuneration for us, and income statement, because clearly the interest cost doesn't go on into our PNL.

On Eurovita, no calculation at all. You know, we don't have any visibility on the specifics. Let me just remind you that it's a very different company, a very different business model in the life space. They distribute, they were distributing with over 70 networks, clearly, you know, very different from us that, you know, we distribute obviously only with our network. The, from what we understand, you know, reading the press, there is a big portion of high net worth individuals in their product portfolio of EUR 16 billion life contracts. Again, it's a big difference versus us.

The last point is that, you know, we're standing the fact that redemptions and early redemptions have been stopped for 2 months. We haven't seen any impact whatsoever on our redemption rates on our last in the last 2 months. On tax credit, please, Camillo on the methodology. Thank you.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

The number we reached of EUR 320 million is the result of a detailed analysis of our portfolio just to set the scene for, you know, for importantly remind that we have first of all that in any judicial process which involved credit to Poste Italiane, there was seen as a third party acting in good faith. We are the ones who have been thrown away.

What we have done is that we have looked at the entire portfolio of EUR 9 billion at book value at the end of the year. We have sliced the portfolio based on the vintage, i.e., when this credit has been acquired. We have sliced the portfolio based on the type of tax credit depending on the bonus associated to it. We have also sliced the portfolio based on the region in which tax credit has been acquired. Then we assessed the relative risk of the different cohorts, so the different vintages, and we took a higher provision, which I remind you is in cash.

We had provision on the tax credit that have been seized, on a precautious standpoint from the judicial authority, and we have taken a higher level of provision on those, and then we have taken down the provision based on the decreasing the perceived level of risk.

Gian Luca Ferrari
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

The next question.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Yeah. calculation under the need for money we show on page 41. What we do is basically we look at the expected return, overall, we get, from our investments underlying the Class I products. Then we look at the split of such return we get through our commissions and direct return that is transferred to our clients.

Given that the expected returns for Class I investments are now much higher compared to 2020, even 2021, given the new interest rate environment, this leads to a much higher expected value for money for our customers because we are not increasing in the meantime our fees. We expect to capture it also by launching in the coming weeks a new segregated fund that will allow us to capture higher investment yields that you saw on page 42 even quicker for our clients compared to what will happen to the average yield that is in existing segregated funds.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you. The next question is from Gianmarco Bonacina, Equita. Yes. Gianmarco.

Gianmarco Bonacina
Head of Research, Equita

Yes. Good morning. A couple of questions. Again, sorry, on the tax credit, we read that, according to the government, out of the EUR 100 billion tax credit market, there are about EUR 9 billion of fraud, which is an 8% rate. I just wanted to understand if your provision, which is about 4% of your portfolio, is basically below the amount which is currently sized, or it is the total amount which is currently basically sized by the authorities. If for you the worst case is just not getting the interest until these credit are sized, or the worst case could be that eventually you can lose also the capital. That's the first question.

Second question is about the solvency ratio, which is clearly increased a lot. If you can clarify what is for you the cost, the running cost of the insurance, and also what is the timing for moving to an internal model and what could be the incremental benefit of this adoption? The last question is about the mail and parcel. Just to clarify, on the presentation, you talk about underlying parcel business ex growth, but effectively your guidance is, like, EUR 1.4 billion flat for this business. Just to clarify. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

On tax credit, the assessment we've made, as Camillo described, is starting from our existing portfolio of EUR 9 billion in the balance sheet at the end of last year. We reached the EUR 320 million figure, which is by coincidence more or less in line with what we've been fees. It comes from the slicing and the clusterization of the in-force portfolio. The figures you mentioned on the overall Italian portfolio are the one we also read. You know, we just noticed that versus the 8% you mentioned, we are below 50% of that figure anyway. You know, we're clearly on that respect outperforming the market.

The question on interest and capital is also capital because basically we assess the likelihood of not receiving or not being able to compensate the amount. It's both. On solvency, please. There were 2 questions. 1 was what is the cost of the Mass Lapse insurance. The cost is around EUR 20 million per year in 2022 and 2023 because it is a 3-year contract, we have an option to close after 2 years. The cost for 2022 is already of course booked in our financial for 2022, and the cost for 2023 is included in the guidance we have provided.

We believe this transaction is quite cost effective if you compare it to any other sort of capital management action you can figure out. The second question was about internal model timing and expectation in terms of some of the future evolution. Where we stand on internal model. Over the past two years, we completed the hiring of a new team of around 20 people. We're talking about PhDs and financial engineers, because it's going to be a very complex model. We completed the investments we needed in IT and other internal procedures. We completed the development of the internal model. Now we need to start Validation phase on our own, so we have to validate the result of the model on our own.

After having done that, we can start to formally engage our national authority to ask for the application to use the internal model. One of the reason why we have done this Mass Lapse insurance transaction is really to bridge the timing we will need to complete the development of the internal model, and also to work on the specific area, the Mass Lapse risk capital requirement that we believe will be an area where we could benefit from the implementation of the internal model in order to sort of anticipate the effect we could have from the implementation of the model itself.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

Okay. Camillo on parcel. For the last question, Gianmarco, we're expecting absolute growth for the parcel business to the tune of around 2% compared to 2022.

That is a result of volumes going up, a bit of pricing erosion as a result of the evolution in the market. Positive 2% in absolute level of the revenue. Thank you.

Gianmarco Bonacina
Head of Research, Equita

Thank you.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you. From Michael Huttner from Berenberg. Please, Mike.

Speaker 9

Fantastic. Thank you. I've got 2 questions, and I'm sorry, I'm Nicole. The first one is on the net interest income. I noticed it went up from EUR 5 million-EUR 5 million, or EUR 5 million to EUR 3 million to EUR 5 million to EUR 8 million, Q3 on Q4. I wondered what is the figure at the base of your EUR 2.2 billion, and how what you can say about Q1 already on that figure? The second is really a clarification. I think you had a figure of EUR 253 million in the mail and parcel business as your baseline adjustment. I'm sure you've explained it, but I completely missed it, and I'd be really grateful because I'm kind of struggling a little bit on that one.

My last question is on the mail and parcel breakeven again. Did I understand correctly that the original plan target was 2024, but in the meantime, you've got this kind of labor contract renegotiation, so there's a bit of uncertainty there? Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Just to take on the second question. I think, you know, my suggestion is, if you don't mind, the second question is a clarification. You can take it offline with Massi. On the last question, it's correct. There was a target, and let's, you know, you have to wait, I'm sorry, for the new plan later on this year to have the confirmation of the plan or not. On net interest income, Camillo.

Camillo Greco
CFO, Poste Italiane

On net interest income, EUR 525 is the number that we recorded in Q4 2022. We are aiming to have a full year NII in 2023 of around EUR 2.2 billion. We believe that the NII in the last quarter is consistent with that, with that aim.

The first few months are certainly performing, in line with our ambitions and supporting the target.

Speaker 9

Why has it came up more? Interest rates have been rising during Q4, didn't they?

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

We can now move to the last question from... We have a couple of questions from the webcast platform. Giovanni Razzoli from Deutsche Bank. Please, Giovanni.

Giovanni Razzoli
Senior Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for my slide. The first one, if you can show me live, a more updated figure in terms of the stock of Supermarket in Data, which reached EUR 1.8 billion as of January. If you can show me live, an updated figure in, for example, mid-March or end of March, that would be great. Then to Camillo with a comment about.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Sorry. Giovanni, sorry. Can you speak slowly? On the first question, we really have.

Giovanni Razzoli
Senior Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Okay. Is it better now?

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Yeah, maybe.

Giovanni Razzoli
Senior Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Okay. Thank you for the presentation and for the comprehensive details. The first question is on the evolution of your Supermarket in Data product, which was reached EUR 1.8 billion as of the end of January. Can you show me live what is the more updated figure for this stock? Camillo, you mentioned something on the deposit beta that you expect for 2023. I've missed that comment. If you can share with us this feedback, that'd be great. The second question is on the mail and parcels and specifically on the recently announced deal with DHL.

What could be the incremental impact in terms of volumes and revenues in the parcels over, you know, a medium-term perspective? The last question is on for Andrea on the insurance business. There is clearly a little bit of pressure on the market from the rising rate environment on income on the traditional policies. We've seen some of your competitors reporting some outflows year to date. You don't feel much impacted by this trend, at least looking at your guidance and your targets for 2023. I was wondering whether you would see the return on the segregated account, that is still below the leverage of the level of the gov as a potential, you know, threat going forward for the evolution of the traditional life for 2023. Thank you.

Andrea Novelli
CEO, Poste Vita

I will start with the last question so that we have it fresh. You covered a couple of points. First of all, yes, I can confirm that we are overperforming the markets in terms of net inflows. We have been doing so last year, and we are doing even more so since the beginning of the year because the market is in a negative inflows territory, as you mentioned, whereas we are experiencing a strong result. We already reached EUR 2 million of net inflows as of last week. You mentioned the expectations about the future returns for segregated account products. As you can see on page 42 of my presentation, returns started to pick up already since 2021.

Thanks to the fact that we are now investing at a higher rate, we expect a positive evolution going forward. When you compare this kind of return with other kind of investments, we have, of course, to bear in mind the kind of customers which is buying this product, and the different level of market risk exposure they want to buy. To be clear, when you buy a government bond, for example, you might get a higher return, but you are fully exposed to market risk volatilities. Whereas when you buy a Class I product, you still get a decent return, and you have zero market volatility.

This is why in the current environment, having a business model like ours with a product factory, fully integrated with the network and a very diversified customer base, it's really a plus that we have even other players in the market, I believe.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Can I just add the fact that Andrea mentioned the launch of the new segregated account, which is specifically aimed at capturing higher rates and higher investment rates quickly for investors. On the effect on SuperSmart, is that's the figure we raised so far. We, if you have a total amount of spending, you can give it as a number.

Giovanni Razzoli
Senior Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank

1.6% year to date, approximately.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Yeah. Exactly. On DHL, it's quite straightforward, Ronny. We signed this agreement, there is an inbound side of the agreement, which is all flows of DHL coming to Italy will be delivered by Posten. We are working together on a sorting center to allow our network of deliveries, which is made of guys, made of Postini, it's made of our third distribution channel we recently activated to use the labeling and the code, so there is a processing exercise and performing that parcel will have when it gets into Italy. We're gonna be the delivery of DHL e-commerce and parcel business, with the exception obviously of the DHL Express, which is the business DHL already has into Italy.

That will show some results before the end of the year, but there is nothing in the numbers and the plus 2% that Camillo mentioned. The second leg is the one I mentioned in my presentation, is the fact that today in Italy, the outbound business is over 90% with, you know, the big global players. Clearly, we have a very residual share of the market because obviously we don't have the international network to deliver it. That same sorting center will take parcel that are sold as a product by Post to whoever wants to deliver globally.

We sell the Poste product, and we bring that parcel to be obviously shipped globally, internationally to this Italian co manage sorting center with DHL. They apply a price to us, which is, you know, an internal price of DHL, as if DHL had one sorting center into Italy. That creates a very important opportunity for Poste, but that takes the time not only of activating the IT and processing, but that will take the time of getting this product into our commercial activities. I think, you know, for 2023, I don't see a lot of revenues, but, you know, hopefully from 2024, this will be important.

Remind that, you know, domestic logistic is in the low, single digit, EBIT margin and, you know, international logistic is closer to 10. It's much more, value-added, business, once we will get going.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

From this, the answer is what?

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

That the number for 2023 is between 0.27%, 0.3% is the result of a low beta on retail customers, higher beta on public administration and corporates, and the overall cost of funding is around 0.7%.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

We have 5 minutes left, we would like to answer a set of questions from the web platform. The first is from Azura Meroni from J.P. Morgan, who is on the move. You had increased the guidance, broadly in line with consensus for 2023. Actually, even under that consensus, which is positive. Could you share with us the margin of conservatism in 2023 guidance? In case the guidance would be increased, as you have done several times in the past, could the dividends be reviewed as well?

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

We have a proven track record of being conservative. Thank you, Azura. I know that is one of the things that you keep, you know, telling us that often are we probably too conservative. Where do I see the areas of improvement versus the 2.5? I think across the board, maybe taking, you know, the weight that every single has on the overall EBIT. You know, insurance, financial institution, payment mobile, and hopefully, main partner in distribution will help us, you know, doing that. On revising the guidance, no, just revisit.

We will work on the new multi-year strategic plan for later on in the year, and maybe that will be the time where we will do that assessment, but nothing that we will do in the next few weeks. Thank you, Azura.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Next question is still from Azura. Would you expect additional one-off in 2023 related to staff restructuring, given the amount you had already set aside?

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

No. As Camillo mentioned, we have set aside on the guidance EUR 100 million. We have a balance sheet item of EUR 350 million, which are there, you know, to help us in the transition. We affect EUR 100 million, which is very much in line with what, you know, over the last 5 years ended up spending on guidance.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Federico Bonanni from Mediolanum is asking, 2022 size of the group portfolio of fair value and held-to-maturity and relative losses realized for a fair value part and unrealized for held-to-maturity. One, 2022 versus 2021, our net equity moves to almost EUR 9 billion from EUR 12 billion in 2021. It seems fair to presume that the fair value realized losses were in by EUR 3 billion. On top of this, there was a EUR 7.2 billion unrealized loss in BancoPosta versus EUR 6 billion in the nine months. Net-net, there is a 2022 unrealized loss of more than EUR 7 billion. End of 2022, our net equity almost EUR 9 billion.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Okay. Look, I think as in, you know, we can take this offside or, you know, Camillo will start answering. I will just mention the fact that all of you remember that over the low yield years that we went through, up to 2021, we were very cautious in affecting our investment versus the interest rate risk. We accumulated up to EUR 40 billion of interest rate swaps in the portfolio, which, you know, for a corporate company is quite sizable. You know, thank God we had that portfolio because, you know, with the market swing, that portfolio had an improvement in terms of, you know, mark-to-market of the specific hedging portfolio of around EUR 10 billion.

You know, for the rest of the question, if you have, you know, the details, I will leave Camillo to answer.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you. I'm afraid with that we are out of time. Any answers.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Thank you.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

-line with.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Thank you.

Massimo Nerici
Head of Investor Relations, Poste Italiane

Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante
CEO and General Manager, Poste Italiane

Okay. Thank you, everybody, for... I would like, one, to remind everybody if, any, question has not been answered, I see that there is probably one, more that we, you know, we cannot, keep the time to, please call Massi on existing and additional question. We're here to answer. Obviously, thank you very much for the time, you put in on understanding Poste. It's, well invested, time, we believe, and looking forward to see you, maybe some of you in person on the roadshow. Thank you.

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