Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Sogefi nine months 2022 results web call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A session. For operator assistance via web call, please press the headset icon on the bottom left side of your screen. For conference call assistance, please press star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Frédéric Sipahi, CEO of Sogefi. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, madam. Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining quarter three results presentation. It has been again a quarter full of challenges for the world and the automotive industry. I'm sure you will acknowledge the good results we have been able to deliver in a challenging market condition.
I propose we move on to page number four, so to have a highlight about the market scenario we had to face in Q3. The sales have been up in this quarter. The market had a rebound during this quarter, and the challenge here was for my team and me to be able to deliver the customers this high demand without reducing the profitability or increasing the inefficiencies.
I'm very happy and proud to say, and you will see that in the figures, that we have been able to do it in a very good way during this quarter. Of course, one of the main topic of this quarter have been also to manage the raw material and energy prices increases. First here, we have done our job internally, implementing very strong actions of efficiency in order to reduce our energy consumption and our raw material consumption. Then, as we agreed, and as we told you, we have done the job with the customers, reaching fair and sustainable agreements, for the prices.
Third, we have continued to do our own work on the cost basis and organization in order to adapt to a market condition that can change from one quarter to another, in order to be able to face potential decreases in next quarters or next year. If we go to page five, the financial highlights.
As I was anticipating before, the market has been very strong during this quarter. On a nine-month basis, our sales are increasing by 18%, reported and almost 12% at constant exchange rates. The EBITDA is almost EUR 7 million higher than last year, with an EBITDA at EUR 151 million. The EBIT conversion has been also very good, with EUR 62.3 million versus EUR 50 million last year.
You have also to exclude the non-recurring of last year in these figures, and we will enter in the details later with Olivier. The net income is up at almost EUR 35 million versus EUR 24 million, if we exclude the accounting impact of Argentina last year. Last but not least, the free cash flow has been very strong, and we have EUR 35 million free cash flow in a nine-month basis. Olivier will detail that later. The sales by geographical area. We have been able to over-perform the market. Our reported sales increase is at 17% versus last year. If we offset the exchange impact, it would be 12%. As you can see, in almost all geographical areas, we are over-performing the market, especially in Europe, North America, and South America.
In China, we are slightly below the market due to a very strong last year, thanks to the start of new programs. If we go to page 7 by business unit, so here again, all the business units are over-performing the market. Suspensions has, at constant exchange rate, an increase of 17%, Filtration 13%, thanks to the aftermarket performance, and Air and Cooling 5%. Sorry, I have an issue with the presentation to change the slide. Okay.
I think we lost Frédéric. Maybe I will continue until Frédéric is able to join us again. Can you hear me, Stefano?
Yes.
Okay. Thank you. Yes, nine-
Sorry. Really sorry, Olivier. Thank you for taking over. The network is very bad here. We have some storms. The nine-month customers, the hierarchy has not changed. Basically Stellantis is still the number one, followed by Ford, Daimler, and GM. As anticipated in the previous calls, we have continued to develop new customers, especially in China, and I'm sure that in coming years, they will join the ranking of the top 10 customers. Olivier, I'll let you go through the bridge.
Thanks, Frédéric. Following those performance of the business, here is our EBIT performance breakdown versus 2021. In 2021, our EBIT was at 49.4. 50% of our sales. We had last year negative impact on non-recurring and non-operating up to EUR 9.1 million. The details, the breakdown is in the presentation later if you need. Last year, we had an EBIT of EUR 40.3 million, excluding non-recurring. This year, we had a volume effect of EUR 14.1 million. A squeeze effect, which is the net between the price increase we have been able to pass through and the raw material increase. A squeeze effect positive of EUR 1.4 million.
That's the extremely good performance described by Frédéric just before. We have a negative impact in our P&L for EUR 3.4 million, which is roughly a mix and performance effect. All in all, we have a negative impact on our fixed cost by EUR 4.7 million, excluding any exchange difference, because, you know, fixed cost exchange difference is positive EUR 4.3 million.
This EUR 4.7 million is mainly restructuring costs. Frédéric told you that we did our homework to prepare our footprint for the future. That's the impact. We have EUR 4.7 million positive D&A write-down compared to last year, to reach finally an EBIT at EUR 56.8 million, EBIT 2022, excluding non-recurring effect.
We have positive non-recurring and/or non-operating effect up to EUR 5.4 million, which are mainly exchange difference coming from our location in NAFTA mainly. We reach this EUR 62.3 million of EBIT 2022, 5.3% of our sales. If we go on the details of the P&L, as already explained, we have an increase of our revenue by 18%, which. We have a contribution margin at 27.7%, but this 27.7% is in fact 29.7% if we exclude the dilution effect due to the selling price increase. EBITDA at EUR 151 million. You will see the EBIT at EUR 62.3 million.
The EBIT 2021 was sustained by the non-recurring and non-operating effect you see on the bridge by EUR 9.1. The gap is extremely positive. In terms of financial results, we have under control our cost of financing. As you see, last year our financial result was at EUR 13.4.
We are at EUR 13.6 this year. That's a particular comment on income tax, and at the end of the day, we have a positive net income at EUR 33 million compared to last year, minus 2 last year. It was including the Argentine operation. If we have a look specifically on Q3, our sales growth by 29.4%, 35.5% if we exclude in 2021 what we call a special project.
There's a specific operation that increased last year, our sales and our EBITDA. Our EBIT, sorry. Thanks to this increase, we have an EBIT at 21.8%, thanks to raw material and energy costs, which have been fully compensated by the price. As you can see, our financial result is in line with what we had last year. We have higher income tax, but somehow normal, with the increase of our EBIT. Our net income for the Q3 is at EUR 12.2 million compared to EUR -23.4 million last year, which included the impact of Argentina. Free cash flow.
Free cash flow is a real topic because we had to compensate in our free cash flow the increase of our working capital due to the increase of our sales. We have been successful in this operation. We increase proportionally to our sales, our factoring without recourse. That's allow us to completely mitigate the impact of the increase on our working cap. We have been able to deliver EUR 35.3 million as free cash flow net compared to EUR 26.5 million last year. As you can see, our factoring increased by EUR 87 million up to EUR 110 million, and the increase is in line with the increase of sales compared to last year. What does it give in terms of debt profile and financing?
As you know, we have been able at the end of 2021 and early 2022 to renew a big part of our financing before the current crisis. That allow us to have an average maturity of our debt of 3.3 years with big repayment or maturity in 2026 and 2027. 2022, 2023, from a financing point of view is not an issue. We have EUR 150 million of line committed and drawn, EUR 139 million of cash available today. Let's say that we do consider that we have a safe profile in term of debt and debt repayment. In addition, I will point out that 55% of our group's debt is at fixed rate.
Quick outlook on the view. Suspensions sales up 24.1% compared to last year, plus 16.7% at constant exchange, thanks to good performance in South and North America, India, and repricing. EBITDA in line with last year in absolute value, percentage diluted by repricing effect. Filtration nine months 2022 revenue up 16.8% at current exchange rates, plus 12.8% at constant exchange rates.
Aftermarket is a resilient market with Sogefi responding adequately to customer requests despite logistics chain issues, thus acquiring new market shares. EBITDA improved by EUR 10 million versus 2021. Air & Cooling, nine months 2022 up 12%, plus 17% net of 2021 special project we already talked about, plus 4.8% at constant exchange. EBITDA improved by EUR 5 million compared to 2021. Frédéric Sipahi?
Thank you, Olivier. Thank you very much. Let's move on to business side. As we told you last times, we have built a very resilient business model, and in the same time, we continue to have a sustainable transformation of the group and be able to follow the evolution of the market quicker than the market itself. As you all know, we entered in the e-mobility in Air & Cooling six years ago now.
On Filtration, we have started three years ago, the transition from diesel product to new products, including the purification or transmission filters. In Suspensions, there is no big technological revolution ongoing. It's all about turning around the model, from an operational point of view, and also being able to leverage on the new footprint, especially the Romanian plants we have built.
We are committed on ESG topic in a very pragmatic way, combining these topics with the business in our daily life. From a business development point of view, the nine months and the last quarter have been quite good. In a nutshell, currently 54% of the contracts that we have been awarded in Air & Cooling are for e-mobility.
You have to keep in mind that in Air & Cooling, North America is a quite big market. Right now, the range in North America is lower than in China and Europe, but we have started to see a big push also in North America.
In Filtration, we have been able to be awarded on air and water purification products, and we have also been awarded on a battery vent system, I will present it to you later, developed between Filtration and Air & Cooling teams. In Suspensions, the good news is that currently 43% of our business acquisition are on e-mobility cars and platforms, and we have been awarded in China for an important contract for stabilizer bar with a local e-mobility player.
This is very important. Of course, we continue to develop business with our legacy customers. We have very strong relationship and a very strong customer intimacy based on our 40 years history with them. In the same time, we invest also a lot of effort, time, and resources to selected new entrants on the market.
The term new entrant is somehow a bit wrong, because Geely, SAIC, BYD are not new entrants, but it's customers that we are developing a lot in Sogefi currently. In the same time, we have started to work with really new entrants like Arrival, Xiaomi. We have also worked with NIO in China.
We do believe that these customers, from a technological point of view, volume point of view, and also product point of view, may be very interesting in the future. As I was anticipating, we had a quite strong positive commercial activity in 2022, with a lot of products that switched from innovation on shelf to a real product awarded with contract.
This is key in e-mobility because now our portfolio of products under development and production is really growing a lot. I was speaking just before about the battery vent system, so this is a quite new module that we are now proposing to all our customers. We have been awarded with a pure EV player on that topic.
The platform for battery is becoming very key on the bus and light commercial vehicle, and we have been able to propose to our customers in this segment a new technology of battery cooling plates, thanks to our welding know-how. I have to admit that it has been quite a strong hit in the battery show in North America, where we were three weeks ago.
We continue to develop, innovate, and propose to our customers this kind of product, always specialized in the cooling of the battery or the electronic inside EV applications. A good sign of our dynamism in the quotations for e-mobility and our global quotation is that currently 84% of our quotations are for e-mobility, with Air & Cooling at 90%, Suspensions almost 90%, and even in Filtration, 36%.
Clearly, we have very good market shares in thermal and ICE application. As Olivier mentioned, aftermarket is a very resilient business, and we are developing the e-mobility market share and product each quarter with new products and new customers. The ESG activities, I will not spend too much time on it because we mentioned it during June.
We have continued to push our ESG activities all around the world, and we have been able to be certified in China with important certification both on energy, environment, safety, and quality. Clearly, we push this approach among all our plants because we do believe that these activities are really contributing to the business and the development of the commercial activities.
Some KPIs. I already presented them just to confirm that we are on track, and we continue to commit on it. Our ambition and our target is by 2025 to have 45% of our sales on e-mobility, 65% of our orders for e-mobility, and to switch the R&D spendings from ICE to e-mobility by 50% in 2025.
Now the market outlook. As you all know, it has been a strong Q3 from an activity point of view. Q4, to make it short, is full of uncertainty, not only for automotive or Sogefi but for the world. Right now we are almost end of October, and we have not seen a drop of volumes, and November and December will be key to understand where 2022 will land.
Currently, IHS is forecasting a full year at 6% growth versus 2021, with a Q4 at 2% when the nine-month are at 7%. It seems IHS has integrated, let's say, a slowdown of the growth versus 2021, especially in South America and Asia. As usual, of course, we take with great precaution this forecast.
We prefer to be ready for a lower market and then over-perform from a profitability point of view, rather than focusing, for example, in Europe at 14% growth in the last three months, and have a bad surprise. Nevertheless, as we have shown during Q3, if and when there will be a strong rebound, our organization is ready to respond to it. In the same time, our organization is also ready to absorb decreasing volumes, which will be key in the coming years.
To conclude on the outlook, and I'm sure you all read it very carefully, we have slightly adjusted our forecast for 2022, changing a very important sentence at the end, where we confirm and we commit, if there are no further serious activity deterioration, that we expect to achieve an operating result for the whole 2022, at least in line with 2021.
Of course, I'm sure it will be part of the questions that you may have at the end of the presentation. That's it for us. Thank you very much for your attention, and now we are at your disposal to answer to all your questions you may have at the end of the year or next year on the business.
Excuse me. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. To enter the queue for questions, please click on the Q&A icon on the left side of your screen and then press the Raise Your Hand button. Please do not mute your microphone locally, and when prompted, make sure you turn on your webcam in the pop-up window. If you are on the phone instead, please press Star and One on your keypad. The first question is from Monica Bosio with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
We cannot hear you.
We cannot hear you. We can see you, but not hear you. You are muted locally.
I think she's saying she will disconnect and reconnect.
Thank you. We will pass now to the next caller. The next question is from Martino De Ambroggi with Equita. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, Frédéric and Olivier. Probably I get the question coming from Monica. The guidance for the current year. If you could clarify your comment on Q4 in terms of orders visibility. You also commented that you are willing to discuss 2023, just your rough idea of what could happen, if you are willing to.
The second question also is on the price agreement that you set on prices achieved with your clients. I'm a bit surprised to see a net positive result in the nine months. What's your projection for raw material energy costs and pass through for the rest of the year and for next year? The third question is on the cost of debt.
You commented 55% is fixed, but what's your projection in terms of financial costs for next year, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the average cost?
Thank you, Martino. Yes. The visibility on Q2 activity, you remember in June I was very cautious on Q4, because usually December and November could be full of bad surprises from customers. As I was anticipating, now we are the 24th of October, and we don't have a sign or an indication or a forecast from customers that something will drop.
Nevertheless, the experience that we have with our customers is that it can happen very quickly and almost any time, not due to a demand issue on Q2 from customers, I think. It's more the supply chain of customers that may be impacted by a shortage of a supplier or something like that, and then they can close from one day to another. Right now, we don't see a big sign of decrease.
That's why my strategy is always the same: adapt to a low market or a market not growing too much, my fixed costs, the industrial layout. When, if the volumes are higher, we've got a good news, and we can communicate with you and our management with very good results. To make it clear, we are prepared for the worst, but it looks like right now the worst is not materializing on Q4.
For 2023, clearly it's very difficult right now to have a clear vision of what would be the activity of our customers. I think they are all in the process of building up their budget for next year with, again, a lot of uncertainty, both on the market, means the demand of cars, but also the supply chain and energy costs.
Right now we have not finalized our budget, so we don't have an accurate figure to give. But if I had to do, let's say, a macro assumption, I would not prepare for a strong increase of the market in 2023 versus 2022, and at the same time, not for a strong decrease, except a big event.
My sensation and my feeling is that to shoot for a flat market between 2023 and 2022 could be a good approach. I think in the next week we will have a clearer vision about that because customers will start to feed us with their forecast of first semester. Concerning the fair deals, and I said sustainable and fair deals we reach with our customers.
The first point that we have to keep in mind is, as I said, first, we have done the job internally. Because if you just go to the customers asking for 100% increase of the material and energy, it doesn't work with our customers, and basically, they would be right. First, we focused on doing the job internally, improving the efficiency of our product and our material.
In Air & Cooling and Filtration, there has been a tremendous job done on that topic. And it helped then to have deals with the customers and to share the pain, if I can say it like that, of the increase of material and energy. If we are positive in 2022, it doesn't mean that we have been able to pass through 110% of the increase of 2022.
It's just because last year, as you remember, there has been a lag between the increase of material in the last part of the year and the deals that we reached with the customers. It has to be seen on a two-year basis rather than on a one-year basis because the discussion started very late in January, February, and then it's an ongoing process.
Now to predict anything on 2023 on energy and material, I have to be very humble on that one. It's very difficult to predict. My belief is that we cannot predict what's gonna happen on energy and material in 2023, even if at one point we will have to take an assumption, but we can prepare for any scenario that can happen.
If scenario would be an increase of raw material, we now have the methodology and the systems in order to redo what we have done in 2022. At the opposite, if the index and material prices are starting to go down, then it will be discussion with our suppliers and customers. Same approach as we have done in 2022. When you look a bit at the index of the main raw materials we are consuming, it seems that for now, steel has stopped increasing. It's not decreasing a lot, but the index have started to decrease in the last part of the Q3.
The question is if it will continue or not, and I guess, and I think it will be very much linked to the energy prices because to produce steel, it's very much linked to energy prices for our suppliers. On other raw materials such as PA6 and PA66, so plastic components, right now the indices are not decreasing. We have to follow that in a very careful way. It's very unpredictable.
The question will be also the demand for next year because all these raw materials are also at one point linked to the demand. And if the demand is decreasing, the price may decrease in theory, except some special effects. On that one, my team and I, we are very ready. Whatever will be the scenario of 2023, we will have to apply the same discipline we had in 2022 in order to reach sustainable and fair deals with suppliers and customers. For the last one, Martino.
Frédéric, sorry to interrupt you. In the previous calls you were mentioning to be able to pass through 80% of cost increase. We can affirm today you are able to recover more or less 100% recovering also what you lost last year?
Well, it's not a perfect science because de facto it's based on negotiation because the contracts and the indexation are only giving a part of it and there is irrationality on the market right now between the index and the real price you are paying. When we say 80%, basically it was our track record then. The Q3 we have been able to reach 100%.
Now to say that each quarter or each year we will generate, we will be able to have 100% pass through, I think it's not possible to claim that or to say that because it's so unpredictable and everything is moving so fast, both on the market, suppliers and customers, that I prefer to have the approach to say that we have to do our homework to absorb as much as possible internally than to have fair discussion about the remaining part. We cannot, you know, predict that it will be 100% next year or 80%, but we now have this discipline, we now have the system, we have this approach, we have the customer relationship in order to be able to maximize this percentage.
I'm sorry, Martino, I'm not assuring in a sharp way to say, "Don't worry, whatever happens it will be 100%." It's just because it's impossible, nobody knows what will happen really to the market next year for energy and raw materials.
No, no, it's very clear. It seems to be better than the usual track record you had.
I was in a good shape in Q3 when, you know, the market is moving very fast. Our customers will have their own burden in next year also because there are the energy prices. There will be the salary inflation, both for our customers and for the market.
I think in the next week we will see based on all the index of material prices and energy are going, what will be the scenario of 2023 or at least the first part of 2023. Because it may be a year where there will be a scenario beginning of the year, then another scenario end of the year. I think it's all about to see a real trend on the raw material and energy. If it drops, then it will be a totally different dynamic.
If it remains stable, okay, and if it increase again, a totally different approach. As I was saying, I'm not able to predict perfectly what's gonna happen next year. I can just confirm that we are more than ready, we know what to do. Martino, for the last question, I will let Olivier answer because I think your last question was on the cost of debt, right?
Yes.
Okay.
Regarding the cost of debt, difficult for me to give you now our assumption in terms of rates for 2023. What I can say is that today, half of our debt, gross debt, so that means something around EUR 200 million, is at fixed rates on an average around a little bit below 3%. Then we have our debt with variable rate based on Euribor, with a spread, which is today around 2%, a little bit less than 2%. That gives you the information to make your own calculation if you need. I will not project for now what will be the Euribor of 2023. Okay, clear. Thank you.
The next question is from Monica Bosio with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. I hope you can now hear me. The first question is on the energy cost and on the manufacturing footprint. Are you planning any transfer of any production into some energy low energy cost countries? If it's yes, if you can comment on this. The second question is on the restructuring cost.
Can you give us an update on the restructuring costs expected for this year and maybe also for the next year, please? The third question is on the suspension business. It's roughly 5% EBITDA margin. I know that the situation is challenging because of the raw materials and whatever. I'm just wondering if you can if you have in mind a sustainable margin, one from three for the future for this division.
The very last is on the electric side. You gave us the quotation in terms of new mobility. Can you give us an indication of the weight of electric products on total revenues in 2021? I think it could be in the range of 15%-20%. Could be, could be a right indication. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Monica. First of all, yeah, the question on energy cost is very valid. We have not planned and forecasted transfers in emergency between our plants due to energy costs because it's very variable. Basically, Europe has not been affected the same way in each country. We have contracts in some countries. In other countries, the increase has been higher in 2022, but 2023 is not known.
We have not planned to do for now transfers linked to energy. Nevertheless, we have done our own work in 2022 about the footprint because as you all know, we closed a factory in Germany, Völklingen, which was a passenger car suspension factory consuming quite a lot of energy. This helps. It has been closed.
Let's say the operations have been stopped end of September, and transferred most of them to France. Now, I think we need more to focus on how to improve the process in each plant in order to consume less gas, less electricity, rather than to do transfers based on the information that we have today. Maybe in three months, maybe Germany will be cheaper than, I don't know, U.K. or France, because too much unknown.
The government supports are for now not totally clear in some of the countries. We do our own work from a footprint point of view in order to optimize the energy consumption. We do the homework from a process point of view, but no transfer in the rush, right now, too much uncertainty.
Especially in Suspensions, a transfer is not something so easy to do. Between the day we decide and the application, it's almost one year, and in one year the picture of energy costs can change a lot. Concerning, I don't know if I answered to your first question, Monica.
Yes, you did. Thank you.
Okay. On the restructuring then, the second question, restructuring 2022, because to speak about 2023 is a bit too soon. Olivier, maybe I let you give the figure to Monica.
Sure. Last year we had a restructuring cost of minus EUR 8 million. This year we will be in the area of EUR 12 million. Mainly due to the closure of our footprint in Kidderminster in the U.K., which has been announced, where we have to deal with pension schemes and we already talk about it during the previous presentation. Difficult to give you more insight, but you have there the main bulk.
Thank you, Olivier.
Cheers.
Suspensions. Your question is more than valid because Air & Cooling and Filtration are performed in a quite good way. The homework has been done. On Suspensions, this percentage of EBIT is clearly not acceptable in order to generate on the long term, cash and value for the shareholders and stockholders. Especially in Suspensions Europe.
Here in 2023, but already end of 2022, we have to do our homework from a fixed cost point of view, material consumption point of view and energy point of view. If we look at Suspensions to say that we remain at the same level as last year, looks like a failure because there has been no improvement. In fact, Suspensions has been affected this year by many storms.
There has been the steel increase, there has been the energy increase that affect directly Suspensions. Plus we had to manage the growth of Romania, which is still a young plant with many projects under development. 2022 has been all about to avoid the worst and to deteriorate the profitability of Suspensions worldwide.
Nevertheless, in Europe, clearly we will have to do our homework and to totally turn around because with 5% EBIT, you do not generate cash. My feeling and my perception or my calculation is that in order to be sustainable, we should improve the EBIT by many points.
Due to the heaviness of the process of the product, where to do change takes more time than in our cooling and filtration because it's a safety part of course, for a car, there won't be a miracle from one day to another. Means we won't improve the EBIT by 10% in one year. Nevertheless, we need to focus in order to improve each year by 2, 3, 4 percentage points in order to have a real plan by the next three to four years to have an acceptable level like in the other business units. In Suspensions we will have many things to do at the same time. As you all know, we already launched the closure of UK too. The second plant where we have started the process to close.
Our plan is to be able to close it by next year, September, and then we will have to do improvement on the French plants in order to be sustainable on the long term and to improve Romanian facility and to make it viable and sustainable on the long term. Basically, it's a plant where we have a lot of hope because the process has a lot of capacity.
It's a brand-new plant. The customers are requesting to leverage on this plant in order to grow. We now need to make it happen in the next 18 months. Your question is very valid because Suspensions, we are not proud of the current profitability. For EV, it depends. I said I don't know if you said EV or e-mobility, Monica.
It depends if you look only at EV or e-mobility, the percentage. When you mentioned 15%, it was not EV alone. It's what we call e-mobility. Including the hybrid too.
Yes. It's e-mobility.
On e-mobility, the range, it depends because in EV it's very easy to measure. On hybrid, it's a bit more tricky because when you deliver to the customers, you don't exactly know for suspension and some applications in North America, if it's used for a hybrid application or a thermal application.
Basically, we are currently between, but it changes quarter to quarter between 10% and 15%, based on the hybrid mix of our customers. On pure EV right now, we are low, basically because we are close to 2%-3%. Of course it's increasing year after year, or quarter after quarter once the customers start to really launch the EV applications with higher volumes.
Okay, very clear. Thank you very much. Thank you. I come back to the video. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from Gabriele Gambarova with Banca Akros. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you for taking my questions. I hope you can hear me.
Yes.
Okay. The first one is on slide nine, the bridge. There is this squeeze item. I was wondering if you can give me the two gross components, so price increase and higher costs that give you the balance EUR 1.4. The second one is on free cash flow, EUR 55 million in the first nine months. I was wondering what do you expect for 2022? Because I saw that there was EUR 5 million cash absorption, if I'm not wrong, in Q3. Yes. I was wondering what you see for the whole year? The third one is on the tax rate. Very nice. I would say it touched below 30% in the nine months of 2022.
I was wondering if you can share with us your expectations for 2022 and possibly even for the following year. For the time being, that's it.
Okay. Regarding the tax rates, well, in 2023, we will have some restructuring operations, impossible for me today to forecast precisely what it will be. Because as you know, when we are making a restructuring, some costs may not be fully deductible. We will see at the time. Regarding your question on the cash absorption, we have been able to manage our working capital increase via the factoring. That's a tool we will continue to use in Q4.
For the time being, our target is to deliver the same level of cash than last year, using this tool to reach our target. I don't see any reason not to reach our target. The cash will not be an issue to reach this target. We have enough factoring agreement or enough flexibility to handle it. Regarding the gross value of the price increase, Frédéric, do you want to disclose the amount? Maybe it's a bit touchy with regards to our customer.
It is. It is.
Okay.
Not sure. I don't know if it's something we
No. I mean, if it is too, I mean, if it's something you want to keep for you, I perfectly understand.
It's possible, yeah. These are your customers.
Yes.
competitors.
Yes. No, I would rather ask you something else. Regarding the level of inventories, your clients' level of inventories, I mean, how do you see it? How do you see them, I mean, it's a high level, a low level, now it's a reasonable level? Just, let's say directionally, directional comment on that.
Yeah, the question is very valid. The inventory levels are high at the customers. Q3 has been very strong from a production point of view. But when you look at the sales of the customers, there is a spread between the production and the sales. This is the first indication. I'm sure you will be able to collect the data, but there has been a strong spread in the Q3 between production and sales of our customers.
We know that we have strong inventories. I think that the situation of energy and shortage of components is pushing maybe the customers to do it in order to be able to continue to deliver cars if there is a big issue with a supplier or energy prices or something like that.
At the same time, when you want to order a new car and when you want to purchase a new car, you still have to wait for most of the customers between 12 and 18 months. It's not clear for me totally, if the pipeline accumulating during the COVID time and just after the COVID, where the time to wait was very long, has been totally absorbed or not.
Yes, we have inventories, but at the same time, the queue to get a car is very long. To me, it's very difficult to understand. Yes, a lot of inventories. When it will decrease, and if it will decrease, I'm not able to say, to be honest.
That's why I was saying everything is possible in December by the customers because they have inventories in hand in the over, but they don't want to miss a sale, so they like now to keep a lot of inventories too.
Maybe the model of low inventories at customers may have changed with everything that they have faced in the last 24 months, and it looks like they now prefer to keep high inventories. My feeling. I don't know if the decrease of inventory will be in 2022, maybe not in 2023, but we have more inventories than before the COVID and the shortage of raw material.
Okay. Thank you very much, Frédéric and Olivier.
Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press Q&A on the last bar and send your request or press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Ronald Cohen with Value Holdings. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning from my side. Thanks for taking my question. Hopefully you can hear and see me. First of all, congratulations to great results in these circumstances, especially on the cost management of raw materials and the other costs. Just to find. In Germany, we would say the hair in the soup. Looking at your outperformance of roughly 400 basis points on the sales side and looking at the volume in the markets and your volumes, there we see underperformance of 7.5% versus the 3.4%.
Just looking at your customer base on your product or on the outlook of your customers, what would you suggest for the coming quarters in terms of outperformance of Sogefi against the market?
Thank you, Ronald, for the question. Yeah. I have on the screen our customers, basically the top 10 of our customers. When you look at the performance of the customers in Q3 and even in 2022 versus 2021, Toyota is performing very, very well versus last year and versus 2019.
Volkswagen is going not too bad. Then you have the others which versus 2021 are suffering some more, and especially versus 2019, which was a little pre-COVID. To make it clear, we are very small with Toyota currently, and Volkswagen in the mix of our customer is not in the top 5 of our customers.
Yes, we may had suffered from a mix, customer mix, and slash product mix, versus the market in Q3. If we look overall on nine months, basically we are very, very close to the market, if I may. The question is also internally at the customers. As you all know, in 2022, they have done strong mix change inside their product portfolio that they were not so used to do. It's linked to the profitability of some cars for rent. It's linked also to their inventory policy or demand that they may have.
To answer in a few words about potential underperformance versus the market is quite tough because you have so many parameters, so many customers and so many projects that we don't see any big reason to say, "Okay, we have underperformed the market." I think it's very volatile right now. To be able to judge if we are overperforming or underperforming, it has to be looked on a 24-month period rather than on a quarterly, if I may roll on, because it's crazy. The fluctuation in the mix of our customers currently is very, very high. Then at the end it gives you an average, which may be a bit tricky to analyze on a short period.
If I may, in Q3, there was also an effect related to aftermarket. The production in Europe was up 35% and our aftermarket revenue were growing healthily, north of 10%. Of course, they were not following the production in Europe. In Europe, our aftermarket were well below 35% growth, and this is explained part of our underperformance.
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks a lot for these explanations. It's just a minor, really minor critical point. I see your figures and again, congratulations to all the things you're
Okay. Great result.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Bye.
The next question is a follow-up from Martino De Ambroggi with Equita. Please go ahead.
Yeah, two quick quantitative questions. The first is on CapEx, if you could provide the usual update on this year and why not next year. The second is probably more complicated, but just to remind us, what are the main blocks of the bridge in operating profitability next year? Because I remember the shutdown of the two plants should have added EUR 4 or EUR 5 million in terms of EBIT next year. The ramp up in Romanian plant an additional EUR 4 million. I don't know if these figures are still valid and if there is any other block to be added, maybe also on the negative side for next year profitability.
CapEx, Olivier, I don't know if we will be more accurate, but right now we are very close to last year level. Basically considering the tooling, we are at 66 versus 68, and we plan basically to finish 2023 with the same trend, even if the CapEx nature has not been at all the same. Basically, in 2022, it has been a lot about CapEx for new for e-mobility, new product of e-mobility, tooling for e-mobility, programs that on which we have been awarded, and energy efficiency. We changed somehow the structure of our CapEx even if the level is close to last year. We have adapted to the new environment, also investing on energy savings in order to prepare 2023.
For the budget of 2023, I think it's a bit too soon. If we look at the high level approach, everybody, all the industries, all the companies in the world, next year will have to face a higher inflation than usual on the salary increase. Right now it's much too soon to say what it will be for 2023 for Sogefi, but I think it's not just a topic for Sogefi. Usually, I don't know, it was 1%, 2%. Well, 2023, we all know it will be somehow different. One of the challenge for all companies in Europe will be the salary increase impact. Second big topic to take in consideration, it's energy.
Energy right now, it's very difficult to know exactly the impact of energy prices for 2023, but for sure it will be one of the main chapter of next year. As you mentioned, we will have the full year impact of Germany closure. So, nine months versus this year in addition. Plus U.K., as I mentioned, should be closed, let's say, by the end of Q3 next year. The restructuring that we launched this year on other items will generate positive carryover to next year.
This basically will be the big balances, and then we will have to do the job internally from an efficiency point of view, both in variable costs and fixed costs, in order to be able to absorb the potential inflation impact and the potential pressure that we may have on the prices or raw material or sales price. These are the big bridge, if I may say like that, Martino. To give accurate figures right now, it's a bit too soon, because we are in the process to build up all this information for next year. It's somehow a special budget because the uncertainty is very high.
If you simulate the impact of energy, if you would have done it four weeks ago, it's a totally different figure than to do it today and the day after. Even if, as I mentioned, we are not exposed 100% because we have contracts and long-term contracts, but you have variability. I think it's better to wait 6 weeks in order to have a more clear approach, let's say, of what will be 2023 big impact.
Yeah, that's clear. Just on the shutdown of the plants, the EUR 4.5 million positive impact commented in previous calls is confirmed?
Yeah. Full year, it's okay. Without considering energy price delta, because it was the original business plan. It depends how you calculate it, because now that we closed Germany, basically, if we had to redo the simulation, it looks even higher. But it's something virtual, because basically, if we would not have closed it, we'd have paid a lot more for energy than if we had kept it. But the range is still very valid, yes. UK plant closure is underway, both with the unions, customers, and process point of view. I don't expect a delay compared to the target next year.
Thank you.
For any further questions, please press Q&A on the left bar and raise your hand or press star one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Thank you very much for your attendance and your active participation. It has been a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you again. Let's see each other, I think if I remember well, in a few months now for Q4 and full year presentation. Thank you. Have a nice day.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Bye.
Bye.
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